Owner Occupiers

<p>Investor lending went up in May, according to the latest monthly data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, but the growth rate was down on the prior wo months.</p>

<p>Strong growth in owner-occupied lending continued with a jump of 0.9 per cent.</p>

<p>Investor lending increased by 0.1 per cent (or $900 million) in May, down on April&#39;s growth rate of 0.3 per cent ($2.1 billion) and March, when it increased by 0.2 per cent ($1.6 billion).</p>

<p><img alt="" height="519" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_housing_charts.jpg" width="1200" /></p>

<p>Westpac had the largest rise in the owner-occupied portfolio to $236.9 billion in May but its investor loan portfolio dipped to $177 billion.</p>

<p>The CBA was the next biggest lender to investors with a $161 billion loan book, the the NAB at $100 billion and ANZ at $87 billion. The largest lender outside the big four was Macquarie at $27 billion and Bendigo &amp; Adelaide Band at $15 billion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3459 project_image_fid=147572]</p>

<p>APRA said &quot;the recent sustained growth in home lending continues to reflect robust borrower demand&quot; underpinned by record-low interest rates, government measures supporting first home buyers (such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), and new home building, as well as an optimistic employment outlook.</p>


APRA figures for May show a slowing in investor borrowing

jchancellor

May sees reduced growth in property investor lending: APRA

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Not since 1998 have banks charged a higher rate for investment property loan as compared to owner-occupiers. You may have seen the news that ANZ have decided to slug heaps of their mortgage clients. Independent of any RBA movement, they are increasing the standard variable rate by 0.27% for investment home loans.</span></p>
<p><span>Unfortunately, CBA today announced the same thing. The interest rate for existing variable investment CBA home loans will rise by 0.27% from August 10th. </span></p>
<p><span>The stance of iChoice is that these tactics are opportunistic, and ANZ &amp; CBA clients should think again. </span></p>
<p><span>The APRA directive is for investment lending growth to be limited by 10%. So the unpublished interest rate discounts offered to us high-end brokers will be stronger for those taking a loan against their home. We have accepted this, in fact since some banks are much more flexible than others (some not discounting at all) the importance of a knowledgeable broker is becoming more apparent.</span></p>
<p><span>So why are ANZ &amp; CBA slugging EXISTING clients, if the APRA directive related only to growth? These questions should be asked. The beauty of some banks is that their home loans, whether for a home or an investment, is actually the same product, so they wont have the ability to pinpoint the investors to discriminately slug them. maybe check your statement and see if the name of your product includes the word ’investment’.</span></p>
<p><span>So will this intervention in market forces negatively affect the run of the property market? Will cashed-up foreigners be laughing as local investors get further priced out? What we do know immediately, is that CBA clients with an Investment Home Loan will be fuming as they watch the news tonight, like ANZ customers were last night!</span></p>
<p><span>iChoice will be emailing our client base with facilities at ANZ and CBA this weekend with our recommendation for next steps.</span></p>
<p><span>Off-the plan buyers know that some banks lend against the valuation at completion (not the LOWER of purchase price and valuation like the nasty banks). I say this because I have heard of many people getting slugged with thousands of dollars of LMI because they just don’t know (do they know that us mortgage advisors are free??). </span></p>
<p><span>Also, Westpac for a limited time are lending 85% with no LMI, for purchases OR refinances but applications must be in by the end of August.</span></p>
<p><span>As usual, Citibank have an 85% no-LMI as their standard, and great fixed rates too.</span></p>
<p><span>As an acclaimed Flame broker, I can often lend 90% with no LMI to doctors, pharmacists, dentists, vets, accountants, barristers and solicitors.</span></p>
<p><em>Jason Khoury is principal, iChoice Mortgage Brokers and can be contacted <a href="mailto:jason=ichoice.com.au@mercurymail.connective.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>. </em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

ANZ and CBA slug their property investor customers: Jason Khoury

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In the December quarter, the gap between rates for investors and owner occupier borrowers widened, with investors now paying 0.21 per cent more on average, RateCity report.</span></p>
<p><span>Despite higher rates for some investors, overall mortgage rates fell for both variable and fixed, with the largest cuts applied to the 3-year fixed rates.</span></p>
<p><span>"Interestingly, fixed rates – including 5-year terms – are more competitive than variable rates on average and the gap is widening, making fixed rates an appealing option for some people now," RateCity money commentator Sally Tindall noted.</span></p>
<p><span>"However, competition in the variable space is driving sharper deals than fixed.</span></p>
<p><span>"For example, variable rates are sitting as low as 3.69 per cent, while one of the lowest 5 year fixed rates is 4.39 per cent," she said.</span></p>
<p><span>She noted home loan rates have gone both up and down in the space of three months.</span></p>
<p><span>The major banks all chose to hike rates by an average of 0.18 percentage points on the back of APRA’s requirement that they hold more capital while competition at the bottom of the market sharpened with around 25 lenders choosing to cut their lowest variable rates to as little as 3.65 per cent. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>"Unsurprisingly, existing mortgage holders primarily missed out on this news as the majority of these cuts were for new customers only.</span></p>
<p><span>"The most dramatic change occurred in investor borrowing where there was a $2.1 billion drop in lending figures in just four months.</span></p>
<p><span>"The falls came on the back of the introduction of higher home loan rates for investors of up to 1.44 percentage points, with around half of the market adopting this two-tiered pricing structure. </span></p>
<p><span>"We expect lenders will continue to tweak their home loan products in the year ahead in an attempt to reduce risk and control investor growth including a continued tightening of LVR requirements."</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><a href="/images/2016/01/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-22%20at%208.55.44%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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Gap between rates for investors and owner occupiers widening: RateCity

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<div class="section">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
<div class="section"> </div>
<div class="section">Australian housing finance approvals were materially weaker than expected in July with much of the detail also on the weak side, investor loans about the only exception.</div>
<div class="section"> </div>
<div class="section">The total number of owner occupier loans fell 4.2 percent, well below the consensus forecast for a 1.5 percent decline.</div>
<div class="section"> </div>
<div class="section"><a href="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.19.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<p><span>Ex refinance the picture was even weaker with a 6.1 percent fall, the largest monthly decline since May last year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.21.26%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.21.26%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Approvals can be choppy month to month but moves tend to be in the ±3 percent range. </span></p>
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<p><span>Our estimates (using ABS seasonal factors) suggest seasonally adjusted owner occupier approvals ex refi were down 3-4 percent in NSW, Vic and Qld with, somewhat surprisingly, WA the only state to record a rise (+2.7 percent/mth). </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.22.28%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.22.28%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Note that the sum of these estimates across the big five states is firmer than the published national number (down about 2 percent rather than 6 percent). </span></p>
<p><span>The value of housing finance approvals to investors rose 0.5 percent, building on a 3.3 percent gain in June to be up 9.2 percent since April. </span></p>
<p><span>The sharp slowdown associated with the tightening in lending criteria and increases in borrowing rates for investor loans late last year has now clearly run its course. </span></p>
<p><span>With loan 'supply' now, arguably, less constrained (particularly given that investor credit growth is tracking at 4.5 percent/yr, well below the regulator's 10 percent ceiling) and some of the uncertainty around potential tax changes easing activity looks to be firming again.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.23.32%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.23.32%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>For the total value of housing finance approvals, the rise in investor loans partially offset the weakness in owner occupiers with the total value ex refi down a milder 2.2 percent/mth. The total value of approvals ex refi is down on a year ago, mainly reflecting last year's pull back in investor loans. </span></p>
<p><span>The July fall in owner occupier approvals is a little puzzling given the May interest rate cut and a range of other indicators suggesting both buyer sentiment and market conditions have firmed somewhat in recent months. </span></p>
<p><span>It may reflect the tail end of earlier weakness (finance approvals tend to respond to rate moves and sentiment shifts with a 2-3mth lag). There may also be some statistical 'noise' in the monthly data.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-12%20at%208.24.38%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Overall, given the better reads coming from other market indicators and the divergence between investor and owner occupier loans we would tend to take the July finance approvals figure with a grain of salt and look to coming months to confirm whether a new weakening is coming through. </span></p>
<p><span><em><span>Matthew Hassan</span> is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></span></p>
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July fall in owner occupier approvals is a little puzzling: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>We’re experiencing unprecedented demand from owner occupiers seeking higher quality one-bedroom apartments, normally the preserve of investors.</p>
<p>These owner occupiers vary from young singles who want to walk to work to downsizers and out of towners wanting a stylish Melbourne pad for regular visits but we’ve found they share a distinct goal – well-considered, larger one-bedroom apartments in unique developments with high levels of amenity and prime locations within Melbourne’s inner ring.</p>
<p>Previously the strongest demand for single bedroom units has been from investors looking for guaranteed returns.  Their requirements are at polar opposites from our owner occupier buyers who seek high levels of design, luxury and amenity both within their apartments and exclusive resident-only facilities.  They regard the higher body corporate fees associated with these amenities as a lifestyle investment that enhances apartment living, rather than a handicap to purchase.</p>
<p> What sets the owner occupier apartments apart from investor grade stock is about far more than square metres of living space and stone benchtops.</p>
<p>A great example is Royal Como, a $100 million luxury residential project at 663 Chapel Street, South Yarra. Our team from Knight Frank project marketing collaborated with Royal Como’s developers and highly-acclaimed Bruce Henderson Architects from the start, working for months to make each of these apartments as liveable as possible.</p>
<p>Knowing what owner occupiers are looking for, the one-bedroom apartments range up to 69 square metres – many with a separate study.  Each and every apartment has been individually designed, ensuring all bedrooms and living spaces have full-width, full-height windows onto the exterior façade, maximising natural light and air as well as outlooks.  The kitchens are large and spacious, with lots of bench space, and living areas are designed for generous living and dining furniture, not just one or the other.  Some one-bedroom apartments have an island bench, usually unheard of in smaller apartments.</p>
<p>Wherever possible we have integrated study desks and included extra storage spaces like linen closets – we’ve made sure every square metre of living space works hard for the occupant. There’s no wasted space in needless passageways.  Balconies are a regular shape and large enough for a table and chairs and air-conditioning condensers are out of the way. </p>
<p>On top of highly-considered apartment design, the Royal Como has a raft of unique attributes which gives it strong appeal to owner occupiers including interiors by award-winning studio, Nexus Designs, featuring Australian Blackbutt timber and alpaca or natural wool carpet, and a natural stone lobby with contemporary art and furniture by leading Australian artists and designers.</p>
<p>Buyers love the fact that if you’re in a one bedroom apartment you can still have 15 friends over for dinner or drinks in the residents’ lounge and dining area – it is an extension of your living area. Plus you can keep fit in the pool, gym and yoga room without leaving your building.  </p>
<p>These buyers know it’s all about quality, not quantity.</p>
<p><em>Richard Drummond is residential director, Knight Frank Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.knightfrank.com.au/residential/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Unprecedented demand from owner occupiers in one bedroom flats: Richard Drummond

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<p>While home value rises have been moderate over recent years outside of Sydney and Melbourne, it provides little comfort for first home buyers in the two largest cities who struggle to compete with those that already own homes.</p>
<div>
<p>In 2008, combined capital city home values fell by -6.1 percent in the space of 9 months. By the end of the year, home values had reached and began to climb thereafter.</p>
<p>The drivers of this growth was largely two forms of stimulus: aggressive interest rate cuts and a boost to the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG). Since the boost to the FHOG was removed and many of the existing grants were removed or scaled back, first home buyers have continued to languish at near record low levels. The harsh reality is that first home buyers are struggling to compete with those who already own a home or who are investing.</p>
<p>The first chart highlights the increase in home values across each capital city from December 2008 to April 2016. Another way to think about this is that if in December 2008 you owned a home worth $500,000 it is now worth $758,418 which is $258,418 more than in December 2008. Looking at this same calculation across each capital city, the increases in value over that time based on a $500,000 home owned in December 2008 are: Sydney ($400,825), Melbourne ($338,866), Brisbane ($73,417), Adelaide ($81,029), Perth ($64,096), Hobart ($11,263), Darwin ($109,293) and Canberra ($126,262).</p>
<h3>Cumulative change in home values<br>December 2008 to April 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While the value of a home owner’s property has undergone massive rises, the increase in inflation and wages has been comparatively more sedate.</p>
<h3>Cumulative change in CPI (inflation) <br>December 2008 to March 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Although combined capital city home values have increased by 51.7 percent between December 2008 and April 2016, inflation has increased by a significantly lower 17.1 percent over the period. CPI has increased by a greater amount than values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart indicating ‘real’ home values have fallen. Meanwhile in Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra CPI growth has lagged that of home value growth.</p>
<p>Looking at wages growth between December 2008 and March 2016, it shows that nationally and in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT it has lagged value growth across the capital cities. It should be noted that wages are now growing at the slowest pace in at least 18 years and that the increases highlighted do include strong wage increases in the latter part of the mining boom. Nonetheless, the data highlights that in NSW and Vic wages are increasing at a much slower pace than home values in Sydney and Melbourne are.</p>
<h3>Cumulative change in Wage Price Index<br>December 2008 to March 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The final chart shows the change in the value of new lending (excluding refinances) to investors, owner occupier first home buyers and subsequent buyers between December 2008 and March 2016. The chart highlights how the value of lending to owner occupier first home buyers is now lower than it was in December 2008 across each state and territory. This has occurred despite the increase in home values over the timeframe. While lending to owner occupier first home buyers has fallen, lending to investors and subsequent buyers has increased in most states and territories with substantial rises in NSW and Vic.</p>
<h3>Change in the value of new lending to investors, FHB and subsequent buyers<br>December 2008 vs. March 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While outside of Sydney and Melbourne home values have increased below or at a similar pace to inflation and wages, it is a very different story in the two largest capital cities. Existing owners of homes in Sydney and Melbourne have seen a significant increase in the ‘real’ value of their home. Subsequently those that do not yet own struggle to compete with investors and upgraders that have been so active in the market and already have significant equity.</p>
<p>The simple answer to this problem is that first home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne should look to buy properties outside of these cities however, that may be a little simplistic. Job creation has not been as strong outside of Sydney and Melbourne and for many moving interstate, employment opportunities are generally a big decision. Even buying outside of Sydney in nearby regional cities may not be attractive because transport infrastructure does not provide quick and efficient access to Sydney and Melbourne from nearby regional cities.</p>
<p>We certainly don’t advocate for the return of grants for first home buyers as they have tended to just push up the cost of housing. Prospective first home buyers are facing some tough choices as they compete with other segments of the market who may have larger budgets or a great deal of equity behind them thanks to a history of strong capital gains. Remaining (or joining) the rental market is one option that many may choose, considering weekly rents are down 0.2 percent across the combined capitals.</p>
<p>Those choosing to rent may decide to make their first home purchase an investment property in a location that is more affordable and better suits their budget. For those first home buyers looking to buy their first home to live in, their options will often be limited to the city outskirts if they are to purchase a detached dwelling, or compromising on space to live closer to where they work and play by choosing a higher density option.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.</em></p>
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Investors, owner occupiers making things tough for first home buyers: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>On the last day of the month the Reserve Bank released its </span>Financial Aggregates <span>data for the month of August 2015, which showed another solid month for both housing credit growth (+0.6%) and business credit growth (+0.5%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Over the year housing (+7.5 per cent) and business (+5.3 per cent) credit has helped to take total private sector credit growth to its highest level since 2008 at +6.3 per cent.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Business credit grows</span></strong></p>
<div>Total business credit outstanding ticked up to above $800 billion, having recovered steadily since the financial crisis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Annual credit growth for the business sector increased at its strongest annual pace since February 2009, with Westpac forecasting further moderate gains in the months ahead.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor loans slowed</span></strong><br><br><div>There has evidently been a little innocent jiggery-pokery by Australia's major lenders when it comes to the splitting of investor and owner-occupier credit.</div>
<br><div>As you can see in the chart below, last month it transpired that tens of billions of dollars of credit had been misreported as owner-occupier credit, when in fact in related to investment housing.<br><br>The direction of the misstatement can hardly come as a shock.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result the share of outstanding credit for investment housing is materially higher than previously had been thought (or at least, reported - I expect few market participants would be surprised).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the slow drip of measures taken to douse investor credit first became a trickle and now it is a flow, and it appears that APRA's intervention has now taken the sting right out of the investment lending sector, with some lenders having put the kibosh on new investment loans altogether.<br><br>You can see the impact of the restatement and then APRA's macroprudential measures in the red line below, with the total stock of outstanding credit not rising on a seasonally adjusted basis this month for the first time since 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Overall this is a healthy move for the market, which was at risk of becoming too "top heavy" with investors.<br><br>Although there is no oversupply of dwellings in aggregate, there clearly were too many investors piling into the market which had helped to slow rental growth to a 20 year low.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The return of owner-occupiers</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, it is too simplistic to say that the slowdown in investor lending will automatically put dwelling price growth into reverse gear.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If there is one thing we know about banks in this country it is that they will look to lend against housing where possible, and as such we can expect lenders to push owner-occupier loans ever harder, using enticing mortgage rates of around 4 per cent to in order to expand home loan books.<br><br>The Reserve Bank Governor himself has predicted that more folk will opt to place themselves as "owner-occupiers" in due course. </div>
<br><div>Indeed, while investor credit is now almost certain to fall below APRA's advisory +10 per cent growth threshold over the next few months, owner-occupier credit has already been picking up the slack in rising by rising by +0.6 per cent in August.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a clear pick-up in the pace of owner-occupier credit growth over the past three months, and annualised home lending growth to owner-occupiers has increased to 43 month high at +5.6 per cent.</div>
<div>
<br>In turn this has helped total home lending credit growth rise to +7.5 per cent, which is now a 59 month high.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor share of credit falls</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The restatement of the categorisation of investor loans saw the total share of investor credit blow out to an unprecedented 38.6 per cent last month.</div>
<div>However, with APRA's cooling measures now taking effect the investor share ticked downwards in August for the first time in 30 months, more evidence that the regulatory intervention will have a material impact on the investor sector.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/01/RBA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/01/RBA6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall it was another month of strengthening housing credit, with owner-occupiers increasingly willing to take advantage of record low borrowing rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit growth looks set to fall back to an annual growth rate of below 10 per cent, but in total housing credit is still picking up its pace to multi-year highs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>---</div>
<div> </div>
<div>August was a quieter month for initial capital raised on the Australian Securities Exchange, although there was a strong volume of secondary cap raisings.<br><br>Total capital raised on a rolling annual basis has increased to its highest level since the great flood of recapitalisation over the year to May 2010.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/01/ASX-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/01/ASX-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Owner-occupiers pick up housing market baton: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia released its Financial Aggregates data for January 2016, which showed credit growth of +6.5 percent in the year to January 2016, a steady increase on the +6.1 percent recorded for the year to January 2015.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Total annual housing credit growth has slowed a bit from its recent peak of +7.47 per cent in November 2015 to +7.33 per cent in January 2016, reflecting in part the shift in composition of lending from investors to owner-occupiers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit growth is now well below APRA's arbitrary +10 per cent threshold at just +7.9 per cent and consistently slowing from +11 per cent in June, meaning that theoretically major banks could in due course start to ramp up lending into this sector should they feel the urge to do so. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, any such move would be dependent upon a range of regulatory factors, and whether APRA has the appetite to loosen its throttle.<br><br>Meanwhile owner-occupier annual credit growth recorded another significant jump in surging to a 64 month high of +6.95 per cent, with homebuyers looking to take advantage of attractive mortgage rates.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>Deposit growth seems to present few headaches for banks right now. While term deposits have been understandably less popular in the prevailing low interest rate environment, total deposits with banks have expanded in a robust manner over the year to January. </span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Business credit</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Business credit grew by +6.2 per cent in the year to January 2016, up from +5.5 per cent in the year to January 2015. It is as yet unclear whether this is the end of the uptrend for business lending growth, or a blip in the upwards trajectory. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing credit</span></strong><br><br><span>The chart below shows how lenders in the housing market have conveniently managed to shift almost seamlessly away from investment lending to owner-occupier credit, with a bit of reclassification jiggery-pokery along the way.</span><br><br><span>In fact, the data submitted by lenders makes it look as though the chart has been drawn up on an Etch-A-Sketch.</span>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Total housing credit continued to push beyond $1.53 trillion, growing at an annual pace of +7.33 per cent, although naturally there are marked differences between the states and capital cities, with some faring much better than others.<br><br>There have been a few pro-equities articles today discussing "plummeting" lending and investors "leaving the market in droves".<br><br>That's interesting, but it's not what I'm seeing. Don't forget that housing credit expanding at a pace of +7 per cent implies a doubling in outstanding credit over a decade.<br><br>It's all in the marketing, I guess.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/03/RBA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/03/RBA6.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Credit growth was fairly steady in January, with owner-occupiers continuing to pick up the baton from investors within the housing sector.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A key question going forward will be whether having managed to push investor credit growth below its preferred +10 per cent threshold APRA releases its grip on investor lending at all. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As APRA's data last week showed, the overwhelming majority of property buyers these days have substantial deposits, the question is whether tougher criteria are to be maintained surrounding mortgage serviceability. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another key factor could be movements in the cash rate, with interest rate cuts potentially set to stimulate demand for mortgage borrowing further, although it appears likely that lenders would hold back 10bps to15bps of a prospective 25bps interest rate cut.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Adding to the parts of GDP we already know such as net exports, the Business Indicators released by the ABS this morning including inventories (-0.4), wages (+0.5), and company profits (-2.8), each suggested that headline GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2015 is likely to be weak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>These GDP partials may prove to be another tack in the coffin for the next movement in interest rates being down. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Owner-occupiers lead housing lending: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for July 2015 earlier this week.</span></p>
<p><span>Throughout July, there was $32.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments. This figure was comprised of $19.2 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers and $13.6 billion in commitments to investors. Over the month, the total value of housing finance commitments increased by 1.5% to be 15.0% higher year-on-year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-11.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><span><span>At $19.2 billion, owner occupier housing finance commitments increased by 2.2% over the month and were 13.9% higher year-on-year. Breaking the $19.2 billion into its components: $1.6 billion was for construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion was for the purchase of new dwellings, $6.2 billion was for refinances of established dwellings and $10.2 billion was for the purchase of established dwellings. Over the month, commitments for the construction of dwellings fell -1.5%, purchase of new dwellings rose 8.4%, refinances rose 3.3% and purchase of established dwellings rose 1.5%.  </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Over the past 12 months the refinance segment has been the key driver of growth in the owner occupier lending segment with commitments up 23.7%. In comparison, year-on-year changes have been recorded at -7.6% for construction of dwellings, 15.4% for purchase of new dwellings and 12.6% for purchase of established dwellings. Recently growth in the owner occupier lending segment has been lacklustre, driven largely by refinances however, the 13.9% year-on-year rise in owner occupier housing finance commitments excluding refinances is the largest rise since February 2014.</span></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Chart-21.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Turning to the investment segment of housing finance commitments, this has over recent years been a significant driver of new demand. In July 2015, investor housing finance commitments rose by 0.5% to be 16.5% higher year-on-year. If we look at the $13.6 billion in investment housing commitments across its components, $1.1 billion was for construction of new investment dwellings and $12.5 billion was for established homes. </p>
<p>Over the month, commitments for new construction rose 11.7% compared to a -0.4% fall in commitments for established homes. Year-on-year investor commitments for construction of new dwellings has increased by 81.5% compared to a 12.9% rise in the much larger segment for purchase of established investment homes.  The chart above shows the recent weakness in commitments for established homes and the ongoing rise in commitments for new construction.</p>
<p>It seems that there is a growing appetite for investment in off-the plan investment properties while demand for established investment stock is waning a little.  Despite the monthly rise in demand for investment lending, the rate of growth has started to ease as Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) tweak their lending policies in line with policy updates from APRA aimed at slowing growth in the pace of total investor housing credit.</p>
<p>Housing credit data for July 2015 showed that growth in owner occupier credit is ramping up while investor credit demand is potentially slowing. This release of housing finance data appears to support that notion. The ADIs will be hoping that they can entice additional activity from the owner occupier segment over the coming months as there is likely to be a slowdown in lending to the investment segment.</p>
<p>Housing finance data is continuing to rise however, it appears that growth is starting to tilt away from investors towards the owner occupier segment. Although regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA will be glad to see that exuberance from investment borrowers may be slowing, they will be very keen to monitor and ensure that any pick-up from owner occupier borrowers is not as a result of a relaxing of lending standards.</p>
<p>Both the housing credit and housing finance data will be closely monitored over the coming months in order to see if this transition continues. Specifically we will be watching whether housing credit can continue to increase its rate of growth and if new commitments continue to tilt away from investors towards owner occupiers and what impact that may have on housing finance demand.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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