Property Sales

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<p><span>For the last week of winter, the preliminary auction clearance rate was 75.4 per cent, with 2,583 auctions held across Australia’s capital cities. So far, 2,109 results have been reported to CoreLogic RP Data. </span></p>
<p><span>This week’s preliminary clearance rate is higher than last week’s result of 72.9 per cent and is likely to revise as additional results are reported. One year ago, the final auction clearance rate was also recorded at 72.9 per cent and there were 2,034 residential auctions held across the capital cities. It is expected that auction activity will continue to ramp up as we enter the spring selling season.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Capital-City.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Capital-City.jpg" alt="" width="760" height="564"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>This week, 1,024 </span><strong>Melbourne</strong><span> auctions have been reported, with a preliminary auction clearance of 77.0 per cent. This week’s result is an improvement from last week, when Melbourne recorded its lowest clearance rate since February (74.3 per cent). At the same time last year, Melbourne’s clearance rate was 73.5 per cent. In terms of the number of homes being taken to auction, this week (1,158) saw more auctions held than both last week (964) and last year (901). This week, the Inner sub-region was the busiest for auctions across Melbourne, with 253 homes going under the hammer. Preliminary results show that 68.0 per cent of the 219 reported results were successful.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="765" height="513"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>Sydney’s</strong><span> preliminary auction clearance rate was 78.1 per cent this week, increasing from 76.2 per cent last week, however for the first time this year, the clearance rate is lower than the comparable week last year (79.9 per cent). This week, 1,080 Sydney auctions were held, compared to 930 last week and a lower 810 one year ago. There were 6 Sydney sub-regions that recorded an individual clearance rate higher than the city as a whole this week. Eastern Suburbs (87.6 per cent), North Sydney and Hornsby (86.3 per cent) and the Inner West (85.1 per cent) had the highest clearance rates, followed by Blacktown (84.6 per cent), City and Inner South (82.8 per cent) and Northern Beaches (81.5 per cent).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="746" height="506"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Across </span><strong>Brisbane</strong><span> the preliminary clearance rate was 58.2 per cent this week. There have been 110 auctions reported to CoreLogic RP Data, with a total of 158 held across the city. This week’s result was higher than last week (54.5 per cent). For the </span><strong>Gold</strong><span> </span><strong>Coast</strong><span>, 44 results have been reported with a success rate of 61.3 per cent.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="741" height="500"></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>There were 100 </span><strong>Adelaide</strong><span> auctions this week, compared to 90 last week and 88 at the same time last year, showing volumes increased across the city. The cities preliminary clearance rate this week was 64.8 per cent, down from 72.7 per cent last week and 64.9 per cent one year ago.</span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/08/31/20150831-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="780" height="524"></span></p>
<p>This week’s preliminary result for <strong>Perth</strong> was 66.7 per cent, compared to 29.7 per cent last week and 48.0 per cent one year ago.</p>
<p>61.9 per cent of the reported auction results for <strong>Canberra</strong> were sold this week, down from 71.2 per cent last week and 74.3 per cent at the same time last year.</p>
<p>There were 4 <strong>Tasmanian</strong> auctions reported to CoreLogic RP Data this week, with 3 sales.</p>
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Final week of winter returns high auction volumes: Corelogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It had to happen sooner or later when we start to see real estate sales reach levels never witnessed before, which is exactly what is happening now on Sydney’s lower north shore where sale prices are running amok.</p>
<p>The saying that real estate is not an exacting science is so true when one looks closely at real estate prices where the heat is now a blow torch and property valuers are having a lot of difficulty justifying selling prices to the lenders. For example; on a recent sale we made the valuer appointed by the lender submitted his valuation 10 per cent below the purchase price.</p>
<p>These are markets we have never seen where in the past Sydney would boom as one. This time what we have seen are scattered booms, with the other areas reporting solid results with nothing out of the ordinary.</p>
<p>One million dollar markets have jumped to two million dollar markets; two million dollar markets are now three and three million dollar markets are now four million dollars and so on. I must admit the progression from slow and steady to fast and furious has caught many by surprise although for purchasers we are now in the final selling stages for 2016.</p>
<p>To the untrained eye, it seemed like just another property market run. To the trained however, it resembles a “Houston, we have a problem.” For example, clearance rates on the lower north shore are now well into the 90 per cent zone which is the highest recorded in years.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to watch how the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) responds following their last commentary on Melbourne Cup Day. “In the established housing market, conditions had eased relative to a year earlier, although there had been some signs that conditions had strengthened a little more recently. Housing price growth in Sydney and Melbourne had increased in recent months and auction clearance rates in these two cities had risen.</p>
<p>In contrast, turnover and housing credit growth had been noticeably lower than a year earlier and the value of housing loan approvals had been little changed in recent months. Conditions in the rental market had continued to soften, particularly in Perth, where population growth had been easing and the rental vacancy rate had risen.’’</p>
<p>When you look at the respective market data we are witnessing some amazing data shifts. In Mosman, CoreLogic report that the average hold period is now out to 10.5 years where 3 years ago this sat at 7.5 years, so next year we can expect to see this blow out further to 12.5 years. The percentage of stock is another fascinating statistic where over the past year the percentage of stock offered is down to an all-time low for houses at 5.5 percent where ten years ago it sat at 10.00 per cent.</p>
<p>For apartments in Mosman the average hold is getting longer and now sits at 9.8 years and the percentage of stock on the market sits at a record low of 3.4 percent. These are the property accelerants that are driving prices up as stock levels are at record lows across Sydney. Whilst it is being reported that Sydney prices have climbed another 12.1 percent over the last year some areas would be double that plus some more.</p>
<p>Last week, Sydney boasted a clearance rate of 84.2 percent, although CoreLogic reported the number of properties currently listed for sale in Sydney was 10.1 percent down from the same period last year.</p>
<p>Now this is where it gets confusing when you look at household debt which is peaking at record highs and some suggesting that this is to be expected with a record low cash rate. How could this be expected when we have never had a record low cash rate before?</p>
<p>Lending remains strong and currently sits well above inflation and wage growth. Although it must be said that our banks are now in a much stronger position, and they will need to be. During 2016, liquid assets have made up around 20 per cent of the major Australian banks total assets which is up from an average of 15 per cent prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Although it should be added that since the GFC property values have climbed to new record highs.</p>
<p>So, I am in the school of thought that the major banks will start hiking rates upwards in 2017 to start slowing down the property markets although it should be noted that those who have mortgages have been stress tested at 7.00 percent.</p>
<p>Last year, we observed a fall in interest – only loans which are now on the rise again and that is a very dangerous sign. A recent survey by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) revealed that four – in – ten interest – only borrowers had absolutely no idea when, or how, they will start to repay the principal and that 90 per cent are hoping to roll indefinitely their interest – only term.</p>
<p>Now this will have just the one ending as the banks will start rolling the clients as they should not have been approved in the first place. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) must take a long and hard look at interest – only loans as they are dangerous with a capital D!</p>
<p>In 2014 on this day there were 115 houses in Mosman on the market, this day last year 74 and today 54. For Mosman apartments they have reduced from 73 in 2014, 61 in 2015 and 42 today.</p>
<p>MOSMAN – 2088</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 74</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 57</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 54</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 71</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 49</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 42</p>
<p>CREMORNE – 2090</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 15</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 6</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 5</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 24</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 21</p>
<p>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>Number of houses on the market this week – 8</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 33</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market last week – 28</p>
<p>Number of apartments on the market this week – 27</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></p>
<p><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000.</em></p>
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Lower North Shore markets are starting to run amok

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<p>The least understood, worst reported and most unfairly treated issue in residential real estate is foreign investment.</p>
<p>The degree to which a patchwork of half-truths, empty rhetoric and outright lies has come to be accepted by almost everyone as truth is quite startling.</p>
<p>All forms of investment in real estate have become demonized amid the increasingly hysterical “debate” about housing affordability, but especially foreign investment. </p>
<p>Politicians’ handling of the affordability issue has been taken directly from the Yes Minister playbook. The iconic British comedy series has provided the scripts for federal and state politicians seeking a convenient scapegoat for the affordability issue – someone they can attack to give the appearance they care, without costing votes. </p>
<p>Overseas investors are the perfect target because they are seen as filthy rich foreign bastards, so everyone dislikes them or at least envies them, and they don’t vote in Australian elections.</p>
<p>After two long and pointless federal parliamentary inquiries into housing affordability, the Federal Government decided to blame it all on foreign investors. This provided lots of opportunities for sabre-ratting and righteous speech-making, followed by a big clampdown on foreign buyers who break the rules. </p>
<p>State Governments seized the opportunity to not only blame foreign investors for high prices but also to extract still more revenue from the property investment sector by slapping extra taxes and other imposts on the dastardly foreigners. Media, of course, has lapped it up.</p>
<p>So thoroughly have foreign buyers been demonized that a recent public opinion survey found that most people blame foreign investors for rising property prices. Even in Perth, where house prices have been falling for four years, half of respondents claim foreigners are forcing their house prices to rise. That pretty much says it all.</p>
<p>The anecdotal evidence suggests that anyone who has bid at an auction in Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, and been out-gunned by someone of Asian appearance, has gone away complaining about foreign investors. They could be third generation Australians for all they know.</p>
<p>The NSW Government, which is more to blame for poor housing affordability than any other entity or group of individuals, has seized the opportunity to exploit the unpopularity of foreign investors by slugging them with further taxes, while claiming – rather remarkably - that it won’t affect the level of foreign buying in Sydney.</p>
<p>If that’s what they believe, then what’s the point of doing it? It’s a rhetorical questions – the answer, of course, is that it’s all about revenue-raising.</p>
<p>The mounting imposts on offshore buyers will deter them and that will cause high-rise projects to be cancelled, thereby reducing supply - one of the factors needed to improve affordability.</p>
<p>The craziest thing about the whole sorry issue is that foreign investors are such a small part of the overall buying market. The research indicates that offshore buyers account for less than 10 percent of residential sales. We’re being asked to believe that this tiny minority is somehow driving prices up everywhere, overpowering the more than 90 percent of buyers who are Australians. Are we really that weak and puny?</p>
<p>It’s likely suggesting that a Japanese sevens team with two players in the bin could defeat a 15-man Wallabies outfit.</p>
<p>Yet 54 percent of South Australians think foreigners are the greatest factor in forcing up property prices, even though prices have hardly moved in Adelaide; and 56 percent of Queenslanders have the same attitude, despite the absence of boom conditions in Brisbane.</p>
<p>Of course, it all depends how the survey is framed – also well-documented in the scripts of Yes Minister. Strange that this recent survey had little to say about negative gearing, another hugely-popular scapegoat. Seven out of 10 nationwide blame foreigners.</p>
<p>It shows, once again, how opinion surveys do little more than reflect the prevailing media view. Politicians and media keep telling the public that foreign buyers are forcing up prices - so that’s what most people think. It’s not as if the average citizen goes out and conducts their own research. They just believe what they read.</p>
<p>The proof that foreign buyers are unfairly blamed is this: both federal and state governments, as well as lenders, have been clamping down on foreign investment for the past two years. New taxes and charges have made it incredibly expensive for them to buy our real estate, while those who are deemed to have done the wrong thing have been forced to sell back the properties they acquired.</p>
<p>The level of foreign investment is falling significantly. But prices have continued to rise in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Level of foreign investment is falling significantly as foreigners are demonized: Terry Ryder

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<p>Once again I’m baffled by the ongoing antics of our real estate industry in its practice of bait advertising.</p>
<p>Some of us were so hopeful that this practice would be curved: the unlawful behavior of some of the rogue-agents that work among us that is. The real estate agents (REA) that persist in misleading the general public by implementing under-quoting practices. </p>
<p><span><strong>Weekend auction:</strong></span></p>
<p>A sale of a property is advertised and marketed as a “deceased state”. A client and very good friend of mine (DG) makes contact with agent/agency and enquires about the price-guide. This event took place within a week prior to the auction. </p>
<ul>
<li>The agent replied with words to the effect: “…the home is being sold by the public trustee, the reserve has been set at $560,000. [This will be the guide] …” </li>
</ul>
<p>DG calls me and asks for my opinion on the subject property. </p>
<ul>
<li>I reply to his enquiry with words to the effect: “…if you get it for $1,400,000 it will be a steal…”. An off the cuff remark and without researching area and subject property in detail.  </li>
<li>DG, somewhat confused replies: “… but the agent should know more or less what it’s worth, shouldn’t he? … He is quoting the reserve only at $560,000 and won’t say anything beyond this…” Believing that a low reserve will pull the properties’ true vale down, as hinted by the agent.</li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately, the agent/agency can and some will, hide behind what they reason to be (safe and reasonable) instructions from their clients. In this case a reserve set at $560,000. </p>
<p>Understandably, and similar to the $1 Valentine’s Day Auction, it appears agents can hide behind vendor’s instructions, but this only puts a spot light on both their: industry-ignorance and sleight-of-hand tactics to be seen as delivering great results. </p>
<p>How much did the property sell for, on the luckiest day for the believers of Feng Shui? It sold for just over $1,800,000. A price difference of 320% over the so called reserve. </p>
<p>DG, also informed me that there where well over 100 people in attendance. Regardless of the demographic and even if the majority were developers and so called: sophisticated investors. It is time FT NSW and State Government bodies acted on these out of line property sales. </p>
<p>Furthermore, it’s time the Real Estate Industry operate in a more conscionable manner. Here are my questions to the REA.</p>
<ul>
<li>What stopped the REA from providing a more realistic price-guide, other than hiding behind a reserve price, although set by their client? </li>
</ul>
<p>Perhaps the only thing was, their need for a moment of grandeur in delivering a so called, great result. An opportunity to beat their chests in glory. </p>
<ul>
<li>When were the terms “conscionable” and “professional guidance and practice” taken out of our training manuals and regulations? </li>
</ul>
<p>Last I checked, they hadn’t but for some offices, we can say that these have been buried along with their reputation, some years ago.  </p>
<p>Friends, the property tide will turn soon enough and vendors won’t be as forgiving as what they appear to be with the results posted by auction campaigns. We will soon be speaking about “over-quoting” or “buying-the-listing” as “under-quoting” takes a back seat on a down-turn market. This, is when vendors will be the first to demand REA’s be punished for their wrongful actions. </p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>EDWIN ALMEIDA</span> is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"><br></a></em></p>
<p><em>He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.</em></p>
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ealmedia-arK4DBYLjS

Lucky for believers in Feng Shui but unlucky for industry: Edwin Almeida

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<div>Property transaction volumes are reportedly declining in Sydney, and nationally.<br><br>There are about 9.75 million residential dwellings in Australia, but despite a record construction boom stock turnover has fallen to well below 3 per cent, and way below the historical averages.<br><br>There could be any number of reasons for this.<br><br>Like a property market Jim Bergerac, I took a look through this month's housing finance data angling for clues.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Reason 1 - Staying put!</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We know that the ridiculous cost of stamp duty (and selling fees) is a discouraging factor for people wanting to move house in Sydney, the only real question is how much of a factor it actually is.<br><br>Sure, stamp has been around forever, but the bands were designed with old dwelling prices in mind, and only recently have duties become farcically high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Stamp duty receipts in New South Wales have more than doubled since June 2013 to $8.63 billion. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In June 2013 the buyer of a median priced house in Sydney paid about $27,000 in stamp duty, mortgage fees, and transfer duties. Today, they'll pay nearly $45,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That's a lot of capital growth required to justify the costs of moving house, so we'll arguably see a shift towards renovating and staying put (or buying cheap and renovating) just as we did at Sydney's previous cyclical peak in early 2004.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, that's already happened to some extent in Sydney, while renovations activity is rising steadily in Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/14/b1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/11/14/b1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>People will campaign for higher or different types of property taxes, but it's hard to see it happening in NSW while this unprecedented windfall is enriching the state government.<br><br>The state's finances are in enormous nick - debt free and racking up big surpluses!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Reason 2 - The trusty buy &amp; hold strategy</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>A structural change over the medium term has been the "asset lock in" associated with property investors, with the prevailing tax legislation more or less compelling investors to use interest only loans and play a longer term capital growth strategy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/11/14/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/11/14/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Again, investors have been around forever, of course, but since the latest round of monetary easing from 2012 this cohort has become a more substantial force in the larger capitals. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The recent reclassifications of the stock of outstanding credit from investors to owner-occupiers are all too convenient to be taken seriously.<br><br>In any case, there has still been a 300 per cent increase in outstanding investor credit since 2003. Buy, hold, and compound the capital gains.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Reason 3 - Offshore investors</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>What of the residential construction boom?<br><br>In Australia non-residents are generally restricted to the purchase of new dwellings, thereby encouraging new construction, and this is clearly working now interest rates have been dropped.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The housing finance figures show that domestic owner-occupiers accounted for only 31,500 or so financed purchases of new dwellings over the year to September 2016. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/11/14/B2.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/14/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The numbers are up in the most of the larger capital cities, but not that much in the context of a record residential construction boom.</div>
<p> <a href="/images/2016/11/14/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/11/14/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>So, who is buying the new stock? Downsizing cash buyers would account for a proportion of new dwelling sales, super funds, and investors sold new stock by 'white knight' middlemen or advisors some more. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But a huge share would be non-resident buyers, particularly now from China.<br><br>This is also a new trend - FIRB approvals have tripled in only two years!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Chinese phenomenon in Australian property in particular is a relatively recent one, so nobody can say for certain what trends will play out, but intuitively it wouldn't be a surprise if most non-resident buyers are in for the long haul.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Arguably a fair proportion of dwellings bought by non-residents don't even make it to the rental market, let alone become resales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately - unlike in <em>Bergerac</em> where the culprit was invariably either one of lovable rogue Charlie Hungerford's mates or someone related to the glamorous jewel thief - there is no singular  explanation for why transaction levels are down.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>High transaction costs represent one valid argument. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps most people wanting to move house in this cycle have already done so, and the line of willing sellers is becoming exhausted. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Other prospective vendors may fear that if they sell they might never get into the market as prices levitate away from them, for despite a thousand warnings prices are again forecast to rise strongly in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane in 2017 (and with listings down, there are fewer homes to pick from). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Certainly with so much hype around, lots of vendors may just decide that the easiest option is to do nothing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And finally, arguably a higher proportion of owners and investors are simply using real estate as a long term inflation hedge, due to rising land prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

3 reasons why property sales volumes are declining: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia has a record economic expansion, the longest expansion by a developed nation.</p>
<p>But Aussie consumers still aren’t feeling the love. While consumer sentiment lifted in September, the reading is still in the pessimistic end of the spectrum. Consumers are adjusting to the new reality of 2 per cent wage growth, rather than 4 per cent annual growth. Still, household prices are growing by just 1.4 per cent. And many goods and services are the most affordable they have ever been. But consumers are fixated on low wage growth and the rising share that bills like gas and electricity bills are taking on the household budget.  </p>
<p>In the survey period consumer spirits would also have been dampened by news of a hydrogen bomb test in North Korea and the hurricanes bearing down on southern US states. The good news is that these issues didn’t significantly spook consumers.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.55.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.55.17%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Aussies are growing cold on real estate investments. Putting money in the bank or paying down debt are still regarded the wisest places for new savings. And shares have narrowed the gap with real estate. A less frothy real estate sector would be very much embraced by the Reserve Bank.  What do the figures show?</p>
<p>The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 2.5 per cent to a 4-month high of 97.9 in September. The confidence index is down 4.4 per cent on a year ago. A reading below 100 denotes pessimism.  </p>
<p>The current conditions index rose by 3.7 per cent while the expectations index rose by 1.8 per cent.  </p>
<p>Four of the components of the index rose in September:</p>
<p>The estimate of family finances compared with a year  ago was up by 6.1 per cent;  </p>
<p>The estimate of family finances over the next year was  down by 2.1 per cent;  </p>
<p>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up  by 2.7 per cent;  </p>
<p>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up by 5.2 per cent;  </p>
<p>The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a  major household item was up by 2.1 per cent. • Housing outlook: A good time to buy a dwelling? The index was up 0.7 per cent in September after rising by 0.9 per cent in August and rising 3.1 per cent in July.</p>
<p>Wisest place for savings:</p>
<p>Contained in the Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence was a quarterly question on the wisest places for savings. Most people favoured putting new savings in the bank as the wisest place for savings (29.3 per cent of respondents). Next highest was “Pay Debt” (23.5 per cent) from Real Estate (10.5 per cent), Shares (8.9 per cent), “Don’t Know” (6.3 per cent); “Spend it” (5.7 per cent) and Superannuation (5.5 per cent).  </p>
<p>In the September quarter the reading for “Real Estate” was the lowest in 44 years of records at 10.5 per cent. What is the importance of the economic data? </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.56.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-13%20at%2011.56.26%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Westpac and the Melbourne Institute release the Index of Consumer Sentiment each month. According to Melbourne Institute: “The survey of consumer sentiment was first undertaken in 1973 and was conducted on a quarterly basis until 1976, a six-weekly basis from 1976 to 1986, and has been conducted monthly ever since.” Confident consumers may be more inclined to spend, especially on major items.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>CommSec still sees no change to interest rates in the foreseeable future. The economy is expanding, business conditions are at decade highs but inflation is well contained. And, based on today’s data, the RBA needs to keep a watch on a cooling property market. </p>
<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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Real estate sentiment at 44-year low: Craig James

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<p>Auction numbers in Sydney and Melbourne are well down ahead of this weekend with Domain's Andrew Wilson saying the drop is likely to drive intense competition amongst residential property buyers.</p>
<p>"Just over 650 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer this Saturday in Melbourne which will be well down on the 1047 conducted last weekend and also lower than the 909 listed over the same weekend last year," he said.</p>
<p>"Melbourne’s west will again be the most popular region for auctions on Saturday with 133 followed again also by the north east (98), the outer east (79), the north (72), the inner south (77), the north (72), the inner east (61), the inner city (54) the south east with (51) auctions listed this weekend.</p>
<p>"Glen Waverley, Epping and Reservoir will host the most suburban auctions this weekend each with 12 followed by St Albans (11), Thomastown (10), Craigieburn (9), and a number of suburbs with 8 auctions scheduled including Hopper Crossing, Richmond, Rowville and Brunswick West.</p>
<p>"Just over 450 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer this Saturday which will be well down on the 653 conducted last weekend and also lower than the 526 listed over the same weekend last year.</p>
<p>"Sydney’s inner west will be the most popular region for auctions again on Saturday with 70 followed by the south (56), the south west (47), the upper north shore (43), the city and east (41), the lower north (34), the Canterbury Bankstown and the northern beaches each (31), the north west (22), the north west (22), the central coast (17) and the Blue Mountains with 2 auctions listed on Saturday.</p>
<p>"Blacktown will host the most suburban auctions this weekend with 7 followed by Marrickville and Crows Nest each with 6 and a number of suburbs with 5 auctions listed including Ashfield, Beverley Hills, Carlingford, Surry Hills, Bankstown, Pyrmont, Kellyville and Leichhardt."</p>
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Sydney, Melbourne weekend auction numbers well down: Andrew Wilson

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<p>Melbourne's weekend home auction market is full steam ahead following last weekend's Labour Day holiday with more than 1200 homes slated for auction.</p>
<p>Sydney's auction numbers are still rising, according to Domain's Andrew Wilson, with sellers taking advantage of the strong local market conditions.</p>
<p>He said nearly 700 hundred auctions are scheduled in Sydney for Saturday, up from the 626 auctioned last weekend.</p>
<p>"Although Sydney's auction numbers will be higher, this weekend’s listings will be well below the 911 auctions conducted over the pre-Easter Super Saturday on the same weekend last year," he said.</p>
<p>"With continuing high levels of demand, higher numbers of auctions this weekend however be welcomed by buyers.</p>
<p>"The upper north shore will host the most number of auctions with 89 closely followed by the south with 87, the city and east 79, the inner west 76, the northern beaches 68, the south west 49, the lower north 48, the west 38, the north west 33, Canterbury Bankstown 31, the central coast 15 and the Blue Mountains with 1 auction listed for Saturday.</p>
<p>"The most popular suburb for auctions this weekend in Sydney is Wahroonga with 12 followed by Randwick with 9, Turramurra, Epping and Bexley each with 8 and a number of suburbs with 7 auctions listed including Paddington, Lane Cove North, Castle Hill and Carlingford.</p>
<p>"Although auction numbers will surge, this weekend’s listings will be well below the 1598 auctions conducted over the pre-Easter Super Saturday on the same weekend last year. With continuing high levels of demand, this weekend’s return to normal will however be welcomed by buyers.</p>
<p>"In Melbourne, over 1200 homes are scheduled to go under the hammer at the weekend which will be predictably well ahead last Saturdays holiday impacted total of just 258 auctions.</p>
<p>"The west suburban region will yet again host the most number of auctions on Saturday with 191 followed by the north east 176, the inner south 174, the inner city 170, the outer east 149, the inner east  142, the north 96 and the south east with 79 auctions listed on the weekend.</p>
<p>"The most popular suburb for auctions this weekend in Melbourne is Reservoir with 22 followed by Prahran 20, Glen Waverley 19, St Kilda 18, Kew 17 and Preston, East Bentleigh and Epping each with 15 auctions on Saturday."</p>
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