Resales

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EXPERT OBSERVER
CoreLogic’s recently released Pain and Gain report highlighted a growing divergence between houses and units for loss making resales. 
Unit markets recorded a higher proportion of loss making resales relative to houses across every broad region of Australia over the June quarter.  
The latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report provides a summary of gross profit and loss making resales across the country. The results show a consistent and long underperformance across the unit sector, and more recently, a growing divergence between the proportion of houses and units reselling at a gross loss. The June quarter report revealed that 14.3% of units that resold across the capital cities transacted at a gross loss; roughly double the rate of loss making house resales. Across the combined regional areas of Australia, loss making unit resales comprised 16.1% of transactions while a lower 10.3% of houses resold at a gross loss.
Every capital city and rest of state region across the country has seen the unit sector record a larger proportion of loss making sales across the unit sector compared with detached housing, however the differential is substantial in those cities where unit values have fallen more materially.
Across the capital cities, Darwin stands out as showing the highest proportion of loss making unit resales, with 71% of units reselling at a loss over the June quarter. Considering Darwin unit values have fallen 44% since peaking in May 2010, the high rate of loss on resales should come as no surprise; in fact Darwin unit values are back to the same level they were in February 2005. Darwin house values haven’t fall any where near as much, down 11% since peaking.  
Regional Western Australia has recorded the second highest level of loss making resales for units (56.7%) followed by Perth at 47.8%. Both regions have seen unit values fall substantially more than house values. Since peaking in January 2008, regional WA unit values are down 47.5% and are now back to levels seen in 1988. In Perth, unit values are 18.2% lower after peaking in July 2013 and are now worth the same value as they were in May 2006.
Amongst the capital cities, Brisbane also stood out for a high rate of loss making unit resales, with 29.2% transacting at a gross loss over the quarter compared with only 4.1% of houses selling at a gross loss. Brisbane unit values are back to where they were in August 2007 after declining by 10.8% from their 2008 peak.  
The lowest rates of loss making unit resales were in those regions where unit values have shown more buoyant conditions. Hobart recorded the lowest portion of loss making unit resales, with only 2.9% reselling at a gross loss over the June quarter. Hobart unit values are at a record high after recording solid capital gains over the past few years. It was only five years ago, after a long period of weak housing market conditions, when 25% of Hobart units were reselling at a gross loss.  
The Sydney unit market was showing the second lowest proportion of loss making unit resales over the June quarter. Despite rising levels of unit supply, only 3.5% of Sydney units resold at a gross loss over the quarter. Unit values are down 2.6% since peaking in November last year, and values remain 43% higher relative to five years ago. With a recent history of such strong capital gains, the vast majority of Sydney unit owners are still in a positive value position relative to their purchase price, however as values continue to slip lower and supply levels rise, we are likely to see loss making resales rise.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%201.jpeg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%201.jpeg" alt="">
There are a variety of factors that could be contributing to the higher proportion of loss making sales across the unit market. 
For starters, units are more likely to be owned by investors. Around 68% of units are investor owned, 51% of townhouses are owned by investors and only 22% of houses.  CoreLogic Pain and Gain data shows investor owned dwellings have a higher propensity to resell at a loss which is probably attributable to the fact that investors can take advantage of taxation benefits such as offsetting their losses against future capital gains.  
Unit markets can be more prone to oversupply. This trend has been evident across the Brisbane and Melbourne inner city markets to different extents.  Focusing on some of the key inner city unit markets, Brisbane’s inner city recorded 32% of unit resales at a loss over the quarter and Melbourne’s inner city recorded 22% at a loss. Unit construction has been winding down across Queensland since late 2016, but remains at record levels across Victoria and close to record highs in New South Wales. With unit values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne and the pipeline at, or close to record highs, its likely that loss making resales will diverge further in these markets.
There is also the factor of the underlying land value. Even though dwelling values are sliding in some markets, land prices have generally held firm or continued to trend higher.  Detached houses have a stronger relationship with land values which is likely contributing to the long run trend of higher capital gains for houses relative to units.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%202.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/24/tim%20lawless%202.jpg" alt=""> 
Tim Lawless heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team
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Unit owners are more likely to record a loss at sale: Tim Lawless

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Over the June 2019 quarter, resales of residential properties in Perth created $834.9 million worth of resale profits which accounted for 5.1% of resale profits nationally, according to the latest data from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain Report.
Their findings showed, Perth also created $166.5 million in loss-making resales accounting for 23.0% of all losses nationally.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20PRTH%201.JPG" alt="">
Peppermint Grove had no resales at a loss over the quarter, while Nedlands was the only other region with less than a quarter of resales at a loss.
The highest share of resale losses were in Perth, Belmont and Bayswater.
Greater Perth has continued to see values fall over the quarter and subsequently resale losses have also risen, a trend likely to continue, CoreLogic said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20PRTH%202.JPG" alt="">
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Quarter of Australia's loss-making property resales occurred in Perth: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

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Across the nation, a higher proportion of houses are resold at a profit than units, according to the latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report for the June quarter.
They found that this trend is also evident across the combined capital city and combined regional markets.
In Melbourne, units were more than 4.5 times likely to resell at a loss than houses while in Brisbane units were 5.5 times as likely to resell for a loss as houses and in Canberra units were 7.4 times more likely to resell at a loss than houses.
Each and every individual capital city and rest of state region recorded a greater share of unit resales at a loss than houses.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20NAT.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20NAT.JPG" alt="">
"For the capital cities, the proportion of houses reselling at a gross profit was lower over the quarter in all capital cities except for Hobart and Darwin," the report said.
"For capital city units, the share of resales at a profit was lower over the quarter across each capital city except for Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra.
"For the regional housing markets, the proportion of houses reselling for a profit reduced over the quarter in all regional markets except WA.
"For units, profit-making resales increased over the quarter in regional Vic, regional SA, regional Tas and regional NT with declines recorded elsewhere."
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Unit resales at a loss were double house resales: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

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Throughout the second quarter of 2019, the total value of resales for a profit in Sydney was $4.404 billion and the total value of resales at a loss was $178.7 million, according to the latest Pain &amp; Gain report from CoreLogic.
Based on this data, Sydney accounted for 24.6% of all resales at a profit nationally over the quarter and 27.0% of the total value of resale losses.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20Sydney%202.JPG" alt="">
The council areas with the lowest share of resales at a loss over the quarter were Randwick, The Hills Shire and Hawkesbury while the greatest share of loss were recorded in Strathfield, Botany Bay and Strathfield.
With dwelling values in Sydney starting to rise over recent months CoreLogic believes we are likely to see the share of resales at a loss fall over the coming quarters.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20Sydney%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20Sydney%201.JPG" alt="">
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Sydney resales accounted for 25% of all profitable resales this quarter: CoreLogic

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Based on resales across Greater Brisbane over the second quarter of 2019, the total value of resales at a profit was $1.341 billion, according to the latest Pain &amp; Gain report from CoreLogic.
The total value of resales at a loss was recorded at $37.7 million.
CoreLogic found Brisbane generated 8.2% of the total value of resale profits nationally over the quarter and 5.2% of the losses.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20BRIS%202.JPG" alt="">
The Brisbane council regions with the lowest proportion of resales at a loss were Redland, Lockyer Valley and Moreton Bay while the highest proportion of resale losses occurred in Scenic Rim, Somerset and Brisbane.
The large divergence between houses and units for loss making sales is likely attributable to higher supply levels across key areas of the inner city and the subsequent falling unit values.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20BRIS%201.JPG" alt="">
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P&G Greater Brisbane resales at a profit valued at $1.35 billion: CoreLogic

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Over the June 2019 quarter, resales of Melbourne properties generated $4.316 billion worth of profits and $70.7 million in losses, according to the latest data from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain Report.
These figures indicated that Melbourne generated 26.4% of total resale profits nationally over the quarter as well as producing 9.8% of total resales losses.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20MELB%202.JPG" alt="">
Over the quarter, there were no resales at a loss in Macedon Ranges and Moorabool.
The council regions with the highest proportion of resales at a loss were Melbourne, Port Phillip and Stonnington.
With dwelling values now starting to rise throughout the city, the share of houses and units resold for a loss may start to fall over the coming quarters.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/1/PG%20MELB%201.JPG" alt="">
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35% of all Melbourne property resales were at a loss: CoreLogic

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During the second quarter of 2019, resales of Adelaide properties generated $693.1 million in profits and $14.7 million in losses, according to the latest data from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain Report.
Their findings indicated, these resales accounted for 4.2% of total resale profits nationally and 2.0% of resale losses. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/Resales%20ADL%201.JPG" alt="">
There were no resales at a loss over the quarter in Mallala and a low share of losses in Burnside and Mitcham while the greatest share of resale losses occurred in Adelaide, Playford and Gawler.
Adelaide is continuing to see moderate declines in dwelling values and as a result the share of resales at a loss increased moderately over the past quarter and this trend is expected to continue.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/Resales%20ADL%202.JPG" alt="">
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Largest share of SA's property resale losses were in Adelaide: CoreLogic

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Some 13.8 percent of resold homes across Perth in the December 2015 quarter were sold for less than the previous purchase price which was the highest proportion of loss-making resales since July 2012. 
The 11.4% of resales at a loss is up from just 5.4 percent 12 months ago. The Peppermint Grove council area recorded no resales at a loss over the quarter, while Bassendean (4.9 percent) and Canning (5.7 percent) were the other two regions with the lowest proportion of loss-making resales. 
The highest proportion of loss-making resales occurred in the Perth (43.1 percent), Claremont (37.9 percent) and Mandurah (28.7 percent) council areas.
<a href="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%202.49.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/30/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-30%20at%202.49.38%20PM.png" alt="">
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Perth hit by highest proportion of loss-making resales since 2012: CoreLogic Pain & Gain

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The vast majority of property owners who sold their home in the December 2015 quarter sold at in excess of their previous purchase price, according the latest CoreLogic RP Data quarterly Pain and Gain Report. 
The Pain &amp; Gain Report found that 91.6 percent of properties resold for profit over the quarter with 31.2 percent of homes selling for more than double their purchase price. The total value of all profit was $17.1 billion with the average gross ‘gain’ $270,842 per sale.
CoreLogic RP Data senior research analyst Mr Kusher said Sydney house values have seen significant increases in values over recent years and therefore, fewer loss-making resales occurred compared with other capital cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-29%20at%2011.14.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-29%20at%2011.14.38%20AM.png" alt="">
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