Residential Construction

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<p><span>OK so the </span>ABS Building Activity<span> data series doesn't quite run back to 1788, but take a Captain Cook at this:</span></p>
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<div>Dwelling completions have surged to their highest ever level with more than 186,000 homes completed over the past year.<br><br>Furthermore there are presently some 184,000 dwellings under construction, which is the highest number in Australia's history.</div>
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<div>Many pundits scoffed at the Reserve Bank's plan to stimulate construction, but prices are rising and supply has responded with a vengeance, despite inflation in the cost of trades and materials. </div>
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<div>As the largest cities have become denser over time, this construction cycle has largely been a story of units, townhouses and apartments - the "attached dwellings" sector. </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Building work done</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>It should be acknowledged that in spite of all the numbers that are being thrown around in relation to record home starts, record completions and record dwellings under construction, the residential construction boom has likely now nudged against its peak. </div>
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<div>Despite being higher over the year the value of new residential building work done slipped -3.4 per cent lower in the June quarter to $12.8 billion, although the resi sector was held up to some extent by a long overdue +4.0 per cent surge in major renovations work. </div>
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<div>There has not been much to shout about from the non-residential sector since the financial crisis stimulus. </div>
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<div><span>At the state level the economies of the most populous states have benefited from a building boom, but the value of building work done appears to have peaked, albeit remaining at a historically high level. </span></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling completions by state</span></strong><br><br><div>Where are new houses coming online? Mainly in Victoria with more than 31,000 houses completed over the past year.</div>
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<div><span>As for units and apartments there has been a strong completion rate across most of the larger states, with Victoria again leading the way in completing nearly 25,000 units over the past year. </span></div>
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<div>Although it will be the topic of a separate blog post, these figures show why the "Sydney oversupply" meme has been wide of the mark. </div>
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<div>The above charts represent state level figures, and it is clear that the supply of new units and apartments has ramped up impressively over the past four years.<br><br>But despite the improvement, total dwelling completions in New South Wales of 144,000 dwellings is barely keeping pace with a population which has surged by close to 400,000 over that time, while this follows on from a weak half decade of completions in the harbour city which ran from 2005.</div>
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<div>After accounting for stock obsolescence and demolitions, the thousands of apartments which are left vacant, and the fact that close to half of new dwellings in NSW over that time have been units (which typically house only provide accommodation for a couple)...well, there's not much overbuilding in aggregate to be found in those numbers, even if the rentals market is now fully supplied.<br><br>It is much more difficult for a growing city with a population the size of Greater Sydney (approaching 5 million) to overbuild housing than it is for a city the size of, say, Belfast, although Melbourne is certainly giving its best shot.<br><br>For all that, there are of course plenty of sub-regions around Australia with localised oversupply, and particularly so the case of higher-density dwellings. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Commencements peak at record high</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
<div>Total commencements have increased by +14 per cent over the past year to a new high of nearly 210,000.</div>
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<div>It was another strong quarter in June, but the 53,314 commencements result was below that of two of the preceding three quarters, and it is forecast that commencements will now decline through 2015/16.</div>
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<p><span>Finally, there are 184,000 dwellings under construction at the present time, which is the highest figure in Australia's history. </span></p>
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<p><span>This should keep the residential construction sector operating at or close to its full capacity for some time to come.</span></p>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Strongest homebuilding since 1788: Pete Wargent

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<div>It's mainly a been a week of furious tax debate. Admittedly it's been quite a few years since I was employed in a tax position of any note, and even longer since I sat my tax exams.</div>
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<div>No matter, for almost everyone in Australia is a tax expert, and nearly all of us are in agreement that someone needs to pay more tax...just as long as it isn't us!</div>
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<br>Higher stamp duty levies, land tax, income tax, capital gains tax, imputed rental charges, corporation taxes, and superannuation taxes are just a handful of the tolls and contributions being demanded by the baying mob. We are suddently all sure loving the idea of higher taxes!<br><br>A couple of things I can recall from studying tax, particularly with regards to the interdependent sectors of the housing market, are that firstly it's far easier to tweak tax rates and sections of the tax legislation than it is to rip them up entirely, and secondly most modelling and scenario analysis falls over miserably because it fails to account accurately for behavioural change triggered by new tax legislation. </div>
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<div>To be frank, I'll believe any fundamental changes when I see them. Deductibility of mortgage interest for investors has effectively been a bi-partisan policy for decades, and it's only now in Opposition that the ALP is proposing a second stab at grandfathering negative gearing rules. My guess is that the most likely change to housing market taxes would be caps on deductibility, but that really is just a guess.</div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record residential construction boom</span></strong>
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<div>Perhaps the most curious part of the entire issue is the timing. A surge of investor lending has seen rental growth careering to 20 year lows, and with the supply response now in full swing a record nadir is almost certainly in the post. In fact, we're already there according to CoreLogic-RP Data's data series.<br><br>It's a well worn argument that investors don't add to the dwelling stock, but if you've ever worked in the development space you'll know that developers don't <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">give a</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">care a toss</span> give a fig whether a property is bought by a homeowner or an investor, negatively geared or otherwise.<br><br>What creates new supply is declining financing costs, rising demand in aggregate, and thus rising prices, and as this cycle has progressed we have been getting all of these in spades, particularly resulting in a surge of new units, townhouses &amp; apartments, which in turn has already cooled these parts of the housing market naturally.<br><br>The strongest prices gains have been seen in Sydney and Melbourne and these cities have played host to the bulk of the supply response, though a combination of rising prices, low interest rates and, let's be blunt about this, a fresh market of Chinese mainland buyers of new apartments, has seen construction activity increase sharply in Brisbane and elsewhere too.<br><br>Only a couple of years after the system was apparently busted (which would allegedly march us into a recession) residential construction activity hit its highest ever level. So much for negative gearing restricting the dwelling stock - it's the greatest residential construction boom on record!</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rents?</span></strong><br><br><span>As for whether falling demand from investors would lead to rents rising, logically the answer is obviously "yes" as rental supply diminishes, for not all renters want to buy, and many could not afford to do so without borrowing the full purchase price and associated closing costs, a dynamic regulators have been nervously edging away from ever since the financial crisis.</span><br><br><span>Unfortunately I don't have much hard Australian-based evidence upon which to base this assertion, since there have only been two instances where rents have spiked in Australia over the 33 years of available data, but one might reasonably expect that these coincided with downturns in investor activity.</span>
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<div>Incidentally, another quirky facet to the negative gearing debate has been the so-termed "Fact Check" articles which instruct us that rental growth indices "must" be adjusted for inflation i.e. the price of consumer goods (such as the price of cheese, pork, sewerage costs, goat, and so on). "Must" they, fact checkers? According to whom are these "facts" actually facts?<br><br>While there may conceptually be a very loose relationship between inflation and rental price growth, at best it is a link bound by a mile-long rubber band. I've never once come across a landlord adjusting rents for the growth in price of a tub of ice cream, or a dozen eggs, or a packet of smokes, the price of having a root canal, or whatever. It's an absurd notion, really.<br><br>Typically rental price growth is simply one function of the wider property market cycle, specifically supply (the number and type of rentals available for lease) and demand (the volume of renters in the market, and the product collectively in demand from them), although household income growth does indirectly play its part.</div>
<br><div>We can see in the chart below that investor lending more than halved from $0.210 billion in May 1985 to $0.099 billion by early 1986, so evidently the amendments to the tax legislation at that time did change investor behaviour, while dwelling starts also immediately collapsed as charted here previously.</div>
<br><div>Unfortunately the ABS data on investor loans is sawn off at January 1985, so it's not possible for me to put the drop into a wider context, although if you believe what property-loving folk wrote nearer to that time, investor sentiment fell dramatically, which contributed to rent increases in Sydney and Perth in the short space of time that interest deductibility was quarantined.</div>
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<span>The inverse link between investor activity and rental price growth in these two charts above could not be any clearer.</span><br><br><span>Moreover, the property markets of today aren't readily comparable unless population growth is dialled back, since in the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne absolute population growth is much higher. Victoria's population grew by 42,781 in 1985, for example, but has been tracking at around 2.5 times that level recently.</span><br><br><span>Mostly old ground. But what about more recently when annualised rental growth soared to 8.4 per cent in December 2008? Was there also a dip in investment lending then which led to the rental supply shortage and some wrecthed rent increases in parts of Sydney and elsewhere?</span><br><br><span>Again, clearly yes, the figures show that investor lending all but halved from $10.1 billion in June 2007 to just $5.1 billion by January 2009, coinciding exactly with the spike in rents as investors deserted the market, spooked by the onset of the global financial crisis and various predictions of a crash by market commentators.</span><br><br><span>As you can see in the chart below, investor lending rebounded strongly from the month of February 2009, which was the month within which Kevin Rudd announced his famous $42 billion stimulus package, and rental growth quickly cooled again.</span>
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<div>Overall the figures suggest that sharp rental price increases do follow declines in investor activity, pretty much exactly as you would expect.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Recent pullback</span></strong><br><br>At the end of the above chart, we can see that monthly investor lending has recently fallen from a peak of $15.5 billion in June 2015 to $12.6 billion by December. Despite this pullback, which was driven by APRA's interventionary measures, I actually don't see strong rental growth returning any time soon for a few reasons. </div>
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<div>Firstly because the rate of dwelling construction and work in the pipeline remains at very high levels. Secondly because such a high proportion of new dwellings is presently being bought by foreign buyers (and thus are not captured by this data). And thirdly because I also have a sneaking suspicion that a fair percentage of deemed "owner-occupiers" are magically switching to become investors post-purchase.<br><br>There may also be some small impacts from subtle shifts in rental practices such as the growth of Air B&amp;B, although these will surely be less influential than the key trends.</div>
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<div>Overall, despite media articles assuring us over and over again that hosing down investor activity would not lead to increasing rents, market experience tells me that in the largest capital cities this is precisely what would play out. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Changes to tax?</span></strong></div>
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<div>Penultimately, few figures have been tortured more enthusiastically of late than those showing who claims negative gearing benefits or deductions for net rent. Of course, the highest deductions in dollar value terms are claimed by high income earners, since this cohort pays the highest rate of tax - and thus the most tax - and also tends to buy more expensive rental properties, which naturally have a weaker rental return. </div>
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<div>The data presented objectively by Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic-RP Data below show that negative gearing is used right across the spectrum of taxpayers by income bracket, although it <strong><em>is </em></strong>true that you are more likely to claim net rent deductions if you have taxable income of $80,000 or above (25.8 per cent of taxpayers in this cohort) than if you earn $80,000 or below (13 per cent).</div>
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<div>This rings true. From my own experience, none of my friends owned a rental property when we worked in part time jobs at university or in the years immediately after high school, but a fair few did so over time as they grew older, got full time and better paying jobs, met life partners who were incumbent property owners, and so on.</div>
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<div>The figures show that the overwhelming majority of taxpayers with rental properties never own more than one property, and most of the remainder own only two (this can easily happen by default as a couple leave their respective starter home apartments in order to cohabit), while my experience in the market tells me that everyday people in full time employment claim rental deductions just as frequently as CEOs and surgeons. You can see this for yourself every weekend at opens and auctions. </div>
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<div>In this regard, market experience is as instructive as the tortured data. Not dissimilarly it was obvious during the so-called "homebuyers strike" in Sydney that every second person who called me was a first-time buyer, but rightly or wrongly they were buying an investment property as a first step onto the ladder rather than a home (and as such were not being captured or classified as "homebuyers").</div>
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<div>There have been calls to halve the capital gains tax discount, but with a Coalition Prime Minister with a net worth of well over $100 million, this seems to me to be a seriously remote prospect.<br><br>It's worth noting that the introduction of the capital gains tax discount did not halve tax payable as is frequently implied, rather it replaced the old indexation of the cost base system which ran from 1985 and was not discontinued until 1999, inflicting a searing pain upon tax exam students and preparers of tax returns alike.<br><br>Capital gains tax (CGT) is a crappy tax, especially when it does not account for inflation, effectively a punitive double <a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=7091" target="_blank">taxation of savings</a> which discourages investment. The optimal rate of CGT is zero. In any case new housing is already one of the most heavily taxed commodities there is.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New builds?</span></strong><br><br><div>Finally, on paper, Labor's proposal to limit negative gearing deductions to new builds sound plausible, but in practice this would simply replace one market distortion with another. In particular buyers of new-build investment properties benefitting from tax deductions would discover that their resale market had been ripped out from underneath them, effectively leaving them sitting on six-figure paper losses or "negative equity" from the date of settlement.</div>
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<br>Indeed this already happens to buyers of new properties today, albeit to a less dramatic extent, which is why in the absence of homebuyer grants for new builds developers often sell to self-managed super funds lured by tax incentives and bad advice from accountants, or to foreign buyers. Chris Bowen's assertion that buying new property is not "in any sense" more risky than buying established is discredited by all available research.<br><br>Most of the debate this week has really been about intergenerational equity rather than budget repair, which is sensible, but perhaps overlooks the high level of supply of construction in the pipeline.<br><br>In my opinion changing negative gearing rules - which after all, is a timing difference rather than a genuine tax concession - would generate close to zero additional tax revenue after behavioural change, reduced stamp duty excise and soaring public housing costs are accounted for. In any event, net rental losses have declined since even in nominal terms in 2008, while net rental profits have increased by well over 50 percent.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record residential construction boom: Pete Wargent

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<p>SPONSORED POST</p>
<p>The benefits of living in a sustainable home include a more attractive and <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">healthier environment, and lower costs through savings on energy and water bills.</span></p>
<p>But encouraging sustainability in the residential building sector has presented <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">challenges.</span></p>
<p>“The residential sector is in some ways more complex than any other sector in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">that there are an incredible number of private owners, a pretty average National </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Construction Code, and huge gaps in knowledge both of residents and house builders,” </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">says Vice-Chair of the Board for the Living Future Institute of Australia, Stephen Choi.</span></p>
<p>“Housing in general – and particularly our existing homes – is one of the most <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">important and to some extent, ‘untouched’ areas of the built environment when it </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">comes to providing better places to live.”</span></p>
<p>Despite the barriers, Choi is encouraged by progress in areas such as the ‘fabric <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">first’ approach, which aims to maximise the performance of the components that </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">make up the building fabric itself. Passivhaus is an energy performance standard </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">that uses this approach to set targets for the thermal performance of buildings, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">including homes.</span></p>
<p>About 30,000 buildings worldwide have been constructed to the Passivhaus <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">standard. The standard encourages the use of insulation, passive solar design, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">making a property airtight to minimise unwanted heat loss or gain, and good </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">indoor air quality provided by mechanical ventilation and heat recovery systems.</span></p>
<p>A home’s thermal performance has a major effect on its energy consumption.</p>
<p>About 40 percent of household energy is used for heating and cooling, according to <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">the Australian Government’s Your Home website.</span></p>
<p>“This rate could be cut to almost zero in new housing through sound climate <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">responsive design,” the website says.</span></p>
<p>Energy and water saving measures that reduce utility costs are popular in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">residential properties but beyond the cost savings it has been difficult to engage </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">consumers’ interests in sustainable development, says Frasers Property Australia’s </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">general manager of sustainability Paolo Bevilacqua.</span></p>
<p>As such, sustainability in residential developments has tended to focus on <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">initiatives outside of individual apartments or houses.</span></p>
<p>The residential buildings at Central Park in Sydney share energy and air <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">conditioning facilities rather than each building having its own facility, for</span></p>
<p>instance. This allows for a more efficient system overall. <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Residential developments are increasingly providing access to public transport, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cycle paths and pedestrian footpaths to ensure residents aren’t restricted to </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">travelling by car.</span></p>
<p>Some developments include fitness facilities, swimming pools and walking trails <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">to promote residents’ health. Similarly, parks and gardens, including roof top and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">vertical gardens where space is limited, are becoming more common.</span></p>
<p>Bevilacqua says the green walls at One Central Park is one example of how <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">green elements can be successfully introduced into an urban development.</span></p>
<p>“From a visual point of view it has benefits for people living in those buildings. It’s <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">a beautiful outlook and improves air quality,” he says.</span></p>
<p>Better air purification, access to day light and lighting that works with people’s <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">circadian rhythms are priorities gaining traction in residential developments as </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">people begin to understand the impact on their health and wellbeing, Bevilacqua says.</span></p>
<p>For more information, download our eBook <a href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/tools/ebooks-and-webinars/52152-australia-aspires-to-global-green-leadership-the-living-building-challenge" target="_blank">here</a>. </p>
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What are the future trends in sustainable residential development?

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<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It looks as though 2016 is shaping up to be a year within which the residential construction boom, which has mostly served the demands of foreign investors, begins to tail off.</span></div>
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<div>We should never read too much into the results of one month, of course, but reflecting trends that have already been reported by Housing Industry Association (HIA) finance for the purchase of new dwellings fell by more than 15 percent in February.</div>
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<div>Although it is not yet much reflected in the rolling annual data below, finance for the construction of new dwellings also ticked back by -1.9 per cent in February.</div>
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<div>It may or may not be too early to call the peak on finance for dwelling construction after a very solid run through this cycle, but market releases suggest that building approvals are now on a downslope, and construction will probably follow suit in time too.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market shifting away from investors</span></strong></div>
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<div>Figures showed investor lending steadying at around a seasonally adjusted $11.9 billion, which is still a historically high figure, but some way down from the August 2015 peak.</div>
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<div>A quick glance at the chart for loans outstanding shows how banks and lenders have shifted their focus in favour of home loans, a direct response to APRA's regulatory intervention.</div>
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<div>We know that there remain blurred lines between investor and home loans, but the February data shows that overall the balance has tilted back in favour of owner-occupier finance ($21 billion) over investment housing finance ($11.9 billion).</div>
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<div>Overall, 2016 looks likely to be a steadier year for property markets, as investors are limited in their borrowing capacity.<br><br>It's worth remembering that owner-occupiers represent a greater share of the market, and as such have the potential to push prices up in the areas in which they are buying (think middle-ring suburbs, catchments for good schools, good transport links, appealing shopping and lifestyle locations).<br><br>Investors should now begin to account for about one third of the market, which is much more in line with historical averages.</div>
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<div>With returns from fixed interest accounts so low and mortgage repayments much lower than they were, many in the home ownership sector will look to improve the value of their own homes, or look to acquire renovation projects.</div>
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<div>Indeed major renovations activity is now at long last trending up in all three of the most populous states, with Sydney leading the way by a margin. Renovation activity is presently less popular in Melbourne, with considerably more modern housing available following a strong decade of construction and dwelling supply.</div>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A10.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers subdued</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>While 2016 looks set to be the year of the homebuyer, much of the activity is being driven by refinancing and existing home-owning folk looking to trade up or down, rather than by new market entrants.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Even if the ABS data is not quite complete or accurate, it seems fair to surmise that the share of dwellings financed by first homebuyers is tracking some way below the long run averages.</div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/13/A9.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>2016 therefore seems likely to be a year wherein markets are increasingly moved by homebuyers ahead of investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is worth reiterating here that in part due to high transaction costs, whether bought as a home or a pure investment, property works best as a long term play.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The internet and financial media is largely - though, of course, not absolutely - a fusion of noise, short-termism, misinformation and guesswork when it comes to property market commentary. You only need to look back to 2012 for some classic examples of that.<br><br>In my opinion there is very little value in comparing returns with the share market over a one or two year timeframe. Each asset class has its merits and place in a portfolio, but generally speaking property needs at least a ten year time horizon in order to justify the transaction costs. <br><br>The data yesterday confirmed that home loan activity levels - although not necessarily aggregate mortgage values - are rising solidly in Queensland, and this is readily visible in some of the family-friendly middle ring suburbs of Brisbane. Investor hubs are considerably patchier, and many of the resources regions are an absolute disaster zone. <br><br>A final point of interest for today is that markets had increasingly been lining up bets for an interest rate cut as soon as May, though I personally didn't like the odds of that happening. <br><br>I don't spend hours deliberating over monetary policy wording, but clearly the Reserve Bank (RBA) noted in its most recent decision release that "continued low inflation would allow scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate...".<br><br>There are probably three things that would need to be in place for an interest rate cut, being a cooling of property investor lending (tentative tick), confirmation that hiring is weakening, and evidently confirmation of continued low inflation. <br><br>The Labour Force figures for March are due out on Thursday, and the market consensus sees a fairly moderate result as likely, with some clear risks to the unemployment rate reading, while the March inflation data is due out towards the end of the month.<br><br>There's a bit of water to flow under the bridge between now and then, but a nice bump in key commodity prices overnight and an incredibly strong result from NAB's Business Survey really don't point towards a rate cut at this stage. <br><br>A cracking NAB survey showed a surge in business conditions at their highest level in fully eight years since 2008, and while the employment gauge jumped to a five year high. Business conditions are now showing a reading of +12, absolutely miles above the long run average of +5, and capacity utilisation has improved strongly (I do note here, though, that the outlook for mining remains dire). <br><br>The RBA has arguably been a reluctant cutter through this cycle, so I reckon that rules out a May cut. In fact, interest rates could be on hold for as far as the eye can see. <br><br>As ever, happy to be proven wrong on that, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Residential construction boom tapering off: Pete Wargent

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<p>SPONSORED POST</p>
<p>Over the past few months, the east coast of Australia has been battered by severe storms and we’ve all seen the pictures, with roofs being ripped off and many properties completely destroyed, it’s a scary time for property owners.</p>
<p>As a property owner or investor, fearing for your own home as well as your investment property during these events is a likely source of sleepless nights and it’s a fact that all property owners want and need insurance cover to protect their investment.</p>
<p>However, all too often property owners incorrectly insure their property, whether it be under insured or over insured.</p>
<p>Having your property insured for either its purchase price or its market valuation is not the right solution.</p>
<p>The insured value should be for re-constructing the property and all that that entails.</p>
<p>The insured cost should include for things such as demolition and clean up, design and engineering fees, project management and other consultants fees of the new build, approvals and permits, the cost of the construction works, and importantly the cost of escalation on the rebuild price between the time of destruction and the time of actually rebuilding.</p>
<p>Additionally, when you insure your property for its purchase price or market value you are effectively and unnecessarily insuring the land!</p>
<p>NBtax, being part of the Napier &amp; Blakeley group, are among the most experienced quantity surveyors in the country.</p>
<p>Quantity surveyors are perfectly positioned to advise on the correct levels of insurance for re-building property.</p>
<p>Quantity surveyors are the only professionals in the market place that are qualified to calculate construction costs.</p>
<p>In the event of insurable damage, we also advise property owners in determining the scope and amount of a claim to be submitted, as well as preparing and administering building contracts for repairs or complete reconstruction.</p>
<p>In the event of partial or total destruction of an investment property you should also consider your property tax depreciation deductions.</p>
<p>We are asked by numerous clients what effect might these damaging incidents will have on their existing and future capital (depreciation) allowances on their investment properties. And the question arises where funds from a third party such as an insurer pays for capital works.</p>
<p>In the event of repair works, then all demolished capital items may be written off from the date of demolition. All newly installed and refurbished costs may be claimed once works have been completed. Always remember to keep all your records of expenditure, even those such as skip hire, professional fees and the like.</p>
<p>It is important to identify the assets within your existing property tax depreciation schedules that have been removed as to ascertain their value at the time of removal. NBtax tailors its service for each client when it comes to maintaining accurate property tax depreciation schedules, after any reconstruction or repair works your schedule may need updating.</p>
<p>With exposure to billions of dollars of actual construction costs, our quantity surveyors, provide a solid platform for insurance advice. This advice should also help you negotiate with insurers if you need to make a claim.</p>
<p><em>Contact one of our specialists for <a href="https://nbtax.com.au/" target="_blank">further information</a>.</em></p>
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Being adequately insured is vital

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<p>When it comes to developing, we have all heard about the Development Application (DA) and the Construction Certificate (CC), but how and what exactly is involved with each council approval? </p>
<p>It is important to understand this process before you start developing.    </p>
<p>The DA and CC are two very different approvals. If you find a DA approved site but the CC has not yet been issued, then you should understand that there is still a lot of work to do before you can start to build.</p>
<p><strong>Development Application (DA)</strong></p>
<p>The DA is a request for permission to carry out proposed development. It also categorises the developments as requiring consent, developments not requiring consent (Complying Development, CDC) and prohibited development.  </p>
<p>A development application is required for the following reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li>- Construction of new building or structure, including swimming pools, outbuildings, <br>   retaining wall, jetties, etc </li>
<li>- Add or alter an existing building or structure </li>
<li>- Demolish a building or structure </li>
<li>- Display an advertising sign </li>
<li>- Change the use of an existing building or land </li>
<li>- Carry out excavation, earthworks or adding fill </li>
<li>- Development on or near a heritage listed item </li>
<li>- Development within a heritage conservation area </li>
<li>- Subdivide land or strata subdivide a building</li>
</ul>
<p>A development application must consist of at least:</p>
<ul>
<li>- Completed application form and fees. </li>
<li>- Copies of Site Plans indicating location of the proposed development on the land. </li>
<li>- Copies of Plan/Drawings of the proposed development indicating elevations heights. </li>
<li>- Other supporting documents (if required) </li>
</ul>
<p><strong> Construction Certificate (CC)</strong></p>
<p>A Construction Certificate is required after the DA Consent is issued and before any building work is carried out.  You can apply for a Construction Certificate only if you have prepared detailed plans, specifications or engineering details.  And importantly, if all the council and other service fees and charges have been paid.  This is where some first time developers may get caught out when buying a DA approved site.  It’s very important to understand the Conditions of the DA Consent and how they will impact the development.</p>
<p>The Construction Certificate certifies that relevant matters are adhered to, this includes:</p>
<ul>
<li>- the construction plans and specification comply with the relevant standards (ie Building <br>   Code of Australia);</li>
<li>- the construction plans and specifications are consistent with the development consent; <br>   and </li>
<li>- all conditions of the development consent requiring compliance prior to the issue of a <br>   construction certificate are finalised.</li>
</ul>
<p>Note: The CC is not required for complying development, where building details are covered by a <br> Complying Development Certificate (CDC).</p>
<p>If you are unsure of the planning process, then use a qualified planning consultant or development project manager.  </p>
<p><span><em><em>Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a><a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au">.</a></em></em></span></p>
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jochivers-wq5Bp59R5a

Understanding the planning process: Jo Chivers

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<div id="post-body-5825783051489187345" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>The most timely JLL report showed that the residential construction pipeline is now shrinking fast on tighter lending criteria for developers and investors.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In time this will inevitably lead to tighter rental vacancies, especially as we head into and beyond the traditionally busy Christmas and New Year period, with more Airbnb offerings also set to eat into the rental market through this cycle. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the greatest volume of apartment construction through this cycle Sydney and Melbourne will be the last markets to know about the tightening (although when D-Day does come the presently record high population growth in these cities means that the tightening of rentals market may also be felt most acutely).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>We're already hearing more and more stories of failed or delayed settlements, so the slowing in supply could come about sooner than expected. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The initial impacts will be felt in Hobart, Canberra, Adelaide, and an array of rental markets around regional Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, SQM's latest figures showed that rental vacancies had already fallen to the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/11/lowest-vacancies-since-early-2014" target="_blank">lowest level since 2014</a> by the end of last month, so the process is well underway.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The HIA forecast today in its National Outlook that housing starts will fall by more than 50,000 from the peak, noting (or lamenting) that:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>'APRA’s restrictions were designed to curb high risk lending practices but we are now seeing ordinary home buyers experience delays and constraints in accessing finance.'</div>
<div> </div>
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<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Note that all of this is before Labor's proposed changes to negative gearing come about, which were originally designed to slow investor activity in the raging hot markets of 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Arrivals hit record high</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS released its arrivals and departures figures for the month of September 2018 this morning, which showed permanent and long-term arrivals rising to 823,090 over the year to September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents an increase of 6 per cent from a year earlier, and is the highest figure on record for Australia (the equivalent figure around the time of the Sydney Olympics was about 300,000, which is a measure of just how popular migration to Australia has become).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GgP_6qeACl4/W_IH3qhIk-I/AAAAAAAAs8Q/UA8Qz6OuBs4uLZfomR7yzd6SgnPhAQ3gACLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1364"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Short-term arrivals into Australia have also boomed in recent years, rising to a record high of 9.2 million in September. </div>
<div>
<br>Interestingly the growth is no longer being driven by Chinese tourists, with a range of other countries picking up the mantle, including India.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9e36O96FObc/W_IIPQ4rEKI/AAAAAAAAs8Y/sauXuXL3M88cp9P4W5h8nuuXZV_WA_JCgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1447"></a></div>
<br>Education arrivals were also up by 5 per cent from a year earlier to a record high of 596,400.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s1600/Education.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BeHBJ35BtQ0/W_IKs0Qkn9I/AAAAAAAAs8s/XzTDMdxiWHs0kmY8ed9iJjFEdByWn8HGgCLcBGAs/s640/Education.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="793" data-original-width="1357"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
</div>
<div>Finally, at the state level short-term arrivals were up by 4 per cent in New South Wales to 3.45 million for the year to September, but growth was stronger in Victoria (up 8 per cent to 2.3 million) and Queensland (up 8 per cent to 2 million).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQ5Zsf2TBjQ/W_IIrT42XKI/AAAAAAAAs8g/vzjR8vNOBGA1kafBkeVaYabmGUZesD40gCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1418"></a><br><br>Queensland was a little flattered here by the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2018/04/gc2018hockey" target="_blank">Commonwealth Games XXI</a>, held at Gold Coast earlier this year...although that all seems like a long time ago now!<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Both short- and long-term arrivals hit record highs for the year to September 2018, with accordingly significant implications for housing market demand over the year(s) ahead.<br><br>Australia's visa programme is tilted towards those aged under 30, so there are dramatic implications for rental market demand here as construction slows, as well as pent up demand for entrants to home ownership over the years ahead. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></div>
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Rental vacancies to tighten: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>It's sometimes under-appreciated how Australia's free floating dollar, monetary policy autonomy, flexible labour force, and comparatively low government debt have allowed the economy to adjust through a seriously tumultuous period.</p>
<p>At the peak of the resources construction boom in the third quarter of calendar year 2012 engineering construction activity peaked at $34.8 billion, yet by the end of 2016 had dropped by some 43.3 per cent to under $20 billion. </p>
<p>This is what some people termed the "mining cliff", essentially the period through which resources projects transitioned from the construction phase through to production. </p>
<p>And through all of that we never really did get all that close to a recession, though admittedly rising private debt levels did help to grease the wheels a bit.</p>
<p>Rebound</p>
<p>More than four years on, and engineering construction actually began to rise again in early 2017.</p>
<p>Some of this was to do with infrastructure projects - rail, road, and highways - and some was related to ongoing resources investment in existing projects. </p>
<p>Activity rose quite strongly by +2.8 per cent to $20.3 billion in the first quarter.</p>
<p>Engineering work in the public sector was +10.2 per cent higher over the year, while the quarterly rebound was also helped by a +3 per cent rise in private sector activity in Q1. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/B2.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<div id="post-body-8977417442327794616" class="post-body entry-content">
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/03/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">State versus state</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland took most of its medicine back in 2014 as a number of major LNG projects approached the production phase, but the worst has now passed and annual construction activity levels in the Sunshine State have now been rising for four quarters consecutively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual construction activity has also been rising steadily in New South Wales and Victoria since 2015. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At least as importantly, Western Australia is now at last getting pretty close to the nadir, meaning that WA is no longer suffering the chronic declines that have characterised that past three years. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/03/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/03/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>No boom on the horizon, then, but arithmetically speaking this is positive news for the economy, simply because engineering construction is no longer acting as a drag.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The next pressing challenge will be whether construction employment can remain at today's elevated levels through a combination of residential building and infrastructure projects. </div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Engineering construction no longer an economic drag

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<div>Building Approvals data revealed the expected rebound in February after the seasonal lull in January, but the downtrend is clearly in place from the trend peak of 11 months ago.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>House approvals have rolled a little, but the tailing off is more likely to be seen in the units, apartments and townhouses sector following an impressive burst since 2012. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Capital city analysis</span></strong></p>
<div>House approvals are faading fast in Perth in reaction to elevated vacancy rates, while Melbourne continues to approve the greatest number of houses by some margin, and as such may be the city with the greatest potential for overbuilding. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The last couple of months have been much slower for unit approvals in Sydney and Melbourne, which is now being reflected in the rolling annual figures below.<br><br>After nearly a decade of under-building Sydney is now approving a decent number of attached dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dream over for high rise</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>This record approvals boom for Australia has largely been driven by "high rise" or four plus storey unit blocks, but this part of the approvals boom has noticeably slowed over the past four months. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each gone hard at approvals in the high density sector over the past few years, but all three cities have now passed their respective peaks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/5/BA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With APRA having insisted upon tigher lending criteria for investors building approvals will in all likelihood continue to slow from here, following a record run.<br><br>Even at this well advanced stage in the construction cycle vacancy rates have been tightening in inner Sydney to just 1.3 percent, but cracks are starting to show in some of the secondary and outer areas where vacancy rates are above 2 per cent (and in some pockets higher again). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Building approvals boom all over bar the grouting: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The November 2015 building approvals data show a sharp fall in dwelling approvals led by the volatile unit segment. Seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals were -12.7 percent lower over the month, their largest monthly fall since July 2012.  </span></p>
<p><span>Year-on-year dwelling approvals are -8.4 percent lower and approvals have retracted to be -16.8 percent lower than their recent record highs. The data indicates a slowing in developer appetite for approvals and, given the slowing demand for mortgages from investors and slowing home value growth, it is a trend which is likely to continue over the coming months.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The decline in approvals in November was led by units however, house approvals, which haven’t seen the same level of acceleration as units, also recorded a fall over the month.  House approvals were -0.6 percent lower over the month and -2.2 percent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, unit approvals declined by -24.0 percent in November and were -15.0 percent lower year-on-year.  Although the unit approvals series is much more volatile series than houses, it has now started trending lower with approvals -30.3 percent lower than their recent record high of 11,084 approvals in July 2015.  </span></p>
<p><span>House approvals are also trending lower, albeit at a more moderate pace, down -9.4 percent from their recent peak of 10,376 approvals in April 2015. The most recent Census in 2011 shows that 21.2 percent of detached houses are rented compared to 56.0 percent of units. The recent sharp fall in investor housing finance commitments is much more likely to impact on demand for new units than new houses and we may be seeing developers starting to react to this market shift.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The data on unit approvals by type further highlights the recent boom in high-rise (4 storeys and greater) unit approvals. Historically townhouses have been the product of choice for medium and high density developers however, over the past four years we have seen record high levels of high rise construction. Both monthly and annual data points to demand for high-rise approvals starting to fall although it should be noted that high-rise approvals still account for a majority of unit approvals. </span></p>
<p>High-rise approvals could be considered a bit of a double-edged sword for developers, in one instance they are considered the highest and best use of land in areas of strategic significance (eg along transport spines and in areas closed to major working nodes like the CBD) however, they are heavily reliant on achieving a particular level of presales.</p>
<p>From an economic sense they take longer to build so the economic benefit of the construction is stretched over a longer period of time however, they are ultimately less likely to end up constructed because much more financing is required and they are so dependent on adequate levels of presales.</p>
<p>It is likely that given units are much more likely to be purchased by investors and investor demand is now falling that a larger than normal proportion of these units will not end up constructed in this new phase of the housing cycle.  Historically around 98% of units approved are constructed compared to around 85% of units.</p>
<p>Much like home sales, values and investment related mortgage demand, we are now also seeing early signs of a slowing in dwelling approvals. Although approvals are slowing there is still a large number of unit projects under construction which should continue to provide a high level of economic benefit as the recent record high number of dwelling approvals continues for a few years. Of course the huge surge in housing construction at a time when population growth is slowing means that there is a better balance between housing supply and demand. In fact in certain areas there are now concerns about oversupply, particularly in inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>This is going to be a key theme to watch during 2016 particularly considering that we are already seeing investor demand falling and record low levels of rental growth. The next challenge will be when these units come to settlement will their initial valuation hold up and will the changed lending landscape mean that some purchasers will have to find larger deposits in order to settle.  Furthermore, if they purchased for investment purposes the next challenge may just be finding someone to rent the property.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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