Residential Prices

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GUST OBSERVER
We have compared some sales data on Airlie Beach and Cannonvale units against Mackay units. 
When looking at the Mackay unit sales (not Mackay Harbour),  the number of sales has dropped from a high 215 sales in 2013 to financial year 2016 only recording 40 sales (median price $283,000). Mackay Harbour achieved 7 sales throughout the 2016 financial year, which was down from 30 sales in the 2011 financial year (median price $465,000). Cannonvale units have bounced back a little in the number of sales with 78 recorded sales, up from 52 sales in the 2015 financial year (median price $290,000 – up from $250,000).
<a href="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.09.48%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.09.48%20PM.png" alt="">
Airlie Beach unit sales have been reasonably consistent last year with 72 sales, which is down from 84 in the previous year. 
The median price has dropped to $348,000. It is interesting to see the difference in the median prices for the units at Mackay comparing to Airlie Beach. In my mind, the units in Airlie Beach still represent great value for money when you can get an excellent ocean view starting as low as $230,000. The tourism numbers coming into the region are still going very strong and this is reflecting on the gross income on the holiday let apartments. 
Stephanie Bacon from our sales team has a severely reduced apartment at the Port of Airlie for only $635,000 which has income statements of an identical unit in the complex that is 100 percent holiday let for well over $80,000 per annum.
<a href="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.11.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-02%20at%201.11.28%20PM.png" alt="">
 
On a net basis this is around 4 percent which is very unusual for holiday letting properties in Airlie Beach. 
Most holiday let apartments return between 2 percent and 3 percent nett. 
Add the fact that the complex is one of the highest rated complexes in the area and it could be the best buy in your portfolio. <a href="https://campaign.raywhite.com/collect/click.aspx?u=9GxQQ+FJ4ndpBD8fNX7G8KClk3SSuzTl45qNoLo6BuasQ/3DOXSINysEh1ywyRwxrIldNM9w6T4ciReJKplyDA==&amp;rh=ff0096295de6c5cc6f21e214cf46a47315f84bb7" target="_blank"></a>
 Mark Beale is principal of Ray White Whitsunday and can be contacted <a href="https://raywhitewhitsunday.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Whitsunday price performance compared to Mackay

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Come in spinner or should that be spinners?
In a property week that can only be described as unprecedented we have had the prime minister, treasurer and newly elected NSW premier all declare that they are going to tackle housing affordability.
Previously housing affordability was a bit like going to your doctor for the annual check-up where after your consultation you advise the doctor that you don’t need to see the results. For years and years, our elected politicians have refused point blank to accept any responsibility for being the actual cause of this problem.
The new premier is already stumbling and stuttering where she stated that the heart of the problem is supply so NSW must build more properties. We all know that, this is only a part of the problem, so then the remedies moved to negative gearing (a federal problem) which explains why the prime minister has been silent following his announcement that he too, will personally pursue the housing affordability issues in Australia.
Next, the premier stated that she needed to make sure that the state’s finances are in order before she considers changing stamp duty. I would refer the premier to her media release on December 15, 2016. “NSW has recorded the lowest unemployment rate of the nation for 18 consecutive months and has widened its lead over the next strongest state, the latest ABS data shows. Our unemployment rate is by far the lowest in the nation and demonstrates our economic strength.”
Of course, the premier may always wish to investigate just why in Sydney we presently have public transport considered to be amongst the worst in the world. Back in November 2012 a global survey of 27 of the most important cities in the world ranked Sydney as fourth – worst for public transport. To make matters worse the survey also identified that Sydneysiders pay more for public transport than anywhere else.
Despite that embarrassing finding where our public transport would be even worse since that survey NSW continues to attract more than 50 per cent of the residential investment spend in Australia. On top of that it was revealed this week that the Sydney median house price had climbed a further ten percent in 2016 to now sit at $1,123,991 – another new record.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/29/Investor-Lending.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/29/Investor-Lending.png" alt="">
Most people already know the answer to Australia’s housing affordability woes – look no further than the Henry Tax Review that was commissioned back in 2008 then published in 2010 only to be ignored by elected politicians because it was too hard and significantly threatened their parliamentary pensions. The report consisted of nine broad themes with point 8 stating – “Toward more affordable housing: substantially increase rent assistance, gradually move to a uniform land tax and remove transfer taxes (stamp duty), and gradually move to a neutral treatment of rental and owner – occupied housing.”
The Henry Tax Review has now come back with a vengeance and deservedly biting our politicians where it hurts. Although the real reason why NSW refuses to make changes to Stamp Duty is succinctly explained in the following graph.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/29/NSW-Stamp-Duty.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/01/29/NSW-Stamp-Duty.png" alt="">
In Australia, currently the Top 10 taxes deliver 90 per cent of Australia’s taxation revenues. Three of the state taxes are in the Top 10 taxes by revenue collected, although these three state taxes are at the bottom of the Top 10 and represent less than 11 per cent of all tax revenues.
Many simply say increase the taxes for foreign buyers, although there are major issues on that horizon when this week two major Chinese private providers of home price data stopped publishing figures so what’s happening to the home-grown Chinese property markets? The Chinese Index Academy stopped distributing monthly housing price data for 100 cities which was usually made available at the commencement of each month. The Academy told Reuters last Friday, it had suspended distribution indefinitely and then politely declined to provide a reason.
Coincidentally on New Year’s Eve the Chinese government issued a statement that effectively makes it much harder for Chinese investors to now get their money out of China. In an email I received on January 5 here are the key points.
<ul>
<li>The individual annual foreign exchange purchase quota of $50,000 is unchanged.</li>
<li>Banks are “encouraged” to increase scrutiny of currency transfers.</li>
<li>Banks must report any overseas transfers by individuals of US$10,000 or more.</li>
<li>Starting in July 2017, banks and other financial institutions in China will have to report all domestic and overseas cash transactions of more than 50,000 yuan ($7,201), compared with the current amount of 200,000 yuan.</li>
<li>Beijing is signalling to banks, companies and individuals that it disapproves of foreign spending and investment, except for a few purposes that are explicitly defined by the government (e.g. buying foreign-made machinery to increase the efficiency of a Chinese factory).</li>
<li>Overseas property investment has been called out by at least one major Chinese bank as insufficient reason for transferring money abroad.</li>
</ul>
With great interest, we shall watch very carefully how the Chinese buyers perform in 2017 especially as very little (actually nothing) has been written on these forced changes by the Chinese government.
Housing affordability will be major election issues at forthcoming state and federal elections and that could not happen to a nicer group of politicians who have been complicit by neglecting these issues for decades.
Oh and on Australia Day, 2014 Mosman had 68 houses on the market, 2015 it fell to 58, then in 2016 it fell to 45 and this week it’s 25.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Politicians to battle housing affordability - an oxymoron? Robert Simeon

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It’s only a matter of time before Melbourne overtakes Sydney as the price growth leader in capital city Australia.
Pretty much everyone now accepts that Sydney is subsiding, as every available statistic confirms what Hotspotting research has been telling us all year – that Sydney activity peaked late in 2014 and has been on a slow fade right throughout 2015.
Melbourne, however, continues to rise.
In the latest price data from CoreLogic, up to the end of October, the annual price growth gap between Sydney and Melbourne has closed considerably. In the past three months, Melbourne’s home value index has increased 3.1%, easily the biggest among the capital cities, while Sydney’s rose only 1.5%.
In annual terms, Sydney is up 15.6% and Melbourne 12.8%. In a month or two, those positions will be reversed.
The reason Sydney is still above Melbourne at the moment, despite Sydney fading while Melbourne is rising, is that the price data is many months behind the game. 
On ABC TV yesterday business commentator Alan Kohler displayed a graph which suggested a correlation between auction clearance rates and median price movements, but with a time lag of several months in the reaction of prices.
(Kohler, incidentally, made the mistake of placing great emphasis on the monthly movement in the city price indexes – he should know that month-to-month changes in statistics are often meaningless aberrations. Many of the monthly movements are contradicted by the quarterly changes, which are far more significant.)
It’s taken quite a long time for Sydney prices to respond to the slowdown in activity, but history shows this is quite normal. It also shows that median prices are rather a blunt instrument for measuring the state of markets. Sales volumes are far more revealing and can put you ahead of the game in terms of likely price movements.
The latest sales data shows that Melbourne has been rising steadily throughout this calendar year, quite the opposite to Sydney. 
Each quarter has shown an uptick in sales activity, with the greatest momentum occurring away from the millionaire suburbs close to the CBD. This may explain why Melbourne clearance rates are dropping at a time when overall sales activity is rising and the overall city median is rising – the busiest markets are those less likely to use auctions.
There are still plenty of strong middle market areas – notably the municipalities of Whitehorse (Box Hill, Nunuwading, Blackburn), Monash (Oakleigh, Mt Waverley, Clayton) and Knox (Wantirna, Boronia, Bayswater) – but the greatest momentum is now the outer ring precincts. Locations likely to attract first time buyers and others on smaller budgets are really pumping in Melbourne. 
The LGAs of Whittlesea (Epping, Thomastown, Mill Park) and Hume (Sunbury, Roxborough Park, Gladstone Park) in the north of the metropolitan area are among the market leaders on activity.
In the far south-east, the Casey LGA (Cranbourne, Doveton, Endeavour Hills) has numerous strong markets, while Brimbank (Sunshine, Deer Park, Cairnlea) in the western suburbs is being greatly boosted by infrastructure spending and urban renewal projects.
Wyndham City LGA in the south-west has surged. In Point Cook, for example, sales numbers in the past six quarters have been 289, 313, 350, 396, 395 and 420. Other suburbs in this LGA, such as Werribee, Hoppers Crossing and Wyndham Vale, have similar patterns.
When sales volumes surge like that, prices follow – with a time lag.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When sales volumes surge, prices follow: Terry Ryder on Melbourne's outer ring

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On Wednesday night I watched finance commentator Alan Kohler on ABC TV puzzling over the apparent contradiction of sharply-falling loans to investors and rising prices in the major cities.
His basic message was: it doesn’t make sense and it can’t continue. 
His basis problem was: it didn’t occur to him that some of the data he was presenting might be rubbish.
He shares this problem with commentators, economists and journalists right across Australia. No one ever questions the real estate data that’s pumped out by publicity-addicted research companies – not even when it’s patently absurd and clearly wrong.
We had the situation recently where one of big research firms published figures showing that house prices fell in six of the eight capital cities in the March Quarter. That was treated as gospel and interpreted as evidence that the alleged boom was over.
Around the same time another of the big numbers companies published figures claiming that house prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in the March Quarter. That result was reported as truth as well, with no one (apart from me, it seems) noticing that the two sets of figures totally contradicted one another and that two conflicting messages were being sent to the public. 
One source said Adelaide was leading the nation on price growth while another said its prices were falling at the fastest rate since 2012.
So back to Kohler who is very good at making sense of share-market events and economic data, but not so bright when it comes to real estate. He displayed a graph suggesting loans to investors have dived. He attributed this to the crackdown by APRA and the reaction of major lenders.
That was starkly at odds with reports in media only days earlier, claiming that “investors have begun flooding back into the market”. Newspapers reported that investors were 47.6% of all new mortgage commitments in March, the highest proportion since August 2015. This was attributed to “some lenders reversing the tighter lending requirements that were previously in place”. 
So Kohler’s graph told quite the opposite story to the figures published elsewhere. And he made the incorrect assumption – the Labor Party is making the same mistake with its negative gearing policy – that price rises are caused exclusively by investors.
His next problem - his confusion over prices rising so much against a background of apparently plummeting investor lending – was based on his blind acceptance of the May price growth figures from CoreLogic.
Like so many journalists and commentators, he fell into the trap of (a) accepting published figures as unchallengeable and (b) placing big emphasis on month-to-month movements. He’s been around long enough to know better. 
Much of the data purporting to depict monthly changes in prices in our major cities is worthless. Indeed, it’s worst than worthless, because it’s misleading and causes confusion for consumers. 
The CoreLogic figures for May would have us believe that the apartment prices rose 8.4 percent in Hobart. Seriously? Hobart units have added 8.4 percent in value in a single month? I visited Hobart just a week ago and there is nothing happening in that market to justify that figure, nor the one that says Hobart unit prices have risen almost 19 percent in the past 12 months. These figures are made of an artificial elastomer synthesized from petroleum byproducts (they’re rubbery).
The same research source claims that Darwin apartments prices fell 10 percent in the month of May; that Canberra apartment prices fell 6 percent; that Perth prices fell 6.3 percent; and that Sydney house prices rose 3.6 percent. All those dramatic movements in property values in a single month – are they believable? I would suggest not. 
Everyone reporting these numbers has expressed breathless amazement, but it hasn’t occurred to anyone that maybe the figures are a tad sus – or that short-term movements in median prices or value indexes are essentially irrelevant because a month is too short a time frame to deliver a meaningful pattern.
If you examine month-to-month movements in anything – retail spending, building approvals, the jobs market, you name it – you’ll find the numbers are quite erratic. Often they’re just statistical aberrations, but economists will be lining up to attribute great significance to them. 
Only the long-term trend matters and only that should be reported - and then only with care, because you can be sure that the numbers you’re recording today will be contradicted by another set from other source tomorrow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Some data depicting monthly residential price changes is worthless: Terry Ryder

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The top sale of the week was a four bedroom home in the Sydney beachside suburb of Bronte that sold for the first time in 34 years.
CoreLogic RP Data's top ten sales listing for the week ending 27 September noted the home, <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/9-mirimar-avenue-tamarama/Property-Details-sold-residential-9317606" target="_blank">9 Mirimar Avenue, Bronte</a> is on a 474sqm block with 180 degree views and sold for $7,780,000.
Top ten sales
9 Mirimar Avenue, Bronte, NSW, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2 car house $7,780,000 through Laing + Simmons Double Bay 
48a Hampden Road, Armadale, Vic 4 bed, 2 bath, 2 car house $5,300,000 through Jellis Craig Armadale 
41D New South Head Road, Vaucluse, NSW5 bed, 5 bath, 2 car house $5,250,000 through Laing + Simmons Double Bay 
417/6 Cowper Wharf Road, Woolloomooloo, NSW 3 bed, 3 bath, 2 car unit $4,500,001 through BresicWhitney Darlinghurst 
23 Burran Avenue, Mosman, NSW 3bed,2bath,2 car house $4,390,000 through McGrath Estate Agents 
1101/39 Castlebar Street, Kangaroo Point, Qld 4 bed, 4 bath, 6 car unit $4,315,000 through McGrath Estate Agents 
240 Morack Road, Vermont South, Vic 5 bed, 3 bath, 2 car house $4,150,000 through Ray White Blackburn 
71 Barnstaple Road, Russell Lea, NSW 5 bed, 4 bath, 4 car house $3,910,000 through McGrath Estate Agents 
41 Salisbury Road, Rose Bay, NSW 4 bed, 3 bath, 2 car house $3,900,000 through Raine &amp; Horne Double Bay 
96 Livingstone Avenue, Pymble, NSW 5 bed, 5 bath, 2 car house $3,800,000 through LJ Hooker Wahroonga 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Bronte $7.78 million sale tops CoreLogic RP Data top 10 list

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Families from southern capitals are looking to the north for a better lifestyle at an affordable price, as median prices in Sydney are up to 75% higher than in Brisbane, says Place CEO Damian Hackett.
The median house price in Sydney and Brisbane during October 2015 was at the highest level in 13 years, he noted CoreLogic RP Data shows. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/23/image003.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/23/image003.png" alt="">
“The last time we saw these kinds of figures was back in 2002, when the median dwelling prices in Sydney were 97 percent higher than those in Brisbane – slightly above the current figure - which reflects a 75 percent difference," he said.
“If we look back, an increasing median price gap between Brisbane and our southern counterparts is key in shifting momentum."
Sydney and Melbourne buyers are rejecting the southern pricing instability in favour of Brisbane. Investors observe Brisbane’s high yields, while young families seek affordability and a quality lifestyle, he said.
“Brisbane is consistent in terms of sales activity and stability, with low interest rates this year encouraging investment across the board, in addition to upgrades in the upper end of the market.
“Queensland owner-occupiers are quickly snapping up family homes on large blocks in Brisbane’s blue chip suburbs, where they pay a fraction of what they would in Sydney”.
Queensland represents value for money, an attractive option for southern buyers as Sydney and Melbourne continue to experience unsustainable growth, says Hackett.
"What we’re now seeing is Sydney and Melbourne prices are reaching their peak; people are looking for stable and solid growth and that’s what we have in Brisbane. Families are recognising the very high quality of living they can afford in Queensland.”
According to Place, the increasing transport infrastructure across Brisbane will only add to its appeal.
“The first direct flights from Gold Coast to China have commenced, and the G20 showcased Brisbane as a highly attractive city, while the Gold Coast is seeing a boom in i
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

High median price gap between Brisbane and Sydney sees buyers eyeing north: Place CEO Damian Hackett

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Sydney and Melbourne property is the nation's best performing in the current residential cycle, according to QBE’s Australian Housing Outlook 2015-2018, who note the result is driven by investor purchasers, some 50% of the national market.
QBE LMI Chief Executive Officer Phil White said the report forecasts that Brisbane’s continuing affordability will see it attain the highest growth rate of all capital cities over the three-year period.
"And this will result in a median house price of $575,000 in 2018, which will be 12% above the median house price of $511,300 in June this year,” he said.
<a href="/images/2015/10/29/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-29%20at%2011.08.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/29/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-29%20at%2011.08.54%20AM.png" alt="">The report, produced with BIS Shrapnel, said the Perth market will weaken across both houses and units due to a rising stock surplus and the slowing state economy, with an expected 10% decline in the median house price in 2018 compared to the June 2015 level. 
It noted demand in some markets over the year will ease, with the exception of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
<a href="/images/2015/10/29/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-29%20at%2011.09.02%20AM.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/29/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-29%20at%2011.09.02%20AM.png" alt="">
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