Leading Index

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –4.43% in June to –4.37% in July.
The Index growth rate remains in deep negative territory consistent with recession. However, it appears to have bottomed out in April at -5.61% and, without the recent disaster in Victoria, it seemed certain that the June quarter would have marked the low point in the growth cycle.
Victoria represents around 25% of national output. We expect the hard lockdown following the renewed virus outbreak to see the Victorian economy contract by 9% in the September quarter. That will offset the ongoing recovery we expect to be unfolding in other states as they continue to reopen, albeit at varying speeds.
For Australia overall, we expect growth in the economy to be flat in the September quarter before lifting by 2.8% in the December quarter on the assumption that Victoria moves through Stage 4 to Stage 2 and the other states avoid ‘second wave’ outbreaks.
The Leading Index growth rate has now lifted 1.24ppts out of what was a deep hole in April (growth relative to trend bottoming at –5.61%). That has been led by strong initial rebounds in two components: US industrial production (adding +1.75ppts) and hours worked (adding 0.78ppts). However, these gains have been materially offset by deteriorations in several other components, including: dwelling approvals (–0.47ppts); the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index (–0.43ppts); and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Expectations Index (–0.31ppts).
Indeed, the three-monthly improvement would have been about double the size, and much more convincing, if it had not been for the renewed weakening in these other components. In the case of sentiment-based components, the weakness since April clearly captures the initial impact of the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria – which saw a particularly disturbing nationwide drag on confidence in the August month.
Looking over the six months since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Index still shows a large, broad-based weakening. July’s growth rate is 3.26ppts below its February pace. Six of the eight components have driven the fall: US industrial production (–1.52ppts); aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.78ppts); the S&amp;P/ASX200 (–0.45ppts); dwelling approvals (–0.40ppts); and the two consumer sentiment based components (a combined–0.48ppts). Commodity prices (+0.14ppts) and the yield spread (+0.23ppts) have provided some slight offsets.
While we always provide this standard six month comparison the key in these extraordinary times is the lift we have seen since April, which is signalling some improvement, while noting the recent impact on confidence components in response to the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 1 and we can expect the Board to maintain current policies.
From a policy perspective the next major event will be the Commonwealth Budget which will be announced on October 6. Westpac expects the government will be committed to providing generous ongoing support to the economy. However, most of this support is likely to be of a non-recurring form including bringing forward the July 2022 tax cuts; one off payments; and infrastructure spending.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/bill-evans/" target="_blank">chief economist at Westpac</a>.
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Westpac's Melbourne leading index has bottomed out: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Despite the lift, the Leading Index growth rate remains below zero, indicating momentum tracking well below trend.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/29/10_NEWS_BILL%20EVANS.jpg" alt="" width="536" height="359">
In fact the December print represents the thirteenth straight month where the Index growth rate has been negative.
This has been consistent with the persistent below trend growth we have seen for the Australian economy.
The latest update points to weak economic momentum continuing in the first half of 2020 and is consistent with Westpac’s view that growth will remain around a two per cent pace in the first half of 2020.
The Leading Index growth rate deteriorated over the second half of 2019, moving from –0.03 per cent in July to –0.32 per cent in December.
The main components driving the 0.28ppt shift have been a sell-off in commodity prices (–0.61ppts) and a more mixed performance on the Australian share market (–0.42ppts).
This has been partially offset by a stabilisation in the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations Index (+0.25ppts) a reduced drag from declining US industrial production (+0.21ppts), a modest lift in aggregate hours worked (+0.13ppts) and a widening yield spread as the RBA’s cuts in the cash rate have lowered short term rates (+0.10ppts).
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on February 4. Westpac expects that the Board will decide to hold the cash rate steady at its February meeting. That decision will be in response to the surprise fall in the unemployment rate from 5.3 per cent to 5.1 per cent since the last Board meeting in December.
However, we expect that decision to be a temporary pause in the rate cut cycle. The recent falls in the unemployment rate are expected to be unsustainable with this becoming apparent by the April meeting when we expect the next cut.
It is clear that the Board is confident that lower rates will boost the economy through a more competitive exchange rate; improved cash flows to households; and rising asset prices. However, the policy debate should not be around ‘either monetary policy or fiscal policy’.
The policies are not mutually exclusive and while Westpac expects a second rate cut in August we also support the use of fiscal policy to boost demand.
Our preference is to lift household incomes through bringing forward the stage two tax cuts phased over two years. A rise in expected demand should be more effective in boosting business investment than tax incentives.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Westpac leading index remains negative for over a year: Bill Evans 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Despite a slight improvement in the month, the Leading Index growth rate remains materially below trend and continues to point to weak economic momentum carrying well into 2020.
This below trend "theme" for the Australian economy is consistent with Westpac’s current forecast for GDP growth in 2020 of 2.4%, compared to a trend growth rate of 2.75%.
The Reserve Bank has recently released its revised growth forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021. It has maintained its view that year on year growth in 2020 will return to trend, at 2.8%, for the first calendar year since 2016.
The main differences between Westpac and the RBA are around the timing and extent of the recovery in residential dwelling investment and the outlook for business investment.
We are broadly in agreement that another below trend year for household expenditure can be expected with the outlook particularly dependent on policy responses and the risks being to the downside.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/11/20/Westpac%20Leading%20Index.jpg" alt="">
The Leading Index growth rate has deteriorated over the last six months from –0.53% in May to –0.91% in October. The main components driving the 0.39ppt shift have been a sell-off in commodity prices (–0.43ppts); a more mixed performance on the Australian sharemarket (–0.20ppts); a deterioration in consumers’ unemployment expectations (–0.17ppts), in consumer expectations more generally (–0.10ppts); and a slowdown in monthly hours worked (–0.07ppts).
These negatives have been partially offset by a further improvement in the yield spread following the RBA’s October rate cut (+0.31ppts) and marginal improvements in US industrial production (+0.17ppts) and dwelling approvals (+0.11ppts).
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 3. Westpac expects the Board to hold the cash rate steady at that meeting. The minutes of the November Board meeting signalled that the Board continues to hold a clear easing bias while, for now, remaining in ‘monitor mode’.
We expect that by next February the Board will have received enough information on the impact of the three cuts we have seen since June to acknowledge the need to reduce the cash rate by a further 0.25%, maintain a clear easing bias and consider introducing unconventional policies.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/41208/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Westpac's Leading Index remains below trend

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The growth rate is now materially below trend and is signalling that growth through the first half of 2020 is likely to remain below trend.
That profile is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecasts which have growth in the first half of 2020 at an annualised pace of 2.4% consistent with the overall growth pace in 2020 of 2.4%.
This forecast contrasts with the Reserve Bank’s current forecast of 2.8% although that forecast may be revised when the Bank releases its new forecasts on November 8.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/16/LEADING%20INDEX.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/16/LEADING%20INDEX.jpg" alt="">
The Leading Index growth rate has deteriorated over the last six months from –0.56% in April to –0.92% in September.
The main components driving the 0.36ppt shift have been a further weakening in dwelling approvals (–0.25ppts); a deterioration in consumer sentiment (–0.21ppts); a sell-off in commodity prices (–0.20ppts); and slower growth in monthly hours worked (–0.11ppts).
These negatives have been partially offset by a reduced drag from the yield spread as the RBA’s rate cuts have lowered short term interest rates (+0.24ppts), and a slight improvement in US industrial production (+0.23ppts).
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 5. Westpac expects the Board to hold the cash rate steady at that meeting.
On October 15 the Bank released the minutes of the October Board meeting. The minutes contained a detailed justification for the decision to ease the cash rate from 1% to 0.75% at that meeting.
In particular it emphasised the benefits to the economy of a lower currency and improved cash flow for households, while recognising some potential negative impact on confidence of ultra-low rates.
That issue was subsequently highlighted by the 5.5% fall in the Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Index in response to the October rate cut.
It seems clear that the Board expects to ease rates further although we believe the November meeting will be a little too soon. Westpac continues to expect that the next rate cut will come in February next year.
Read full report '<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/October/er20191016BullLeadingIndex.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac-MI Leading Index September' (PDF 116kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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