Moodys

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Housing affordability for new mortgage borrowers in Australia, which improved over the year to March 2019, will continue to improve over the next 12 months, because of declining housing prices, according to Moody's Investor Service.
More affordable housing reduces the credit risks of newly originated mortgages, which is positive for new residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by such loans.
The latest report noted the proportion of household income needed to meet repayments on new Australian mortgages - our measure of housing affordability - declined to an average 26.5% in March 2019, from 28.7% a year earlier.
Affordability improved because housing prices declined, while average incomes also increased modestly. We expect housing prices to continue to decline moderately over the next year, driving further improvements in housing affordability.
It noted that housing affordability improved in most cities. Housing affordability improved in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth over the year to March 2019, but deteriorated in Adelaide. The biggest improvement in housing affordability was in Sydney, where housing prices declined 10.7% over the year to March.
Sydney is the most sensitive to housing price, income and interest rate changes. We tested the impact of changes to housing prices, incomes and interest rates on housing affordability. Of all Australian capital cities,
Sydney is the most sensitive to changes in the three variables.
Housing affordability for new mortgage borrowers in Australia, which improved over the year to March 2019, will continue to improve over the next 12 months, because of declining housing prices.
More affordable housing reduces the credit risks of newly originated mortgages, which is positive for new RMBS backed by such loans.
Over the year to March 2019, the proportion of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments - our measure of housing affordability - declined on average in Australia, driven in large part by declining housing prices.
Australian households with two income earners taking out an 80% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage needed an average 26.5% of their monthly income to meet monthly mortgage repayments in March 2019, down from 28.7% in March 2018 and below the 10-year average of 28.7%.
Median housing prices declined by 6.5% over the year to March 2019, while incomes increased an average 2.8%, improving the affordability of new mortgages. Average headline mortgage interest rates increased slightly to 5.4% in March 2019 from 5.2% a year earlier, but this was outweighed by declining house prices and rising incomes.
We expect housing prices to continue to decline moderately over the next year, reflecting reduced credit supply by the banking sector and a seeming reduction in demand from households.
Accordingly, we expect housing affordability to continue to improve over the next year.
Housing affordability improved in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth over the year to March 2019, but deteriorated in Adelaide.
In Sydney, the proportion of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments declined 4.7 percentage points to 33.2% over the year to March 2019, the biggest improvement of any capital city, though Sydney remains the least affordable city for housing in Australia.
Median housing prices declined 10.7% in Sydney over the year to March 2019. We expect housing prices in Sydney to continue to decline and for housing affordability in the city to continue to improve over the next year.
In Melbourne, the proportion of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments declined to 29.4% in March 2019 from 31.6% a year earlier. Housing prices in Melbourne declined 5.3% over the year to March 2019, while average weekly incomes increased 3.2%. We expect housing prices in Melbourne to continue to decline over the next year, which is positive for housing affordability.
In Brisbane, the proportion of monthly income needed to meet monthly mortgage repayments declined by 1.3 percentage point to 22.5% over the year to March 2019. Housing prices declined 1.2% over the year.
In Perth, the proportion of income needed for mortgage repayments declined, albeit marginally, to 19.4% in March 2019, from 19.7% a year earlier. Perth is the most affordable capital city for housing in Australia.
In Adelaide, the proportion of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments increased moderately by 1.3 percentage point to 23.1% over the year to March 2019. Median housing prices in the city increased 4.6% over the year.
On average across Australia and in each capital city, housing affordability in March 2019 was better than the respective 10-year averages (Exhibit 1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%201%20.jpg" alt=""> 
The affordability of both houses and apartments improved in all cities except Adelaide, where the affordability of both types of dwelling deteriorated over the year to March 2019 (Exhibit 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%202a.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%202b.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%202b.jpg" alt=""> 
Sydney most sensitive to housing price, income and interest rate changes
We tested the impact of changes to housing prices, incomes and interest rates on housing affordability. Of all Australian capital cities, Sydney is the most sensitive to changes in the three variables.
Sensitivity test 1: Housing price changes
Our sensitivity test shows that for every 10% change in housing prices, the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments changes by 2.6 percentage points on average in Australia.
In Sydney, the least affordable city, a 10% change in housing prices results in a 3.3 percentage-point change in the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments, the most of any Australian city.
Exhibit 3 shows the impact on housing affordability of (1) a 10% increase in median housing prices and (2) a 10% decrease in median housing prices.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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Sensitivity test 2: Income changes
Our sensitivity test shows that if average household income decreases by 5%, the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments increases by 1.4 percentage point on average across Australia. If average household income increases by 5%, the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments decreases by 1.3 percentage point.
In Sydney, a 5% decrease in household income results in a 1.7 percentage point increase in the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments, the most of any Australian city. A 5% increase in household income in Sydney results in a 1.6 percentage-point decrease in the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments.
Exhibit 4 shows the impact on housing affordability of (1) a 5% decrease in household income and (2) a 5% increase in household income.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%204.jpg" alt=""> 
Sensitivity test 3: Interest rate changes
Our sensitivity test shows that for every 0.25 percentage point change in mortgage interest rates, the percentage of household income needed to meet mortgage repayments changes by 0.7 percentage point on average across Australia.
In Sydney, a 0.25 percentage point change in interest rates results in a 0.8 percentage point change in the percentage of household income needed to meet repayments, the most of any Australian city.
Exhibit 5 shows the impact on affordability of (1) a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase, (2) a 0.25 percentage point interest rate decrease and (3) mortgage interest rates rising to the 10-year average of 6.1%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
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Housing prices, income and interest rates drive affordability
We measure housing affordability based on three inputs — median housing prices, average household income and standard variable mortgage interest rates (Exhibit 6).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%206.jpg" alt="">
Median housing sales prices decreased
Median housing prices decreased by 6.5% on average across Australia over the year to March 2019 (Exhibit 7). Median prices declined in Sydney (-10.7%), Melbourne (-5.3%), Perth (-5.3%) and Brisbane (-1.2%). Median prices increased in Adelaide (+4.6%).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%207.jpg" alt="">
Household income increased
Average weekly incomes increased moderately by 2.8% on average across Australia over the year to November 2018 (Exhibit 8).2 Incomes increased in all cities except Perth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/15/exhibit%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/15/exhibit%208.jpg" alt=""> 
Alena Chen is Vice President at Moody’s.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Housing affordability rises in Australia as prices continue to fall: Moody's Alena Chen

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House values are to continue to lead the property market downturn in 2019, according to Moody's Analytics.
Across the eight capital cities, house values are set to decline 7.7% in 2019, a sharper correction than apartments which are forecast to see a 4.3% hit.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/9/Moodys1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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House prices have declined over 9% since their peak in late 2017, while apartment values are down around 6% from the peak, according to CoreLogic.
House values in Sydney declined 5.5% in 2018 and are forecast to fall a further 9.3% in 2019. Apartment values are set to decline 5.9% in 2019.
Melbourne's house price decline has been more accelerated than Sydney's, and its sharp downturn is reflected in the forecast for its house values in 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/9/Moodys-Houses.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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Moody's suggest values will decline 11.4% across Great Melbourne, with apartments to fall 5%.
The worst is over for Brisbane, according to Moody's, with house values to see a correction in 2019.
There will be strength in East Brisbane, offset by declines elsewhere.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/9/Moodys-Units.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
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There's also good news for the Brisbane apartment market, Moody's forecast. Values are tipped to recover 0.9% in 2019.
It's not such good news for Perth, where house values are like to decline 7.6% in 2019.
Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run, with house values forecast to rise 1% in 2019 after a 1.9% gain in 2018.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Houses to be hit harder than units in 2019 downturn: Moody's Analytics

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Australian mortgage delinquencies, which increased over the year to November 2018, will continue to increase through 2019, according to Moody's Investors Service latest delinquency report.
"Mortgage delinquencies will continue to increase over 2019, because of high debt levels, subdued wage growth, the conversion of a large number of interest-only mortgages to principal-and-interest loans and declining house prices," says Alena Chen, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst. 
"However, delinquencies will remain low overall, given the rate of economic growth and low unemployment, which will continue to support borrowers' ability to meet their mortgage repayments," says Chen. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/3/moody%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge
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The proportion of Australian residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears increased by 0.13 percentage point to 1.58% over the year to November 2018.
Mortgage delinquencies increased in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, Western Australia, Tasmania, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory over the year to November 2018, but declined in Queensland.
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In NSW, the delinquency rate increased to the highest in five years, though it remains relatively low compared with most other states and territories and NSW's long-term average.
Regions with exposure to the mining sector continued to dominate the list of areas with the highest delinquencies. 
Moody's semi-annual delinquency map report provides a detailed analysis of the rate of residential mortgage arrears at a national, regional and postcode level in Australia. 
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Mortgage delinquencies set to continue rising through 2019: Moody's

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Moody's Investors Service says that the 30-plus day delinquency rate for prime Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) increased in the fourth quarter of 2018.
It tips they will likely continue to rise moderately amid declining house prices, high levels of debt, and the conversion of interest-only mortgages to principle and interest loans. 
The 30-plus day delinquency rate for prime RMBS increased to 1.58% in December 2018 from 1.49% in September 2018.  
The increase was driven in part by declining house prices, with house prices in Australia declining by 6.3% for the 12 months to February 2019, and by 10.4% and 9.1% in Sydney and Melbourne.  
Moody's expects prices will continue to decline moderately through 2019, while record-high household debt – at 191% of annual gross disposable income – will also contribute to a moderate increase in delinquencies.  
"Nevertheless, we expect the increase in mortgage delinquencies to be limited, while defaults and losses will remain low, as continued GDP growth and low unemployment will continue support borrowers' ability to meet mortgage repayments," says Alena Chen, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/22/RMBS%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
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Specifically, Moody's forecasts real GDP growth of around 2.5% in both 2019 and 2020, and for Australia's unemployment rate to remain relatively stable at 5.5% over the same period.  
"Mortgage delinquencies will likely increase over the short term in areas hit by the far north Queensland floods in February 2019, as borrowers may lose income or face costs while dealing with the aftermath of the disaster," adds Chen.  
However, Moody's says this is unlikely to translate into a material increase in defaults, given that insurance payouts, government assistance and financial hardship arrangements entered into with lenders will ease the burden on borrowers.
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Australian RMBS delinquencies to rise as house prices fall: Moody's

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Moody's Investors Service says that mortgage delinquency rates in Australia will increase moderately through 2019.
It has been broadly stable over the past 12 months. Within the 20 postcodes with the lowest mortgage delinquencies in Australia, eight were in Sydney and seven in Melbourne.
"Softening housing market conditions — particularly in the key states of New South Wales and Victoria — combined with high household leverage, higher interest rates and the conversion of interest-only mortgages to principal and interest repayments, will push up delinquency rates," says Jacqui Dredge, a Moody's Analyst.
"Nevertheless, macroeconomic conditions will remain supportive, such that the increase in delinquencies will prove moderate."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/29/moodys%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
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Moody's analysis is contained in its report on the RMBS mortgage delinquency market,
The proportion of Australian residential mortgages that were more than 30 days in arrears registered 1.58% in May 2018 compared with 1.62% in May 2017.<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/29/moodys%202.jpg" target="_blank"> </a>
Delinquencies fell moderately in all states except New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) over the year to May 2018.
Moody's report also says that Western Australia and Queensland dominate the list of worst performing regions.
Specifically, seven of the 10 regions with the highest 30-plus delinquency rates in May 2018 were in either Western Australia or Queensland, impacted by the after-effects of the mining boom unwinding.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/29/moodys%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge
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Home loan arrears to rise moderately in 2019: Moody's

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Mortgage delinquencies and defaults are more likely to occur in outer suburbs of Australian cities than inner-city areas, according to Moody's Investor Service.
They suggest that this is because of the lower average incomes and weaker credit characteristics in these suburbs.
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On average across Australian cities, mortgage delinquency rates are lowest in areas within five kilometres of the CBD and highest in areas 30-40 kilometres from CBDs (below).
Moody's suggest this trend is likely to continue into the foreseeable future with little changing in way of incomes and credit characteristics.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/Moodys1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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In most Australian capital cities, delinquency rates are highest in areas the furthest away from the CBD (below).
Sydney's delinquency rates grow steadily the further away from the CBD the property is, however in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, delinquency rates in suburbs closest to the city centre are slightly higher than those a little further out.
This is due to the high share of mortgages on investment properties in areas closest to the city.
Within five kilometres of the Melbourne CBD, delinquent investment loans account for 57% of all mortgage delinquencies.
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Incomes and socioeconomic conditions are lower in outer suburbs, while credit characteristics are weaker.
Average incomes are lower in outer suburbs than in inner-city areas, while socioeconomic conditions are also typically weaker in outer areas. These factors increase the likelihood of mortgage delinquencies and defaults, particularly in the event of an economic downturn. 
In all Australian capital cities, average incomes decline with distance from the CBD (below), a fact that reflects the higher proportion of people employed in low-skilled jobs in these areas.
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Mortgage delinquencies are higher in city's outer suburbs: Moody's

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<div>Moody's Investors Service says that its outlook for the Australian real estate investment trust (A-REIT) industry is stable, except for the retail segment, which faces a challenging operating environment.</div>
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<div>The growth in operating income will remain strong, and they expect aggregate comparable net operating income growth of 3% to 4% for their 16 rated A-REITs during the next 12-18 months</div>
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<div>Moody's Investors Service expect the office segment will see the strongest income growth, followed by industrial and retail.</div>
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<div>Low office vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne make these cities "a landlord's market."</div>
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<div>Moody's forecast for operating income growth of 3%-4% will be driven by low vacancy rates and strong demand on the back of favourable economic conditions.</div>
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<div>GPT Group, Mirvac Group and Dexus have the highest exposure in this segment and will likely record the highest growth over the next 12-18 months.</div>
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<div>Strong demand underpins solid growth in the industrial segment, and Moody's expects operating income growth of about 3%, with Sydney being the strongest market.</div>
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<div>Dexus, Goodman Group, Mirvac, Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership and Stockland Group will be the main beneficiaries according to Moody's analysis.</div>
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<div>Moody's Investors Service stated the retail segment is facing structural challenges on sluggish consumption and online sales growth.</div>
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<div>"Nevertheless, higher quality retail space remains resilient, and Moody's expects operating income growth of 2.0%-2.5%," it noted.</div>
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<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/26/Moodys%20chart.JPG" alt=""></div>
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<div>"Well-located shopping centers that attract a deep pool of potential tenants and are underpinned by non-discretionary spending, or that are destination hubs, will continue to perform well," they added.</div>
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<div>Scentre Group, GPT, Mirvac and Vicinity Centres will benefit from these factors, while other centers, with a high level of discretionary spending exposure, will underperform, based on their latest data.</div>
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Moody's suggest outlook for A-REITs is stable, but retail face challenges

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Australian RMBS delinquency rates will rise moderately over coming quarters, with high debt levels and higher interest rates putting pressure on mortgage borrowers, according to the latest RMBS report from Moody's.
This is despite delinquency rates being broadly stable over the three months ended 30 June 2018.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for prime RMBS was 1.52% in June 2018, compared with 1.5% in March 2018 and 1.6% in June 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/24/RMBS%20Moodys.JPG" alt="">
For prime RMBS issued by major banks, the 30+ day delinquency rate was 1.58% in June 2018 compared with 1.57% in March.
For regional banks, it remained flat at 1.99%, while for prime RMBS issued by other authorised deposit-taking institutions, the delinquency rate was 0.57% in June, compared with 0.51% in March.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for non-conforming RMBS was 3.16% in June 2018, compared with 3.05% in March 2018 and 3.41% in June 2017.
Moody's noted, "over coming quarters, we expect delinquencies to increases moderately, given Australia's record-high household debt, which amounts to 190% of annual gross disposable income."
High debt increases the risk of delinquencies, especially in a rising interest rate environment.
The report stated, "in late August and September, a number of Australia's major banks raised home loan interest rates, though we do not expect this round of rate rises to result in a significant increase in mortgage delinquencies, given that labour market conditions remain favourable and the rate increases were small compared with buffers built into home loan serviceability assessments."
A large number of interest-only mortgages are due to convert to principal and interest loans over the next two years, which will contribute to an increase in delinquencies over this period, according to Moody's data.
Banks originated a significant volume of interest-only loans in 2014 and 2015.
The five year interest-only period for these mortgages will end in 2019 and 2020.
The report also stated, "when interest-only loans convert to principal and interest, borrowers have to make higher monthly repayments, which can lead to delinquencies."
"On the positive side, economic and labour market conditions in Australia will continue to support borrowers’ ability to meet mortgage repayments over the next year, meaning that the increase in delinquencies will be moderate," they suggested.
Moody's forecasts real GDP growth of around 2.9% for calendar 2018 and 3% for 2019.
Australia's unemployment rate was 5.4% in June and we expect it will remain relatively stable at 5.6% by the end of 2018 and 5.5% at the end of 2019
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Australian RMBS home loan delinquencies to rise moderately over 2018: Moody's

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The Australian housing market will continue its downward correction on a national basis through 2018 and most of 2019, according to the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast.
They see trends that will show a degree of diversity at the city and state levels. 
Sydney values, which Moodys predict will fall 5.1 percent this year, will only rise 0.6 percent in 2019.
National values are forecast to fall by 1.6% year on year in 2018, following a 9.5% gain in 2017.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/house-values.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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In the rest of New South Wales outside of Sydney, demand has increased as areas show better affordability.
The Central Coast, which has benefitted from Sydney's soaring house prices, is forecast to escape the correction. 
Moody's sees a 3.6 percent rise in 2018 and eight percent in 2019.
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The growth in house values in Melbourne is forecast to decelerate sharply - after a 12.5% rise in 2017 - to 0.3% in 2018, on the back of declines in inner Melbourne areas. 
Recovery is elusive in the near-term, with Melbourne house values forecast to fall 0.2% in 2019.
House values across Brisbane are forecast to see a mild 1.5% gain in 2018, with strength in West Brisbane and Inner Brisbane offsetting declines in South Brisbane. 
Despite stabilising commodity prices, house values in Perth – whose economy is very much tied to the mining industry -- will likely decline by 1.9% in 2018, followed by a further 0.5% retreat in 2019. However, a slow recovery is likely in 2020 as the local economy improves thanks to population growth.
Meanwhile Adelaide’s housing market will have a stable run, with values forecast to rise 1.5% in 2018, after a 4.9% gain in 2017. Hobart’s housing market is likely at the end of its bull run. 
While values are forecast to rise 11.3% in 2018, they will fall 0.3% in 2019. 
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