Savanth Sebastian

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The housing sector certainly seems to have finished off 2016 with a bang. Home prices surged by 1.4 per cent in December, according to CommSec's latest economic update report.
But it was more encouraging to see that the lift in home prices was more uniform across the capital cities, and even regional house prices recorded a healthy lift.
No doubt the improvement in economic conditions and low interest rates continues to fuel the interest in property.
Resource states noted a decent lift in prices over December.
And looking forward the lift in commodity prices may mean that the mining towns have come through the worst of the downturn.
Overall policymakers will keep a close eye on the housing sector the early part of 2017, and will prefer to see more balanced house price growth across the nation.
And in particular a further lift in regional house prices would be a positive outcome.
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Annual growth in home prices across regional centres is still just 2.8 per cent.
Global oil prices have risen steeply over the past couple of months, however motorists across some capital cities are still enjoying petrol at or below the cost price (terminal gate price).
In Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide pump prices are around $1.21-$1.23 a litre – only 3-5 cents above wholesale prices.
Essentially motorists using fuel discount dockets will be buying petrol below cost.
The low petrol prices are not sustainable and prices in these capital cities are likely to lift markedly in coming days.
Interestingly in Brisbane and Canberra, prices are closer to a $1.30 a litre, while prices in Perth are closer to $1.40 a litre.
The production cuts announced by OPEC and non-OPEC nations were the first in 15 years and highlight the underlying concern about over-supplied oil markets.
The focus now shifts to see if oil producers comply with the stated production cuts.
The early indications are that producers are already notifying customers in Asia, Europe and the US of cuts to oil deliveries from January.
Importantly for motorists it means higher pump prices in the medium-term.
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The latest Australian manufacturing data is encouraging, suggesting that the current levels of interest rates and the Australian dollar are working in favour of domestic producers.
No doubt the sector is also benefitting from the stronger demand associated with the improved performance of the global economy.
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices surged by 1.4 per cent in December and was up 10.9 per cent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 1.1 per cent in November and were just 2.8 per cent higher than a year ago. (Regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of November).
In capital cities, house prices rose by 1.4 per cent in December while apartment prices fell by 0.3 per cent.
House prices were up 11.6 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 5.9 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $650,000 and the average unit price was $536,000.
Dwelling prices rose in five of the eight capital cities in December: Hobart (up 3.3 per cent), Melbourne (up 3.1 per cent), Perth (up 1.4 per cent), Sydney (up 0.9 per cent), and Brisbane (up 0.6 per cent). Prices fell in Adelaide (down 2.0 per cent), followed by Canberra (down 0.3 per cent) and Darwin (down 0.1 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 15.5 per cent); followed by Melbourne (up 13.7 per cent), Hobart (up 11.2 per cent); Canberra (up 9.3 per cent); Adelaide (up 4.2 per cent), Brisbane (up 3.6 per cent) and Darwin (up 0.9 per cent). Prices fell in Perth (down by 4.3 per cent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings rose by 14.7 per cent in calendar year 2016 with houses up 15.3 per cent on a year earlier and units up 10.4 per cent.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 1.2 points to 55.4 in December. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding.
AIG notes “Six of the seven activity sub-indexes in the Australian PMI® improved from November. Strong expansions in new orders (60.6 points) and sales (58.8 points) continued in December, while exports surged ahead (68.5 points), Production (58.2 points) also expanded more strongly while deliveries (52.4 points) continued to grow.
Employment (47.4 points) slipped in December, in line with recently weaker jobs growth. Five of the eight sub-sectors in the Australian PMI® expanded in December (three month moving averages).”
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“Comments from manufacturers in December indicate that demand (albeit somewhat mixed) appears to be improving again after a weak patch in the latter half of 2016.
The recovery in commodity prices has led to better conditions for manufacturers exposed to the mining sector, with some revival of mining investment and maintenance spending.
However, surging energy costs, weaker local demand and slower spending on particular major projects is depressing activity for some manufacturers.”
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at a 14-month high of 118.4 cents a litre, up by 1.8 cents a litre over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 115.1 cents a litre, up by 1.2 cents a litre over the previous week.
On Friday, the key Singapore gasoline price stood at a 16-month high of US$69.76 a barrel, up by US$1.66 or 2.4 per cent over the week.
In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.94 a barrel or 3.1 per cent to $96.82 a barrel or 60.89 cents a litre.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 121.2c; Melbourne 123.1c; Brisbane 129.8c; Adelaide 121.6c; Perth 138.9c; Canberra 127.7c; Darwin 129.3c; Hobart 128.7c.
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP).
National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions.
AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
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The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge.
The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading.
The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
Petrol prices are headed higher. And given that petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase that most families make, higher pump prices may serve to restrain growth in spending.
If home prices lift too quickly policymakers will once again raise concerns about the need for a further tightening in lending standards.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for CommSec.
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Major city home prices soar and mining towns get through the worst: Savanth Sebastian

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The Reserve Bank Governor’s commentary was similar to the Monetary Policy Statement released a fortnight ago.
However his comments today provided more clarity and reinforced our view that interest rates are likely to remain on hold over the next 12 months.
Interestingly the question and answer time highlighted the pragmatic approach the central bank takes in discussing an array of topical issues.
When prompted by parliamentarians about the discussion in the recent Reserve Bank Board meeting on the neutral cash rate, the Governor highlighted that markets will always react to what is said, but the decision to discuss the neutral cash rate setting at the July Board meeting was made earlier this year.
And the message that the Governor wanted to get across was that “it was a reasonable assumption that the next move in interest rates was up rather than down but it is some time away” and the neutral setting for the economy is lower than where it has been in the past.
The Governor made comments on business investment saying it was being held back by a range of uncertainties such as global politics and some domestic policy settings.
Given the strength in the business conditions, the central bank has “been looking for a strong pick-up in private business investment outside the resources sector. This is taking longer to occur than expected”.
And the RBA believes that this reluctance to commit to significant investment could possibly continue for some time yet.
No doubt the level of commitment by businesses to invest in the economy will be watched very closely by policymakers and be a key metric in the outlook for interest rates.
Interestingly, there was a lot of robust discussion on a variety of issues ranging from the mechanisms to control house prices, the growth of household debt, payments systems, Australia’s infrastructure spending, the benefits of a lower Australian dollar, even the cost of electricity prices, penalty rates and tax reform.
Certainly there is a lot that is occupying policymaker thoughts at present.
Overall the Reserve Bank Governor was more optimistic on the medium term outlook for the Australian economy.
Highlighting that even when it comes to mining investment the pullback is almost complete.
The focus now is to ensure an ongoing lift in non-mining business investment to support medium term growth objectives.
CommSec expects no change to interest rates over next year.
Below are the comments Philip Lowe made in regards to various topics.
On economic assessments, "There has been an improvement in survey-based measures of business conditions and capacity utilisation has increased.
“Employment growth has also picked up and retail spending has been a bit stronger of late. Financial conditions remain favourable, with interest rates remaining low and banks willing to lend”.
“In summary, our central scenario is for GDP to grow at an average of around 3 per cent over the next couple of years.
“This would be better than we have seen for some time.”
On business investments, “For some time we have been looking for a strong pick-up in private business investment outside the resources sector.
“This is taking longer to occur than expected.
“While we do see positive signs in parts of the economy, many firms still show some reluctance to commit to significant investment, often citing a range of uncertainties.
“It is possible that this reluctance will continue for a while yet.
“But it is also possible that the improvement in business conditions that we have seen will give firms the confidence to invest more, after a period of under-investment.
“We have incorporated a middle path into our own forecasts.”
On the household sector, “There is an adjustment going on, with many people getting used to lower growth in their real wages.
“Many now see this as more than just a temporary development, with wage increases of 2 point something per cent now the norm.
“In my view, the underlying drivers of the slower wage growth in Australia are much the same as we are seeing overseas.
“At the same time, the household sector is also dealing with higher levels of debt relative to income.
“Higher electricity prices are also affecting household budgets.
“This all means that consumer spending behaviour is something we continue to watch carefully.”
On economic transitions, “The transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is now almost complete.
“This means that falling levels of mining investment will not be a drag on the economy for much longer.
“Instead, with some large LNG projects reaching completion soon, GDP growth is expected to be boosted by a lift in LNG exports”.
On China, “In China, growth has surprised on the upside a little of late.
“The main challenge there continues to be containing the risks from the build-up of debt, while at the same time keeping growth on a steady path.
“This remains a work in progress.”
When asked about the outlook for wages Philip Lowe replied that he hopes to see the annual wage grow by 3.5% over time, inflation 2.5% and productivity 1%.
He also believes that we should be capable of achieving “3-point-something” annual wage growth.
On wage growth he said, “There is an adjustment going on, with many people getting used to lower growth in their real wages.”
“Signs wages are picking up for some construction and IT jobs due to stronger demand for workers”.
He also stated that it was up to the Government to improve structural things such as tax policy, competition policy and education reform.
On prudential housing measures he stated, “I think we have done enough for the time being.”
He reasonably assumed that the next move in interest rates is up, “but quite some time away,” however the average cash rate in the future will be lower than in the past due to lower real rate.
On the level of household debt Philip Lowe stated, “We are cognisant of the high level of household debt and take it into consideration when deciding on policy.”
In terms of inequality he believes that Australia is doing better than other countries and while the productivity is not growing fantastically, it is not doing bad either.
For prices he says that there are lots of prices in the consumer price index that are weak such as food and clothing.
Energy prices are affecting business investment; household budgets and will affect CPI.
He also commented about full time employment saying that an unemployment rate as somewhere around 5%, but he doesn’t see that happening in the next three years.
The latest comments from the Reserve Bank Governor support the view that interest rate settings will be stable for some time yet.
While Governor Lowe said that had a number of areas are being watched closely, from the strength in Chinese demand, to rising Australian dollar, investment and rising household debt.
There are no signs of imminent action on rates.
Savanth Sebastian is a senior economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Savanth Sebastian

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