John Mcgrath

While house values have rocketed over 2021, apartment values have too quietly shown steady growth over the year to date.

And as house prices continue to escalate and become affordable for many, apartments are becoming a much more attractive, and necessary, proposition, with further growth forecast when international borders open and investors come back in to the market.

Urban recently caught up with John McGrath, who founded McGrath back in 1988, to discuss how the apartment market went in 2021, and how it is shaping up for the next few years.

JC: How have you viewed the performance of the apartment market (established and or off the pl​an) in 2021, and what are the strongest positive and negative factors that will influence outcomes in 2022 and 2023?

JM: There’s no doubt that apartments, other than luxury, have missed much of the price surge that established houses have enjoyed. &nbsp;In many locations we’ve seen houses prices escalate by 35-40% and&nbsp;in those same areas we’ve seen a more modest 5-10% rise in apartment values.

There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, apartments have a larger investment buyer profile &amp; the strongest demand has been from owner occupiers. Also a large percentage of apartments that are not bought by investors sell to first home buyers who generally don’t have the same buying power or discretionary spending that is appearing higher up the price chain.

And finally, in many of the big cities apartments have been hit hard by the closure of international borders &amp; less inflow of migrants &amp; students which have increased vacancy &amp; reduced rental returns momentarily. But I think if anything this makes apartment buying represent better growth in many parts of the country as houses become less affordable and&nbsp;overseas borders open up in 2022.

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JC: What trend (short term or long term) has prompted your greatest enthusiasm for the apartment market, and what is the issue of most concern to you and or your clients?

JM: In general apartment living has replaced the traditional quarter acre aspiration for many Australians due primarily to housing affordability for younger buyers and&nbsp;also an ongoing desire to live in urban, inner city and&nbsp;beachside locations. And whilst COVID has driven many buyers to more remote lifestyle areas there’s no doubt that convenient, secure, low maintenance strata living will continue to be in great demand as we move through the immediate impacts of the pandemic. &nbsp;

And as COVID has changed the way many of us live, many developers have also pivoted &amp; are now designing and&nbsp;buil​ding apartments that cater to the needs of this changing environment. And finally I believe the ideal combination of many empty nesters moving forward will be a great inner city living space along with a getaway within two hours so apartment living will reinvent itself and&nbsp;deliver the population what it wants post-COVID.

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JC:&nbsp;Has urbanisation stalled or what will it look like over the decade ahead?

JM: As more employers and&nbsp;employees discovered that they no longer need to travel to a central location to effectively conduct their work I believe we will find a reduction of 25-35% of the workforces commuting daily to the CBD and&nbsp;commercial centres.

So this will have an impact on many jobs, employees and&nbsp;employers. Ans as many opt for home-based work this will undoubtedly have some impact on the shape of home and&nbsp;work environments &amp; locations.

Proximity to these commercial hubs for a percentage of the population will become less of a priority and&nbsp;lifestyle benefits such as proximity to family, beaches and&nbsp;parks will move up the checklist. But many people still want to be located within a reasonable commute of the many lifestyle benefits located in and around the CBD so I have no doubt that demand for these will continue to be in high demand.

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JC: How important do you view the push for sustainability practices in the apartment market/new housing estates, and what initiative has seized your interest or focus?&nbsp;

JM: With more &amp; more demand for environmental sustainability from all generations there’s no doubt that buildings that are both gentler on the environment and&nbsp;more self-sufficient will become increasingly popular, especially for the younger generations.

As yet we’ve seen some movement in this direction but I expect this to rapidly escalate moving forward due to increasing education and&nbsp;agitation towards a cleaner greener environment. I think we will see this manifest in more environmentally friendly building materials as well as buildings that are less taxing on the planet once built.

Even though much of the demand has been driven from Generation X &amp; Y we are also seeing older generations paying more attention of late which will increase the pressure on developers to build bu​ildings that fall in line with not only council expectations but more importantly the expectations of the community and&nbsp;residents.

"Apartment buying represents better growth in many parts of the country as houses become less affordable and overseas borders open up in 2022."

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Apartment living to reinvent itself post COVID: Five minutes with John McGrath

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John McGrath, the McGrath Estate Agents founder, turned up unannounced at an inner western Sydney auction over the weekend.
He auctioned the $1.825 million home for $175,000 over reserve after volunteering to do the auction himself.
The Sunday Telegraph was there to photograph and report on the auction, given it was set to be a bonanza result for the north shore bound vendors.
A crowd of more than 70 people attended with 20 registering to bid with McGrath listing agent Adrian Tsavalas.
It was McGrath's first known auction for many years, perhaps decades.
“When the Michael Jordan of real estate shows up, you let him do his thing,” Mr Craven, a veteran auctioneer who moved aside to allow McGrath to hold the gavel, told the Sunday Telegraph.
Issues arose however Monday morning when a simple check of NSW Fair Trading licencing revealed <a href="https://www.onegov.nsw.gov.au/publicregister/#/publicregisterdetails/1475-1V4R" target="_blank">John McGrath was no longer licenced to conduct the auction</a>.
Or even perform the mid-week duties of a NSW real estate agent.
McGrath, who in recent times can't take a trick, had inadvertently allowed his licence to lapse last Monday.
He has quickly reportedly sent off the paperwork to retrieve his licence.
Fair Trading provide agents with three months to renew, along with providing some additional education on their responsibilities.
McGrath's longtime weekly column on the Switzer website has recently lapsed with estate agent Charles Tarbey instead likely to pick up the regular expert columnist spot.
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John McGrath oversight sees real estate licence lapse

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Nine Entertainment investigative reporter Kate McClymont has written that John McGrath has quietly sold his last remaining property asset.
She wrote McGrath had offloaded his harbourside penthouse for a reputed $8.5 million. The off-market sale was done through Tasman Fallshaw from City Living. When asked about the sale by McClymont, Mr Fallshaw said because of a confidentiality agreement, “I can’t really talk about it.” McGrath bought the split-level penthouse at the northern end of The Pier at Walsh Bay for $6.95 million in 2011. The three-bedroom, four bathroom apartment which has views of the Harbour Bridge, comes with a 18.5 metre marina berth. It has since emerged John McGrath is reputedly seeking a home so he can get a couple of dogs. He consulted his local Millers Point agent on the unsolicited offer and was advised it was worth taking.
“After living in the Walsh Bay region for well over a decade, I have decided my next venture in property will be to have a house where I can enjoy having a couple of dogs, particularly near parklands," McGrath, 55, told the Wentworth Courier exclusively this morning.
“I had an approach from an agent who had heard that I’d asked body corporate several times for approval to have pets and had been knocked back.
“So a proactive agent called and said they had a buyer.”
 
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John McGrath reportedly sells his Walsh Bay apartment 

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McGrath's biggest institutional backer, Perpetual has further reduced its shareholding in the listing estate agency.
It has sold shares between May 6 and May 29 which took its shareholding down to 7.48 percent.
It had been sitting on 9.04 percent.
Its sale of the 2.6 million shares caught a recent spike following the post election property optimism.
Its shares have risen from a record 20.5 cents low, just before the election, to its current 28 cents level, where it has been since last Wednesday.
In March last year Perpetual sold almost 2.5 million McGrath shares that reduced its stake to 11.6 percent from 14.2 percent.
There has been no advisory from Perpetual on its declining stake.
No doubt one recent factor has been the initial listing stockbroker Bell Potter ceasing its coverage of the estate agency, which means analysis of the stock is no longer done by any stockbroker. 
It was in the 2015 float at $2.10 that Perpetual emerged as a surprise major backer of the McGrath Estate Agents’ initial public offering.
McGrath began public life as a company worth $282 million, which has dipped, along with property prices and fewer star agents, to $47 million.
At $2.10 per share, it equated to 8.8 times forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for fiscal 2016.
The fund managers liked McGrath’s cashed-up position, and its opportunities to expand in a highly fragmented industry.
McGrath shares slumped to $1.72 on its second day of trade in late 2015 with Perpetual taking so-called advantage to increase its shareholding to 9 percent from its initial holding of about 6 percent. 
In September 2017, when McGrath shares were trading at 64¢, Perpetual, along with fellow fund manager Argo, lifted their stake in the real estate group.
The 2017 acquisition saw Perpetual acquire six million shares, taking its overall stake to 14.16 percent from a previous 10.05 percent.
The biggest shareholder remains John McGrath, followed by Aqualand and Tony Denny.
With the company now capitalised at $47 million, McGrath's personal stake is worth a little over $10 million given his near quarter holding.
The float allowed him to pocket $37 million, some of which he quickly spent buying further shares in the agency.
Last March the Central Coast-based property developer, Tony Denny amassed a 5 percent shareholding as a "passive long-term investment" paying around 40¢. Denny <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/82069-for-3-million-central-coast-entrepreneur-tony-denny-buys-5-percent-stake-in-mcgrath" target="_blank">spent $3 million on 7.2 million shares</a> in March last year which took his holding to five percent. 
Aqualand took its stake in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/85531-mcgrath-secure-10-7-million-strategic-investment-by-aqualand" target="_blank">June last year</a>.
They paid 42.5 cents a share for their 25,189,880 shares which totalled $10.7 million.
 
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McGrath's biggest institutional backer, Perpetual reduces its shareholding 

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McGrath Limited has told shareholders that subdued 2019 market conditions have continued to hit its financial profitability.
Trading conditions in March 2019 are currently below expectations, it noted.
The announcement came at 5pm Friday, after the market close when shares were trading at near record lows of 26 cents.
Listed at $2.10 in late 2015, the company share low was 25.5 cents earlier this month, a 52 week low. This morning trading saw shares open at 25 cents. They have dropped to 24 cents in this morning's session.
McGrath's weekend results saw 33 sales and 22 unsold, a total of 55 offerings.
The same weekend last year, albeit without the NSW election distraction, had 167 offerings.
In 2017 it was 140 offerings.
The ASX-listed real estate agency McGrath revealed a further dip in earnings as the company struggles with the housing market downturn. 
“We are disappointed that the real estate sector is facing continued headwinds, exacerbated by the elections, the tighter lending environment and weakening economic conditions affecting our sales business, however our Property Management business continues to perform well,” CEO Geoff Lucas said.
McGrath noted its strong balance sheet position at 28 February 2019, featuring no debt and $14.3m million in cash.
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“The significant reduction in transaction volumes in the real estate sector has continued, however we are seeing signs that sellers are now more prepared to meet the market and interest rates continue to be at historic lows”, he added.
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<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/95431-mcgrath-estate-agents-reports-a-weak-start-to-2019-sales" target="_blank">McGrath stated last month</a> that the continuing subdued property market had impacted the company’s performance, noting that trading conditions since balance date were below expectations, with generally lower listing volumes and average sale prices.
"The subdued market conditions have continued in the second half with recent market data indicating national dwelling values are continuing to fall and transaction volumes remain more than 20% below the prior year in both Sydney and Melbourne markets. 
"The company also foreshadowed in February 2019 that underlying EBITDA for the second half of FY19 was expected to be impacted by ongoing difficult trading conditions, with external factors including NSW and Federal elections, potentially further impacting performance of the property market and McGrath."
Based on the unaudited management accounts year to date, the company has generated an underlying EBITDA loss for the eight months ended 28 February 2019 of $4.5 million, including the seasonally lower January and February months.
It had been reported the company had suffered a loss of $2 million in earnings before interest tax depreciation amortisation (EBITDA) over January and February.
"Market conditions remain difficult to forecast and if current trends continue, further losses in the final quarter are expected," Lucas noted.
 
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McGrath Estate Agents' dip in earnings worsens

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Estate agent John McGrath has returned to selling homes, having stepped down from the day-to-day administration of his ASX-listed estate agency.
He has put his name and phone number to the marketing of the abode billed as Sydney’s No.1 address — the apartment on the tip of the top floor of 1 ­Macquarie St’s Bennelong.
The apartment, long owned by the Moran family of Moran Health Care, has been listed by the Trinity Point, Lake Macquarie property developer, Keith Johnson.
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It was this time last year when Johnson first endeavoured to find a buyer. He and partner Natalie Habib have gutted the 380 sqm 12th floor space along with commissioning an approved design (above) by architect Koichi Takada. They have been through several agents and are now engaging ­McGrath and his sidekick Craig Donohue.
“We can’t sell you the Opera House, but we can sell you the closest thing to it,” their marketing in the Wentworth Courier says. No details have emerged as to its pricing, but there is no doubting its potential having set prior records.
The per square metre price record stands at $96,000 a square metre when $27 million was paid off-the-plan in the nearby Opera Residences by the former chief of Tenix, Robert Salteri and his wife Kelly. The top price sits at Crown Resorts’ $60 million sale to James Packer in One Barangaroo.
John McGrath’s last marketing listing was an apartment in The Ritz in Cremorne Point in 2008 at $29 million.
“I am starting to enjoy the feel of the business again,” McGrath said last month. “Despite the fact that it’s been annus horribilis for us, no doubt, we are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,” he told shareholders who have witnessed the share price drop from $2.10 on floating in 2015 to around 30c.
McGrath’s biggest sale ever was the Point Piper house, nicknamed the Bang and Olufsen house, in 1990 for $11.25 million. It was in conjunction with the veteran Bart Doff who recently secured the $58 million Rona, Bellevue Hill sale. McGrath also continues to train young estate agents.
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Sydney's number one penthouse hits the market through John McGrath

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The ASX-listed real estate agency McGrath has commenced an expansionary push into rent rolls to underpin its desired recovery in the current downturn.
Its chief executive Geoff Lucas said the company had acquired two rent rolls. McGrath last reported almost 7,500 properties under management.
It has been reported that they were being bought "under market value."
Lucas indicated many agencies were trying to offload rent rolls as they focused their attention on securing sales during the downturn.
"Increasingly we are seeing real estate business owners seeking to return to a role of real estate sales agent without the attendant issues of running a business in a difficult environment," he said at the meeting.
"As a result an increasing number of rent rolls with sales businesses attached are beginning to come to market."
Lucas reportedly said McGrath had purchased the latest two new small rent rolls at below market valuation, although he declined to comment on the price paid or the number of extra rental agreements secured.
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"With currently $16 million in cash and one of Australia’s largest rent rolls that would typically be valued at between $45 and $55 million and zero debt, we’re well placed to make prudent and strategic acquisitions," he said.
Trading at 31 cents, the company market capitalisation is $54 million.
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Fund manager shareholder East 72's representative Andrew Brown challenged the rent roll acquisitions, according to The Australian Financial Review.
"The performance [of the rent roll] is pretty disappointing ... the average return has gone down as well. Why are we acquiring more? What is the competitive advantage in managing rent rolls?"
New chairman Peter Lewis admitted the year was not "stellar" in sales or property management but said both those businesses were now stabilised.
It was time to achieve economies of scale, Lewis said.
Mr Lucas attributed the weakness of its rent roll previously to the falling number of agents over the years, which crimped referrals from landlords and the natural attrition of agreement expiration, both of which were no longer posing problems.
In McGrath's 2015 listing prospectus, the rent roll held by company-owned agencies made up 11 per cent of pre-tax and interest profits (EBITDA), while sales commissions from company-owned agencies were 71 per cent of the firm's profits.
In 2012 McGrath had 5500 rent roll properties.
Industry estate agents collect about five per cent of rents as their fee for managing properties, which is typically the licensee's most stable source of income.
Critics of the McGrath prospectus indicated the true value of a real estate agency was in the rent roll, not sales listings nor office fixtures or fittings. 
At the time of the float the value of rent rolls reflected ratios from $3.00 to $4.00 on a dollar income per annum, having jumped from $2.75 over the prior two years. 
There are variations as rent rolls in Queensland are more likely $2.20 to $2.80.
John McGrath, the founder of the company, told the meeting he was back helping with the listing of homes.
He has especially sought to assist agents struggling to get prestige listings from the eastern suburbs office.
He remains engaged with agent training too.
"My mandate now is to grow the marketing areas of the business, that's where I add the most value," he said.
"It wasn't always that way but I am enjoying it again ... I am starting to enjoy the feel of the business again."
McGrath told Friday's annual general meeting the worst of the housing downturn had passed.
McGrath said that prices would fall only a few percentage points further, 2 to 3 per cent.
The company endured a horror year in which it fell to a $63 million loss.
“Despite the fact that it’s been annus horribilis for us, no doubt, we are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.
McGrath, who has been through five cycles in his 35-year career, said the market was one year into a correction period that would run for about two years.
“I think we’re getting towards the bottom of the market,” he said.
“It may get a little bit worse before it gets better but I think that most of the price correction has been seen already … you might see 2-3 per cent more in Sydney come off,” he said.
 
 
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Rent roll expansion to underpin McGrath's desired recovery amid downturn 

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McGrath Limited has provided shareholders with a trading update in light of deteriorating market.
Impacted by the tougher real estate market across Australia, it noted auction clearance rates and the number of properties taken to auction were at levels well below the previous year.
It further noted there has been an increase in the level of overall stock currently on the market with lower buyer activity, along with homes taking longer to sell and price reductions across the sector.
After the announcement McGrath shares traded at 31 cents and closed at a record low of 32 cents.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/24/Mcgrath5.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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It was December 2015 when, some two decades in the making, the real estate services company commenced trading on the stock market.
Its initial trading price was $1.94, slightly below the public offering price at $2.10.
Today it noted industrywide data that in the past year saw the number of settled sales in the Sydney having fallen 18.5%, in Melbourne by 15.8% and Brisbane by 11%.
"The NSW and Queensland property markets represent the majority of McGrath’s footprint, with 83% of company owned and franchised listings occurring in these two states," Geoff Lucas advised.
“Over the financial year to date, we have seen a noticeable slowdown in the market with a correction of residential property values experienced across the entire real estate sector.
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"While McGrath has also been affected by this downturn, we are encouraged by our number of new listings performing better than the market,” he noted.
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Lucas noted over Q1 FY19, McGrath NSW market new listings were down just 6.9% while Queensland listings were flat.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/24/mcgrath1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Properties are taking longer to transact due to the softening market conditions with average days on market for McGrath company owned offices in being 42 days, compared with an average of 34 in the FY18 corresponding period.
Days on market for the McGrath network in Q1 was 54 compared with an average of 47 in the FY18 corresponding period.
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The impact of market conditions and McGrath’s performance detailed above resulted in an EBITDA loss of $1.9 million for the quarter ended 30 September 2018.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/24/mcgrath4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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The quarter ended 30 September is a historically slow quarter for the Company, the company expects a materially smaller loss in the second quarter of FY19.
It will provide a further update at the annual general meeting on 23 November.
Agent numbers within McGrath’s company owned offices have been increasing, reflecting the successful recruitment and retention initiatives put in place, with 154 agents at 31 March 2018, growing to 157 at 30 June 2018, and 168 at 30 September 2018.
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McGrath shares trading at fresh 32 cent record lows

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Real estate agent John McGrath has says not to panic if you bought at peak times in Sydney and Melbourne last year.
"It won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound," McGrath said in his latest Switzer column, adding the worst was already over.
McGrath said if you bought at the peaks of the market, around mid-year 2017 for Sydney and late 2017 for Melbourne, not to despair.
"If you’re in this boat, I understand your disappointment in terms of timing but please don’t despair," McGrath said, suggesting no one can pick the top, even himself, the 35 year real estate veteran.
"Unfortunately, in boom markets, there will always be people who happen to exchange at the peak but try to remember you are one of many – thousands of people did the same thing.
"What’s important now is for you not to panic and to look at the situation objectively," McGrath advised.
He said it won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound.
"These are two major international cities with many unique factors keeping property prices strong," McGrath suggested, saying you shouldn't feel too compelled to get out.
"You just have to be patient while the magic of capital growth takes effect." 
He said you should stop worrying if you're an owner-occupier.
"You have a new home to enjoy for as long as you can afford your payments in what continues to be a low interest rate environment.
"If the capital value of your home has come back a bit, it doesn’t matter because you’re going to be there long term and prices will eventually rise again." 
He noted that if you're an investor and have bought for different reasons, you've got to hang in there, suggesting that all that has changed is the amount of time your asset needs to bear fruit.
"We’re in the winter period now but the sun will come out again.
"Whether you invest in shares, managed funds, property or any other asset class, there are always going to be highs and lows.
"Smart investors ride out the lows," McGrath said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Bought at the top? It won't take long for Sydney and Melbourne to rebound: John McGrath

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GUEST OBSERVATION
This is an email McGrath sent to his estate agents on Tuesday.
There was a piece on 60 Minutes that was particularly misleading in my opinion and unsurprisingly melodramatic in its depiction of a property market that could shortly spiral out of control.  It’s simply not the case.
In fact, barring any macro-economic disaster like we saw when the GFC took us all by surprise, I believe the property market has seen most of the value declines it is going to see this cycle (in many markets there has been a 5% to 10% decline in values this year and I think we may see another 5% to 7% in some areas) and at the end of that there will either be a steady state period of market stability or even a small positive rebound back by a few percent.  I say this having now experienced five property cycles in my 35 years real estate career and each time, often at around this stage of the cycle, hearing the same old headline grabbing commentary by one of two so-called experts saying something like “the Australian property market is in a bubble and when it bursts will fall by 40% etc.!” Which of course has never happened and unless we see a total financial catastrophe engulf the entire world is never going to happen.  Two questions that I get asked when I have this discussion.  “Why then do they say this and why do you think they are they wrong?” So the first one is the easiest one. Generally speaking the sponsors of such theories are seeking self-promotion.  They put their views forward in some form of press release aimed to grab media attention (the 60 Minutes story was called 'Bricks and Slaughter!') and inevitably are looking to promote a book or attract eyeballs to their website.  Steve Keen predicted a 40% drop in 2010, Johnathan Tepper predicted a 30% to 50% drop in 2016. Of course, none have even been close to accurate.  In fact, they have been ridiculously inaccurate on every occasion. And why are they going to be wrong again this time?  Well firstly you would have to interrogate what would have to happen for their theory would have any validity whatsoever. Firstly, two out of three Australians own their own home or are living in a home with the owner and one in three are in a rented place. Of the 66% who own their home, half of these homes are fully paid off with no loan whatsoever. Just park that fact for the moment but it should make you feel that property is on a very solid footing. Next let’s look at the generational change occurring – where many Baby Boomers (aged 60 to 75 approximately) are assisting their children secure a first home and of course as the life cycle turns, many will also be leaving their often-considerable assets to their kids.  And in the main most Australians are wealthier than ever before through their property, other assets or indeed inheritance. Statistically, the average Australian is worth around $395,000 which is at record highs. Next, let’s look at the underlying factors that we are experiencing today that may affect property, negatively or positively. We are enjoying a robust economy, low levels of unemployment, record low interest rates and significant overseas immigration and investment. None of these are likely to change significantly into the future. After all, we are the lucky country. So, when you combine the strong levels of home ownership with the robust economic and social markers it’s easy to see why the negative pundits have consistently got it wrong. Australian real estate is one of the best investments on the planet and that isn’t changing. Now I do have concern with housing affordability however. Despite the average Australian being technically wealthier than ever before there is no doubt that the ability for many Australians to buy their own property and in many instances even rent their own property is challenging. And this situation needs to be addresses urgently by both the Governments (Federal and State) as well as the private sector. What has been and will continue to be most Australians’ best financial freedom strategy, residential property, does have another side which must be addressed. Every Australian should have a path to securing shelter for themselves and their family and this issue will need strong collaboration by both private and public sectors to ensure we achieve this.  And at McGrath we are in a great position to assist and influence positive outcomes in this space. And we will.
John McGrath is the founder of McGrath Estate Agents.
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