Price Recovery

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October out today confirm a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values over the month, delivering the fourth straight month of rising values.  
The October result was the largest month-on-month gain in the national index since May 2015.
The recent gains come after a broad-based decline in housing values, with the national index declining 8.4% between October 2017 and June 2019.  
The positive October result takes national dwelling values 2.9% off their June 2019 floor, however values remain 5.7% below their peak, highlighting that despite the recent gains, home values are at a similar level to where they were three years ago.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/index_results_as_at_20191031.png" width="600" height="283">
The strongest growth conditions continue to be centered in Melbourne and Sydney, however dwelling values trended higher across most of the capital cities as lower mortgage rates and improved credit availability spurred on buyer demand.  
Dwelling values were up across every capital city apart from Perth over the month, and based on the rolling three-month change, the only capitals where values fell were Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-1.2%).  
The stronger rebound in Melbourne and Sydney can be attributed to a blend of factors; tighter labour market conditions and stronger population growth relative to the other capitals, coupled with the stimulatory effect of the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950’s, and improved access to credit.  
Stamp duty exemptions for first home buyers purchasing under specific price points have added additional stimulus to housing demand.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/change_since_peak_20191031.png" width="600" height="473">
The recovery trend in Melbourne overtook Sydney in October, with dwelling values surging 2.3% higher over the month; the largest month-on-month gain since November 2009.  
Melbourne housing values have recovered 6.0% since moving through a trough in May 2019, while Sydney values are up 5.3% since the recent May low. The smaller capitals have delivered a mixed performance, although the general theme is one of improving conditions.  
The rolling three-month change in Brisbane housing values (+1.1%) was the highest since December 2015, Adelaide (+0.1%) posted the strongest rolling quarter since December 2018, while Hobart (+1.0%) and Canberra (+2.4%) recorded the largest three month rise in values since March 2019 and May 2017.  The downwards trend in Perth and Darwin home values has continued, however both markets are showing an improvement in the trend rate of decline.  
The rolling three-month trend in Perth housing values recorded the smallest decline in fourteen months (-1.7%) and Darwin dwelling values posted a rare monthly rise in October.  
Both cities have seen dwelling values consistently trending lower since mid-2014, with Darwin down a cumulative 31% and Perth values 22% lower.  
Perth is now recording the lowest median house value of any capital city ($451,800) and Darwin house values are a close second with a median of $468,300.  
Unsurprisingly, the Northern Territory and Western Australia are also showing the highest proportion of first home buyer activity, with first time buyers not weighed down by negative equity and with the ability to take advantage of very affordable housing in these regions. 
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic Head of Research
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Property values see fourth month of consecutive growth: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With many of Australia’s capital city housing markets posting a gain in values over the past three months, a recovery trend is looking increasingly entrenched… but how long will it take for residential property values to reach a new record high if the current rate of growth continues?
If housing values continue to rise at the same rate recorded over the past three months, national dwelling values could reach a new record high in six months time.
Based on CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, national dwelling values remained 5.7% below their peak at the end of October. With values rising by 2.9% over the past three months (averaging a rise of just under 1% per month), it would take approximately 6 months for housing values to return to their historic high.
Most of Australia’s capital cities have recorded a rise in dwelling values over the past three months, with the only exceptions being Perth and Darwin, where values have been trending lower since mid-2014. While values continue to reduce, housing affordability is continuing to improve and buying opportunities are becoming more plentiful.
The same can’t be said of Hobart and Canberra which are the two capitals where housing values are already at new record highs.
Hobart values recorded only a mild correction of 1.3% from peak to trough, with the market reaching a new record high in October 2019.
Similarly, Canberra housing values recorded a peak to trough decline of only 1.5% during the downturn, and moved through a new record high in September this year.
Across the remaining capital cities, Melbourne is on track to stage a full recovery the earliest. If the current run rate of growth continues, Melbourne’s housing market will recover in January. During the correction, Melbourne housing values fell by 11.1% from peak to trough and remained 5.8% below their peak in October.
Dwelling values across Melbourne’s Inner precinct were only 1.5% below their peak in October, and this subregion is on track set a new valuation benchmark by the end of November; the earliest of any of Melbourne’s sub-regions. Despite the earlier recovery period across the Inner precinct of Melbourne, the prestigious Inner East is recording the fastest rate of growth, with values up 8.3% over the past three months and on track for a recovery within three months.
Brisbane is showing the next fastest recovery time frame; not because values are rising rapidly, but mostly because the correction in values across Brisbane was quite shallow (down 2.9% from peak to trough). The past three months of gains (+1.1% or 0.4% per month) has put Brisbane housing values on a path to recover within the next 4 months.
Sydney’s housing market is on track to post a recovery within six months, or around April next year if the current pace of growth continues. Housing values are trending higher rapidly, up 5.0% over the past three months, however the correction was more substantial across Sydney, with housing values falling by 14.9% from peak to trough. Sydney dwelling values remained 10.4% below their 2017 peak at the end of last month.
The recovery trajectory in Adelaide is looking more drawn out, with values rising at the quarterly rate of only 0.1%. Although housing values are down only 1.2% since peaking, such a sluggish rate of appreciation is likely to see a prolonged recovery phase. Despite what looks to be a long recovery period, two of Adelaide’s sub-regions have already reached new record housing values. Both the North and South of Adelaide posted a new record high for housing values in October this year.
A recovery in the housing market should help to provide some support for Australian economic conditions, boosting household wealth which will potentially lead to improved confidence and a greater willingness from households to spend, while also supporting the residential building and development sector where dwelling approvals have tanked.
On the flipside, for non-home owners, a recovery in housing values implies the affordability dividends provided by the recent housing downturn are now a thing of the past. With housing values rising rapidly in some areas, we could see less first home buyer participation in the market as affordability pressures start to dampen activity across this important sector of the market.
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic Head of Research
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How long until housing values reach a new record high? Tim Lawless

<html><body>Melbourne homeowners may need to wait at least two years before the property market shows signs of growth according to Finder, Australia’s most visited comparison site.  In this month’s <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™</a>, all experts surveyed expect a cash rate hold in August (40/40), with the consensus being that no further cuts will be implemented this year. However, more than two-thirds (26, 72%) of experts forecast an increase in 2021 or 2022. Of those who weighed in on property, the majority are pessimistic about Melbourne prices increasing before April 2021 (75%, 18/24), while one-third (29%, 7/24) expect the market to stagnate until 2022 or beyond. <img src="https://mcusercontent.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/04359ef0-2dec-4061-afa3-b17165532308.png" data-imagetype="External"> The outlook is slightly rosier for the Sydney housing market, with 38% of experts (9/24) predicting that house prices will recover before April 2021.  Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said that the unpredictability of COVID-19 has sent ripples of unease through the market. “Both Melbourne and Sydney experienced double-digit growth throughout most of 2019. But widespread unemployment, travel bans and a second virus wave has caused a surge in property vacancies throughout both capitals." “Melbourne’s median house price fell by 3.5% to $881,369 between March and June 2020, and Sydney wasn’t far behind with a 2% drop during this period." “As Sydney teeters on the edge of a second major outbreak, prospects may be equally grim for homeowners here when it comes to the housing market recovery period,” Cooke said.  A surprisingly high percentage of experts and economists (42%, 11) also believe that now is a good time for homeowners to put their property on the market.  Only a quarter of experts (26%, 7) said homeowners should wait for 2 years before selling their property. Cooke said, “It is clear that there is widespread uncertainty in the market as to what prices will be in the near future." “With investors fleeing the market, banks are fighting tooth and nail for owner-occupier customers. It’s the ultimate borrower’s market. If your home loan has a 3 in front of it, you’re paying too much in 2020,” he said. </body></html>

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Melbourne property recovery will be delayed to 2021/2022: Finder.com.au

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Real estate experts from CoreLogic, Macquarie, PieLabs and the Proptech Association of Australia are joining Stone &amp; Chalk for a discussion on the real estate recovery post-COVID.
The virtual event, on Wednesday June 17 at 12pm, is free. 
<div>Chris Rolls from PieLabs, Eliza Owen from CoreLogic and Domonic Thompson from Macquarie will be on the panel.</div>
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<div>They will be discussing what the residential real estate market is going to look like for both tech businesses and agents as we define the 'new normal'.</div>
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<div>The event will be moderated by Kylie Davis, CEO of the Proptech Association of Australia..</div>
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<div>To register, <a href="https://events.humanitix.com/the-proptech-panel-the-post-covid-recovery" target="_blank">click here</a>.</div>
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Expert discussion panel on post-COVID real estate recovery

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recovery in Australian dwelling prices that began in mid-2019 has carried into early 2020, albeit with some moderation in monthly gains from the very strong finish to 2019.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, rose 0.9% in Jan, a touch down on the 1.2% gain in December month and the very strong 2.0% gain in Nov. Annual price growth lifted to 5.2%yr.
Prices nationally have now recovered over two thirds of their 2017-19 correction but are still 3% below their 2017 peak. At the current pace of monthly gains, they should regain that level by mid 2020.
Several factors contributed to the turnaround in 2019 including: reduced uncertainty around housing-related tax policy following the Federal election; 75bps in official rate cuts from the RBA; and some easing in regulatory guidelines around loan serviceability assessments.
All capital cities and regional areas within states recorded gains in Jan with more evidence of price gains starting to show through outside the Sydney and Melbourne markets that have led the cycle.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/4/Dwelling%20Prices%20CL%20JAN.JPG" alt="">
Sydney recorded a 1.1% rise taking annual growth to 7.9%yr. Prices are up 11.2% from their May 2019 low but still 5.4% below their peak in mid-2017. Houses and top and middle tier properties continue to outpace units and lower tier properties although all tiers and segments have seen a moderation in prices gains month to month.
Melbourne recorded a 1.2% rise with prices up 8.2%yr and just 1.2% below their 2017 peak.
Brisbane dwelling prices posted a solid 0.5% rise lifting annual growth to 1.1%yr, a modest pace but with the quarterly pulse in price growth running the strongest in five years.
Across the other capital city markets: Perth posted a 0.1% gain in Dec, essentially holding flat in recent months; Adelaide prices rose 0.2%, annual growth ticking up into slightly positive (+0.4%yr); Hobart recorded a robust 0.9%mth gain to be up 3.1%yr; Canberra recorded a 0.3%mth gain to be up 3.1%yr; and even Darwin posted a slight 0.1%mth gain despite prices still being down materially on a year ago (–8.1%yr).
Note that seasonal fluctuations do affect prices through the Christmas-New Year period, with gains in December and January typically a touch softer than in Nov.
That said, the moderation from the very strong November rise is consistent with our view that gains will moderate as prices in the key Sydney and Melbourne markets start to near previous peaks and affordability constraints re-emerge.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist at Westpac
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Australian dwelling price lift carries into 2020: Matthew Hassan

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Average dwelling values across the country rose 1.1 per cent over December and 2.3 per cent over 2019, according to property data firm CoreLogic.
The jump, led by Sydney narrowly edging out Melbourne again, reflects a four per cent quarterly rise in values, the highest quarterly increase since November 2009.
The 1.1 per cent increase was a slight slowdown from the previous two months where national dwelling values rose 1.7 per cent in November and 1.2 per cent in October.
Sydney led the way again in December, with a 1.7 per cent rise in dwelling values, over Melbourne's 1.4 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/December%20Index.jpg" alt="">
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the slight reduction in dwelling values increases would suggest that the pace of capital gains may have been dampened by higher advertised stock levels or worsening affordability pressures through early summer.
“The positive year-end results mask what has been a year of two distinct halves -we saw capital city dwelling values fall by 3.8% over the first six months of 2019 and then rebound by 7.0% over the second half of the year.
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“The housing value rebound was spurred on by lower mortgage rates, a relaxation in borrower serviceability assessments, improved housing affordability and renewed certainty around property taxation policies post the federal election. 
"Lower advertised stock levels persisted providing additional upwards pressure on prices amidst rising buyer activity.” 
Breaking it down in to houses and apartments, houses drove the value increase in Sydney and Melbourne.
Sydney houses, after <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/107489-sydney-house-values-jump-over-three-percent-in-november-corelogic" target="_blank">recording a three per cent gain in November</a>, saw a two per cent rise in December, where Melbourne, who had a 2.4 per cent gain in November, saw a 1.7 per cent rise in December.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/December%20Quarter%20CoreLogic.jpg" alt="">
 
Hobart house values dropped 0.2 per cent, a stark contrast to unit values which rose 1.9 per cent.
Perth values were steady across houses and units after recording an <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/107487-perth-records-first-monthly-dwelling-price-increases-in-two-years-corelogic" target="_blank">increase last month for the first time in two years</a>.
Apartment gains also slowed a touch, Sydney up one per cent after 1.8 per cent gains in November, and Melbourne's apartment values rose less than one per cent for the first time since prices started bouncing back in July.
Dwelling values at the end of 2019 are 3.1 per cent below their record highs in October 2017.
Sydney and Melbourne recorded the highest annual capital gain, with both cities posting a 5.3 per cent rise in dwelling values over the year.
“A nominal recovery in housing values implies home owners are becoming wealthier, which may also help to support household spending," Tim Lawless added.
"However, the flipside is that housing affordability is set to deteriorate even further as dwelling values outpace growth in household incomes, signaling a set-back for those saving for a deposit.”
Five of the eight capital cities ended the year with price rises.
 
 
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Real estate values up four per cent over December quarter, the biggest quarterly rise since 2009

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The recent trend across the regional markets of Australia has seen a clear improvement in the performance of housing across the major centres adjacent to Sydney and Melbourne, as well as rising values in many of the coastal lifestyle markets, according to the latest CoreLogic home value index for October.
Conversely, the report found drought-affected areas have seen a drop in demand for housing with values falling sharply across many of the rural sub-regions associated with crops and grazing.
Mr Lawless said focusing on housing market conditions across the broad value-based cohorts highlights that the market recovery is being led by the most expensive quarter of the market, although values are also rising across the more affordable strata as well, just not as rapidly.”
"Across the combined capital cities, values within the top quartile were up 5.3% over the three months ending October 2019, while the broad middle of the market was up 2.6% and the lower quartile was up 0.7%."
“These ‘macro’ figures are influenced by stronger housing market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne where housing values are inherently higher, however the trends are reflected at a sub-regional level as well,” Mr Lawless said.
Over the three months ending October 2019, the fastest appreciation in capital city home values has been across the top quartile of Melbourne and Sydney where values were 7.1% and 5.9% higher.
The next best performing sectors were also in Sydney and Melbourne, with the broad ‘middle’ of the market recording a 4.6% rise in Sydney and 4.5% rise in Melbourne.
The lower quartile of Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values were the sectors that recorded the third largest rise over the past three months, up 3.2% across Sydney’s lower quartile and 3.8% higher across Melbourne’s lower quartile.
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Sydney and Melbourne property markets take top three spots in recovery: CoreLogic

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There has been a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values over the month, the fourth straight month of rising values, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October.
The October result was the largest month-on-month gain in the national index since May 2015. The recent gains come after a broad-based decline in housing values, with the national index declining 8.4% between October 2017 and June 2019.
CoreLogic noted that the positive October result takes national dwelling values 2.9% off their June 2019 floor, however values remain 5.7% below their peak, highlighting that despite the recent gains, home values are at a similar level to where they were three years ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/1/CL%20Index%20Results%20OCT.JPG" alt="">
 
The strongest growth conditions continue to be centered in Melbourne and Sydney, however dwelling values trended higher across most of the capital cities.
Dwelling values were up across every capital city apart from Perth over the month, and over the past three months, the only capitals where values fell were Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-1.2%).
According to CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless, the stronger rebound in Melbourne and Sydney can be attributed to a blend of factors; tighter labour market conditions and stronger population growth relative to the other capitals, coupled with the stimulatory effect of the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950’s, and improved access to credit.
He said Stamp duty exemptions for first home buyers purchasing under specific price points have added additional stimulus to housing demand.
Melbourne housing values have recovered 6.0% since moving through a trough in May 2019, while Sydney values are up 5.3% since the recent May low. 
CoreLogic's October report said, "the downwards trend in Perth and Darwin home values has continued, however both markets are showing an improvement in the trend rate of decline."
"Both cities have seen dwelling values consistently trending lower since mid-2014, with Darwin down a cumulative 31% and Perth values 22% lower."
"Perth is now recording the lowest median house value of any capital city ($451,800) and Darwin house values are a close second with a median of $468,300."
"Unsurprisingly, the Northern Territory and Western Australia are also showing the highest proportion of first home buyer activity, with first time buyers not weighed down by negative equity and with the ability to take advantage of very affordable housing in these regions," it concluded.
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Price Recovery

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