Regional Sales

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Regional areas are out-performing their capital cities in the eastern states. 
My research for the new Summer edition of The Price Predictor Index finds that Regional NSW has more growth markets than Sydney, Regional Queensland is out-performing Brisbane and Regional Victoria has more upwardly-mobile markets than Melbourne. 
Regional NSW is now the leading market jurisdiction in Australia. It has more growth markets than anywhere else in the nation. The Newcastle region and the Central Coast are the stand-out precincts, but there are strong markets right throughout Regional NSW. 
There are some strong growth markets also in the regional areas of Victoria (led by Geelong and Ballarat) and Queensland (the Sunshine Coast and Cairns).
The significant thing about this is that it highlights the great diversity of property markets around Australia – and that while high-profile markets like Sydney are no longer pumping, there are many other places where sales and prices are strong – and others that are just starting their run.
Economists create confusion for consumers by discussing Australia as a single market. But there are major differences among the various capital cities (the performance of Canberra has been quite different to that of Sydney, while Perth has been opposite to Melbourne). 
Markets move in cycles but there is not always a single situation for a major city. As we have seen with both Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, a boom cycle often starts in the inner-city and over a period of perhaps three years ripples out from the centre. 
Part of the way through the boom phase, the city’s Middle Ring suburbs will be the most active, with the strongest price growth. Late in the cycle it will be the affordable Outer Ring locations that are strongest. 
We are currently as that point with the two biggest cities: the LGAs of Hume and Wyndham City are the leaders in Melbourne, while the Camden LGA in the far south-west is the stand-out market in Sydney. 
In terms of sales volume in Melbourne, upmarket Hawthorn peaked in late 2013/early 2014; middle market areas like Blackburn and Clayton peaked in late 2014/early 2015 while outer ring locations such as Cranbourne and Broadmeadows hit the high points in 2017.
There are not only major variations of performance within individual cities - but a single municipality within a major city can have diversified markets. 
The Price Predictor Index report shows that the Northern Beaches LGA in Sydney has one growth suburb, nine plateau suburbs (sales have levelled off below the peak), one consistency suburb and one danger suburb (serious decline in sales activity). 
The City of Sydney has one rising suburb, eight plateau ones, two consistency ones and five classified as danger markets. 
This also reinforces a central message: that local conditions dictate property markets, not national factors like interest rates or constraints imposed by regulators.
Another highlight of the report is that locations that have previously featured in the Dirty Dozen section (danger markets to avoid) are now showing up as growth markets. 
Primarily these are regional centres strongly impacted by the resources sector. Three striking examples are Dalby in Queensland, Port Hedland in Western Australia and Singleton in NSW.
These markets suffered downturns when a rise in supply coincided with the pause in the resources boom, which impacted on housing demand. Now these places are recovering. 
Singleton and Singleton Heights combined have had quarterly sales of 36, 42, 48, 43, 58, 55, 58 and 93 over the past two years, a pattern that charts the recent recovery.
Other examples of this trend include Emerald, Moranbah and Mackay in Queensland; Muswellbrook and Mudgee in NSW; and Karratha in WA. 
Despite the signs of improvement, investors should remain cautious of such markets because of their volatile and high-risk nature. But it’s worth noting that even the most devastated markets recover eventually and that a long-term view is needed when buying in such places. They’re not for the feeble-hearted.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Outer ring suburbs, the strengthening regions or previously devastated mining towns? Ryder's choice 

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With large areas of New South Wales still in an extended drought, buyers are looking for opportunities to purchase property in higher, more reliable rainfall areas, according to a report released by Herron Todd White (HTW).
The valuation firm noted that areas with average annual rainfall in excess of 1,000 millimetres are continuing to attract buyers with a number of recent sales 75 kilometres south of Walcha in the Nowendoc area.
Some key sales in the Nowendoc area include: Emu Tops (pictured above) which sold in June 2018 for $2.85 million, reflecting $3,562 per acre for the 800 acre holding; Fernleigh which sold for $3.8 million in May 2018 reflecting $2,205 per acre for the 1,723 acre holding; and The Two Mile which achieved a sale price of $9.9 million in May 2018 for the 2,910 acre holding, reflecting $3,400 per acre.
To the east of Walcha, in a 1,000 millimetre average rainfall area, the sale of Enfield North for $10.1 million in March 2018 confirms that "buyers are willing to look past the current drought to secure properties that have the added rainfall security". Enfield North is a 3,774 acre holding with an estimated carrying capacity of 1,000 cows, reflecting $2,676 per acre or $10,100 per cow area improved.
The report noted: "in the New England, demand continues for medium to large scale grazing properties."
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/3/Emu%202.jpg" alt="">
Maiden Creek (pictured above) in the Wollomombi area 60 kilometres east of Armidale sold in March 2018 for $8.85 million. This 4,510 acre holding was located in a 900 millimetre average annual rainfall area and had an estimated longer term carrying capacity of 800 cows, reflecting $1,962 per acre or $11,063 per cow area improved.
Other sales include Yonda at Guyra which sold in April 2018 for $3.97 million. This is a 1,237 acre holding located 16 kilometres from Guyra in a 900 millimetre average annual rainfall area with a reported carrying capacity of 400 cows, reflecting $3,209 per acre or $9,925 per cow area improved. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Rural NSW regions with more reliable rainfall attracting buyers: HTW

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Regional rental performance on the whole is weak, according to CoreLogic RP Data, however there were some positive signs. 
CoreLogic RP Data's Quarterly Regional Market Rental Review to September found the strongest performance by far was across regional Tasmania, where rents rose by 2% for houses.
The greatest fall in rental rates in comparison to last year was in the Northern Territory, with a decrease in house rents of 6.0%.
Over the September quarter rents for detached housing had no increase over the quarter, with rent falling in Western Australia (-2.6%), Northern Territory (-2.1%) and Victoria (-1.7%).  
Highest rental growth region for houses was in northern New South Wales, with an increase of 3.3% over the quarter to $310/week.
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