Job Market

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<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>Job ads were down by -16.4 per cent or -18,400 in April, on a trend basis.</span><br><br><span>It's comfortably the largest fall since the series began in January 2006.</span></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q35jEtsikg4/XsSE29lhhnI/AAAAAAAA1zY/rzBpzl5sB6M43RJ-2BIFn8jzFyj6QaTTACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409"></a></div>
<p><span>In New South Wales, vacancies have gone from 70k at the cyclical peak to 22k.</span></p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LfE8GC9eDfQ/XsSE3NbSCiI/AAAAAAAA1zc/miEm0vt-ge0IAGuM0GaOsecptiXgih29wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1386"></p>
<div>Dreadful numbers, which suggest that the unemployment rate will roughly go from 5 to 10 per cent. </div>
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<div>Australia has done a wonderful job of flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases, to the extent that there are only 9 (nine) cases remaining in ICU. </div>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RCwkp7NkKL4/XsSFV9guKUI/AAAAAAAA1zo/UwIbpjtg2T4NdZQa8L3pvwxmsgddJaadQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409"></p>
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<div>Time to reopen the economy, and then the borders...with quarantine.</div>
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<div>Sensibly managed, Australia will be in a stronger position than ever to welcome the world's best and brightest. </div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Largest fall in job ads ever recorded: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
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<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
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<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
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<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
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<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
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<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
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<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
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<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
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<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
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<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
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<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
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<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
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<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
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<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
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<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The Morrison government has announced $2 billion – to be augmented by another $500 million from the states – for a skills package to boost training and job creation.</p>
<p>A $1 billion JobTrainer program will provide training or re-skilling for up to 340,700 school leavers and job seekers. Places for courses will be available from September.</p>
<p>This is to be funded on a 50-50 basis with the states. The government says there has been early support from most states after Scott Morrison raised the plan at national cabinet last week.</p>
<p>To get the JobTrainer funding the states will need to sign up to an agreement to reform their vocational education and training systems. Morrison has previously said the VET system needs to be simplified and better attuned to the skills employers are seeking.</p>
<p>The start of the courses would come just before with the scaling back of government COVID support measures. Not only are a huge number of unemployed in the job market but school leavers looking for jobs will find it extremely difficult.</p>
<p>The package also includes an extra $1.5 billion to expand and extend the wage subsidy for apprentices and trainees. This follows $1.3 billion announced in March.</p>
<p>The subsidy now supports 47,000 employers with 81,000 apprentices and trainees - the expansion will take this to nearly 90,000 businesses and 180,000 apprentices.</p>
<p>Eligibility will be widened from small businesses to medium-sized businesses with 199 or fewer employees. The subsidised apprentices will have had to be in place from July 1.</p>
<p>The program will also be extended by six months to the end of March.</p>
<p>The subsidy covers half the apprentice’s wages up to $7,000 a quarter.</p>
<p>Already $365 million has been paid out under the program.</p>
<p>The JobTrainer courses will be free or low cost and aimed at areas of need. These areas will be identified by the National Skills Commission in consultation with the states.</p>
<p>Morrison said: “COVID-19 is unprecedented but I want Australians to be ready for the sorts of jobs that will come as we build back and recover. The jobs and skills we’ll need as we come out of the crisis are not likely to be the same as those that were lost.”</p>
<p>Current sectors looking to expand their workforces include health care and social assistance; transport, postal and warehousing; manufacturing; and retail and wholesale trade.</p>
<p>The courses will be delivered by public, private and not-for-profit providers.</p>
<p>Speaking on Melbourne radio on Wednesday, Morrison again made it clear the government will avoid a hard cut off of assistance at the end of September. He said it would continue to provide income support to those who needed it.</p>
<p>“And obviously in Melbourne in particular, that demand is going to be very great now for some period of time.”<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/142763/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michelle-grattan-20316">Michelle Grattan</a>, Professorial Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canberra-865">University of Canberra</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-announces-2-5-billion-package-to-support-training-and-apprenticeships-142763">original article</a>.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Government announces $2.5 billion package to support training and apprenticeships

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Ordinarily this data would be considered ‘current’. But given that many parts of the economy have re-opened in the past 17 days – and more parts are expected to re-open in coming weeks – to some extent the jobs data is ancient history. Jobs slumped over March, April and early May as businesses went into hibernation. But job gains are expected from this month on as businesses re-open and workers re-join their employers. Certainly what we do know is that the number of payroll jobs rose by 1 per cent in May, lifting 0.4 per cent in the last week of the month alone.</p>
<p>The stimulus measures from governments and the central bank have all been directed at keeping people connected to their workplace. JobKeeper, and the expanded JobSeeker programs have been vital in that regard. Now the aim is to get people out of their homes and back at workstations. And the work support programs must stay in place to ensure that employers and employees have adequate opportunity to seamlessly move from hibernation to ‘normalcy’ – whatever that now means in the post-COVID-19 environment.</p>
<p>What is happening in the figures is that almost 230,000 weren’t registered as employed in May – they didn’t work more than hour a week in the reference week. But all those JobSeeker and JobKeeper recipients didn’t join the dole queue rather they “left” the workforce – they were neither employed or unemployed in the month. That is evidenced by the slump in the participation rate. Rather the JobKeeper and JobSeeker beneficiaries stayed home, and waited for the economy to re-start so they could return to workplaces.</p>
<p>While the jobless rate rose to 7.1 per cent, clearly it would have been far higher without JobSeeker and JobKeeper. The great hope is that the job losses that have occurred prove to be only temporary and that the re-opening of the economy is indeed successful.</p>
<p>The best way to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the job market is in terms of the number of hours worked. Hours worked fell 0.7 per cent after slumping by a record 9.5 per cent, and that accords with expectations that the economy will contract 10 per cent in the first half of 2020.</p>
<p>Many people have kept their jobs because of the JobKeeper program. So while those on the program are still ‘employed’ and deriving an income of sorts, they are not working, not adding to the output of businesses, and not adding to overall economic activity. The JobKeeper program keeps people connected to their employers, which is positive for the recovery phase. But the payments also ensure that people can spend and therefore serve to keep others in jobs and keep the economy moving.</p>
<p>The jobless rate is expected to peak near 8 per cent. And many forecasters expect the economy to contract 8-10 per cent in the first half of 2020. But provided social distancing is maintained with good hand hygiene and significant CONVID-19 testing, there is no reason that a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery can’t occur as lockdown restrictions ease.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, the closure of our foreign borders will have a range of effects on the economy. Around 150,000 people come to Australia each year on different visas and do the jobs that Australians can’t or won’t do. If the jobs aren’t filled, then this could slow business output and economic output. But the absence, or reduced number, of migrants could serve to keep the jobless rate down if Aussies take up the jobs that they have shunned in the past.</p>
<p>The drop in jobs masks the impact – and future impact – on incomes. People have lost income and there is little hope for a lift in wages in the months ahead. Add in the deferral of dividend payments by listed companies and little or no interest income and there may be scope for ‘top up’ cash handouts by the Government. Today’s data adds to the case of governments maintaining as much support as possible until it is definitely no longer required.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br><em>Labour force – May</em></p>
<p>Employment fell by 227,700 in May after falling by a record 607,400 in April (previously reported as 594,300 decline). Full-time jobs fell by 89,100 and part-time jobs fell by 138,600.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate rose from 6.2 per cent to 7.1 per cent in May. It was the highest jobless rate in almost 19 years (since October 2001).</p>
<p>Hours worked fell by 0.7 per cent in May after falling by a record 9.2 per cent in April. Hours worked are down by a record 9 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>The participation rate fell from 63.6 per cent to a 19½-year low of 62.9 per cent in May.</p>
<p>Spare capacity: In May, the underutilisation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to a record 20.2 per cent. The underemployment rate decreased from 13.8 per cent to 13.1 per cent.</p>
<p>Unemployment across states in May: NSW 6.4 per cent (April 6.3 per cent); Victoria 6.9 per cent (6.0 per cent); Queensland 7.9 per cent (7.0 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.2 per cent); Western Australia 8.1 per cent (6.1 per cent); Tasmania 6.4 per cent (6.2 per cent); Northern Territory 7.4 per cent (5.6 per cent); ACT 4.1 per cent (4.3 per cent).</p>
<p>Biggest job losses occurred in Victoria (70,800); New South Wales (43,900); Western Australia (30,200); and Queensland (28,100).</p>
<p>Participation rate: The male participation rate of 68.1 per cent was a record low. The female participation rate of 58.4 per cent was the lowest in 13½ years (since December 2006).</p>
<p>Notable highs for the jobless rate: NSW (highest since May 2009); Victoria (highest since October 2014); Queensland (highest since January 2002); Western Australia (highest since June 2001); Northern Territory (highest since September 2014).</p>
<p>“The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 2.6 pts to 59.9 per cent in May. Employment for 15-24 year olds decreased by 102,900 people (-6.0 per cent). The unemployment rate for this group increased 2.0 pts to 16.1 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>
<p>People are returning to their workplaces as businesses re-open. Lockdown restrictions continue to ease on evidence that the health strategy is working. So there are reasons for optimism. But we aren’t there yet – there will be challenges ahead.</p>
<p>It is important that we adhere to social distancing, maintain good hands hygiene and remain active in COVID tracking and tracing. Continued success in eliminating active COVID cases means that the economy can bounce back. But sharemarket investors need to remain a cautious stance, given the multiple challenges ahead.</p>
<p>Employment for 15-24 year olds fell by almost 103,000 in May, accounting for around just half of all the job losses. Governments will need to a close eye on this demographic to determine if further targeted stimulus measures are required. One area that could be targeted is the university sector with more places offered to local students given declining international student numbers. The last thing you want is for young Aussies to become entrenched in unemployment.</p>
<p><strong>CRAIG JAMES</strong>,<em>Chief Economist, CommSec</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Jobs slide again but there's hope for a rebound: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Employment rose by 26,700 jobs in February – after increasing by 12,900 in January (previously estimated at +13,500). Full-time jobs rose by 6,700 with part-time jobs up by 20,000. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 8,000 and a jobless rate near 5.3 per cent.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.29 per cent (to two decimal places) in January to 5.10 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms, the jobless rate was steady at 5.1 per cent in February.</p>
<p>Hours worked fell by 3.0 per cent in February, but were up by 0.5 per cent over the year. In trend terms, hours worked were up by 0.8 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>Participation rate: The participation rate eased from 66.1 per cent to 66.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms the participation rate was steady at 66.0 per cent.</p>
<p>Unemployment across states in February: NSW 4.6 per cent (January 4.5 per cent); Victoria 5.3 per cent (5.4 per cent); Queensland 5.6 per cent (6.2 per cent); South Australia 5.8 per cent (5.7 per cent); Western Australia 5.2 per cent (5.7 per cent); Tasmania 5.0 per cent (5.7 per cent). In trend terms, Northern Territory 5.5 per cent (5.5 per cent); ACT 2.9 per cent (3.0 per cent).</p>
<p><strong>What does it all mean?</strong></p>
<p>To some extent today's data is ancient history. The COVID-19 coronavirus crisis really started to impact the broader economy in March. The impact of the virus in February was largely on tourism-dependent businesses and regions, and on the education sector. However the February jobs data would have also incorporated the effects of the bushfires that impacted so many of the country's regions..</p>
<p>That said, there was a positive lead for today's jobs figures from the January Department of Employment skilled vacancies series. And while a lot has happened over March, the jobs data for February – just like the retail trade figures – were indeed encouraging. And especially of encouragement was data showing the female jobless rate equalling the lowest rate in 11 years. And while monthly job figures at a state level are volatile, Tasmania's jobless rate is the lowest for over 8 years with Western Australia's jobless rate the lowest rate in over 5 years. The ACT's trend jobless rate is the lowest in 11 years.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics "confirmed that the disruption from the bushfires did not have a notable impact on key headline statistics".</p>
<p>The outlook for the job market is challenging. While supermarkets, grocery wholesalers and transport groups are looking to hire staff, airlines, hospitality, sporting and cultural sectors will struggle to retain workers. So the next Federal Government support package will be super-important. It will be important for the Government to do all that it takes to keep Aussies in jobs.</p>
<p>It serves no value – and indeed it may be misleading – to try and forecast in the current environment. Much will depend on how quickly active coronavirus cases peak in Australia, how aggressive State and Federal governments are in supporting businesses and how quickly vaccines and treatments are developed to deal with COVID-19.</p>
<p>There is one thing no Australian should do – underestimate the resilience of the economy. Australia hasn't posted a recession in 28 years, despite all manner of shocks, including the global financial crisis. And while it will be more difficult to avoid a downturn this time, our economy should also bounce back quickly.</p>
<p><strong>CRAIG JAMES </strong><em>is the Chief Economist of CommSec</em></p>
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Job market in good shape ahead of virus crisis: CommSec's Craig James

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<p class="legacy">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>We are continually being told that more of us are employed than ever before.</p>
<p>Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe points out (correctly) that a <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/commrep/cd2f4ebe-8e89-48fc-9d73-511ad37ff580/toc_pdf/Standing%20Committee%20on%20Economics_2020_02_07_7481.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22committees/commrep/cd2f4ebe-8e89-48fc-9d73-511ad37ff580/0000%22">higher proportion</a> of us are in jobs than at any other time. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says an extra <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-national-press-club">1.5 million</a> Australians have found jobs since the Coalition took office, 260,000 of them in the past year.</p>
<p>Yet in many ways the job market is weak, as unusually low wage growth and an uncommon reluctance to change jobs make clear.</p>
<p>A deeper look into the statistics provides clues as to why.</p>
<p>First, many of the extra jobs created have been part-time.</p>
<p><strong>Part-time work, service industries</strong></p>
<p>Over the life of the Coalition government between 2013 and 2019, total employment grew at an annual rate of 2% but the total hours worked increased at an annual rate of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">only 1.1%</a> – that’s about half the rate of 1.9% that hours grew during the Hawke/Keating Labor era.</p>
<p>It means the underemployment rate hasn’t come down as much as the unemployment rate.</p>
<p>In fact, it has risen. The proportion of workers who are underemployed – who would like to work more hours than they do – has climbed from 7.9% to 9.1% during the life of the Coalition government.</p>
<p>Over the same period the unemployment rate has fallen only a few points, from 5.7 to 5.3%.</p>
<p>The few industries in which hours worked have increased faster than the average have been <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/880/Employment_changing_patterns_table_1.pdf?1582611535">mainly service industries</a>, more likely than others to employ women.</p>
<p>The change in the distribution of industries has also been reflected in the a change in the distribution of occupations.</p>
<p>For both men and women, the proportion in blue collar, clerical and sales jobs has <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/881/Employment_changing_patterns_Table_2.pdf?1582611657">fallen over time</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>Type of occupation by share of employment, men</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316995/original/file-20200225-24690-1uovak0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316995/original/file-20200225-24690-1uovak0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p>(Shares of community &amp; personal service and sales are each under 10%) <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/fair-share-hardback">Source: Bell &amp; Keating, Fair Share, ABS 6291.0.55.003</a></p>
<hr>
<p>The share of jobs that do not require a university degree has consequently fallen. The share that require higher skills has risen.</p>
<p>By and large, these changes in the distribution of jobs by industry and occupation and the growth of part-time opportunities has tended to favour women.</p>
<hr>
<p>Type of occupation by share of employment, women</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316999/original/file-20200225-24701-1hwlv97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316999/original/file-20200225-24701-1hwlv97.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p>Blue collar includes technicians and trades, machinery operators and drivers and labourers. <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/fair-share-hardback">Source: Bell &amp; Keating, Fair Share, ABS 6291.0.55.003</a></p>
<hr>
<p>Many men now find themselves in jobs that don’t have good growth prospects.</p>
<p>It means that their job security is less than in the past and their bargaining power for higher wages is less than in the past.</p>
<p>In sum, the skewed distribution in where the jobs are being created suggests that many Australians, particularly men, are missing out. Highly educated men (and women) can still get good jobs, but in most industries and occupations, prospects are stagnating.</p>
<p><strong>Risk averse workers</strong></p>
<p>A likely consequence is that workers, and perhaps especially male workers, have become less keen to take risks, including the risk of asking to be paid more.</p>
<p>Another risk is attempting to change jobs. Job-switching typically leads to higher pay – not only for those who switch, but also, to a lesser extent, for those who stay as higher pay flows through.</p>
<p>Recent treasury research found that job-switching rates fell by about <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/2019-04_wage_growth_in_australia_lessons_from_longitudinal_microdata.pdf">2 percentage points</a> between 2003 and 2015 (the end-date of its data). It is very likely to have fallen since.</p>
<p>The treasury research found that each 1 percentage point decline in job-switching was associated with a <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/s2019-396067">½ percentage point decline</a> in average annual wage growth – meaning the decline of 2 percentage points or more would account for a substantial part of the recent decline.</p>
<hr>
<p>Wage growth, annual</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317041/original/file-20200225-24664-54xsfn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317041/original/file-20200225-24664-54xsfn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p>Annual change in total hourly rates of pay excluding bonuses. <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0">Source: ABS 6345.0</a></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Broad implications</strong></p>
<p>The less fluid and less dynamic labour market might also be impacting the transmission of technological change and productivity growth.</p>
<p>Adoption of new technologies accelerates when workers switch to the most productive firms.</p>
<p>The treasury finds that the difference in employment growth between high and low productivity firms has fallen by <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/2019-04_wage_growth_in_australia_lessons_from_longitudinal_microdata.pdf">1½ percentage points</a> since 2012, the point at which productivity growth began to slow.</p>
<p>And declining confidence about job prospects might also be affecting political attitudes.</p>
<p>Today, the Labor Party no longer has the exclusive loyalty of workers. Instead, ever since John Howard targeted and gained the support of “tradies”, the Coalition has increasingly sought support from workers who feel less secure, both about their own jobs and also about the future more broadly.</p>
<p>Often these people respond to what they see as a loss of security and status by attaching themselves to strong leaders. They can become loyal to inherited values, and can be hostile to outsiders or change, viewing them as challenges to inherited values. They can mistrust experts, especially when the advice of those experts clashes with their inherited beliefs and what they see as their traditional way of life.</p>
<p>It is possible that Morrison won the last election because (like Trump) he appealed to people who felt they have lost security and status, and opposed change. He offered reassurance, partly because of his style, but also because of his resistance to change.</p>
<p>If Labor is to become competitive, it needs to develop policies that will restore confidence among workers that they have a good future. It isn’t an impossible task.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132249/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-keating-528224">Michael Keating</a>, Visiting Fellow, College of Business &amp; Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-jobs-market-is-nowhere-near-as-good-as-youve-heard-and-its-changing-us-132249">original article</a>.</p>
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The Australian jobs market is nowhere near as good as you've heard: Michael Keating

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s job market remained resilient at the turn of the year, despite the bushfire crisis impacting large swathes of the country. In January, ANZ’s job ads measure rose by almost 4 per cent – the biggest gain since June 2019. The pick-up follows the creation of 67,000 new jobs in November and December, pushing the jobless rate back down to 5.1 per cent – near 8-year lows.</p>
<p>Aussie unleaded petrol prices fell to 5-month lows last week. Pump prices are averaging a smidgen over $1.40 a litre across the nation. In the more competitive retail fuel markets on the east coast, prices at the bowser are currently averaging around $1.30 a litre – at the lowest levels since September 2019.</p>
<p>So why are petrol prices so low? The retail petrol price discounting cycle is keeping a lid on prices in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. But motorists should fill up now. Pump prices are close to the bottom of the cycle - now 20 days old – and will begin lifting by the weekend.</p>
<p>Concerns about China’s oil demand due to the coronavirus impact on economic activity are another factor pushing down Aussie petrol prices. In fact, the US Nymex crude oil price plummeted by 16 per cent in January – its worst start to a year since 1991. And the Singapore benchmark gasoline price - the largest component of fuel prices paid by motorists - fell to 8-month lows of US$66.25 a barrel last week. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.90 or 2.9 per cent to $98.53 a barrel or 61.97 cents a litre – also an 8-month low.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br><em>Petrol prices</em></p>
<p>According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average price of unleaded petrol fell by 8.3 cents to 140.3 cents a litre last week. The metropolitan price fell by 12.0 cents to 137.0 cents a litre and the regional price fell by 1.1 cents to 146.8 cents a litre.</p>
<p>Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 14.0 cents to 133.1 c/l), Melbourne (down by 12.9 cents to 138.5 c/l), Brisbane (down by 12.6 cents to 135.1 c/l), Adelaide (down by 22.2 cents to 138.2 c/l), Perth (down by 1.9 cents to 140.0 c/l), Darwin (down by 1.1 cents to 138.7 c/l), Canberra (down by 0.2 cents to 146.4 c/l) and Hobart (down by 0.2 cents to 155.5 c/l).</p>
<p>The smoothed gross retail margin (2-month rolling average) for unleaded petrol rose from 15.06 cents a litre to a 7½-month high of 15.29 cents a litre (24-month average: 13.2 cents a litre).</p>
<p>The national average diesel petrol price fell by 0.4 cents to 149.8 cents a litre over the past week. The metropolitan price fell by 0.4 cents to 148.4 cents a litre and the regional price was down by 0.4 cents to 151.0 cents a litre.</p>
<p>Today, the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 127.5 cents a litre, down 2.9 cents over the week. The terminal gate diesel price stands at 131.5 cents a litre, down by 3.5 cents over the past week.</p>
<p>MotorMouth records the following average retail prices for unleaded fuel in capital cities today: Sydney 129.5c; Melbourne 132.0c; Brisbane 130.4c; Adelaide 146.7c; Perth 129.6c; Canberra 146.3c; Darwin 138.4c; Hobart 155.3c.</p>
<p>The key Singapore gasoline price fell by US$3.20 or 4.6 per cent last week to 8-month lows of US$66.25 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms, the Singapore gasoline price fell by $2.90 or 2.9 per cent to $98.53 a barrel or 61.97 cents a litre – also an 8-month low.</p>
<p><strong>Building Approvals - December</strong></p>
<p>Council approvals to build new homes fell by 0.2 per cent in December to 14,752 units. But approvals are up by 2.7 per cent from a year ago – the strongest annual growth rate in 19 months.</p>
<p>House approvals fell by 0.1 per cent and apartment approvals were down by 0.3 per cent.</p>
<p>In trend terms, overall approvals rose by 2.1 per cent in December – the biggest increase in over 2 years.</p>
<p>Over the past year 172,510 new homes were approved, below the decade average of 196,675 units.</p>
<p>Dwelling approvals across states/territories: NSW (down 30.5 per cent); Victoria (up 34.0 per cent); Queensland (down 5.7 per cent); South Australia (down 20.1 per cent); Western Australia (up 5.4 per cent); Tasmania (down 8.9 per cent). In trend terms: Northern Territory (up 4.7 per cent); ACT (up 1.0 per cent).</p>
<p>The value of all commercial and residential building approvals rose by 13.4 per cent in December. Residential approvals rose by 2.6 per cent with new building up by 3.2 per cent, but alterations &amp; additions were down by 1.8 per cent. And commercial building rose by 30.9 per cent.</p>
<p>Over the year to December, building approvals totalled $115.4 billion, 15.5 per cent above the decade average.</p>
<p><strong>Job advertisements - January</strong></p>
<p>ANZ job advertisements rose by 3.8 per cent in January - the biggest lift in 7 months. But ads were still down by 11.8 per cent over the year to 149,544 in seasonally adjusted terms.</p>
<p><strong>Inflation gauge - January</strong></p>
<p>The Melbourne Institute monthly headline inflation gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in January. The annual growth rate lifted from 1.4 per cent in December to 1.8 per cent in January. The smoothed 12-month annual average of the gauge is at 1.67 per cent in October – just above the slowest growth rate in 2½ years.</p>
<p>The trimmed mean gauge lifted by 0.4 per cent in January to be up 1.6 per cent from a year ago – below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent underlying inflation target.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong></p>
<p>Aussie residential building activity is showing more evidence of stabilising. In fact, building approvals in trend terms rose by 2.1 per cent in December – the biggest monthly gain since September 2017. Apartment projects are driving volatile outcomes in NSW and Victoria. But the strong rebound in Sydney and Melbourne home prices, record-low borrowing costs and still-solid population growth could underpin demand and the eventual bottoming-out in the construction sector by late 2020.</p>
<p>Reserve Bank policymakers will be heartened that multiple interest rate cuts supported jobs growth in late 2019. While the impact of bushfires on the labour market is still unknown, ANZ’s leading indicator of jobs growth made a promising start to 2020.</p>
<p>Commonwealth Bank Group economists continue to expect another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank in the coming months to support the economy.</p>
<p><strong>RYAN FELSMAN</strong><em> is a Senior Economist CommSec</em></p>
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Australia's job market remains resilient despite bushfires: Ryan Felsman

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australian Q3 GDP was this week’s key data. It again highlighted the weak state of Australia’s economy and the need for additional policy support.</p>
<p>Ahead of GDP’s release, partial data for public demand pointed to a potential upside surprise to the market’s 0.5% expectation. Instead,  GDP actually surprised to the downside, rising just 0.4%, 1.7%yr. Why? Principally because household consumption grew by only 0.1%, 1.2%yr in Q3 – the weakest result since the GFC. Household consumption therefore declined in per capita terms, both in the quarter and over the year. It is important to note that this is despite the mid-year rate cuts, the Government’s tax cuts, and a 1.1% rise in nominal labour income in Q3 alone. Even with a partial offset from weak non-labour income associated with the drought and spill-overs from the dwelling construction downturn, household disposable income rose 2.5% in the quarter. Witnessed to by the savings rate jumping from 2.7% to 4.8%, households cautiously saved their rate and tax windfalls as well as a significant proportion of recent income gains. The flat October retail sales result highlights this weakness in spending continued into Q4 in the lead-up to November’s ‘Black Friday’ sales.   </p>
<p>The very weak gain for consumption in Q3 was unable to offset declines in business and residential investment. As a result, private demand registered a fifth consecutive quarter of flat or declining activity. Notably the decline in residential construction was not only due to falling new dwelling construction (-11%yr), but also weaker renovation activity (-7.1%yr). The latest dwelling approvals data suggests the trend decline in both components of residential construction will continue into 2020.</p>
<p>The above outcomes are clearly inconsistent with the RBA’s “gentle turning point’ thesis and their hope that rising property prices “should” support stronger consumption and residential construction in time – as expressed in this week’s December RBA meeting statement. Indeed, as per retail sales and GDP, the states that have seen the strongest house price gains, NSW and Vic, have seen some of the weakest consumption outcomes, particularly on a per capita basis. The RBA chose to emphasise “long and variable lags” of the effect of recent policy stimulus, but should economic softness persist as we anticipate, they will need to take further action.</p>
<p>Therefore, come 2020, we expect the RBA will again ease monetary policy, through cash rate cuts in February and June to 0.25%, and by subsequently commencing quantitative easing in the second half. We see this monetary easing as complimentary to the bringing forward of the 2022/23 tax cuts to 2020/21 and 2021/22. This is a policy change we have called for in recent months but which is yet to gain the support of the Government.</p>
<p>Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered an announcement on bank capital requirements. The final outcome was broadly in line with expectations. New Zealand's banks will be required to hold substantially more capital over the coming years but importantly have been given seven years to implement changes rather than the originally tabled five and are now allowed up to 2.5% of Tier 1 capital to be in the form of preference shares. Our New Zealand Economics team have provided a bulletin covering the economic impact of the new requirements.</p>
<p>Offshore, markets have been in flux this week. The initial shock came as President Trump showed no urgency towards a phase 1 deal with China, commenting that he would be quite happy to hold off on a deal until after the November 2020 election. However, markets were soon appeased by media coverage of unnamed sources downplaying Trump’s remarks, and instead citing that trade talks were progressing despite “harsh headline rhetoric”.</p>
<p>While the market has calmed down, we remain somewhat more circumspect that all will be well going forward. President Trump’s indifference to a deal together with his signing of legislation supporting protests in Hong Kong last week, the US House of Representatives passing a bill against China’s treatment of the Uyghurs this week, and President Trump’s additional threat to impose tariffs on some French goods in retaliation against the nation’s digital services tax, highlights that geopolitical tensions will remain in 2020. This is in stark contrast to the market’s current view that a phase 1 deal with China will be completed before December 15’s planned tariffs take effect, and that this will (hopefully) herald a wind-down of all trade-related tensions. </p>
<p>Finally to this week’s international data. China’s official PMI’s were a clear positive. Notably in November, the headline factory survey returned to growth for the first time in seven months, and new orders rose to an expansionary reading. Momentum in the services sector also improved from an already-expansionary October reading. Overall, these results highlight China is making progress digesting the negative shock imposed on them, and that GDP growth will soon stabilise.</p>
<p>US data has, in contrast, been on the soft side this week. The market was most concerned by the unexpected deterioration in the manufacturing ISM. Of particular note in the detail is that new orders signalled a sharper contraction in activity ahead, and that the employment index was consistent with further job shedding. ADP payrolls subsequently came in well below expectations (67k versus a 135k expectation), though this result was offset by an improvement in the forward indicators of the non-manufacturing ISM, including a lift in its employment index.</p>
<p>We believe that US employment growth will slow further in 2020, impacting consumption and resulting in below-trend GDP growth. Amid persistent global uncertainty, these are circumstances that will require the FOMC to ease. We continue to anticipate three cuts, in March, June and September.</p>
<p><em><strong>ELLIOT CLARKE</strong> is a senior economist at Westpac </em></p>
<p><em><em><strong>SIMON MURRAY </strong>is an economist at Westpac</em></em></p>
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