Property Downturn

Property values across the country continued to decline over November, research from property data firm CoreLogic found, but there was a further ease in the speed of the declines.

Dwelling values (which incorporates both houses and units), contracted a further one per cent in November, driven by declines in Hobart (-2 per cent), Canberra (-1.2 per cent), and Sydney (-1 per cent).

Capital city housing markets declined -1.2 per cent, with Brisbane (-2.2 per cent), Hobart (-2 per cent) and Sydney (-1.5 per cent), feeling the declines the hardest.

Capital city units however dropped just -0.6 per cent. Hobart (-1.8 per cent), Sydney (-0.9 per cent) and Canberra (-0.8 per cent) the capital's the most affected in the unit market.

Declines however have continued to soften since August when the national index dropped by -1.6 per cent.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, but is also evident across many of the smaller capitals and most regional markets.&nbsp;

“Three months ago, Sydney housing values were falling at the monthly rate of -2.3 per cent. That has now reduced by a full percentage point to a decline of -1.3 per cent in November," Lawless said.&nbsp;

"In July, Melbourne home values were down -1.5 per cent over the month, with the monthly decline almost halving last month to -0.8 per cent.

“The rate of decline has also eased across the ACT (from a -1.7% fall in August), and is no longer accelerating in Brisbane. Most of the broad rest-of-state markets have also seen the pace of declines decelerate."

Lawless said that it is possible we are seeing the initial uncertainty around buying in a higher interest rate environment wearing off, while persistently low advertised stock levels have likely contributed to this trend towards smaller value falls. He does however note that housing risk remains skewed to the downside while interest rates are still rising and household balance sheets become more thinly stretched.

“There is still the possibility that the pace of declines could reaccelerate, especially if the current rate hiking cycle persists longer than expected.

"Next year will be a particular test of serviceability and housing market stability, as the record-low fixed rate terms secured in 2021 start to expire."

<h2>Melbourne Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Melbourne dropped just -0.2 per cent across November, the lowest declines the Victorian capital has seen since May. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>It's stark comparison to the housing market, which dropped another -1 per cent.</li>
</ul>

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<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -4.1 per cent down over 2022, almost half the declines felt in the housing market, now -8.1 per cent since the turn of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Melbourne unit value is now $597,000, and houses $759,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Sydney Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Unit values across Sydney dropped just -0.9&nbsp;per cent across November, the third highest of all the capital city markets. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Sydney houses dropped another -1.5 per cent in November.</li>
</ul>

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<ul>
	<li>Unit values are now -8.2 per cent down over 2022, which is double the declines in Melbourne. Houses in the Harbour capital are down -11.9 per cent in the same period. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Sydney unit value is now $781,000, and houses $1,025,000.</li>
</ul>

<h2>Brisbane Market Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>Brisbane had the biggest divergence between the house and unit market in November 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Unit values across Brisbane dropped just -0.2&nbsp;per cent across November, the third best performing unit market across the capitals. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Brisbane houses however were the worst performer, down -2.2 per cent</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163977]

<ul>
	<li>The Brisbane unit market has been one of the biggest success stories of 2022, bucking the trend of the downturn. Values are still 7.1 per cent higher than they were at the start of the year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The Brisbane house market has also remained resilient, just ticking into negative territory, down -0.8 per cent this year. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>The median Brisbane unit value is now $492,000, and houses $798,000.</li>
</ul>

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said the easing in the rate of decline is mostly emanating from the Sydney and Melbourne markets

Joel Robinson

Property downturn continues, but rate of decline softens again: CoreLogic

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Kew is an inner suburb of Melbourne, Victoira, 5 km east from Melbourne's Central Business District in the City of Booroondara.

In the recent 2017 property market downturn, median house values in Kew fell roughly $450,000 peak to trough.

That's just the fall observable since prices started falling in early 2018, slightly later than the downturn.

Median unit prices in Kew have remained stabler with little overall change from mid 2017 to current day.

However, since climbing to a new peak in early 2019 median apartment prices have fallen $40,000 to where they currently reside, according to the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/10413-kew-vic" target="_blank">latest CoreLogic data</a>.

<img alt="" src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/14/KEW%20median%20prices%202.JPG">

Kew has grown steadily since the early Bridge Road crossing development and is cited as one of the most prestigious suburbs in Melbourne.

Streets in the Sackville Ward (bounded by Barkers, Burke, Cotham and Glenferrie Roads), such as Alfred, Rowland, Wellington, Grange and Sackville, have numerous examples of Edwardian, Victorian and contemporary architecture.

To learn all you need to know about Kew, from median asking rents to household composition, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/10413-kew-vic" target="_blank">click here</a>. 

As a landlord it is important to check the asking rent trend regularly to ensure you are getting the most value out of your investment.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

How Kew house prices have fallen since the 2017 downturn

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Governor provided a cautiously optimistic overview of the Aussie economy and a reasonably upbeat assessment of the Reserve Bank’s response to the pandemic crisis. In his opening statement to the Select Committee on COVID-19 today, he said “The evidence so far is that our mid-March package is working as expected and it is helping build the necessary bridge to the recovery.” Dr Lowe also stressed, “With the national health outcomes better than earlier feared, it is possible that the economic downturn will not be severe as earlier thought. Much depends on how quickly confidence can be restored.”
On interest rates: Governor Lowe remained cautious about the road to recovery and signalled that record low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy support would remain in place “for a few years.” He stressed, “But even as the recovery gets under way, there will still be a shadow cast by the pandemic. As a country, we will need to turn our minds as to how to move out of this shadow. A reform agenda that makes Australia a great place for businesses to expand, invest, innovate and hire people would certainly help. For its part, the RBA will maintain its expansionary settings until progress is being made towards full employment and we are confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band.”
On fiscal policy and JobKeeper: In the lengthy cross examination by Senators that followed, Dr. Lowe emphasised that, “It’s very important we don’t withdraw fiscal stimulus too early” and “fiscal policy will have to play a more important role” in the future. In reference to the government’s JobKeeper wage subsidy program, Dr. Lowe said that the Reserve Bank used a much more granular approach to its labour market forecasts and assumptions, “We started the forecasting process [in March] at the number of hours worked.” No assumptions on the number of people on JobKeeper or JobSeeker were considered. And he noted “JobKeeper has kept the connection between workers and firms. The recovery would be more difficult without JobKeeper.” He also expected to see some form of JobKeeper retained for specific industries, such as tourism with international borders unlikely to be re-opened before year end.
On the labour market: Dr. Lowe reiterated the importance of developments in the labour market: “My main focus has very much been on hours worked. I’m expecting to see a decline in May but not of the magnitude of April. The labour force has a lot of definitional issues.” The Governor had previously forecast that hours worked in the economy could fall by 20 per cent. But he now believes that the decline may be closer to 15 per cent and wants to see a “reasonable increase in hours worked in July and August.” And when prodded on his views on the fabled “full employment” number, Dr. Lowe proffered “In February I would have said 4.5 per cent. We were making progress. We know from previous sharp economic downturns that there is scarring in the labour market. It is quite possible that the estimate of full employment rises back up to 5 per cent.”
On monetary support for the economy and negative interest rates: The Governor also said that the Reserve Bank remains “focused on keeping funding costs low across the country” and “keeping interest rates low for bank borrowers. Central banks work through lending not spending.” When prodded on unconventional monetary policy Dr Lowe said, “I think negative interest rates are extraordinary unlikely here. The reason that people are sceptical is the cost to the financial system as it impairs profitability and the ability to lend. Negative interest rates don’t work.” If required, “we could purchase more bonds”, but “as things stand at the moment we don’t see need to do more” as the banks “have a lot of liquidity”. And “we’ve bought $50 billion worth of government bonds that will eventually mature.”
On reforms and infrastructure spending: "The economy has become less dynamic", said, Dr. Lowe and “a reform agenda to encourage investment, hiring would help…regulation is a barrier to entrepreneurship”. On infrastructure spending the Governor said, “Surely there are plenty of good infrastructure projects with a risk adjusted return for Australian society of better than 1.5 per cent.”
On government debt: “The level of public debt, while rising in Australia, is still low. There is strong demand for debt and the government has the capability to issue more debt.”
On the global economy: “There are a lot of domestic ramifications from a weak global economy.”
On recent economic data and forecasts: “We’re tracking between the baseline and the upside forecast scenarios. The recent data has been better than expected but I still a lot of challenges ahead. Even in an upside scenario it’s still a pretty depressing scenario. On policy moves he notes in hindsight and with reference to JobKeeper revisions “We would have done the same thing.”
APRA Chair remarks to the Board of International Banking Federation
APRA Chair Wayne Byers provided an online speech, “Going the distance: APRA’s approach to the COVID-19 fight.”
On pandemic preparation: “In Australia, we have had prudential guidance on pandemic planning for financial institutions in place for many years, and it has certainly proved its worth in recent months.”
On solvency pressures: “Measures to backstop liquidity have worked well and bought us time, but solvency pressures are mounting as credit risks come to the fore.”
On financial services disruption: “Thankfully, firms’ plans have stood up well and (along with a great deal of reactive work behind the scenes) the level of disruption to financial services has thus far been minimal.”
On financial system health: “We were fortunate that Australia went into 2020 with a banking system in generally good health. We had been working for some years to position our largest banks in the top quartile of international peers from a capital adequacy perspective, and fortuitously they had achieved that positioning before the crisis struck. On an internationally comparable basis, our largest banks are operating with CET1 ratios in the order of 15-16 per cent, and capital within the broader banking system is at a historical high – and about twice the level heading into the 2008 crisis. Funding and liquidity positions were also stronger, and asset quality was good, reflecting a lot of supervisory attention in recent years.”
On the road ahead: “This crisis will almost certainly precipitate enduring change in the way society operates. The idea that we’ll employ some temporary measures and then everything will ‘go back to normal’ is therefore a dangerously naïve one on which to base our decisions. Flexibility and agility will be important – we have a long battle ahead.”
On the regulatory and supervisory landscape: “First, financial and operational resilience – the core of prudential supervision – will be the primary area of focus in the foreseeable future… Second, the post-2008 reforms will be properly tested, and inevitably we will find areas they can be improved…. Third, transparency will become even more important.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank Governor’s more optimistic tone was somewhat reassuring today. He seemed satisfied that the Bank had done all it could to help cushion the economic blow from the pandemic, but appears prepared to do more (buy more bonds) if the recovery fails to gather momentum as the economy is re-opened.
Of course, the Governor remains focused on developments in Australia’s labour market. The Bank’s assessment of the economy is predicated on the number of hours worked by Australians. The Governor emphasised that “What I’m focused on is people getting their jobs and income. Mortgage repayments are entirely manageable if you’ve got a job and income.” But "The shape and timing of that recovery depends not only on when restrictions are lifted, but also on the confidence that Australians have about their own health and their finances,"
Improving jobs data from the Bureau of Statistics, SEEK and Indeed – albeit off very low levels – provides unemployed Aussies with some hope and lifts confidence.
But a lot of uncertainty will remain, thus impacting consumer behaviour, until a potential virus vaccine is found. In the meantime, government policymakers would be well advised to retain the large fiscal and welfare support necessary for Australian workers and businesses to survive and operate through these challenging times until the economy finds a firmer footing.
RYAN FELMSAN Senior Economist, CommSec
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RBA says downturn less severe than first appeared: CommSec's Ryan Feldman

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The fall in Sydney real house prices is close to hitting its average downturn decline at only halfway through the average downturn cycle, a BIS Oxford Economics study shows. 
The average downturn for Sydney house prices is 14 quarters and the current downturn has progressed through six quarters to December 2018.
But real median prices – after taking out the effects of inflation – are already down 16 per cent, which means Sydney could potentially see the total real price decline exceed the typical downturn of 21 per cent. <cite class="_23SOU"> </cite>
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/19/Sydney-Houses.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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"So far, the period of decline in these two markets has been much shorter than the longest downturn duration and around half of their respective average downturn lengths in both the house and unit markets," said BIS Oxford Economics' Angie Zigomanis who analysed five cycles since 1965.
"It is foreseeable that the current downturn in the Sydney and Melbourne markets may have at least another year to run before reaching the cyclical trough."
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However he suggests the likely scenario was a flattening of prices at the end of the year, without an immediate upward recovery.
The 1980s downturn saw 34 per cent price drops over 23 quarters.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/19/Sydney-units.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/19/Sydney-units.jpg" alt="">
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Zigomanis noted that inflation in the 1980s was higher, causing more volatile price swings whereas lower inflation now could curb deep movements.
The Sydney apartment cycle mirrors its house price cycle, with real prices down 13 per cent at the halfway mark. 
Melbourne was experiencing a more moderate price fall than Sydney, the report published by Nine Entertainment said.
Real Melbourne prices have fallen 14 per cent in six quarters compared with the historical average of 15 per cent over 11 quarters.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney's cyclical property price downturn quicker than normal: BIS Oxford

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Australia’s rapid property market downturn is beginning to have a severe impact on residential real estate agencies around Australia.
And it could force some out of business, says insolvency and turnaround specialist Jirsch Sutherland. 
“We are already noticing the first signs of financial distress,” says Jirsch Sutherland partner Sule Arnautovic.
“We understand that some agencies are struggling to meet their fixed overheads, with the likelihood of staff redundancies, consolidation, mergers or insolvency now firmly on the horizon. 
“With property values having dropped by as much as 15 per cent over the past 12 months, some agencies located in former powerhouse markets are considering mergers or insolvency as their incoming revenue declines rapidly. 
“We’ve heard from industry insiders saying that the drop in house prices is being exacerbated by longer marketing periods, lower-commission competitors, difficult credit access for buyers, and the fact that many younger sales agents, who found success easy during boom times, are now finding they lack the skills to cope in a far more challenging marketplace.”
Arnautovic says the future of numerous agencies around the country is likely to come into question, with declining revenues set to bite hard. 
“The housing market continues to tighten in many parts of the country and it’s already increasingly clear that many agencies will feel the pinch in terms of reduced and deferred revenue,” he says.
“With house prices tipped to drop much further in certain key markets over the coming months, we believe we may only be looking at the tip of the iceberg in terms of the challenges faced by real estate agencies.”
Rent rolls may not be the saviour 
Adding to potential difficulty is the fact that many agencies have not invested adequately in their property management divisions, preferring instead to focus most of their resources on sales.
As a result, few property management teams have been allowed to adopt new technologies that would make rental processes more efficient and easier for both landlords and tenants, thus allowing companies to better capitalise on the revenue potential of their rent rolls. 
“In previous downturns, and indeed the recession in the late 80s/early 90s, rent rolls helped keep many agencies afloat,” Arnautovic says.
“But today, as rents fall in some parts of the country, some agents will find they no longer have the income to service the loans they arranged to originally buy the rent roll. It could be a perfect storm: decreasing property management fees and lower volume of sales, which would make it difficult for some agencies to cope with their own property and asset leases, not to mention wages and entitlements. 
“With these new realities in mind, it’s vital for stressed agencies to consider action early if they find themselves in financial difficulty. The key thing to remember is that early action is vital. By deciding to adopt an appropriate strategy as soon as possible, highly adverse outcomes can most likely be avoided.”
Seeking Safe Harbour
The 2017 changes to Safe Harbour laws are one example of how worst-case scenarios can be avoided.  
“Safe Harbour laws give Directors breathing space, providing them time to consider the position of the company early in the piece, without the potential threat of insolvent trading,” says Arnautovic.
“In turn, this may improve the position for creditors, enabling them to explore the possibility of restructure or sale, which may subsequently lead to more of the company’s value being preserved.”
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Housing downturn could send real estate agents to the brink: Jirsch Sutherland

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As the property downturn draws to an end, there are important lessons for policy-makers, lenders and investors to be learned. 
Labor’s loss has eliminated the number one risk to the property market and this, combined with the high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the RBA this year, the introduction of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and APRA’s proposal to remove the 7% ‘stress test’ replacing it with a 2.5% buffer, will support the bottoming of the Sydney and Melbourne markets by the end of the year and then a gradual recovery. 
There are six key lessons to be learned from the downturn and how to mitigate them to avoid another property crash in the future.
<ol>
<li>Despite claims by some experts it had been on the verge of collapse, the market remained viable, despite price falls. And, with a “good arsenal of tools” by the policy-makers, there should be no crash. In September last year, some experts warned of collapse due to ballooning household debt, compounded by sliding prices in Sydney and Melbourne, that would escalate to falls of 40 to 45% in the next 12 months. Not only has it not happened - and would not even if the Labor had won the election - but more importantly, policy-makers have taken measures to boost demand. The First Home Buyers Scheme (that could also be a larger-scale first home buyers’ grant, if needed) was introduced prior to the election by the Coalition and was adopted a few hours later by Labor. In addition, the flow-on effect of lower property prices on household wealth, consumer spending and also on dwelling commencements and, consequently, lower GDP, increases the likelihood of interest rate cuts to ‘almost certain’. APRA’s credit restrictions to reduce investor demand had eased and it was proposing lenders scrap the 7% ‘stress test’ requirement on home loans replacing it with a buffer of 2.5% on top of the interest rates. The important thing to remember here is that in the future don’t expect total collapse of the housing market in a US GFC-style meltdown. It is extremely unlikely, and policy-makers take actions when required. It’s equally important that decisions should not be made under the assumption that very extreme scenarios will take place, for example, following the 60 Minutes story in September 2018 in which it was reported there could be a 40% drop in Australia's house prices … this had an impact on sentiment and confidence to some extent. 
</li>
<li>A more aggressive monetary policy is required by the RBA. The RBA should have cut interest rates already and should not have made statements declaring the next move being upwards when there were so many economic indicators and key risk indicators that should have been taken note of, such as the strong connection between dwelling prices, household wealth and spending. An example of this is the stronger than expected fall in dwelling commencements, as published by RiskWise in December 2018, alongside an extended period of time when inflation was consistency well below target and wage growth was poor. 
</li>
<li>Investors amplify credit and dwelling price cycles contributing to financial stability risks. Therefore, any major reduction in investor activity has an impact on the demand of both existing and new properties. It is unrealistic to expect an increase in dwelling commencements when investor activity is significantly reduced. This is a key lesson for any policy-maker who proposes a policy with a major impact on investor demand, and the proposed taxation changes by Labor are a prime example for that. 
</li>
<li>Off-the-plan units mainly in high-supply areas carry a high level of risk. Since mid-2017, RiskWise has been warning that many areas subject to unit oversupply carry high risk of low demand and price reductions. This risk is very relevant to construction lenders, developers and obviously buyers, largely investors,” he said. Prime examples include the Brisbane CBD where, even as early as June 2016 in Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) Brisbane Inner-City, price growth was -1.8% with 17,417 units in the pipeline, an addition of 24.5% to the current stock. A recent <a href="https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/off-the-plan-apartments-bomb-for-investors-20190404-p51aw4" target="_blank">analysis</a> by BIS Oxford Economics also demonstrates that two out of three Melbourne apartments sold off-the-plan over the past eight years made no price gains or lost money upon resale, despite a property boom and record immigration.  
</li>
<li>It’s important to listen to mainstream economists and research houses which provide accurate and up-to-date predictions. This was particularly the case from the end of 2017 when it was obvious property prices would materially decrease. The only question then was ‘by how much exactly?’ This is a key lesson, mainly for lenders and investors, as the majority of the assets that were purchased in the past couple of years experienced material price reductions, and many of them with negative or very little equity. Obviously, in some cases poor credit decisions have been made and some investors will need a number of years to see their property value increasing to the original purchase price. Mainstream leading economists and research houses shared with the media the results of their analysis – the same results they provide to their clients, in most cases lenders and investment funds. They have no incentive to mislead their clients and talk the market up or down. Any major policies must be constantly reviewed and their impact reassessed according to recent developments in the housing market. Eg Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing did not have a visible reassessment process from when it was suggested in 2016, despite major changes in the property market. Policy-makers should have a proper process of challenge and feedback from mainstream bodies that research the market, especially if that research is saying the implications could be adverse. 
</li>
<li>Affordable areas show more resilience than the top end of the market </li>
</ol>
This can be demonstrated using CoreLogic’s latest Quarterly Economic Review from February which showed despite a 7% fall across Melbourne for the last three months of 2018, the bottom end enjoyed a 0.5% increase.
Also, in the past 12 months houses in the lucrative areas of the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney have fallen by 10.9% and the Inner-East in Melbourne by 18.8%.
Investors or owner-occupiers with low equity have to reconsider purchasing a property at the top end of the market as they could suffer from high volatility in the short term.
For example, if you plan to refinance or sell and move to another property in three to five years expecting strong capital growth, this could be significantly impacted by major economic events.
However, the lower end is by far less volatile and generally less subject to such strong market movements.
DORON PELEG is CEO of RiskWise Property Research.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Six key lessons from the recent property downturn: Doron Peleg

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Prahran is an inner suburb of Melbourne, Victoria, 5 km south-east of Melbourne's Central Business District, located within the City of Stonnington.
In the recent 2017 property market downturn, median unit values in Prahran fell roughly $125,000 peak to trough.
They have made a moderate recovery since then recovering over 50% of the loss.
House prices in Prahran have seen larger fall in value however they have yet to see a similar trend of recovery, according to the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/10819-st-albans-vic" target="_blank">latest CoreLogic data</a>.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/11/Prahran%20Values.JPG" alt="">
Residential Prahran consists of mostly single storey Victorian and Edwardian terrace houses, with some larger double storey terraces closer to the main shopping strips.
To learn all you need to know about Prahran, from median asking rents to household composition, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/10819-st-albans-vic" target="_blank">click here</a>. 
As a landlord it is important to check the asking rent trend regularly to ensure you are getting the most value out of your investment.
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