Office Vacancy

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Office vacancy rates in the Adelaide CBD decreased from 14.7% to 14.2%, led by reductions in both the core and fringe sectors of the Adelaide market, according to the latest report from Herron Todd White.
The valuation firm found, Premium and A grade vacancy has been recorded at 2.6% and 14.3% respectively.
While that 2.6% premium grade vacancy figure seems very low, there is a very limited amount of premium space on offer in the Adelaide CBD so that should be taken into account.
These vacancy figures support the nation-wide push for more efficient and more sustainable office spaces as climate change discussions continue to dominate the political landscape.
As a result of the reducing vacancy rates, office property yields have remained solid, with A grade space in the Adelaide market recording yields of 6% to 8%.
The report authors said, "in comparison, Sydney and Melbourne A grade office properties are fetching 4.5% to 5.5%, however the eastern states are recording higher levels of rental growth compared to the Adelaide market."
"Gross face rents for prime space in the Adelaide office market are currently around $550 per square metre while A grade space is fetching $370 per square metre.
"The latest figures from the PCA have analysts predicting 2% to 2.5% growth for premium space in Adelaide over the next few years. In addition, the current incentive levels for premium and A grade office spaces are expected to decline over the next two years to a level around the 25% to 30% mark."
Sales are down from the record levels set in 2018.
There are however some major offerings currently on the market, notably 25 Grenfell Street (pictured in title), which was listed for sale just two years after being purchased by Credit Suisse for $125 million.
Furthermore, there are some significant developments that will increase the supply side of the office market throughout the second half of 2019.
One such development is GPO Tower, currently under development it will add 24,500 square metres of space to the core market, located at 2-10 Franklin Street.
Upon the project’s completion late this year, major tenant BHP will occupy 40% of the building and the global mining giant’s name will illuminate the Adelaide skyline as they have secured the naming rights of the new office tower as part of the lease agreement.
The BHP lease now takes the committed net lettable area of the building to roughly 90%, as the South Australian Attorney General’s department has pre-committed to a lease of 50%.
The pre-commitment levels mean that although the building is yet to be completed, there will only be roughly 10% or 2,450 square metres of lettable space available when the office building officially opens late this year.
However further additions by way of new development in the Adelaide market will be scarce.
The Festival Plaza development at Station Road, which encompasses over 43,000 square metres of lettable area, is not predicted to reach completion until 2021. Plus 73-85 Pirie Street, the old Planet Nightclub site that has lay dormant since 2004, has only now been granted
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Office vacancy rates down in Adelaide: HTW Commercial

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Melbourne CBD’s office market is on an upswing, with vacancy rate at its lowest in five years, but a pause is likely before the second leg kicks in at the turn of the decade, according to BIS Oxford Economics.
The Victorian capital’s office market posted impressive results through 2016. The CBD vacancy rate fell by 140 bps to 6.4%—its lowest level since 2012—net effective rents increased by 14% and capital values surged almost 20% higher. 
The positive momentum is continuing this year and the trend is far from over, says the forecaster. However, it won’t be all smooth sailing and a looming slowdown in demand lies ahead coinciding with a spike in new supply, it said.
A similar trend was witnessed in the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/69623-melbourne-city-fringe-office-vacancy-rate-declines-colliers?utm_source=Property+Observer+List&amp;utm_campaign=527f4e275a-Commercial_Property_10_May_2017&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-527f4e275a-" target="_blank">city fringe market</a> as well, with vacancy rate dropping to 3.47 percent in March from 4.96 percent in September 2016, according to a separate report by Colliers International.
“This is the lowest vacancy rate that Colliers International has ever recorded for the City Fringe market, and is the outcome of strong demand and very low levels of supply," said the Colliers report.
Last year’s strong run in the CBD market meant average prime net effective rents rose nearly 20% above post-GFC lows, while aggressive yield compression pushed values a 90% higher, said BIS Oxford Economics. That puts average prime values around 50% above pre- GFC peak levels. 
After a high like this, one might expect a muted outlook for the market. But BIS Oxford Economics expects further gains of more than 60% in prime net effective rents and almost 50% growth in values to a peak in the early 2020s. 
However, senior project manager and report author Maria Lee has a caveat.
“It won’t be smooth sailing through the upswing. In particular, Victoria faces several headwinds that are likely to cause economic growth to slow over the next few years, with a negative impact on the demand for office space,” Lee said. 
This slowdown in demand is likely to coincide with a substantial quantum of new supply coming on to the market. 
Six major towers are currently under construction in the CBD, with work on two more likely to begin shortly. These will be completed from the second half of 2018. 
Although substantially pre-committed, there is an as-yet uncommitted component which will result in considerable back-fill space becoming available, according to the forecaster.
The impact of these coming changes to the demand/supply balance would be more like a pause in the upswing rather than an end to the trend. 
“Melbourne retains a key affordability advantage over its northern neighbour and competitor, Sydney. This will help to insulate Melbourne somewhat from the negative impacts of the closure of the Hazelwood power station, the end of car manufacturing and a coming downturn in residential construction. For a national company looking to expand its back-office functions, the scales are tipped in Melbourne’s favour,” Lee said. 
The rental differential with Sydney is only set to increase over the next few years, according to BIS Oxford Economics, with Sydney’s CBD rents set to surge as the vacancy rate gets extremely tight for an extended period. 
Once Victoria has emerged from the challenges of the next few years, BIS Oxford Economics expects that Melbourne’s inherent advantages of plenty of skilled labour, a cheap and plentiful supply of land for residential, industrial and commercial building, and lower rents will come to the fore and support the second leg of the upswing. 
“Any near-term weakness should not discourage market participants from the longer term prize” concludes Lee. 
 
 
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Melbourne’s office market vacancy lowest since 2012, but slowdown likely: BIS Oxford Economics

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The number of full office floors (Premium and A Grade) vacant across Australia’s capital city office markets has dropped over the last 12 months in line with slightly better overall total vacancy figures, according to recent research by Savills Australia.
The overall figures, however, masked a mixed bag of results with Sydney and Melbourne showing the biggest falls and Brisbane with a total office vacancy of 16.9 percent – its worst result in more than 25 years – paradoxically reporting an 11 percent fall in the number of full floors available, while Perth and Adelaide followed the script with rises.
Savills’ Prime Full Floor Availability Report assesses each Premium and A grade building in each city on a floor-by-floor basis highlighting which floors are available for lease, now and in the near future, in each building including those under construction and refurbishment. 
According to Savills national head of Research Tony Crabb, the figures further confirm the recovery in Sydney and Melbourne’s office markets whilst underlining the negative impact the end of the mining investment boom continues to have on the Perth market.
He said Brisbane was at first glance an anomaly, but evidence of an uptick in leasing suggested the figures could be a bellwether for a more positive market there.
Office demand had bounced back over the last 12 months with 117,437 square metres of leasing activity (&gt; 500 square metres) in the Brisbane CBD,  up 27 percent on the 12 months prior, said state director-Office Leasing in Brisbane, John McDonald.
“There’s no doubt that the CBD market has turned the corner and the full floor figures reflect that with 32,000 square metres of prime space being filled this year alone,” said McDonald.
He said competitive rents and incentive packages attracting fringe and suburban tenants to the CBD and state government leases had been key drivers with childcare, health, and education and incubator businesses prominent.
<a href="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%2010.29.37%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/15/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-15%20at%2010.29.37%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Sydney trending well
The 14 per cent decrease to 260 full floors available in Sydney had been expected given the much stronger demand over the last 18 months, said Crabb. In the last 12 months, 38 full floors had either been filled, partially occupied or committed to and it was unlikely the market would see a dramatic fall given backfill space and new developments would add to the numbers.
He said that while the downward trend was positive, it was a timely reminder for larger tenants with looming lease expiries, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.
“What the figures show for tenants is that their options are diminishing. It’s not panic stations just yet but the trend is downward and that means that tenants with lease expiries on the horizon need to do their homework to identify just what is going to be available in their preferred location,’’ he said.
Crabb said in Melbourne the general consensus was that with leasing up 17 percent on last year a recovery was well under way and that Victoria’s strong economic growth, underpinned by rapidly increasing population, would see that trend continue.
The report found 831 full floors were vacant across the Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney CBD office markets in August 2016, down from the 883 floors vacant in August 2015.  
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Full office floor vacancy in capital cities trending down: Savills Australia

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The office vacancy rate on Melbourne’s most famous boulevard, St Kilda Road, has fallen to 7.3 percent, its lowest level in eight years, according to property firm Savills’ latest Fringe Office market research.
The fall in vacancy from 10.8 per cent in July 2013 drove rental growth of 23 percent over the last three years including 12 percent in the last 12 months. The market is so tight that vacant is 38 percent below the average vacancy over the last 25 years. 
Monica Mondkar, manager-Research &amp; Consultancy, said, “Net face rents in July 2013 ranged between $270 and $325, and in July 2016 between $340 and $400. Based on an average rent, that is a 23 percent rise over the last three years.”
Vacancy peaked at 22.4 percent in July 1992 following the Savings and Loan Crisis but has been on a rollercoaster ride ever since.
However, according to Savills associate director-Office Leasing, Kizzy Okoukoni, the latest figure has more to do with the iconic boulevard’s residential makeover than an economic recovery. 
“Ongoing demand for CBD fringe office space is of course a key contributing factor in the tighter vacancy level but the continual withdrawal of stock for other uses, predominantly residential, has also been a significant determinant,’’ Okoukoni said.
Despite residential conversions St Kilda Road is still Australia’s fourth largest non-CBD office market with 686,175 square metres of office space. It has lost less than 1.2 percent of office space to residential use per year over the last 10 years, however, this has accelerated in recent years.
"It’s only a matter of time before the commercial/residential property profile balance in St Kilda Road, which currently has a two thirds office/one third residential mix, shifts permanently to residential.
"For some landlords maintaining an older office building with any vacancy, on top of exorbitant land taxes, is not a long term option.
"There is no way this can stack up when a residential redevelopment can mean such a massive increase in return on the property,’’ Okoukoni said.
Office buildings likely to withstand this change would be the more modern ones with long-term tenants, he added.
But despite the incentive to convert to residential use, office property would always maintain a significant presence on St Kilda Road, he said.
“Residents need services, they need supermarkets, they need childcare, they need restaurants, cafes, accountants, financial planners, gymnasiums, etcetera.”
<a href="/images/2016/08/29/charty.png" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/29/charty.png" alt="">
The total investment sales on St Kilda Road were $246 million with the most notable being AMP Capital’s acquisition of 636 St Kilda Road for $87.5 million and Bayley Stuart Capital’s purchase of 616 St Kilda Road for $40 million. Domestic funds and syndicates accounted for 52 percent of the sales by value.
Mondkar said yields on the boulevard over the 12 months had firmed by 25 basis points and now range from 6.75 to 7 percent. In comparison, in September 2013 yields ranged from 8 to 8.75 percent. 
 
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