Recovery

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional area index data for SA4 regions produced by CoreLogic is showing early signs of improving housing market conditions, predominately across Sydney and Melbourne and with some level of improvement in the areas where values previously recorded comparatively large falls.
Over the three months to July 2019, national dwelling values continued to decline, falling by -0.5%, however, the monthly rate of decline has been slowing right throughout 2019 with no change in values throughout the month of July.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%203.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%204.JPG" alt="">
The improvement in market conditions was more evident across the combined capital cities, while the combined regional markets have seen the magnitude of declines trend higher throughout 2019.
The improvement in housing market conditions is largely being driven by a slowing rate of decline in values in Sydney and Melbourne throughout 2019 with increases over the past two months.
Melbourne is the only city where values increases occured over the past three months (0.1%) while a several cities recorded slower rates of decline. Dwelling values remained lower than when at their peak across all 46 capital city SA4 regions; the magnitude of declines varied greatly from city-to-city and within the individual capital cities.
While values are now lower than their peak across all SA4 regions, 13 individual regions have either recorded an increase in value or avoided declines over the past three months.
Analysis of the 13 regions where values did not fall over the past three months where in areas that have previously seen comparatively large value declines from their peak. To July 2019, Sydney dwelling values have fallen -14.7% from their peak.
Over the past three months, seven Sydney regions have avoided falls and Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury (-15.7%), Inner West (- 15.9%), North Sydney and Hornsby (-15.4%) and Sutherland (-16.7%) have each recorded larger overall falls than the Sydney benchmark.
It is a similar story for Melbourne, four SA4 regions have avoided value falls over the past three months, two of which were the Inner East and Inner South which have seen some of the largest overall declines of all Melbourne regions, down - 15.0% and -14.4% from peak respectively. Outside of regions of Sydney and Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide’s North have also recorded an increase in values over the past three months.
Only 15 of the 46 capital city SA4 regions have recorded falls in excess of 1.0% over the past three months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%201.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%202.JPG" alt="">
Several combined regional markets are not showing the same early signs of a market recovery that was visible for the capital city markets. Furthermore, some regional markets have seen significant overall declines. For the capital cities, Mandurah in Perth experienced the largest overall decline in values (-35.7%), while three regional markets have recorded larger total falls.
Of the 42 regional SA4 areas, 16 have either recorded an increase in values or no decline over the past three months which is greater than the 13 amongst the capital cities.
The reason for the declining regional values, and with little to no real signs of an improvement, is more to do with the fact that most of the larger regional markets continue to record value falls.
What is interesting is that some of the markets that have recorded significant value falls over recent years have actually recorded value increases over the past three months. Most of these are located in Qld: Townsville, Cairns, Central Qld and Mackay-Isaac Whitsunday while Outback SA has seen the largest value increase over the three months despite values being more than 20% below their peak.
Unlike the capital city SA4 regions, two regional markets have managed to avoid declines with values sitting at record-highs. These regions are West and North West Tas and South East SA. The more populous regional markets continued to record value falls over the past three months with areas like Townsville, Cairns, Richmond-Tweed, Toowoomba and Launceston and North East the main exceptions.
Larger regional areas such as Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Geelong, Illawarra and Bunbury have continued to see values fall. Overall early signs are emerging to suggest that the housing market has stabilized, however, this evidence is much more prevalent in capital cities than regional markets.
Within the capital cities, the research concluded that improved conditions are mainly being driven by Sydney and Melbourne and interestingly, in many instances it is those areas where values have recorded larger declines over recent years that are showing the largest improvement.
Over the coming months it will be interesting to see if the improvement continues and whether it spreads from Sydney and Melbourne to other capital cities and regional markets.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Regional markets have seen the magnitude of declines trend higher throughout 2019: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The performance of the housing market can vary dramatically from region to region, but also across the different product types and value ranges. 
Splitting the market into quartiles can provide a better understanding of which sectors are firing and which ones are lagging.
In Sydney and Melbourne its clearly the prestige end of the market that is driving the strongest capital gains, with values up 4.2% and 4.6% over the September quarter across the top quartile of the market.
This was also the sector that recorded the largest decline during the down phase, with Sydney’s top quartile properties remaining 13.6% below their previous peak while Melbourne’s top quartile properties are still 11.9% below their peak.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/4/Lawless%20dwelling%20values%201.JPG" alt="">
Brisbane is showing stronger growth conditions across the middle to lower valued properties where values are 0.8% and 0.7% higher over the quarter.
During the downturn the middle to lower priced segments of the market were also more resilient to falls than the top end.
Similarly, Adelaide is showing better resilience to falling values across the more affordable end of the market while the top quartile records the largest declines over both the quarter (down 1.2%) and cumulatively (down 3.5% since peaking). The opposite is true in Perth were the high end of the market has been a little more resilient to falling values.
While each of the broad valuation cohorts has recorded a sustained drop in values, the reduction has been less severe across Perth’s top quartile where values are down 16.5% since peaking compared with a 27.8% decline across the lower quartile.
Hobart has been one of the strongest markets over the past few years, however with affordability constraints becoming more pressing, the lower quartile properties are showing a better performance relative to more expensive properties.
The lower quartile saw a 1.4% rise in housing values over the September quarter after posting a smaller loss relative to the top quartile.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/4/Lawless%20dwelling%20values%202.JPG" alt="">
Darwin’s housing market has been doing it tough since 2014, however the September quarter has seen the lower and middle quartiles actually record a subtle increase in housing values while the upper quartile continues to record heavy loss.
All three of the broad valuation cohorts have recorded material declines in values since peaking, demonstrating the broad based declines across Darwin's housing market.
Canberra’s upper quartile housing is the only broad housing segment across the capital cities where values were at a record high at the end of the September quarter.
Values are rising across all three of the broad market segments, however it’s the top quartile where growth is strongest.
The different performances of the housing market across broad valuation groups highlights how diverse conditions can be below the surface.
Factors such as housing affordability, lending policies, market cycles and local economic and demographic conditions can have a significant baring on market activity
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic head of research
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Expensive properties are driving the market rebound: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The start of the Perth dwelling market recovery comes at an unfortunate time. In early 2020, the Perth dwelling market had four consecutive months of dwelling value increases, which is the longest stretch of capital growth since 2014.
The Perth dwelling market has a long road to recovery. By the end of April, the house market in Perth was -19.1% below its peak value at June 2014. Unit values have taken a larger hit, down -26.9% below the record high at July 2013.
Prior to COVID-19, most indicators for Western Australia were moving into an upswing. Unemployment had fallen from 6.9% to 5.2%, jobs growth was trending higher, population growth had bounced back to the highest level since 2014, housing supply was contained, and state final demand crept above the decade average.
But instead of momentum continuing from the trend seen at the start of the year, the onset of COVID-19 places it at the cusp of another downswing.
According to the 28-day rolling change in the daily hedonic index, Perth dwelling values have started to fall again. However, value falls have been mild at -0.2%. So far, Melbourne has seen the largest decline in property values in the wake of COVID-19, but even in Melbourne the change is less than 1%.
Weekly payroll data from the ABS, which provides an early preview of labour force conditions, shows job losses across WA have been slightly less severe than that across the rest of the country. The decline in payroll jobs across the state was 5.8% between the 14th of March and 2nd of May, as opposed to 7.3% Australia wide.
Perth has less exposure to industry sectors that have been heavily impacted by COVID-19, with 8.6% of the local workforce employed with the accommodation and food services and arts and recreation services sectors, compared with 9.1% nationally.
Despite heighted economic uncertainty, consumer sentiment levels have been improving. This is in line with a flattening of the curve and relaxation in social distancing policies, especially those specific to housing, new listing numbers are trending higher from their record lows.
Importantly, total listing numbers haven’t trended higher and are at the lowest level in ten years for this time of the year.
The trend towards a rise in new listings and consistently low total listings implies newly listed stock is being absorbed quickly by the market. As of late May, total listings were down 34.7% on where they were at the equivalent period in 2019.
Total listings across Perth counted in the 28 days to May 24th were just 13,962. Though this is a continued headwind to the real estate sector, it may be preserving stability in dwelling values.
What was once a drag on property could be a source of market stability
The strong link between mining and prosperity across WA created boom and bust conditions between 2011 and 2019. This extended to the property market. As mining investment declined significantly following a steel glut in China, job losses and resident departures across the state have left values in a downswing for years.
According to industry reporting, 2020 was the year mining investment would move through a trough, creating more jobs, and subsequent housing demand across WA. In fact, we were already seeing improving labour market and demographic trends through late 2019 and early 2020.
The past few weeks have seen an increasingly optimistic outlook for the mining sector because of a recovery in the Chinese economy. Some high frequency indicators such as coal consumption, traffic congestion and home sales suggest economic activity across China is at 90% of where it was pre-COVID-19.
Unlike recent tensions over trade in beef and barley, China is actually working to reduce barriers to iron ore imports, which is a major source of revenue for WA mining. The reason for rising iron ore demand is that Chinese steel producers expect a rise in government stimulus and infrastructure to spur production (which uses iron ore as an input).
This has contributed to a relatively strong rise in the value of iron ore and plans from some of Australia’s largest miners to boost production. Even without the relatively strong position of mining export commodities, work on mine sites may have been buoyed by long-term contracts and the relatively high liquidity of mining companies.
The mining sector has not been completely untouched by COVID-19. Some operations have been suspended, or capacity has been reduced in an effort to reduce the threat of infection at work sites. This is reflected in mining sector payroll job losses across WA, of 6.4% between the 14th of March and the 2nd of May.
However, mining companies remain optimistic. BHP signalled steel production over 2020 may even be slightly higher than in 2019 if a second outbreak of COVID-19 could be avoided.
Renewed vitality in the mining sector, and the subsequent boost to economic activity, is likely to provide some insulation in demand for the Perth property market. This would make the impending downturn less severe than it may otherwise have been.
Another key factor that should support housing demand across Perth is the sheer affordability of housing. At the end of April 2020, the median value of a house was recorded at just over $465,000 which was the lowest of any capital city.
The blend of affordable housing options and the expectation for more resilient economic conditions is a good recipe for Perth’s housing market to outperform.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia for CoreLogic
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The interrupted upswing in Perth: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Following times of crisis, real estate is traditionally the first to bounce back.
COVID-19 bears striking similarities to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919, when despite the media creating fear and hysteria through alarmist headlines, capital city housing prices didn’t fall at all. They boomed in 1919 and then continued to rise by more than ten per cent each year until 1921.
After the national recession (1990-91) and after the GFC (2008-09), it was the real estate market that most quickly saw a return to pre-crisis activity and values.
Why? Because everyone needs a roof over their head  - be that as an owner occupier or a tenant, a business owner or employee, an educator or student, a surgeon or a patient. Be that as a grower or manufacturer, wholesaler or retailer.
I see no indication that this crisis, this pandemic, will be any different. And look what the federal government has done in light of COVID-19? It has stepped in to look after the real estate market as an asset class. I haven’t seen any similar level of intervention in other asset classes, including the share market.
I look at the stages we have already gone through since the first suggestion of COVID-19 affecting the real estate industry some six or seven weeks ago, and what is still to come.
For some perspective, the coronavirus pandemic was confirmed to have reached Australia on January 25, 2020. The first death in this country was recorded om March 1st. On 24th March, realestate.com.au reported that ‘Every day is changing in the wake of coronavirus and it is becoming clear that the property market will not be immune.’ On 12th April, it reported ‘The coronavirus pandemic is having a catastrophic effect on Australia’s economy. While it’s still too soon to tell what damage has extended to the property market, it will unlikely come out unscathed.’
Stage 1 - Outbreak. Taking away of freedom.
Our federal and state governments introduce necessary rules and guidelines to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
Stage 2 - Acceptance
We are adapting to the new way of doing things. Businesses are adapting and pivoting, but initial acceptance turns to ‘get me out of here’ as the novelty wears off. (Staff gravitate back to the office environment, for example). Real estate transactions still occur as people still want and need to buy, sell and rent. Rules around inspections change. Auction go virtual. The real estate industry responds and the better the leadership, the more continuity is ensured and the more fluidly this this carries us through the peak crisis period. We are now starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Stage 3 - Return to ‘normal’. Almost there.
This is ahead of us. It is a re-entry into life as we knew it. It will be complex to navigate, and business leaders and employees alike have critical roles to play in restructuring and moving forward. Courage, confidence, compassion and above all, great leadership, are required.
Stage 4 - The ‘new’ normal
There is a need to re-imagine the old, to bed down new or adapted strategies, and thrive. Businesses won’t go back to what they knew before the pandemic. They will reinvent themselves to be more resilient.
The real estate industry has got this.
We are at the cusp of the positive phase but stage 3 will not be a ‘bang, bang, bang’ like stage 1. This will be more gradual – over three to six months rather than a matter of weeks.
In the medical landscape, the focus is on the flattening of the curve. In the real estate landscape, we look to the upward curve of positive indicators.
This COVID-19 pandemic is going to give us a ‘new normal’ but those trends will shape the way we live and work.
Nothing will change the need for a roof over our heads.
Share market losses and recessions are not necessarily predictors of property declines. Confidence will drive economic recovery, and real estate activity will be significant as ‘flight to safety’ sees property offering better options in comparison to other asset classes given the low interest rate environment and the fiscal policies put in place by governments in response to COVID-19. (Relief packages, stimulation packages, funding and support)
One of the most googled questions right now is: How will coronavirus affect house prices?
Some markets may experience this more than others, with a decrease in values – but not at alarmist levels. I do not believe we’ll see significant drops or forced sales across the board.
Right now, around one-third of the world’s population is living under some sort of lockdown. Only public health indicators will bring an ‘end’ to the pandemic.
Three factors determine the severity of economic downturn: the degree of isolation and social distancing expected; how long these things go on for; and monetary and fiscal policies.
Australia is in a good space. As is New Zealand.
While no sector of the economy is being spared from COVID-19 impact, real estate is Australia’s biggest industry and its greatest contributor to employment. It represents more than 13 per cent of GDP, which is why those leaders who must manage and plan the economic and policy response to this pandemic will keep their focus firmly on real estate.
Housing is Australia's single largest asset class. Residential property outperformed all other investment types, including shares, over the past 20 years.
Real estate makes the economy stable, has tangible value, provides jobs and is an income generating asset. Real estate exists to provide shelter. Real estate will be a major pillar of recovery.
And when we come out the other end, our leaders – across government, real estate and other sectors, will be even better prepared for any crisis of the future.
MICHAEL DAVOREN is the Managing Director at RE/MAX Australia
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All roads lead to real estate: RE/MAX's Michael Davoren

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GUEST OBSERVATION
As Australia begins to plot a recovery strategy from the first recession in the country in decades, the Morrison government needs to examine what has worked well in the past.
Crises require strong leadership, national cohesion and a framework for carrying out recovery efforts on a grand scale.
As such, there is a case to be made for a new Commonwealth agency to lead the recovery effort, built on the model of the Department of Post-War Reconstruction that helped Australia emerge from the turmoil of the second world war.
<h2>In December 1942, Prime Minister John Curtin established the Department of Post-War Reconstruction. Even though the war was still raging, its task was to begin planning and coordinating Australia’s transition to a peacetime economy.</h2>
The department brought together a talented group of officials, many of them from the new discipline of economics, to advise the government. Its establishment reflected the efforts to which the Commonwealth government went after the war to professionalise the Australian public service.
The department did not have a large staff. It was devised as a policy department that would coordinate the work of other agencies. The treasurer, Ben Chifley, was appointed the first minister for post-war reconstruction. H. C. “Nugget” Coombs, one of Australia’s “seven dwarfs”, named for their diminutive stature, was his first departmental secretary.
One of the major successes of the department was its contribution to the full-employment policy, a goal set by post-war governments to achieve a higher standard of living and regular employment for all Australians after the war.
To that end, the department helped establish a new employment agency, the Commonwealth Employment Service, to match workers with jobs. It also helped overhaul the social welfare system and create the pharmaceutical benefits scheme.
Full employment became a bipartisan policy goal throughout the economic “golden age” from the end of the war to the 1970s. The policy was so popular that even the smallest deviation from it, such as during the “credit squeeze” of 1960-61, almost cost the Menzies government re-election.
The Department of Post-War Reconstruction didn’t succeed in pushing through sweeping new federal powers for reconstruction in a 1944 referendum. Nonetheless, it found ingenious ways to foster Commonwealth-state cooperation, for instance, through section 96 grants (which provided federal funding to the states on terms and conditions set by the Commonwealth), and the federal funding of housing, hospitals and later universities in the states.
New Commonwealth-state bodies were also devised to support the coal and aluminium industries. The Commonwealth and NSW state Joint Coal Board, for example, completely revamped the almost moribund NSW black coal industry. A revived and mechanised NSW coal industry became internationally competitive and a significant export earner for Australia by the 1970s.
On the international front, Chifley and Coombs supported Australia’s participation in the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, which reinvented the global financial system based on fixed exchange rates with the US dollar as a reserve currency. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were also established at the time.
Chifley and Coombs supported the new international arrangements because they understood the revival of the global economy was essential for Australia’s own prosperity. As they hoped, the Bretton Woods system, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the Marshall Plan for western Europe all laid the global foundations for Australia’s domestic recovery.
<h2>How a post-pandemic agency might work</h2>
The federal government has already trialled a new policy-making agency during the COVID-19 pandemic with its “wartime” National Cabinet, which featured federal and state governments and their agencies working as one.
There are many ways a new economic recovery agency could build on the cohesion demonstrated by the National Cabinet and advise the Commonwealth government on rebuilding the economy.
Specifically, it could help replicate Curtin’s achievement in 1942 by advising on comprehensive reform of the Commonwealth-state taxation system. This process is already under way with several states calling for the substitution of land taxes for stamp duties.
A post-COVID-19 agency could also be involved in the revamping of the welfare system (post-JobKeeper/JobSeeker) to cope with the higher levels of unemployment and under-employment.
The agency could advise or coordinate a strategy for new infrastructure to create jobs, such as the building of hospitals, public housing and a transition to cleaner energy. Another possibility would be a return to independent petroleum refining, similar to Billy Hughes’s Commonwealth Oil Refineries that operated from 1919-52.
And a new agency could advise on reviving other major industries, such as tourism, the airlines, the higher education sector and even the banking system. During the Global Financial Crisis, the Rudd government had to underwrite loans to the banks and guarantee bank deposits. A major intervention may again be required.
Creating a Department of Post-War Reconstruction was considered by some to be the “boldest experiment” the country took after the war. And as a result, Australia’s post-war recovery was a remarkable success. This is what we need now – another bold experiment, in the spirit of bipartisanship.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137899/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
David Lee is an Associate Professor of History at UNSW
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What we can learn from the successes of post-war reconstruction: David Lee

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GUEST OBSERVER
What do <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/966-0320-Summary-of-Principles-for-Good-Bike-Infrastructure-070520.pdf">bike paths</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064">walk-friendly streets</a> have to do with economic recovery from a pandemic-induced <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-will-the-coronavirus-recession-compare-with-the-worst-in-australias-history-136379">recession</a>? How could removing a car parking space <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/every-study-ever-conducted-on-the-impact-converting-street-parking-into-bike-lanes-has-on-businesses">benefit a local business</a>? Instead of considering such questions, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">building roads for cars</a> is often seen as the obvious answer to “kick-start” the economy.
In this article, we explain how cycling and walking infrastructure is a better investment for recovery. Every kilometre walked or cycled has an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2008.11.001">economic</a> <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">benefit</a> by reducing traffic congestion and vehicle operating costs, improving health and the environment, and saving on infrastructure spending. It’s <a href="https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/physical-activity/publications/2008/economic-analyses-of-transport-infrastructure-and-policies-including-health-effects-related-to-cycling-and-walking-a-systematic-review">estimated</a> every dollar invested in cycling infrastructure may reap up to five dollars’ worth of benefits.
In Australia, however, walking and cycling only receive between <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/lagging-behind-the-pack-correction/">0.1%</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-are-short-changed-when-it-comes-to-transport-funding-in-australia-92574">2%</a> of transport budgets.
A sustained lack of investment is one reason only <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">5% of trips to work</a> in Australia are by foot or bicycle. Yet the majority of city journeys are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">short enough to walk or cycle</a> for most people.
With <a href="https://theconversation.com/cars-rule-as-coronavirus-shakes-up-travel-trends-in-our-cities-142175">people now shunning public transport</a>, our roads are becoming even more congested. In a win-win scenario, walk-friendly and bike-friendly <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">design</a> can improve driving conditions, because fewer vehicles clog the roads. So instead of just building roads, is now not the time also to invest in <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">proper</a> walking and cycling infrastructure?
 
Road building versus path building
Road building is typically <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">depoliticised</a> and so is widely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">seen as a legitimate way</a> to stimulate economic growth. But simply building more roads may not reduce traffic or speed up journey times in the long term.
Road building leads to more traffic through <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">induced car use</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486">car dependence</a>. If the default option for short journeys is driving, <a href="https://theconversation.com/rethinking-traffic-congestion-to-make-our-cities-more-like-the-places-we-want-them-to-be-111614">congestion ultimately gets worse</a> as the population grows.
Australians make <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyreleasedate/7DD5DC715B608612CA2581BF001F8404?OpenDocument">three-quarters</a> of all trips to work by car. Most have no passengers.
Yet more than half of car journeys in cities are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ProgramsandProjects/PlanningHealthyEnvironments/Attachments/vhtransch3.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=BD49C15BA932B97CF11275C5EE7CEA85A17176F3">shorter than 5km</a>. These trips would be <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/5-estimation-of-benefits">well suited to walking and cycling</a>. <a href="https://healthyactivebydesign.com.au/design-features/movement-networks">Safe and enticing</a> walkable streets and cycling paths are key to inducing this swap.
Australia has already committed billions of dollars to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/first-look-inside-sydney-s-3-billion-northconnex-tunnel-20200622-p554zh">road-building</a> projects as well as community infrastructure to “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&amp;ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>”. Ultimately, though, if we want less traffic, we need to invest more of this money in walkable streetscapes and safe separated bike paths.
This investment will increase walking and cycling, leading to the many benefits that flow from these behaviours. And enticing people out of their <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-get-people-out-of-cars-we-need-to-know-why-they-drive-27279">comfy cars</a> for short journeys will result in fewer trips by car.
 
What transport budgets tell us
Comparing Australian budgets to other countries’ investment in active transport modes, we’re not doing well. Budgets would have to increase at least tenfold to achieve the United Nations recommendation that <a href="https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/file/31600/download?token=jJbDKsE3">20% of the transport budget</a> be invested in “non-motorised transport”.
And many countries have moved rapidly to commit major investments to cycling and walking since COVID-19. For example, <a href="https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/06/draft-programme-for-govt.pdf">Ireland</a> recently committed <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/06/15/former-bike-shop-owner-soon-to-be-irelands-prime-minister-secures-1-million-a-day-for-5-years-boost-for-walking-and-cycling/#bd04c8a5c012">billions of euros</a> to walking and cycling infrastructure, equivalent to 20% of its transport budget.
Considering our lack of investment, it’s easy to see why Australia is car-dependent. This is despite Australia having both great <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692314001951">weather</a> and <a href="https://bicyclensw.org.au/big-country-wider-car-lanes/">wide roads</a> to accommodate increased space for cycling and walking.
An equity issue
<a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-ownership">Many</a> Australians, for reasons of disadvantage, disability or age, may not have access to a car. The typical cost of owning a car is <a href="https://www.savings.com.au/car-loans/ongoing-car-costs">A$300 per week</a>. Increasing spending on walking and cycling infrastructure will therefore improve equity by helping low-income earners and others who need inexpensive mobility.
Poor active transport infrastructure disproportionately <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">disadvantages women</a>. They cycle less than men and report a need for the safety of separated cycleways among other infrastructure.
Poor infrastructure also <a href="https://aifs.gov.au/cfca/publications/relationship-between-transport-and-disadvantage-austr">limits</a> children, older adults and people living with a disability from accessing the services they need. Many older Australians depend on public transport and on the quality of the walking environment around their homes and their most common destinations.
On average, <a href="https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/car-accident-statistics">three people a day die</a> on Australian roads. Fewer car trips would help reduce the road toll. Similarly, increased investments in separated spaces for cycling and walking, as well as lower speeds on local streets, will reduce collisions between cars and bikes, as well as pedestrian-motorist conflicts.
COVID-19 provides a unique opportunity
COVID-19 has led to a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/apr/22/bicycles-are-the-new-toilet-paper-bike-sales-boom-as-coronavirus-lockdown-residents-crave-exercise">boom</a> in bicycle sales, <a href="https://t.co/uzUch4mVEH?amp=1">reduced</a> speed limits, wider footpaths, <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/media-releases/new-pop-up-cycleways-to-help-us-get-back-to-work-and-school">pop-up</a> bicycle <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/car-parks-out-footpaths-and-cycling-lanes-in-as-city-prepares-for-post-covid-commuters-20200507-p54qrp">lanes</a>, increased walking and <a href="https://doi.org/10.32866/001c.13405">new cyclists</a>. Some of this has come about following <a href="https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/story/6736341/why-city-needs-to-be-put-on-a-road-diet/?cs=4464">calls</a> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-dBhS2mhOX6y8aH6MWYfg1J483Bz8o8j/view">for</a> “<a href="https://www.spaceforhealth.org/">Space For Health</a>”.
We should “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=301290454378292&amp;ref=watch_permalink">grow out of the COVID-19 recession</a>” by building back better through investment to sustain this increase in walking and cycling. Our call to action is therefore:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347548/original/file-20200715-27-3i49wz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="A call to action for COVID-19 Walking and Cycling Infrastructure Investment"> 
While Australia’s cities have invested in walking and cycling during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s less than some <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/02/10/prime-minister-boris-johnson-pledges-5-billion-in-new-cash-for-buses-and-bicycle-infrastructure/#8b1ff706df6f">other</a> countries have invested. For example, Paris has accelerated the installation of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">650km</a> of cycleways by removing <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/04/22/paris-to-create-650-kilometers-of-pop-up-corona-cycleways-for-post-lockdown-travel/#13d8daa654d4">72% of its on-street parking</a>. Scotland is proposing to “<a href="https://www.livingstreets.org.uk/media/5413/walk-back-better-national-walking-strategy-delivery-forum-statement.pdf">Walk Back Better</a>” from COVID-19
It is good to see investment in Australian cities increasing. But now is the time to help kick-start our COVID-19 recovery by investing more in walking and cycling, and to reap the many benefits for the Australian community.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142176/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-mclaughlin-346591">Matthew Mclaughlin</a>, PhD Candidate, School of Medicine and Public Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/trevor-shilton-306978">Trevor Shilton</a>, Adjunct Professor, School of Public Health, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873">Curtin University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cycling-and-walking-can-help-drive-australias-recovery-but-not-with-less-than-2-of-transport-budgets-142176">original article</a>.
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Cycling and walking can help drive Australia's recovery

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Gone are the days when economic policy was adjusted once each year by the government in the budget and fine-tuned once each month at meetings of the Reserve Bank board.
The coroanvirus means we haven’t had a budget in <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/2020-21-budget-announcement">more than a year</a>. What the Reserve Bank has done to interest rates means its monthly board meetings matter less.
Governor Philip Lowe reaffirmed this week that monetary policy was <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/sp-gov-2020-07-21">on hold</a> for the foreseeable future. The bank’s cash rate is as low as it can go (actually well <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/images/sp-dg-2020-06-30-graph03.gif">below</a> its 0.25% target) and the bank will only intervene in the bond market if it has to in order to keep bond rates low (which it doesn’t — the demand for even the rush of new bond issues is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-17/record-australian-government-bond-auction-coronavirus-covid-19/12158390">much bigger</a> than the supply).
It has lobbed the ball to Frydenberg’s side of the court.
The only situation in which it might be brought back into play is if the government ran into funding problems, of which there is no sign whatsoever.
Holding the racket
The treasurer’s problem is sequencing, and we will are likely to get hints on how he’ll play it in the <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/update-economic-and-fiscal-outlook">economic statement</a> to be released today.
The first challenge was to limit the damage to the economy from the initial shock near the start of the year — to stop a vicious cycle of weaker spending, plummeting investment and soaring unemployment.
These self-reinforcing crises required a circuit breaker.
The emergency stimulus provided through Jobkeeper and Jobseeker has been a great success at putting a floor under incomes and demand.
The government ensured a basic income for people whose jobs were axed or at risk, kept hundreds of thousands attached to their jobs and bolstered household incomes despite a massive loss of activity. It gets a tick.
But these emergency measures will not get the economy going again once the crisis has eased.
Some argue they will stand in the way of a recovery if they keep people ensconced on benefits or attached to firms without futures.
A tricky transition
Phase two will require genuine fiscal stimulus: not a security blanket of the kind we have had, but a direct injection of money that will spark a new wave of investment and employment.
The trick is to sequence it properly.
The announced tapering of <a href="https://theconversation.com/bowing-out-gracefully-how-theyll-wind-down-and-better-target-jobkeeper-143011">JobKeeper</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-both-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker-143109">JobSeeker</a> will cut incomes and cut jobs as firms pay people less and realign staff levels in line with lower subsidies.
The government believes it has got it right, but it is forecasting an 80% drop in JobKeeper payments between September and the end of the year. It might not be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/whatll-happen-when-the-moneys-snatched-back-our-looming-coronavirus-support-cliff-138527">cliff</a> but it is still a very steep slope that will need to be matched by a sharp recovery in economic activity.
It needs to be ready to revise the timetable as needed. Its current projections look like a best case scenario.
An unknowable stage two
The second stage will involve a good deal of spending on infrastructure. But, especially without certainty about immigration, it is hard to tell what will be needed.
The pandemic will have changed the way we work and play. It is not yet clear whether people take advantage of remote working and move out of congested cities. it is not yet clear what it will mean for digital health, digital education and digital shopping.
An even-harder stage three
The final stage will involve structural reforms; alterations to tax settings, regulations and industrial relations. Which is where it gets really hard. It will require not only sequencing but getting agreement across the political divide.
No civil society can base its economic and social structures on the mere desire for efficiency. Fairness and social justice matter just as much, and they can best be guaranteed if the measures are pulled together as a package with trade-offs that protect the values that matter to Australians.
That’ll be Frydenberg’s biggest challenge. The future doesn’t need to be rushed out this week, or in the October Budget, but in the months to come it’ll have to take shape.
 
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/warren-hogan-530397">Warren Hogan</a>, Industry Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenbergs-three-stage-economic-recovery-is-abominably-hard-to-get-right-142841">original article</a>.
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Frydenberg's three-stage economic recovery is abominably hard to get right

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GUEST OBSERVER
The announcement of stage 4 restrictions in Victoria marks a new, and depressing, stage in Australia’s response to COVID-19.<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644"></a>
The new measures will close non-essential retailers and most <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-child-care-shutdown-is-a-hard-blow-for-working-mothers-143837">child-care centres</a> across Melbourne, and impose stringent controls on industries such as meatworks and construction. The Victorian government estimates the measures will stop a further <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/victoria-coronavirus-cases-up-429-more-businesses-forced-to-shut/12517344">250,000 workers</a> from travelling to work.
The Victorian economy will probably be <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">better off</a> with this sharper, hopefully shorter lockdown than persisting with Stage 3 restrictions for many months.
The federal government has taken the sensible step of announcing pandemic leave disaster payments of $1,500 for those Victorians that need to isolate for 14 days. But it will need to do more to help Victorian businesses and households make it safely to the other side.
Victoria was already struggling before stage 4
Even before Sunday’s announcement of Stage 4 restrictions, economic activity in Melbourne was back down to similar levels to the first shutdown. Movement around the city, as measured by the number of times people used Apple Maps to get directions, was about half its February level.
By comparison, in Perth (where the virus has been effectively suppressed) drivers were out and about a little more than in February. Sydney was more or less back to normal, with a slight dip at the end of July as people curtailed their movements a little. Across all three cities public transport use remains dramatically below its normal levels, with Melbourne much further away from normal than Sydney and especially Perth.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350806/original/file-20200803-14-nshjlb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Movement in three cities.
The number of jobs in Victoria was <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/D90A6BA872BC19D7CA25854F008214D1?opendocument">7.3% lower</a> in mid-July than in mid-March, a deeper fall than any other state. In inner Melbourne, the number of jobs was down nearly 10% from mid-March levels. Eight of the ten federal electorates hardest-hit by job losses are now in Victoria. Without JobKeeper, the picture would be much worse.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/350808/original/file-20200803-16-18cxz7a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Jobs in three states.
Under the new restrictions on workplaces in Melbourne, employment in construction, manufacturing and retail will plummet. These industries employ about 900,000 Victorians between them. Not all of these people will be thrown out of work, but many will.
JobKeeper and JobSeeker are needed even more
The federal government should reconsider <a href="https://theconversation.com/bowing-out-gracefully-how-theyll-wind-down-and-better-target-jobkeeper-143011">its plans</a> to begin winding back JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments after September. JobKeeper is set to fall from A$1,500 to A$1,200 for full-time workers, and to A$750 for part-timers. And JobSeeker falls from $1,215 to $815 a fortnight.
These income-support programs were absolutely necessary in March when Stage 3 restrictions were imposed. They are even more necessary now, as Stage 4 restrictions put an even tighter clamp on economic activity, stretching many businesses to breaking point and throwing more Victorians out of work.
The “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-get-both-jobkeeper-and-jobseeker-143109">tapering</a>” of these support payments clearly cannot happen from late September, as currently scheduled.
By the end of September Victoria will hopefully be out of Stage 4 restrictions. But at best Melbourne will be back to Stage 3, the same level of restrictions for which the federal government to introduced the JobKeeper and the JobSeeker schemes.
The eligibility rules for JobKeeper should also be reconsidered.
Some businesses whose revenue did not fall enough to qualify for JobKeeper in March will now take a bigger hit. Other companies that qualified in March but saw a rebound in June will be excluded by the current rules from receiving JobKeeper beyond September.
The federal government COVID-19 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/federal-government-to-create-disaster-payment-coronavirus-leave/12518580">“disaster payment” </a> should help address the crucial problem of those without paid leave entitlements being forced to choose between self-isolating and going to work to pay their bills. But the scheme is palliative rather than preventative, since it only applies in states once community transmission has ramped up to disaster levels.
Two-speed economy
The diverging fortunes of Victoria and the rest of Australia gives new meaning to the term “<a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/02_Resources_boom.pdf">two-speed economy</a>”.
The federal government may be reluctant to do what’s needed just for one state, given the recovery is progressing elsewhere, but that would be a mistake. Victoria accounts for one quarter of the national economy. There is no “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/victoria-to-help-foot-the-bill-in-state-of-disaster-20200802-p55hrl">moral hazard</a>” here. No state is going to allow thousands of its citizens to catch a deadly virus on the expectation the federal government will turn on the fiscal taps.
The federal government should waste no time wrangling over who pays the costs of getting through the crisis. Trying to split the bill with Victoria will take valuable time, and only concentrate costs on the state hardest hit by the crisis.
Last week the federal government finalised arrangements to borrow A$15 billion through <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-just-sold-15-billion-of-31-year-bonds-but-what-actually-is-a-bond-143598">issuing 31-year bonds</a>. These bonds have a fixed interest rate of 1.94%, below the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target band.
 
That means investors buying the bonds were willing to lend money to the federal government and most likely get back less, in inflation-adjusted terms, three decades from now. And investors were queuing up to buy them. In fact the government could have sold <a href="https://www.aofm.gov.au/program/forthcoming-transactions/pricing-new-june-2051-treasury-bond">A$37 billion worth</a>, rather than A$15 billion.
The federal government should use this ample fiscal firepower to ensure Victorians get through this crisis. Australia’s economy won’t recover unless Victoria does too.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143840/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-cowgill-729072">Matthew Cowgill</a>, Senior Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-wont-recover-unless-victoria-does-too-the-federal-government-must-step-up-143840">original article</a>.
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