Mining Boom

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There are growing reasons for hope and optimism for property investors who bought in resources-related towns at the height of the mining investment boom.
The question I get asked most often is “when will Gladstone recover?” - or similar questions about other resources-impacted regional centres around Australia.
For the past couple of years, the honest answer did not give much cheer to those holding properties worth considerably less than they paid and earning a lot less in rent than before (if a tenant could be found at all).
But now, increasingly, the news is more positive. Many of these places are showing definite signs of recovery and investors can look forward to the prospect of better prices and rentals.
I’m not suggesting anyone should rush out and buy in these places, most of which sit at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum – just that, for those who own property there (it’s amazing how many people do), there is light at the end of a very long tunnel.
In our latest edition of the Price Predictor Index, the number of Regional Queensland locations classified as Danger markets has dropped from a record high of 31 late in 2016 to 19 now. 
Markets showing signs of recovery include Dalby, Emerald, Moranbah, Rockhampton, Mackay and the Whitsundays. 
Mackay is showing quite strong signs of returning to growth, with sales activity up, vacancies down and some evidence of prices rising again. With the Central Queensland mining industry revitalising, Mackay is likely to show some reasonable growth in the next couple of years.
Dalby’s economic and property fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of the coal seam gas industry in the Surat Basin. Right now, its median house price ($255,000) is lower than it was five years ago but likely to recover in the near future.
Quarterly sales in Dalby over the past two years have been 32, 33, 41, 43, 50, 52, 65 and 75, a pattern that confirms the recovery in this market. Vacancies have dropped to around 2%, according to SQM Research.
Some of the worst-affected markets still have high vacancies and falling property values - and should be approached with caution. 
They include Mount Isa and Gladstone. Mount Isa still has eight suburbs classified as Danger markets and Gladstone still has six. Gladstone should improve, as the overall vacancy rate has dropped from a peak of 12% early in 2016 to around 3.5% now - still a little too high, but the trend is encouraging.
Regional areas of WA are nudging towards recovery, notably the resources-related centres in the north of the state.
Karratha and Port Hedland/South Hedland both have sales activity heading in the right direction again, a factor confirmed by our latest survey of sales volumes and also by new figures for the June Quarter from the Real Estate Institute of WA.
At the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland was well above $1 million. 
The latest figures show a median price around $395,000. This is 14% above the level of a year ago, though still well below the peak during the resources boom. 
The median price bottomed out around $350,000 earlier in the year, so there appear to be early signs of growth.
But we continue to urge caution - this kind of volatility is common in resources-related markets and they are not for the faint-hearted.
Similarly, there is a general pattern of growth in the Karratha market - and a similar history with prices.
The Karratha market was achieving only 45-55 sales per quarter in 2015 but in the past six quarters have each topped 80 sales. 
Typical house prices in Karratha are now below $300,000, compared with $700,000 to $800,000 at the peak of the resources investment boom.
Median prices in the Karratha area include $260,000 for Bulgarra (up 13% in the past 12 months but down 40% over 3 years), $345,000 for Nickol (up 28% in 12 months but 20% below the levels of three years ago) and $250,000 for Pegs Creek (up 5% in 12 months but still 42% below the levels of three years ago).
There is even a glimmer of recovery in sales activity in the remote resources town of Newman, with a median price ($145,000) at a fraction of the boom-time levels. 
Sales levels in Newman have improved, although from a very low base - in 2015 there were only 11 sales in the town, but there were 57 in 2016 and 75 in 2017.
The Kalgoorlie-Boulder market remains well below par. In 2012/2013 this market was recording around 250 sales per quarter but in the past 12 months fewer than 125 per quarter. We continue to classify Kalgoorlie as a Danger market.
In South Australia, former growth star Whyalla has been classified in The Price Predictor Index as a Danger market over the past two years, but there is hope for better things. 
Our latest quarterly survey shows signs of an upturn in sales, but at levels still well below the resources-fuelled peak of 2013/2014.
Sales in the past four quarters have been 10, 30, 31  and 37, which shows a pattern of improvement, but compares to quarterly sales of 96, 99, 89 and 84 in 2012-13.
Better news about the future of ailing steel maker Arrium, one of the region’s major employers, gives rise to hope for recovery in the local economy and property market. 
I await the next few quarterly surveys to see whether recent signs of upturn in sales activity are real.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
ryder@hotspotting.com.au
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

When will Gladstone recover? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
State Government approvals which appear to green light the Adani coal project represent a clear and present danger for property investors with poor research and short memories. 
I was alarmed to see News Ltd media publishing stories with headlines like this: “Adani impact: Mining towns on cusp of a housing boom”.
This article was repeated in various forms of media across the nation, with content like this: “After years of poor property price growth, cities like Gladstone, Rockhampton and Emerald are poised to become an investors’ paradise following the State Government’s decision to give the green light for the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin.
“Home prices in towns like Bowen, Longreach and Moranbah, which are up to 73% below their peak, could be on the cusp of a major rebound with work on the Carmichael coal mine set to start immediately.”
Investors’ paradise? Seriously? This is the pinnacle in irresponsible journalism. Anything goes, it seems, in the interests of creating clickbait.
And Longreach to experience an Adani related boom? It’s about 600km south-west of the mine site and, as far as I can tell, has nothing to do with the project or its alleged benefits. (There have been some concerns expressed by Longreach farmers about negative impacts on water resources).
Let’s get some perspective. Mining towns have shown themselves in the recent past to be more of a fool’s paradise than an investor’s paradise. They’re at the extreme danger end of the risk spectrum for property investors. More people have lost money than made fortunes investing in places like Moranbah and Gladstone.
There’s no doubt that many of these places have shown exceptional price growth at times in their history and have also delivered periods of very high rental returns. But the booms have been followed by disastrous busts.
At one point, during the last resources investment boom, Moranbah’s median house price topped $700,000. It had an annual average growth rate around 30% - that’s 30% per year over 10 years. Weekly rents around $1,500 were common.
But what happened next is the core lesson for investors: the major mining companies became fed up with paying those sorts of rents and prices for very ordinary houses. And they came up with a new model that cost them less – they constructed temporary workers’ camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out (FIFO) workers.
The median house price of Moranbah dropped to around $150,000 and vacancies went above 10%, with a dramatic negative effect on rents.
In the past year or so, the market there has started to recover. Vacancies have come down to below 2% and prices are rising again (from a very low base). 
But will the opening of major new mines create a new housing boom? It’s unlikely, because the mining companies have established a successful model of FIFO workers and workers camps. Those crazy booms of the past won’t be repeated. Any peripheral upsurge in values will be temporary.
Right now, the long-term growth rate for Moranbah prices (the average annual change over the past 10 years) is -3% per year. That’s minus 3% per year. Which means the current median price – around $205,000 – is considerably lower than it was 10 years ago.
The Moranbah story has been repeated in mining-related locations elsewhere in Queensland, including Gladstone, Emerald and the towns of the Surat Basin. It’s also happened, spectacularly, in resources centres in Western Australia, like Port Hedland and Karratha.
Gladstone had a big property market slump while three huge gas plants costing $60 billion were under construction. The market in Newman in the Pilbara region of WA dived while Gina Rinehart was building a $10 billion iron ore mine near the town.
All suffered from the same syndrome: while developers built lots of new dwellings in anticipation of a property boom, the resources companies built workers camps and many of the new homes sat empty, creating a property downturn.
The notion that a big new mine means a housing boom for nearby towns is no longer valid.
And, when you read a little deeper into the News Ltd article, you find this:
CoreLogic senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said it was hard to say what the approval of the mine would mean for the surrounding regions because there was still a lot of contention around how many local jobs would be created.
“If you assume job creation is significant, it will increase demand for housing both from a purchase and rental perspective,” Mr Kusher said. “The challenge will be that since the end of the mining boom these areas have seen very low demand for housing so, if demand exceeds supply you would expect rents and prices to increase, however, I can’t say with any confidence whether that will or won’t be the case.”
I agree with those sentiments. And I would go further – the big property booms in mining towns are history, unless the miners’ modus operandi changes.
There will be some benefits to property markets from the Adani mine, if it goes ahead (it still has some federal regulatory hurdles to get over). Townsville will benefit from having the project HQ, Bowen is close to the export port and may get some spinoff - and Mackay may benefit through proximity and the ability to provide workers, perhaps.
I regard Mackay as a growth property market, because it is benefitting from the revival in Central Queensland mining plus – and this is the key factor – it has other growth elements to its economy. It’s not solely reliant on a buoyant mining sector.
Investors seeking to exploit the Central Queensland mining revival would be better off considering the larger, more diversified regional cities like Mackay, rather than the small towns near the mine sites.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Be careful of “The Adani Boom” hype: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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There are growing signs that some regional markets impacted by the resources sector have passed the worst and are starting to improve.
These are locations where increased dwelling supply coincided with a downturn in demand as the mining investment boom subsided (or miners built workers camps), causing sales and prices to fall.
Places where demand appears to be rising again include NSW towns impacted by the coal industry (Muswellbrook, Singleton and Mudgee), WA centres for the iron ore and gas sectors (Port Hedland and Karratha), and Queensland towns impacted by coal (Emerald, Mackay and Moranbah).
But that’s not a signal for investors to start buying in these places again. I would hope the many boom-bust scenarios that occurred over the past 4-5 years has left a lasting impression on investors across Australia.
Before the end of the resources investment boom, far too many investors jumped into these markets without understanding the extreme volatility of them and/or their own risk profiles.
The extent of the slump in some of these locations is demonstrated by these figures: at the pinnacle of the resources investment boom, the median house price for Port Hedland in WA was well above $1 million. The latest figures shows a median price around $400,000, following a further 33 percent decline in the past year.
In the coal-mining town of Moranbah in Central Queensland, the median house price has fallen from above $700,000 at the peak of the boom to around $160,000 today.
These are some of the most extreme examples of decline but there are many others, including Queensland centres like Gladstone, Mackay, Emerald and Surat Basin towns such as Chinchilla.
In many cases the downturn in local markets was not caused by any decline in the key resources industry (in many cases it was the CSG/LNG sector which continued to create jobs and economic activity in the affected locations) but by a fundamental switch in the approach of the mining companies to accommodating personnel in workers camps.
Developers who built lots of new product in these places found out, too late, that there was not the expected demand for local dwellings. Places like Gladstone in Queensland and Newman in WA had a boom economy but a doom property market.
Now there is evidence that sales activity is rising in some of these places, after slumping significantly in the past three years. In 2015, each quarter had fewer than 45 sales for Port Hedland and South Hedland combined. But the past three quarters have each had more than 60 sales, with a pattern of rising sales numbers.
In Karratha, residential sales numbered fewer than 55 in most quarters throughout the three years covering 2013 to 2015. But sales activity rose noticeably in 2016, with the past three quarters each delivering more than 75 sales. The general trend is up and we await evidence that 2017 will continue the pattern.
In the meantime, I urge extreme caution for investors considering dipping a toe in these dangerous waters. Resources-related markets are at the high-risk end of the spectrum - there are periods of sharp rises, often followed by catastrophic decline.
I would never buy in these places, because the risks are too high. And the modern trend of workers camps mean that the dwelling demand generated by major mining projects is considerably lower than in the past.
A warning is timely because there is renewed confidence in the resources sector. New projects are being planned and mothballed ventures are being reactivated, particularly in Queensland and WA. As sales activity rises in resources centres, the industry will be pumping out press releases suggesting the boom days are returning.
Hopefully the massive price and rental decline of recent years will live long in the memories of investors.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can  <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3Cspan%20style=/'display:%20none;/'%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3EThis%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20document.write('%3C/');%20document.write('span%3E');%20//--%3E%20%3C/script%3E">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Growing signs resources-heavy regional property markets on the improve

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Australia's housing boom has cooled after five years of expansion. Sydney housing prices have stopped rising and price growth is slowing in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is past its peak. Thankfully, this is arriving just as the drag from falling mining investment and commodity prices is coming to its end.
 Importantly, the mining decline was much bigger, so the net effect should still be growth-positive. We see any negative 'wealth effect' from the end of housing boom as negligible. We see growth lifting in 2018 and expect it to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade.
Australia's housing boom has helped to fill the gap left by falling mining investment over the past five years, as the economy has needed to rebalance. Now, the housing boom is coming to its end (Chart 1). House prices have levelled out in Sydney since April and house price growth has slowed in Melbourne. The housing construction boom is also past its peak. Dwelling investment has already levelled out and is set to be a drag on overall growth from the second half of 2018, as the pipeline of apartment construction is completed.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure1.jpg" alt="">
Thankfully, the fall in dwelling investment is arriving just as the mining investment drag is coming to its end and, importantly, the drag from mining was much bigger. The mining investment decline is set to go from a maximum drag of around 1.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, to no drag at all by mid-2018 (Chart 2). By comparison, the dwelling investment contribution to growth, which was a maximum of around 0.5ppts of GDP in mid-2016, is forecast to be a drag of around 0.25ppts by 2019. The collective effect from these two sectors is that a net drag on GDP of around 1ppt in mid-2016 is set to be almost no drag at all in 2018 and 2019.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure2.jpg" alt="">
Of course, there are also other forces at work. Falling commodity prices, between 2011 and 2016, were a large drag on national incomes. The lift in commodity prices from their trough levels in early 2016 is now supporting growth in national incomes. There has also been a ramp up in investment in urban infrastructure, largely funded by state government asset sales, which is supporting local growth and is set to continue to ramp up through 2018. Finally, tourism and education exports, supported by a much lower AUD in recent years and rising middle class incomes in Asia, are helping to fill the gap left by falling mining investment.
Nonetheless, some observers have argued that the end of the housing boom may have a strong negative effect on the economy, which could weigh on overall growth over the next couple of years. The argument is that households will be less inclined to spend as the cooling of the housing boom means they are no longer seeing wealth gains. However, in our view, there has been little evidence of a positive wealth effect in recent years, so we see a large negative wealth effect as unlikely. 
The more downbeat observers point to the fall in the national household saving rate as evidence of a positive wealth effect. We disagree. Although the national household saving rate has fallen in recent years, the state-level numbers show that the saving rate has not fallen in the states which have had housing prices boom (NSW and Victoria) (Chart 3). If the rise in wealth had driven households to consume more, surely it would have happened in the states where wealth has been rising? Instead, household saving rates have only fallen in the mining states (WA and Queensland), after rising during the mining boom.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure3.jpg" alt="">
The moves in household saving rates therefore appear to reflect the impact of the resources cycle on incomes, not a wealth effect. Estimates of housing equity flows also suggest that households have been injecting equity into their dwellings in recent years, rather than withdrawing it, which is further evidence that there has not been a wealth effect. With no positive wealth effect, a negative wealth effect from the end of the housing boom seems unlikely.
Rather than wealth changes, the critical factor that has driven trends in household consumption in recent years has been household income growth. Weak growth in household consumption has been due to the slow growth in household incomes, reflecting weak jobs and wages growth at the end of the mining boom. However, as the mining sector starts to stabilise, we are now seeing the strongest growth in employment is coming from the mining states (WA and Queensland) (Chart 4). This should start to lift household income in those states and support consumption growth.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/20/Figure4.jpg" alt="">
What we have not seen yet is a pick-up in wages growth. This is the final stage of the 'rebalancing act' at the end of the mining boom. The cyclical factors are now supportive of a pick-up in wages growth, although there are also structural factors weighing on wages. On the cyclical story, commodity prices have lifted, corporate profitability has improved, business conditions are at high levels and, critically, the labour market is tightening up. However, the structural factors weighing on wages growth include, the changing nature of work, due to technology, offshoring, as a result of globalisation, decreased unionisation, and, increasing casualization of the workforce, amongst others.
 
Our central case is that the cyclical factors, particularly the tightening of the labour market, will see a pick-up in wages growth in 2018, which will complete Australia's 'great rebalancing act'. We also expect growth to be more broad-based across industries and regions than it has been in at least a decade, which should help to see a pick-up in wages pressures as spare capacity from across the economy is absorbed. Of course, the clear risk is that this process takes longer than we have factored in, as the structural factors continue to offset the impact of the positive cyclical forces. The outlook for wages growth remains the main focus of the story.
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Australia's housing boom finished, but so is the drag from mining: HSBC'S Paul Bloxham

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/76461/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
As rents soar in Melbourne and Sydney, the rental market in Western Australia has become more affordable for low-wage workers since the end of the mining boom.
But many households still struggle to find affordable accommodation.
Today Anglicare released its annual national Rental Affordability Snapshot, which includes a focus on each state. 
In WA, 14,123 private rentals were advertised at the beginning of April, up 8% from a year ago. With increased stock, rents are becoming more affordable across the state. The median rent in the Perth metro area fell 11% to A$350; by 6% in the Southwest and Great Southern regions; and by 7% in the Northwest, including the Pilbara and Kimberley. 
Following years of inflated rents during the mining boom, working families in WA are seeing some real improvement in rental affordability – defined as less than 30% of household income. More than 46% of properties listed in Perth were found to be affordable for a couple both earning minimum wages and receiving Family Tax Benefit in 2017, compared to 39% in 2016. Similar families could afford 23% of properties in Melbourne and only 4% in Sydney. 
Single parents on a minimum wage had far fewer options. They could afford only 6% of listed properties in Perth. In all of Sydney and Melbourne, only one property was affordable for single parents on a minimum wage.
The situation remains dire for households on fixed incomes in WA – as it does for similar households across Australia. A person on a disability pension could afford only 25 properties (0.2% of available properties). A single parent could afford 48 (0.3%). And pensioners could afford 105 (2.7%) in all of WA. 
People on Newstart or Youth Allowance had no affordable options in the entire state. This includes boarding houses and share houses, where rooms are rented out individually. 
<h2>What are the consequences?</h2>
With more than 18,500 households on the waiting list for social housing and an average wait time of three years, most low-income households must find somewhere to live in the private rental market. When housing is unaffordable, low-income households end up paying a large percentage of their income on rent. Doing this means they forgo basic necessities, borrow money to stay afloat and, in some cases, experience homelessness. 
The number of people at risk of homelessness is increasing every year. More than 24,000 Western Australians sought help from a homelessness service in 2016, an increase of 5% from the previous year.
The slowing state economy has brought insecurity and uncertainty to many working families. With growing rates of unemployment and under-employment, and increased casualisation of the workforce, many WA households are in precarious financial circumstances. 
Anglicare WA financial counsellors report an increase in requests from tenants who have had to break their lease due to a job loss or needing to move interstate for employment. They find themselves liable for the period the rental remains vacant in the soft housing market, as well as the difference between the rent they paid and the likely reduced rent for new tenants. 
Landlords remain protected from the loss, while the tenants often end up paying for a home they no longer live in.
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
To start with, increasing the stock of social housing would go some way to overcoming the lack of affordable options for people on low incomes. 
The creation of affordable housing bonds, similar to those discussed by Treasurer Scott Morrison in his address to the Affordable Housing and Urban Research Institute earlier this month, would create a pool of funds for social housing providers to use to build more stock. However, such a mechanism is still many years off.
In the meantime, increasing the rate of Newstart from the current $268 per week to ensure a basic standard of living for job-seekers would bring households living in poverty back from the brink of homelessness. 
Two other policy options would also help improve housing affordability for people on low incomes. The government should remove distortionsin the tax system that inflate the cost of housing and discourage institutional investment in the private rental sector. Commonwealth Rent Assistance could also be increased and better targeted.
The main conclusion from this study is that broader discussions about housing affordability overlook the fact that the private rental market is not capable of meeting the needs of many people on low and fixed incomes without trapping them in poverty by consuming most of their available funds.
 
Shae Garwood is honorary research fellow, School of Social and Cultural Studies, University of Western Australia and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shae-garwood-293422" target="_blank">here</a>.
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