Rba/lowe/rates

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It was a great story.
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/meet-guy-debelle-and-philip-lowe-the-odd-couple-wholl-be-running-the-reserve-bank-20160916-grho4t" target="_blank">Philip Lowe</a> had taken over as Reserve Bank governor after 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth. The Australian economy was transitioning nicely away from the country’s biggest-ever mining boom. Interest rates had been cut to historic lows in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and had bottomed out. Inflation and wages growth were about to pick up. Unemployment was falling. And the new governor would preside over a return to “new normal”, with gradual rate rises up to a cash rate of 3.5-4.0%.
Then a funny thing happened on the way to the fairytale ending.
In <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2019/sp-gov-2019-02-06" target="_blank">a remarkable speech at the National Press Club on Wednesday</a>, Lowe essentially admitted that the bank might well need to take extra remedial action to get the economy moving again.
Gone was the mantra that “the next movement in interest rate will likely be up”. Rather, Lowe said:
<blockquote>
…here are scenarios where the next move in the cash rate is up, and other scenarios where it is down. Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced.
</blockquote>
Translation: “I don’t want to freak you out, but we’re probably going to have to cut rates. And do it sooner rather than later.”
Consider the two main things driving the Reserve Bank’s decision.
Inflation is stubbornly low. <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574" target="_blank">As I pointed out last week</a>, the bank has long had an inflation target of 2-3%, but it keeps undershooting it, and not just missing the centre, but missing the lower bound. In two and a half years with Lowe as governor, inflation has averaged just 1.87% – and has never been inside the target band. The latest figure is 1.8%.
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Related to that, wages growth is anaemic. For five years it has barely kept up with inflation.
This is broadly true in advanced economies around the world (although our wages are doing worse than those in the United States) and suggests the unemployment rate will need to be pushed down further than in the past in order to reignite wages pressure and hence inflation. That suggests we’ll need even lower interest rates than we’ve got in order to provide what the boffins call monetary stimulus.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257672/original/file-20190207-174867-1i44ukt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
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And the Reserve Bank’s cash rate — the rate that most other rates are set in reference to — is already the lowest on record, at just 1.5%.
Meanwhile, the housing market has taken a big hit, which isn’t over. Nationwide, the market is down 6.1% from its October 2017 peak. In Sydney and Melbourne, the falls are double that.
They are the mainly the result of a credit crunch that flowed from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s decision to wake from its multi-year slumber and tighten lending rules at about the same time the banks responded to the royal commission by impersonating frightened turtles.
Sinking property prices sink spending
Sliding property prices shrink household spending, which makes up roughly 60% of economic activity.
On Tuesday, in the statement it released after its first board meeting for the year, the bank obliquely signalled that it had cut its GDP growth forecasts, mentioning forecasts of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-01" target="_blank">3% this year and less in 2020</a> instead of the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-31" target="_blank">3.5% this year and less in 2020</a> it had mentioned after its December meeting.
Add in the global headwinds from the US-China trade tensions and the fallout from the bungled Brexit, and it’s hard to find much that’s encouraging about the Australian economy in the year ahead.
Lowe didn’t want to state explicitly that he might have to cut rates between now and the election (and if necessary during the campaign itself), but he didn’t need to. He has been as clear as governors get.
Rates could be cut on budget day
A decent bet is the bank will cut 25 points on the first Tuesday in May, after the release of the updated (and possibly weak) inflation data on April 24.
Another possible date is the first Tuesday in April, April 2, after the March release of the December quarter economic growth figures, especially if economic growth turns negative. Coincidentally, April 2 is the day the government has set aside for the early budget, so it can hold the election in May.
If it does there will be some who will try to spin it as good news. In 2007 John Howard campaigned under the slogan that rates would be “lower under the Coalition”.
Don’t think it couldn’t happen
His treasurer Peter Costello was under the impression the bank wouldn’t dare move rate during the campaign, unwisely telling broadcaster Jon Faine it would <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/costello-quiet-on-offair-rates-comments-20071107-18kq" target="_blank">keep them put</a>.
“He looked me in the eye. He put his thumb down as he sat there…and he said, ‘There will not be a rate rise in November. Take it from me’,” Faine said.
Having marked out the territory, there is no doubt the bank will use it if needed. To do otherwise would be to invite questions about whether it had favoured one party or the other by holding off.
The hard truth is that we live in a <a href="http://larrysummers.com/category/secular-stagnation/" target="_blank">secular-stagnation world</a>, with too much saving chasing too few profitable investment opportunities.
Rates no longer need to be particularly high
That means that interest rates don’t need to be anything like as high as they once did to attract enough money to fund good ideas. And even if the ideas are good, it is likely they won’t need as much money as they did. Whereas once it took tens of billions of dollars to create a globally significant company (like BHP or US Steel) all it takes now is maybe $2,000 and a laptop, as with Facebook and Google.
A massive mining boom caused by the transition of China to a market economy and then a huge property bubble masked the new reality here for while.
Now it is here for all to see, the Reserve Bank governor included.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-if-needed-this-man-can-and-will-cut-rates-during-the-election-campaign-111254" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

If needed, this man can and will cut rates during the election campaign: Richard Holden

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Almost half a trillion dollars in interest-only (IO) mortgages will convert to principal and interest loans over the upcoming four years, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The Reserve Bank estimates around $120 billion in loans will convert to the more traditional principal and interest loans every year between now and 2021.
Despite the large increases in repayments when IO loans reset - officials estimate they will leap by up to 40 per cent - the Reserve Bank believes most borrowers "should be able to afford the step-up in mortgage repayments" because they have accumulated substantial prepayments.
The RBA published figures last Friday showing that around 30 per cent of all outstanding national mortgage debt will be subject to the IO reset.
Some commentators have likened ths forthcoming transition to the wave of adjustable-rate loans that triggered the 2008 US subprime crisis.
While the Reserve Bank has always downplayed the likelihood of any US-style disaster, it admitted the resets are an "area of potential concern".
It is not the first time the RBA has raised the issue as in February the Reserve Bank deputy governor Michele Bullock warned negatively geared property investors with interest-only loans posed a growing threat to Australias financial system.
Officials noted in Friday's statements that many households should be able to manage the adjustment given they are ahead with their repayments.
There are around 1.46 million outstanding interest-only mortgages.
The warning came just days after the Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe warned Australian borrowers that a likely official interest rate hike will come as a shock to some households given they haven't seen one in seven years.
The IO reset risk numbers peaked in 2014, banks encouraged property investors to supercharge their borrowing power by taking out loans in which the principle typically isn't repaid for the first five years.
The loans were then taken up by home buyers too.
Given the interest rate on IO loans has risen, the RBA noted switching was already underway voluntarily.
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But some banks also noted an increase in arrears among some borrowers switching to principal &amp; interest (P&amp;I) loans at the expiry of the IO period of their loans. 
"Partly, this was borrowers taking time to adjust to the higher required repayments (given they would then include principal) but most subsequently returned to meeting their payments in full," the bank noted 
However it was only for a small share of borrowers higher arrears.
"Borrowers voluntarily switching before the IO period expiry – to take advantage of the lower interest rate on P&amp;I loans – were meeting the higher repayments," the RBA noted.
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IO loans have been restricted by regulators in two waves of macroprudential restraints - in 2014 and 2017 - amid concerns they were stoking dangerous housing market conditions especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
The issuance of interest-only loans had fallen to around 30 per cent of borrowing by investors.
Last month to was noted brokers are writing significantly fewer interest-only loans as borrower demand plummets.
Mortgage Choice has revealed the proportion of interest-only (IO) mortgages written by its brokers fell by more than 20 per cent in the 12 months leading to February 2018.
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IO loans accounted for 12.22 per cent of all home loans written in February 2018, down by 23.73 per cent to 35.95 per cent.
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The serviceability assessments used to write IO loans incorporate a range of buffers, the RBA noted in the latest Financial Stability Review, published on Friday.
The bank suggested share of borrowers who cannot afford higher P&amp;I repayments - who might not be eligible to alleviate their situation by refinancing - was thought to be small.
"In addition, borrowers who are in this situation as a result of past poor lending practices may be eligible for remediation from lenders."
The RBA noted one important aim was to address the risks posed by the concentration of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets, which have increased in recent years to now account for more than 60 per cent of total loans.
APRA is proposing to raise the minimum amount of capital that must be used to back residential mortgages, relative to other loans.
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In addition, APRA proposes to make risk weights on mortgages more sensitive to risk. Risk weights would distinguish between P&amp;I mortgages to owner-occupiers and all other mortgages (which would require more capital), and risk weights for ADIs using the standardised approach would also be more sensitive to the outstanding LVR.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA sees potential concern as borrowers move from IO back to principal and interest over next four years

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The first meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 17 meetings.
It is the longest run of steady rates as there were 16 meetings (inclusive) between their August 2013 meeting and December 2014 where they held at 2.5 percent. There was another run of 16 meetings between July 2002 and October 2003 where rates were held at 4.75 percent.
Almost all economists predicted a hold at the first meeting of the year.
Most don't foresee any change throughout much of 2018.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic's head of research and analytics, said the hold decision was expected.
"With headline inflation remaining below the RBA’s target range of 2-3%, housing markets moving through a controlled slow down, a higher than forecast Australian dollar and household debt at record highs, the hold decision from the Reserve Bank was widely expected.
"With national dwelling values now drifting lower, the RBA can now focus more on economic trends outside of the housing market when contemplating monetary policy settings. 
According to CoreLogic’s’ hedonic indices, the heat has come out of the Australian housing market, with national dwelling values falling by 0.7% since peaking in September last year.
Falling dwelling values are the result of tighter credit conditions rather than any changes in monetary policy settings.   Despite the stable cash rate, investors have seen an average 40 basis points increase in their mortgage rates due to higher capital requirements from lenders, which has helped to slow investment demand and quell rapidly rising home values.
Interest rates won’t stay at their record lows forever.  Financial markets have fully priced a 25 basis point rise by February next year.  In the meantime, we expect housing market demand to be supported by low mortgage rates and high rates of population growth, despite the easing in capital growth rates that have been most evident in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne dwellings. 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA carries over same official cash rate into third year after February 2018 decision 

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30pm today - and rates were held again after the Cup Day meeting.
It was the odds on bet of the day.
1300HomeLoan John Kolenda said it has now been seven years since the RBA lifted its cash rate with the last increase being on the day that stops the nation in November, 2010. They have cut on Cup Day in the interim.
The banks of course <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/77607-home-loan-rate-movements-charts" target="_blank">continue to make their own moves</a>.
It noted <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/77808-november-2017-rba-governor-s-statement#.WgEp2F6gbbw.twitter" target="_blank">house markets continued to cool</a>.
The bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 15 meetings.
It is not the longest run of steady rates as there were 16 meetings (inclusive) between their August 2013 meeting and December 2014 where they held at 2.5 percent. There was another run of 16 meetings between July 2002 and October 2003 where rates were held at 4.75 percent.
The CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless noted a slowdown in housing market conditions has helped to alleviate some of the pressure to raise the cash rate. 
"The fresh round of macro-prudential policies announced in late March have resulted in tighter credit policies and premiums on mortgage rates for investors and interest only borrowers. 
"Tougher lending conditions have arguably had a similar effect as a lift in the cash rate, except the effect is more focussed on slowing investment activity across the housing sector while low interest rates continue to provide a broader and much needed economic stimulus." 
He said since the latest policy announcements from APRA at the end of March, the monthly and rolling quarterly growth rate across Australia’s hottest housing market, Sydney, has turned negative.
The annual growth rate has more than halved, from a recent peak of 17.1% over the twelve months ending May 2017 to just 7.7% over the year ending October. 
He noted housing market conditions have also slowed in Melbourne, but not as sharply as in Sydney.  
The RBA will next meet on Tuesday, 5 December 2017.
 
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Hold again: RBA November 2017 decision

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The RBA has noted that some banks had curtailed lending to some segments of the housing market, notably the Brisbane apartment market, where the supply of apartments was expected to increase significantly, raising the risks associated with oversupply. 
But the RBA acknowledged reports of settlement failures had remained isolated.
Conditions in housing markets continued to vary considerably across the country, the April minutes noted.
"The established markets in Sydney and Melbourne appeared to have strengthened further, but housing prices had continued to fall in Perth.
"The additional supply of apartments scheduled to come on stream over the subsequent couple of years in the eastern capital cities was expected to put some downward pressure on growth in apartment prices and rents, particularly in Brisbane."
It also noted vacancy rates had been increasing, particularly in Perth.
"Strong growth in the supply of new apartments was continuing to drive a wedge between price growth for apartments and detached houses in Melbourne and Brisbane."
It noted members discussed the recent actions taken by APRA and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to support prudent lending practices. 
"These actions had been focused particularly on interest-only lending, serviceability assessments and responsible lending practices. 
"APRA's guidance had included limits on the share of interest-only loans in new housing loans and a requirement that banks impose strict limits on new interest-only lending at high loan-to-valuation ratios. 
"Members recognised that the calibration of this guidance was not precise or straightforward. 
"Developments needed to be kept under review and, depending on how the system responds to the various measures, members noted that the Council of Financial Regulators would consider further measures if needed," it concluded.
 
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Rba/lowe/rates

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