Rate Cuts

Fourteen lenders have hiked their four-year fixed rates in the wake of CBA&rsquo;s controversial rate hike a month ago today.

By contrast, just 1 lender has cut its 4-year rate in this time, a sign that four-year fixed rates might not be at record lows for much longer.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said record low four-year fixed rates might not be around for much longer.

<img alt="" height="314" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rate_hikes.jpg" width="889" />

&ldquo;With the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility now in its final stretch and the next cash rate hike firming up for early 2024, if not before, the writing is on the wall for ultra-low four- and five-year fixed rate loans,&rdquo; she said.

&ldquo;So far Australia&rsquo;s second largest bank, Westpac, has kept its four-year fixed loan at a record low of 1.89 per cent, but it&rsquo;s hard to see this rate sticking around for long.&quot;

&ldquo;The idea of paying under 2 per cent interest until 2025 is an incredibly attractive proposition for many homeowners, but that doesn&rsquo;t automatically make it a good idea. Take the time to work out what type of loan suits your finances.&quot;

&ldquo;Fixed loans come with extra restrictions such as caps on extra repayments, typically no offset account and break fees if you want to get out early.&quot;

&ldquo;One option is to split your loan so it is part fixed and part variable, which typically lets you make extra repayments on the variable portion.&quot;

&ldquo;Money might be cheap now but in a few years&rsquo; time it&rsquo;s likely to be a very different story, provided the economic recovery stays on track, particularly for anyone coming off a fixed rate,&rdquo; she said.

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jordan_55689

Rates on the rise following CBA's hike last month

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ANZ has today revealed it is cutting its variable package rates for new borrowers by between 0.35% and 0.90%, bringing its package rates into line for all loan amounts.  

Canstar’s research shows the average variable package rate from the major banks is 3.43% and ANZ now offers the lowest of the major banks’ variable package rate offers for owner occupiers at 2.99% (3.42% comparison rate).

The changes for owner occupiers paying principal and interest (80% LVR) are as follows: 

<img alt="" height="231" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/anz_rate_cut.jpg" width="741">

Canstar Group Executive, Financial Services, Steve Mickenbecker says “Today’s cut from ANZ is the first cut to a variable rate by one of the big four banks since September last year, as interest rate cuts have since been focused on fixed rates.”

“The decrease from ANZ is being passed on to new borrowers by way of increasing the discount applied to its standard variable rate and will not be passed on to existing borrowers. "

“ANZ now offers the lowest package rate among the major banks and it would not be surprising to see others moving down the same path."

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“ANZ is seeking to grow its share of low risk business, with the gap between lending to borrowers with equity below 20 per cent and those with greater equity widening from 5 to 20 basis points," he concluded.
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ANZ has today revealed it is cutting its variable package rates for new borrowers by between 0.35% and 0.90%

ANZ cuts variable rates by up to 0.9%

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As of today, NAB cut various fixed, investment, interest-only and package home loans by up to 15 basis points. 

The lowest rate among the affected loans is 1.89% p.a, belonging to the Choice Package Tailored Fixed loan for two years, paying principal and interest.

Another NAB loan cut to the sub 2% mark is the Tailored Fixed loan for two years (P&amp;I), with an advertised rate of 1.99% p.a (4.20% p.a. comparison rate). 

Other rate cuts are as follows:

<ul>
<li>NAB Inv Tailored Fixed - IO in arrears 2 yrs: 10 basis point cut to 2.59% p.a (4.87% p.a. comparison rate*)</li>
	<li>NAB Inv Tailored Fixed  - P&amp;I 2yrs: 15 basis point cut to 2.39% p.a (4.75% p.a. comparison rate)</li>
	<li>NAB Choice Package Inv Tailored Fixed - IO in arrears 2 yrs: 10 basis point cut to 2.49% p.a (4.60% p.a. comparison rate*)</li>
	<li>NAB Choice Package Inv Tailored Fixed - P&amp;I 2 yrs: 15 basis point cut to 2.29% p.a (4.51% p.a. comparison rate*)</li>
</ul>
These cuts by NAB follow a plethora of recent rate cuts, many of which were made to two year fixed loans.

In recent months, fellow big four banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank had each cut at least one home loan rate to below 2% p.a - only ANZ is yet to do so. 

Recently Homestar Finance cut out the competition  offering the lowest two-year fixed interest rate in history at just 1.74% with its variable rate also the lowest at just 1.79%:

<h2>Residences where buyers could benefit from the cuts:</h2>

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=29935]

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In recent months, fellow big four banks Westpac and Commonwealth Bank had each cut at least one home loan rate to below 2% p.a with only ANZ still yet to do so

NAB drops some fixed home rates to sub 2%

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NAB has today announced cuts to fixed home loan rates with decreases of up to -0.55% for owner occupied and up to -0.15% for investment loans.

Today’s cuts position NAB’s owner occupier 3-year fixed principal and interest package rate of 1.98% (3.83% comparison rate) ahead of the other major banks’ rates for the same term.

Canstar analysis reveals that moving from the average variable rate of 3.28% to a 3-year fixed rate of 1.98% could see an owner occupier paying principal and interest on a $400,000 home loan slash their repayments by $273 each month or $9,828 over three years. However, moving to the lowest 3-year fixed rate in the market of 1.75% (comparison rate 2.22%) from NAB’s subsidiary bank, Ubank would cut repayments by $318 per month. 

<img alt="" height="502" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_rates_2021_1.jpg" width="680">

Canstar Group Executive, Financial Services, Steve Mickenbecker says the move shows NAB is competing for new business by taking advantage of low cost funding.

“Interest rates continue on their downward path for homeowners and investors. NAB’s 11 basis point cut to its three year fixed rate for homeowners means that it has undercut the rates of competitors to deliver the lowest interest rate of the major banks for this popular fixed term.”

“Low cost funding has made fixed rates the playground for the big banks and while the Reserve Bank term funding facility remains available, the great deals should stay strong. Mid-year could see a small upward adjustment when the term funding is expected to be fully allocated and expire."

“It’s a great time to be thinking about fixing a rate when you can lock in for three or four years with an interest rate below 2%. Today’s move from NAB suggests competition at the low interest rate end of the market will be with us for a little longer,” Mr Mickenbecker concluded.

<img alt="" height="502" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/nab_rates_2021_2.jpg" width="683">

<h2>Properties you may like:</h2>

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=2807]
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Today’s cuts position NAB’s owner occupier 3-year fixed principal and interest package rate of 1.98% ahead of the other major banks’ rates for the same term

NAB cuts fixed rates by up to -0.55%

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Last Wednesday we released a bulletin in which we forecast that the RBA was set to cut the overnight cash rate to 0.1%; the three year target bond rate to 0.1%; the rate on the Term Funding Facility to 0.1%; and the rate the RBA pays on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%. 
We also forecast that the Bank would commit to further purchases of Australian and semi government bonds in maturities between 5 and 10 years. 
We expected that the action would be announced at the next Board meeting on October 6. 
We now expect the move will come a month later at the Board meeting on November 3.
October 6 happened to be Budget Day so our expectation was that it would be another “Team Australia” initiative with both the fiscal and monetary authorities working together to address the economic crisis. 
The dimension of the crisis is best summarised by the official forecasts that the unemployment rate is set to rise to 10% by the end of the year and only be back to around 7% by the end of 2022. 
Admittedly, the choice of Budget Day to announce a series of further monetary stimulus steps was without precedent (the Budget is usually on the second Tuesday of the month and the RBA Board meeting is on the first Tuesday of the month). 
But the current crisis is without precedent as the blowout in the Budget deficit from $1 billion in 2028/19; to $85 billion in 2019/20; to an expected $230 billion in 2020/21 testifies. 
The timing of the key speech from Deputy Governor Debelle, from our perspective, pointed to the October timing. 
The speech indicated more concern from the RBA with respect to the outlook and emphasised that the Bank had more scope to ease policy. 
It came a week before the “black out” period for the October meeting and was the last scheduled speech before that “black out”. 
Our reading of the speech was that any policy changes were likely to come very soon. 
In fact he noted that it would be better to err on the side of doing too much rather than too little. 
As we discussed last week, the arguments for the RBA not changing policy near a Budget due to the need to assess the contents of the Budget did not stand up especially in a crisis period. 
For example, it is very unlikely that the RBA will lower its 7% forecast for the unemployment rate by end 2022 as a result of the contents of the Budget. 
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The “wait and see" argument also does not pass the “history test”. 
Since 2000 the RBA has changed the cash rate in May (a week before the Budget) on eight occasions. 
May has been the “most popular “month over the whole year for adjusting policy in those 20 years(ironically, second is November with seven changes). 
But certainly cutting the cash rate a week before the Budget announcement has a much less significant effect on the government’s capacity to sell the Budget than acting on Budget Day. 
A central bank moving on Budget Day could be interpreted by the government and the bank itself as diverting attention away from the Budget and complicating the government’s task in “selling” the Budget. 
The Governor himself, who has been such a strong proponent of fiscal policy, may also see the advantages of allowing space for the government to promote its Budget. 
So in the eyes of the authorities, there was probably a trade- off between a “Team Australia” moment and the government having the clear air to sell its Budget without any distractions from other policy makers. 
We saw the package of measures in March (widely described as a Team Australia policy approach) as boosting confidence through the impact of the combined policies. 
Central banks are influenced by and aim to influence expectations. 
For our “Team Australia” theme to have been viable we needed to see expectations and support for the concept build over the course of last week following Dr Debelle’s speech on Tuesday and our note on Wednesday. 
That has not happened. 
But the arguments for RBA providing a further policy boost to the economy are just as relevant. 
Consequently, we expect that the policy initiatives that we have outlined will now be introduced on November 3 giving the government adequate time to sell its Budget without any distractions coming from monetary policy. 
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.
This was first published <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/September/er20200928BullRBAPolicyChanges.pdf" target="_blank">on WestpacIQ</a>.
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Westpac push RBA rate cut forecast to November

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In a speech yesterday the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank gave a fairly clear hint that the Board is set to cut the cash rate and other key policy rates at its October Board meeting.
The Bank is also likely to extend its objectives for bond purchases to include general support for the Australian and semi government yield curves in the five to ten year maturity range. It is likely to leave this commitment open ended at this stage.
We have discussed these issues in previous notes but did not expect the action as soon as the next Board meeting as now seems to be the case.
The theme is likely to be, as we saw in March, a Team Australia moment where the Reserve Bank is directly supporting a bold Federal Budget.
The prospect of the RBA “sitting back” to assess the Budget, which has been seen as the “norm” in previous years is not appropriate for these unique times.
We now expect the RBA to cut the overnight cash rate to 10 basis points; to adopt a 10 basis point three year bond target; and to adjust the rate on any new drawdowns of the Term Funding Facility to 10 basis points. All these rates are currently set at 25 basis points , which the Governor has generally described as the effective lower bound for the cash rate.
The Bank is also likely to reduce the rate which the Bank pays on Exchange Settlement Account balances from 10 basis points to 1 basis point.
If the banks are only earning 1 basis point on their ESA balances there will be significant incentive to purchase bonds, even if the bond is only yielding 10 basis points, or lend to the private sector.
BILL EVANS is <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/44613/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac's chief economist</a>
 
 
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Westpac now expect RBA to cut in October: Bill Evans

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In April there were 81 cuts to variable interest rates for homeowners, and 71 for investors, a clear sign of the competition heating up, according to Canstar.com.au.
For homeowners, variable rates were cut by an average of -0.20% for those paying principal and interest and -0.30% for those paying interest only, while for investors, the average cut was -0.21% for both principal and interest and interest only.
By swapping from the average variable rate of 3.49% to the lowest variable rate in the market (2.39% with a loan to property value ratio of 80%) mortgage holders can reduce their monthly repayments by $236.
Likewise, by moving from the average 3-year fixed rate of 2.68% to the lowest rate of 2.09% borrowers can pocket an extra $122 every month.
Canstar home loan expert, Steve Mickenbecker says, “with rates as low as 2.09%, you should be looking to lower your loan costs to put more money in your pocket each month or allow you to pay off the loan faster.”
“Even the big guys have come to the party, with one of the major banks offering a 2-year fixed rate at 2.19% and all of the major banks offering 3-year fixed rates down to 2.29%."
“With restrictions in some states lifting on open houses and auctions, the record low interest rates might now encourage buyers back into the market. Buyers should be bargain hunting for the right loan, not just the right property.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

152 rate cuts across financial institutions in April: Canstar

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This week the Reserve Bank of Australia did something everyone expected and the US Federal Reserve did something almost nobody expected. Both are revealing.
At its monthly meeting Australia’s central bank cut official interest rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5%.
The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points – not at a regular meeting but “off cycle” – in response to the COVID-19 crisis, which looks likely to become a global pandemic.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s announcement of its <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/-20-06" target="_blank">decision</a> made it seem COVID-19 was the main, if not only, reason it was cutting rates.
In reality, the bank was always going to cut rates sooner rather than later. Australia’s economic growth remains sluggish on a per capita basis, wage growth is still hovering about 2%, unemployment is 5.3% and inflation has been below the 2-3% target band for Philip Lowe’s entire time as governor (since September 2016).
The US economy, by contrast, is doing better on all these measures. Unemployment is at its lowest rate in several decades. Wage growth is <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth">above</a> 3.6% on an annual basis.
That makes the US rate cut far more revealing about the Fed’s view on the economic effects of COVID-19.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee is worried. US stock markets responded to the announcement by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/stock-markets-today">dropping about 3%</a>, before recovering the next day.
One tool in the box
There is a narrative in Australian business circles, among certain commentators – and voiced by former treasurer Peter Costello – that the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts no longer do anything to spur investment and growth because rates are already so low.
Moreover, the argument goes, by cutting rates the central bank sends a negative message about the state of the Australian economy.
The hard truth is the economy is in bad shape.
Interest-rate cuts alone won’t solve the problem. But it is the tool the Reserve Bank has at its disposal. There is also good reason, as I <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-does-monetary-policy-work-any-more-126579">wrote late last year</a>, to believe the normal transmission mechanisms of monetary policy are still working.
As almost every mainstream economist has said, prior to the COVID-19 outbreak the Australian economy needed significant fiscal stimulus rather than the balanced-budget fetishism of the current Coalition government (and, to be fair, also the current Labor opposition).
We are now going to see some targeted stimulus because of COVID-19, but that won’t address the Australian economy’s pre-existing problems.
Sending a message
Curiously enough, the critique of the Reserve Bank of Australia just mentioned applies quite well to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates dramatically – and do so off-cycle.
The Fed cut its rate range from 1.5%-1.75% to 1.0%-1.25%. Doing so used up a lot of its remaining monetary policy ammunition.
And the virus crisis is not just a demand-side problem where consumers aren’t spending. It’s also a supply-side problem where businesses are unable to produce what consumers might be willing to buy. No rate cut can repair global supply chains disrupted by mass factory closures in China.
What the Fed definitely did do is send a message that the virus crisis is going to be a really big deal. That helps create its own vicious cycle of beliefs on the demand side as consumers respond to the rate cut by increasing precautionary savings and cutting back on spending.
So the Fed used some of its limited ammunition in a way unlikely to be very effective, and has freaked out markets and consumers. Oops.
A time to borrow and spend
Coming back to Australia, it will be important to unpack both the Reserve Bank’s monetary response and the federal government’s fiscal response. How much is a response to COVID-19 and how much to the underlying weakness of the Australian economy?
The real fear is that too little will be done, especially with fiscal policy, to address that underlying economic weakness.
There is some hope, now the prospect of a budget surplus has essentially evaporated, the Coalition government will be free to do what it should have been doing all along – making long-term investments in the Australian economy.
Let’s not forget the government can borrow for 10 years at 1% in nominal terms – a negative interest rate when adjusted for inflation. Debt markets will essentially pay us to borrow from them. That is a rare opportunity to make smart investments that will pay huge dividends in years to come.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132970/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australian-and-us-rate-cuts-underline-seriousness-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-132970">original article</a>.
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rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Australian and US rate cuts underline seriousness of the coronavirus crisis: Richard Holden

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac now expects that the Reserve Bank will delay its next cut in the cash rate to April with the final cut to 0.25% occurring in August.
Prior to the release of the surprisingly strong December Employment Report we had expected the cuts to be timed for February and June.
Our analysis of the December Board Minutes highlighted that, with the Board committing to review its assessment of the economy in February, it seemed likely that the Board would have been prepared to cut the cash rate by 0.25% at that meeting.
However we did note that, “The flow of economic data over the next six weeks will be critical to that decision, particularly the labour market; retail sales and confidence”. (Economic Bulletin, December 17).
Although the November retail sales report printed a strong 0.9% we were comfortable to attribute much of that out performance to the “Black Friday” effect expecting a sizeable pull back in retail sales in December, (to be released on 6th of February).
The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.8% in January to 93.4 – consistent with a down beat consumer.
However, the Employment Report was always going to be the most important data release.
Recall that in the December minutes the Board concluded that, "The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
The November report showed a tick down in the unemployment rate from 5.3% to 5.2% – Westpac expected that the December Report would see a reversion back to 5.3% but the actual report printed a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.
This fall in the unemployment rate is not unprecedented. Over the last five years there have been six occasions when the unemployment rate has fallen in back to back months by a total of 0.2% or more.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/January/er20200124BullDelayRBACashRate.pdf" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">'RBA delay cash rate' (PDF 74kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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Westpac expects RBA and USA to delay rate cuts: Bill Evans

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Westpac has made interest rate cuts of between 0.19% and 0.50% to its package fixed rate investment loans across all terms for both interest only and principal and interest repayments.
Westpac’s 0.50% interest rate cut puts its 5-year fixed rate loan for investment lending with principal and interest payments at 3.19%.
It is now the lowest rate of its kind, according to Canstar.com.au and Westpac has positioned itself in the lowest priced 10 loans in the market in all fixed investment loan categories.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/1/22/Westpac%20rate%20cuts%201.JPG" alt="">
Canstar finance expert, Steve Mickenbecker said, "you know the home loan market has become competitive when a loan from a major bank has the top rate in its category."
“The investment lending market has remained sluggish, as lending to owner occupiers has shown recovery, and Westpac is clearly working to lift its share of that market.
“While Westpac’s new rates are competitive, the comparison rates are much higher, incorporating the $395 package fee and with a higher rate attaching when the loan moves to variable interest after the fixed rate period," he said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/1/22/Westpac%20rate%20cuts%202.JPG" alt="">
"Investors will have to be on their toes at the end of the fixed rate period to assure a competitive rate, he warned.
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