Retail Market

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The Brisbane retail property sector has remained relatively stable throughout 2019 as firm yields continue to be achieved across asset types and price points with strong demand from investors for quality retail assets with strong income security, according to the latest retail report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
They found, the recent interest rate cuts and the very poor returns from cash are however again putting downward pressure on property yields for good quality investments, despite an industry consensus in late 2018 and early 2019 that yields had bottomed.
The valuers said, "we are yet to see widespread evidence of further yield tightening but this is more a function of very limited levels of stock availability and lesser levels of sales activity."
"At the lower end of the market, the demand for good quality convenience and neighbourhood shopping centres remains strong with high levels of investor interest from private investors in particular."
"Such properties generally continue to trade in the six to seven per cent yield range"
More broadly, sub-regional, regional and major regional shopping centres continue to feel the squeeze as the traditionally high rental levels are in many instances not sustainable.
Whilst good centres are better at maintaining occupancy, for many centres this is being done on a reduced rental structure which has a direct flow through to values.
For secondary centres, the increasing levels of vacancies are becoming harder to hide.
The report authors noted, "much of this pain is still to be worked through and is likely to continue for some time."
"These pressures are impacting on the higher end investment markets where the sentiment for retail has softened considerably."
"Overall, we expect generally stable market conditions to continue for the lower tier retail markets into 2020 on the back of the low interest rate environment."
"In particular, there will continue to be strong interest in secure income producing properties with strong lease covenants, however many leasing markets are likely to remain difficult and there will be a heightened degree of volatility for both rentals and values for secondary assets," they concluded.
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Brisbane retail sector strong with limited supply: HTW Retail

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Three of the eight capital cities are now at the top of the retail market, with Melbourne and Brisbane joining Canberra, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White's (HTW) latest retail property clock.
The Central Coast, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Coffs Harbour also moved to the peak of market position.
Sydney remained at the approaching peak of market position this month, while Ballarat, Bendigo, Burnie-Devonport and Launceston are holding as rising markets.
Mackay joined Adelaide, among others, beginning their retail market recovery.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/11/5/HTW%20Retail%20Clock%20NOV%202019.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/5/HTW%20Retail%20Clock%20NOV%202019.JPG" alt="">
Geelong and Illawarra remain at the start of their decline.
There's not great news for Ballina, Newcastle, Lismore and Toowoomba, which are now declining markets, joining Echuca and Gippsland.
Hobart's retail market is still nearing the bottom of the market, as is Gladstone, South West WA and now Rockhampton.
Alice Springs joined Perth, Darwin, Cairns, Townsville, Wide Bay, and Emerald at the bottom of the market.
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Brisbane and Melbourne retail markets are peaking: HTW Retail Clock

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
There are significant dangers in making generalisations on consumer spending. Sales of shoes and chemist items are solid. But the home building slowdown is weighing on sales of hardware and garden items while Aussie families are still cutting back on newspapers and books. Prices are rising sharply at food stores with the drought a key influence. But prices of shoes and electrical items are still cheaper than a year ago.
Overall, sales of retail goods continue to slow. One reason is higher retail inflation – the highest in a decade. But there is also the ongoing switch to services like health, education and tourism. Aussies still enjoy going out to cafes and restaurants. Meanwhile Aussie consumers outlay more on insurance, utilities and housing.
For the full 2018/19 year, Aussies spent 3 per cent more at retail outlets. They bought 1.3 per cent more goods and services while prices rose by 1.8 per cent over the year.
Are Aussie families living more simply? Perhaps. But it may also be the case that the significant uncertainty about the May election caused consumers to make a key tactical retreat. The encouraging 0.4 per cent lift in June spending may signify the return of the Aussie consumer.
Retail trade – June
Retail trade rose by 0.4 per cent in June after a 0.1 per cent increase in May. Annual growth rose from 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Non-food retailing rose by 0.5 per cent in June, and annual growth lifted from 1.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent.
Sales by chain-store retailers and other large retailers rose by 0.7 per cent in June after a 0.1 per cent increase in May to stand 3.9 per cent higher over the year.
Spending rose most in June in Clothing retailing (up 2.0 per cent); Footwear (up 1.9 per cent); Newspaper and book retailing (up 1.8 per cent) and Takeaway food (up 1.6 per cent). Nine of 15 retail categories rose in June.
Spending fell the most for Specialised food – butchers, bakers, fruit etc. (down 3.8 per cent) and Department stores and Hardware, building and garden supplies (both down 0.6 per cent).
Across states/territories: NSW (up 0.3 per cent); Victoria (up 0.3 per cent); Queensland (up 0.4 per cent); South Australia (down 0.3 per cent); Western Australia (up 0.8 per cent), Tasmania (up 1.5 per cent); Northern Territory (down 0.2 per cent); ACT (up 0.3 per cent).
Retail trade – June quarter
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, retail trade rose by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.1 per cent fall in the March quarter. Annual growth slowed to 0.2 per cent – the slowest since June quarter 1991 (28 years).
Eleven of the 15 retail categories showed growth in the June quarter.
Strongest gains were by Footwear &amp; Other Personal Accessory (up 1.5 per cent) from Department stores and Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods (both up 1.4 per cent).
Biggest falls were by Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies (down 1.9 per cent), Newspapers and Books (down 1.7 per cent); and Supermarkets and Grocery Stores (down 0.6 per cent).
Prices across retailers rose by 0.4 per cent in the June quarter after a 0.8 per cent rise in the March quarter. Annual growth of retail prices lifted from 2.0 per cent to a decade high of 2.4 per cent.
Prices rose most in the June quarter in Pharmaceutical Cosmetic and Toiletry (up 1.3 per cent); Hardware, Building &amp; Garden Supplies and Newspapers and Books (both up 1.0 per cent).
In the June quarter there was still deflation in Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods (prices down 1.2 per cent); Footwear &amp; Other Personal Accessory (down 0.6 per cent); and Furniture, Floorcovering and Textile Goods (down 0.1 per cent).
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank would do well to hold fire on future rate cuts until it assesses more evidence. The latest data shows higher prices and higher spending at a retail level. We do know that home prices are stabilising and that the sharemarket is only slightly down from record levels after reaching new peaks on Tuesday. There are also signs that employers are hiring again.
David Jones believes retailing is in recession. The timing of the comments wasn’t good – real department store sales rose by a solid 1.4 per cent in the June quarter.
The 0.7 per cent real decline in spending at Supermarkets &amp; grocery stores is remarkable. Cafes &amp; restaurants and takeaway outlets are doing better. Also of note, Marley Spoon has just released solid results.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Slowest retail spending in 28 years: CommSec's Craig James

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The local strip retail market has gone through an evolution over the past 10 years, and Oxford Street in Paddington has been a part of that change, according to Ray White's latest Between the Lines report. 
Ray White Commercial Eastern Suburbs director Grant Whiteman said destination strips like Oxford Street have had to reposition.   “This is off the back of local development, e-commerce, demographics, and spending habits, which have all changed the way individuals interact with local shopping,” Mr Whiteman said.   “While tenant mixes have seen some movement, rental rates and vacancies do continue to fluctuate.   “However, enquiry levels remain elevated for investment, with yields achievable in the 5-5.5 per cent range.”   Ray White head of research Vanessa Rader said Ray White Commercial Eastern Suburbs had surveyed the Oxford Street retail strip in January 2019 to determine tenancy mix and vacancies.   “Results have been encouraging, with vacancies of approximately 8.85 per cent recorded. Our last survey conducted in early 2015 saw vacancies at 11.81 per cent,” Ms Rader said.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/27/OX1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/27/OX1.jpg" alt=""> 
“This period in 2015 was difficult for the region given the vacation of larger multinational tenants and the uncertain identity for this area. “Oxford Street enjoys high foot traffic and a heavy reliance on the clothing and soft good sector.   “Known as a fashion strip, this location also had a strong weighting towards furniture and homeware retailing to cater for the fashion-conscious home owner, however this has reduced over the last few years to just 2.46 per cent of the strip.   “While other retail locations favour food retailing, Oxford Street only represents 13.92 per cent of combined specialised food, café and restaurant retailing.   “Many retail centres and strip locations have favoured food retailing, and given the increase in retail spending habits geared towards food, this segment is somewhat immune to the internet shopping phenomenon that has changed the face of retail over the last ten years.   “While this may be below rates achieved in other locations, this has shown a swift upward movement since our last survey, where this accounted for less than 10 per cent of the total floorspace.   “While some owners have invested into capital expenditure and repurposing spaces, others have not, which results in a range of quality in tenants, with rental rates in a wide range between $350 to $900/sq m gross.   “This is down from the prime range of $900 to $1,500/sq m achieved in our 2015 analysis, and the highs of pre-Westfield Bondi Junction, upwards of $1,200/sq m.”   
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Paddington's Oxford Street seeing encouraging signs: Ray White

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Three of the eight capital cities are now at the bottom of the retail market, with Darwin now joining Adelaide and Perth, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White's (HTW) latest retail property clock.
Brisbane remains the strongest capital city market for retail, retaining its peak of market position.
It has been joined this month by Dubbo and the Gold Coast. 
Melbourne, Newcastle and Coffs Harbour have all moved into the beginning of a retail market decline, while Sydney is approaching the peak of the market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/4/Jan%20Retail%20Clock.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/4/Jan%20Retail%20Clock.JPG" alt="">
There's not great news for Canberra, which is now in a declining market, joining Alice Springs, Echuca and Gippsland.
Hobart's retail market is still nearing the bottom of the market, as is the Adelaide Hills, Barossa Valley, South West WA and the Iron Triangle region.
Retail space in Sydney continues to approach market peak.
Ballarat, Bendigo, Launceston, Burnie-Devonport, the Mid North Coast and the Sunshine coast are all classified as rising markets.
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Three capital cities at the bottom of the retail market: HTW Property Clock

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Menswear chain Roger David will shut down all of its stores across Australia within a month, leaving 56 stores empty.
The 76-year-old company was placed in voluntary administration on October 18 citing "the influx of multinational retailers and the rapid, global evolution of online shopping" as the reason for their closure.
KordaMentha Restructuring administrator Craig Shepard said that while there had been some interest among potential buyers, there were no firm bids.
"Roger David was a victim of rising fixed costs, fierce competition from online and global competitors and cautious consumer demand," Mr Shepard said.
The embattled retailer is to close down by early to mid-December.
Roger David employs 300 full-time people and almost 200 casuals and part-timers.
Roger David has 193 employees in 19 stores in Victoria, 98 in 15 stores in Queensland, 77 in 12 stores in NSW, 60 in seven stores in WA, 15 in two stores in SA, 15 in two stores in Tasmania and four in one Canberra store.
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Menswear chain Roger David shutting down leaving behind 56 empty storefronts

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The retail market on the Sunshine Coast has generally reflected the overall retail markets of south-east Queensland over the past three year period, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) commercial report.
The valuation firm took a look at the changing faces in the retail sector across the nation. 
"We have seen very strong yield compression for national tenant type holdings appealing to a larger regional style market," the report noted.
"We have also seen some investors begin to change their overall offer for stand alone holdings where appropriate and there’s been a re-positioning of some centres, primarily with a new focus towards food and entertainment offerings."
Several small neighbourhood centres in secondary overall locations have placed café-style tenants as primary tenants and have used these as the main draw to fill surrounding tenancies if the café tenant gets a strong following.
There has been a mix of hits and misses with this approach to date, which mainly fluctuates on the quality of the food tenant.
A former bulky goods type retail centre in Maroochydore opposite the southern entrance to Sunshine Plaza has also begun to reposition along the same lines, it noted.
"Recent placement of a health food supermarket, gym and two café-style operators has begun to change the dynamic of the centre, which had significant vacancies over the past three year period."
HTW noted the Ocean Street precinct had remained strong over the past two years, which is another area that has centred on a food and entertainment offering.
The Sunshine Plaza extension is also continuing which will add a David Jones and Big W to the overall offer.
The expansion will see the centre increase to 107,000 square metres with a further 100 specialties as well as a renovation of the existing facility and addition of 1,500 car parks.
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Café-style tenants becoming major drawcards for Sunshine Coast retail cenres: HTW

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The Sydney Metro Northwest upgrades have resulted in a variety of retail spaces on and around five of the new railway stations.
This follows the previous appointment of Savills Australia to conduct an expressions of interest leasing campaign for retail spaces at 12 of the Sydney Metro Northwest stations, which closed on June 1, 2018.
Now, phase two will differ by instead offering long-term retail opportunities in purpose built buildings on the station unpaid concourse.
Sydney Metro in partnership with Landcom are also offering on the land reserved for future development surrounding the station a 3,000sq m (approx.) ground lease opportunity and short term pad sites within “Interim Activation Areas” suited to a variety of uses, for example food and beverage trucks, pop up retail and events.
Savills Australia executive of retail services, David Kleiner has been appointed to conduct a new expressions of interest leasing campaign and said he has received an overwhelming response since the beginning of the first release.
These new opportunities have become available at five Sydney Metro Northwest stations at Tallawong, Kellyville, Bella Vista, Hills Showground and Cherrybrook stations. Chcha
Sydney Metro is Australia’s biggest public transport project – 13 metro stations open in the city’s north west in the first half of next year, with metro rail to extend into the Sydney CBD in 2024.
The expressions of interest campaign will commence 19 September 2018 with the activation of a dedicated website being www.sydneymetroleasing.com.au and close 19 October, 2018.
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Sydney metro offering long-term retail spaces

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Temple &amp; Webster, which suggests it was becoming "the next Harvey Norman" has reported its inaugural profit.
It claims to be Australia’s largest e‐commerce company in the furniture and homewares market.
Temple &amp; Webster has over 130,000 products on sale from over 700 suppliers.
Temple &amp; Webster earned $300,000 before interest, tax, amortisation and depreciation in the June-half following a 24% rise in revenues.
The company finished the year with a cash balance of $9.9 million and had net cash flows of $600,000 in the June quarter.
"[Two] years ago we promised our shareholders we would reach profitability during calendar year 2018 without having to raise additional capital, and I am proud to say that we achieved this goal," Coulter said in a statement on Monday.
He expected Temple &amp; Webster to be EBITDA positive in 2019, eight years after its launch in 2011 and two year after being floated in 2016 with its management team, including Mike Henriques (former Wayfair Australia GM) and Sven Lindell (ex Bras N’ Things, Woolworths and Rebel).
Temple &amp; Webster shares rose 7% to 76¢, compared with their issue price of $1.10.
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E-commerce furniture and homewares store Temple & Webster makes its inaugural profit

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Brisbane's retail market is at its peak, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White's July retail property clock.
It's a bounce back in fortunes for the Brisbane retail market. In their April clock, Herron Todd White said the Brisbane market was starting to decline.
"In the CBD, 300 George Street, Queens Wharf, the Howard Smith Wharves and the recently announced redevelopment of the Eagle Street Pier will dramatically reshape the landscape over the next five years," the report noted.
Adelaide, Darwin and Perth's retail markets are at the bottom of the market, while there's good signs for Sydney, Hobart, Canberra Melbourne. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/HTW_Retail_July.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/HTW_Retail_July.jpg" alt="">
In April when HTW released its <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/82498-dubbo-at-peak-of-retail-market-htw" target="_blank">last retail clock</a>, Dubbo's retail market was at its peak, where it also sat in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/78880-dubbo-springs-to-the-top-of-retail-clock-htw" target="_blank">December's clock.</a>
There are pockets across New South Wales which are approaching the peak of market.
Last month the Smorgon family listed their <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/85449-smorgon-family-list-queen-street-mall-retail-holding-with-100-million-hopes" target="_blank">retail holding at Queen Street Mall</a> in the Brisbane CBD with $100 million hopes.
 
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