Resources

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Minister for Water, Property and Housing, Melinda Pavey, today announced that she would take the water resource plans for eight surface water areas back to the stakeholder advisory panels for comment prior to submitting to the Commonwealth for accreditation.
"In December last year I promised to complete the consultation, and not be rushed by deadlines that did not recognise the pressures put on our rural communities by what remains a significant drought in the NSW Murray-Darling Basin,” Mrs Pavey said.
“The community has made a huge effort to comment on the draft plans during the public exhibition phase last year. Now I want to go back to the stakeholder advisory panels with an analysis of key community concerns, and make sure these have been adequately considered in the latest draft."
“It is vital that we close the loop with stakeholders before the water resource plans are submitted to the Commonwealth for assessment and accreditation.”
Mrs Pavey said the Stakeholder Advisory Panels will be convened for the regulated river valleys and the Barwon-Darling during March.
"NSW water sharing plans form the engine room of water resource plans. I’ve asked the Department to put these on its website, showing the changes from the publicly exhibited versions, so that communities can see how their concerns have been addressed. This is part of my commitment to transparency in water management,” Mrs Pavey said.
“I have made it clear that these plans won’t be submitted until the community have had their say.”
The consultations will include:
· Murray Lower Darling – Deneliquin – March 18, 2020
· Murrumbidgee - Griffith -19 March
· Barwon Darling – Bouke - 24 March
· Namoi – Narrabri - 30 March
· Namoi – Tamworth - 31 March
· Gwydir - Moree - 1 April
· Border Rivers – Goondiwindi - 2 April
· Lachlan - Parkes - 7 April
· Macquarie – Dubbo - 8 April
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Minister Melinda Pavey gathers water resource plans for NSW

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From 1900 to 2010, the amount of materials accumulated in buildings and infrastructure across the world increased <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/8/1880.full" target="_blank">23-fold</a>. We are depleting our resources at <a href="http://uneplive.unep.org/" target="_blank">unprecedented rates</a>. Instead of extracting dwindling raw materials from nature at ever-increasing cost, the time has come to start re-using materials from buildings and infrastructure in our cities.
We have been working on identifying the material resources in cities that could be “mined” for re-use. In a case study, we modelled more than 13,000 buildings in central Melbourne, Australia. We estimated the quantities of construction materials as well as the embodied energy, water and greenhouse gas emissions associated with constructing these buildings (if they were built today). We also modelled the replacement of materials over time and into the future.
The extraction and transformation of resources have broad environmental effects. These include resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, soil and water pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions, which drive climate change.
Adding to these challenges is the amount of waste generated, especially by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cleaning-up-the-construction-industry-31" target="_blank">construction sector</a> due to construction, renovation and demolition activities. Every time a construction material is discarded, all the embodied energy, water and emissions that went into producing it also go to waste.
In our two <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2016.11.043" target="_blank">recent</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.022">studies</a>, we propose a model that can help us “mine” our cities and quantify the environmental benefits of this urban mining.
<h2>Modelling all buildings in a city</h2>
We used the City of Melbourne, representing the central business district and immediate surrounds, as a case study. This is because the City of Melbourne offers open-source and high-resolution data that allowed us to model the materials found in individual buildings.
By combining the <a href="http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/about-melbourne/research-and-statistics/city-economy/census-land-use-employment/Pages/clue.aspx" target="_blank">Census of Land Use and Employment database</a> with the <a href="https://data.melbourne.vic.gov.au/Property-Planning/Building-Footprints-2015/pv8y-ihee" target="_blank">Building Footprints database</a>, we had access to basic geometric and construction-related data for each of the 14,385 buildings in this area in 2015. Of these, we modelled 13,075, as some very small or unique buildings (stadiums, railway stations, etc.) had to be discarded. We used 48 building archetypes, based on the building type (e.g. office), construction year (e.g. 1987) and height (e.g. 25 metres), to represent the different buildings in the city.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196841/original/file-20171129-28866-rzch9i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
More than 13,000 buildings were modelled in the City of Melbourne. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
Results show that the City of Melbourne has a stock of 1.5 million tonnes of materials in every square kilometre. Just replacing worn materials to maintain this built stock is estimated to require 26 thousand tonnes of materials every year.
Rebuilding the City of Melbourne today would use about 10 petajoules of energy and 17.7 million cubic metres of water. The construction would emit 605,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases per square kilometre.
These resource requirements are simply huge. For instance, the energy used for every square kilometre built is enough to drive 700,000 cars from Melbourne to Sydney. Picture all the urban development around the world, then just try to imagine <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-cities-need-to-go-on-a-resource-diet-68984" target="_blank">all the resources required</a>.
Aside from producing these overall estimates, the real value in our model lies in the detail it provides about the use of materials in the city. It can answer questions such as where and when construction materials are needed, and in what quantities. And what are the associated environmental effects?
<h2>Visualising material flows</h2>
For the 13,075 buildings modelled, we ended up with more than 500 million data points. We needed to come up with effective <a href="https://social.shorthand.com/SciDevNet/3geA2Kw4B5c/data-visualisation-contributions-to-evidence-based-decision-making" target="_blank">data visualisation</a> to inform decision-makers about how we can mine cities.
The most important result we found is depicted in a map showing the quantities of each material within each building. We are able to do that for any given year or period. This enables us to track which materials are expected to be replaced in what quantities and in what buildings.
These maps allow us to start thinking of cities as urban mines and places of material production (supply), rather than just consumption (demand).
We can imagine how a new construction project could survey what materials would be available at its start and how it can best re-use these and incorporate them into the design. This would save large amounts of energy and water, while avoiding greenhouse gas emissions and further ecosystem degradation from raw material extraction (usually far from the city).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195142/original/file-20171117-29111-aidrim.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Selected material stock (2015) and embodied energy of the City of Melbourne. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
We borrowed the concept of the age pyramid from population studies to represent the material stock in the city’s buildings. This allows us to understand which materials stay in the stock and for how long.
It also helps us better anticipate when a significant amount of materials is expected to be replaced, resulting in construction waste and a demand for new materials. The maps show where this is going to take place.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/195143/original/file-20171117-15435-1knnu4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
An age pyramid represents the age and quantities of construction materials in the building stock, and helps to better appreciate periods of expected replacement. André Stephan &amp; Aristide Athanassiadis
<h2>Long journey to a circular economy</h2>
While we have produced tools that can help with urban mining, we are still far from a truly <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-a-circular-economy-29666" target="_blank">circular economy</a> for the construction sector.
Firstly, our model suffers from a significant amount of uncertainty: it is only as good as the data we feed it. While the City of Melbourne has good-quality data for its buildings, we really struggle to estimate how long materials last, notably at the scale of a building. We need more research and data to better estimate the material composition of buildings, the periods of material replacements or building refurbishments, as well as the materials released and available for re-use.
Secondly, we need to better design our buildings for disassembly. A material that is being replaced is not directly re-usable in most cases due to wear or damage, possibly during demolition.
If we design and prefabricate modular buildings that can easily be disassembled, we can greatly improve the potential for re-use and recycling. This would help us move towards <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-a-truly-sustainable-world-we-need-zero-waste-cities-10552" target="_blank">zero-waste cities</a>.
A third way forward is to rethink how construction materials and systems are designed and for what purpose. Instead of buying carpet for an office, a company could pay for the service “floor area covered by carpet”. This would shift ownership of the carpet to <a href="http://www.desso.fr/globalaccounts/regus/take-back%E2%84%A2-programme/" target="_blank">the supplier</a>.
In turn, that would create an incentive to produce durable, high-quality materials that could be re-used and recycled, instead of programmed obsolescence. Such business models are already starting to emerge.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87672/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">With our growing global population, finite resources and climate change, we need to move fast towards a more circular construction sector to help ease the pressure on the Earth’s resources and ecosystems. Models such as the ones we are developing are a step forward on a long journey.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andre-stephan-14991" target="_blank">André Stephan</a>, Lecturer in Architectural Engineering, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722" target="_blank">University of Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aristide-athanassiadis-423773" target="_blank">Aristide Athanassiadis</a>, Postdoctoral Researcher, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/universite-libre-de-bruxelles-1220" target="_blank">Université Libre de Bruxelles</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-right-tools-we-can-mine-cities-87672" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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We can mine cities with the right tools

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68984/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVERS
Cities are the epicentres of human activity. They cover less than 2 percent of the earth’s land surface but generate about 70 percent of GDP and house more than half the human population. The importance of cities is only going to increase in coming decades as another 2.5 billion people move to urban centres. 
This intense production and consumption requires huge quantities of natural resources. Cities account for more than 60 percent of global energy use, 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions and 70 percent of global waste. Current practices are depleting the Earth’s finite resources, changing its climate and damaging its natural ecosystems. With our planetary life support system in the red, we need to put cities on a serious resource diet.
<h2>Resources efficiency in the New Urban Agenda</h2>
The New Urban Agenda adopted at the Habitat III conference outlines a vision for sustainable urban development. These global guidelines, along with the related UN Sustainable Development Goals, recognise the need to use resources more efficiently. 
Habitat III included a number of sessions on resource efficiency and associated tools and initiatives. Organisations such as UNEP, UN-Habitat and the European Commission and its research centres typically led these events. The New Urban Agenda includes many references to efficiency and reduced consumption in cities. 
We must now act urgently to translate words into actions. This will ease pressure on ecosystems and produce a range of co-benefits, including health, wellbeing and resilience. 
<h2>How do we create more resource-efficient cities?</h2>
Cities use resources directly, such as burning fossil fuels for electricity and transport. However, indirect uses, such as water for growing food crops, are much wider-reaching. 
It can be overwhelming to consider the resources used for all goods, processes and infrastructure in cities. Yet it is possible to measure this using a systems approach. Instead of considering components in isolation, the entire city is considered as an open system, connected to others. 
This perspective ensures a much broader understanding of complex relationships between scales, resource flows, the built environment, socio-economic factors and ecological outcomes.
There are tools that embrace a systems perspective. For example, the urban metabolism approach considers cities as ecosystems, across which flows of resources (such as energy or water) are measured. Life cycle assessment measures resource use through the entire production, consumption and degradation process of a good or service.
These approaches have been successfully applied at various scales such as cities, neighbourhoods and buildings. This reveals that we are using more resources than shown by traditional assessment techniques (see this example on building energy efficiency regulations). 
But measurement without action has no impact on the ground. How can these tools be used to transform our cities?
Many initiatives are targeting urban resource efficiency. The circular economy paradigm is a good example, where materials are reused, upcycled and recycled. It demonstrates that waste is a human concept and not an inherent property of cities. Waste does not exist in natural systems. 
A range of projects by UNEP, the European Commission and other organisations support local resource efficiency initiatives and encourage local governments to implement related regulations. Blogging, data visualisation and disseminating research all help promote the adoption of resource efficiency concepts. In addition to the pioneering work of groups such as metabolism of cities, the uptake of open data is helping with this.
<h2>Learning from those who already live on less</h2>
Informal settlements provide interesting lessons in resource efficiency. Construction materials in these settlements are typically not very durable. However, because they are in short supply, they are constantly reused or repurposed, almost never discarded. 
Other residents often reuse replaced materials, such as metal sheets, or store them for later use. This practice avoids additional resource use to produce new materials.
Although informal slum areas are often the focus of “upgrading” and improvement, lessons learnt in these settings can enhance material flow management and reduce waste elsewhere in cities.
<h2>Co-benefits of resource efficiency</h2>
More resource-efficient cities tend to result in better health outcomes. For instance, encouraging walking, cycling and public transport instead of car use can reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, and improve population health through increased physical activity. 
Food systems that promote consumption of fresh, local produce can benefit both the environment and nutrition. Energy-efficient housing reduces energy and water use and can improve occupants’ health at the same time.
Resource efficiency can also contribute to urban resilience. Nature-based solutions use relatively few non-renewable materials to increase resilience to environmental change and natural disasters. For example, a park can be designed to be flooded during storms or a tsunami, reduce the urban heat island effect, support urban ecosystems and provide areas for community activities, recreation and urban agriculture.
Efficiency can also ensure that redundancy – a core principle of resilience – is built into urban systems. This means resources can be repurposed in the event of an unanticipated shock or stress. For example, during the recent blackout in South Australia, a household with solar battery storage was able to maintain power for 12 hours “off grid”. 
<h2>Working together for better solutions</h2>
Although these steps move cities in the right direction, more action from governments, the private sector and civil society is needed to transform our growing urban footprints.
Focusing solely on resource efficiency may neglect opportunities to generate co-benefits across sectors and will not provide robust solutions. We need to look at the entire city as a system and work together, across all disciplines, with effective and strong governance structures that support integrated policy definition and long-term implementation. If we don’t, we might simply shift a problem from one area to another, increase resource demand elsewhere, or create social divisions and tensions. 
Strong leadership, political stability, effective institutions and awareness-raising among citizens are vital factors for success. Urban resource efficiency is critical, but it should be considered along all other pressing issues highlighted in the New Urban Agenda.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andre-stephan-14991" target="_blank">André Stephan </a>is postdoctoral research fellow, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alexei-trundle-11956" target="_blank">Alexei Trundle</a> is PhD candidate, Australian-German Climate &amp; Energy College, University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dave-kendal-180942" rel="author">Dave Kendal</a> is researcher, Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria (ARCUE), University of Melbourne.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hayley-henderson-288490" target="_blank">Hayley Henderson</a> is PhD candidate in Urban Planning, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hesam-kamalipour-288498" rel="author">Hesam Kamalipour</a> is PhD candidate and Research Assistant in Urban Design, University of Melbourne
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/melanie-lowe-288493" target="_blank">Melanie Lowe</a> is research fellow, McCaughey VicHealth Community Wellbeing Unit, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Our cities need to go on a resource diet

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New South Wales is poised to lead the country in growth in the next two years, topping Victoria, even as the overall economy remains weak and the pain continues for the resources-powered economies of Queensland, NT and Western Australia.
According to the latest Economic Outlook bulletin by leading industry analyst BIS Shrapnel, the Australian economy will remain weak for some years yet until the non-mining sectors start to drive growth. However, the boost due to investment in housing will decline as as state-by-state housing peaks, and then falls, it adds.
<a href="/images/BISShrapnel1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/BISShrapnel1.png" alt="">
"The structural shift has begun – albeit with years to come," says the report.
A lower dollar has boosted the key tradeables sectors: tourism, education services, agriculture, manufacturing industries and some business services, which power the economies of NSW and Victoria, the report says. The trade-exposed states of NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, which had suffered under the high dollar from 2007 to 2014 – are now strengthening because of the increased competitiveness from the lower dollar.
“This is a major reversal in interstate relativities from just four years ago,” said BIS Shrapnel senior economist and report author, Richard Robinson.
“For most of the decade to 2012, the mining investment boom saw Western Australia, Queensland and, more recently, the Northern Territory, record by far the strongest economic growth. Now, with the resources investment boom well into a substantial decline – and with more to come – they have been overtaken by NSW and Victoria. The pendulum is swinging away from the mining boom regions and states, and towards the states now being boosted by the lower dollar and their non-mining tradeables and services sectors.”
The peak in the mining boom and subsequent falls in both resources investment and commodity prices coincided with the 30 per cent decline in the Australian dollar (against the US dollar) to US72 cents in the March quarter 2016, although the dollar has since risen to US76 cents.
Among the states, there will continue to be marked differences in State Final Demand (SFD) according to the outlook for investment, which in turn will be a key influence on the prospects for employment and consumer spending in each state. Rising public investment in virtually all states will make a positive contribution to SFD growth.
This spending will also boost state output (Gross State Product) and employment, because public investment in infrastructure and buildings conveys significant multipliers through the economy via its high local content – except when governments don’t purchase local materials, such as steel.
<a href="/images/2016/11/14/BISShrapnel2.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/14/BISShrapnel2.png" alt="">
"Dwellings investment also has high local multipliers, but the boost from this upswing is now set to diminish and then decline, as state-by-state housing peaks, and then falls. But it is the wide differences in the cycles of business investment which will have the most impact in determining state outcomes – particularly with regard to mining investment versus non-mining business investment."
These differences in investment and growth outcomes are a reflection of the structural change process which started with the upswing of the mining investment boom. This structural adjustment still has a few years before it finishes and the Australian economy returns to the balanced economy enjoyed before the mining boom.
“The temptation is to use the last decade’s growth as a benchmark against which to measure current progress. But the last decade was abnormal. It involved significant structural change as non-mining industries and investment ‘made room’ for the mining boom,” said Robinson. “We won’t simply see a uniform recovery over the next decade across industries and the states, back to the peak levels of the last decade. There will again be significant structural changes affecting the performances of industries and regions, this time away from mining and back to the non-mining industries that made room.
“That process will continue for some years yet. The norm isn’t a return to the averages of last decade, but a return to the pre-mining boom growth of the decade before. The Australian economy will remain weak for some years yet until non-mining sectors take over as the engine of growth.
“And while we navigate this structural change and major cyclical shifts, we’ll also have to cope with any fall-out from President-elect Donald Trump’s more outlandish policies – should his campaign rhetoric be translated into actual policies. But we’re optimistic that little of the more dangerous policies will be enacted, and that the world economy will continue to limp along.”
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Years of structural shift to come for Australian economy: BIS Shrapnel 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The housing market is certainly patchy across the nation, however it was encouraging to see some of the resource states seeing a decent lift in prices over October.
In addition prices fell in just two of the eight capital cities. Policymakers would be encouraged about more balanced home price growth across the nation but it would take a few more months to feel comfortable, and they would need to see a lift in regional house prices. Annual growth in home prices across regional centres was just 1.1 percent over the past 12 months.
What is clear is that prices are still rising in the strong markets of Sydney and Melbourne. In fact annual growth in Sydney home prices remains just shy of 11 percent and growth remains close to 10 percent in Melbourne.
<a href="/images/2016/11/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-01%20at%201.14.17%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-01%20at%201.14.17%20PM.png" alt="">
Still, given the amount of new homes being built at present in Sydney and Melbourne, national home prices may slow over the coming year.
The latest home price data doesn’t stand in the way of the Reserve Bank cutting rates over the next couple of months. The Reserve Bank has regularly noted that housing supply will lift over coming years as work is completed on the bevy of new homes – especially apartments. On balance inflation will be more of a deciding factor when it comes to debating the merits of another rate cut.
The latest Australian manufacturing data is encouraging, suggesting that the current levels of interest rates and the Australian dollar are working in favour of domestic producers. No doubt the sector is also benefitting from the stronger demand now that Brexit and the Federal Election are out of the way. 
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in October and was up 7.5 percent over the year.
In regional Australia, house prices rose by 0.9 percent in September and were just 1.1 percent higher than a year ago. (regional prices cover just houses and data is up to the end of September).
In capital cities, house prices rose by 0.5 percent in October while apartment prices rose by 0.6 percent. House prices were up 7.7 percent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.3 percent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $615,000 and the average unit price was $520,000.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in October: Darwin (up 2.2 percent) followed by Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane (all up 0.8 percent); Sydney (up 0.6 percent); and Canberra (up 0.4 percent). Prices fell most in Adelaide (down 2.4 percent), followed by Hobart (down 2.1 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/11/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-01%20at%201.14.24%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/01/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-01%20at%201.14.24%20PM.png" alt="">
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 10.6 percent); followed by Melbourne (up 9.1 percent), Canberra (up 7.9 percent); Hobart (up 5.0 percent); Brisbane (up 4.1 percent) and Adelaide (up 2.5 percent). Prices fell in Darwin (down 3.8 percent) and Perth (down by 3.7 percent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to October rose by 11.2 percent with houses up 11.3 percent on a year earlier and units up 10.9 percent.
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 1.1 points to 50.9 in October. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. The index had been above 50 for 13 months up until August 2016 – the longest period of expansion since September 2006.
AIG notes “The rise was driven by stronger growth in exports, sales and new orders, which highlights the growing importance of exports to manufacturers and suggests further growth ahead.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The CoreLogic Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group compiles the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Latest data shows that the Australian economy remains in good shape.  
The transition from manufacturing to services in China is proceeding well. The manufacturing sector is tracking sideways while the services sector is taking up the slack and expanding nicely. A case of so far, so good. 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a> </div>
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Resource states seeing healthier home prices: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64542/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Some well known resource stocks in Australia have reported major losses, including US$6.38 billion for BHP Billiton over the past year and US$1.1 billion for Santos over the past six months.
These losses have largely been driven by lower commodity prices, which in turn is the result of a slowing Chinese economy and weak global growth rates. But the bigger question is whether this most recent downturn is heralding a long term decline in mining activities.
Commentators throughout history have predicted that minerals and energy production would eventually decline because of resource depletion and rising costs. One of the most well-known theories is Peak Oil, originally developed by King Hubbert in the 1950s. This theory explained how many oil fields have a bell-shaped production function from discovery through to exhaustion.
This was used to predict the year and level of when the industry would hit maximum supply. Since then this same concept of an inevitable ‘peak’ has been widely applied to other commodities, to describe when global production might reach maximum levels.
However these predictions of maximum production outputs continue to be surpassed. Hubbert’s original projections were that global oil production would peak in 1995 when actual annual production has continued to grow steadily since then to be about 55% higher. In fact the slump in oil prices since 2014 have largely been caused by excess supply (together with the effects of lower growth in China and other economies).
<div id="responsive-iframe-0">Understanding why resource production continues to grow even when depletion must be occurring, provides some hints as to the future of commodities. The first is that mineral commodities tend to be driven by long term cyclical forces, particularly on the supply side.</div>
Higher resource prices, as seen in the 2003-2012 resources boom, drove huge investments into new production, both in Australia and overseas. That growth in supply is now maturing because of the long lead time to get new projects developed, with virtually no new projects approved since 2012.
Oversupply causes lower prices and shuts off new projects; there is often a long hiatus until the next boom because of an expanding supply base and the buffering effects of inventories.
The second pointer is that there are a variety of structural factors that shift both supply and demand. The key factors on the supply side are new discoveries and better technologies; these increase potential supply over time.
On the demand side, increased development of renewables and more efficient energy systems can systematically lower fossil fuel demand, while countries typically have lower metals requirements once industrialisation has been achieved. It was the combination of cyclical forces, such as lower economic growth, and structural changes in both supply and demand factors that led to the post-2012 slowdown in commodity prices.
Some analysts have focused on the structural changes, arguing for example that greater generation of renewable energy and improved productivity will lower fossil fuel demands permanently. However it is unlikely that structural changes have been enough to date to outweigh increases in demand when the economic cycle moves more strongly into a growth phase.
For example the International Energy Agency in 2015 predicted that world energy demand would grow by nearly one-third between 2013 and 2040, and even though renewables will be the fastest growing sector there is still likely to be some growth in coal and oil consumption to meet the balance of needs.
The third pointer is that the major slump in commodity prices over the past three years has focused the minerals sector on cost-cutting and efficiency. This has been more intense than in previous downturns, but the end result is that production costs are much lower than in 2012.
As a result, any rebound in resource prices, as has occurred across some commodities this year, will not have to be as large for operations to be profitable. In essence the cyclical downturn has forced a structural reduction in operating expenses that will make the industry more resilient to future commodity cycles.
This broad summary papers over a number of factors that influence individual commodities; these include government regulation, exploration policies, controls on supply, market access, taxation and support policies, infrastructure access and charges, labour markets and technology drivers. While those factors help to explain movements between sectors, it is the cyclical forces of global demand and global supply that drive prices and returns for Australian companies.
Analysts should also keep in mind that the company accounting systems do not fully reflect all environmental costs; for example responsibilities for mine rehabilitation tends to be underestimated and there is no current system to internalise the spillover costs of greenhouse emissions. Regulatory and accounting systems need to be improved so that all environmental impacts and liabilities are fully recorded, particularly if a cyclical upturn in the future stimulates growth again in the sector.
John Rolfe is professor of Regional Economic Development, School of Business and Law, CQUniversity Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-rolfe-1894" target="_blank">here</a>.
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