Renovations

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<div>Total construction work done declined by a further 1.9 percent in the June 2016 quarter to $47.8 billion, to be 7.9 percent lower over the year. </div>
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<div>The result was driven by another 5.1 percent decline in engineering construction in the quarter - largely mining related - to leave this component down by 24.9 percent year-on-year.</div>
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<div>The building boom, on the other hand, continues apace. </div>
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<div>Although there has been a solid increase in alterations and additions (major renovations) lately, record building activity through this cycle has been overwhelmingly been driven by "other residential" building, specifically units, apartments, and townhouses.  </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining cliff now 4 years old</span></strong></div>
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<div>Next month it will be fully four years since the so-termed "mining cliff" began. </div>
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<div>Interestingly engineering construction work done increased in the June 2016 quarter in Queensland, where most of the retracement has already taken place, while activity has actually trended up strongly in New South Wales and Victoria over the past year. </div>
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<div>I've long been warning that Western Australia would have to take its medicine sooner or later, and the reality check kicked in this quarter, with engineering construction crashing down to be some 48 per cent lower than one year ago. </div>
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<div>These figures confirm what has no doubt been obvious on the ground for some time - that the local economy is doing it tough as it passes through this painful slowdown period.</div>
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<div>Engineering construction work done has also fallen substantially in the Northern Territory over the last six quarters, including by a further 28 per cent over the past year, with only the massive Ichthys LNG project is holding this result aloft.</div>
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<div class="separator">The good news is that the decline in engineering construction is now thought to be around 80 percent complete, meaning that sooner or later this will stop being such a drag on the economy. </div>
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<div class="separator">In fact, in New South Wales, Victoria, and now Queensland, it already has. </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record building boom continues</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The building boom and its associated multiplier effect has largely benefited the largest capital cities.</div>
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<div>New house building, while still increasing steadily in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, appears to have peaked for this cycle nationally.</div>
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<div>On the other hand the value of construction work done on attached dwellings was still tracking at record levels in the June quarter. </div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br>Residential building activity was still running at full pelt through the second quarter of the year, pushing up building costs in cities such as Sydney.<br><br>The Housing Industry Association (HIA) announced today that it believes that new home building will now decline for the next three years, with annual commencements falling from a peak of over 232,500 dwellings to 166,500 in 2018/19, with some downside risks to the forecast.</div>
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<div>The good news is that engineering construction will have already stopped falling significantly over the next 18 months.<br><br>Ichthys aside, most of the project-driven declines have now washed through the figures outside Western Australia.<br><br>Analysts expect to see moderate GDP growth in the second quarter of calendar year 2016 with net exports not making much of a contribution this time around.<br><br>On balance, though, the planned hand-off has been pulled off very well, with Australia now getting close to the bottom of its mining cliff.<br><br>Although resources regions have felt the pain, the largest capital cities have by and large pulled through relatively unscathed. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record building boom continues: Pete Wargent

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<p>Renovations to the Sydney Opera House by the NSW Government will feature a new function centre and other upgrades as part of the state government's $202 million Renewal project.</p>
<p>Proposed upgrades include the Function Centre, relocation of the existing Ballet Rehearsal Room, removal of the marquee on the Northern Boardwalk, and installation of removable bollards and umbrellas on the Northern Boardwalk.</p>
<p>Ben Lusher, Director, Key Sites Assessments, said the upgrades will not adversely impact the heritage fabric of the Sydney Opera House.</p>
<p>“The Department has considered the issues raised through community consultation as well as comments provided by NSW Heritage. Ensuring the heritage of one of Australia’s most iconic buildings is a key priority, so we have recommended a heritage consultant be engaged throughout the construction stages of the development,” he said.</p>
<p>“The heritage consultant would oversee the works to the interior walls and ensure significant fabric of the building is preserved, restored or removed appropriately.</p>
<p>“The Sydney Opera House upgrades will also see The Australian Ballet’s existing secondary rehearsal room relocated with improved facilities, and a new production kitchen to support the Function Centre, installed in its place.</p>
<p>“The upgrades will help make one of Australia’s most iconic landmarks a more functional space and allow even more people to enjoy the facilities of the Sydney Opera House.” </p>
<p>Development works are valued at $16.7 million.</p>
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Green light for Sydney Opera House renovations

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) fell by 3.1 per cent in May to a 3-month low. Commitment are down 0.5 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>Trends: In trend terms, loans for alterations and additions of homes (renovations) hit 7-year highs. Personal loans hit a 141⁄2-year low in May. Annual lending to buy land hit record highs.</p>
<p>Airfares: In smoothed terms, discount airfares are up by 6.2 per cent on a year with restricted economy fares up 4.9 per cent and business airfares up 2.5 per cent.</p>
<p>Chinese trade: In June, exports were up 11.3 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.7 per cent). Imports were up 17.2 per cent (forecast +13.1 per cent). The trade surplus rose from US$40.81 billion to US$42.77bn.</p>
<p>The lending figures have implications for builders, housing-reliant businesses, finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending. The Chinese trade data can affect currency markets and provide insights for exporters and importers.</p>
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<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>New data shows that renovation loans hit 7-year highs in trend terms in May, suggesting that more people have decided to stay put and add extra rooms or revamp kitchens and bathrooms. Still others may be sprucing up their homes for sale, following the advice on TV makeover shows. Whether it is the purchase of a new property or updating an existing abode, the family home is the centre of the universe.</p>
<p>While some have been taking out bigger loans to buy homes, it is clear that consumers more generally are paring back other forms of debt. Figures out yesterday show that credit card debt continues to shrink when compared with a year ago and non-housing loan commitments are at the lowest levels for over 14 years. High and rising debt tends to get plenty of coverage, not so the more conservative attitude to debt which is actually the more dominating trend.</p>
<p>If consumer balance sheets were in such bad shape, more Aussie would be speaking to banks about consolidating or refinancing existing debt. Rather, debt consolidation and refinancing accounts for just 20 per cent of personal lending commitments – a 16 1⁄2-year low.</p>
<p>Inflation is starting to creep back into consciousness. New data shows airfares are lifting with discount fares over six per cent higher on a year ago. And the Melbourne Institute reported today that its measure of inflation expectations ((30-percent trimmed mean measure), rose to a 4-year high of 4.4 per cent in July.</p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Lending Finance:</p>
<p>Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) fell by 3.1 per cent in May to a 3-month low. Commitment are down 0.5 per<br> cent over the year.</p>
<p>All housing finance rose by 3.1 per cent in May with construction and purchase up 2.9 per cent and alterations and additions up 10.1 per cent.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
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<p>In trend terms, loans for alterations &amp; additions hit 7-year highs in May.</p>
<p>Commercial finance fell by 6.4 per cent in May after falling 6.1 per cent in April and rising by 14.2 per cent in March. Within commercial commitments, fixed lending fell by 4.9 per cent while revolving credit fell by 12.5 per cent. Commercial loans are up 0.4 per cent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Personal finance fell by 0.5 per cent in May – the fifth straight decline. Fixed lending commitments rose by 1.2 per cent, while revolving credit commitments fell by 3.1 per cent. Personal loans are down 18.4 per cent on a year ago. In trend terms personal loans are at 141⁄2-year lows.</p>
<p>Lease finance rose by 1.1 per cent in May to stand 25.4 per cent higher over the year.</p>
<p>Chinese trade:</p>
<p>In June, exports were up 11.3 per cent on a year ago (forecast +8.7 per cent). Imports were up 17.2 per cent (forecast +13.1 per cent). The trade surplus rose from US$40.81 billion to US$42.77 billion.</p>
<p>Airfares:</p>
<p>The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) reports that business class airfares fell by 0.1 per cent in July after falling 0.9 per cent in June. Business class airfares still stand 2.2 per cent higher than a year ago. In smoothed terms, business class airfares are up 2.5 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>“Restricted economy” airfares rose by 1.9 per cent in July after lifting 0.8 per cent in June. Restricted economy airfares are up 5.8 per cent on a year ago – the strongest growth in 18 months. In smoothed terms, restricted economy fares were up by 4.5 per cent on a year ago – the strongest growth in 17 months.</p>
<p>Discount fares fell by 2.3 per cent in July after falling by 4.9 per cent in June and rising by 8.3 per cent in May. Clearly discount fares have been volatile in recent months. Discount fares are up 5.9 per cent over the year. In smoothed terms (13 month moving average), discount fares are up 6.2 per cent.</p>
<p>Inflation expectations:</p>
<p>According to the Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations, the expected inflation rate (30-per cent trimmed mean measure), rose by 0.8 percentage points to 4.4 per cent in July from 3.6 per cent in June.</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.</p>
<p>China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly economic statistics around mid-month. Quarterly GDP data is released around the 19th of January, April, July and October. China’s Customs Office releases trade data, and the People’s Bank of China releases financial statistics, around the 10th of each month. China is </p>
<p>Australia’s largest trading partner and changes in the Chinese economic have major implications for the Aussie economy.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases regular aviation data. The BITRE releases the Australian Domestic Airline Activity publication each month as well as the Domestic Air Fares publication. The data provides insights on airline activity as well as trends in the broader Australian economy. If more people are flying, then it suggests businesses are more active and/or consumers are more confident.</p>
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<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>Consumers and businesses aren’t keen to take on new debt. The main exceptions being loans to buy or renovate homes or to buy a new or used car. In total though, personal lending is the lowest in 141⁄2 years. And for the past six months both commercial and lease loans have been shrinking when compared with a year ago.</p>
<p>Inflation is starting to return to our consciousness. While it is still early days, it is a trend worth watching as higher inflation rates naturally mean higher cash rates.</p>
<p>The latest Chinese data is encouraging with both exports and imports well up on a year ago and the trade surplus expanding as well as beating forecasts. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a strong Chinese economy is in our interests. </p>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Craig James is the chief economist at </em><a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>CommSec</em></span></a><em>.</em> </span></p>
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Renovation loans at 7-year high: Craig James

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>When renovating for profit, never rely on a selling agent’s estimate of renovated value.</p>
<p>Buyers should do their own research to establish the ceiling price of fully-renovated properties in the suburbs they are looking to buy.</p>
<p>You can’t rely on selling agents to give you an accurate estimate of the renovated value of a property.</p>
<p>Not only is it in their nature to be very bullish with sale prices as no one wants to list their property for sale with a pessimist; it’s also in their clients’ financial interest for them to be bullish.</p>
<p>They want to paint the property in the best possible light to encourage you to make an offer on it. </p>
<p>The other problem is that it’s also an unqualified estimate as they may interpret what you intend to do with the property as more high end than you are actually planning.</p>
<p>Many property experts are predicting that unrenovated houses will be the most sought-after property purchases in 2017 as buyers shy away from an oversupply of new apartment buildings.</p>
<p>Those properties in need of renovation will be even more popular this year especially if they are livable, allowing DIY renovators to move in and reside onsite whilst undertaking renovation works over time.</p>
<p>When you’re renovating for profit, adding value is the name of the game.</p>
<p>Unfortunately you can’t add unlimited value to a property because there is a limit as to what the market will pay no matter how good it looks.</p>
<p>Once a home has reached its ceiling price for the accommodation it offers, buyers will not pay more.</p>
<p>When you’re undertaking comparable market analysis you need to establish the ceiling price of fully renovated properties that are similar to the ones you’re targeting.</p>
<p>Be mindful of the top values and resist the temptation to overspend.</p>
<p>Tips when searching for an unrenovated property:</p>
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<li>Get to know the price difference between renovated and unrenovated properties in your chosen area so you know what you can spend and still not overcapitalise.</li>
<li>Find out which streets to avoid and the unique pockets that attract higher prices.</li>
<li>Understand the value of desirable features: parking, views, proximity to shops, schools, parks and public transport.</li>
<li>Get lots of ideas for improvements for your property by looking at the features of other homes that are for sale.</li>
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<p><em>Patrick Bright is the Director of buyer’s agency EPS Property Search and can be contacted <a href="https://www.epspropertysearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Never rely on a selling agent's estimate of renovated value: Patrick Bright

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Homeowners are electing to undertake renovations rather than sell their properties in an attempt to avoid stamp duty.</span></p>
<p><span>The number of property transactions had hit a four year low for the month of October 2016 according to data from the NSW Office of State Revenue. </span></p>
<p><span>The number of Land Related Transactions transactions in October 2016 was 17,312, almost 12 percent less than the same period last year and at levels last seen in 2012. </span></p>
<p><span>There were 55,745 transactions for the first 3 months of the 2016/2017 financial year down 7 percent on 2015/2016. The fall in transactions saw a decline in government revenue of more than 4 percent to $2.0643 billion. </span></p>
<p><span>Latest building approval data from the ABS highlights what we had been suspecting for some time, homeowners are electing to renovate and add value to their properties rather than throwing money away though stamp duty associated with purchasing a new home. </span></p>
<p><span>It is time for the NSW government to recognise this trend and review stamp duty levels. It is totally unacceptable that the government has allowed stamp duty levels to remain unchanged for 30 years. </span></p>
<p><span>A review of stamp duty rates would result in more transactions and would benefit not only residents of NSW but would act to increase revenues that are currently in decline.</span></p>
<p><em>John Cunningham is president, REINSW and can be contacted <a href="https://www.reinsw.com.au/imis15_Prod/web" target="_blank">here</a>. </em></p>
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Stamp duty hampers property transactions: REINSW

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<p>The talented Three Birds team - who got together as their husbands once played for the Parramatta Eels - have secured the sale of their fifth residential renovation project.</p>
<p>It is a little home in Baulkham Hills that sold at $1.35 million earlier this month.</p>
<p>The Oakland Avenue house was bought by the team - Lana Taylor, Bonnie Hindmarsh and Erin Cayless - for $922,500 in May. </p>
<p>After nine weeks, the former fibro suburban house was transformed into a cottage-style home with extension.</p>
<p>It was marketed by Jane Booty at Century 21 as a "lust-worthy home with unparalleled street appeal."</p>
<p>It sold to a young couple from Strathfield who have family nearby.</p>
<p>"The couple are as gorgeous as the house… it’s a perfect fit," Booty said.</p>
<p>The Three Birds Renovations have worked their makeover magic previously at Northmead, Castle Hill and Beecroft since kicking off their new career in mid-2014.</p>
<p>Lana Taylor, Bonnie Hindmarsh and Erin Cayless had long spent time on the NRL game day sidelines, exchanging tips about paint colours, carpet samples and new bathrooms while their husbands Jason, Nathan and Nathan ran around for the Parramatta Eels.</p>
<p>The trio are planning on renovating three homes a year in The Hills district.</p>
<p>The Baulkham Hills offering came with a new designer style kitchen and a bathroom, featuring the striking black freestanding bathtub from Caroma.</p>
<p>Outside they added a tiered deck, with new alfresco area overlooking the landscaped rear gardens.</p>
<p>The project was watched by their more than 90,000 dedicated followers on Facebook and Instagram. They also filmed their own digital show in partnership with realestate.com.au.</p>
<p>The fibro had been owned by the Coddington family, who tragically lost two sons — Tim and Sam — in a plane crash while on a surfing holiday in Manila in 2002.</p>
<p>Their mother approached Bonnie when she wanted to sell the home and asked them to purchase it and bring it back to life. </p>
<p>It's back story had Bonnie Hindmarsh engaged to the seller's son, Sam who passed away on a surfing trip when he was in his 20s. </p>
<p><em>This article was first published in the Sunday Telegraph.</em></p>
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Three Birds Renovations score Baulkham Hills flip success 

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<p>Laing O’Rourke Australia has won a competitive tender for Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) in the Sydney Opera House’s Stage 1 Building Renewal program, which comprises $250 million of projects to be carried out over the next five years.</p>
<p>The program is the largest package of works since the Opera House opened in 1973. It includes upgrades to the Opera House‘s two largest internal performance spaces, the Concert Hall and Joan Sutherland Theatre, as well as upgrades to the entry and foyers and new creative learning and function centres.</p>
<p>Under the ECI contract, Laing O’Rourke will work with the Opera House and its design teams to ensure the program is as efficient as possible and provides the best value for money. </p>
<p>Sydney Opera House chief executive officer Louise Herron said the first project to reach construction will be the upgrade of the Joan Sutherland Theatre.</p>
<p>This theatre will be closed from May to December 2017 to replace its end of life equipment.</p>
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Laing O'Rourke secures Opera House works contract

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<p>The NSW Deputy Premier and Minister for the Arts, Troy Grant has unveiled working designs for the largest program of upgrades to the Opera House since it opened in 1973.</p>
<p>Some 8.2 million visit each year, but the precinct will need to be closed for around 18 months as the NSW Government has committed $202 million from the renewal plans.</p>
<p>They will:</p>
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<li>Upgrade the acoustics, accessibility, efficiency and flexibility of the Opera House’s largest internal performance space, the Concert Hall, which hosts world-leading classical and contemporary musicians, speakers and other performers;</li>
<li>Transform office space into a new Creative Learning Centre, a dedicated place for children, families and young people;</li>
<li>Remove the existing intrusive marquee from the Northern Broadwalk, and build a premium Function Centre within the building envelope, with spectacular views of the harbour; and</li>
<li>Create a welcoming, car-free entrance under the Monumental Steps, and improve access to a more comfortable and inviting main foyer.</li>
</ul>
<p>Australia’s premier tourist destination and performing arts centre, the Opera House contributes $775 million annually to the NSW economy and has a national-identity value of $4.6 billion, according to Deloitte Access Economics.</p>
<p>Jan Utzon, architect and member of the Opera House’s Eminent Architects Panel (EAP), said his father believed the building would need to change over time to meet the requirements of the day, while retaining the integrity of its architecture.</p>
<p>“When my father was re-engaged to look into the Opera House, he realised it was necessary to look at the Opera House with new eyes,” said Mr Utzon, who worked with his father after Jørn’s re-engagement in 1999. “He realised times had changed and that a functioning arts centre will always need to adapt to the culture of the moment.”</p>
<p>The largest of the four NSW Government-funded projects, the Concert Hall upgrade is expected to take 18 months to complete. Construction will begin in mid-2019 and the hall will reopen with the SSO’s 2021 season.   </p>
<p>For more information see: <a href="https://sydneyoperahouse.cmail19.com/t/r-l-wtltrut-hjiyfudly-i/">sydneyoperahouse.com/renewal</a></p>
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Sydney Opera House set for 18 month closure

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<p>The upkeep and maintenance of rental properties by tradespeople and maintenance workers is directly related to the tax offset of "Other Rental Deductions" according to Nicholas Proud, principal, Property and Construction Analytics Australia.</p>
<p>He said the most recent ATO Taxation data saw Other Rental Deductions soar to $18.376 billion for 2013-14 which via negative gearing drives repairs and maintenance activity in such a way that should see tradies taking more than a casual interest in the result of the July 2 election.</p>
<p>“Outside of council rates, water charges , travel and insurances there are a lot of plumbers, sparkies, chippies and other asset maintenance workers such as cleaners, gardeners and handymen whose work makes up this Other Rental Deductions figure that can be claimed by property owners at tax time," he said.</p>
<p>“Unlike any election before the value of this type of work assisted by negative gearing concessions is at record levels.</p>
<p>“In contrast to other elections, annual Other Rental Deductions in 1996 sat at $4.55 billion at the time of the election of the Howard Government, it has risen by $13.83 billion per annum since then. Even more recently, since the 2007 election of the Rudd Government the annual value of Other Rental Deductions declared has increased by $6.82 billion.</p>
<p>“What hasn’t been factored into account really is the impact on those smaller handy trades that comprise a significant part of the property and construction workforce if the negative gearing concession is changed or quarantined to new dwellings only.</p>
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<p><strong>Taxable Income</strong></p>
</td>
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<p><strong>Other Rental Deductions</strong></p>
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<p><strong>Other Rental Deductions No.</strong></p>
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<p align="center"><strong>Average Deduction</strong></p>
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<p align="center"><strong>%</strong></p>
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<p>Less than or equal to $18,200</p>
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<p>$2,253,074,560</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="89">
<p>277,693</p>
</td>
<td width="63">
<p align="right">$8,114</p>
</td>
<td width="64">
<p align="right">14%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="156">
<p>$18,201 to $37,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="100">
<p>$2,325,522,579</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="89">
<p>314,028</p>
</td>
<td width="63">
<p align="right">$7,405</p>
</td>
<td width="64">
<p align="right">16%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="156">
<p>$37,001 to $80,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="100">
<p>$5,632,316,431</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="89">
<p>702,735</p>
</td>
<td width="63">
<p align="right">$8,015</p>
</td>
<td width="64">
<p align="right">35%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="156">
<p>$80,001 to $180,000</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="100">
<p>$5,686,914,423</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="89">
<p>575,554</p>
</td>
<td width="63">
<p align="right">$9,881</p>
</td>
<td width="64">
<p align="right">29%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="156">
<p>$180,000 or more</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="100">
<p>$2,479,123,491</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="89">
<p>149,268</p>
</td>
<td width="63">
<p align="right">$16,609</p>
</td>
<td width="64">
<p align="right">7%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="156">
<p><strong>Total</strong></p>
</td>
<td width="100">
<p align="center"><strong>$18,376,951,484</strong></p>
</td>
<td width="89">
<p align="center"><strong>2,019,278.00</strong></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="63">
<p align="center"><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="64">
<p align="center"><strong> </strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>“By income, those on a taxable income under $180,000 are likely to declare an Other Rental Deduction under $10,000.</p>
<p>“Across the electorates, 126 out of the 150 lower house seats on average declared an Other Rental Deduction under $10,000.</p>
<p>“If negative gearing was quarantined to new homes only there would be no concession for  the upkeep of existing homes, which are the homes that most need the reinvestment.</p>
<p>“With no offset it is likely that only those repairs and maintenance that are most fundamental to the upkeep of the property will be made which not only will reduce activity and also have the potential to reduce the quality of rental stocks in the lower yield suburbs which would be detrimental to tenants.</p>
<p>“Exactly how many entry-level handy jobs and low-level trades maintenance workers would go is difficult to say, but the growth in this deduction since 1995-96 shows a reasonable baseline to consider the scale of any such decline."</p>
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