Retail Market

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63192/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Retail sales data showed growth in the sector falling flat last week, and it remains a tough time to be a retailer in Australia.
Overall, shoppers are expecting more for less, abandoning any sense of loyalty. However, there are bright sparks of success in the moribund sector that point towards what works and what doesn’t in making profits in retail.
Australia’s overall inflation, currently at historical lows, is only kept above zero by the increasing prices of services like health and education, not by retail goods. Retail staples like food, clothing and footwear are all cheaperthan this time last year. Price competition, and pressure on margins in the grocery and clothing markets is intense.
The deflation in “food and non-alcoholic beverages” prices recently reported by the ABS can be most readily explained by the Aldi effect. Aldi’s continued expansion throughout regional Australia and continued push westward to South Australia and Western Australia is playing havoc with the retail margins of both Coles and Woolworths. Both have fallen to around 4.7 percent of sales as price declines have been outstripped by operational cost efficiencies. The major challenge for both Coles and Woolworths, however, is to address the fundamental difference in their cost of doing business versus the lean operations of Aldi.
<a href="/images/2016/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-07%20at%209.05.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-07%20at%209.05.55%20AM.png" alt="">
Away from groceries, as the seasons turn, Australia’s bulging wardrobes continue to make room for yet more clothes and shoes. Despite this, prices are falling. In clothing and footwear, deflation is better explained by the ascendant online marketplace and consumer preferences, shopping traits and experiences.
Overall online clothing retail sales growth continues to far outstrip bricks and mortar retail, with small online retailers (sales less than A$2.5 million) seeing strong growth of more than 20 percent per annum on the back of more agile systems and shopper convenience.
<h2>Green shoots</h2>
Looking below the “sectoral” numbers to some examples of individual businesses provides some interesting evidence of these trends - both supportive and contradictory.
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Online surfwear and sportswear retailer Surfstich, for example, saw its share price savaged after it posted a massive loss on the back of a flagging acquisition strategy and management upheavals. In a closely related market, however, Kathmandu is performing relatively well, flagging higher margins and earnings to come. CEO Xavier Simonet attributes these outcomes to “product newness and careful management of promotional activity” – basically selling a more narrow range of more appreciated goods with less discounting.
Premier Investments continues to outperform. Controlled by Solomon Lew and led by the colourful former CEO of David Jones, Mark McInnes, Premier seems to have the right portfolio of products and store-based and online business strategies to maintain growth and margins. Its Smiggle business is a case in point. It sells cheap things at high prices to a demographic of adoring tweens, while the quality Peter Alexander brand works as a sales generating all-rounder in the family clothing sector.
Another somewhat bright spot seems to be Kogan – the online electronics retailer that recently listed on the ASX. It is a business that is hard to categorise. It has a portfolio of own-branded electronics, operates a channel of grey imported products from its offshore subsidiary, and is branching into services including travel. Trading at a discount to its IPO, it is fair to say the market is watching with interest rather than enthusiasm before it decides on the longevity of this idiosyncratic retailer.
One of the most resilient of retailers, Harvey Norman, also reported last week. Its result was stellar and its share price soared. Sceptics wonder, though, how much of this can be attributed the the exit of Dick Smith and the rather topsy housing market which all but the most optimistic spruiker sees at or near its zenith.
Both Premier and Kogan point to an emerging trend – innovation matters in retail more than ever. Strong growth among small online retailers is showing consumers want variety and novelty in their baskets and wardrobes rather than generic and cheap (or worse, generic and expensive). Globally, firms like Threadless (a T-shirt company whose customers design its logos) are trying new things and creating products that appeal to narrow yet loyal customer groups. In Australia, niche online retailers like Babes in the Shade are showing they have a business model that can work over time.
But innovation is both risky and expensive. More often than not supermarket trialled novelties do not last, with the same true in clothing and elsewhere. This can explain the emergence of firms like Premier Investments that combine retail smarts, relatively deep pockets and novel ideas. Premier can afford the odd disaster when balanced with successes like Smiggle.
In the future, we expect more innovation and variety and thus more turblulence in the sector. Occasional narrow-brand innovators like Noni B will succeed, but a more likely model for success will be the porfolio players. They can ride out the ups and downs of retail’s various sub-markets and sustain profitability and growth.
John Rice is professor of management, University of New England and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-rice-93120" target="_blank">here</a>.
Nigel Martin is lecturer, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. he can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nigel-martin-117971" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Company results wrap: retail sales flat, but some retailers buck the trend

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GUEST OBSERVER
Pop-up shops may have started as a way to derive temporary rent from opportunistic tenants. But today the concept is a permanent fixture in many retail management strategies.
Demand for pop-up spaces from retailers is strong, given the lower risk and minimal capital required compared with a standard lease. 
For new or incubator retailers, the appeal is obvious: minimising costs is important for any business starting out.
Established retailers are increasingly using pop-up stores to test new concepts and experiment with new approaches.
But what about the benefits to landlords?
Pop-ups have always been around as temporary income generators for vacant tenancies. The rationale was that income, albeit short term, and activation is better than a hoarding that screams unwanted space.
This strategy was predicated by the ultimate objective of securing a long term tenant.
However, given demand for these spaces, select centres can actually dedicate a high value space to a pop-up or revolving retail concept instead of looking for a permanent tenant.
It’s a valid strategy if all the pieces fit. When executed well, pop-ups can drive a sense of urgency in purchasing behaviour and inject life into the centre. 
Pop-up retailers that build brand buzz take care of the marketing leg work and can amplify the centre’s reach. Short term sales can be more productive and monthly rentals above market, even with some downtime.
Of course there are challenges, including high labour intensity to curate, downtime risk and the valuation impact of not having a permanent lease in place.
The key to success is in the execution. First, the tenancy must be appealing. A pop-up is no solution for a plagued tenancy.
It should use flexible, movable fixtures that can be stored, with clever signage solutions that can be changed cost effectively. A flexible lighting solution is essential.
Landlords could consider partnering with someone who can curate the space in line with guiding principles. Urban market operators often have ties to incubator retailers.
A branding concept could be considered for the space, with engaging marketing helping to fill the space during downtime, giving people a reason to use it.
It’s also important to see the commitment through. If a landlord commits to a pop-up or revolving retail concept for a tenancy, they must frequently swap the offer. If a particular retailer is performing well, convert them to a permanent deal elsewhere in the centre, as was the case with Doughnut Time at Central Park Mall in Sydney.
Doughnut Time launched to the Sydney market via a 15sqm pop up at Central Park and, having successfully tested the market and delivered very strong sales, has now been converted to a high value 400 sqm permanent tenancy.
The new Doughnut Time tenancy will also showcase Alfredo’s, another new brand to the Sydney market. Alfredo’s is a hip pizza concept out of Brisbane by Doughnut Time founder Damien Griffiths. 
The new tenancy, incorporating the two strong concepts, will be open by October 2016. It’s a prime example of the flow-on benefits of a well-executed pop-up retail strategy.
Pop-ups can add real value to a retail centre and provide for a better customer experience. If you can accept or mitigate the challenges, then the concept of a permanent revolving retail tenancy can be an exciting and profitable one. 
Felicity Armstrong is retail asset manager, Frasers Property Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.frasersproperty.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Pop-up and revolving retail: here to stay

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63317/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Supermarkets have moved quickly to capitalise on a growth of inner city dwellers with smaller houses but some retailers like Walmart, Tesco, Morrisons and even Woolworths are back peddling due to the risks.
With the rise of smaller one and two bedroom apartments with smaller kitchens and an abundance of restaurants, bistros and cafes that amass inner-city streets, consumers are accordingly purchasing groceries more frequently, up to three times per week and in smaller volumes.
Convenience store growth, online grocery sales and the aggressive expansion of discounters like Aldi, have progressively changed shopping behaviour, encouraging regular top-up shopping rather than weekly one-stop shops. As a result, the big four UK grocery retailers now run more convenience stores like Tesco Express, Tesco Metro, Sainsbury’s Local and M Local, than full-line supermarkets. Woolworths have also dipped their toe cautiously into the convenience market.
<h2>The challenge of convenience</h2>
While the convenience market proposes opportunities for large supermarkets, it also presents risks. The attractiveness of lower build, fit out and leasing costs associated with opening smaller store formats, is weighed against less space and accordingly, less range. Misreading the needs of the local market and getting that range wrong, will negatively impact on sales.
The costs associated with running convenience are significantly higher than large format supermarkets. Wage costs in convenience stores can hover above 13 percent, whereas a full-line supermarket can run on less 9% wages to sales. Waste, shrinkage and other operating expenses are inflated as a result of lower sales.
Competition is ferocious. While a supermarket may compete with another neighbouring supermarket, supermarket run convenience stores may find themselves in direct competition with local delicatessens, bakeries, butcheries, news agencies, all vying for the best locations and customers’ dollar.
<h2>Eating themselves alive</h2>
There are no switching costs in grocery retailing and shoppers today are not mortgaged to any food retailer. This lack of shopper loyalty has driven UK supermarkets to ultimately cannibalise their own sales by rushing to open smaller format stores.
By opening convenience stores on high streets, transit hubs and inner-city areas, the supermarkets have encouraged consumers to shop more frequently for groceries, rather than doing the one big weekly shop.
Today, shoppers now pop into the convenience store to purchase their evening meal on the way home from work, shop in a supermarket for non-perishable foods and then drop into a discounter like Aldi for a bargains. While a move into convenience and smaller store formats make sense, supermarkets should be aware of the risks ever present.
<h2>Abandoning the small store strategy</h2>
In response to an aggressive rollout of small format stores and the protracted price wars, Tesco announced it would review its fleet of stores. It closed 43, 18 of which were Tesco Express convenience stores and 12 smaller Tesco Metro urban stores. Similarly, UK grocery chain Morrisons also moved to closed around 10 convenience stores.
In the US, Walmart announced the closure [over 100 Walmart Express stores] [https://blog.walmart.com/business/20160115/doug-mcmillon-answers-questions-about-sharpened-focus-on-stores], citing a return to the big retail store format.
Here in Australia, four Woolworths metro stores are targeted for closure with the renewal of leases of a further five stores in jeopardy.
It appears Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci has taken a leaf out of the play bookof Morrisons' Chairman Andy Higginson’s , who said he now wants Morrisons to focus on its supermarkets. Banducci’s briefing to the market illustrated a returned focus on Woolworths’ core business of supermarkets and liquor.
The strategy involved slashing ranges of tiered private label products, closing under performing stores, [increasing productivity and cutting costs.] [https://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-ceo-brad-banducci-unveils-growth-aspirations-20160606-gpctce.html]. It’s a smart strategy indeed that will lead to a leaner, meaner, agile Woolworths in the years ahead.
Gary Mortimer is associate professor, Queensland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gary-mortimer-1322" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Big retailers are realising the risk of moving into convenience stores

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The far north coast of New South Wales has seen strong demand for properties with a strong tenant profile at the mid to upper levels of the market.
The lower end of the market has seen increased interest from owner occupiers which reduces the need for a strong tenant profile, according to valuers Herron Todd White.
The most significant change was noted along the coastal strip with the stand out performer being Byron Bay.
"The rest of the coastal strip has also performed well," the report noted.
Inland, retail areas have also seen growth albeit more modest.
Coastal localities have seen growth as a result of increasing rents and strengthening yields, while inland localities have tended to have little movement in rents and growth as a result of slightly stronger yields (driven by owner occupier.)
The sales evidence falls broadly within the following ranges:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/11/lismore%201.jpg" alt="">
Non-coastal locations have had relatively stable rents over the past two years. Retail has been adversely affected in Lismore as a result of the March 2017 flood with increased vacancies.
Rents have held but there is a risk of a downturn.
Coastal localities have been predominantly stable with the exception of Byron Bay, with strong demand, limited supply, upward pressure on rents, and reported incidences of key money.
A strata shop located in the heart of the Lismore CBD has been listed for sale recently with $275,000 hopes (pictured below).
<a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-retail-nsw-lismore-502683098" target="_blank">Situated at 154 Molesworth Street</a>, the three suites comprising of 76 square metres.
The floor area is 76 square metre.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/11/molesworth%20st%20lismore.jpg" alt="">
The rental evidence falls broadly within the following ranges:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/11/lismore%202.jpg" alt="">
A Lismore retail space in the middle of Moleswoth St between Woodlark and Magellan Sts currently on the rental market is priced at $4,800 per month plus GST.
Great exposure to vehicle and pedestrian traffic, <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-retail-nsw-lismore-502747606" target="_blank">the 100 Molesworth Street property</a> comes with 108 square metres of retail (which could be extended) plus 78.5 square metres of office/storage space.
There is also a loft of approximately 20 square metres, rear lane access and two allocated car spaces.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/11/lismore%20lease%20.jpg" alt="">
"Traditionally, the market in northern New South Wales has followed the trend of Sydney to a certain extent with a time lag.
"Sydney and Melbourne’s markets have exhibited softening in demand and uncertainty in relation to value," it noted adding the New South Wales far north coast was a great place to live (good weather, strong tourist destination, solid and stable economy). The increasing population will assist in maintaining strong growth and increased market depth.
"The growth in residential supply will help to underpin local industries.
"Funds are being invested in infrastructure and facilities.
"Owner occupiers and more investors are trying to secure premises to operate businesses at low-interest rates."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Byron Bay retail picks up: HTW

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The retail market on the Sunshine Coast has generally reflected the overall retail markets of south-east Queensland over the past three year period, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) commercial report.
The valuation firm took a look at the changing faces in the retail sector across the nation. 
"We have seen very strong yield compression for national tenant type holdings appealing to a larger regional style market," the report noted.
"We have also seen some investors begin to change their overall offer for stand alone holdings where appropriate and there’s been a re-positioning of some centres, primarily with a new focus towards food and entertainment offerings."
Several small neighbourhood centres in secondary overall locations have placed café-style tenants as primary tenants and have used these as the main draw to fill surrounding tenancies if the café tenant gets a strong following.
There has been a mix of hits and misses with this approach to date, which mainly fluctuates on the quality of the food tenant.
A former bulky goods type retail centre in Maroochydore opposite the southern entrance to Sunshine Plaza has also begun to reposition along the same lines, it noted.
"Recent placement of a health food supermarket, gym and two café-style operators has begun to change the dynamic of the centre, which had significant vacancies over the past three year period."
HTW noted the Ocean Street precinct had remained strong over the past two years, which is another area that has centred on a food and entertainment offering.
The Sunshine Plaza extension is also continuing which will add a David Jones and Big W to the overall offer.
The expansion will see the centre increase to 107,000 square metres with a further 100 specialties as well as a renovation of the existing facility and addition of 1,500 car parks.
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Café-style tenants becoming major drawcards for Sunshine Coast retail cenres: HTW

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The majority of shopping centre managers polled for a recent survey expect turnover growth for the year ahead, with traditional bricks and mortar retail outlets, online sales and the economy as possible hinderances to future growth.
Some 55 percent of respondents to JLL’s Retail Centre Managers' Survey for February expect turnover growth in the year ahead, up from 51 percent in the previous survey six months ago, concerns remained from shopping centre managers about the economy.
JLL’s Australia head of property &amp; asset management Richard Fennell said the big change since the August 2015 Survey was the impact of fuel prices.  
"Fuel prices are at or near seven year lows, meaning the average motorist is spending significantly less on fuel and this could translate to more disposable income for other items such as retail goods and services," he said.
“However the volatility in the share market and low commodity prices are still cause for concern.
“Centre Managers continue to show concern with the economic outlook, with a net balance of -20 highlighting this as a factor that could impact turnover in 2016.  Although this has somewhat diminished since the last survey in August last year where the net balance was -33.
“The most positive factors for turnover outlook highlighted by Centre Mangers in the February survey continue to be issues that are specific to particular centres, such as changes to tenancy profile, growth expectations within the trade area and planned refurbishment activity,” said Mr Fennell.
<a href="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%202.37.32%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> <img src="/images/2016/03/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-29%20at%202.37.32%20PM.png" alt=""> 
JLL Strategic Consulting director, David Snoswell said mproved speciality rental growth in both neighbourhood and sub-regional centres was a highlight in the second half of 2015 across the JLL-managed portfolio of retail centres nationally, with rents in neighbourhood shopping centres increasing by 4.2 percent in 2015 while Sub-Regional centre rents grew by 3.1 percent.
“Vacancies in Neighbourhood centre improved marginally from 3.9 percent in June 2015 to 3.7 percent in December 2015.  This continues the long-term improvement in neighbourhood centre vacancies. The vacancy rate has trended down over the last 2.5 years from 5.8 percent in June 2013.
“Tenant enquiry remains positive, but only just. The last four JLL surveys have reported positive tenant enquiry levels, although respondents have become less positive over the last 12 months. By far the most common response in the February survey was ‘no change’ to the level of tenant enquiry, with 63 percent of respondents not seeing a definitive change either way in tenant interest."
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Shopping centre managers expect turnover growth for the year ahead

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Brisbane’s western fringe strata office and retail market has remained strong despite the period of economic uncertainty which has had a negative impact on the CBD market, according to Ray White Commercial research.
Vanessa Rader, Head of Research for Ray White Commercial, said the strata office market has experienced improvement in investment turnover since 2014 with significant investment in the retail side.
“Activity in the strata office market in the western fringe has shown a pickup in activity due to increased interest by opportunistic investors capitalising on historical low interest rates,” she said in the Between the lines Milton &amp; Toowong strata market report August 2015.
“Quality or premium type assets have been sought after by investors, achieving capital values in the region of $17,000 per sqm.
“These properties are typically those well located on Park Road, Milton, and have secure long term restaurant leases.
“These highs exceed those capital values achievable within the CBD, highlighting the confidence in this location.
“Prime retail assets are more reasonably priced in the $8,000 per sqm to $12,000 per sqm range and are also strongly food or convenience driven tenancies in locations such as Sherwood Rd, Toowong.”
Ms Rader said rents achievable vary depending on the quality of the assets.
“Premium assets in terms of location, size and access demand rents up in the $800 per sqm to $1,050 per sqm gross face range,” she said.
Ms Rader said while some areas in the western fringe have a high vacancy rate, it’s a different story for a number of quality assets in Milton.
“The sought after Camford Square development in Milton as well as the historic terraces at 249 Coronation Drive, Milton, and 15 Lang Parade, Auchenflower, are indicative of successful strata properties which consistently have close to full occupation,” she said.
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Brisbane western fringe strata market remains strong‏

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Demand from local developers and Chinese investors in CBD office markets is spilling over into the suburb market, according to new research from Colliers International.
Colliers International Managing Director of Capital Markets &amp; Investment Sales John Marasco said a number of groups, have recently created listed metropolitan office funds but offshore and private buyers are creating demand for metropolitan office space.
"Institutional buyers traditionally prefer the established metropolitan markets of Parramatta, North Sydney and St Leonards in Sydney, Fortitude Valley and West End in Brisbane, and St Kilda Road and Southbank in Melbourne,” he said.
“Given the strong demand for quality assets in our metropolitan markets, it is not surprising that there has been yield compression across most precincts. In Parramatta, yields for A grade stock now average 7.63%, down from 8% per cent in March 2015.
“In St Leonards, yields have compressed by 50bp over the six months to September 2015, to now average 8%, while in Melbourne, St Kilda Road A Grade yields now average 7.63%, down from 7.88%  in March 2015, and City Fringe yields now average 7%."
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CBD office demand spilling into metro markets

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A steady stream of private Melbourne investors have snapped up some of Queensland’s prime retail investment properties this year, attracted by the state’s solid growth fundamentals, according to real estate firm MMJ Melbourne.
Director of MMJ Melbourne, Joel Wald, said there was heightened interest from Melbourne’s private investors looking for properties close to Queenland’s CBD areas.
A private Melbourne investor recently bought a property at 66 Dalton Drive, Maroochydore for $6.84 million. The property was designed and constructed for Officeworks as a relocation to an area earmarked as a new CBD.
The sale was through MMJ Melbourne.
Earlier in the year, MMJ Melbourne also sold 130­134 Gympie Road, Strathpine, Queensland to another private Melbourne investor for $11.5 million. Tenants included Officeworks, Flip Out, a medical centre and pharmacy.
Private investors have also snapped up a Bunnings Springfield warehouse for $40 million(above), and another Officeworks at 176 Ipswich Road, Woolloongabba.
“These are significant properties, and Melbourne investors clearly like the confidence that Queensland is proposing for retail investment at the moment. The vote of confidence investors see from big companies, like Officeworks, committing to these areas further reinforces this,” said Wald.
One of the key fundamentals is Queensland’s growing population. It was estimated at 4,722,450 persons in June-end 2014 , a rise of 70,540 from June 2013. This was the third largest population increase of any Australian state or territory over this period after New South Wales and Victoria.
“Obviously, population growth is one of the key fundamentals of retail investing, and at the moment, for Queensland, this is its strongest selling point,” said Wald.
The just released NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q3 2015 said that while overall sentiment has moderated a little, it still remains at elevated levels. The survey suggests capital growth for the next 1­2 years will be strongest for office property, followed by industrial and retail.
Positive rental returns are also forecast in all sectors in the next 1­2 years, led by big upward revision in expectations for office rents (especially Victoria).
“All in all, we’re seeing very solid commercial property prospects across the board as we close out this year and enter into the next.
"Given this, I expect to continue to see strong demand from my clients in Melbourne to the sunny state as we enter 2016”, said Wald.
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Melbourne investors lured to Queensland by retail investment opportunities: MMJ Melbourne

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A mixed-use property with retail and medical space in the Sunshine Coast has come to the market.
Pulse Oceanside, developed by Evans Long, offers ground floor retail and first floor medical suites in a location opposite the proposed entrance of the Sunshine Coast University Hospital. The combined space is 1,376 sqm.
CBRE’s Michael Hedger, Joe Tynan, Millan Narsey, Sam Grasso and Ryan Parry will be negotiating the sales of the properties, which will be offered individually to suit passive investors and self-managed super funds looking for security and strong growth.
The suites will be offered to the market via an expressions of interest campaign ending this month, with the sales expected to have a combined value of $15 million.
Tynan said the immediate precinct is undergoing a major health care infrastructure development, valued at more than $5 billion, which will create 12,000 new jobs and drive further growth in the area – underpinning the retail market.
“Significant buyer interest is expected from both national and international groups, particularly as buyers are more actively targeting the Queensland market to benefit from more attractive yields than those offered in Sydney and Melbourne,” added Hedger.
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