Property Risk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While property markets across Australia, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, are recovering well, the recent bushfires have had a material impact on a large number of areas and the likelihood of the reintroduction of macroprudential measures is increasing.
In addition, the implications of the fires and the coronavirus on the economy are yet to be fully determined.
RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg said unemployment, under-employment and spare capacity in the labour market also noticeably increased in January 2020 and was unlikely to substantially improve in the near future, leading to further speculation the RBA will undertake another interest rate cut before July.
“The recent bushfires will have a major short-term impact on property prices in affected areas and this will increase the risk in many regional areas given the possibility of future occurrences,” Mr Peleg said.
“This impact will depend on the actual effect of the fires as well as the normal projected demand for residential property before they occurred and their location in relation to employment hubs.
“It must also be noted that economic growth has been poor, and this is further compounded by the recent bushfires and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) although their significant impact is still to be fully determined.
“So, while the market is improving, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, material growth in asset prices and the amplified risk to the financial system increase the likelihood APRA will reintroduce macroprudential measures.”
He said improved buyer sentiment and auction clearance rates well above 70 per cent in those two cities would have a negative impact on housing affordability especially given the undersupply of family-suitable properties relative to demand driven by population increases - the biggest (recurrent) issue in the Australian property market since mid-last decade.
On the other hand, he said there was still a high level of supply of rental properties in some areas and these imbalances had ‘a very material impact’ on changes to dwelling prices of family-suitable properties versus properties unsuitable for families, particularly in high supply areas.
“Obviously, low out-of-pocket expenses for property investors are well connected with a noticeable increase in their activity. Consequently, it is expected that investor activity will further increase with a direct impact on auction clearance rates and dwelling prices,” he said.
“The recovery of the Sydney and Melbourne markets will also mitigate the risk of negative equity for properties purchased during the downturn, as dwelling prices will reach a new peak. However, properties that were settled following an off-the-plan contract with LVR of 90 per cent or more, still carry a high level of risk of negative equity. Increased levels of unemployment and under-employment increase the default risk in some markets.
“Units, particularly off-the-plan, still carry a high level of risk of significant price reductions. Areas with high unit oversupply carry a very high risk and this is still a major issue in some property markets. In addition, the reputational damage and impact of the recent construction defects of high rises increases the risk that demand for both new and existing high-rise properties will fall as their main buyers, investors, look elsewhere e.g. low-rise buildings or freestanding houses.”
STATE-BY-STATE
NSW:
Strong recovery, low interest rates and an improved job market are driving dwelling prices. However, bushfire-impacted areas carry higher risk depending on the strength of their property markets prior to the fires. The Sydney market has completely shifted from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ one. Consequently, at this stage it is likely that it will deliver double digit price increases and is likely to reach a new peak within the next six months. Housing affordability is, therefore, further deteriorating as wage growth is far lower than the expected price increases. Further, systematic undersupply of family-suitable properties is again the biggest (recurrent) issue in the Sydney property market, particularly in high-demand areas. In addition, housing finance has further improved in NSW, as expected, with increased demand from both owner-occupiers and investors. On the other hand, there is still a high level of supply of rental properties in many areas of Sydney with a noticeable impact on the demand for high-rise buildings due to the reputational damage associated with the high-profile construction defects.
Victoria:
While the labour market is deteriorating with a sharp increase in the unemployment rate in January 2020, population growth and strong sentiment continue to drive the property market. As with NSW, the property market in Melbourne is recovering well. Buyer confidence and auction clearance rates have increased significantly (77.1 per cent as at 29 February) and are well correlated with strong price increases making it a strong sellers' market. Consequently, Melbourne is one of the top two performing markets in Australia, well ahead of any others, and is likely to reach a new peak within the next six months. However, the flow-on effect is that housing affordability is highly likely to materially deteriorate given the low wage growth. This also means the undersupply of family-suitable properties will continue to be a major issue, relative to demand driven by population increases. This is exacerbated by Melbourne’s population growth which is the highest in the country at 2.1 per cent. Such population growth is a major driver for demand of dwellings. It should be noted that while investor activity is only 26.7 per cent, well below its peak, it is highly likely this will materially increase. Melbourne faces the same major imbalances, between undersupply of family-suitable properties and high level of supply of investment properties, as Sydney. The recent bushfires also had a major material impact on the demand for residential properties in Victoria's affected areas. The short-term impact on property prices will depend on the actual effect of the bushfires as well as the demand for residential property in the area before the bushfires. Repeatable events might also have a long-term effect on prices.
Queensland:
Southeast Queensland and regional areas present completely different pictures due to a two-speed economy. While buyer confidence has increased in Southeast Queensland, particularly Brisbane, regional areas carry a higher level of risk. The Queensland market greatly varies between its high and low-performing areas, and special attention should be given to the different job markets across the state, particularly since the unemployment rate has gone up from 5.7 per cent in December 2019 to 6.3 per cent in January 2020. Regional areas with a weak labour market carry a higher level of risk. The risk associated with the Queensland market should be monitored closely at the SA4 level, as deteriorating employment conditions are likely to have a significant negative impact on dwelling prices.
South Australia:
A soft labour market, with a reduction in actual employment, has meant slow growth for dwelling prices. Buyer confidence has increased, particularly in Adelaide, and this has seen an improvement in auction clearance rates and, consequently, it appears dwelling prices have reached the bottom. Popular areas continue to show evidence of recovery, particularly those with steady recent price growth rates. The labour market is a key factor in South Australia’s price growth projections and while it has improved in the past couple of years, it is still weak. The recent reduction (in January 2020) in the unemployment rate is attributed to fewer people seeking work in the state. Overall, the number of total jobs in the state has actually reduced. While serviceability measures have improved due to the RBA’s interest rate cuts, the soft labour market and the relatively high unemployment rate increases the risk of credit defaults. In addition, the demand for units among owner-occupiers in South Australia is, generally, low and some suburbs are subject to voluntary lending restrictions by the major lenders. The recent bushfires also had a major material impact on the demand for residential properties in some of South Australia's affected areas. The short-term impact on property prices will depend on the actual effect of the bushfires as well as the demand for residential property in the area before the bushfires. Repeatable events might also have a long-term effect on prices.
Western Australia:
A weak labour market and a sharp increase in the unemployment rate in January present a recurring problem for price growth. While buyer confidence has improved, particularly in Perth and housing finance has been showing signs of improvement, overall, economic activity remains well below the 10-year average and the effective unemployment is still significantly above the 10-year benchmark. Due to the weakness of the labour market, Western Australia’s annual population growth of 1 per cent is the third lowest nationally. As a result, the housing market, particularly units, has experienced continued weakness in recent years. The state government tax on overseas investors further decreases the demand for new units as investment properties. The relatively weak employment market also increases the risk of credit defaults. High-risk borrowers, combined with properties that suffer from low demand, require special attention in relation to credit provisioning.
Tasmania:
Affordability issues and a material increase in unemployment during January, with preferred alternative investments in Melbourne, have made the Apple Isle less resilient and the property market continues to experience decelerated price growth despite low supply of dwellings, low median prices, a tighter rental market and strong rental returns. A key reason for this is that the state remains less affordable than five of the states and territories (in price-to-income ratio) and the labour market is relatively weak. The attractiveness of the Melbourne market provides a preferred investment alternative in comparison to the relatively expensive properties in the popular areas of Hobart. Units carry a higher level of risk due to the relatively high number in the pipeline compared to population growth.
Northern Territory:
Continued weakness and poor population growth are having a sustained impact on dwelling prices. The poor economy continues to play a part in its subdued property market with 19.8 per cent price reductions for houses in the past five years and 35.4 per cent for units. Much of this negative capital growth in recent years is due to population issues. It was the only state/territory in Australia that experienced population loss in 2017-18. While dwelling supply in relation to population growth is low and dwellings are very affordable, the low demand for housing makes the Northern Territory a risky area especially given the low level of private investment that is significantly below the growth levels during the mining boom. Combined with a relatively large supply of units, the end of the mining boom signalled significant price reductions for units and, to a lesser extent, houses.
Australian Capital Territory:
An extremely strong job market, with only 3 per cent unemployment rate, has ensured demand for dwelling is solid. Houses in the ACT are solid performers, but new units present higher risk. The ACT market has benefited from recent developments in relation to the housing market and showed moderate price increases and a good medium to long-term outlook. The ACT has consistently delivered strong economic growth at 4 per cent which eclipses the rest of the country and provides a strong indication of its future. This is supported by healthy levels of both private capital expenditure and government expenditure.
DORON PELEG is the CEO of Riskwise
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Examining the risks and opportunities across the Australian property market: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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No-one envisaged the Sydney property boom would continue with similar gusto into 2018, which would have been its sixth year.
But the accelerated price reversal has caught many sellers by surprise after an extended period of double digit annual price growth.
Prices haven't yet fallen back by a prior year's growth, but negative equity does now loom.
This concern, along with not knowing just how much further there will be in falls, is creating uncertainty.
And property markets don't like uncertainty.
Falling prices are not the only factor hitting the feel good wealth effect. 
There are the recent sharemarket wobbles, the royal commission-induced tighter lending conditions, low wage growth, apartment oversupply fears, high household debt and the erratic political leadership.
The potential implementation of Labor Government policy hitting negative gearing incentives and hiking capital gains tax also has the markets worried as the Coalition government finally gets traction on raising the contextual consequences in a falling property market.
We are only starting to see the shocks of uncertainty in the property market.
And if it continues we will see it start being a drag on the wider economy too as fears about job security could see demand for goods fall, at least temporarily.
The RBA has modelling that found increases in uncertainty can trigger a downturn characterised by lower employment growth, weaker retail sales growth, and a fall in consumer confidence.
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, wrote in 2009 after the collapse of the US financial markets that there was “(nearly) nothing to fear but the fear itself.”
That was obvious at weekend auctions.
There's enduring purchasing interest, with extreme caution.
Some 18 contracts were issued to potential buyers during the marketing of <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-north+balgowlah-129409278" target="_blank">a North Balgowlah brick home </a>(pictured above) in a great bushland location with renovation upside.
But not one bid came at its onsite auction.
Buyers and sellers are gaining insights that real estate goes up, down and or plateaus in cycles.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph.
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Property markets don't like uncertainty

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GUEST OBSERVER
Buying a house is, arguably, one of the largest purchases you will ever make. So imagine coming home to find your dream house has disappeared into a sinkhole, and that it was easily avoidable.  
Experts are warning home buyers to conduct the recommended searches prior to purchasing a property, to ensure they aren’t putting themselves at unnecessary risk. The recent case of an Ipswich family who discovered a sinkhole on their property highlights just how important it is for home owners to conduct thorough due diligence to avoid nasty surprises once the property has settled. 
We now have better data, details and information available to buyers in more convenient ways to inform their decision making process.
There’s just no excuse for not performing these basic searches. Buyer education is essential for ensuring people know and understand the necessity of these searches; not only for peace of mind, but to avoid financial burden caused by previous undermining in an area.
Many sinkholes are caused by subsidence, which is the lowering or settling down of the land’s surface. 
Subsidence can result from natural causes, but can also occur from human activity such as underground mining, the extraction of ground water, and the settlement of fill soils.
Buyers can easily conduct a search to see if undermining has occurred on their property or potential property, which will help in the investigation phase of the property buying process.
Unfortunately, in the case of the Ipswich sinkhole, an undermining search would have revealed that undermining had occurred in the area, and would have alerted the residents to the potential risks of living on the property.
For areas with heavy traditional undermining or exploration, people should take extra care to ensure they are building on stable land.
We understand a deterrent to conducting extra searches is the associated additional costs, but undermining searches can be completed for as low as $6 in Victoria, $42 in Queensland and $75 in New South Wales – well worth the investment for peace of mind.
There are various searches that should be completed when purchasing a property as part of the due-diligence process and these depend on numerous factors. Homebuyers should always consult with a practising solicitor or licensed conveyancer when purchasing a property.
The following searches are available in each state:
·         Queensland: Undermining Search 
·         New South Wales: Mine Subsidence 
·         Victoria: Mine Subsidence Variable 
GlobalX is an authorised provider of property and business information, providing online access to information through its suite of innovative software and workflow solutions.
<div>Peter Maloney is chief executive officer, GlobalX Legal Solutions and can be contacted <a href="https://www.globalx.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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Property 101: Could you be living on a sinkhole?

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The scheduled apartment completions of Melbourne and Brisbane raises the risks of settlement failures, the Reserve Bank of Australia warned in its latest statement.
‘‘There are some concerns about the concentration of new supply in areas such as some parts of inner-city Melbourne and Brisbane,’’ the August statement on monetary policy advised.
‘‘Downward pressure on prices from large increases in supply relative to demand for apartments in some areas could increase the risk of off-the-plan purchases failing to settle.’’
The RBA’s latest comments on settlement risk come after May comments which down played the situation.
It was then that the RBA's head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, said she hadn't seen any settlement risks [issues] yet when addressing banks cutting back on their loan value ratios and taking a more conservative approach to valuing completed apartments. 
In April comments comments were made about high levels of new apartments pulling prices and rents lower.
While noting the housing market in the mining-dependent capitals, Perth and Darwin was already suffering a high vacancy rate and lower rents, the growing supply of apartments had so far had a minor effect on the eastern-state capitals, the RBA said in April.
‘‘Despite the substantial increase in supply in recent years, vacancy rates in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have only risen a little, to be around their long-run average levels,’’ it said.
‘‘That said, rent inflation in these cities has been declining, and has also been a little weaker than suggested by its historical relationship with the vacancy rate.’’
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