Property Boom

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Here's a clue as to why Sydney has been having a property boom that no other capital city has come close to matching. NSW has the nation's No.1 economy and, according to ABS data, has created more jobs in the past six months than the rest of Australia combined. 
That remarkable situation provides the best explanation of the Sydney real estate boom, far more so than the flimsy offering from most economists, who attribute the boom to low interest rates (but can't explain why Brisbane, Perth, Canberra, Adelaide, Darwin, Hobart and most of regional Australia aren't having price booms). 
The Sydney/NSW economy is pumping, boosted by high levels of spending on infrastructure and a return of business confidence thanks to changes in the political scene.
According to the ABS, NSW has added 85,600 jobs since January. All the other states and territories have managed a combined 68,000. 
The NSW economy has been rising steadily ever since the worst government in my lifetime, the 16-year-old NSW Labor Government, was tossed out in a predictable landslide in 2011.
With that change, things that had been long absent from Sydney and NSW began to happen again. Decisions started being made. Infrastructure spending resumed. The economy awoke from its coma and business re-opened. Jobs started to be created, with those latest figures from the ABS providing evidence of a process that has been four years in the making.
According to ANZ research, employment growth in NSW has been led by four industry sectors: health, education, hospitality and professional services.
It’s not a coincidence that the rise of the Sydney property market after 10 dormant years has happened during this resuscitation of the NSW economy.
Low interest rates, the fallback position of economists who haven’t got a clue (i.e. most of them), have little or nothing to do with Sydney’s elevated market.
If it was all about interest rates, Perth prices would be zooming instead of going backwards. A clue to the decline of the Perth market is also found in the ABS employment figures: Western Australia, previously a leading generator of jobs, has created only 8,500 positions in the past six months, one-tenth of that managed by NSW. Since January the WA unemployment rate has risen from 5.5% to 6.3%.
Just three years ago, the NSW ranked joint second last, alongside South Australia, in the CommSec State of the States report. Back in July 2012, it was “WA first and daylight second”, according to one media report. The ACT, the Northern Territory, Queensland and Victoria all ranked above mediocre NSW, which was tied with SA in sixth place, with only Tasmania ranked lower.
Fast forward three years and the latest State of the States report indicates that NSW is now entrenched as the No.1 strongest economy in the land, having taken over the top ranking from WA last year. 
NSW ranks first or second among the states and territories on population growth, retail trade, employment, equipment investment and housing construction.
A growing economy, extensive spending on transport and other infrastructure, the return of confidence in the state government and the local economy, solid population growth, jobs being created – that’s the recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge. And it would have happened if the RBA hadn’t been cutting interest rates.
 TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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The recipe that cooked up Sydney’s real estate surge: Terry Ryder

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<div>Total housing finance came in at a seasonally adjusted $32.8 billion in July, which represented a 1.5% increase on the June result - following on from a 3.6% increase in June - but remained slightly below the record high of $33.1 billion seen in April this year.</div>
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<div>On a trend basis total housing finance ticked up to a new high of $32.6 billion to be 15% higher than one year ago.</div>
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<div>Investment loans increased moderately to $13.6 billion in July, but this was also slightly below the April high of $14 billion, suggesting that APRA's cooling measures are beginning to take hold.</div>
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<div>On a rolling annual basis investment loans have continued to shoot the lights out through an unprecedented surge, with investors accounting for more than half of loans written excluding refinancing.</div>
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<div>Although this is inevitably forcing prices higher in some cities, we are now increasingly seeing more landlords than prospective renters in some locations, and rents in these locations will stagnate or fall.</div>
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<div>State versus state</div>
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<div>At the state level there were increases in owner-occupier commitments in most states and territories in seasonally adjusted terms in July, but declines were seen in the Northern Territory and the ACT.</div>
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<div>Driven by a fear of missing out, Sydney homebuyers are thrusting New South Wales loan values off the top of the chart with more than $73 billion of lending over the past year. A huge boom. With APRA measures dialling back riskier investment lending as sure as night follows day lenders will be targeting homebuyers, with home loan products now available from interest rates of around just 4%. </div>
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Brisbane's owner-occupier commitments have continued their studious recovery, with loan values at the state level ticking up to their highest level since March 2010 on a 12mMA basis, although mining and resources regions are continuing to weigh heavy acting as a drag on the state data. 
<a href="/images/2015/09/10/hf4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div>As for New South Wales in July, at $7.5 billion of owner-occupier commitments in July there has never another month like it it any state or territory, with commitnents accelerating to be tracking an enormous 28% higher than one year go.</div>
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<div>The incredible Sydney property boom evidently has some steam left in it yet. 
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<div>Despite this apparently indefatigable Sydney largesse, with inflation and now total housing finance apparently both under control in recent months, any further increase in the unemployment rate is likely to be met with calls for further rate cuts.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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The incredible Sydney property boom has steam left in it: Pete Wargent

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Bubble Talk seems to have eased off (finally) as most headline avoiding commentators acknowledge we are not in a bubble, if a bubble is defined by illogical price increases and/or unsustainable longer term prices.
Yes we are in a run of price increases (beginning in the 1900’s – pushing along since the GFC 2009 recovery, accelerating further since October 2012 and the foot to the floor since Christmas); but the price increases have been largely due to deep overseas demand as the world says “Melbourne – you are an International Property Market we want to invest in”.
At some time the market will ease, it will have falls and that would more than likely be caused by changes in migration/population/overseas demand. That could be tomorrow and if it does, then prices will drop.
The government has begun to tinker around the edges trying to control this boom, by getting banks to alter interest rates for investors. As far as Inner Melbourne homes go, this should have minimal effect on the market, just as the stamp duty tinkerings of a few months ago, as predicted, have made zero difference to overseas investment.
We are not saying that trying to ease the boom is not a good a thing, its just the real driver of our current Inner Melbourne market boom is Asian investment combined with increasing wealthy migration / population, not local investor interest rates. All altering interest rates for locals will do, is make it easier for Asian investors to buy.
Understanding these concepts is critical for buyers – as acting or not acting based on fear, rather than reason usually means poorer decisions.
Example: For decades Western society as a whole has believed that fat is bad and fat makes you fat. Accordingly we have all made dietary decisions based on that assumption and as a society we have got fatter and fatter, despite not wanting to. “Bubble” headlines are very similar to “Fat” headlines if it means you as a buyer make poor decisions, based on false assumptions.
If/when a significant market change occurs, it will be due to a lessening of demand (it will be understandable); not due to a bursting of some artificial, unexplainable bubble. It is important to differentiate that there is no truth based on fact, that we are in an artificial or illogical price situation as far as Inner Melbourne houses go.
There are very real and logical reasons why prices are increasing and it’s called overseas demand and limited local supply.
Yes a boring headline, but a truthful one. It’s important for buyers to understand the current market, so as they can make informed decisions; not ones based on the more exciting, but less accurate headlines of Bubble, Bubble, Price Falls and Trouble.
Our advice to buyers is when the developing markets of India, China and others start to falter and the money flow to Australia changes and both Liberal and Labour espouse restrictive migration and population policies; then, as buyers we would be sitting up and taking notice re possible long term land value deflation; as we saw in Japan (no migration, no population increases). Until then, the more pressing problem is how are we going to secure our dream home in Inner Melbourne in the next year.
Word of warning: Please understand our comments are based on the Inner Melbourne Market, not the overall Melbourne market. Please do not assume prices will always increase and therefore stretch too far.
Yes treasury officials said there are risks right now, but there are risks in buying in any market. We feel you can best mitigate your homebuying risks by making well informed decisions, and that is true in any market. In our opinion a decision not to enter the market is not necessarily a well informed one if your longer term desired outcome is one of emotional and financial security through good home buying.
We feel the Inner Melbourne Market risks are not “bubble” related, they are demand and supply related. We cannot see any evidence that says the risk in buying a home now is more elevated than a year ago or anymore elevated than we perceive the risks might be in 2016. Please don’t think in the next six months that the market must fall or please don’t think the market cannot rise any further, because there are no facts to support either theory with certainty. 
The only certain thing in 2015 is, we are in a market.
Markets at times are flat and at times rise and fall.
Every property decision should be an informed individual one, with a sharp eye on mortgage payments/interest rates, as at some stage interest rates will go up and/or prices will fall; but balanced with the fact that getting in now, as in almost all cases over the last 30 years, has proven to be a good home buying decision (if the home was a good buy, meeting the individual’s shorter and longer term desired outcomes – with good PPP’s).
Summary: There are risks in individuals buying homes in any Inner Melbourne market (interest rate/employment/health changes) – the risks in 2015 do not appear to be elevated as implied by some Treasury officials. Homebuying risks are not mitigated by inaction, they are mitigated by making informed action decisions. In our opinion, unless there is a change in migration, Asian money flow and/or population policies, the real elevated risk maybe in not at least considering getting into the current Inner Melbourne market (with the right PPP’s and FFF’s of course).
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Buyer's agent Mal James on house price bubble risks 

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Part of the message in this week’s release of price statistics in Perth was an oversupply of properties in the market.
It’s a theme that will recur increasingly in major markets around Australia: contrary to the vested-interest message from the developer lobby, the biggest issue facing real estate is not shortages but surpluses.
In Perth, according to the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia, the growing numbers of homes available for sale has tipped the market into significant oversupply. As a consequence, prices are falling.
Part of Perth’s issue is too many new apartments in the market. The CBD, West Perth and East Perth unit markets all have vacancies of 7.5% or higher and there is massive new supply in the pipeline. The number of apartments to be completed in Perth’s inner suburbs this year is 52% higher than the previous record year – at a time when demand is declining.
This issue will be repeated in other major cities around Australia: rising numbers of properties for sale, in excess of the number of buyers, exacerbated by the insane resolve of developers to keep building mega apartment towers.
The Perth inner-city apartment market features strongly in the new edition of the No Go Zones report I published this week.
The oversupplied unit market problem is one of two core issues at the heart of this report. The other is resources-related locations where developers built too many new dwellings, unaware that most of the new workers coming into their areas would be FIFO personnel staying in temporary workers camps.
Perth is not alone in having high inner-city vacancies set to get worse as new projects are completed. Melbourne and Brisbane also have too many empty apartments but are building more – far too many. The Gold Coast, which can’t seem to shake its boom-bust addiction, is hurtling towards its next catastrophic oversupply.
A recent report purporting to be credible research claimed that Brisbane would run out of apartments to sell within five months. This conclusion, which had property professionals chuckling all over Brisbane, was generated through creative accounting by an entity that makes its living selling inner-city apartments.
The reality is that the Brisbane CBD vacancy rate is already 5% and will get considerably worse as the new high-rise developments are completed. Surrounding suburbs are in similar situations. As I have reported previously in this column, only 10% of buyers in this market are home-buyers and most of the investors who make up the other 90% are distant investors. This is a clear signal to steer clear of this market.
Sydney’s inner-city apartment does not have any oversupply issues – not yet. But it’s headed down the same slippery path as Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane. The number of apartments to be completed across the Sydney metropolitan area over the next three years is double the historical average rate of construction.
The developer lobby’s claims of shortages will begin to look silly over the next couple of years as vacancies rise and values decline. The record rate of construction of new apartments is coinciding with the end of the Sydney property boom.
Properties listed for sale are rising fast as sales rates and auction clearance rates fade.
Developers are banking on being able to sell their stock in Asia. The recent marketing launch of a Melbourne project of 140 units was typical: the project was launched simultaneously to buyers in Beijing, Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur, Sabah and Singapore – with no attempt to sell any apartments to local buyers.
Like most of the major unit projects under way in Melbourne – and elsewhere - they’re not being built to meet local demand. They’re being targeted on Asian investors. 
The outcome will be the city’s greatest ever over-supply, with double-digit vacancy rates. Other analysts, like BIS Shrapnel, have made similar predictions. Paul Nugent of Wakelin Property Advisory has said: “Get out as soon as possible [otherwise] it will take 10 to 15 years before you get your money back.”
This is why Melbourne’s inner-city unit market is part of the No Go Zones report – which lists the ten markets across Australia that investors must avoid.
History has shown that the one factor that can collapse property values in Australia is oversupply – and that’s where the locations listed in this report are heading.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Part of Perth’s issue is too many new apartments: Terry Ryder

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There’s a chasm-sized gap between perception and reality in Australian real estate.
A recent survey of consumers by MLC found there’s a widespread belief that homes are beyond the grasp of first-time buyers and that future generations won’t be able to afford to buy. That’s the common perception and it comes as no surprise, given that mainstream media keeps banging on about an affordability crisis, amid claims that the dream is dead.
The reality is quite different. As I wrote last week, the latest Affordability Index from the HIA has found that affordability nationally is the best it’s been in over five years and that some parts of Australia have the best level of affordability since 2003. Clearly, Sydney is an exception, although there was improvement in the March Quarter.
Reinforcing that point is the actual activity of first-time buyers. The latest NAB Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey indicates that 33.5% of sales of new dwellings in the March Quarter were to first-time buyers.
That suggests first-time buyers are the dominant buying force in new properties, having a greater market share than owner-occupiers (other than first-home buyers), Australian investors and foreign investors.
In addition, the NAB survey finds that 26 percent of established dwellings were sold to first-time buyers – also a strong market share, though less than owner-occupiers (other than first-home buyers), who make up 43 percent of the market for established homes.
There’s a stark contrast there is the results of two surveys. The MLC survey found most people think young buyers are being priced out of the market and that 58% believe the next generation will be forced to rent all their lives. But the NAB survey found first-time buyers are out there in force and, in the new-home sector, are dominating the market.
Why so different? It’s because the NAB report was based on a survey of property professionals who are at the coalface daily and know what’s going on. The MLC survey was based on consumers, whose perceptions about what’s going on are influenced by media sound bytes.
Media reportage of real estate is overwhelmingly negative and that’s reflected in the MLC survey results – which are interesting but ultimately worthless because they contradict reality.
Generally, the NAB survey found that industry sentiment improved in the March Quarter, after having fallen for the previous three quarters.
Sentiment was strongest in Victoria. This makes sense, because while the Sydney boom is over, Melbourne still has momentum.
Expectations for price growth are strongest in Victoria. Melbourne and Brisbane are expected to be the best price performers in 2016, while Perth (also not surprising) has the weakest expectations for prices among the capital cities.
The findings for the apartment markets also make sense. Unit prices are expected to fall in Perth (because of a weak economy) and Melbourne (because of oversupply).
The survey found foreign buyers were less of a force in the market – and have switched their focus from NSW and Victoria to Queensland, where foreigners account for 20 percent of sales of new properties.
This reflects the ramping up of marketing of high-rise units in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast, two markets that smart investors will avoid.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
 
 
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Sydney boom over, Melbourne has momentum and avoid Brisbane: Terry Ryder

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The New South Wales property boom isn’t over. It’s just that it’s migrated from Sydney and now resides in regional NSW.
The latest Hotspotting research finds that there are twice as many suburbs/towns with growth property markets in the regions as there are in the capital city.
It’s really hard now to find suburbs with growth markets in Sydney. By “growth markets” we mean suburbs with rising sales activity.
Those that exist are mostly found in the distant outer reaches of the Sydney metropolitan area, in places like the Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs in the south-west. This is yet another sign that the Sydney boom has run its course.
Most suburbs across Sydney are now what we call plateau markets. They’ve risen to a certain level over the preceding several quarters, passed their peak and have leveled off.
There are few instances of dramatic decline. This is one reason we don’t expect prices to fall to any great degree. As in 2004, the last time a significant Sydney boom ended after 2-3 chirpy years, price growth will fall away to increasingly low levels and values are unlikely to fall.
Meanwhile, the momentum has switched to regional NSW. This is good news for investors, provided they’re willing to shake loose from the capital city addiction that afflicts many consumers and consider the possibilities of buying in a strong regional city.
Buying in a good regional market presents what we like to call a win-win-win situation. Win #1 is lower entry prices. Win #2 is much better rental yields. Win #3 is good prospects for capital growth – provided you choose your target wisely.
There are plenty of places in regional NSW you wouldn’t want to buy. When we advocate regional locations, we’re thinking of those that meet some basic criteria.
You should be looking for a place with a substantial and growing population, in a strategic location well-connected to major centres by road, rail and air, at the heart of a broad region of people who travel to their regional city for retail, medical, education and other services – and, often, to retire.
The ideal targets will have economic diversity, good spending on infrastructure, low vacancy rates and one or two big kickers – specific events that represent the icing on the investment cake.
NSW, more than any other state or territory, has an abundance of strong regional centres that meet those standards. 
And there are numerous among them for strong sales momentum pointing to price growth.
The Central Coast has been strong for a couple of years now, having caught some momentum from Sydney. The Gosford and Wyong LGAs were among the first regional areas to rise and they, like Sydney, appear to have passed their peaks, with sales levels tapering off. 
But many others are rising. Newcastle and neighbouring precincts – including the Lake Macquarie, Port Stephens, Maitland and Cessnock municipalities – present as a large population centre with a bustling economy and plenty of growth markets. 
Sales levels have surged over the past 18 months in Port Macquarie, a strong coastal city greatly boosted by big spending on infrastructure.
Albury and its twin city Wodonga at the Victorian border fits all the core criteria as a regional centre worth considering and currently has numerous suburbs with growth markets.
These are many others with credentials, including Dubbo, Goulburn, Bathurst, Orange, Wagga Wagga, Tamworth, Wollongong and the towns of the Southern Highlands.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
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New South Wales property boom has migrated: Terry Ryder

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The future is a different country and 2016 will certainly be a different place to the year just ending.
As Sydney’s boom ends, other locations around Australia are stepping up as locations poised for price growth. Success in property investing will depend, as always, on buying in the right places.
But there are a number of key steps investors need to take before considering where they might buy in 2016. Here’s my five-step process to stay safe and do well in the year ahead. 
1 Develop a plan
Most wannabe investors start the process with the search for properties to buy. They’re destined to fail from the very start.
No one should start looking online for properties before taking a series of steps leading to that point. There needs to be a plan, which should contain goals, strategies and tactics.
If you don’t know the end game – your ultimate goal – it’s difficult to develop a strategy for getting there.
Part of the planning process is understanding yourself. I receive emails every day from people who bought investment property in a resources-related location and now are freaking out because the market is down. These kinds of locations are always volatile and most investors don’t have the temperaments or financial means needed to ride the troughs while they wait for the peaks.
There are myriad ways to invest in real estate. Most people think passive investment – buy a property and find a tenant – but there are other options. The investment technique you choose will dictate what you buy and where you buy it.
2 Be willing to pay for quality research and good advice
All of the truly successful investors I know, people with 20, 30 or more properties, spend money to make money. They treat property investment as a business - they spend on advice from experts and on good research sources before making any buying decisions. 
The proposition of most wannabe investors is this: Yes, I’ll spend $500,000 buying an investment property, but No, I won’t spend $50 on a research report, and I won’t spend $500 on an independent valuation to make sure I’m paying the right price and I certainly won’t spend $5,000 accessing specialist advice on how to invest wisely and build a property portfolio. 
It’s the worst kind of false economy. 
3 Build a team 
Part of the process outlined in step 2 is building a team of experts. They include mortgage brokers, research specialists, property advisors who can help develop strategies, accountants who understand real estate investment (many don’t), specialist lawyers and depreciation experts. 
You need a team of consultants you can go to for quality advice. Refusing to spend money on these things is another example of false economy. 
4 Education and research
It’s alarming how little the average punter knows about real estate. They’re proposing to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on something about which they know nothing, other than vague impressions absorbed from media.
Research is the foundation of all successful investment strategies. It takes time and if you don’t have the time, you need to be willing to spend money buying good research. If you’re unwilling to spend the time or the money, forget about property investment. 
I often tell audiences a key part of the research process is to stop reading newspapers. Newspapers are full of misinformation, much of it sensational negatives, about residential property.
Right now, mainstream media is running simplistic and misleading story lines such as: the boom is over, the bubble is about to burst, no one can afford to buy, etc. The reality is that, while Sydney’s boom is winding down, there are many locations around the nation which will have growth markets in 2016 and beyond.
People should read specialist sources of real estate information – like Property Observer – where they can access information and opinions from people with genuine credentials.
4 Look for locations with the right fundamentals. 
It’s no accident that some locations out-perform on capital growth. Areas become hotspots with superior growth for clearly defined reasons. 
Investors might consider why Sydney has had three years of rising prices, while most parts of Australia have been dormant or going backwards. Sydney boomed for specific reasons – and record low interest rates have had little to do with it.
Four years ago New South Wales had one of the weakest economies in Australia. Today it’s the clear No.1, by a considerable margin. Sydney’s boom fed off that.
What changed? In 2011 the worst state government in the history of Australia was tossed out in a landslide election defeat. The new regime started governing to reactivate the state economy. They started spending money on infrastructure around Sydney and today tens of billions of dollars are being poured in roads, rail links and hospitals. It’s had a massive impact.
Another factor is that Sydney had 10 years without any major price growth before 2013. From 2004 to 2012, prices had risen only about 15% - but rents had increased an average 70%. It had become cheaper to own real estate than to rent it. The city was primed for an explosion of buying and price growth.
Many things drive real estate markets but one of the most influential is infrastructure – both existing and new. Areas with good infrastructure – transport links, schools, medical services, jobs nodes – will always be solid performers. Areas with that, plus spending on major new infrastructure, will have additional impetus.
5 Beware the high-rise unit markets.
The greatest danger for investors in 2016 will come from buying real estate in markets that are oversupplied – or heading for surplus.
Primarily that means the high-rise apartment markets, where developers are building towers of units destined for sale to overseas investors. It will lead to rising vacancies and falling rents (leading to falling values) in specific locations.
The danger markets include central Melbourne, central Brisbane, central Perth and the beachside suburbs of the Gold Coast.
For success in 2016, stick to the genuine residential markets. Buy established dwellings in suburban markets – and always check local vacancy rates and also building approval data. A location may have a 2% vacancy rate, but if building approvals doubled in the last 12 months, there may be oversupply in its future.
In simple terms, the best buying in 2016 for future growth will be found in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, parts of Melbourne and selected regional centres, including the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Cairns, Port Macquarie, Newcastle and environs, Albury-Wodonga, Geelong and Bendigo.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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As Sydney’s boom ends, other locations step up: Five tips from Terry Ryder

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The image-makers who groom politicians think we’re simplistic creatures easily led. Primary school mantras like “stop the boats” will get us every time, apparently. Of course, if they were right, no one would ever lose an election. 
Queensland’s Premier Anna Palaszczuk, not the sharpest tool in the political shed, clearly thinks the “jobs, jobs, jobs” song sheet is the best one to sing from. She and her ministers are chanting this mantra in front of cameras every day.
But it doesn’t matter how good the song, if the singer is tone deaf it’s still going to jar with the listener.
So the Premier’s big pitch to justify a mining lease to Indian corporate villain Adani for a mega-billion coal mine - jobs for Queenslanders, jobs for locals, jobs for everyone north of the NSW border - had a hollow sound. You could see in her delivery at the press conference that she didn’t really believe it herself. 
She is no doubt aware of Adani’s track record of being big on rhetoric and small on delivery. Already the company is pulling back from earlier statements about starting work and there is unlikely to be any action in the next 12 months.
The company won’t even make the key investment decision until some time in 2017. It has been unable to find a bank willing to lend for the project and there will continue to environmental opposition and court challenges.
 As one major newspaper commented: “Much is the wailing and gnashing of teeth at the move by the Queensland government to approved the project, but this approval is entirely political. It’s all about the appearance of commitment to jobs – jobs that will never occur unless the coal price doubles.”
If and when the project goes ahead, the modern trend of flying in your workers from distant locations and accommodating them in temporary workers camps will seriously dilute the economic and property market benefits in Central Queensland.
To recap, this week the Queensland Government issued the mining lease Adani needs to proceed with its Carmichael mega coal mine in the Galilee Basin. I’ve seen many different cost estimates for this project, anywhere between $8 billion and $15 billion.
Whichever way you look at it, it’s a massive project. The proponent says there will be 4,875 jobs in building and operating the mine, plus 1,520 jobs in building and operating the rail link to Abbot Point. There will be, allegedly, a $4.1 billion boost to the economy. 
But can we believe the numbers about jobs and economic benefits, and will it make any difference to ailing property markets in Central Queensland?
The mine site is a long way from major population centres. This will be a FIFO operation with temporary accommodation camps set up close to the mine. And we’ve seen what happens to local towns when mining companies bypass the local communities and hire workers from outside the area, flying them in from distant locations.
Moranbah, Gladstone and Emerald are examples. All attracted major development of new dwellings from builders who expected rising demand for local houses and services, not understanding that most would be flying in and staying in camps. Massive oversupply resulted, causing rents and property values to fall. 
The existence of major resources developments puts pressure on local towns, for example its medical services - but they derive few of the benefits because most of the workers don’t live locally and they don’t spend locally. They take their fat pay packets back home, which might be Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, Sydney or Perth.
So the core message is that there will be no property boom, if and when Adani eventually does go ahead with its mega project.
And, in terms of jobs for locals – there will be few, if any.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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No property boom from Queensland's latest FIFO mining project: Terry Ryder 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Are regional cities like Toowoomba about to become hot property? <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828"> </a>
Australian governments have always wanted thriving regional cities, but policy innovations with this goal in mind have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-dangerous-fantasy-diverting-population-growth-to-the-regions-105052">bad history</a>. Planned well, regional cities have huge potential to generate <a href="https://theconversation.com/bust-the-regional-city-myths-and-look-beyond-the-big-5-for-a-378b-return-79760">national economic growth</a> while improving <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-average-regional-city-resident-lacks-good-access-to-two-thirds-of-community-services-and-liveability-suffers-131910">livability and sustainable development</a>.
Governments want strong economies, diverse job opportunities and growing populations in regional cities. The Commonwealth’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/city-deals/index.aspx">City Deals</a> and <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/smart-cities/plan/index.aspx">Smart Cities Plan</a> have recently renewed focus on these priorities.
 
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-dangerous-fantasy-diverting-population-growth-to-the-regions-105052">main policy problem</a> for regional cities has been creating enough employment opportunities to attract residents from capital cities. Unexpectedly, the COVID-driven trend towards <a href="https://www.remoteyear.com/blog/what-is-remote-work">remote working</a> may have delivered a solution.
Suddenly, the potential of digital technology for working remotely is being embraced. Many people could live in regional cities while working remotely for employers elsewhere. If this trend continues, regionalism could well become the newest phase of Australian urbanism.
An urban country dominated by capitals
An urban country emerged from <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/urban-history/article/abs/australian-urban-history-a-progress-report/3740C0E5729075AB694AA58F4B81C895">as early as the 19th century</a> as modern Australia took shape. Almost 90% of Australians now live in cities, making us one of the most urbanised countries in the world. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7ESnapshot%20of%20Australia,%202016%7E2">More than two-thirds are in the capital cities</a>; relatively few live in regional cities.
The east coast capitals developed first. Other capitals followed, along with industrial cities like Newcastle and Geelong. Regional cities grew at different speeds; some have <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballarat">longer histories</a> than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Coast,_Queensland#History">others</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370462/original/file-20201119-21-a8cxhi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/370462/original/file-20201119-21-a8cxhi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Map showing distribution of population centres around Australia"></a>
 Most of Australia’s population is clustered around a few big urban centres. <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/2071.0main+features1132016"> </a>
<hr>
The nationwide shift to suburbia started in the early 20th century and has accelerated since. The “Australian Dream” of owning a free-standing family home in the suburbs remains <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-16/housing-affordability-whats-happening-to-great-australian-dream/8694330?nw=0">dominant</a>. It drives the relentless expansion of outer suburbs, especially around the large capitals.
Decades of constant suburbanisation and expansion of capital cities fuelled the rise of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-cities-and-their-metropolitan-plans-still-seem-to-be-parallel-universes-87603">metropolitan Australia</a>. Here, expanding outer suburbs extend into surrounding hinterlands before eventually connecting with neighbouring cities and towns. Metropolitan Melbourne, Greater Sydney and South-east Queensland are examples.
Urban consolidation, focused on increasing the density of urban cores and inner suburbs, is another recent phase of Australian urbanism. It is <a href="https://theconversation.com/vested-interests-behind-city-shapers-often-subvert-higher-density-policies-74244">promoted</a> as an efficient way to improve the availability and mix of urban housing, while slowing unsustainable sprawl. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/media-picture-of-urban-consolidation-focuses-more-on-a-good-scare-story-than-the-facts-58044">broad uptake</a> of urban consolidation across Australia is one of the main reasons inner-urban living became desirable in recent times.
A common thread through the phases of Australian urbanism is that the overwhelming concentration of people and jobs in capital cities has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-dangerous-fantasy-diverting-population-growth-to-the-regions-105052">difficult to reverse</a>. Until now, migrating to a regional city and bringing your job with you was a distant dream for most workers and policymakers.
Departures and arrivals
Things may be about to change for regional cities. A <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/exodus-from-australian-cities-as-coronavirus-pushes-people-to-the-regions/news-story/09ef690c2847484f7e9777fd1ca5ce43">new trend</a> of people relocating from capital cities to regional areas appears to be gaining momentum.
This new internal migration creates a unique opportunity for governments to grow regional cities and stimulate economies.
Regional cities will <a href="http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Lighting-Up-our-Great-Small-Cities_Report.pdf">benefit from expanding populations</a>. More people will generate new cultural attractions, more social opportunities and greater vibrancy.
City revenues will rise as more taxes and rates start to flow through. Policymakers can then deliver much-needed <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-average-regional-city-resident-lacks-good-access-to-two-thirds-of-community-services-and-liveability-suffers-131910">liveability improvements</a>.
Policy innovations for regional cities should focus on quickly delivering quality housing and social infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. Care must be taken to ensure rapidly rising rents and <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-buildings-high-density-neighbourhoods-make-life-worse-for-the-poor-82070">gentrification</a> don’t displace existing residents. Displacement of regional city residents was a big <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.5172/rsj.19.3.211">problem during the mining boom</a>.
Regionalism also presents opportunities and challenges for the capital cities. <a href="https://info.propertycouncil.com.au/property-australia-blog/office-vacancy-rates-reflect-strong-base-settings">Growing vacancy rates</a> for residential, commercial and retail space could become permanent. Falling populations and fewer workers will hurt some sectors. Sunk investment in infrastructure, including public transport, might be unrecoverable if projected user numbers don’t materialise.
Even if some residents leave capital cities, others will still arrive. There will probably be distinct demographic differences between the two groups. Most of those leaving will be established professionals with occupations they can continue remotely. Most arrivals will likely be interstate and overseas migrants, as well as graduates looking for entry-level professional roles.
For the next few years at least, the option to work regionally for a capital city employer is likely to be negotiated and earned, rather than automatic.
Regional future demands adaptable planning
The coming years will definitely not be business as usual for Australian cities. The rise in remote working will bring <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-has-changed-our-sense-of-place-so-together-we-must-re-imagine-our-cities-137789">transformative changes</a>.
It will not be enough to just plan for growth in regional cities. It is imperative to plan well, plan strategically and plan for the long term.
The move towards regionalism will have financial, social and environmental impacts. Established urban patterns may no longer hold. Policy responses will have to be innovative, flexible and dynamic.
Governments may need to activate special regulatory and legal arrangements to effectively manage trends towards regionalism. The innovative frameworks for regional development in recent <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/city-deals/index.aspx">City Deals</a> are illustrative of new policy approaches to shaping regionalism.
We see a shift in the distribution of some planning and development powers between tiers of government to prioritise certain projects. Changes will have to be justified by economic, environmental or social objectives. Even if necessary, it might cause controversy, upheaval and legal challenges.
Governments will need to be strategic, diplomatic and brave to maximise future opportunities for regional and capital cities. Recognising that regionalism looks like the newest phase of Australian urbanism is a good start.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149170/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tony-matthews-234160">Tony Matthews</a>, Senior Lecturer in Urban and Environmental Planning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/regional-australias-time-has-come-planning-for-growth-is-now-vital-149170">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Regional Australia's boom time has come, planning is vital

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
A housing boom that lasted from the mid-1980s with only minor interruptions has added to rising income inequality in Australia. Yet an impending housing market bust, triggered by the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting spike in unemployment, will not restore greater equality. On the contrary, recent history shows housing busts can worsen inequality.
Those who benefit most from a boom are not those who pay the price when it busts. And those harmed by the boom often become even more vulnerable during the bust.
Our analysis highlights the risks for people who bought their first home at the peak of the boom. We estimate 24,000 households are at very high risk because they took out large loans that might soon exceed their home value and also work in sectors with high job losses. Another 135,200 are at high risk and 121,000 are at moderate risk.
Coronavirus has set up a housing bust
Experts have long cited an upsurge in unemployment as the main threat to house price growth. This risk became reality with the coronavirus pandemic. Over the seven weeks from mid-March to early May, jobs fell by 7.3%.
Unless employment rapidly recovers, the housing market is facing a major downturn. In one worst-case scenario released by the Commonwealth Bank, house prices could fall by up to 32%  over the next two years.
Recent first-time buyers are most vulnerable
Households that can hold on to their homes and weather the storm until the market recovers are not substantially harmed. Established owners, who bought their homes before or early in the boom years, have enjoyed the largest increase in their home values, and the largest reductions in their debt. This puts them in a position of relative resilience to a housing market bust.
In contrast, evidence from the 2008 housing crisis in the United States shows which households are most at risk. These were households that bought their first home with no deposit, or a very low one, in the period leading up to the 2008 crash. The crash left these households “underwater”, trapped with an asset worth less than their mortgage debt. Many defaulted on their mortgages, fuelling the housing market’s downward spiral.
The Australian housing market and financial institutions differ from those in the United States in 2008 in fundamental ways. Still, Australian households that bought their houses at the peak of the boom and have now lost their jobs in the coronavirus pandemic are facing the highest risk.
These include 24,000 recent (2014-5 to 2017-18) first home buyers who borrowed over 80% of the value of their home and were employed in industries where jobs have now collapsed. Another 135,200 recent first home buyers with high loan-to-valuation ratios are also at risk of going “underwater”, with homes worth less than their debt. Many of them are also in precarious employment, irrespective of the pandemic. (These figures do not include first home buyers in 2018-19, for which data are not yet available.)
Renters’ relief could be short-lived
Many private renters hope a housing downturn will translate into lower rents and perhaps give them a chance to buy their first home in a more affordable market. However, this is not always the case in a downturn. In the US from 2007 to 2009, despite declining house prices, rental affordability stress has only increased.
In Australia, the sudden decline in international students and short-term rentals has increased long-term rental vacancies in some areas. Reports suggest rents are going down, especially at the upper end of some rental markets.
However, in the longer run, the slowdown in housing construction will create supply shortages, leaving rental vacancies low and rents high. Many landlords, mostly “mum and dad” investors, have taken large loans to finance their property investment. They will need to keep rents high to hold on to their investment properties.
Lower house prices will enable some households to become home owners for the first time, after being locked out of the market during the boom years. These households could benefit from a coronavirus housing bust if the market then recovers. Even so, their gains will do little to change the overall trend of rising inequality made worse by the housing downturn.
We need to flatten out booms and busts
Improved housing affordability is necessary to reduce social and economic inequality. A housing downturn will reduce house prices. But this downturn, when coupled with rising unemployment, will not deliver greater equality, especially if it’s followed by yet another boom.
Australia has flattened the curve of COVID-19 infections. To be successful in reducing inequality, we need to flatten the curve of both booms and busts in the housing market cycle. And only a thorough overhaul of national housing policy will achieve that.
Ilan Wiesel is a Senior Lecturer in Urban Geography at the University of Melbourne
Liss Ralston is an Urban Statistician at the Centre for Urban Transitions - Swinburne University of Technology
Wendy Stone is an Associate Professor at the Centre for Urban Transitions, and the Director of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute at the Swinburne University of Technology
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