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EXPERT INSIGHT

Australia’s housing market recorded respectable growth over 2020 and with limited stock and strong demand, 2021 should see further price increases.

The winding back of Jobkeeper and Jobseeker may see temporary issues for tenants in some capital cities but the trend to relocate to the regional areas currently being experienced is likely to gain further momentum.

Traditionally there is a reduction in the number of house sales over the holiday period due to buyers going away for the festive period but due to the current restrictions people are taking advantage of the market conditions whilst they are unable to travel and looking to buy while they can. 
The property sector has been crucial to Australia’s economic performance, adding that Government stimulus measures and continued low interest rates have been, in part responsible for the resilient demand for residential property. 
Even though growth in new dwelling investment is unlikely in the 2020/21 fiscal year, given the lags between building approvals and construction activity, the forecast for dwelling investment has been revised from -4 percent in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook to -3.5 per cent in MYEFO. 
With the possibility of a Federal election being called as early as August 2021 it was critical policy makers make measured commitments for property policy for all players in the real estate industry from first home buyers to investors. 
In May just prior to the 2019 election, house sales were the lowest in two decades across Australia which was largely attributed to election commitments from the Federal Opposition to abolish negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT) in their current form. 
Given the major role investors played and continue to play in providing housing over the pandemic, it is critical that in the run in to the election that policies from all sides of politics work for all players in real estate. 
Overall, the real estate industry looks forward to a positive year for the Australian property market with the promise of an Australian Covid-19 vaccination program allowing life to resume to a new normal. 
For customers, whatever your objective is for this year, whether you’re downsizing, investing or making a lifestyle move – talk to your local agent about your options for 2021.

Adrian Kelly is the president of the REIA.

 
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Overall, the real estate industry looks forward to a positive year for the Australian property market

Joel Robinson

2021 should see further house price increases: REIA president Adrian Kelly

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Australia has recorded a ten-year high for first homes buyers in the last quarter, according to the latest REIA’s "The Housing Affordability Report (HAR)”.
The report revealed a ten-year high for first home ownership and an overall improvement in housing affordability across Australia.
A combination of factors meant that housing affordability has faced a bright spot for those who entered the market during the September 2020 quarter.
Market entry has experienced its largest year on year increase since 2009 and largest quarterly increase since 2010.
With a September quarter increase of 36.1%, first home buyers now make up 40.8% of the owner-occupied dwelling market. This is particularly good news given the large challenges faced by tenants at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The average loan size to first home buyers decreased to $406,223, a decrease of 5.4% over the quarter, but an increase of 0.8% over the past 12 months.
Mr Kelly said that first home buyers are responding to the stable market and historically low interest rates.
Banks could do more to further improve affordability by passing on in full interest cuts and help even more Australian’s buy homes.
HAR shows us that Australian families experienced a small income increase of 0.5 % while the average loan repayment decreased by 2.5 %.
For homeowners, affordability improved with income to loan repayments decreasing 1.1 percentage points to 33.9% over the quarter.
For renters, affordability declined in the September quarter and over the past year with the proportion of income required to meet rent payments increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 23.7%. This is mainly attributed to the increase in rents in a number of capital cities.
The next HAR will be released on 3 March 2021 showing the full impact of CV-19 on housing affordability for 2020.
ADRIAN KELLY is the REIA President 
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First home buyer's dominate the market: REIA's Adrian Kelly

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<div>The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) has fronted a Senate Economics Committee to give evidence on the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Fees Imposition Amendment Bill 2020. </div>
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<div>REIA President Adrian Kelly has said that fees should be structured to reflect the cost of undertaking the assessment and administration by the Australian Government, instead of imposing unnecessary impediments on foreign investors in the residential property market.</div>
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<div>“Foreign investment in the residential property market is the lowest it has been since 2015 – 2016,” he told the committee.</div>
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<div>“We understand from our agents working in this area the cumulative impact of Commonwealth and State government fees has contributed to decreased demand from foreign investors.</div>
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<div>“It has been our proposal to Treasury, and now this Committee, that fees should be equitable and simply reflect the cost of assessment and processing by FIRB.”</div>
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<div>The Property Council of Australia has also condemned the new proposed fee amounts, that are not set out in the legislation but by way of FIRB fee regulations.</div>
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It noted the cost of applying for FIRB approval for the average developed commercial property transaction under this draft fee regime is set to increase from $26,700 to $66,000 – an increase of almost 2.5 times. For investments valued at just below $1b, the proposed fee increase would be more than nine times the current level.
"These very large cost increases for investment in commercial real estate – a very vanilla investment class from a security perspective – is not justifiable by any policy basis," the PCA advised.
"These proposed increases go far beyond administrative cost recovery and would put Australia at a material investment disadvantage to other countries," it noted.
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<div>The Treasury claimed updates to the fee framework will ensure that the cost of administering the foreign investment review framework is borne by foreign investors, as well as making the fee framework simpler and fairer.</div>
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<div>"While some investors will pay more, they will be the investors proposing to undertake the highest value investments," Treasury advised.</div>
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<div>"The reforms ensure that more of the costs of administering the framework are borne by larger investors and investors that currently pay a disproportionately smaller fee for their investment.</div>
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<div>"In general, fees represent a small proportion of the costs associated with an investment, and this will continue to be the case.</div>
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<div>"The maximum fee for a commercial transaction over $50 million will not be higher than 0.03 per cent of the consideration. For agricultural land over $2 million, it will not be higher than 0.66 per cent."</div>
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<div>Mr Kelly said while CV-19 had attracted a welcome and wide-spread commitment from all levels of Australian governments to deregulate and be more business and investment-friendly, the REIA was concerned the fee-setting framework within the Bill did not meet these best practice policy aspirations.</div>
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<div>“This is not just across the board but for each category of fees,” he said.</div>
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<div>“That is, residential property applications should not be offsetting or subsidising the cost of administration other categories.</div>
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<div>“The proposed fee structure within the ‘Fees’ Bill this Committee is tasked to inquire on ignores all of the above.</div>
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<div>“In short, unnecessary impediments should be removed for foreign investors looking to invest in Australia’s residential property market.”</div>
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<div>“We respect all national security considerations but fees should ultimately reflect the cost of undertaking the assessment and administration.”</div>
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REIA seeks FIRB fee overall given decease in demand

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The Real Estate Market Facts quarterly report has shown an impact on prices from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has not been as dramatic as some have predicted.
“In the March edition I flagged that June quarter 2020 will reflect the impacts of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on both the sales and rental markets,” said REIA president Adrian Kelly.
“Whilst there has been an impact on prices it is relatively modest and has certainly not been the doomsday prophesies some commentators expected.
“Nor has the impact been uniform across Australia with local market conditions varying, resulting in a range of outcomes.”
This REMF edition shows in the June quarter 2020 the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities decreased by 2.2% to $770,359, with only Darwin having an increase and Adelaide remaining stable.
This is the first quarterly decrease since March 2019. For the year the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities increased by 5.9%.
The weighted average median price for other dwellings also decreased by 1.9% to $592,415 over the quarter, with only Adelaide and Hobart recording increases.
For the year the weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities increased by 4.8%.
Over the quarter, the median rent for three-bedroom houses decreased in all capital cities except for Canberra, where there was a marginal increase, and Sydney where the rent remained stable.
The decrease in median rents for 3 bedroom houses, over the quarter, was 1.6%. There is a consistent pattern for June quarter median rents to decline and the 2020 decline cannot be attributed entirely to the impact of COVID-19. Indeed the quarterly decline is below the June 2018 decline of 2.5%.
The median rent for two-bedroom other dwellings decreased in all capital cities except Darwin, which had a 1.7% increase. The largest decline was in Melbourne, and at 8.7% it's the largest decline in the past 10 years.
The weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities decreased to 3.0% during the June quarter, which shows a loosening in the market compared to last quarter.
“A factor contributing to the market stability is the decline in the number of listings for sale,” said Mr Kelly.
“In all capital cities except Perth the number of houses and other dwellings for sale declined compared to the June quarter 2019.
“The biggest declines were in Hobart where the number of houses for sale declined by 33% and the number of other dwellings by 26%.
“The market is holding up better than many expected with the Government’s initiatives of JobKeeper and JobSeeker as well as the banks loan deferrals playing their part in stabilising the situation.
“With extensions to these having been announced we expect continued stability in the market,” concluded Mr Kelly.
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Rents across most categories have seen drops across Australia with few exceptions: REIA

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The May 2020 Lending to Households and Business figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the largest monthly fall in the history of the series with the value of loans for housing falling by 11.6 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms.
The fall is not unexpected with feedback from agents during May, as restrictions on movements throughout the month were in place and a general air of caution about the economy and its impact on activity in the housing market prevailed, suggesting that this would be the case.
The fall was driven by large reductions in the value of loan commitments for housing in New South Wales and Victoria and contributed to the yearly fall of 7.3 per cent. Smaller falls were reported for all other states except ACT.
The value of new loan commitments for investor housing fell 15.6 per cent for the month and 11.9 per cent for the year - again driven by Victoria and New South Wales.
New loan commitments for owner occupier first home buyers fell by a similar proportion to the overall fall in owner occupier commitments for dwellings with a fall of 10.5 per cent by value for the month in seasonally adjusted terms but a 19.3 per cent increase for the year.
NSW and Queensland drove the fall in the number of loan commitments for owner occupier first home buyers with all other states except ACT recording falls.
While reduced transactions in the housing market stifled new loan activity in May, the markets have held up through a low level of supply. A situation that is continuing in the larger markets.
Adrian Kelly is the President of the Real Estate Institute of Australia. 
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May housing finance shows a historical fall: REIA's Adrian Kelly

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The April 2020 Lending to Households and Business figures, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, show the value of loans for housing fell by 5.0 per cent (in seasonally adjusted terms), with the decrease being driven by owner occupiers purchase of existing dwellings, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).
“The value of new loan commitments for both owner occupiers and investors displayed the largest fall in twelve months and the purchase of existing dwellings experienced the largest fall in over a decade,” said Mr Adrian Kelly, President of the REIA.
“Not surprisingly ABS reports that lending institutions have indicated that COVID-19 impacts were being seen through both reduced demand from borrowers and tighter lending criteria. What is more sobering is that ABS says COVID-19 operational impacts experienced by some lending institutions resulted in a backlog of March housing loan applications being processed in April, which moderated the April fall in loan commitments.”
The total number of owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments dropped by 3.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms but the proportion of first home buyers, as part of the total owner-occupied housing finance commitments was 36.7 per cent. 
Despite the fall in new commitments for first home buyers, the series is 20.2 per cent higher than the most recent low point in December 2018.
“Feedback from agents suggests that worse is yet to come on housing finance figures as restrictions on movements throughout May and caution about the economy impact on activity in the housing market,” concluded Mr Kelly.
 
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Value of loans fell by 12 month high: REIA

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The March 2020 Lending to Households and Business figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the value of loans for housing continued to increase, albeit at a slower rate, with the increase being driven by owner occupiers, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA).
Overall the figures for March 2020 show, in seasonally adjusted terms, that the value of owner-occupied finance commitments, excluding refinancing, increased by 0.2 per cent for the month and 17.5 per cent for the past year,” said Adrian Kelly, president of the REIA. 
Whilst the value of new loan commitments for owner occupier housing has grown in ten of the last twelve months, the March loan commitments reflect loan applications submitted in February, or the first half of March before restrictions were introduced across Australia in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The number of owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments increased 1.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms for the month and 21.3 per cent for the year and can in part, at least, be attributed to the introduction of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme in January 2020. 
The number of owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments is up 24.7 per cent from the most recent low point in December 2018.
Owner occupier first home buyer loan commitments accounted for 31.8 per cent of all owner occupier commitments, excluding refinancing.
With lending institutions reporting a considerable slowdown in new loan applications from the end of March, as both restrictions on movements and caution about the economy impact on activity in the housing market, we may find the March finance figures will be a high point for some months to come.
ADRIAN KELLY is the President of the REIA
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March housing finance numbers a high tide mark: REIA's Adrian Kelly

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A message to tenants who have lost or are facing losing their job.
There is so much information swirling around out there that it is difficult to understand where to turn. We get that.
There is state and federal government assistance out there but when you have to wait on hold to Centrelink just to get your ID number, that’s frustrating. We get it.
I said last week that our industry wants to help you. That’s our role. Looking after tenants who have lost employment is nothing new to us. What is new is the scale of the problem, but we will help you get through this. 
You need to continue to pay your rent if you can afford to do so. If you don’t it creates a problem for you down the track and also creates problems for the owner of the property in which you live, many of whom have also lost their jobs and have families and children to feed. 
If you can’t afford to pay your rent, we understand. Don’t bury your head in the sand and think that the problem will go away because it won’t. TALK TO US! We will sort something out for you. We encounter this scenario all the time. 
For example…Mary rents a home and pays $250 per week in rent. Mary’s work hours have been reduced by half. Mary comes to us, tells us her story (and shows us a letter from her employer) and says that she can now only afford to pay $150 per week for the next three months. NO PROBLEM! We speak with the owner who is understanding and agrees to reduced rent payments of $150 per week for the next three months. It’s that simple. 
Another example…John and his three mates rent a share house for $400 per week. Two of John’s mates lose their jobs. John talks to the agent to seek a short-term rent reduction to $250 per week until his mates get back on their feet and the owner agrees. A simple outcome. 
In both of the above commonplace examples everybody wins. Everyone keeps a roof over their heads (which everybody needs and will get right at the moment) plus the property owner can brace themselves for lower rental income. It’s not difficult but COMMUNICATION IS KEY.
Last message to tenants. Yesterday the Prime Minister offered you a monetary lifeline. Talk to your employer and go and get it. There is your rental assistance and cash for other expenses right there. Go find it. 
TO STATE GOVERNMENTS 
I’m assuming that all state governments would prefer a soft landing at the other end of this crisis than a hard one. 
The real estate industry stands ready to assist as we always have. Note the examples above. This is our forte and we are ready to do whatever we need to do to make sure that our tenants and property owners suffer as little damage as possible. 
Your governments need to step up and reach a unified position on this and that position must be to keep the cash flowing through the economy. We have all been offered a lifeline yesterday by the federal government in the form of wages assistance so that everyday Australians can continue to pay their bills including rent. 
The rent cash flow ensures that everyone wins and I unashamedly include the real estate agent in that. We need income in order to continue to employ our property managers who are at the coal face of looking after both tenants and landlords. Leaving tenants and landlords to sort out their own mess will end in utter anarchy. 
For example, what about the case of a tenant who lives in a rental property in Melbourne but the owner of that property lives in Brisbane. They have never met. How will that negotiation end up?
 TO PROPERTY OWNERS 
We know that this is a stressful time for you, particularly for those of you that just like your tenant, have also lost employment. 
We are here for you as we always have been and we will help you and your tenant get through this. We are all in this together. 
But, I have heard stories of some property owners, particularly those managing  their own properties trying to take advantage of the situation we find ourselves in. For those owners who do this, you are nothing short of greedy and pathetic. Just stop it and show some compassion.
 TO TENANT LOBBY GROUPS 
You need to understand that our industry wants the same outcome as you; to keep everybody housed and feeling secure at this time, but we all need to play our part. Simply calling for free rent for everybody just doesn’t cut it. You need to be more socially and financially responsible than that and perhaps once and for all finally understand that money doesn’t grow on trees. 
Tenants who are still in employment need to continue to pay the rent and you need to be supportive of this because it is the right thing to do. 
For those tenants who have lost employment or have had their hours reduced, let our industry work through those issues. You simply calling for everyone else to “suck it up” is utter nonsense given the mess that we are all in. You need to show some true leadership for all Australians because that is the only way that we will all get through this. 
TO OUR INDUSTRY 
Thank you for the leadership that you are showing during these trying times. We will get through this but there will also be casualties. 
Above all else, please continue to look after your tenants, even including those who are trying to abuse the system. Now is not the time to be petty. We all need to step up and get on with it.
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A message to tenants from REIA President Adrian Kelly

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The decline in property prices continued in the June quarter and will most likely mark the bottom of the cycle, according to the latest research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia. 
REIA president Adrian Kelly said REIA Real Estate Market Facts for the June 2019 quarter show weighted average median prices decreased by 1.0 per cent for houses and by 0.6 per cent for other dwellings.  
“This is a continuing decline since June 2018 for both houses and other dwellings, but the decline is slowing,” Kelly said.   “The weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities decreased to $720,041 over the quarter, with prices decreasing in all capital cities except for Canberra and Hobart.  “The weighted average median price for other dwellings decreased to $565,753 over the quarter, with prices decreasing in all capital cities except for Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin.”  Kelly said whilst the total number of new finance commitments for the quarter were down 15.1 per cent over last year, including first home buyers down 7.6 per cent it needs to be remembered that the Federal election was held in the middle of the quarter. “There was considerable uncertainty regarding the outcome and concern about changes to property taxation and its impact should there be a change in Government. 
“With the post election boost in confidence in the real estate market as evidenced by higher levels of enquiry, two cuts in interest rates and changes in APRA’s requirements, the June quarter will most likely mark the bottom of the cycle. “Lending figures for the month of June 2019 show, in seasonally adjusted terms, that the number of owner occupied finance commitments excluding refinancing increased by 0.4 per cent.
"The value of investment housing commitments, excluding refinancing, increased by 0.5 per cent in June with the rise driven by the first rise in New South Wales since April 2018.” 
 
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Market hit the bottom in the June quarter: REIA

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Rental affordability improved during the June 2019 quarter to the lowest proportion of income required to meet rent payments since June 2008, according to research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
REIA President Adrian Kelly said the June quarter 2019 edition of the REIA Housing Affordability Report found the proportion of income required to meet rent payments decreased to 23.8%, a fall of 1.2 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter 2018. 
Kelly said housing affordability declined marginally across the country in the June quarter 2019.
“This is due to the rise in the average loan amounts after the lower levels of the March quarter – which appears to be an annual pattern,” Kelly said.  “With the exception of Western Australia, housing affordability declined in all states and territories. Although average loan amounts increased in all states and territories between 0.2% and 6.2% only Western Australia’s family income surpassed their increase in the loan amount.” 
Kelly said the total number of loans increased over the June quarter by 6.6%.  “The number of loans to owner occupier first home buyers has recorded increases in five of the six months of 2019. However, compared to the previous twelve months there was 16,521 less new housing loans - a decrease of 15.1%.  “This upward trend in first home buyer loans is expected to continue as over the past few years there has been an increase in the final quarter of the year.”
REIA's State by State review:
<ul>
<li>New South Wales</li>
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Over the June quarter, housing affordability in New South Wales declined with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments increasing to 37.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 1.0 percentage points compared with the corresponding quarter 2018. With the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments 6.0 percentage points higher than the nation’s average, New South Wales remained the least affordable state or territory in which to buy a home. The number of loans to first home buyers increased to 6,822, an increase of 17.7% over the quarter but a decrease of 5.9% compared to the June quarter 2018.  Rental affordability improved in New South Wales over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rent payments decreasing to 28.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the June quarter and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
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<li>Victoria</li>
</ul>
Over the June quarter, housing affordability remained steady in Victoria with the proportion of family income devoted to meeting average loan repayments at 32.5%. However, when compared to the previous year, housing affordability increased, with the proportion of family income required to meeting average loan repayments decreasing 1.8 percentage points.  The number of loans to first home buyers in Victoria increased to 8,500, an increase of 18.0% over the quarter but a decrease of 5.7% compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Rental affordability in Victoria improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rent decreasing to 23.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3% over the previous year. 
<ul>
<li>Queensland</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability declined in Queensland over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 28.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
Over the June quarter, the number of loans to first home buyers in Queensland increased to 4,755, an increase of 1.6% over the quarter but a decrease of 17.8% compared to the same quarter of 2018. 
Rental affordability in Queensland improved over the quarter with the proportion of the median family income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 21.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter 2018.
<ul>
<li>South Australia</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in South Australia declined with the proportion of income required to meet monthly loan repayments increasing to 27.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Over the June quarter, the number of loans to first home buyers in South Australia increased to 1,588, an increase of 15.9% over the quarter and an increase of 10.2% compared to the June quarter 2018
Rental affordability in South Australia, improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet rent payments decreasing to 22.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points over the quarter but remaining stable compared to the June quarter 2018.  
<ul>
<li>Western Australia</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in Western Australia improved with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments decreasing to 22.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
The number of first home buyers in Western Australia increased to 3,473 in the June quarter, an increase of 4.8% over the quarter but a decrease of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same time last year.
Rental affordability in Western Australia also improved during the June quarter with the proportion of family income required to meet the median rent decreasing marginally to 16.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter but an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the year before. 
<ul>
<li>Tasmania</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in Tasmania declined over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 25.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the June quarter 2018. 
The number of first home buyers in Tasmania decreased to 430, a decrease of 9.7% over the quarter and a decrease of 6.1% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. 
Rental affordability in Tasmania also declined over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rents increasing to 29.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the June quarter 2018. 
<ul>
<li>Northern Territory</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in the Northern Territory declined with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments increasing to 20.6% in the June quarter, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 0.9 percentage points when compared to the June quarter 2018. 
The number of loans to first home buyers in the Northern Territory increased to 274, an increase of 46.5% over the June quarter and an increase of 54.8% compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Rental affordability in the Northern Territory however, improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 20.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018.
<ul>
<li>Australian Capital Territory</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in the Australian Capital Territory declined over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 20.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
The number of loans to first home buyers in the Australian Capital Territory increased to 408, an increase of 4.1% over the quarter but a decrease of 24.2% compared to the June quarter 2018.
Rental affordability in the Australian Capital Territory, improved marginally over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 18.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter but an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
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