Residential Market

<p>Queensland has recorded its highest quarterly property sales settlement number since 2007.</p>

<p>Some 51,771 Queensland property sales were settled during the first quarter of 2021, according to the latest analysis by PEXA, Australia&rsquo;s leading digital settlement platform.</p>

<p>Queensland&rsquo;s 40% jump year-on-year illustrates the current confidence in the north-eastern Australian property market.</p>

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<p>Western Australia saw 57% growth year-on-year in recording its highest property sales settlement number since at least 2015.</p>

<p>Throughout January and February, WA has seen more than 15,000 property sale settlements, which was 5,000 more than the corresponding period in 2020, prior to the impact of COVID-19.</p>

<p>Mike Gill, the senior research Manager, PEXA, said the Australian property market continues to perform strongly.</p>

<p>And he sees no strong reason for this trend to change in the immediate future.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We have seen a really strong start to the year Australia wide, with the nation recording 30% year-on-year growth in property sales settlements when compared to the beginning of 2020.</p>

<p>&quot;We have also witnessed considerable momentum build in Victoria, with the state living up to its property powerhouse reputation recording the most sales settlements (more than 55,000) of any state during this period.&quot;</p>

<p>New South Wales posted 26% growth year-on-year, and South Australia experiencing a jump of 28% year-on-year for the quarter, said Gill.</p>

<p>Australia&rsquo;s property sector witnessed almost 200,000 properties settled during the first quarter of 2021, PEXA calculated.</p>


PEXA, Australia’s leading digital property settlement platform, calculated in the past quarter Queensland recorded 51,771, its highest sales number since 2007.



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Queensland's first quarter residential sales jump 40% year on year: PEXA

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<p>The NRL and AFL grand finals, combined with a long weekend across many states last week saw auction activity take a backseat, however, this week auction volumes have more than tripled, with 3,062 residential properties going to auction across the combined capitals.</p>
<p>This week will be the third busiest for auctions across <strong>Melbourne</strong> this year, with 1,411 homes being taken to auction, compared to just 98 last week and 1,123 at the same time last year. Similarly, for <strong>Sydney</strong>, Australia’s second largest auction market, volumes will increase this week, with 1,230 auctions scheduled, up from 583 last week and 918 over the comparable week last year.</p>
<p>In all other capital cities, the number of auctions this week will also increase and volumes in each of the cities are higher relative to last year. There are 129 auctions in <strong>Adelaide</strong> this week, compared to 33 last week and 115 at the same time last year. <strong>Brisbane</strong> will be host to 186, the busiest week for the city since May this year, while there are 65 <strong>Canberra</strong> auctions scheduled and 34 across <strong>Perth</strong>.</p>
<p>In terms of the latest clearance rates, clearance rates fell further last week, down to 68.2 per cent across the combined capital cities, with Sydney recording a clearance rate below 70 per cent for the first time this year (69.9 per cent). With the increase in auction volumes this week it will be interesting to see how the clearance rate performs.</p>
<p>Mount Waverly in Victoria is host to 31 auctions this week, the highest number of auctions in any one Australian suburb. Following this is Reservoir (Vic) with 25, Glen Waverley (Vic) with 21, Mosman (NSW) and Northcote (Vic), both with 18.</p>
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Buzz across the capital city auction markets: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<div>An unusual looking Building Approvals data release from the ABS, which showed a seasonally adjusted 2.1% increase in monthly approvals to 18,900 (21.4% year-on-year) but the trend result declining by 1.8% for the month to 18,309 (to be up by just 6.8% year-on-year).</div>
<div>
<br>The trend result led to various reports of the building boom being over. Confusing? It certainly was, with the trend result evidently applying negative "tail weights" to the strong run of monthly approvals at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately monthly building approvals figures will always and forever be lumpy, and the trend weights arguably add limited value here.<br><br>Below I have instead charted the original unadjusted data by month for houses and other dwellings - no seasonal adjustments and no trend weights, just a moving average whacked through the middle - so you can make your own mind up.<br><br>So, have building approvals peaked or not? In short, detached house approvals have probably peaked for the cycle. On the other hand townhouses, units and apartments may not <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>quite</strong></span> yet have peaked, but given tighter lending criteria being applied for investors and waning rental yields, the peak of the cycle appears likely to be imminent.</div>
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<span>The rolling annual data shows that over the year to September a record total of 230,296 dwellings was approved, with some 114,218 of them being attached dwellings, which is also a record.</span><br><br><span>Incredibly, the annual total number of attached dwelling approvals is approaching the number of houses approved, something that nobody was predicting three years ago.</span>
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<div class="separator"><span>Indeed some folk predicted there would be no material increase in approvals period, which just goes to show how unpredictable cycles can be at times.</span></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Across the capitals</span></strong><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">House approvals continue to trend up steadily in Sydney and Melbourne, but are flatlining in Brisbane, and are now trending down in Perth, Adelaide and Canberra. </div>
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<div>Over the past 12 months Sydney has seen four big months for attached dwellings approvals ranging from 3,111 in May to a record 4,260 in July, but approvals tailed away again in September to just 1,835.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Melbourne waved through another 2,842 units in September for a fresh rolling annual high of 34,726 approvals.<br><br>Meanwhile Brisbane had another whopping month of high rise approvals, also sending its annual unit approvals to a new high of 18,301. This figure is up from an equivalent total of just 5,412 three years ago - again, think back to the commentary at the time, did anyone predict this surge in approvals or Chinese capital?<br><br>The Brisbane Central Business District is set to "benefit" from new high rise towers which will nudge against the city's 274 metre height limit, a restriction set for aviation regulations.</div>
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<div>What more is there to say on this point that I haven't already said over the past two years?<br><br>Whether or not all of these apartments are built, steer clear of the obvious areas of oversupply in Melbourne and Brisbane in particular, and be even more wary than usual about buying expensive off-the-plan or new build units. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">High rise gluts power on</span></strong><br><br><div>In particular, the number of high rise (4+ storey) units being approved continues to defy common sense in Victoria...</div>
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<div><span>...and in Queensland, which saw its greatest ever month for high rise apartment approvals in September. The ratio of new stock to existing stock in a number of Brisbane's inner suburbs is exceptionally high, as documented here previously.</span></div>
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<div><span>Meanwhile, New South Wales may have passed its cyclical peak in respect of high rise approvals, although due to necessity crowded Sydney will continue to approve more of this dwelling type in future. Nevertheless the higher-density sector is one I'd mark down to "underperform".</span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Overall, despite talk of the building boom being "at an end" thanks to the prplexing ABS trend data, this was a reasonably strong headline result for building approvals, though once again skewed towards high-density projects. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">With the macroprudential screw tightening it seems increasingly likely that unit approvals could soon drop off too, and a significant percentage of approved developments may never make it through to the completion stage.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Accordingly the dwelling starts data series will be one to watch closely. Note that there can be a significant lag between approval and completion for multi-unit developments, perhaps up to several years. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Building boom all over bar the grouting? Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Property has always been a hot investment for Australians, even when staying abroad.</span></p>
<p>Australia’s population is growing around 2% a year, driven by immigration. But 65% of the population live in one of the eight state or territory capital cities, meaning supply is almost always struggling to catch up with demand, according to Richard Wakelin from Wakelin Property Advisory.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Hence, investing in property is an attractive option.</span></p>
<p><span>But for those overseas trying to channel their hard-earned money here for investment and handy returns, be wary of property spruikers.</span></p>
<p><span>Regulators have voiced concerns about the price rises in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, amid reports of property spruikers "trapping" ill-advised investors in self-managed super fund (SMSF) structures.</span></p>
<p><span>In December 2014, the Financial System Inquiry chaired by David Murray suggested banning SMSFs borrowing to buy property, by removing the current exemption for limited recourse borrowing arrangements (LRBAs).</span></p>
<p><span>"We regard [recommendations to buy property through SMSFs] as investment advice and you need to be licensed and if you are not licensed we will come after you," ASIC commissioner Greg Tanzer told Property Observer earlier this year. </span></p>
<p><span>Be cautious while buying off-the-plan property. You might save on stamp duty, but this is usually offset by the GST you indirectly pay, as a developer pays 10% GST on the building costs component which will be passed on to the buyer in the purchase price.</span></p>
<p><span>Also, as you will invariably pay a premium for the new house, you could end up losing up to 20% value if you skipped proper research.</span></p>
<p><span>High-rises can sometimes prove to be a trap as there is a supply glut in some suburbs. Which means finding tenants is hard, besides the level of rent and the yield.</span></p>
<p><span>Buildings with lifts, communal gymnasiums and pools usually come at the cost of higher fees.</span></p>
<p><span>Also, avoid properties that banks may be reluctant to lend for. These could include serviced apartments, student accommodation and those in a mixed zoning. </span></p>
<p><span>If it's not good enough for the bank, meaning 'risky', it's likely not good enough for you, says Wakelin.</span></p>
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Expats, avoid these common pitfalls before investing in property

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<p>Last week one of my project managers used an interesting story to illustrate a point about being patient when developing property.   <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Rich is a country lad brought up on a farm in rural NZ… no it wasn’t a sheep station. Lucky for me, he decided to ‘cross the ditch’ and settle in Australia to make his fortune in developing property in the Hunter Region of NSW. He was working with one of my builders when I discovered his expertise. It was some time later that we ended up working together. </p>
<p>The message from Rich’s story was simple – “Pushing too hard at the wrong time can cause problems rather than solutions.”  <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The message came about whilst discussing how we could fast track lodgement of a particular Development Application.  As project managers I knew we were doing all we could.  I also knew that the other people involved; our builder and engineering consultants, were too.  We wanted to illustrate this to our client.  And then Rich sat down with a steaming cuppa in his hand and spun me a yarn.</p>
<p>I thought I’d share his tale because it made sense, even to a city gal like me.  Hope you enjoy it as much as I did...</p>
<p>Rich:  On the farm we never had a dog to move the cows into the milking shed. But our neighbours did and they were always in a hurry to get the milking done for the day. One day I asked Dad; “Why don’t we have a dog to chase the cows like our neighbours?” </p>
<p>He responded by saying, “Son, when a dog chases cows, by the time they arrive at the milking shed, they’re all nervous and tense because that dog has been snapping at their heels, barking and generally causing them grief. Because of this, those cows never milk for long and as a consequence, they don’t produce much milk.”</p>
<p>Rich explained that what those stressed out cows did was to produce a lot of crap. The cow manure mounted up quickly and ended up covering the shed while they stood waiting to be milked. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>The neighbours with dogs always finished milking earlier than us, but spent more time cleaning up their milking shed at the end.  They produced very little milk. </p>
<p>When it was all washed up and done, we always finished around the same time as the neighbours. Although our cows milked longer, we had less to clean up and we always produced a lot more milk. </p>
<p>Relating this back to our property development situation, the bottom line was if we did things properly and not rush the procurement and planning stages of the process, the delivery and close out will move along smoothly and end up producing a better, more profitable ‘on time’ result. </p>
<p>My take out of Rich’s yarn: There are times for snappy dogs, but use them sparingly and intelligently. </p>
<p>Property Bloom understands the need for speed, as do our builders.  At the end of the day we all want to complete the project quickly.  But what we really want to ensure is a development that is well planned, delivered efficiently and on budget - and hopefully with very little crap to clean up at the end!</p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Milking the property development process: Jo Chivers

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Property Bloom has been developing property in New South Wales Hunter Region for almost fifteen years now and it still amazes me the sheer potential this region has to offer. </span></p>
<p>As we near our one hundredth property development, I took some time to reflect on this magnificent region after some light bedtime reading I came across this week. I've shared some of these research links with you.</p>
<p>The Hunter Region has everything going for it; beautiful environment, awesome beaches, fabulous mountain ranges and bush settings, wineries, diverse economy, dynamic industry, vibrant restaurant scene, affordable housing and amazing people and community. It continues to reinvent itself and there is now great focus on making it an information technology and professional services centre. </p>
<p>Did you know that the Hunter is the first Australian region to measure it's innovation performance on a world scale?  </p>
<p>Measurements included:</p>
<p>Introducing new or significantly improved methods and processes <br> Introducing marketing or organisational innovations<br> Innovative businesses collaborating with others <br> Businesses innovating in-house</p>
<p>You can check it out <a href="https://rdahunter.org.au/initiatives/2014-hunter-innovation-scorecard" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p>This week the NSW Government released its new twenty year Draft Plan for Growing  the Hunter City and it confirms all that I hoped for and more.  Hunter City is defined as ..." the metropolitan area extending from Toronto and Swansea in the south to Raymond Terrace in the north and from Newcastle Harbour in the east to Lochinvar in the west. It has emerged from the expansion of Newcastle and its surrounding towns and has a rich history and strong growth prospects for the future." </p>
<p>It has identified Newcastle or the Hunter City as they've coined the area, as Australia's next major city. Of course Newcastle is already a Australia's seventh largest city by population according to population experts </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">When you are researching an area in which to invest in, then reading these types of government plans is key to getting a real feel for what is planned for the area. </span></p>
<p>The draft plans released identify visions, goals and actions that will guide the strategic planning of the region over the next twenty  years.  They aim to:</p>
<ul>
<li>protect the region’s most important asset, the environment</li>
<li>grow and diversify the economy to create local jobs</li>
<li>create thriving, liveable centres</li>
<li>deliver greater housing choice</li>
<li>in collaboration with councils, establish a committee to drive the coordination and delivery of the actions in the Plan. </li>
</ul>
<p>The public have been invited to have a say in this direction and you can do that here: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/hunter</p>
<p> Maybe Property Bloom will be celebrating our century of property development sooner than expected, based on what I read about the plans for Australia's next major city; Hunter City. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em> </span></p>
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Where is Australia's next major city? Jo Chivers

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<p>If there's one thing I've learnt from developing property, it's that you definitely need a 'can do' attitude.</p>
<p>This week, I've come across so many 'can do' people that it's inspired me to write about them.</p>
<p>So what's the definition of 'can do'?  It's basically, when everything goes to shit and things seem totally not doable, then a person with a 'can do' attitude always finds a way.  So today, this goes out to the many people who've I've crossed paths with and who've reminded me of how we really can achieve anything we put our minds and hearts to.</p>
<p>Meet Bob from Port Macquarie, he's an older gentleman who has been emailing me for the past five years on and off. Every now and then I'll get a message from Bob. He may be responding to one of my Property Observer stories or our newsletters, but he always asks different questions. Well, this week Bob decided to take a big step and to be the property developer he'd wanted to for some time. His purpose?  Well, it is to use the equity he creates to help his daughter buy her first property.</p>
<p>Then there's my step daughter who rang me today to tell me that whilst planning her thirtieth birthday party she'd also set herself the goal to buy her fourth investment property by the time she turns thirty. Her birthday is in May 2016 and my heart sang as she described the type of property she's looking for.  Go girl, you have the 'can do' attitude.</p>
<p>This goes out to a dynamic young couple who called my just a week ago and who were so focussed they made calculated decisions to be able to secure their development site within a week and are now Property Bloom clients. They explained they have their sites set on building their wealth quickly and they've asked me to find their next site soon. Did I mention they also have seven dual occupancy projects underway in Queensland?</p>
<p>This goes out to my little brother who celebrated twenty-five years in the NSW Police Force this week and whom I proudly watched being awarded special things from Commissioner Scipione. His focus and hard work has seen him rise through the ranks, raise a family and build their dream home.</p>
<p>This goes out to the client who was recently turned away from the four big banks, despite being on a $300,000 plus salary because of the ridiculous changes in their serviceability calculators. I referred him to Rams who more than welcomed his business and gladly offered him the finance he wanted for his development project with Property Bloom.</p>
<p>This goes out to my project manager who after approaching many lenders has used creative strategies to source finance for her first development project.  She has drive and determination which comes from her desire to become financially independent.</p>
<p>This goes out to my builder and the amazing staff who always use the 'can do' attitude which means we'll be completing many of our development projects before Santa arrives this year.</p>
<p>Finally, this goes out to all of you reading this who refuse to let life's ups and downs stop you from driving forward with your goals and dreams. You all have the 'can do' spirit. As the famous Walt Disney said "If you can dream it, you can do it." </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.</em></p>
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Keeping a can-do attitude in the property game: Jo Chivers

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<p>I’m not sure just how closely you have been following Australia’s property markets but what I can add is we are now starting to see some amazing trends emerging that will have both negative and positive outcomes.</p>
<p>This week we read that despite our national apartment building boom rents continue to rise. With approximately 30,000 apartments nearing completion in Sydney I predict that we have seen the rental peak. Unbeknown to many the major banks have already started black spotting many areas across Australia – where they are now no – go areas for future lending. For example, where you have an area that has undergone unprecedented new apartment high density developments you can expect values to start decreasing quite rapidly.</p>
<p>In Sydney the areas on ignore include, Darling Harbour, Dawes Point, Haymarket, Millers Point, Sydney, Sydney South, Waterloo, Annandale, Zetland, Homebush and Arncliffe. It will only be a matter of time before these areas spread further given the sudden – impact of oversupply where the vast majority of these properties will be left fighting it out in this newly created competitive rental market. It is quite unprecedented to see the lenders adopting this strategy given they are creating their own problems although they did approve the respective loans.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Gen Y (or Gen Why? as I call them) should stop complaining and consider themselves lucky that they missed most of this modern day apartment investment boom. Since December 2008, when the Rudd government moved the off – the – plan apartment overseas buying ratio from 50 per cent to 100 per cent where the large percentage of these buyers came from Asia, which has a combined population of approximately 4 billion people compared to our 24 million. Whilst I certainly don’t agree with this decision we have introduced foreign owners although the debt remains local – another big problem.</p>
<p>Then of course it would be remiss of me not to mention that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has gladly accepted the role of “Big Brother” where every single property transaction in Australia dating back to 1985 now being scrutinised. Whilst the ATO has been remarkably quiet on the announcement side of developments this is an election year and the decision to hand the ATO total ownership of Australian property data was a decision by the present government, so we can expect this to figure prominently in the forthcoming election debate.</p>
<p>Now if developments were not getting interesting we now have the Panama Papers (the largest leak in journalistic history) which the ATO would be all over given 800 Australians managed to make guest appearances as a direct result from the leaked papers.</p>
<p>Just what the exposure to Australian property markets is remains to be seen although I did read in <em>The Guardian</em> this week – “Which is exactly why today’s revelations about the connections between tax havens and property ownership are so important. Revealed in the leaked documents was the fact that 2,800 Mossack Fonseca companies are connected to more than 6,000 UK title deeds, worth at least £7bn. On top of this, according to Guardian analysis, more than 90,000 properties in England and Wales are listed in the Land Registry to overseas owners, at least 75,000 of which are owned by companies or individuals registered in tax havens.”</p>
<p>Now can you start to see why raising the overseas buyers’ ratio from 50 per cent to 100 per cent could have a serious impact on our Australian property markets? Given all that is presently going on it would be sage advice to closely monitor exactly what is going on in these areas of high density development.</p>
<p>To be fair many areas saw very little development so they will go through this with minimum downside to property prices and rental returns. Having said that the property aggregators bundle all the statistics into the one bundle so rents will then show signs of easing although in some areas it will be quite the opposite.</p>
<p>I have no doubt that the role the ATO is currently playing within the tapestry of the Australian property markets will have a defining outcome that will result in many forced sales. Just what effect this will have on property prices is way too early to call although I see the investment market under significant pressure with all presently going on. Then again there will be a knock – on effect with all the new developments which are presently in the re – zoning and planning stages more particularly, those areas that already that are already marked as being over developed – over supply.</p>
<p>On the other hand the owner operated housing market has just been ambling along and looks to have well and truly dodged this modern day investor bullet. If there were to be an investor market collapse the owner occupiers would then be placed again with the opportunity of a lifetime with record low cash rates coupled with an investor market collapse. Yes, we have seen such markets before although never on this grand scale.</p>
<p>In my opinion, these are the markets you should be closely following on high visual alert.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 56</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 45</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 43</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 53</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 46</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 48</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 0</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 14</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 0</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>•Number of houses on the market this week – 11</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26</p>
<p>*Number of apartments on the market this week – 24</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Why property markets keep confusing us: Robert Simeon

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<div>It's almost becoming an annual tradition that the Treasury scrambles until 4.59pm on a Friday before pinging out the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report and nipping off for a few cold ones.</div>
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<div>And this year the finance team surely did not disappoint scrimmaging until mere moments before "schooner o'clock" on Friday before delivering the goods!</div>
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<div>Broadly as expected total foreign investment in Australia was very strong in FY2015, increasing by +16.3 percent to $194.6 billion, with real estate (both commercial and residential) the largest sector at $97 billion.</div>
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<div>The total number of real estate approvals increased from 23,428 to 37,347 in FY2015, mainly for new dwellings.</div>
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<div>Real estate approvals have more than tripled in only two years. Bazinga. </div>
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<div>Proposed investment in real estate soared to $96.9 billion, incorporating $36.2 billion of commercial real estate proposals.</div>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Foreign investment in residential real estate</span></strong></p>
<div>Proposed foreign investment in residential real estate ripped from $34.7 billion in FY2014 to $60.8 billion in FY2015, a level that could even not have been imagined only two years earlier.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span>
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<div>No proposals were rejected in FY2015 following three rejections in the preceding year, although 40 percent of approvals were granted with conditions attached, such as time periods for development or the requirement for temporary residents to sell should they depart Australia (approvals are filtered by specific questions, and therefore are to a large degree self-selecting).</div>
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<div>One divestment order was made in May 2015 by the FIRB, with an established $39 million residential Sydney property having been purchased illegally by a foreign company.</div>
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<div>Thereafter in May last year responsibility for divestment orders was assumed by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), and a further 26 divestment orders were actioned.</div>
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<div>There was a massive 60 percent increase in the number of residential real estate approvals, with about 80 percent of those approvals for purchases of under $1 million in value (i.e. apartments).</div>
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<div>The bulk of this monster increase in foreign investment related to new real estate, including developer off the plan purchases, meaning that in aggregate foreign investors accounted for nearly 60 percent of all new residential construction.</div>
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<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">China's rise</span></strong></span></div>
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<div><span>The value of total FIRB approvals for China has increased by around 68 per cent since the prior year and accounted for around 33 per cent of the total value of approvals by foreign country in FY2015.</span></div>
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<div><span>Approvals for all Chinese investment in real estate, incorporating residential and commercial investment, all but doubled to $24.3 billion.</span></div>
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<div>Finally, Melbourne retained its crown as the king of foreign investment in terms of residential real estate, reflecting the huge volumes of residential construction in that city, with Sydney comfortably  bopped into second place.</div>
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<div>There was also enormous foreign investment in vacant land in Victoria at $3.4 billion, far exceeding the $1 billion seen in New South Wales, for example.</div>
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<div>The above having been said, Queensland saw far larger increases in foreign residential real estate investment in percentage terms.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>Foreign investment in Australian residential real estate is something of a double-edged sword.</div>
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<div>It is abundantly clear that foreign investors became more active in the purchase of new dwellings in FY2015, and monumentally so, with most of that foreign interest coming from China.</div>
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<div>Foreign investment has thus been a crucial factor in the strength of this residential construction boom, accounting for more than half of the investment in new dwellings, helping in turn to keep rental growth subdued.  </div>
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<div>On the flip side, foreign developers in Sydney have shown a willingness on occasion to pay prices for development opportunities far in excess of what locals are generally prepared to pay, putting significant upwards pressure on land values.</div>
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<div>Whether this can level of investment in new dwellings can be sustained is less clear as the residential construction cycle passes its peak imminently.</div>
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<div>Clearly there is vast foreign interest in Australian property from China, and it seems reasonable to me to suggest that any holes in the FIRB Annual Report are likely to be errors of omission rather than errors of commission.</div>
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<div>As such, the above information acts as a useful indicator, but it may not be complete.</div>
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<div>With immigration now rising again, the share of overseas born Aussies at a 120 year high, and as the number of international students in Australia skyrockets, the potential pathways for foreign capital to ultimately find its way into established residential property markets are multiplying, particularly in the largest capital cities.<br><br>A final thought or question for you - what percentage share of these new apartments bought by investors from the Chinese mainland ever make it to the local rental market?</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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FIRB real estate approvals triple in two years: Pete Wargent

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<p class="Body">Most property investors are out there chasing the big growth. Many of them end up disappointed citizens, especially those who chase it in the wrong places, like resources-influenced regional centres.</p>
<p class="Body">Very few places sustain that big growth for more than short periods.</p>
<p class="Body"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There’s a lot to be said for a less popular but much safer and often more profitable policy: chasing consistency.</span></p>
<p class="Body">In our quarterly survey of sales activity around Australia, a report we call <em>The Price Predictor Index</em>, we have a prominent spot for the consistent markets. I tend to think of them as The Stayers of residential real estate.</p>
<p>They sit in the middle of the market, between the growth locations and the declining ones. These <em>Consistency</em> markets record steady rates of sale, quarter after quarter, year after year.</p>
<p>These locations, above all else, represent safety for investors. They are usually not boom markets, but have the valuable quality of solidity and consistency. And markets with this high level of even performance usually produce solid price growth over time.</p>
<p>Bowral in the Southern Highlands of NSW is one of those wonderfully consistent markets. It tends to sell between 100 and 110 homes every quarter, regardless of what’s happening in the wider market or the general economy.</p>
<p>In the past 12 months its median house price has risen 14% to $710,000 – and over the longer-term it has averaged 7% per year for the past decade.</p>
<p>The Sydney suburb of Sutherland has a modest median price, by Sydney standards, of $780,000 but it is good performer on price growth, on the back on a steady sales performance.</p>
<p>Over the past three years it has recorded between 78 and 88 sales virtually every quarter. No dramatic peaks and troughs, just good steady performance. Its median has grown 13% in the past year and it has averaged 9% per year over the past decade, which means values doubling in eight years.</p>
<p>The Brisbane suburb of Bulimba is another of those stayers – selling a similar number of properties quarter after quarter, year after year. Its median price has grown an average of 7% per year over 10 years, including 9% in the past 12 months, and its median is now above a million dollars.</p>
<p>These case studies – and there are many more like them - show that <em>Consistency</em> markets can produce good price growth and, in particular, steady long-term capital growth rates.</p>
<p>And they can be found anywhere, including in city markets that are generally in decline.</p>
<p>Perth is towards the bottom of the pile in terms of capital city markets. In the new Autumn edition of <em>The Price Predictor Index, </em>we can now identify only four suburbs with any kind of forward momentum in the entire Perth metropolitan area. But one Perth suburb has grabbed our nomination as the most consistent market in the nation.</p>
<p>Middle-market Willeton has sold between 80 and 87 homes per quarter in 10 of the past 11 quarters (with one quarter recording 100 sales). In the past six quarters, sales have been 83, 84, 83, 86, 87 and 81. Willeton is in the Canning LGA in the southern suburbs of Perth and currently has a median house price of $755,000.</p>
<p>While Perth prices generally are going backwards, three years after that market peaked, Willeton’s median price grew 3.4% in the past 12 months and has grown an average 7% per year over the past three years. Its long-term performance is 8.5% per year, which means values doubling in 8-9 years.</p>
<p>It’s a good example of how The Stayers perform, even when surrounded by a broader market in decline.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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