Job Market

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<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>Job ads were down by -16.4 per cent or -18,400 in April, on a trend basis.</span><br><br><span>It's comfortably the largest fall since the series began in January 2006.</span></p>
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<p><span>In New South Wales, vacancies have gone from 70k at the cyclical peak to 22k.</span></p>
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<div>Dreadful numbers, which suggest that the unemployment rate will roughly go from 5 to 10 per cent. </div>
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<div>Australia has done a wonderful job of flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases, to the extent that there are only 9 (nine) cases remaining in ICU. </div>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RCwkp7NkKL4/XsSFV9guKUI/AAAAAAAA1zo/UwIbpjtg2T4NdZQa8L3pvwxmsgddJaadQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/CV1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1409"></p>
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<div>Time to reopen the economy, and then the borders...with quarantine.</div>
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<div>Sensibly managed, Australia will be in a stronger position than ever to welcome the world's best and brightest. </div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Largest fall in job ads ever recorded: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
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<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
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<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
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<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
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<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
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<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
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<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
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<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
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<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
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<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
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<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
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<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
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<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
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<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
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<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Employment rose by 26,700 jobs in February – after increasing by 12,900 in January (previously estimated at +13,500). Full-time jobs rose by 6,700 with part-time jobs up by 20,000. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 8,000 and a jobless rate near 5.3 per cent.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.29 per cent (to two decimal places) in January to 5.10 per cent in February in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms, the jobless rate was steady at 5.1 per cent in February.</p>
<p>Hours worked fell by 3.0 per cent in February, but were up by 0.5 per cent over the year. In trend terms, hours worked were up by 0.8 per cent on the year.</p>
<p>Participation rate: The participation rate eased from 66.1 per cent to 66.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms the participation rate was steady at 66.0 per cent.</p>
<p>Unemployment across states in February: NSW 4.6 per cent (January 4.5 per cent); Victoria 5.3 per cent (5.4 per cent); Queensland 5.6 per cent (6.2 per cent); South Australia 5.8 per cent (5.7 per cent); Western Australia 5.2 per cent (5.7 per cent); Tasmania 5.0 per cent (5.7 per cent). In trend terms, Northern Territory 5.5 per cent (5.5 per cent); ACT 2.9 per cent (3.0 per cent).</p>
<p><strong>What does it all mean?</strong></p>
<p>To some extent today's data is ancient history. The COVID-19 coronavirus crisis really started to impact the broader economy in March. The impact of the virus in February was largely on tourism-dependent businesses and regions, and on the education sector. However the February jobs data would have also incorporated the effects of the bushfires that impacted so many of the country's regions..</p>
<p>That said, there was a positive lead for today's jobs figures from the January Department of Employment skilled vacancies series. And while a lot has happened over March, the jobs data for February – just like the retail trade figures – were indeed encouraging. And especially of encouragement was data showing the female jobless rate equalling the lowest rate in 11 years. And while monthly job figures at a state level are volatile, Tasmania's jobless rate is the lowest for over 8 years with Western Australia's jobless rate the lowest rate in over 5 years. The ACT's trend jobless rate is the lowest in 11 years.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Statistics "confirmed that the disruption from the bushfires did not have a notable impact on key headline statistics".</p>
<p>The outlook for the job market is challenging. While supermarkets, grocery wholesalers and transport groups are looking to hire staff, airlines, hospitality, sporting and cultural sectors will struggle to retain workers. So the next Federal Government support package will be super-important. It will be important for the Government to do all that it takes to keep Aussies in jobs.</p>
<p>It serves no value – and indeed it may be misleading – to try and forecast in the current environment. Much will depend on how quickly active coronavirus cases peak in Australia, how aggressive State and Federal governments are in supporting businesses and how quickly vaccines and treatments are developed to deal with COVID-19.</p>
<p>There is one thing no Australian should do – underestimate the resilience of the economy. Australia hasn't posted a recession in 28 years, despite all manner of shocks, including the global financial crisis. And while it will be more difficult to avoid a downturn this time, our economy should also bounce back quickly.</p>
<p><strong>CRAIG JAMES </strong><em>is the Chief Economist of CommSec</em></p>
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Job market in good shape ahead of virus crisis: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Ordinarily this data would be considered ‘current’. But given that many parts of the economy have re-opened in the past 17 days – and more parts are expected to re-open in coming weeks – to some extent the jobs data is ancient history. Jobs slumped over March, April and early May as businesses went into hibernation. But job gains are expected from this month on as businesses re-open and workers re-join their employers. Certainly what we do know is that the number of payroll jobs rose by 1 per cent in May, lifting 0.4 per cent in the last week of the month alone.</p>
<p>The stimulus measures from governments and the central bank have all been directed at keeping people connected to their workplace. JobKeeper, and the expanded JobSeeker programs have been vital in that regard. Now the aim is to get people out of their homes and back at workstations. And the work support programs must stay in place to ensure that employers and employees have adequate opportunity to seamlessly move from hibernation to ‘normalcy’ – whatever that now means in the post-COVID-19 environment.</p>
<p>What is happening in the figures is that almost 230,000 weren’t registered as employed in May – they didn’t work more than hour a week in the reference week. But all those JobSeeker and JobKeeper recipients didn’t join the dole queue rather they “left” the workforce – they were neither employed or unemployed in the month. That is evidenced by the slump in the participation rate. Rather the JobKeeper and JobSeeker beneficiaries stayed home, and waited for the economy to re-start so they could return to workplaces.</p>
<p>While the jobless rate rose to 7.1 per cent, clearly it would have been far higher without JobSeeker and JobKeeper. The great hope is that the job losses that have occurred prove to be only temporary and that the re-opening of the economy is indeed successful.</p>
<p>The best way to describe the impact of COVID-19 on the job market is in terms of the number of hours worked. Hours worked fell 0.7 per cent after slumping by a record 9.5 per cent, and that accords with expectations that the economy will contract 10 per cent in the first half of 2020.</p>
<p>Many people have kept their jobs because of the JobKeeper program. So while those on the program are still ‘employed’ and deriving an income of sorts, they are not working, not adding to the output of businesses, and not adding to overall economic activity. The JobKeeper program keeps people connected to their employers, which is positive for the recovery phase. But the payments also ensure that people can spend and therefore serve to keep others in jobs and keep the economy moving.</p>
<p>The jobless rate is expected to peak near 8 per cent. And many forecasters expect the economy to contract 8-10 per cent in the first half of 2020. But provided social distancing is maintained with good hand hygiene and significant CONVID-19 testing, there is no reason that a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery can’t occur as lockdown restrictions ease.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, the closure of our foreign borders will have a range of effects on the economy. Around 150,000 people come to Australia each year on different visas and do the jobs that Australians can’t or won’t do. If the jobs aren’t filled, then this could slow business output and economic output. But the absence, or reduced number, of migrants could serve to keep the jobless rate down if Aussies take up the jobs that they have shunned in the past.</p>
<p>The drop in jobs masks the impact – and future impact – on incomes. People have lost income and there is little hope for a lift in wages in the months ahead. Add in the deferral of dividend payments by listed companies and little or no interest income and there may be scope for ‘top up’ cash handouts by the Government. Today’s data adds to the case of governments maintaining as much support as possible until it is definitely no longer required.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong><br><em>Labour force – May</em></p>
<p>Employment fell by 227,700 in May after falling by a record 607,400 in April (previously reported as 594,300 decline). Full-time jobs fell by 89,100 and part-time jobs fell by 138,600.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate rose from 6.2 per cent to 7.1 per cent in May. It was the highest jobless rate in almost 19 years (since October 2001).</p>
<p>Hours worked fell by 0.7 per cent in May after falling by a record 9.2 per cent in April. Hours worked are down by a record 9 per cent over the year.</p>
<p>The participation rate fell from 63.6 per cent to a 19½-year low of 62.9 per cent in May.</p>
<p>Spare capacity: In May, the underutilisation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to a record 20.2 per cent. The underemployment rate decreased from 13.8 per cent to 13.1 per cent.</p>
<p>Unemployment across states in May: NSW 6.4 per cent (April 6.3 per cent); Victoria 6.9 per cent (6.0 per cent); Queensland 7.9 per cent (7.0 per cent); South Australia 7.9 per cent (7.2 per cent); Western Australia 8.1 per cent (6.1 per cent); Tasmania 6.4 per cent (6.2 per cent); Northern Territory 7.4 per cent (5.6 per cent); ACT 4.1 per cent (4.3 per cent).</p>
<p>Biggest job losses occurred in Victoria (70,800); New South Wales (43,900); Western Australia (30,200); and Queensland (28,100).</p>
<p>Participation rate: The male participation rate of 68.1 per cent was a record low. The female participation rate of 58.4 per cent was the lowest in 13½ years (since December 2006).</p>
<p>Notable highs for the jobless rate: NSW (highest since May 2009); Victoria (highest since October 2014); Queensland (highest since January 2002); Western Australia (highest since June 2001); Northern Territory (highest since September 2014).</p>
<p>“The participation rate for 15-24 year olds (who are often referred to as the "youth" group in the labour market) decreased 2.6 pts to 59.9 per cent in May. Employment for 15-24 year olds decreased by 102,900 people (-6.0 per cent). The unemployment rate for this group increased 2.0 pts to 16.1 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>
<p>People are returning to their workplaces as businesses re-open. Lockdown restrictions continue to ease on evidence that the health strategy is working. So there are reasons for optimism. But we aren’t there yet – there will be challenges ahead.</p>
<p>It is important that we adhere to social distancing, maintain good hands hygiene and remain active in COVID tracking and tracing. Continued success in eliminating active COVID cases means that the economy can bounce back. But sharemarket investors need to remain a cautious stance, given the multiple challenges ahead.</p>
<p>Employment for 15-24 year olds fell by almost 103,000 in May, accounting for around just half of all the job losses. Governments will need to a close eye on this demographic to determine if further targeted stimulus measures are required. One area that could be targeted is the university sector with more places offered to local students given declining international student numbers. The last thing you want is for young Aussies to become entrenched in unemployment.</p>
<p><strong>CRAIG JAMES</strong>,<em>Chief Economist, CommSec</em></p>
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Jobs slide again but there's hope for a rebound: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>Land release in South West Sydney is great news for housing affordability but government must now focus on creating jobs in Western Sydney.</p>
<p><span>The release of the of land for 30,000 new homes in Sydney’s south west is great news but the NSW Government must now put their attention on getting jobs in Western Sydney City.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">The announcement by Minister Roberts of the release of 1,500 hectares for a new community, South </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Creek West in the south west area of Sydney is fantastic news and will help address Sydney’s ongoing </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">housing affordability crisis.</span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><br></span></p>
<p><span>Provision of timely infrastructure is also critical to ensure that South Creek West community is amenable and accessible. The South West Rail Link should be extended to service this area and will allow future resident</span><span>s to access jobs and services.</span></p>
<p><span>Research shows that 500,000 residents travel from the west to the east of the city every day for work, which takes a huge toll on the transport network, the environment and has social consequences for families and workers. The next step for Government is to deliver the Greater Syd</span><span>ney’s Commission vision of a ‘30 minute City’ by providing jobs which can be accessed easily by those living in these new release areas.</span></p>
<p><span>The future Western Sydney Airport provides immense opportunities for employment in this area. The State </span><span>Government must expedite land release for job creating industries and look at how to use surrounding employment lands in a flexible manner to encourage more jobs are created </span><span>faster.</span></p>
<p><span>New housing supply is absolutely critical to bringing down home prices and getting families and first home buyers into the property market. However, the State Government has recently removed the cap on local infrastructure contributions, an upfront payment which is added onto the cost of a home. Councils have already indicated they are looking to increase these contributions </span><span>by up to $80,000 per dwelling.</span></p>
<p><span>This area is well located and has fantastic potential for growth and development however it is critical that excessive taxes and levies which deter development and drive up housing c</span><span>osts are minimised.</span></p>
<p><span>The Department of Planning &amp; Environment has found that 725,000 new dwellings are required in Sydney by 2056. New release areas such as South Creek West are critical to ensure a steady supply of new housing </span><span>is provided for Sydney’s </span><span>growing population, including freestanding homes and apartments and t</span><span>ownhouses.</span></p>
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<p><span>Planning for this new suburb must be streamlined and efficient. Often the planning process can lag for years before there are homes on the ground. Families need homes now and the less red tape and bureaucracy in the planning process, the faster we will see more d</span><span>wellings put out to the market.</span></p>
<p><span>The Urban Taskforce is keen to be involved in discussions with the NSW Government to ensure that </span><span>planning for this new area takes place in a timely manner and with appropriate densities to </span><span>accommodate Sydney’s growing population and creating more Western Sydney jobs faster.</span></p>
<p><span><em><span>CHRIS JOHNSON</span> is CEO of Urban Taskforce.</em></span></p>
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Government must focus on creating jobs for Western Sydney

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Gig platforms don’t have a large share of the labour market yet.</p>
<p>A common narrative nowadays is that standard, secure full-time work is a thing of the past thanks to increasing casual jobs, labour hire, temping and non-standard work contracts that side-step collective bargaining. The ACTU says insecure work has grown to “<a href="https://www.actu.org.au/media/349417/lives_on_hold.pdf" target="_blank">crisis levels</a>”. A <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Education_and_Employment/AvoidanceofFairWork" target="_blank">Senate inquiry rehashed</a> the same themes last year. Much of the academic literature is also <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10301763.2018.1427424?journalCode=rlab20" target="_blank">toeing this line</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there is very little evidence that jobs are any less secure than they were decades ago. This is not to deny that some people are leading very precarious lives. <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/company-fined-record-660000-for-paying-refugee-worker-as-little-as-350-an-hour-20170802-gxnrsf" target="_blank">Recent stories</a> of wage theft and exploitation, particularly among migrant workers, are truly disgraceful.</p>
<p>But, on the whole, Australian workers are not on some inexorable march toward an uncertain and perilous future of work.</p>
<p>It is true that the labour market has changed. The types of jobs we do and the industries we do them in are very different today than in the ’70s. There’s a <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-charts-on-how-part-time-work-is-growing-more-slowly-but-more-men-are-doing-it-79352" target="_blank">lot more part-time work</a>. There’s a lot <a href="https://theconversation.com/women-are-less-likely-to-be-replaced-by-robots-and-might-even-benefit-from-automation-96728" target="_blank">more women</a> in the workforce. The balance of industrial power has shifted in favour of employers.</p>
<p>These changes partly reflect the restructuring of the economy away from some industries (such as manufacturing) and toward those that offer more part-time and casual work (retail, food, accommodation services and the like). But it is also the result of decades of concerted industrial relations reform, along with sweeping changes in individual work preferences.</p>
<p>There is no widely accepted definition of precarious employment. After all, every job is precarious to some extent. Nevertheless there are some common proxies for this slippery concept.</p>
<p>The rise of casual employment was <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10301763.1998.10669175" target="_blank">an early favourite</a> and is still very relevant. More <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8462.12085" target="_blank">recent research</a> has broadened the scope to include job tenure and involuntary job-loss rates. <a href="https://theconversation.com/workers-are-actually-feeling-less-insecure-in-their-jobs-81836" target="_blank">Others</a> emphasise workers’ own perceptions of job security. There has also been interest in the rate of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-4932.12337" target="_blank">self-employment</a>, the number of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://ideas.repec.org/a/fli/journl/35019" target="_blank">multiple job holders</a> and the share of workers handled by <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/research/supporting/labour-hire" target="_blank">labour hire firms</a>.</p>
<p>Four of these measures cut to the heart of precarity:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>casual employment is a measure of precarious contracts</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>job churn reveals the extent to which employers are hiring and firing with impunity</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>self-employment captures all of the gig economy workers who are supposedly flooding the labour market</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>multiple job holders could be so precariously attached to the labour market that they’re unable to make ends meet with a single job.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>On their own, each of these measures is a good but imperfect proxy for precarity. Taken together, however, they largely speak with one compelling voice.</p>
<p><strong>Casualisation</strong></p>
<p>The logic of the casual job is to give employers the flexibility to dial their staffing levels up and down as demand fluctuates. Casual workers don’t get annual and sick leave, and generally aren’t protected against dismissal.</p>
<p>Basically, a casual contract lets an employer hire and fire with impunity.</p>
<p>That sounds pretty precarious. You would expect that a labour market of increasing precarity would exhibit a strong trend toward casualisation. In fact, what we have had is strong growth in casual employment during the last two decades of the 20th century and then nothing.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/UEcUf/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>Now there is no doubt that casual work is usually lower-quality work. On the whole, casual workers <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0018726716686666" target="_blank">get paid less, chase more hours</a> and are a little <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1718/CasualEmployeesAustralia" target="_blank">less satisfied</a> than their permanently employed peers.</p>
<p>But that is not evidence that casual employment is becoming ubiquitous.</p>
<p><strong>Churn</strong></p>
<p>If employers really were hiring and firing with abandon we should see more people staying in jobs for briefer periods. But we’re not.</p>
<p>In fact, as we can see in the chart below, there has not been a huge spike in workers forced out of their jobs involuntarily. And the proportion that have been in their jobs for 12 months is also staying on trend.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QysPX/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Bni1x/1/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>Self-employment</strong></p>
<p>This category should be the smoking gun of a more precarious workforce. It captures anyone who works for themselves, whether in a formally constituted company or not. I have deliberately excluded in this measure those who employ others, so we’re really looking at the cohort of people who work for themselves and by themselves on commercial contract terms.</p>
<p>Self-employment captures all non-employees, such as Uber drivers and Foodora riders, as well as those who were “pushed out” of employment and onto contract.</p>
<p>And yet, as you can see in the following chart, these people are getting harder to find:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yt2iA/2/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>The downward trend may seem surprising given one supposed key driver of precarity is the digitalised “gig economy”. <a href="https://http-download.intuit.com/http.intuit/CMO/intuit/futureofsmallbusiness/intuit_2020_report.pdf" target="_blank">One projection</a> was that 40% of the US workforce would be freelancers, contractors or temporary workers by 2020.</p>
<p>But the reality is that, for all their visibility and controversy, gig economy platforms are not yet commanding a significant share of the labour market.</p>
<p><strong>Multiple job holders</strong></p>
<p>That a higher share of workers are holding down multiple jobs fits with the notion that the economy is becoming “gigified”, with workers increasingly forced to move from job to job to make ends meet.</p>
<p>Yet the data provide little evidence that this is a material shift in the structure of the labour market.</p>
<p>In 1997, the <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6216.0Aug%201997?OpenDocument" target="_blank">ABS found</a> the proportion of employed persons holding multiple jobs increased from 3.7% in August 1987 to 5.2% a decade later. While the ABS has not published a long-term series since this report, it provided me a custom dataset that shows the current rate is not much higher, at about 5.5%.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6150.0.55.001July%202017?OpenDocument" target="_blank">ABS introduced</a> a similar but not identical measure last year – the proportion of jobs in the economy that are “secondary jobs”. This remained stable between 2010-11 and 2015-16, at around 5.6%.</p>
<p><strong>The takeaway</strong></p>
<p>When I started researching the rise of the gig economy and the future of work I was sure that Australia’s labour market was taking a precarious turn. After all, Uber drivers, Deliveroo riders and Airtaskers seem to be everywhere.</p>
<p>But the weight of evidence clearly suggests that, while the last two decades of the 20th century produced a significant rise in non-standard work, the first two decades of the 21st have seen remarkably little change.</p>
<p>There is much to dislike about the quality and quantity of jobs the economy is delivering. But to make this a conversation about precarity is to chase a red herring.</p>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99739/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">This fruitless pursuit is simply distracting researchers and policymakers from far more pressing questions – like how to create a globally competitive workforce fit for the 21st century.</p>
<p><em><strong>Robert Sobyra</strong> is a PhD Candidate at The University of Queensland</em></p>
<p><em>This article was originally published on</em> The Conversation.</p>
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Australian jobs aren't becoming less secure: Robert Sobyra

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Last month we said that there was seemingly something for everyone in the latest labour force data. And the same conclusion can be made again.</p>
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<p>There was good job growth in the month, albeit focused on part-time jobs.</p>
<p>The jobless rate didn’t budge. But the proportion of working age Aussies in the job market (participation rate) hit record highs.</p>
<p>Admittedly the data covered the election period and that may account for the skew to part-time workers.</p>
<p>Clearly there are temporary jobs created each three years for election-related roles.</p>
<p>A big question for the Reserve Bank is whether it believes that lower interest rates can truly drive the national jobless rate to 4.5 per cent or whether structural factors will impede progress.</p>
<p>NSW, Victoria, the ACT and the Northern Territory have jobless rates of 4.6 per cent or lower but next best is South Australia at 5.7 per cent.</p>
<p>So the ball is back in the Reserve Bank’s court. We know that interest rates are being driven by the job market.</p>
<p>So does the Reserve Bank follow the June rate cut with another move in July or does it wait a little longer – perhaps August after the late July inflation data?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/commsec%201%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/13/commsec%201%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<div class="column">We continue to favour August for the next rate cut. There certainly is no rush.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The economy lost momentum late in 2018/early in 2009 due to the US-China trade stoush. Other countries have similarly experienced softer growth.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Australia has also experienced slower growth in 2019 as both businesses and consumers awaited the election result.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">With a clear election result obtained, the economy should gain pace from here.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Reserve Bank doesn’t seem to see any barriers to further rate stimulus.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">‘Full employment’ is now defined as a jobless rate near 4.5 per cent. And inflation is set to stay at lower levels for longer.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">That assumption was backed by today’s data showing plunging airfares in June.<br><p>Certainly stimulus is coming from lower interest rates, the minimum wage decision, the upcoming tax cut and some loosening of home lending policy from the regulators.</p>
<p>A lower Aussie dollar is also supporting activity in the economy. Sydney home prices have lifted 0.3 per cent from recent lows with Melbourne prices up 0.2 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong></p>
Employment rose for the 12th straight month, up by 42,300 in May after a revised 43,100 increase in jobs in April (previously reported as a 28,400 increase in jobs).</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Full-time jobs rose by 2,400, but part-time jobs rose by 39,800. Economists had tipped an increase in total jobs of around 15,000.</div>
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<div class="column">Annual job growth rose from 2.5 per cent to a 14-month high of 2.9 per cent (decade average 1.7 per cent).<br><p>Hours worked fell by 0.3 per cent in the month to be up 2.1 per cent over the year. In trend terms, hours worked rose 0.2 per cent to be up 2.5 per cent on the year.</p>
The unemployment rate was steady at 5.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. In trend terms the jobless rate was steady at 5.1 per cent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The participation rate rose from 65.9 per cent to a record high of 66.0 per cent. In trend terms the participation rate rose from 65.8 per cent to a record high of 65.9 per cent.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">Unemployment across states in May: NSW 4.6 per cent (April 4.6 per cent); Victoria 4.6 per cent (4.8 per cent); Queensland 6.2 per cent (5.9 per cent); South Australia 5.7 per cent (6.1 per cent); Western Australia 6.3 per cent (6.1 per cent); Tasmania 6.4 per cent (6.8 per cent). In trend terms, Northern Territory 4.5 per cent (4.5 per cent); ACT 3.9 per cent (3.8 per cent).</div>
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<br>State/Territory jobs: In seasonlly adjusted terms, the largest increase in employment was in New South Wales (up 38,500 persons), followed by Victoria (up 28,600 persons) and Queensland (up 7,800 persons).</div>
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<div class="column">The only decrease were in Western Australia (down 4,000 persons) and Tasmania (down 400 persons)</div>
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<div class="column">The working age population rose by 26,000 in May to 20.56 million.</div>
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<div class="column">Over the year the working age population rose by 356,100 – a 91⁄2-year high – or 1.76 per cent, but this is still down from the record 2.36 per cent annual growth in December 2008.</div>
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<div class="column">The monthly trend underemployment rate increased 0.1pt to 8.5 per cent. The monthly trend underutilisation rate increased 0.1pt to 13.6 per cent.<br><p>The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased 0.1pt to 8.6 per cent. The monthly underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.7 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>Domestic airfares</strong></p>
Business class airfares fell by 0.2 per cent in June after falling by 1 per cent in May. Business class airfares are down 9.6 per cent on a year ago – falling at the fastest annual rate in six years.</div>
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<div class="column">And the actual fares stand at the lowest level in four years. In smoothed terms, business class airfares fell by 1.3 per cent in June to be down 9.3 per cent on the year.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/commsec%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</div>
<div class="column"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/13/commsec%202.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/commsec%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </div>
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<div class="column">Discount airfares are volatile month-to-month. In June, fares rose by 15.2 per cent after falling by 25.9 per cent in May.</div>
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<div class="column">Discount airfares are down 5.9 per cent over the year to June. In smoothed terms, discount airfares fell by 1.9 per cent in June to be down 3.1 per cent on the year – the biggest fall in the annual growth rate in three years. Fares are the lowest in two years.</div>
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<div class="column">Restricted economy airfares rose by 0.7 per cent in June after falling by 0.5 per cent in May. In smoothed terms, restricted economy fares rose just 0.2 per cent in June to be up by 5.3 per cent on the year.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/comm%20sec%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/commsec%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</div>
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<div class="column"><strong>Why is the data important?</strong></div>
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<div class="column">The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.).</div>
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<div class="column">The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.</div>
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<div class="column">If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees.</div>
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<div class="column">If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.</div>
<div class="column"> </div>
<div class="column">The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases data on domestic and international aviation each month.</div>
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<div class="column">The data is useful in tracking consumer spending and airline performance as well as broader economic activity.</div>
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<div class="column"><strong>What are the implications?</strong></div>
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<div class="column">CommSec is pencilling in another rate cut for August.</div>
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<div class="column">But we are looking for significant debate about whether there is value in cutting rates much further.</div>
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<div class="column">The southeastern corner of Australia is arguably at or near full-employment. But there is a huge gap to the other states.</div>
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<div class="column">The Reserve Bank Governor has a super-important speech in a week’s time: “The Labour Market and Spare Capacity”. Aussies will be hanging on every word.</div>
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/13/commsec%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</div>
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<p><span><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em> </span></p>
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