Mortgage Arrears

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Australia's 30+ day mortgage arrears will rise in the second quarter of the 2021 after only a small rise in the last quarter of 2020 as expected, Fitch Ratings says in a report.

Fitch expects losses to stay low due to the recovery in home prices.

The 30+ day arrears in 4Q20 rose by 2bp to 1.01% from the previous quarter, as borrowers struggling with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued to take up payment deferrals offered by Australian lenders. 

The agency reported it does not expect the Dinkum RMBS index to "increase significantly" until the payment deferral periods ends on 31 March 2021.

The banking regulator has advised that deferrals do not need to be treated as arrears. 

Dinkum transactions had 1.7% of borrowers under payment deferrals at end-4Q20, 310bp lower than the previous quarter. 

Conditional prepayment rates for transactions issued by non-bank lenders have recently increased to 23%, significantly above those issued by banks, likely due to borrowers refinancing to take advantage of low fixed-interest rates offered by some banks.

Fitch expects prices to continue rising, supported by record low mortgage rates, along with a lower supply of housing stock and government incentives for housing, particularly for first-home buyers.

Losses in RMBS transactions from the sale of collateral property were the lowest in the last decade, with lenders' mortgage insurance payments and excess spread being sufficient to cover principal shortfalls in all transactions during the quarter. 

Fitch's Dinkum RMBS Index tracks arrears and performance of mortgages underlying public Australian prime RMBS.
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The growth in arrears isn't due until the second quarter of the 2020-2021 financial year

jchancellor

Arrears will stay low in mid-2021 given home price rises: Fitch

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<div>Another data series suggesting that 30-60 day arrears are now very close to the lowest level on record.</div>
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<div>First it was <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/12/arrears-down-again" target="_blank">S&amp;P Global</a> that reported as such, as I charted at the attached link. </div>
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<div>And this time, it's Moody's.</div>
 
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zDA0uid4qrw/WlxunAW2WVI/AAAAAAAAn7o/nNM0owABILQ81EpoWGwXoqVbINf1otG0wCLcBGAs/s1600/Moody%2527s.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zDA0uid4qrw/WlxunAW2WVI/AAAAAAAAn7o/nNM0owABILQ81EpoWGwXoqVbINf1otG0wCLcBGAs/s640/Moody%2527s.jpg" width="640" height="310" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
Source: Moody's
<div>Total 90+ day Prime RMBS arrears declined from 1.62 per cent to 1.54 per cent in the September quarter, according to Moody's Investor Service. The main improvement was seen in shadow lenders, with delinquencies declining from 2.85 per cent to 2.59 per cent, which there was also a solid decline in non-confirming loan arrears to 3.3 per cent. Elsewhere it was reported that loan impairment charges were also close to record lows in 2017. </div>
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<div>Good to see. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage arrears down again, including shadow lenders: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Commonwealth Bank reported a much lower home loan arrears profile as compared to many of its peers today.
144,000 borrowers opted to take mortgage holidays, according to the trading update, equating to $50 billion in mortgage balances. 
S&amp;P Global also reported that Prime SPIN mortgage arrears were flat in March 2020, with 30-day arrears unchanged at 1.41 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_45Io7Peg6E/XrumPFDZniI/AAAAAAAA1to/N14QcbHAMyQsttMIO1EJCxl4KT7jl4fRwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S1.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1380">
There were minor increases in mortgage arrears in the most populous states, but these were offset by a decline in the Australian Capital Territory, where 30-plus day arrears declined to just 1.04 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IliIkf5vbLk/XrumPFe-0CI/AAAAAAAA1tk/tzLdj1PwqFYwBFikyIgD8Ho5pgy-AITyQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S2.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1425">
Total 30-day arrears were higher for owner-occupiers, increasing to 1.73 per cent, but remained lower for investors at 1.46 per cent. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LpY-SE5SvNY/XrumPGtcbJI/AAAAAAAA1ts/OZWsiORV0ZUqfj4u_z440KBK0h9boHKUACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/S3.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1389">
These figures only run to the end of March, so expect to see more signs of duress in the figures in the coming months. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Mortgage arrears remaining flat: Pete Wargent

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Australian prime home-loan arrears fell in October, according to S&amp;P Global Ratings' recently published RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia.

The Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages decreased to 1.07% in October from 1.12% a month earlier.

The SPIN for Australian nonconforming mortgages also dropped in October, falling to 3.22% from 3.36% the previous month.

Low interest rates and competitive refinancing conditions are closely correlated with decreasing arrears because they help ease debt-serviceability pressures, S&amp;P advised.

It noted the level of loans under mortgage-deferral arrangements continues to fall as the gradual reopening of state economies enables more borrowers to resume repaying their mortgages.

"We believe mortgage deferral levels began to plateau in November because many arrangements were due to expire in October.

"Borrowers still under mortgage-deferral arrangements beyond October were likely granted an extension by lenders, following an assessment of the borrowers' capacity to resume mortgage repayments.

"The level of loans under mortgage-deferral arrangements after November therefore will provide more meaningful insights into the genuine levels of debt-serviceability pressures in the wake of COVID-19.

"We believe lenders will not want to rush into foreclosure processes at the end of mortgage-relief periods, choosing instead to work with borrowers by restructuring loans and moving them into formal hardship programs."

It expects borrower defaults to increase in 2021, but losses will be tempered by a recovery in property prices and the relatively modest loan-to-value (LTV) ratio profile of the broader RMBS sector and its limited exposure to negative equity and high LTV loans.

S&amp;P Global Ratings does believe there remains a "high degree of uncertainty" about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic.
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Australian prime home-loan arrears fell in October, according to S&P Global Ratings' recently published RMBS Arrears Statistics: Australia

Home loan arrears fall in October

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The amount of residential mortgages nationwide more than 30 days in arrears increased to 1.52 percent in November 2106 from 1.2 percent from November 2015, according to Moody's.
Mortgage delinquencies hit record highs in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory and increased nationwide over the year to November 2016.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-06%20at%201.51.06%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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The report said the ACT had the lowest 30+ delinquency rate (0.91 percent) of any state or territory in Australia in November 2016.
"A high proportion of borrowers in the ACT are employed by the government, which offers more secure and stable employment compared with jobs in the private sector. The ACT accounts for just 2.12 percent of the total loans in the RMBS we rate," it said.
"30+ delinquency rates in the Northern Territory (2.23 percent) and South Australia (2.16 percent) also hit record highs in November 2016.
"Final demand in the Northern Territory contracted 3.8 percent over the year to December 2016, the weakest performance in the country behind Western Australia.
"South Australia's final demand increased 1.3 percent, below the 1.6 percent national average.
"The populations in the Northern Territory and South Australia are both relatively small, and mortgages from this territory and state account for just 0.68% and 4.72 percent of the loans in the RMBS portfolio."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-06%20at%201.55.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Mortgage delinquencies hit record highs in Western Australia, South Australia and Northern Territory: Moody's

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The proportion of Australian residential mortgages more than 30 days in arrears rose to 1.62% in May 2017, the highest rate in five years, according to Moody's Investors Service.
The ratings agency further said that delinquencies would continue to increase through 2017 due to the weak economies of mining-dependent states.
Even on a year-on-year basis, the figure was higher than 1.50% in May 2016.
“We expect delinquencies to continue to increase through the remainder of 2017, as weaker conditions in states reliant on the mining industry, high underemployment, and less favourable housing market and income dynamics will continue to drive the rate higher", says Alena Chen, a Moody's senior analyst.
The mining downturn had dampened growth in resource-reliant states: Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland.
“We expect this situation will weigh on mortgage performance for some time,” added Chen.
Higher delinquencies raise the risk of mortgage defaults and are therefore credit negative for Australian residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), says the latest report titled RMBS - Australia: Mortgage delinquency map: Home loan arrears rise to five-year high.
While mortgage delinquencies rose to record highs in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia, they declined in New South Wales and Victoria, and fell slightly from record high levels in Tasmania.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/19/Moodys1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/19/Moodys1.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/19/Moodys2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/19/Moodys2.png" alt="">
They were also up in Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory over the year to May 2017, Moody’s said.
In a previous assessment, Moody's had said that <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/68389-mortgage-delinquencies-hit-record-highs-in-western-australia-south-australia-and-northern-territory-moody-s" target="_blank">mortgage delinquencies</a> hit record highs in Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory and increased nationwide over the year to November 2016.
"Regions with exposure to the resource and mining sectors dominated the  list of areas with the highest delinquencies in May 2017. Eight of the 10 regions with the highest 30+ delinquency rates were in either Western Australia or Queensland, and many of these regions are exposed to industries directly or indirectly related to mining and resources," said Chen.
The ten regions with the lowest mortgage delinquencies in Australia in May 2017 were all in Sydney and Melbourne, where housing market and economic conditions were the most supportive for mortgage borrowers.
The Western Australian economy is heavily reliant on the resources sector and growth has slowed over the past three years, following the end of the mining boom. 
Western Australia's final demand (a measure of domestic economic growth that excludes exports) fell sharply by 8% over the year to March 2017 owing to lower business investment.
"With Australia's two core housing markets, we note that prices in Sydney and Melbourne rose 12.37% and 15.93% respectively over the year to July 2017, and 11.08% and 11.52% over the year to May 2017. Rising house prices have supported mortgage performance in these states, giving borrowers at risk of, or already in arrears, the option to sell their properties quickly for a good price to repay their loans," says Chen.
"However, as house prices continue rising without a corresponding increase in incomes to pay for the more expensive houses, housing affordability decreases and the risk of delinquencies and defaults rises," adds Chen.
Moody's further noted that Australia's financial regulators have introduced a range of measures to improve the quality of lending, curtail mortgage risk, and reduce overall household debt.
So, while aggregate house prices have continued to rise, other metrics like home sales and sales-to-new-listings ratios are softening, signaling a cooling in the housing market.
Persistently high underemployment will also constrain economic performance and wage growth, adversely affecting mortgage performance.
While Australia's unemployment rate was 5.60% in August 2017 and has remained below 6% since January 2016, its underemployment rate is much higher, averaging 8.57% Australia-wide in August 2017.
Underemployment results in lower income and reduced capacity to make mortgage repayments, increasing the risk of delinquencies and defaults.
 
 
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Australian residential mortgage arrears at 5-year high, will rise further: Moody's

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Recent Macquarie Group updates to clients indicate a continued decline in arrears.
Mortgage arrears figures charted by Macquarie Bank show RMBS arrears at near decade lows across all days in arrears categories.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n2ndcZbNAVA/Wg7pDwx1ycI/AAAAAAAAnEA/lQGvGmAfsA8xOuOWByOVj2RTwZv0a351QCLcBGAs/s640/RMBS.jpg" width="640" height="332" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="1279">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Home loan arrears at near-decade low: Macquarie chart

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Arrears on loans underlying Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions declined nationwide during the third quarter, in line with cyclical expectations, according to a recent report by S&amp;P Global Ratings.
Continued employment growth and low interest rates have kept arrears low in most parts of the country, but there are marked differences in the arrears levels of resource and non-resource states as well as metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, according to the report RMBS Performance Watch: Australia.
RMBS Performance Watch: Australia looks at mortgage arrears across the country, based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian geographical standard classifications.
The 20 worst-performing regions in the country are predominantly in the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of Western Australia and nonmetropolitan Queensland, reflecting the greater impact of the downturn in mining investment in these locations.
The areas with lower arrears are mostly in inner and outer Sydney.
This reflects the correlation between property prices and arrears performance for more seasoned loans, which benefit from the improved equity build up and enhanced refinancing prospects this affords.
Amortizing loans with high levels of seasoning in metropolitan areas are underpinning the solid arrears performance of loans underlying Australian RMBS transactions.
The performance of these loans and ones originated more recently could diverge if interest rates start to rise, however, testing the prudence of lending standards.
We expect arrears performance to remain relatively stable while employment conditions remain stable and unemployment is relatively low.
However, the currently high level of household debt has increased borrowers' sensitivity to future interest rate rises.
We believe this risk is more heightened for higher loan-to-value ratio loans.
This is because there is less equity built up in the underlying property and such borrowers' refinancing prospects are likely to be less favorable, particularly in an environment of tightening lending conditions.
Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) measures the weighted-average arrears more than 30 days past due on residential mortgage loans in publicly and privately rated Australian RMBS transactions.
The value of loans underlying Australian RMBS transactions, including noncapital market issuance, was A$128.951 billion.
Click here to download the <a href="https://www.capitaliq.com/ciqdotnet/login-sso.aspx?contextType=external&amp;username=string&amp;enablePersistentLogin=true&amp;OverrideRetryLimit=0&amp;contextValue=%2Foam&amp;password=secure_string&amp;challenge_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.capitaliq.com%2Fciqdotnet%2Flogin-sso.aspx&amp;request_id=8585133767695543534&amp;authn_try_count=0&amp;locale=en_AU&amp;resource_url=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.capitaliq.com%252FCIQDotNet%252FLogin.aspx" target="_blank">full report.</a>
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Mortgage Arrears

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