Jobkeeper

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The Real Estate Institute of Australia has welcomed the extension of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments beyond September.
Today’s announcement by the Prime Minister and Treasurer provides businesses and individuals with a much needed lifeline in our industry, the economy and the community for the coming months.
The extension of JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments were identified as the two main areas of support required in a survey the Real Estate Institute of Australia’s member Real Estate Institutes undertook of their members. These were subsequently highlighted in a submission to the Government.
REIA applauded the introduction of the JobKeeper as it kept many employed in the real estate sector. Many of these employees have been engaged in providing the essential service of keeping tenants housed during the pandemic.
With some 3.3 million properties that are rented or available for rent across Australia the extension of JobKeeper and JobSeeker will do much to ease the stress and anxiety that many tenants are feeling at this time. Many of these are rented by people who have lost their jobs in industries that will be slow to recover.
The extension of JobKeeper and JobSeeker will play a vital role in helping Australians plan for recovery and rebuilding from the impact of COVID-19.
ADRIAN KELLY is the President of the Real Estate Institute of Australia
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REIA welcomes JobKeeper and JobSeeker extensions: Adrian Kelly

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GUEST OBSERVATION
When it comes to the outlook for employment, there’s good news and bad news.
To begin with the good news: with a bit of luck, the next few months will see the fastest expansion of employment in Australia’s history.
The bad news? Well, there’s virtually no chance it will be enough to get employment to where it was in March, before the COVID-19 shutdown.
In fact, even on a best-case scenario it’s likely by the end of September we will only be back to the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions.
The best-case scenario
Other Bureau of Statistics data suggests that between mid-March and mid-April employment fell <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EEze6-rwkdcKgJ0iLWD7PfmWoMz8ob6Q/view">1.3 to 1.6 million</a>.
<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-hopes-850-000-back-at-work-by-july-20200508-p54r12">Treasury</a> estimates that the planned reopening of the economy will result in a bounceback of 850,000 jobs.
Suppose that a decrease of 1.3 million turns out to be the trough and recovery is uninterrupted.
Employment at the end of September would then be 440,000 below where it was in March, 3.4% lower.
The turnaround would be a considerable achievement.
But even if it happens, we will have only recovered to around the worst points of the 1980s and 1990s recessions, where employment decreased by about 4 per cent.
Employment won’t recover fully in this best-case scenario because some parts of the economy will still be shut down (including international travel) and COVID-19 will continue to cause many consumers to spend less than usual.
That best case is unlikely
There are several reasons to worry about whether the best-case can be achieved.
First, job gains from reopening businesses are likely to be offset by losses in employment in other industries suffering from reduced consumer demand and business investment.
While cafes and restaurants may start up again, Bureau of Statistics data shows that employment has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6160.0.55.001Main%20Features5Week%20ending%202%20May%202020?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6160.0.55.001&amp;issue=Week%20ending%202%20May%202020&amp;num=&amp;">begun to decline</a> in large industries such as construction and professional services.
Second, the effects of reopening may not be all we expect. Labour hoarding – where businesses retain more workers than needed during an economic downturn - might mean that reopening doesn’t translate into as many new jobs as expected.
This is likely to be particularly acute given that JobKeeper has effectively paid employers to subsidise labour.
Third, impacts from longer-run structural changes in the economy might begin to cause employment losses, especially as JobKeeper is partially unwound.
So what are we to do?
Even under the best-case scenario employment will be substantially lower than before COVID-19 well into the future. And we can’t presume the best-case will happen. A compelling case exists for substantial ongoing economic stimulus post-September 2020.
The labour market will not have fully recovered by then. To remove stimulus would only set back recovery. The question therefore should not be: is stimulus needed, but rather, what size and type of stimulus is needed.
Continuing JobKeeper beyond September 2020 could have an important role in providing income security to affected workers and macroeconomic stimulus.
It is a known policy, it operates effectively, and it appears to have community support. Replacing it with an alternative type of stimulus could risk harming confidence and the recovery.
We can’t simply end JobKeeper
An extra (and considerable) advantage of continuing JobKeeper is allowing time for a staged transition away from it. Stopping it will inevitably push up unemployment.
A staged transition would spread out that adjustment rather than creating a shock in September.
A transition from JobKeeper could be done via stepped decreases in the size of payment or progressively restricting eligibility as industries or businesses recover. The transition could begin at the end of September, or earlier if it is judged that employment is likely to have already recovered substantially before then.
An objection to retaining JobKeeper is that it is preventing adjustment in the labour market, and disrupting the normal process of businesses starting up and failing.
There are two responses.
First, the question is not about whether JobKeeper should be permanent, but about the timing of its removal.
Whenever it is (or starts to be) removed, labour mobility will return and any firms on life support will disappear. Having this happen via a staged transition is better than having it happen all at once.
Second, the potential economic losses from unemployment in a depressed economy swamp the potential losses from having inefficient firms operating for longer.
Our number one priority has to be maintaining and restoring employment.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139648/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeff-borland-1079">Jeff Borland</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-even-the-best-case-for-jobs-isnt-good-well-need-more-jobkeeper-139648">original article</a>.
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Why even the best case for jobs isn't good, we'll need more JobKeeper

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GUEST OBSERVATION
No Australian government has ever spent A$130 billion so quickly.
Last Tuesday, when the Prime Minister announced the government would subsidise six million jobs for six months to the tune of $1,500 a fortnight, the nation’s economists were left speechless.
Today, the government unveiled <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/labor-to-support-jobkeeper-package-despite-ineligibility-of-1m-casuals">the legislation</a> to be considered by the parliament tomorrow.
In ordinary times, there wouldn’t be a lot of support for a $130 billion wage subsidy. But these aren’t ordinary times.
Whole sectors of the economy have shut down, either directly as part of the health response to the pandemic, or indirectly as part of a wave of knock-on effects.
The JobKeeper wage subsidies will give <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Fact_sheet_supporting_businesses_0.pdf">direct support</a> to the worst-affected businesses and jobs, helping to keep the economic damage to a minimum. The package isn’t perfect. But it’s a far better response than had been feared.
It will help keep the Australian economy afloat over the next six months, putting it in a position to bounce back when health officials deem it safe to reopen parts of the economy for business.
It has three key features:
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businesses get $1,500 per fortnight per worker (only for those workers who were employed on March 1. Short-term casuals with the business and some visa holders are excluded)
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<li>
the employer has to keep those workers on the books and pay them at least $1,500 per fortnight
</li>
<li>
it only applies to businesses whose revenue has collapsed by at least 30% (15% for charities and not-for-profits, 50% for the largest businesses, with banks excluded).
</li>
</ul>
To be effective, it has to deliver on three goals:
<ul>
<li>
to support workers’ incomes through the crisis
</li>
<li>
to keep workers attached to firms, preserving as many job-specific skills and as much know-how as possible
</li>
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to prevent wide-scale business failures which could turn a short and sharp recession into a long and painful depression.
</li>
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Importantly, this means if it’s working well, both workers and employers will get something out of the deal.
At firms that would otherwise have shut down, workers will benefit considerably.
Many workers will get paid more
The $1,500 payment will give them much more than the Newstart payment they would have received if laid off, even the doubled Newstart (now called JobSeeker) which for six months has been paired with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/scalable-without-limit-how-the-government-plans-to-get-coronavirus-support-into-our-hands-quickly-134353">Coronavirus supplement</a> lifting it from $565.70 to $1,115.60 per fortnight.
And for the one third of workers otherwise earning less than $1,500 per fortnight, the JobKeeper payment will be a pay rise. If the subsidy keeps their firm afloat, they’ll keep their job and be paid even more than before for the next six months.
It’s possible those earning more than $1,500 per fortnight will earn less than they did before in pay and benefits, depending on what the government does with the Fair Work Act.
 
Exactly how it works out for workers who get JobKeeper will depend on the labour market. On one hand, they will be more attractive to employers because their employment comes with a big subsidy that new hires don’t bring with them. On the other hand, they might have few alternative employers to turn to. Jobs might be hard to find.
They’ll get to keep their jobs
Regardless, even if their pay is reduced, their situation will be much better than under the renamed Newstart. And to the extent that cutting their pay helps to keep the firm viable, it will secure a job for them on the other side.
Employers will also benefit. If a business stays open, it will get the benefit of its workers’ labour for free or at a big discount. It might look like corporate welfare, but it’s a feature, not a bug.
A key objective of the scheme is to plug the hole in firms’ revenues to prevent them going under. Most would have been viable if it weren’t for the necessary public health measures governments have taken. Allowing them to fail would mean a pointless destruction of valuable resources.
The wage subsidy is somewhat crude and inevitably there will be some waste. Some firms will be given more money than they need, some workers will be given more, some less.
It was never going to be perfect
Given more time, the treasury could have designed something better targeted, less wasteful. It didn’t have it. The economy has never experienced so sudden a collapse.
But there are a few simple things the government could do to make it better.
It could include short-term casuals and visa holders, and it should take care not to weaken the Fair Work Act.
JobKeeper won’t prevent a serious contraction in the Australian economy, but it should give us a very good chance to bounce back on the other side.
<hr>
We would like to thank Jeff Borland for his comments on a draft version of this article.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135195/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-hamilton-155869">Steven Hamilton</a>, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-preston-452859">Bruce Preston</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-edmond-673265">Chris Edmond</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-melbourne-722">University of Melbourne</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/jobkeeper-is-quick-dirty-and-effective-there-was-no-time-to-make-it-perfect-135195">original article</a>.
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JobKeeper is quick, dirty and effective, there was no time for perfection

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid an extraordinary economic slowdown, the Australian economy is heading for its first recession in almost 30 years.
Indicators suggest this fall in demand is starting to weigh on the property market. But a frequent stream of monetary, fiscal and social policies are being rolled out in an attempt to soften the blow to the broader economy, which will also help to insulate housing markets.
Over March, the JobSeeker payment was increased by $550 per fortnight, effectively doubling the highest allowance. Additionally, on the 30th of March, a $130 billion wage subsidy payment was announced, which would see employers receive $1,500 per employee per fortnight.
For eligible employers and employees, workers would receive a gross wage supplement of $1,500 before tax on a fortnightly basis.
The game-changing package has led Westpac economists to reduce their forecast for peak unemployment from 17.0%, down to 9.0%.
This will ultimately lessen downward pressure on housing demand, as more people are able to retain their job during and after the COVID-19 shutdown.
How many rentals are ‘affordable’ on the JobKeeper package?
The JobKeeper subsidy may also see fewer households fall into housing affordability stress.
Housing affordability stress is a situation where households expend more than 30% of income on housing costs, such as rent. To understand how many households may be better off, it is worth considering how many rentals are currently able to be serviced on 30% of the JobKeeper payment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/6/TABLE%201.png" alt="">
Table 1 (pictured above) shows the portion of the rental market in capital city and regional areas that could be serviced by an individual using just 30% of the JobKeeper or JobSeeker payments (i.e, what portion of the rental market can be rented for $450 per fortnight, or $330 per fortnight).
In considering typical household composition, Table 2 (pictured below) reflects the same analysis for a couple both receiving a benefit.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/6/TABLE%202.png" alt="">
The analysis does not take into account tax on the JobKeeper payment, or voluntary employer top-ups of the JobKeeper amount.
The data highlights that the JobKeeper payments significantly increase the portion of affordable private rentals in Australia.
Flat payments are proportionately beneficial for renting households where rents are cheaper, such as in Regional Tasmania and South Australia.
Incidentally, these are areas that may be more severely impacted by the economic slowdown in terms of the concentration of the labour force in agriculture, food service, tourism and accommodation.
But even with the relatively small portion of rental properties being affordable elsewhere, it is likely that current social distancing measures would see less discretionary spending, enabling a higher portion of income to be used in servicing rent.
Additionally, further protections for renters are in the works. On the 29th of March, federal and state leaders announced a 6 month moratorium on residential and commercial tenant evictions, for households in financial stress who cannot meet payments because of the coronavirus impact.
At a press conference the next day, Prime Minister Morrison made an allusion to further rental assistance, such as a rent guarantee, but such details were “still being worked through”. This would ease pressure on renters to service their full rent commitments, however the impact on landlords remains uncertain. Another note on this data is that it reflects rental valuations as of early April.
As income and job prospects decline, the private rental market will likely see a downwards adjustment, with landlords of vacant properties potentially having to lower rents in order to meet the market.
A final takeaway from this data may be that now is an opportune time to explore more social and affordable housing supply.
As well as added benefits to the construction sector, the government could look to create housing supply that compliments the payments being offered to renters. 
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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New fiscal policies shift outlook for rental housing: Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Events have been moving quickly in the Australian economy.
With the announcement of the Australian Government’s latest JobKeeper Payment (JKP) policy and further tightening of social distancing guidelines we have reviewed our employment, GDP, and Budget deficit forecasts.
Key forecasts had been: a peak in the unemployment rate of 11.1% in the June quarter; a GDP contraction of 3.5% in the June quarter; and the likely issuance of an additional $250bn in Australian government bonds over 2019/20 and 2020/21.
In reviewing those forecasts we have maintained the approach of assessing employment and output across industry sectors to arrive at a more granular estimate of the impact of the various government policies on the Australian economy.
We also maintain our core view that while the intensity of the policies to address the virus will peak near the end of the June quarter, most policies will be maintained through the September quarter and the recovery will be delayed until the December quarter. Conditions in the global economy will remain very weak until well into the December quarter.
With the shutdowns and social distancing policies being tightened we now expect a much more severe impact on the output of most industries.
As expected, the most seriously affected industries are likely to be: retail; accommodation; restaurants; transport; recreation; and real estate. However we also expect negative impacts for other industries including manufacturing; construction; and distribution. Other industries such as health, government, and telecommunications will see a lift in employment and output.
We expect GDP will now contract by 8.5% in the June quarter; to be followed by a 0.6% contraction in the September quarter; and a 5.2% lift in the December quarter.
Overall, the economy is expected to contract by 5% through the 2020 year.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/42804/16785/" target="_blank">Chief Economist at Westpac</a>
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