Median Prices

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A wide gap exists between media-generated perceptions about real estate issues and the reality revealed by research.
Examples abound. Media serves a regular diet of “affordability crisis” stories while the major affordability indexes published quarterly tell a quite different story. The annual survey by Property Investment Professionals of Australia, in which most of the major findings contradict common perceptions, provides another case in point.
The latest Adelaide Bank/REIA Housing Affordability Report finds that affordability (the national average situation) has improved to the best levels in seven years. Continuing reductions to interest rates and (small) increases to incomes have improved home-buyers’ capacity to repay their mortgages, while the overall rate of price growth has diminished.
The proportion of the median family income needed to repay an average loan in the June Quarter was 29.4 percent – down 0.6 percentage points from the March Quarter, and the lowest level since June 2009.
Those figures tell a very different story to the general theme of daily media coverage, which portrays a crisis, the death of the Great Australian Dream and a generation doomed to a lifetime of renting.
The proportion of family income needed to meet loan repayments improved in all state and territories in the past 12 months. NSW remains the most expensive place to service a home loan (35.4 percent of family income) while the ACT is the cheapest (19.4 percent of income).
The report makes a pertinent observation about the level of activity by first-time buyers. Most media reports bemoan the apparent low numbers of first-home buyers, based on highly-misleading loan statistics. The Adelaide Bank report points out that while first-home buyers are 14.3 percent of the owner-occupier market, if you exclude re-financing loans they make up 22.5 percent of the owner-occupier market 
And there’s another component to first-time buyer activity not discussed here – the number of first-time buyers who buy an investment property as a first purchase. 
The report highlights another point often overlooked by media when discussing the ability of young people to buy homes. The weighted average median house price in the capital cities is $698,000, according to this report, but the average loan size for first-home buyers is $328,000.
This reinforces the view that quoting city medians (especially the very high ones for Sydney) in the context of affordability for first-home buyers is misleading, because first-timers buy at the lower end of the market, as they have always done. First-timers don’t buy mid-range homes, not in Sydney nor anywhere else.
The second annual Property Investor Sentiment Survey by Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) shows that 71 percent of respondents think now is a good time to invest in property. This figure is up by five percentage points compared with last year.   While 32 percent of investors say recent changes to lenders’ investment policies have affected their ability to secure finance, 58 percent are nonetheless looking to buy a property in next 6-12 months.   According to the survey, 72 percent of investors are unconcerned about the potential removal of negative gearing and only 2 percent think that negative gearing concessions are a key attraction of real estate investment. This would tend to contradict general media perceptions that investors are piling into real estate, allegedly forcing up prices, because of the tax breaks.
Indeed, the survey shows that almost half of property investors are positively-geared and two-thirds of those who are currently negatively-geared expect they will become positively-geared within five years.
Close to nine out of ten prefer to buy existing properties rather than new, which would suggest the ALP plan to restrict negative gearing to new properties to encourage construction activity would be ineffective (especially given the oversupply of new apartments).
Another myth-buster is the finding that only 13 percent of investors see record low interest rates as the key reason to get into property investment. Most media commentary (usually sourced from economists) would have us believe that the key driver of the mythical “national property boom” has been record low interest rates.   PIPA chair Ben Kingsley says the survey results confirm that property investors remain focused on the long-term benefits of property investment and are not distracted by fleeting media issues like negative gearing, alleged bubbles and looming oversupply in some markets.
As an interesting sidelight from the general theme, investor views on which cities now provide the best investment prospects have the capital cities ranked in this order: Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin. Half of the survey respondents voted for Brisbane.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Quoting city medians for first-home buyers misleading

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Looking at median selling prices over the past decade, the national median house price ten years ago was recorded at $330,000, while the median unit price was $310,000.
Ten years on, and the median selling prices are now $499,000 and $445,000 respectively.
What we’re seeing here is a selling price increase of 51 percent for houses over the decade and by 44 percent for units. Clearly, based on broad averages, in most areas of the country median prices have not doubled over the past decade.
Across individual capital cities the results diverge significantly, however none of the capital cities have seen the city-wide median house or unit prices double over the past decade. Prices have gone closest to doubling over the decade in Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin while in Perth and Hobart the total change for houses and units has been well below 50 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%208.27.01%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%208.27.01%20AM.png" alt="">
A granular look at the housing market reveals 4,048 individual suburbs that had at least 10 house sales over the 12 months to both June 2006 and June 2016 and 1,665 suburbs that had at least 10 sales over both periods for units. Of the 4,048 suburbs nationally for houses, only 573 suburbs or 14% have seen the median selling price of a house double over the past decade. For units, only 159 of the 1,665 suburbs nationally, or 10 percent, have seen median prices of units double over the past decade.
A split of suburbs that have, and have not, seen median selling prices double over the past decade across each state and territory includes:
• Houses: NSW, Vic and NT are the only states and territories in which more than 10 percent of suburbs have seen prices double over the past 10 years.;
• Units: again only NSW, Vic and NT saw more than 10 percent of suburbs recording prices as doubling;
• Not one suburb in Tasmania has seen a doubling in median price over the past decade.
<a href="/images/2016/10/06/Number%20of%20suburbs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/06/Number%20of%20suburbs%201.jpg" alt="">
An overview of the capital growth performance for capital city suburbs over the past decade shows:
• For houses: Melbourne is the only city where half of the individual suburbs saw median selling prices double over the past decade while Sydney has also seen more than 40 percent of suburbs doubling in price. Darwin is the only other capital city where more than 10 percent of suburbs have seen selling prices of houses at least double over the past 10 years.
• For units: once again Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin are the only capital cities in which selling prices have more than doubled in at least 10 percent of suburbs.
<a href="/images/2016/10/06/Number%20of%20suburbs%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/06/Number%20of%20suburbs%202.jpg" alt="">
A comparison of the two adjacent tables highlights just how much stronger price growth has been in the capital cities than across regional markets.
It also highlights just how much the strong growth over the decade has been tilted towards Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin. Of course, values are already declining in Darwin while they continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne.
The next time you hear of property prices doubling every seven to ten years, although it can happen in certain areas, there are no guarantees.
The CoreLogic analysis highlights the importance of buying strategically; on average most properties have fallen well short of doubling their value over a decade. Using today’s data as an example, it highlights that far fewer owners have seen their real estate asset double in price over the past decade than those who have.
For those who have seen their property price double over the decade, they are most likely to be situated in Sydney, Melbourne or Darwin while in other capital cities and regional areas of the country the prospects of prices having doubled over this period are much lower.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Does property double over 10 years? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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Victoria’s housing market is bouncing back from the recent downturn, according to the latest REIV quarterly median price data.
A springtime boost is helping to restore the housing market with house prices up by 4.5% in the latest REIV September Median Quarterly, while the price of units has grown by 3.9%.
Melbourne’s growth of 4.5% is the highest quarterly result since March 2017.
Melbourne’s housing growth was led by the northern suburbs with Preston achieving the highest quarterly growth with 25.7%, closely followed by the neighbouring Coburg on 20.8%.
Melbournes highest growth was in middle Melbourne, where house prices grew by 8.3%.
Doreen overtook Pakenham and Cragieburn to achieve the most number of housing sales during the September Quarter. 
Donvale remains Melbournes most consistent suburb, being the only area to achieve positive growth both quarterly and yearly.
The growth was shared across the board in regional Victoria with unit prices increasing by a massive 7.1%.
Bendigo is the top regional housing performer, scoring 11.9% quarterly and 29.7% annual growth. 
While Churchill and Moe have been crowned as the two most affordable suburbs in regional Victoria.
REIV Presidents Leah Calnan said the September quarter has brought the news prospective sellers have been waiting to hear.
“Enthusiasm is growing as prices surge and properties are being snapped up more quickly, this is the perfect time to get on the market,” Calnan said.
“Warmer spring weather, lower interest rates and easier loaning protocols have resulted in significant growth for Victoria’s real estate sector.
“Growing prices and increasing sales are great news for everybody, and our market is in the midst of a much-needed recovery.
“The September Quarterly results make for great reading, but we are not out of the woods yet.”
September Quarter 2019 Median Prices
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Median Prices, Seasonally Adjusted
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Note: Year-on-year growth is based on rolling annual figures
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Sep-19 Quarter
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Jun-19 Quarter
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Quarterly Change
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12 months to Sep-19 Quarter
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12 months to Sep-18 Quarter
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Annual Change
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Metropolitan Melbourne
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House
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$830,000
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$794,000
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4.5%
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$810,000
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$835,500
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-3.1%
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Unit and Apartment
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$613,500
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$590,500
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3.9%
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$595,000
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$597,500
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-0.4%
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Regional Victoria
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House
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$408,500
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$405,000
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0.9%
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$410,000
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$395,000
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3.8%
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Unit and Apartment
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$302,500
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$282,500
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7.1%
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$295,000
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$290,000
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1.7%
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Sep-19 Quarter
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Jun-19 Quarter
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Quarterly Change
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12 months to Sep-19 Quarter
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12 months to Sep-18 Quarter
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Annual Change
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Inner Melbourne
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House
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$1,379,500
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$1,342,500
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2.8%
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$1,381,000
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$1,526,000
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-9.5%
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Unit and Apartment
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$601,000
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$587,500
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2.3%
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$590,000
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$595,000
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-0.8%
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Middle Melbourne
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House
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$983,000
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$907,500
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8.3%
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$925,000
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$1,005,000
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-8.0%
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Unit and Apartment
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$680,500
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$654,000
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4.1%
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$655,000
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$661,000
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-0.9%
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Outer Melbourne
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House
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$658,500
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$631,000
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4.4%
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$645,000
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$675,000
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-4.4%
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Unit and Apartment
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$519,500
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$496,000
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4.7%
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$505,500
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$515,000
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-1.8%
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Sep-19 Quarter
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Jun-19 Quarter
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Quarterly Change
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12 months to Sep-19 Quarter
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12 months to Sep-18 Quarter
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Annual Change
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Auctions
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House
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$978,000
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$925,500
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5.7%
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$950,000
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$950,000
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0.0%
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Unit and Apartment
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$695,000
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$652,000
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6.6%
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$666,000
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$670,000
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-0.6%
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Private Sale
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House
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$727,000
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$715,500
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1.6%
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$730,000
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$750,000
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-2.7%
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Unit and Apartment
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$554,000
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$542,000
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2.2%
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$545,000
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$539,000
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1.1%
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Victoria's residential prices bouncing back 

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Melbourne led the rise in median house prices across Australian capital cities for the March quarter, according to the latest research from industry body the Real Estate Institute of Australia. 
Weighted average median prices rose by 2.9 percent for houses and 2.5 percent for other dwellings.
Over the quarter, Melbourne had the largest increase in both the median price for houses, 7.6 percent and for other dwellings, 3.8 percent. 
The weighted average median price for houses for the eight capital cities increased to $763,892, according to REIA Real Estate Market Facts for the March quarter 2017.
REIA president Malcolm Gunning said the median price was driven by increases in Melbourne and Sydney and, to a lesser extent, in Darwin. “The weighted average median price for other dwellings increased to $587,290, again driven by median price growth in Melbourne and Sydney and, to lesser extent, in Perth, Canberra and Hobart,” are said.
“Median house prices decreased in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Hobart and, median prices for other dwellings decreased in Brisbane and Darwin.”
Median rents for three-bedroom houses rose in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra with Hobart leading with an increase at 5.7 per cent. Perth and Darwin experienced decreases. 
Median rents for two-bedroom other dwellings increased in most capital cities with the largest rise in Hobart at 7.5 percent. In Melbourne and Perth, median rents for other dwellings remained steady while it fell in Darwin.
The weighted average vacancy rate for the eight capital cities remained steady at 2.9 percent during the March quarter. In most capital cities, the vacancy rates either remained steady or increased/decreased by 0.1 percentage points. 
“The vacancy rate ranged from a high of 7.1 percent in Darwin to a low of 1.7 percent in Canberra, which had the tightest rental market for the quarter. With a rise of 0.1 per cent, Perth was the only capital city to see its vacancy rate increase,” Gunning said. 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Melbourne drives rise in median house price: REIA 

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Sydney median house prices are at $825,000 according to CoreLogic's latest Property Market Indicator Summary, with Melbourne houses at $590,000 and Brisbane $515,000.
The current median price for units is the most expensive in Sydney at $680,000.
Median house prices in Adelaide and Hobert are $420,000 and $300,750 respectively.
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The two capital cities with private treaty median house prices under $500,000: CoreLogic

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Home auction markets weakened over April with most capitals reporting falling clearance rates compared to the previous month.
Melbourne was the exception with clearance rates increasing marginally from 71.8 percent to 72.5 percent to remain the best performing capital city market.
Clearance rates in all capitals with the exception of Adelaide remain below the levels reported over April last year.
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CAPITAL CITY      APRIL 2016     MARCH 2016         APRIL 2015
SYDNEY             68.1 percent    69.2 percent         83.1 percent
MELBOURNE      72.5 percent     71.8 percent        76.9 percent
BRISBANE          41.6 percent     44.9 percent        52.8 percent
ADELAIDE          63.5 percent     64.0 percent        57.1 percent
CANBERRA         62.2 percent    65.6 percent        69.2 percent
Domain noted median auction prices were down over the month in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane reflecting to some extent the impact of holidays with fewer higher-priced homes in the market.
The number of auctions listed this year so far however is higher than the result over the same period last year in all capitals except Sydney where auction volumes have fallen sharply by 6.5 percent.
 
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April auctions weakened slightly: Domain

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Melbourne’s property market is expected to see stronger sales in May and June after a slow start to 2016, based on data showing the median house price has remained relatively stable for the second consecutive quarter.
The capital city's median house price was $713,000 for the three months to March 31, according to REIV figures released this week.
The stable median house price and the pickup in the number of auctions from late April through to early June was good news for buyers, said REIV chief executive officer, Enzo Raimondo.
“The moderate market will allow many more owner occupiers, including some families, strong opportunities to get a foothold on the property ladder,” he said.
The forecast strong listings, coming off the back of what has been a big 12-18 months, is expected to further add to buyer opportunities, with a wider array of homes on offer.
“Traditionally, March is one of the strongest months for property sales with high auction volumes and listings. This year has been slower, mainly due to the consecutive Labour Day public holiday, followed by Easter and the school holidays – pushing many auctions and private sales into late April and May,” he said.
In the first three months of 2016, outer Melbourne again proved to be the best performing area of Melbourne, with most of the top growth suburbs in the north and west of Melbourne.
REIV president Geoff White said that this included Epping, Caroline Springs and Werribee – and followed strong growth in the outer north-east in the December quarter, when Warrandyte recorded strong growth.
White said that “Epping and Bentleigh East recorded growth of 10.8 and 9.9 per cent respectively”.
“The only suburb within 10 km of Melbourne within the top three suburbs was Malvern East, which delivered quarterly growth of around 13 per cent,” he said.
Other outer suburbs delivering high quarterly growth were Langwarrin, Doreen Rowville and Keysborough. In fact, 12 of the top 20 growth suburbs were in outer Melbourne, he added.
“This signals continuing buying demand for homes in the city’s outer suburbs, as homebuyers look for value further from the CBD in the current market,” White said.
The median house price in Melbourne’s outer ring – that is, more than 20 km from the CBD – reached $557,500 this quarter, up almost $3,000 on December.
Meanwhile, unit and apartment prices fell slightly across the city, down 1.8 per cent in the March quarter to a median of $525,500. The decline follows solid growth of 1.6 per cent in December.
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Melbourne median house prices stable for second quarter in a row, auctions to pick up: REIV

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Brisbane recorded a 14th consecutive quarter of growth with its median house price reaching $632,000 in the December quarter of 2015, according to REIQ's latest Market Monitor for Queensland.
The Brisbane house market was once again the strongest market, with a new median house price and a six percent increase in total listings. The days on market edged out to 78 days from 73 last year, however, vendor discounting is the same, 5.1 per cent.
REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said the market’s consistency was its strength and meant that it was probably the most stable capital city.
“Our market has avoided the pitfalls of a boom and bust cycle, performing consistently over the past 14 quarters, which is more than three years of sustained growth.
“I know some property owners in Sydney and Melbourne who envy that record,” she said.
Brisbane’s new median represents an increase of 1.6 per cent for the quarter, a rise of 6.1 per cent on 12 months ago and an increase of 14.2 per cent on five years ago.
In the southeast corner, eight out of nine LGAs recorded either a median house price increase or static price when compared with the previous quarter.
The housing market, statewide, was reasonably positive with increases in most markets. The exceptions to those were Fraser Coast (-7.3 per cent) and Mackay (-3.7 per cent).
The Mackay market continues to struggle to find certain ground. The median house price slid 3.7 per cent compared with the September quarter.
“We are watching Mackay very closely and our hope is that the government infrastructure projects will create jobs and lead to more vigour in the local economy,” Mercorella said.
“Mackay has a diverse local economy and it is our hope that markets such as sugar and education can help create some revenue for local businesses,” she said.
The apartment market in Mackay recorded a 64 per cent increase in activity and a 12 per cent increase to the median apartment price, to $280,000, however, this was off a very small base of 22 sales last quarter, rising to 36 sales in the December quarter. Almost all of the additional sales were within one project, which settled in December.
In the regional centres, Gladstone and Townsville defied expectations to record increases in their respective median house prices.
Gladstone lifted by 3.2 per cent to $359,500, while Townsville lifted by 2.1 per cent to $350,000.
These results were surprising, considering December’s traditionally quiet trend. However, local agents reported “flurries” of activities in the final days of December that has obviously lifted these results in both markets.
Sales volumes in the apartment market softened throughout the state in the December quarter, even in the apartment powerhouse market of the Gold Coast, where activity was down nine per cent.
However, even with fewer sales, the Gold Coast recorded a median price increase of 2.6 per cent to $374,500.
The Sunshine Coast also increased its median apartment sale price, up 1.0 per cent, to $365,000.
Outside the southeast corner, Townsville once again surprised all with a 5.1 per cent lift in median apartment price to $290,000.
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