Milk

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Canada's Saputo is set to be named preferred bidder for the operations of embattled milk processor Murray Goulburn, Australia’s largest dairy processor.
The rumoured sale price is around $1.1 billion, with the Moelis-advised Saputo the last standing.
Parmalat was a prospect and Bega Cheese released a statement to the ASX saying it was “no longer a potential purchaser”.
The Murray Goulburn chair John Spark, who will update the co-op today, has bankers increasing the pressure on the cash-starved dairy co-op.
Competition issues could now be raised if Saputo wanted to buy Murray Goulburn where the price consists of net debt of about $450 million and equity in the $550 million, according to The Australian..
The MG stock price has increased from about 65c in September to 82c, but still well below the $2.42 float price in 2015.
Others potential buyers are in the background including French-based Parmalat, along with two Chinese firms — the Lazard-advised Mengniu Dairy and BAML-advised Yili.
The UBS-advised Wilmar is also in the wings along with Rothschild-advised New Zealand giant Fonterra, which has been described by The Australian columnist John Durie as the wildcard in the battle.
The Australian Financial Review's Street Talk noted that after days of negotiations, Saputo emerged yesterday as the leading contender, with an announcement to shareholders and farmers expected at its annual general meeting in Melbourne on Friday.
Murray Goulburn has been under pressure after its milk intake plunged following a decision to retrospectively cut milk prices last year.
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In August it reduced its milk intake guidance for 2017-18 to just 2 billion litres, down from 3.5 billion litres in 2016.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Canada's Saputo likely to bid for Murray Goulburn milk processor 

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ANZ has today activated an assistance package for its Australian dairy farmers impacted by a mid-season milk price reduction.
ANZ General Manager Regional Business Banking Christine Linden said falling farm-gate dairy prices are putting significant stress on some dairy producers and while the macro fundamentals in the medium and longer-term of the industry remain strong, we know many of our customers are doing it tough at the moment.
“We’re encouraging our dairy customers to get in touch with us so we can provide support and work with them on the best possible solutions to meet their needs," she said.
“Every farm has a different cost structure and unique characteristics. We’re committed to working with each customer to respond to the current challenges so they can take advantage of the long-term benefits of the dairy industry.
As part of its assistance package, ANZ offers to:
Suspend repayments on loans, including credit cards, for up to three months (which may include interest capitalisation)
Waive fees associated with restructuring business loans considered necessary due to milk price impacts
Provide temporary adjustments to lending limits, including credit cards to assist with unexpected costs and reduced income
Provide early access to term deposits without incurring any fees for impacted customers
Provide access to hardship support services.
ANZ’s customers affected across Australia are encouraged to visit their local branch or contact their Agribusiness Manager to discuss the impact on their business or personal circumstances.
Customers can also contact ANZ’s dedicated financial hardship team on 1800 351 548.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

ANZ assists dairy farmers with milk price reduction package

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVERS
A structural change is underway in global dairy markets. A perfect storm has emerged through a coincidence of events, technology, and policy changes across the major dairy producing nations, including Australia, which will result in a long term significant reset of dairy economics across the globe.
Cooperatives Murray Goulburn and Fonterra have both dramatically reduced the prices they offer dairy farmers for milk, sparking a backlash from farmers, who say they will be pushed into the red and out of dairy.
It is only due to the strength of the two cooperatives in absorbing the costs of high milk prices in a changing market that these reductions did not occur earlier. The cooperatives have shown an inadequate understanding of global dairy economics by over-paying farmers and by seeking to claw back over-paid advances.
The low prices have been blamed on a short-term oversupply coinciding with a reduction in demand from China and Russia. Some of this demand is now being met by Chinese investment in both Australia and New Zealand which also contributes to the changes underway. But the debate thus far has focused on problems with demand while ignoring the bigger issue of increasing global over-supply.
The preoccupation with the belief that global demand will solve emerging on-farm production cost difficulties and that a “substantial improvement in prices was still expected by mid-2016” was naïve and failed to recognise how quickly, and irreversibly global dairy supply can change.
Since the mid-2000s a strong increase in demand for milk products across Asia, largely on the back of rising middle-income wealth led to the complete depletion of surplus dairy stocks in the European Union and the US. This change to the supply-demand equilibrium resulted in a temporary sea-change in dairy markets because growth in demand simply outpaced growth in supply by between 50% and 100% in some markets on an annual basis.
To a large extent this imbalance had been driven by regulation of the global supply market in which only a few export nations competed – Australia and New Zealand included. It resulted in higher than historical average dairy prices in global markets, but considerably more short-term volatility due to global GDP shocks and short-term supply-demand imbalances.
Regrettably a critical assumption that appears to have emerged among producers during this period, as evidenced by continued investment and expansion, was that the real price for global dairy commodities was increasing, a trend they expected to continue in the long term.
The current dairy price scenario, which would historically have been short-lived, is in fact masking underlying structural changes to supply-side dynamics that are now underway. Only approximately 7 percent of globally produced milk is traded (65 billion milk-equivalent litres). Therefore, a small change in supply globally has a profound effect on the global dairy market equilibrium.
The EU is the world’s largest milk producer, with approximately 160 billion litres produced annually. The <a href="https://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1522e/i1522e02.pdf">r</a>emoval of milk production quotas in March 2015 presented an opportunity for dairy expansion and, even more importantly, one that is no longer confined to the traditional dairy exporters of Ireland, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Under quota, EU exports doubled between 2000 and 2013 to 9.5 billion litres and are anticipated to increase again this coming season. Quota removal has freed dairy farmers in central and Eastern Europe to increase in scale considerably, availing themselves of technologies denied during the Cold War years. Coupled with the removal of regulations concerning the transportation of liquid milk across borders, producers and processors now find themselves with opportunities for growth not experienced since the second world war.
Political policies in the world’s third largest dairy producer, the USA, are also likely to influence global dairy supply in the future. Current dairy production is being stimulated by low feed prices, which were driven by record yield seasons in 2013 and 2014, similar levels in 2015 and new projected highs this year.
Eighty percent of US dairy farm costs are feed. The reduction in feed costs from US$29.26 per 100kg milk in August 2012 to US$18.04 per 100 kg milk in June 2015 has greatly increased the value of marginal production.
The advent of large-scale fracking, which has resulted in a significant reduction in the price of oil, will likely maintain lower corn prices, at least in the short-term. This comes as the reduced value of biofuels re-focus the use of corn back to a feedstuffs for farmed livestock. The net result is that 75% of every new tonne of production across the USA is expected to be sold on the global surplus market.
Farmers have fought for free trade and open access for decades on both sides of the Tasman. Now that it is emerging, profitable returns will be caught first by the lowest cost global producer.
We are fools to think that that will be either Australia or New Zealand. Therefore, possibly with the exception of the US market, a downward reset is in store for global dairy prices.
James Lockhart is senior Lecturer, School of Management, Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-lockhart-265538" target="_blank">here</a>.
Danny Donaghy is professor of Dairy Production Systems, Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danny-donaghy-265818" target="_blank">here</a>.
Hamish Gow is professor of Agribusiness, Massey University and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hamish-gow-265539" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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