Residential Prices

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Come in spinner or should that be spinners?
In a property week that can only be described as unprecedented we have had the prime minister, treasurer and newly elected NSW premier all declare that they are going to tackle housing affordability.
Previously housing affordability was a bit like going to your doctor for the annual check-up where after your consultation you advise the doctor that you don’t need to see the results. For years and years, our elected politicians have refused point blank to accept any responsibility for being the actual cause of this problem.
The new premier is already stumbling and stuttering where she stated that the heart of the problem is supply so NSW must build more properties. We all know that, this is only a part of the problem, so then the remedies moved to negative gearing (a federal problem) which explains why the prime minister has been silent following his announcement that he too, will personally pursue the housing affordability issues in Australia.
Next, the premier stated that she needed to make sure that the state’s finances are in order before she considers changing stamp duty. I would refer the premier to her media release on December 15, 2016. “NSW has recorded the lowest unemployment rate of the nation for 18 consecutive months and has widened its lead over the next strongest state, the latest ABS data shows. Our unemployment rate is by far the lowest in the nation and demonstrates our economic strength.”
Of course, the premier may always wish to investigate just why in Sydney we presently have public transport considered to be amongst the worst in the world. Back in November 2012 a global survey of 27 of the most important cities in the world ranked Sydney as fourth – worst for public transport. To make matters worse the survey also identified that Sydneysiders pay more for public transport than anywhere else.
Despite that embarrassing finding where our public transport would be even worse since that survey NSW continues to attract more than 50 per cent of the residential investment spend in Australia. On top of that it was revealed this week that the Sydney median house price had climbed a further ten percent in 2016 to now sit at $1,123,991 – another new record.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/29/Investor-Lending.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/29/Investor-Lending.png" alt="">
Most people already know the answer to Australia’s housing affordability woes – look no further than the Henry Tax Review that was commissioned back in 2008 then published in 2010 only to be ignored by elected politicians because it was too hard and significantly threatened their parliamentary pensions. The report consisted of nine broad themes with point 8 stating – “Toward more affordable housing: substantially increase rent assistance, gradually move to a uniform land tax and remove transfer taxes (stamp duty), and gradually move to a neutral treatment of rental and owner – occupied housing.”
The Henry Tax Review has now come back with a vengeance and deservedly biting our politicians where it hurts. Although the real reason why NSW refuses to make changes to Stamp Duty is succinctly explained in the following graph.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/29/NSW-Stamp-Duty.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/29/NSW-Stamp-Duty.png" alt="">
In Australia, currently the Top 10 taxes deliver 90 per cent of Australia’s taxation revenues. Three of the state taxes are in the Top 10 taxes by revenue collected, although these three state taxes are at the bottom of the Top 10 and represent less than 11 per cent of all tax revenues.
Many simply say increase the taxes for foreign buyers, although there are major issues on that horizon when this week two major Chinese private providers of home price data stopped publishing figures so what’s happening to the home-grown Chinese property markets? The Chinese Index Academy stopped distributing monthly housing price data for 100 cities which was usually made available at the commencement of each month. The Academy told Reuters last Friday, it had suspended distribution indefinitely and then politely declined to provide a reason.
Coincidentally on New Year’s Eve the Chinese government issued a statement that effectively makes it much harder for Chinese investors to now get their money out of China. In an email I received on January 5 here are the key points.
<ul>
<li>The individual annual foreign exchange purchase quota of $50,000 is unchanged.</li>
<li>Banks are “encouraged” to increase scrutiny of currency transfers.</li>
<li>Banks must report any overseas transfers by individuals of US$10,000 or more.</li>
<li>Starting in July 2017, banks and other financial institutions in China will have to report all domestic and overseas cash transactions of more than 50,000 yuan ($7,201), compared with the current amount of 200,000 yuan.</li>
<li>Beijing is signalling to banks, companies and individuals that it disapproves of foreign spending and investment, except for a few purposes that are explicitly defined by the government (e.g. buying foreign-made machinery to increase the efficiency of a Chinese factory).</li>
<li>Overseas property investment has been called out by at least one major Chinese bank as insufficient reason for transferring money abroad.</li>
</ul>
With great interest, we shall watch very carefully how the Chinese buyers perform in 2017 especially as very little (actually nothing) has been written on these forced changes by the Chinese government.
Housing affordability will be major election issues at forthcoming state and federal elections and that could not happen to a nicer group of politicians who have been complicit by neglecting these issues for decades.
Oh and on Australia Day, 2014 Mosman had 68 houses on the market, 2015 it fell to 58, then in 2016 it fell to 45 and this week it’s 25.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Politicians to battle housing affordability - an oxymoron? Robert Simeon

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It’s only a matter of time before Melbourne overtakes Sydney as the price growth leader in capital city Australia.
Pretty much everyone now accepts that Sydney is subsiding, as every available statistic confirms what Hotspotting research has been telling us all year – that Sydney activity peaked late in 2014 and has been on a slow fade right throughout 2015.
Melbourne, however, continues to rise.
In the latest price data from CoreLogic, up to the end of October, the annual price growth gap between Sydney and Melbourne has closed considerably. In the past three months, Melbourne’s home value index has increased 3.1%, easily the biggest among the capital cities, while Sydney’s rose only 1.5%.
In annual terms, Sydney is up 15.6% and Melbourne 12.8%. In a month or two, those positions will be reversed.
The reason Sydney is still above Melbourne at the moment, despite Sydney fading while Melbourne is rising, is that the price data is many months behind the game. 
On ABC TV yesterday business commentator Alan Kohler displayed a graph which suggested a correlation between auction clearance rates and median price movements, but with a time lag of several months in the reaction of prices.
(Kohler, incidentally, made the mistake of placing great emphasis on the monthly movement in the city price indexes – he should know that month-to-month changes in statistics are often meaningless aberrations. Many of the monthly movements are contradicted by the quarterly changes, which are far more significant.)
It’s taken quite a long time for Sydney prices to respond to the slowdown in activity, but history shows this is quite normal. It also shows that median prices are rather a blunt instrument for measuring the state of markets. Sales volumes are far more revealing and can put you ahead of the game in terms of likely price movements.
The latest sales data shows that Melbourne has been rising steadily throughout this calendar year, quite the opposite to Sydney. 
Each quarter has shown an uptick in sales activity, with the greatest momentum occurring away from the millionaire suburbs close to the CBD. This may explain why Melbourne clearance rates are dropping at a time when overall sales activity is rising and the overall city median is rising – the busiest markets are those less likely to use auctions.
There are still plenty of strong middle market areas – notably the municipalities of Whitehorse (Box Hill, Nunuwading, Blackburn), Monash (Oakleigh, Mt Waverley, Clayton) and Knox (Wantirna, Boronia, Bayswater) – but the greatest momentum is now the outer ring precincts. Locations likely to attract first time buyers and others on smaller budgets are really pumping in Melbourne. 
The LGAs of Whittlesea (Epping, Thomastown, Mill Park) and Hume (Sunbury, Roxborough Park, Gladstone Park) in the north of the metropolitan area are among the market leaders on activity.
In the far south-east, the Casey LGA (Cranbourne, Doveton, Endeavour Hills) has numerous strong markets, while Brimbank (Sunshine, Deer Park, Cairnlea) in the western suburbs is being greatly boosted by infrastructure spending and urban renewal projects.
Wyndham City LGA in the south-west has surged. In Point Cook, for example, sales numbers in the past six quarters have been 289, 313, 350, 396, 395 and 420. Other suburbs in this LGA, such as Werribee, Hoppers Crossing and Wyndham Vale, have similar patterns.
When sales volumes surge like that, prices follow – with a time lag.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When sales volumes surge, prices follow: Terry Ryder on Melbourne's outer ring

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On Wednesday night I watched finance commentator Alan Kohler on ABC TV puzzling over the apparent contradiction of sharply-falling loans to investors and rising prices in the major cities.
His basic message was: it doesn’t make sense and it can’t continue. 
His basis problem was: it didn’t occur to him that some of the data he was presenting might be rubbish.
He shares this problem with commentators, economists and journalists right across Australia. No one ever questions the real estate data that’s pumped out by publicity-addicted research companies – not even when it’s patently absurd and clearly wrong.
We had the situation recently where one of big research firms published figures showing that house prices fell in six of the eight capital cities in the March Quarter. That was treated as gospel and interpreted as evidence that the alleged boom was over.
Around the same time another of the big numbers companies published figures claiming that house prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in the March Quarter. That result was reported as truth as well, with no one (apart from me, it seems) noticing that the two sets of figures totally contradicted one another and that two conflicting messages were being sent to the public. 
One source said Adelaide was leading the nation on price growth while another said its prices were falling at the fastest rate since 2012.
So back to Kohler who is very good at making sense of share-market events and economic data, but not so bright when it comes to real estate. He displayed a graph suggesting loans to investors have dived. He attributed this to the crackdown by APRA and the reaction of major lenders.
That was starkly at odds with reports in media only days earlier, claiming that “investors have begun flooding back into the market”. Newspapers reported that investors were 47.6% of all new mortgage commitments in March, the highest proportion since August 2015. This was attributed to “some lenders reversing the tighter lending requirements that were previously in place”. 
So Kohler’s graph told quite the opposite story to the figures published elsewhere. And he made the incorrect assumption – the Labor Party is making the same mistake with its negative gearing policy – that price rises are caused exclusively by investors.
His next problem - his confusion over prices rising so much against a background of apparently plummeting investor lending – was based on his blind acceptance of the May price growth figures from CoreLogic.
Like so many journalists and commentators, he fell into the trap of (a) accepting published figures as unchallengeable and (b) placing big emphasis on month-to-month movements. He’s been around long enough to know better. 
Much of the data purporting to depict monthly changes in prices in our major cities is worthless. Indeed, it’s worst than worthless, because it’s misleading and causes confusion for consumers. 
The CoreLogic figures for May would have us believe that the apartment prices rose 8.4 percent in Hobart. Seriously? Hobart units have added 8.4 percent in value in a single month? I visited Hobart just a week ago and there is nothing happening in that market to justify that figure, nor the one that says Hobart unit prices have risen almost 19 percent in the past 12 months. These figures are made of an artificial elastomer synthesized from petroleum byproducts (they’re rubbery).
The same research source claims that Darwin apartments prices fell 10 percent in the month of May; that Canberra apartment prices fell 6 percent; that Perth prices fell 6.3 percent; and that Sydney house prices rose 3.6 percent. All those dramatic movements in property values in a single month – are they believable? I would suggest not. 
Everyone reporting these numbers has expressed breathless amazement, but it hasn’t occurred to anyone that maybe the figures are a tad sus – or that short-term movements in median prices or value indexes are essentially irrelevant because a month is too short a time frame to deliver a meaningful pattern.
If you examine month-to-month movements in anything – retail spending, building approvals, the jobs market, you name it – you’ll find the numbers are quite erratic. Often they’re just statistical aberrations, but economists will be lining up to attribute great significance to them. 
Only the long-term trend matters and only that should be reported - and then only with care, because you can be sure that the numbers you’re recording today will be contradicted by another set from other source tomorrow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Some data depicting monthly residential price changes is worthless: Terry Ryder

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The Department of Treasury's Working Paper into perceived links between foreign investment and residential property price growth has been released with statistics finding the driver of the majority of recent price growth could not be attributable to increased foreign demand.
The study found the majority of foreign residential purchases are of the new property, not existing and foreign demand has accounted for only a small proportion of the increase in property prices over recent years.
The release said other factors such as interest rates, financial deregulation, incomes, demographics [population growth] and the prices of alternative investments, such as equities, have played a role.
"Given that in the short run the supply of residential property is relatively fixed so any increase in demand, whether domestic or foreign, should result in higher prices," it said.
"Indeed, there have been many other significant domestic drivers of property prices over the period examined.
"The majority of foreign investment approvals are for new as opposed to established dwellings.
"This provides some indication that, in the longer-term, foreign demand is increasing property supply consistent with Australia’s foreign investment framework."
Charles Pittar, chief executive officer of Chinese international property website Juwai.com said the Parliamentary Inquiry into foreign investment found the same thing three years ago, although without the impressive statistics.
"The results are no surprise and they confirm what we have said for years," he said.
"Offshore buyers drive huge benefits for the Australian real estate market and economy, as well as billions of dollars of job growth and physical investment in new housing. "I'm not sure how many minds it will change. For most people, it's just too easy to blame an easily identifiable group like offshore buyers when prices get hot. "It sounds a bit harsh for the FIRB to say Australian property buyers have a 'herd mentality,' but we certainly love our real estate." "Most experts believe Sydney and Melbourne are heading for price slowdowns. If we want to keep adding new homes to the supply despite that, then we need to encourage foreign buyers - rather than push them away."
The report can be downloaded <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Publications/2016/Foreign-Investment-and-Residential-Property-Price-Growth" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

FIRB study fails to link foreign buyers to high residential price growth

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Houses in Dubbo, the NSW Central Coast and Newcastle are at the peak of the market cycle according to analyst firm Herron Todd White's property clock for houses in September.
Houses in Melbourne, the NSW Central Coast and Newcastle were at the <a href="/news/56761-melbourne-the-nsw-central-coast-and-newcastle-houses-at-market-peak-htw" target="_blank">peak of the market cycle in August</a>.
Melbourne has been amended back to a rising market.
Bundaberg and Toowoomba are in decline. Townsville and the Whitsundays are at the bottom on the market.
<a href="/images/2016/09/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-16%20at%2010.50.38%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
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HTW said away for the beachside suburbs in the NSW Central Coast to the outer lying suburbs, a whole identity is being established with new land being created to cater for new and affordable housing requirements.
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"These areas include the Warnervale Release Area which includes the suburbs of Woongarrah, Hamlyn Terrace and Wadalba. The land created has consistently enjoyed a good take up rate and new, project style homes are abundant in these areas," it said.
"So if there is an embedded but not yet traditional style of housing, the emergence of housing estates would have to be it. The underlying reason for the growth in popularity of this style of housing can be linked to the influx of buyers from Sydney who have found themselves out priced there.
"To many, the affordability and better lifestyle has proven a blessing."
Around Newcastle, according to HTW, Nelson Bay's housing market has undergone significant changes in recent times.
"There is anecdotal evidence is showing the market has stabilised somewhat in 2016, however Nelson Bay is still experiencing considerable activity in home renovation and investment, particularly in units."
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Houses in Dubbo, NSW Central Coast and Newcastle at market peak: HTW property clock

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CoreLogic's latest capital city housing market indicator has found Sydney home values increased by less than 4 percent over the past three months, Melbourne's by 3.4 percent and Canberra up by 1 percent.
Sydney home values have increased by 3.9 percent over the past three months and are 9.4 percent higher over the past year. The annual rate of value growth has slowed from a peak of 18.4 percent in July 2015
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.25%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.25%20PM.png" alt="">
Melbourne home values have increased by 3.4 percent over the past three months and are 9.1 percent higher over the past year. The annual rate of value growth has slowed from a peak of 14.2 percent in September 2015
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.37%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.37%20PM.png" alt="">
Brisbane home values have fallen by 05 percent over the past three months and are 4.4 percent higher over the past year. Over the past five years, Brisbane home values have increased by a total of 12.2 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.44%20PM.png" alt="">
Adelaide home values have fallen by 0.8 percent over the past three months and are 3.1 percent higher over the past year. Values have increased by just 7.0 percent over the past five years.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.55%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.28.55%20PM.png" alt="">
Perth home values have fallen by 1.5 percent over the past three months and are 4.2 percent lower over the past year. Values have fallen by 8.1 percent from their peak in December 2014.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.02%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.02%20PM.png" alt="">
Hobart home values have increased by 2.0 percent over the past three months and are 6.5 percent higher over the past year. Values have increased by just 14.1 percent over the past 10 years.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.10%20PM.png" alt="">
Darwin home values have fallen by 3.9 percent over the past three months and are 4.2 percent lower over the past year. Values are currently 9.1 percent lower than their recent peak in May 2014.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.18%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.18%20PM.png" alt="">
Canberra home values have increased by 1.0 percent over the past three months and are 7.6 percent higher over the past year. Values have increased by just 12.6 percent over the past five years.
<a href="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.25%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/CoreLogic_Graphs/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-06%20at%201.29.25%20PM.png" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra home values on the up: CoreLogic

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GUST OBSERVER
We have compared some sales data on Airlie Beach and Cannonvale units against Mackay units. 
When looking at the Mackay unit sales (not Mackay Harbour),  the number of sales has dropped from a high 215 sales in 2013 to financial year 2016 only recording 40 sales (median price $283,000). Mackay Harbour achieved 7 sales throughout the 2016 financial year, which was down from 30 sales in the 2011 financial year (median price $465,000). Cannonvale units have bounced back a little in the number of sales with 78 recorded sales, up from 52 sales in the 2015 financial year (median price $290,000 – up from $250,000).
<a href="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.09.48%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.09.48%20PM.png" alt="">
Airlie Beach unit sales have been reasonably consistent last year with 72 sales, which is down from 84 in the previous year. 
The median price has dropped to $348,000. It is interesting to see the difference in the median prices for the units at Mackay comparing to Airlie Beach. In my mind, the units in Airlie Beach still represent great value for money when you can get an excellent ocean view starting as low as $230,000. The tourism numbers coming into the region are still going very strong and this is reflecting on the gross income on the holiday let apartments. 
Stephanie Bacon from our sales team has a severely reduced apartment at the Port of Airlie for only $635,000 which has income statements of an identical unit in the complex that is 100 percent holiday let for well over $80,000 per annum.
<a href="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.11.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.11.28%20PM.png" alt="">
 
On a net basis this is around 4 percent which is very unusual for holiday letting properties in Airlie Beach. 
Most holiday let apartments return between 2 percent and 3 percent nett. 
Add the fact that the complex is one of the highest rated complexes in the area and it could be the best buy in your portfolio. <a href="https://campaign.raywhite.com/collect/click.aspx?u=9GxQQ+FJ4ndpBD8fNX7G8KClk3SSuzTl45qNoLo6BuasQ/3DOXSINysEh1ywyRwxrIldNM9w6T4ciReJKplyDA==&amp;rh=ff0096295de6c5cc6f21e214cf46a47315f84bb7" target="_blank"></a>
 Mark Beale is principal of Ray White Whitsunday and can be contacted <a href="https://raywhitewhitsunday.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Whitsunday price performance compared to Mackay

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May proved a relatively positive quarter for Australia’s housing market, according to Residex.
Of the house markets, the Hobart market recorded the strongest quarterly growth gains in May with the median house increasing in value by 2.59 percent.
This was followed by country NSW houses, which posted 2.39 percent growth for the quarter.
In the unit market, the median Hobart unit increased by a shocking 6.66 percent in the May quarter. Regional Queensland was a very distant second, where median units increased by 2.44 percent over the same time period.
Table 1: May 2016 Summary
<a href="/images/2016/06/28/Table_1_May16_Statistics_Summary.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><img src="/images/2016/06/28/Table_1_May16_Statistics_Summary.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
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