Office Market

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There will be no huge spike in office market values in the post-COVID world.
That's the view of NAB's Q3 Commercial Property survey, which is forecasting declines to 2022.
There's only good news for Western Australia in the near term, whose values are forecast to decline -2.4 per cent in the next 12 months.
Then they expect the market to be flat to Q3 22.
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Nationally, NAB expect capital growth in the office market to contract -3 per cent in the next 12 months, driven by VIC (-3.6 per cent), QLD (-3.4 per cent) and NSW (-2.9 per cent).
The SA and NT office market are forecast to fair slightly better over the next year, with declines of -3.2 per cent forecast.
"Property professionals see Office markets remaining “somewhat” over-supplied over the next 1-5 years in all states bar NSW (“neutral” in 5 years)," the reported read.
"The 12-month confidence measure was weakest for Retail (-71) property, followed by Office (-63), with confidence levels in both sectors little changed from the record low levels reported in Q2."
"The 2-year measure was also broadly unchanged at near record lows in both sectors (Retail -47; Office -40)."
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The national office vacancy rate lifted to a two and a half year high of nine per cent in Q3, up from 8.5 per cent in Q2, primarily driven by an increase in QLD (11.8%). 
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Overall vacancy is expected to climb further to around 10% in the next 1-2 years, with increases in VIC (around 8.7%), NSW (around 8%) and QLD (around 131⁄2%).
<div class="page" title="Page 2">Unsurprisingly, with many commercial tenants still struggling in a challenging economic environment, the rental outlook remains weak for office property.</div>
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Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to fall -3% in office.
Rental growth is expected to continue falling in over the next 1-2 years, and in all states, with VIC (next 12 months at -4.9%) and QLD and SA/NT (in 2 years at -3.5%) under most pressure in office markets.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Slow return to normal for office values, with WA the best performer: NAB

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Premium flexible office space provider Work Club Global is set to open its first Brisbane site, its sixth nationally, in the new retail and commercial zone, Breakfast Creek Lifestyle Precinct.
They've signed on to a 10 year lease for 1,600 sqm in the new precinct by developer LSH Property Australia and is set to open in 2021.
Work Club Global provide premium flexible office space in Sydney’s Barangaroo and Melbourne’s Collins Street.
The likes of Mercedes-Benz Brisbane and Queensland Sotheby’s International Realty are signed up for the new five level 32,710 sqm waterfront precinct.
The multi-award-winning chef Shannon Kellam will also be bringing his new culinary offerings MICA, Lumiere Events and Culinary Studio, and production kitchen The Kneadery, to the precinct.
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Work Club Global founder and chairman Soren Trampedach, says Work Club Global are committed to creating premium flexible work environments and providing experiences that extend well beyond the traditional serviced office.
"We are thrilled to join forces with LSH Property Australia to bring the Work Club Global brand to Brisbane, and to offer businesses access to our best-in-class spaces and experiences.”
 
Over the coming years, LSH Property predict there is likely to be dynamic movement within the serviced office space, and partnering with Work Club Global enables them to provide a first-class flexible offering to Brisbane based businesses of all kinds.
Nicholas Quince, chief financial officer and director at LSH Property Australia, said, “Our vision for Breakfast Creek Lifestyle Precinct is to create the very best in experience, and this extends to the business community." 
 
 
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Work Club Global to open first Brisbane site at new Breakfast Creek Lifestyle Precinct

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The total vacant space available for occupancy in Melbourne's CBD office market will be nearly 235,000 square metres over the next three years, however only 32,551 square metres is expected to be available in 2020.
That is according to the Melbourne CBD Office Market 2020 and Beyond report from M3 Property.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/8/5/M3%201.png" alt="">
The bulk – more than 91,000 square metres - will hit the market in 2021, and a further 66,350 square metres will become available in 2022.
The report found that while the market has already been hit hard by the Coronavirus, with many tenants delaying new requirements, it is new development space already under construction that will be the key upward driver of vacancy over the next six months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/8/5/M3%202.png" alt="">
The good news, according to Director Commercial, Gary Longden, is that a potential blowout in backfill space, which may have dramatically amplified the vacancy carnage, now seems likely to have been averted by the extension of the JobKeeper program.
"There seems little doubt that employers would have faced the unenviable task of letting staff go without JobKeeper support and so the decision to prolong the package is pretty much a game changer, you might say, at least in the short term."
"In terms of vacancy it now seems more likely that we will see a much sharper upward trend over the next two years than we will see this year,'' Mr Longden added.
National Director Research, Amita Mehra, said tenants requiring space in the sub 3000 square metre range looked likely to punch above their weight in terms of their impact on the market's fortunes with the cohort responsible for the majority of tenant enquiries that had been put on hold indefinitely.
"This cohort contributed to a little more than 22 per cent of the total area required, but the indecision in that sector of the market may have a more profound short-term impact than those tenants with larger leasing requirements who, of necessity, need to plan much farther ahead"
"We expect requirements for space less than 3000sqm to be on hold for as much as 12-18 months with a potential increase in the probability of tenants exercising options over their existing leases,'' Ms Mehra said.
The report further found that the Business Services employment category - the second largest occupier of office space in the CBD - had the highest percentage of total jobs lost (7292) and that with current workspace space ratios in that sector at 17.36 square metres, the loss may result in 126,570 square metres of sublease or backfill space.
On the other hand the Finance &amp; Insurance sector has been least affected with no jobs lost for the same March 14 to May 2 period.
Mr Longden said trend unemployment rates across employment categories and their impact on a building's tenancy profile may well have a negative result on building values.
Ms Mehra said m3property's analysis of the Coronavirus's potential impact on the Melbourne CBD vacancy rate had raised three forecast scenarios according to potential variations in tenant demand, net absorption and potential backfill space availability.
"With Scenario 1 - based on current economic and employment forecasts - vacancy would first peak at 6.51% by the end of 2021 and reach a second peak by the end of 2024 at 6.90%."
"Under Scenario 2 – based on the long-term average net absorption – we expect vacancy will rise to 6.73% by the end of 2020 and reach a second peak by the end of 2024 at 7.83%, and under Scenario 3 – based on the previous downturn net absorption averages – we see vacancy continuing to rise from the end of 2020 (7.33%) and reach a peak of 9.50% by the end of 2024,'' she concluded.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Melbourne CBD office market faces uncertain road ahead: M3 Property report

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The office market across was strong last year in both the Sydney CBD and metropolitan centres, however it is too early to predict the impact COVID-19 will have on prices, according to the latest report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“The two main markets in Sydney that we are watching closely this year are the CBD and Parramatta,” the April report said.
“They continue to dominate in terms of demand, supply and infrastructure projects.”
The Sydney CBD vacancy rates recorded by the Property Council of Australia (PCA) in January 2020 were 3.9 percent.
The firm found that tight vacancy kept rentals at record highs, particularly for prime and A grade stock, however agents began reporting softer demand for B through to D grade stock throughout 2019.
New approvals for office accommodation are low across the CBD, with approvals being generally focused on residential and hotel redevelopment rather than traditional office space.
According to the PCA, however, 154,424 square metres of new stock is due to enter the market in 2020 and 96,548 square metres in 2021.
“We continue to note that strong demand from owner-occupiers appears to be propelling this value growth,” the report continued.
The current interest rate environment is fuelling borrowing power and market sentiment across the board.
The current low cost of money combined with the impact of rising rents has seen a significant increase over the past two years in tenants looking to purchase to owneroccupy.
This appears to be a strong driver in increasing capital values as tenants looking to owneroccupy as well as owner-occupiers in general are typically less reliant on potential yields and as such, are more willing to pay a premium to secure the property they desire.
We expect this trend to continue this year and have already witnessed some strong sales in 2020 that would indicate that demand is still there.
Parramatta continues to emerge as the prime commercial precinct of the Sydney metropolitan area, underpinned by a significant investment in infrastructure and the completion of a number of development projects including the Parramatta Light Rail due for completion in 2023, the new Powerhouse Museum, upgrades to Westmead Hospital and Parramatta Square and the upgrades to the M4 Motorway, increasing connectivity and appeal of commercial space within the CBD to the greater Sydney metropolitan area.
“Parramatta remains the best performing metropolitan CBD in the country, with vacancy at 3.2 percent as at January 2020 (source: PCA) and increases in net face rents, primarily driven by low supply additions and the draw of more affordable rentals than the city,” the report said.
While 157,643 square metres is currently under construction and due to come online over the next two years, there is currently 82.27 percent pre-commitment for this space.
Further to this, the lack of new supply of commercial stock within the Sydney CBD has also created an increase in appeal to investors and owner-occupiers from a sales perspective, considering the comparatively lower capital outlay required to enter the market, combined with the centralised location of the commercial hub and prevailing low interest rates, making it the next sought after commercial centre.
“Given the performance of the locale, lack of stock and the investment in infrastructure, we consider the Parramatta commercial market to generally illustrate a positive outlook moving into 2020 with increases in net face rents, prevailing low vacancy rates and reductions in yields,” the firm concluded.
“We note that the emergence of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global economic growth and the Australian economy.”
“We consider this will have an adverse impact on the Sydney commercial office market in general but that like all markets in Sydney it is too early to tell the impact.”
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney office market still strong but faces tough road ahead: HTW

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A major Townsville commercial office building has been acquired by Independent fund manager Castlerock, in the largest commercial office transaction in Far North Queensland.
The Melbourne-based group secured the State Government tenanted 445 Flinders Street in a deal brokered by Colliers for $92,855,000 million.
The deal represents a yield of 6.9 per cent on the passing income.
Settlement was pushed forward two months to the end of March due to a faster than expected influx of investors targeting long-term sustainable assets with strong and stable leases, according to the agents.
Castlerock director, Adam Bronts, said it was the company’s largest transaction to date and reflected a strategy to start moving into bigger transactions.
The purchase comes 18 months after Castlerock acquired 44 Nelson Street in Mackay for $52.4 million, again in a deal brokered by Colliers.
Both buildings are tenanted long-term by the Queensland Government.
“The purchase of Flinders Street in Townsville is our largest asset acquired to date and confirms our approach to purchasing long-term sustainable assets with long-term government tenants,” said Mr Bronts.
“It is a significant building in the city and a fantastic asset for our investors.”
445 Flinders Street acts as the region’s primary State Government headquarters and is 89 per cent leased to the government until September 2028, with a five-year lease renewal option.
Designed by ML Design, it is classified as an A-grade building comprising 11,383 square metres of floorspace across nine levels and offering the largest column-free floorplates in the local market.
It includes an additional 252 square metres of retail at ground level and three-level podium carpark accommodating 195 parking bays that offer Townsville’s best carparking ratio of 1:60.
It is occupied by the Department of Transport and Main Roads, the Department of Natural Resources and Mines and the Department of Health and Education.
The building also houses the Queensland Government’s North Queensland Recovery Centre, which because of its critical nature, has been highly specified and is able to operate without power or water for up to five days. Designed and built to an Importance Level Four classification, it can operate in the event of a natural disaster.
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Government-occupied Townsville office building sold in record deal

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The owners of three adjoining Melbourne commercial buildings have opted to take them to the market together following a strong 2019 Melbourne office market.
They have reported $75 million hopes.
They recently received a major planning permit across the combined site which allows for a hotel and mixed-use development project.
The property, comprising around 30,000 sqm of buildable area, is expected to attract the attention of larger domestic and international development groups.
CBRE Melbourne Middle Markets agents Mark Wizel, Josh Rutman, Lewis Tong and Scott Orchard are offering the properties either in one line or separately. 
Hotelier Aziz “Ozzie” Kheir, Prebuilt founder Phil Merton and developer Frank Palazzo did have hotel plans.
The largest of the asset is the former Sands &amp; McDougall building at 355 Spencer Street (pictured above). 
The historic 7,363sqm corner office building once housed Melbourne’s leading printing and publishing firm for well over a century.
Sands &amp; McDougall was best known for its annual Directory of Melbourne publication – a near encyclopaedic book that captured the identity and address of every business in Melbourne – which ran from 1862 to 1974. The company’s main printing house was located within the building and the proud horse logo still adorns the façade. 
Mark Wizel said the repositioning and rejuvenation of older character buildings has become extremely lucrative in recent years, and this asset is perfectly placed to capture unsatisfied tenant demand for unique, but well-located, accommodation.
“With office vacancy at record lows and the residential market also showing strong signs of recovery, there’s little wonder why investors are showing such strong appetite for buildings in and around the Melbourne CBD,” Wizel added.
In a similar transaction of a heritage building in late 2019, 22 William Street, known as Swann House, sold for $52,000,000 which will see the buyer embark on a refurbishment program, targeting rents of over $700/sqm.
 
 
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Three adjoining Melbourne office buildings to attract investors and occupiers

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Specialist leasing agency Cadigal has formed a joint venture partnership with flexible workspace marketplace Rubberdesk.
The duo have announced that Cadigal will provide professional real estate expertise and access to industry relationships with Rubberdesk delivering advanced marketplace technology and an experienced customer care team.
Cadigal has also invested in the Rubberdesk business acquiring a stake in the proptech company and cementing its commitment to technology in the rapidly growing flexible and coworking space market.
“Our national partnership with Rubberdesk enables Cadigal to remain focussed on direct leasing activities, while supporting Rubberdesk’s growth in the flexible space marketplace. We will benefit from the learnings and insights derived from the flexible space market. This brings us closer to growing businesses that will seek to directly lease space in the future,” Mr Mark Tindale, Director of Cadigal said.
“The major coworking operators have delivered on pent-up demand for flexible office space. Led by WeWork and a cohort of other providers, they have successfully introduced a new look and feel for next generation office space with shared services and a sense of community. Customer service has also been elevated to a new level, with concierge staff and regular event programming” Mr Tindale said.
Rubberdesk’s Australian flexible workspace market currently has an estimated 106,000 square metres of available office space, representing 4.8 per cent of the nation’s total vacant office space.
Rubberdesk tripled its listings last year with bookings growing by 650 per cent during the same period. It currently has some 2,500 listings Australia-wide and exclusively powers www.commercialrealestate.com.au’s coworking platform.
“Rubberdesk is really the Airbnb of flexible office space, providing a full service online platform for organisations to list spare space and for businesses to find it. Our success has been driven by a combination of tightly-held office markets and a groundswell of businesses seeking quality premises on flexible terms. Rubberdesk is the only flex space platform to manage payments and licence agreements where needed, making the whole process easy,” said Mr Jim Groves, co-founder and CEO of Rubberdesk.
According to Mr Groves, Rubberdesk‘s clients include private businesses with surplus office space as well as major global and domestic coworking operators such as WeWork, Hub Australia and Workspace 365.
Rubberdesk’s customers include major corporates looking for off-site locations for special projects, growing businesses looking for flexibility, and freelancers looking to connect into a workplace community. 
Three quarters of Rubberdesk bookings are for private offices where the average occupancy is for six people. Rates vary based on location and provider, with the national average $741 per person per month and Sydney CBD rates at around $941 per person per month.
Flexible space and coworking currently represents around three per cent of commercial office stock nationally, and the due expects this to increase towards seven per cent over the coming years.
 
 
 
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Cadigan and Rubberdesk form joint venture partnership

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Nine markets, the most recent being Sydney, Lismore and the Gold Coast have all reached the peak of the office market, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White latest report.
In their December National Property Clock for the office market, Herron Todd White found Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, South East NSW and the Sunshine Coast have been at the peak of the office market at least a month now.
The Illawarra office market has begun approaching it's peak as well.
Brisbane is now classified as a rising market, joining Ballarat.
Office markets that are just beginning their recovery this month Geelong and Newcastle who have joined that likes of Adelaide and Canberra, markets where a recovery as already begun.
Three capital cities remained in a bottom of the market position, Darwin, Perth and Hobart.
They are joined by Cairns, Launceston, Mackay, and Townsville, among others.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Office%20Clock%20Decembe%202019.JPG" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Office%20Clock%20Decembe%202019.JPG" alt="">
Alice Springs and Ecucha have continued to decline while the Mid North Coast is still at the beginning of its fall.
Rockhampton has joined Gladstone and South West WA as they approach the bottom of the market.
"It should come as no surprise that there was a mixed bag of results for the office market in 2019," the HTW report noted.
"Many big-city investors were looking to shore up cash flow by concentrating on commercial stock, which led to incredibly strong prices, but in less-populated areas, the outcomes were a bit more subdued."
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Sydney joins Melbourne as a peak office property market: HTW December Office Clock

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Hotelier Sam Arnaout has sold his King Street, Sydney CBD building for $23.5 million.
It's believed to have been bought by a luxury retailer who had his eye on a heritage building.
Bidding opened at $18 million, with nine bids driving the price to $23.5 million, when it was knocked down by auctioneer Damien Cooley, reportedly to the luxury watch boutique Swiss Concept owner.
The freehold property, marketed as the perfect office HQ by Colliers International agents Miron Solomons and Harry Bui in conjunction with Savills agent Jordan Lee.
Hermes, Louis Vuitton, Dior, Cartier, Boss, Bally, Tiffany &amp; Co, Bulgari, Frank Muller, Chopard, Zegna all neighbour the property.
The 1887-built heritage-listed property spans six levels with a 310 sqm area. It was designed by architects Sheering &amp; Hennessy.
Hermes recently spent $100 million on the nearby 155 King Street.
Miron Solomons of Colliers International said this is a record breaking result for Sydney’s lux hotspot.
“It’s not often that such a high calibre asset goes to auction in the Sydney CBD and it was impressive to see the who’s who of Sydney’s property market whipping out their calculators and cheque books."
According to Jordan Lee, of Savills Australia, the on market campaign saw a range of interest from around Australia and across Asia Pacific.
“We had a lot of High Net Worth privates looking for flagship assets and a lot of clients in Asia hoping to secure a flagship presence in the Sydney CBD” he said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

King Street, Sydney CBD building sells for $23.5 million

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SPONSORED POST
According to data from Accru.com, as at the end of May 2019, there are now over 326 ‘unicorn companies’ around the world and since January 2018, 119 new companies have joined the club.  
Unicorn companies are privately owned startups with a valuation of US$1 billion or more. These billion-dollar-babies owe their existence to huge amounts of venture capital.
Topping the 2019 list of Unicorns is China’s Bytedance, an Internet technology company delivering individually tailored news and media content with a $75 billion valuation. Uber is still the world’s second largest unicorn at $72 billion, with Chinese ride hailing competitor Didi Chuxing close behind at $56 billion. The USA still has the most number of unicorns (around half) followed by China with about a third. 
According to Christina Malcolm, Director, <a href="https://www.savills.com.au/services/commercial-leasing/office-leasing.aspx" target="_blank">Office Leasing at Savills Australia</a>, many global businesses, especially tech companies, are choosing to start their empire in a co-working environment, where there is room for expansion, flexible lease terms and competitive rents.
“The Sydney office market is seeing a shift in landlord behaviour – as they become further in tune with what their tenants want and need, offering flexible lease terms, not just in the co-working space but also within the REIT portfolio arena to help deal with expansion.” 
Ms Malcolm said today’s office environment needs to cater for this new age of workplace talent.
“Savvy agents and in turn, landlords are educating themselves about attracting Unicorn status groups and offering an office environment that suits these successful start-ups, technology, wellness, flexibility, location – retaining and attracting staff. 
Ms Malcolm said this is not just a CBD based trend, with a number of regional and interstate landlords breaking the mould and focusing on offering their tenants a better work/ life balance, while future proofing their buildings with inviting and flexible turn-key specs and wellness rooms. 
“Many new tenants are looking for a collaboration culture in their workplace with plenty of amenities and facilities that will keep their employees happy.
“The tenant community is definitely influencing the market,” she continued, “These companies are our future so they have to be aligned with the forward thinking landlord. 
“In a way, landlords are becoming more Chameleon-esque to fit in with the ever changing workplace terrain.
“Buildings are maturing, growing up. In years gone by they would cry (set off alarms) when things were wrong and it was up to the building‘s guardian (building managers) to work out what was wrong. Much like a toddler, buildings were incapable of explaining why they were crying. 
“But now buildings are young adults. Current buildings are akin to Unicorns’ favoured Gen I employees. They are smart, connected, able to communicate, not just advise what is wrong, but also how to fix it, they take the initiative and in some cases fix themselves. They even help write apps to make life easier, they let you, the user, bring your own device and hook it up to access its amenities like lifts, parking, meeting rooms, wellness spaces and end of trip facilities.
“Building owners are using this new found maturity and teaching their buildings to think for themselves by adding Integrated Communication Networks (ICNs) which are only limited by future technological advances”. 
These networks will allow buildings to grow as technology grows and is evidenced by Dexus’ investment in the Skynet platform and Investa’s work with Willow on its digital twin initiatives. 
With long-term retention of assets and tenants being their goal, the introduction of these systems improves the maintainability of the buildings and more importantly, provides options for the tenants to better connect with, customise and more efficiently utilise the building and its amenities.
Savills is a leading global real estate service provider offering the full spectrum of services from strategic advice to managing assets and projects and transacting deals. Christina Malcolm is a Director within Savills Office Leasing team. To learn more about Savills, visit <a href="http://www.savills.com.au/" target="_blank">savills.com.au</a>.
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