Retail Demand

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The Australian master franchisee for multinational discount retailer Miniso has collapsed into voluntary administration amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Launched in Australia back in 2017, Miniso is headquartered in Guangzhou, China,
It is understood the company suffered from a lockdown decline in foot traffic, and it did not have a very strong e-commerce strategy.
Miniso’s local landlords, including ASX-listed centre owners Scentre Group, GPT Group, Vicinity Centres and Stockland, are not receiving rent payments during the pandemic.
Other creditors, including ANZ Bank, the Australian Taxation Office and parent company Tabata Holdings, are owed more than $6 million combined, with the China-based parent the largest creditor.
Earlier this month an application was granted to the joint and several voluntary administrators of Miniso Master Franchisee Pty Ltd to extend the convening period for its next creditors meeting for a period of six weeks up to and including 21 September 2020.
The first meeting of creditors was held on 23 July 2020.
Miniso operates a hybrid ownership model of business whereby the stores operate through franchisee agreements, joint venture arrangements and stores wholly owned by the Miniso corporate group.
The company purchases and holds stock on behalf of the entities within the Miniso group. The administrators identified 12 group owned stores, 13 franchises, six joint ventures and one wholesale store within the group.
The administrators have, amongst other things, undertaken to continue to trade in order to conserve its value for a potential sale and/or recapitalisation.
The known unsecured creditors of the company, including the landlords, are owed approximately $24.3 million and the secured creditors of the company are owed approximately $132,431. A stocktake showed a stock value of $3.8 million.</div>
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<div>The administrators continue to work with a related party that has expressed interest in putting forward a DOCA proposal. </div>
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Miniso Master Franchisee Pty Ltd, the main revenue generating entity associated with its business in Australia, appointed Grant Thornton as administrators in July.
Miniso has 32 trading stores in Australia, however they are not all in administration.
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“The company entered into voluntary administration generally due to the difficult trading conditions as a result of COVID and consumer trading habits being restrained,” Grant Thornton administrator Philip Campbell-Wilson said in a statement.
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Discount retailer Miniso Australian master franchisee collapses into voluntary administration

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Interestingly, Australia’s policymakers say we are in recession. But clearly it is a very interesting recession. Retail spending rose 2.4 per cent in June after a 16.9 per cent rise in May. Overall, Australians spent 8.2 per cent more on retail goods and services than they did in June last year. Recent jobs data shows that a record 210,800 jobs were created in June. And national home prices are 7.8 per cent higher than a year ago.
There is no doubt that Australia – like other nations – is battling the COVID-19 crisis and the impacts on the economy. But today’s data shows that our economy is indeed doing better than most – as the Treasurer and Reserve Bank Governor have noted. Stimulus measures provided by state and territory governments and the Reserve Bank have been significant, helping businesses and consumers navigate these challenging times.
The June retail trade data is 22 days old, but it is almost ancient history. Melbourne is under lockdown and many NSW residents are in isolation due to virus outbreaks. Governments and banks have done a lot so far to support Aussies but more may still be required.
The services sector, including restaurants, pubs &amp; clubs, sporting venues and arts &amp; recreation continue to struggle. But food, alcohol and household goods remain very much in demand, driving the overall retail sector higher.
The road will be bumpy in the re-opening phase, and there will be setbacks, but the Australian economy is on the way back. We just need to rely on all Australians doing the right thing – social distancing, wearing masks when required and maintaining good hand hygiene.
What do the figures show?
Retail trade – June
‘Preliminary’ retail trade rose by 2.4 per cent in June after rising by a record 16.9 per cent in May (highest in 38 years of records). Retail spending is up 8.2 per cent on the year. The final June data will be released on August 4.
The ABS reported, “there were large increases in turnover in Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing. While some restrictions on trade remain, many businesses saw a full month of trade in June, having been closed for the first week of May 2020."
Rises in Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services exceeded 20 per cent for the second consecutive month, but will remain 17 per cent below the levels of June 2019, while Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose around 19 per cent, remaining 6 per cent below June 2019 levels.
Food retailing rose 0.9 per cent following a 7.2 per cent month-on-month rise in May, and remains elevated in through-the-year terms.
Analysis of supermarket scanner data shows that compared to June 2019, Perishable goods rose 14.4 per cent, Non-perishable goods 12.4 per cent, and All other products 7.8 per cent. The annual growth reflects a continuation of more food being prepared and consumed at home due to social distancing. At the end of the June month there was some evidence of stockpiling of goods such as toilet paper, flour, rice and pasta. At the aggregate level, stockpiling is most evident in Victoria.
Household goods retailing fell in June 2020 although remains 23 per cent above June 2019 levels.
Department stores saw a significant fall after a large rise in May 2020 in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms.”
In its press release the ABS said: “Rises in June 2020 were led by cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services, and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing. While some restrictions on trade remained in June, many businesses in these industries saw a full month of trade, having been closed for the first week of May 2020. Turnover in these industries remained below the levels of June 2019.
Food retailing saw a minor rise of 0.9 per cent, with a rise in supermarkets and grocery stores offset by a fall in liquor retailing. Levels in supermarkets and grocery stores remained elevated, with evidence of stockpiling occurring at the very end of June, particularly in Victoria.
Household goods retailing fell in June 2020, however this industry continued to trade significantly above the levels of June 2019. Department stores fell 12 per cent following a large rise in May.”
Skilled Job Vacancies – June
In seasonally adjusted terms, the Department of Employment Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) increased by 26.3 per cent (or 24,600 job advertisements) in June 2020 to stand at 118,300. Despite this increase, job advertisements are 31.0 per cent (or 53,100 advertisements) below the level recorded in June 2019.
All states and both territories recorded an increase in job advertisements in June 2020. NSW (up 22.5 per cent); Victoria (up 35.4 per cent); Queensland (up 29.3 per cent); South Australia (up 29.5 per cent); Western Australia (up 32.4 per cent); Tasmania (up 52.3 per cent); Northern Territory (up 35.7 per cent); ACT (up 3 per cent).
“Job advertisements increased in all occupational groups. The strongest gains were recorded for Community and Personal Service Workers (up by 54.5 per cent), followed by Sales Workers (39.2 per cent) and Technicians and Trades Workers (32.1 per cent).
Despite the gains observed during the month, 45 of the 48 detailed occupational groups recorded falls in job advertisement over the year to June 2020.
Education Professionals recorded the largest increase (up by 21.9 per cent or 390 job advertisements) over the year. Construction Trades Workers, and Cleaners and Laundry Workers were the two other occupational groups to record increases, both up by 3.9 per cent (or 80 and 60 job advertisements respectively).
Job advertisements for Education Professionals and Cleaners and Laundry Workers now exceed pre COVID-19 (February 2020) levels.”
What are the implications for investors
The economic environment remains very fluid, driven by daily developments in the virus crisis. Volatility will persist until a vaccine is found or there are fundamental advances in virus treatments.
The Federal Government will release the July Economic and Fiscal Update (JEFU) at 11am on Thursday.
CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Retail spending up 8% on last year: CommSec's Craig James

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The second half of 2019 has seen a resurgence in demand from investors seeking to sweep up some of the Eastern Suburb’s most prized retail properties. 
The negative portrayal of Sydney’s economic growth seems to have kick started a desire to purchase commercial and residential property across the Eastern Suburbs. With interest rates sitting at record lows (0.75%), investor focus is now being diverted towards the property market in the search of higher returns.
Amidst the growing concerns over the impact of online shopping on high-street retail as we enter 2020, ABS 2019 data reports show that in August 2019 online retail sales accounted for 6.2% of total retail trade, indicating a minimal retail market share. 
Over the past couple of months, renowned suburbs such as Bondi, Double Bay and Woollahra have witnessed record breaking property acquisitions. It is suburbs like these that are being regarded as the best spots to invest in.
The Eastern Suburbs of Sydney contain some of the best retail strips, and we have seen a trend of areas with high foot traffic and low vacancy being targeted.
Recent key retail freehold transactions include:
27-29 Knox Street in Double Bay sold for $9,830,000 representing a net initial yield of 1.76%.
261 Bondi Road sold for $3.75m this month reflecting a net initial yield of 4%.
10 Cross Street in Double Bay sold for $10.25m reflecting a record breaking yield of 1.59%
While demand for leased assets with medium to long-term income streams seems to be a key requirement, there has been no shortage in transactions of vacant retail freehold properties that demonstrate strong fundamentals. 
Even more recently, two vacant strip retail properties (146 &amp; 148 Queen Street in Woollahra) sold for $5.65m reflecting a building rate of $24,459sqm. Investors are now becoming more creative as purchasing retail in these coastal hubs is not simply about securing a long term income stream but also about redevelopment potential or conversion with the implementation of a new tenant.
With average prime retail yields hovering around the 4-5% mark in Eastern Sydney, there has been strong demand from yield-chasing investors who have faced continued yield compression in the office and industrial markets. Recent data shows that bricks &amp; mortar retailing IS still very important with August retail trade having the strongest lift in spending in six months equating to a rise of 2.6% year on year.
Growth in retail is not limited to freehold assets, retail strata properties have also been a new talking point.
Shop 4, 284 Bronte Road, Waverley and 126-128 Avoca Street in Randwick transacted at yields of 5.1% and 5.45% respectively.
This indicates that attention is being directed to less expensive areas of the Eastern Suburbs as investors look to capitalise on infrastructure improvements such as the Randwick Light Rail, which has driven demand for surrounding pockets to the traditionally popular and more expensive suburbs like Bondi.
Looking ahead to 2020, whilst there is some conjecture as to how much longer this cycle will last, recent transactions have created an unprecedented pricing uplift for well-located retail properties. It is expected that investors will continue to favour the commercial property market as the probability of further interest rate cuts is soon to become reality.
Ollie Ridley is an executive for the metropolitan sales team at Savills Australia
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As Sydney’s temperature rises, so does demand for retail investment opportunities across the Eastern Suburbs: Savills

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<div style="text-align: left;" align="center">Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures. </div>
Following on the heels of a 0.9 per cent rise in February 2019. Ben Faulkner, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys said, "cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.4 per cent) and Food retailing (0.4 per cent) led the rises with strength in food prices contributing to rises, especially in supermarkets and grocery stores."
"Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (1.2 per cent) and Household goods retailing (0.2 per cent) also rose. The rises were partially offset by falls in Department stores (-1.5 per cent) and Other retailing (-0.4 per cent)". In seasonally adjusted terms, ABS found there were rises in Victoria (0.7 per cent), Queensland (0.6 per cent), New South Wales (0.2 per cent), Tasmania (0.4 per cent), South Australia (0.1 per cent), and the Northern Territory (0.7 per cent). The Australian Capital Territory was relatively unchanged (0.0 per cent) and Western Australia (-0.7 per cent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in March 2019. The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March 2019. Compared to March 2018, the trend estimate rose 3.0 per cent.  Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in March 2019. In March 2018 online retail turnover contributed 5.1 per cent to total retail. For the March quarter 2019, there was a fall of 0.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
The quarterly fall in volumes was led by Household goods retailing (-0.6 per cent), and Department stores (-1.2 per cent). Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.0 per cent), Other retailing (0.3 per cent), Food retailing (0.1 per cent), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 per cent) all rose in seasonally adjusted volume terms.
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Australian retail turnover rose 0.3 per cent in March: ABS

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2018 is shaping up to be a solid year for the Australian retail investment market if 2017 figures are anything to go by.
According to Savills Quarter Times report, national retail investment volumes reached a 10 year high at $9.17 billion in 2017, with almost half of the total value invested in the $200 million + segment, a trend which hasn’t been seen since 2007.
While overall volumes appeared to moderate during the first half of 2017, major investment volumes quickly recovered and the final quarter closed strongly. 
According to Katy Dean, Associate Director, <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/research/australian-research.aspx" target="_blank">Research &amp; Consultancy, Savills Australia</a>, although investment volumes in 2015 got close to $9 billion, Australian retail investment in 2017 ($5m+) outshines any level seen in the last decade. 
 “Of the surveyed markets, NSW and QLD were the headliners, recording significant rises in investment volumes on a year-on-year basis. 
“Investment volumes in NSW accounted for 45 per cent of national volumes at $4.124billion, almost double the volumes seen in 2016. QLD accounted for almost 30 per cent of the total tally at $2.712billion, a 28 per cent rise on the volumes recorded in 2016. 
“VIC accounted for 20 per cent of national volumes at $1.466billion, however following a surge in 2015 and 2016, volumes were lower for the year ending 2017. 
“WA and SA account for around 9 per cent of the total and while volumes in SA dropped to $230million in 2017, down from $394million in 2016, WA volumes increased 5 per cent to $614million, up from $582million”.  
Ms Dean went on to say that November was the most active month of the year, setting the pace for December which saw a continuation of the high volume, mostly in NSW and QLD, making it the second most active months of 2017. 
“That surge through November and December, has provided a significant boost to the yearend volumes and created a brighter outlook as we start 2018” she continued. 
According to Steven Lerche, National Director of <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/services-and-sectors/sales-and-investment/retail-investments.aspx" target="_blank">Retail Investments, Savills Australia</a>, 2017 saw the retail property market fuelled by low interest rates, rapid population growth and large volumes of foreign capital. 
“Market conditions remained strong across all sectors but the biggest winners have been the non-discretionary neighbourhood centres and freestanding supermarkets - both of which, have been hotly contested.
Mr Lerche said most active investors are onshore REIT’s, Funds, syndicates and private. Offshore Chinese investment has been patchy but they have targeted well located (next to train stations) redevelopment opportunities allowing for integrated living, shopping and entertaining. 
“Large format retail has remained an active sector with yields falling sharply as investors have been keen to secure such assets” he said. 
From a national perspective, Ms Dean said regional, sub regional and neighbourhood transactions were the largest contributors to overall volume numbers, with deals in the regional sector ($2.508billion) mostly responsible for the record-breaking year. The last time regional sales volumes got close to this level was back in 2007 ($2.87billion). 
“On average the market turns over $1.02billion in regional assets annually, with sales in 2017 buoyed by five main transactions with stakes selling in Indooroopilly SC in QLD for $800million, Kawana Shoppingworld in QLD for $186million, Highpoint SC in Vic for $660million, Chatswood Chase in NSW for $562.3million and Rockingham SC in WA for $300million.
“Neighbourhood Centre transactions accounted for 20 per cent of total volumes, $1.840billion across the capital cities surveyed, well above the $1.38billion recorded in 2016.
“After recording $1.629billion, the large format sector was a major standout in regards to investment volumes, reaching its highest level in the past decade” she continued. 
Mr Lerche said despite a shift in retail spending, we expect investment sales volumes in 2018 to remain steady. 
“Yields will remain tight due to the continued historically low interest rates and the private sector is likely to continue to cash out at what they believe to be the top of the market.
“In 2018, we could see similar levels of supply however we do expect a thinner buyer pool. Sydney will remain the defensive location with population growth fueling investment demand.” 
Savills is a leading global real estate service provider offering the full spectrum of services from strategic advice to managing assets and projects and transacting deals. Katy Dean is Associate Director of <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/research/australian-research.aspx" target="_blank">Savills Research &amp; Consultancy</a> and Steven Lerche is National Director of <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/services-and-sectors/sales-and-investment/retail-investments.aspx" target="_blank">Savills Retail Investments</a>. To learn more about Savills, visit <a href="http://www.savills.com.au" target="_blank">savills.com.au</a>.
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NSW & QLD front runners as Australian retail sales volumes reach 10 year high: Savills

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Melbourne’s CBD retail core has continued its overall downward trend recording a vacancy rate of just 3.3 percent in 2016 according to research from Savills.
Research from Savills found a moderate rise of 0.7 percent on the previous year’s figure but well below the 5.2 percent, five year average.
The survey of CBD Core &amp; Swanston Street Precinct found there were just 39 vacancies among the 1181 shops which are dominated by Clothing, Footwear &amp; Personal Accessories stores (492) and Cafes, Restaurants &amp; Takeaway Food Services (281).
The number of shops grew from 1132 to 1181 over the 12 months, largely due to the opening of St Collins Lane.
Notable debutants to CBD trading included Debenhams which will open its first Australian flagship store (4000 sqm) at St Collins Lane in September, joining  L'Agent, Kooples and Zadig &amp; Voltaire.
Meanwhile Sandro and Maje, Folli Follie and REISS, Coach, TAG Heuer and Furla have also opened up to trade at the refurbished city centre.
Elsewhere US based footwear retailer, Foot Locker, leased a prime 600 square metre Bourke Street Mall premises, Michael Hill Jewellers leased 69sqm on the corner of Bourke and Swanston streets.
Viva Hair leased 142sqm at 147-149 Russell Street, Connect Hearing leased 124sqm at Centrepoint, and  Sushi Hub continued its CBD expansion with a 26 Elizabeth Street lease (all Savills leases).
The data which paints a relatively positive picture of CBD retailing reflects growing CBD and worker populations,
This has driven a significant rise in service and hospitality based retail in recent years, as well as recent ABS data indicating growth in Victorian retail trade and a household move away from saving to spending.
ABS retail trade (seasonally adjusted) data revealed Victorian retail trade grew by 4.12 per cent in 2016, above the national average growth of 3.45 per cent.
Meanwhile the household savings ratio has been in +6 percent territory over the past year - its lowest level since the GFC - indicating households budgets have begun a shift away from saving to spending.
Monica Mondkar, Savills’ associate director research and consultancy, said Melbourne’s CBD core retail had weathered an apparent downturn in retailing surprisingly well given static wages growth and moderate levels of consumer confidence.
"Melbourne’s CBD has undoubtedly been a good performer in recent times with vacancy characteristic of periods of stronger economic growth and certainty," she said.
"But what may seem outwardly as anomalous growth has some key underpinnings that more than adequately explain its status.
"There has been an apartment boom in Melbourne over several years which has significantly increased CBD and environs residential populations,
"Meanwhile latterly a stronger office leasing market has also increased white collar employment and hence worker population, and of course a resurgence in student numbers has also been important.
"When you consider that the dominant CBD retail sectors are hospitality, food, and service sector related, it’s clear that population growth factors have been the key driver of CBD retail."
Ms Mondkar said the continued influx of high profile global fashion brands and the attraction of modern retail hubs was also attractive to both tourists and Melbourne’s suburban population.
"The number of new and refurbished retail precincts and the continuation of the influx of high profile global brands has no doubt accounted for a significant part of the increase in spending, attracting thousands of new shoppers to the CBD," she said.
"With the resident population alone expected to grow by 14 per cent by 2020 we are going to see the vacancy rate remain low over the medium term."
 
<table class="GridTable7ColorfulAccent1" style="width: 468px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
CBD Core Tenancy Mix 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       2012
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       2016
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
2017
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
5 year change
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Cafes, Restaurants &amp; Takeaway Food Services
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       251
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         281
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
282
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   +12.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Clothing, Footwear &amp; Personal Accessory
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       420
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         466
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
492
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
+17.1%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Department Stores
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
          7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
             7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
7
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
       -
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Food 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         34
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
           48
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
48
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   +41.2%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Household Goods
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         58
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
           51
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
51
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   -12.1%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Services
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       130
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         141
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
151
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   +16.2%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Other
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
       102
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         108
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
112
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   +9.8%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Vacant 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         75
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
           29
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
39
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   -48%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="155">
Vacancy Factor
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
         7%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="86">
          2.6%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
3.3%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
   -3.7%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: Savills Research 
Ms Mondkar said the demographic change - which reflected a cultural shift with Melburnians, once wedded firmly to the suburban quarter acre block.
"It is now showing a definite penchant for inner-city apartments, fashion, education sector growth and tourism would continue to bolster the coffers of CBD retailers," she said.
"Apartment living is a development which is here to stay and that will continue to be a key driver in the make-up of CBD retail.
"At the same time Melbourne remains the fashion capital and is also firmly on the radar with tourist shoppers and students and those factors will continue to drive the CBD market for the foreseeable future.".   
The survey found little movement in rents which now range between $1500 a square metre, for CBD shopping centre space, to circa $11,000 a square metre for prime space on Bourke Street Mall.  
<table class="GridTable7ColorfulAccent1" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="220">
CBD Retail Rents (Gross $sqm) 
Shop sizes: 50 -150 sqm
</td>
<td valign="top" width="92">
       Low 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="156">
      High
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="220">
Laneways/Arcades
</td>
<td valign="top" width="92">
       1800
</td>
<td valign="top" width="156">
       3500
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="220">
CBD Shopping Centres
</td>
<td valign="top" width="92">
       1500
</td>
<td valign="top" width="156">
       3000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="220">
 CBD core retail shopfronts  
(excluding Bourke St Mall)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="92">
       3000
</td>
<td valign="top" width="156">
       6000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="220">
Bourke St Mall
</td>
<td valign="top" width="92">
       9000
</td>
<td valign="top" width="156">
       11,000
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Source: Savills Research Two levels, numbers seven and nine, are currently up for lease through Savills on the south eastern corner of Queen and Collins Streets in <a href="https://commercialpropertysearch.savills.com.au/7cb45e7e-52c7-e611-80c4-005056816dfc/Lease/Melbourne/379-Collins-Street" target="_blank">379 Collins Street</a> (pictured above).
A combined total area of 2954.10sqm is available at a cost of $116.00 per sqm per annum.
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Retail vacancies down 37 percent on post GFC high

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Woolworths’ shareholders have endured a bumpy ride these last few years. From its peak close to $40 in mid-2014, the share price has been flirting with $20 most of this year before yesterday’s rather unconvincing spike.
Woolworths’ travails of recent years have been well documented. Most notable has been the disastrous Masters foray. This slow motion train wreck got most of the attention, but in hindsight it was a sideshow. The real issue has been the assiduous ascendance of Aldi - a serious and focused competitor that has quietly, patiently but very deliberately moved into Woolworths’ heartland and destroyed its fundamental value.
Australian shoppers, once sceptical of Aldi’s rather idiosyncratic own-brand products, have embraced the German upstart with gusto in recent years. Aldi has been able to position itself as the underdog, when in reality it is one of the world’s most capable and deep-pocketed retailers. Its “piling it high, selling it cheap” approach has been welcomed by Australian shoppers who for far too long knew they were being taken for a ride by a grocery duopoly with some of the highest margins in the world.
Woolworths’ new chief executive, Brad Banducci has the unenviable task of turning all this around and yesterday he fired the one shot he probably has in the locker.
In an absolute sense the announcement yesterday was underwhelming – 500 staff to go and another 1000 moving closer to the retail frontline. Together with the mooted store closures, these add to more than $4 billion of write-downs and charges this year. Banducci has taken the charge on the capital account to embellish the profit and loss by clearing the decks of baggage.
However, the real problem is none of this does anything where it matters, in the stores where the customers are and in the relationships with suppliers. In both areas Woolworths has fundamental and structural problems and yesterday’s announcement does little to address these.
A major problem for Woolworths is its history. Woolworths became corpulent on its own success, shoehorning more and more products into its increasingly large format stores. A large format Woolworths has 15 horizontal metres of yoghurt – Aldi has about 50cm of horizontal space in its refrigerated section devoted to this product. It’s a case in point of how we humans can have too much of a good thing.
Aldi has its own version of most of the products it sells while Woolworths stocks a variety of supplier versions and quite a few of its own. Its growth in the range of what it sells, undertaken while it was riding high on a wave of oligopolistic profitability is virtually impossible to reverse.
The focus of Aldi has so many benefits – lower wastage, more reliable and economical supply arrangements and more efficient in-store logistics. These are the fundamental drivers of profitability that Woolworths simply cannot replicate.
The other major problem facing Woolworths is its relationships – with employees, customers and suppliers. While it was riding high it took the opportunity to strong-arm suppliers into supply arrangements that accrued massive profits to Woolworths, but left suppliers struggling. Woolworths’ employees too must shake their head in disbelief at the payout for outgoing CEO Grant O’Brien who was most closely associated with the Masters debacle. Customers are also are deserting in droves.
Some may hope that the future can only look better, but this hope may be forlorn. Exiting unprofitable store locations creates a vacuum for Aldi or, worse still, its fellow German retailer, Lidl.
The willingness of Australians to switch allegiance has delivered Aldi better growth in Australia than any of its other international expansions. This has not gone unnoticed in the board rooms of other global retailers. Australia is still seen as one of the most cosseted and hence promising grocery markets anywhere.
So, taken together while the times are tough for Woolworths, they may well be about to become tougher still. Buying Woolworths shares at their current level may well be a great idea - or we may yet see its shares plummet again as the realities of its huge fixed costs and shrinking margins combine to see more long term pain for the company. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-rice-93120" rel="author"></a>
John Rice is professor of management, University of New England and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-rice-93120" target="_blank">here</a>.
Nigel Martin is lecturer, College of Business and Economics, Australian National University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nigel-martin-117971" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Can a corpulent Woolies discard its history and fight off Aldi?

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Rents drive values in the retail sector, valuers Herron Todd White has noted.
"If your investment remains vacant, or is tied up under an unrealistic lease, the value of the asset is under threat.
"Understanding what’s driving rents, and where your holding sits within this market, becomes imperative to ensuring you’ve got your portfolio heading in the right direction.
NSW has two regions -- Central Coast and South East NSW -- that are at the peak of market in valuation firm Herron Todd White's retail clock for last month, May -- a simple broad means of suggesting where property prices are and which direction they are headed. 
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The report give a location-by-location analysis of rental markets, as well as some predictions on where they’re set to head.
Sydney
The retail market in Sydney has been strong over the past 12 months with increased demand from investors, increases in rental rates and lower vacancy rates.
Generally rents look likely to remain stable this year with evidence that increases in prime locations are probable.
The Sydney CBD continues to experience strong demand from local and international fashion retailers. The lack of available space has resulted in some rental growth. Smaller retail premises such as those suitable for cafes are also in demand, with rental rates showing signs of upward pressure. Recent examples indicate some small retail shops are now paying over $4,000 per square metre gross. Average rates tend to sit around $2,000 per square metre for conventional space. The demand is in part driven by increased tourism due to the low Australian dollar. Tourism generally increases demand for prime retail space.
Suburban strips have undergone a revival to some extent with increased demand driving up rental rates, particularly in areas renowned for food and beverage outlets, cafes and restaurants. Some pockets of fashion remain popular in suburban areas although retailers generally favour shopping centres. Suburban rental rates along prime strips such as Newtown, Balmain and Surry Hills are generally above $1,000 per square metre gross for well positioned, well exposed retail premises.
Discounting or decline of retail rental rates seems to be restricted to suburban strata lots. The increase in mixed use development across the Sydney metro area has increased supply. Rates here are typically negotiated on a weekly basis with incentives used to attract tenants.
The outlook for retail rental rates is positive with 2016 looking to be a year of further growth in rental values, particularly among prime locations where supply is limited.
Overall, the retail market in Sydney looks set to continue its pattern of growth for the rest of year. Demand continues, supply is limited and with low interest rates, investors are keen to secure properties with strong lease covenants. All these factors are likely to contribute to another steady year for the retail sector. 
Illawarra
Rents within the local retail property market continue to remain flat with little upward pressure due to the amount of supply and an evolving industry that continues to be impacted by online retailing and rapidly changing consumer demands.
In the Wollongong CBD, demand is mostly from local food and beverage retailers with the emergence of numerous cafes, small bars and restaurants over the years as part of a push by Wollongong City Council to activate the CBD and encourage the evening and night time economy. The number of residential unit developments taking place in the CBD should improve trading conditions for these retailers once these projects are completed. Crown Street Mall is yet to fully recover from the opening of GPT’s West Keira shopping centre and refurbishment works with a medium level of vacancies and softening rents. This precinct has seen a number of service and commercial businesses take space replacing traditional clothing and fashion retailers.
The variation in rents between prime and secondary retail tenancies remains high and this is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Incentives remain common (10% to 20%) and letting up periods (three months to 12 months) have remained relatively consistent. In broader terms, market conditions are still skewed in favour of tenants.
Newcastle
Retail rents in the inner city of Newcastle are hot in a few localities around the city. The Boardwalk within the Honeysuckle precinct remains the most highly sought after retail precinct and consequently, the rental rates are the highest in the city on average on a rate per square metre basis. The older, more established eat street precincts along Darby Street, Cooks Hill and Beaumont Street, Hamilton are slightly secondary to Honeysuckle and while still very popular and with very low levels of vacancy, rental rates are lower on average than The Boardwalk. We should note that the Hunter Street Mall continues to reflect poor market fundamentals and high vacancy rates. Rental rates along this strip are low and have been falling for many years, though the decline in rents has slowed in recent years.
Suburban retail precincts that are secondary to these three primary retail localities obviously will show lower rental figures. There are a number of factors at play here, including local trade and demographic features and proximity to schools and regional shopping centres.
A strong secondary retail trade area is the Warners Bay precinct along The Esplanade which is adjacent to Lake Macquarie.
Our research indicates a nominal discount of 25% to 30% in the Lakeside Warners Bay retail precinct from the prime retail harbour side Honeysuckle precinct. This discount is considered typical in the market place for a strong secondary retail precinct. These rental rates are far stronger than say the Hunter Street Mall in the CBD for example.
Generally retail rents have been stagnant or even declining in secondary retail localities, while the prime spots are showing moderate rental growth due primarily to consistently low vacancy rates. This trend is expected to continue in the short term. 
NSW North Coast
Anecdotal evidence is that the retail sector remains in a state of flux with reduced sales and strong competition between retailers within market segments. The broader market is inconsistent with premium locations being well held with limited vacancies and static rents. Secondary locations are harder to lease with downward pressure on rents and lease incentives prevalent.
Ballina
Ballina CBD has experienced falls in retail rents from previous levels of $275 to $350 per square metre. Some recent leases have resulted in rents in the vicinity of $190 to $275 per square metre.
Lismore
Prime retail locations of Lismore previously would have achieved $290 to $350 per square metre. More recent evidence indicates $240 to $325 per square metre.
An example of this is 146 Molesworth Street, Lismore which was leased for $287 per square metre in 2010 and achieved $241 per square metre in 2015.
In secondary locations in Lismore, the fall has been less dramatic with rents expected to range from $90 to $175 per square metre.
Byron Bay
The exception to these broader observations is Byron Bay. Agents are reporting strong market interest from potential tenants with limited supply and upward pressure on rents. Agents are even reporting key money being paid to secure superior retail locations. At times this comes in the form of buying an existing business to secure the site. Byron Bay retail rents tend to be within the vicinity of $1,000 to $1,500 per square metre in premium locations, $700 to $1,000 per square metre for good locations and $400 to $600 per square metre for secondary locations. 
 
 
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

NSW prime retail sites to grow, tough for rest in 2016: HTW retail clock

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Melbourne CBD core shop vacancies have fallen, a fifth year of decline, and are expected to remain low on the back of more spending, population growth, tourism and the influx of high street global fashion brands.
The CBD core market has just 29 shop vacancies, down from 64 in March 2011 when the vacancy rate reached a post-GFC high of 6 percent, according to Savills Australia’s latest retail research. This marks the fifth consecutive year of declining vacancy despite the addition of several new CBD retail centres.
The vacancy rate also declined over the last 12 months to 2.6 percent from 3.8 percent. 
The figures are supported by a growth in retail trade in Victoria of 5.01 percent year on year in January – the national average was 4.26 per cent - a marginal rise in consumer confidence and continued state population growth including CBD residential population and workforce.
Survey author and Savills’ Victorian research manager Monica Mondkar said there were a number of factors at play which would sustain a tight market in the coming years.
"This is a positive result reflecting the growth in retail trade in the CBD which has been driven by a number of new and refurbished retail precincts and the continuation of the influx of high profile global brands," she said.
Those developments have arguably accounted for a significant part of the increase in spending, attracting thousands of new shoppers to the CBD while growth in both the office and residential population, as well as tourism, has also been significant, she added.
"With the resident population alone expected to grow by 14 percent by 2020 we are going to see the vacancy rate remain low over the medium term." 
The tenancy mix continued to show a rise in the number of food &amp; beverage and hospitality stores, including supermarkets and liquor stores, as well as services and fashion, with the latter growing due to the attraction of shoppers to international brands.
Savills Victorian director, Retail Services, Michael Di Carlo, said the growth in international fashion brands, which saw its peak about three years ago, had continued at a much slower pace which had to a degree stabilised rents and allowed local retailers greater opportunities.
"The growth of international brands has been the story, and to a degree remains the story, but it is now more about the market having plateaued and that opportunities, which had been in a sense denied to local retailers due partly to landlord’s expectations about rents that international brands would pay, have now opened up," he said.
"That is not to say that the international brands influx is off the boil, indeed there remains significant interest in Melbourne including from the likes of Marks &amp; Spencer and Debenhams, who are still in the hunt for space here.’’ 
He said while international brands had attracted shoppers from all over Melbourne it had been the increase in CBD and surrounds residential and workforce population that had driven the rise in food &amp; beverage and services retailing.
"This is a demographic change that reflects what you might call a cultural shift with Melburnians, once wedded firmly to the suburban quarter acre block, now showing a definite penchant for inner-city apartments," he aded.
"That’s a development which is here to stay and that will continue to be a key driver in the make-up of CBD retail. At the same time Melbourne remains the fashion capital and is also firmly on the radar with tourist shoppers and those factors will also drive the CBD market for the foreseeable future.’’ 
The survey found little movement in rents which now range between $1,500 a square metre, for CBD shopping centre space, to circa $11,000 a square metre for prime space on Bourke Street Mall.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Melbourne CBD retail vacancies tighten: Savills

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The latest Industrial South report from Burgess Rawson for Western Australia has shown an increase in demand for vacant land around Bibra Lake, Jandakot and Forrest Dale.
Demand for warehouses in the Myaree region is down. 
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