Property Resales

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Hobart and regional Victoria profit most, shows latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for the September 2020 quarter released today has revealed Hobart retained its position as the capital city with the highest rate of profit making resales at 96.6%, while regional Victoria was the most profitable ‘rest of state’ region with 97.5% of dwellings sold for a profit in the three months to September.

Nationally, the proportion of resales that made a profit was 88.1% or $24.8 billion in profits, up from 87.2% or $19.8 billion in the June 2020 quarter. However, the amount of losses also deepened on non-profitable sales, from -$885 million in the June quarter to -$1.2 billion in September.

The Pain and Gain analysis for the September quarter reflects the resilience seen in the property market throughout 2020.

Each of the greater capital city markets, with the exception of Melbourne, saw an increase in the rate of profit making sales over the September quarter. The highest rate of profit making sales was across Hobart, which has been the case since March 2018.

Coastal regional markets were also particularly profitable for sellers, with profit making sales representing over 95% of resales across six major coastal markets: Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast. The Sunshine Coast hit a record high rate of profit making sales in the September quarter at 96.4%.

Comparing the capital cities to regional Australia, the portion of profit-making sales increased more rapidly across the regions than capitals.

The combined regional Australian market saw the rate of profit making sales increase 150 basis points, to 89.2% in the September quarter, while the rate of profitability across capital city markets expanded 30 basis points, to 87.2%. This also reflects the divergent performance between regional and capital city real estate markets through 2020.

Houses vs Units

The report also demonstrates that there was generally a higher rate of return for houses ($225,000) than units ($125,000).

Profitability across both houses and units rose across Australia in the September 2020 quarter. The portion of properties sold at a loss among houses fell from 10.2% in the three months to June to 9.6%, while the portion of loss making unit sales fell from 21.4% to 19.6%.

The differential between house and unit profitability narrowed to 10 percentage points in the September quarter, down from 11.2 percentage points in the three months to June. The narrowed differential was a result of unit profitability rising faster than that of houses. Even though the rate of loss making sales declined faster across the unit segment, units were still about 2 times more likely to sell for a loss than houses in the September quarter.

Investors vs Owner Occupiers

A higher portion of property investors sold their dwelling at a loss during the September quarter compared with owner occupiers. Investor sales in the September quarter saw 17.1% of properties sell for a loss, compared with 10.4% of owner occupied sales.

Despite the higher rate of loss observed in investor sales in the quarter, the rate of properties re-sold at a loss was down from 18.0% in the June quarter, while the rate of loss making sales among owner occupiers was down from 11.1%.

The only region where there was a higher incidence of loss making sales among owner occupiers was across Hobart. This has been a consistent trend across the past few quarters. In the three months to September, 3.2% of owner occupied resales saw a nominal loss, compared with just 1% of investor sales.

The relatively low level of loss making sales among both cohorts reflects the exceptional capital growth across the Hobart market. CoreLogic home value indices show dwelling values across Hobart have seen annualised growth of 7.9% for the 5 years to December 2020, the highest annualised growth rate of the capital city markets.

Hold periods

Analysing returns by hold period suggests a greater amount of gain comes from more time in the market.

Over the September 2020 quarter, the median hold period of re-sale events across Australia was approximately 8.5 years. For profit making sales, the median hold period was 9 years, while loss making sales were typically held for 6.7 years. For houses and units, typical hold periods were longer across profit making resales.

The Australian housing market is expected to improve further in the coming months. With record low mortgage rates, a faster than expected economic recovery and relatively low cases of COVID-19, profitability is tipped to trend upwards over the coming quarters.

Eliza Owen is CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia
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Regional Victoria and Hobart homes profited most in Q4 2020: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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Over the June 2019 quarter, resales of Darwin properties generated $25.7 million in profits and $15.6 million in losses, according to the latest findings from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain report.
Based on these figures, Darwin generated 0.2% of national profit and 2.1% of the total value of losses.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20HOB%201.JPG" alt="">
Each region of the city has recorded a high proportion of resales at a loss with at least one in two resales over the quarter in Darwin and Palmerston at a loss, while around one in five resales were at a loss in Litchfield.
The share of units resold at a loss recorded a steady rise over the quarter while there was a slight drop in the share of houses resold at a loss.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20HOB%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20HOB%202.JPG" alt="">
The Pain &amp; Gain report also examined other Australian capital cities like <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/wa/105823-quarter-of-loss-making-property-resales-occured-in-perthcorelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">Perth</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/tas/105825-hobart-property-resale-losses-remain-low-despite-market-slowdown-corelogiccorelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">Hobart</a>, as well as trends such as <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/105834-investors-more-likely-than-owner-occupiers-to-resell-property-at-a-loss-oct-29-investors-more-likely-than-owner-occupiers-to-resell-property-at-a-loss-corelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">investors being more likely to resell property at a loss than owner occupiers</a>.
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50% of Darwin resales made a loss: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

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Hobart resales of properties over the June 2019 quarter generated $185.0 million in profits and $1.6 million in losses, according to the latest findings from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain report.
Based on these figures, Hobart accounted for 1.1% of profits nationally over the quarter and 0.2% of losses.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20HOB%201.JPG" alt="">
Sorell had no resales at a loss over the quarter and Glenorchy and Hobart had less than 2% of resales at a loss.
Brighton was the only region of Hobart in which more than 5% of resales were at a loss over the quarter.
Values in Hobart are increasing at a much slower pace relative to recent years.
CoreLogic said it would expect the share of resales at a loss will be fairly steady over the coming quarters.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20HOB%202.JPG" alt="">
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Hobart property resale losses remain low despite market slowdown: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

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Over the June 2019 quarter, resales of Darwin properties generated $25.7 million in profits and $15.6 million in losses, according to the latest findings from CoreLogic's Pain &amp; Gain report.
The market also recorded $269.5 million in realised profits which accounted for 1.6% of profits nationally.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20DAR%201.JPG" alt="">
Over the quarter, the share of houses resold at a loss increased while the share of unit resales at a loss rose. 
Click to<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20CAN%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20CAN%202.JPG" target="_blank"></a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/29/Resales%20CAN%202.JPG">
The Pain &amp; Gain report also examined other Australian capital cities like <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/wa/105823-quarter-of-loss-making-property-resales-occured-in-perthcorelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">Perth</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/tas/105825-hobart-property-resale-losses-remain-low-despite-market-slowdown-corelogiccorelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">Hobart</a>, as well as trends such as <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/105834-investors-more-likely-than-owner-occupiers-to-resell-property-at-a-loss-oct-29-investors-more-likely-than-owner-occupiers-to-resell-property-at-a-loss-corelogic-pain-gain-report" target="_blank">investors being more likely to resell property at a loss than owner occupiers</a>.
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Canberra resales at a loss on the rise: CoreLogic Pain & Gain Report

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More than a third of total stock on Melbourne and Geelong’s land market are resale lots, potentially troubling, some of which were bought by speculators now attempting to quickly on-sell, according to RPM Real Estate Group’s Q4 Residential Market Review. 
Their report found the secondary land market in Melbourne’s growth corridors is now hitting a peak, with 2,415 lots – or 39% - of total stock on the market comprising resale lots.
RPM’s head of Communities, Luke Kelly said just over half of these resale lots – 53% – have since settled, which suggests the majority of resales are genuine investors or even owner occupiers who are now unable to obtain finance to complete construction on their settled lot due to tighter lending criteria or a change in circumstances.
"It’s possible we’ll see some price reductions on resale lots as settlement approaches.
"However, realistically, people are reducing their profit margin to still make a profit but avoid losing their deposit – a $30,000 profit is better than a $10,000 loss."
Through data gathered from realestate.com RPM surmised, that of the total resale lots, 42% were located in the Western growth corridor, 34% in the Northern corridor, 18% in the South Eastern corridor and 6% in Geelong and the Surf Coast.
Kelly said while the conventional view is that resale stock undercuts retail lots, there is more to the story.
'The data (actually) reveals retail stock is cheaper than resale stock, given developers are producing smaller lots throughout their estates at more affordable price points," said Kelly.
The report found the downturn in the land market sharpened during the December quarter, with sales declining 42% from the previous quarter and 58% from the same quarter a year earlier.
However, the median lot price steadied, increasing 1.1% to $325,000 from the September quarter and 7.5% from December 2017. 
Kelly said while the overall residential market will take time to recover throughout 2019, some sub-markets, such as vacant land, will likely recover more quickly as first home buyers come back in larger numbers and access to credit improves.
“We should start to see higher levels of activity towards the second half of the year after the Federal election once there is more certainty around proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax and the market adjusts to changed lending parameters,” he added. 
RPM found:
<ul>
<li>The key driver underscoring the slowdown in the apartment and townhouse market continues to be regulatory-driven credit restrictions for both investors and owner occupiers, which, together with falling prices, has adversely impacted purchaser financing to complete off-the-plan acquisitions.</li>
<li>After showing robust activity in the face of significant headwinds, total other dwellings have finally succumbed to current market conditions. Other dwelling approvals (apartments and townhouses) over December quarter 2018 were down 7.6% to record 5,831 approvals from the previous quarter – the lowest level since June quarter 2017.</li>
<li>More stark was the comparison to the same period a year ago which reveals a 55% fall in approvals.</li>
<li>Despite townhouse approvals picking up 5.6% over the December quarter from the previous quarter, approvals in apartments fell 19.3%.</li>
<li>Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, townhouse approvals fell 15.8% and apartments plunged 71.2%.</li>
</ul>
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Troubling resales 39% of Melbourne and Geelong’s land market stock: RPM Real Estate

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The latest CoreLogic Pain &amp; Gain June 2017 quarter report showed that 89.8% of dwellings which resold over the period did so for more than their purchase price. 
Capital city &amp; regional snapshot
Sydney
1.9% of houses and 1.6% of units resold for less than the previous purchase price.  Each of the Ashfield, Camden, Hunters Hill and Mosman council regions recorded all of their resales at a price above the previous purchase price.  The lowest proportions of profit-making resales over the quarter were recorded in: Rockdale (95.4%), Bankstown (95.8%) and Strathfield (96.4%) however, each of these regions still recorded more than 95% of resales at a profit.  
Melbourne
Melbourne recorded 1.1% of houses and 9.6% of units reselling at a loss over the June 2017 quarter.    The gap between losses for houses and units remains wide but both property types have seen a reduction in loss-making resales over the quarter.  The Mitchell and Murrindindi council areas recorded all resales over the quarter at a profit. The council regions with the fewest resales at a profit over the quarter were: Melbourne (74.8%), Stonnington (88.2%) and Moonee Valley (90.3%). 
Greater Brisbane
Greater Brisbane: 4.1% of houses resold in the June 2017 quarter transacted below their previous purchase price compared to 25.8% of units.  The gap between losses on houses and units has continued to widen over the quarter.  Across the broader South-East Queensland region, the instances of resales at a profit were greatest in: Redland (94.6%), Logan (93.0%) and Sunshine Coast (92.8%).  The instances of resales at a profit were lowest in: Lockyer Valley (78.9%), Scenic Rim (88.0%) and Ipswich (88.6%).  
Adelaide 
7.5% of houses and 12.4% of units resold over the June 2017 quarter, transacted below their previous purchase price.  The proportion of loss-making resales was steady over the quarter for units but rose for houses.  Every property resold in Walkerville over the quarter did so at a profit with Norwood Payneham St Peters (97.3%) and Mitcham (96.3%) also seeing a high proportion of resales at a profit.  The regions with the fewest profit-making resales were: Playford (77.3%), Gawler (85.1%) and Salisbury (86.9%).  
Perth
Perth continued to trend higher over the June 2017 quarter.  Over the quarter, 24.2% of houses and 37.8% of units resold for less than the previous purchase price. Across the council regions, the areas with the highest proportion of profit-making resales were: Cottesloe (89.5%), Canning (84.1%) and Melville (83.2%).  The regions with the lowest proportion of profit-making resales were: Perth (44.0%), Peppermint Grove (50.0%) and Murray (57.1%).  
Hobart
Hobart recorded 3.9% of houses and 8.5% of units reselling at a loss over the June 2017 quarter.  The occurrence of resales at a loss increased marginally over the quarter for houses and units.  The Kingsborough (98.9%), Hobart (98.3%) and Clarence (96.0%) council areas had the highest proportion of profit-making resales over the quarter.  The regions with the lowest proportion of profit-making resales over the quarter were: Brighton (82.3%), Derwent Valley (88.2%) and Sorell (93.7%).  
Darwin
28.4% of houses and 53.4% of units resold for less than their previous purchase price.  The instances of loss-making resales have trended higher over the quarter for units but lower for houses.  Across the council areas, Litchfield saw the highest proportion of profit-making resales (78.9%) followed by: Palmerston (67.2%) and Darwin (59.6%).  
Canberra
Canberra houses recorded an increase in loss-making resales over the June 2017 quarter while units recorded a decline.  Over the quarter, 97.8% of all houses resold transacted for more than their previous purchase price and 79.3% of units resold for more than their purchase price.  
Coastal Markets
Coastal markets, particularly those linked to lifestyle, have generally experienced a significant decline in the proportion of resales at a loss over recent years.  This is reflective of demand growing for coastal / lifestyle property and also reflective of reinvestment from Sydney and  Melbourne home owners that have accrued substantial equity in their properties.  Across those regions analysed, the proportion of resales at a loss over the June 2017 quarter were recorded at: 1.9% in Illawarra, 1.8% in Newcastle Lake Macquarie, 4.4% in Richmond-Tweed, 5.7% in Mid North Coast, 2.4% in Geelong, 26.5% in Bunbury, 26.1% in Cairns, 8.9% in Gold Coast and 7.2% in Sunshine Coast.   All regions except for Bunbury, the proportion of loss-making resales is substantially lower than it has been over recent years.  It highlights the resurgent confidence in coastal and lifestyle markets which has emerged over the past few years.  The proportion of homes resold at a loss fell across most of these regions over the past quarter, the exceptions were: Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, Bunbury and Cairns.    
Hold Periods
Houses which sold at a loss over the June 2017 quarter had a median hold period of 6.4 years compared to a median of 9.4 years for those that had sold for a profit. For units, those sold at a loss had typically been held for 6.9 years and those sold for a profit had been held for 7.8 years.  
Investors vs Owner Occupiers
A greater proportion of investors that resold their properties over the June 2017 quarter incurred a loss compared to owner occupiers. Over the quarter, 92.3% of resales by owner occupiers were at a profit compared to a lower 88.1% of resales by investors.  Sydney was the only major region of the country in which investors were more likely to resell at a profit than owner occupiers.  
Resales of homes held for less than five years:  
Of those homes which were resold over the quarter and had been held for less than five years, 10.7% of houses resold for a loss and 12.2% of units resold at a loss. Certain markets and property types saw a very high instance of resale loss on properties resold over the quarter that were held for less than five years:   • For houses; 48.8% in Perth resold at a loss, 37.3% resold at a loss in regional Western Australia, 58.5% resold at a loss in Darwin and 50.0% resold at a loss in regional Northern Territory.   • For units; 31.8% resold for a loss in Brisbane. 63.6% resold at a loss in regional South Australia, 69.3% resold for a loss in Perth, 34.8% resold for a loss in regional Western Australia and 54.2% resold at a loss in Darwin.  
 <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-06-painandgain.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a> 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-06-painandgain.png" alt="2017-10-06--painandgain" width="570" height="404">
What is the Pain &amp; Gain Report?  
A quarterly analysis of residential properties resold over the quarter &amp; compares the most recent sale price to the previous sale price in order to determine whether the property sold at a gross profit or gross loss.  It provides a proxy for the performance of each housing market and highlights the magnitude of profit or loss the typical seller of a home makes across those regions analysed.  
 
 
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Property resale losses much higher in regions than capitals: CoreLogic Pain & Gain report

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Queensland's Gold Coast, Ipswich and Sunshine Coast had the highest proportion of loss making resales over the September 2015 quarter, according to Core Logic RP Data's Pain &amp; Gain most recent report.
It found losing resales over the quarter in the Gold Coast (16.3 percent) Ipswich (14.4 percent) and Sunshine Coast (13.1 percent) with the lowest proportions of loss making sales in Toowoomba (3.6 percent), Brisbane (5.4 percent) and Lockyer Valley (7.3 percent).
In Brisbane, the proportion of loss making resales continued to trend lower and was recorded at 7.6% over the September 2015 quarter, the lowest since the first quarter of 2011.
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Gold Coast, Ipswich, Sunshine Coast lead quarterly loss making resales: CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain

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Gold Coast sellers in the 2015 June quarter lost $35 million when properties were resold at losses, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data pain &amp; gain report. Around 19% of sellers on the Gold Coast went backwards with their investment.
Across Brisbane, the proportion of loss-making resales has trended lower over the past few years and was recorded at 9.8% over the June 2015 quarter, up from 9.3% the previous quarter but lower than the 10.9% a year earlier.
Across South-East Queensland, the Toowoomba (3.0%), Brisbane (6.3%) and Redland (6.8%) council area have significantly lower proportions of loss-making sales compared to all other regions where the proportion of loss-making resales was in double digits.
The council areas with the highest proportion of loss-making resales were Somerset (26.1%), Gold Coast (19.9%) Scenic Rim and Lockyer Valley (both 19.4%).
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$35 million lost by Queensand Gold Coast sellers: CoreLogic RP Data Pain & Gain

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Mandurah vendors lost $6 million plus in recent property resales, with Stirling ranking next as Perth's biggest loss making locations, according to the recent CoreLogic RP Data Pain &amp; Gain report.
Overall around 8.6% of resold homes across Perth in the June 2015 quarter were sold for less than the previous purchase price compared to 6.7% the previous quarter and 4.2% a year earlier.
The 8.6% of resales at a loss ranks as the highest for the capital city since January 2013.
Peppermint Grove council areas recorded no resales at a loss over the quarter, while Claremont (3.3%) and Canning (3.5%) also had a low proportion.
The highest proportion of loss-making resales occurred in the Perth (27.5%), Mandurah (21.4%) and Murray (18.9%) council areas. 
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