Job Growth

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Western Sydney is set for a further construction boom, with two more projects getting the green light today through the NSW Government’s Planning System Acceleration Program. 
Planning approval has been given to a new recycling facility in Penrith and a major upgrade to a brick production facility in Horsley Park that, combined, will inject an additional $27.8 million into the economy and support more than 130 local jobs. 
Premier Gladys Berejiklian said Western Sydney has been a big winner in the first tranche of projects that have had their assessments fast-tracked to create jobs and investment in response to COVID-19.  
“Western Sydney is undergoing significant growth, which is why we’ve fast-tracked the assessment of projects in the region over the past three weeks to create opportunities for more than 16,000 local jobs and $1.8 billion in investment,” Ms Berejiklian said.
“The housing and construction industries will be vital to supporting our State’s economy through the pandemic and so we’re doing what we can to keep the industry moving.” 
The latest projects approved in Western Sydney include:
<ul>
<li>A $26 million upgrade to the 1960’s Austral Bricks facility at Horsley Park. The state-of-the-art facility will be one of the most technologically advanced of its kind in the world and produce enough bricks to build five homes every hour. The facility’s upgrade will support 60 construction jobs and 35 ongoing operational roles.</li>
<li>A new $1.8 million recycling and transfer facility in Penrith, operated by NSW Waste Recycling, that will support a significant increase to waste recycling in Western Sydney. The project will support 25 construction jobs and 12 operational roles once complete.</li>
</ul>
Planning and Public Spaces Minister Rob Stokes said the Planning System Acceleration Program was a vital lever in the State’s economic recovery. 
“We have re-prioritised projects in the State’s planning system so projects are assessed more quickly to keep people in jobs and the NSW economy moving during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Mr Stokes said. 
“We’ll have another tranche of shovel-ready projects ready to announce shortly, which will also have their assessments finalised within four weeks.” 
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Project
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
Investment value
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
Jobs
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Austral Bricks facility upgrade
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$26 million
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
95
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Penrith Resource Recovery Facility
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$1.8 million
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
37
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Bunnings Warehouse at Bringelly Business Park
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$22 million
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
400
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Mt Druitt CBD rezoning
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$1.49 billion
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
15,000
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Rezoning land at Glenlee to create a 60 hectare jobs hub
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$94.2 million
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
188
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
Rezoning the Bankstown CBD to allow more retail, residential and public space
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$166 million
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
332
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="340">
TOTAL
</td>
<td valign="top" width="146">
$1.81 billion
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
16,052
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
To be considered for accelerated assessment, a project must already be progressed in the planning system, deliver a public benefit, demonstrate an ability to create jobs during construction and once complete, and be able to commence construction or lodge a development application within six months. 
Western Sydney projects approved in Tranche 1 of the Planning System Acceleration Program include:
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Construction boom fast-tracked for Western Sydney 

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Today we have run with three charts - Australian dwelling completions, commencements and approvals. The point of this is to illustrate that the current rate cuts are not going to be a job creator for the Australian housing construction industry anytime soon. Naturally it may help other parts of the economy. But not housing construction. To be clear the process of building a property starts at the approval stage. Once approved, building construction commencements normally occur between 6 to 18 months after approvals. And then finally, completions normally occur 18 months to 3 years after approvals.
 
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/d0a5d23c-7109-4a61-9e45-e2a75ad4aee2.png">
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/c2e4fa2e-a581-4020-941d-0f5835b9a3e2.png">
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/9badbd870addb4af72206c2eb/images/69a3110b-3f74-4a58-843a-93ff0600815e.png">
Dwelling completions are only peaking now and so there are a whole bunch of projects that are on the verge of completion. Normally once a project is completed, workers move onto the next project. But as we can see on the commencements chart, there are now less commencements than completions. And so there is less work available, meaning more job losses are coming. To make matters worse, building approvals are still tracking south and are considerably lower than commencements. This means even more housing construction job losses are on the way over the course of 2020 and likely, 2021. This will happen despite the interest rate cuts, tax cuts and easier lending standards. As the building approvals illustrate, there has been no response as yet in the form of higher demand for new housing. The real jobs creation phase, where there are labourers and contractors on the ground, naturally happens at the commencements phase and gets slowly wound down as the building gets closer to completion. So with the fall off in building approvals, housing construction is going to be a detraction to GDP for many months to come. This must be quite the concern for the RBA and for the Federal Government for that matter. As you may have guessed, housing construction is not an insignificant proportion of total employment. The RBA places it at just under 6%. The last time this occurred was back in 2011 to 2013. However the country still had the mining boom as a major job creator at that time. For now, mining investment seems to have bottomed out and will moderately pick up over the next 12 to 24 months, therefore taking some of the slack. But no one is expecting a massive uplift in mining. There is of course infrastructure and that may help to an extent. Apparently for FY20 some $13 billion dollars has been estimated to be spent on Infrastructure which should at least keep climbing through to 2023. By comparison, there was some $42 billion dollars’ worth of dwellings approved over the 12 months to September 2019. Infrastructure better help with the offset. And perhaps with mining added, it will. The RBA is forecasting the unemployment rate to fall to 5% by 2021. But no-one really knows for sure. Let’s hope they are right. Otherwise Australian unemployment is going to keep rising in 2020 and that won’t be good for anyone.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research.
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louischristopher-TWpYcZDLBK

Current rate cuts aren't going to be a job creator for housing construction: SQM's Louis Christopher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Aerotropolis Investor Summit is a positive move to encourage private sector investment into future jobs for Western Sydney.
The focus on the 10,000 hectare economic zone around Western Sydney Airport as the location for a massive growth in Western Sydney jobs is a good example of the outcomes of the City Deal between the three levels of government.
And the establishment of the Western Sydney Development Authority under Chief Coordinator Geoff Roberts will lead to faster decision making in turning plans into reality.
The range of jobs proposed is impressive covering aerospace, defence, manufacturing, healthcare, freight, logistics, agribusiness and education.
Clearly these jobs will be closer to the people of Western Sydney and help redress the jobs exodus from the West to the East in Sydney.
The proposed North South Rail Link will help Western Sydney residents have easy access to the jobs hub.
The potential expansion of the West Metro from Parramatta announced by the Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, at the Summit would link all three cities across metropolitan Sydney.
While the Investor Summit has focussed on the issue of jobs there also needs to be more discussion about the residential components of the third city, the Parkland City.
With the Western Sydney Airport having no curfew clearly housing will be located kilometres away from the airport and the economic zone.
Most commentators on cities prefer a mixed use approach to planning where jobs and residential co-locate to ensure a lively public domain.
Future planning will need to address this issue so that the Parkland City can be as successful as the Harbour City and the River City.
CHRIS JOHNSON is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">contacted here</a>.
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cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

Aerotropolis private investment critical for Western Sydney jobs: Chris Johnson

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Expert observer
Melbourne has a serious problem. Most of its job growth is in the CBD, yet most of its <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features252014-15?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3218.0&amp;issue=2014-15&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">population growth is at the far extremes</a> of the city. It’s the same in other big Australian cities, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-people-cant-get-to-their-jobs-bring-the-jobs-to-the-people-57567">Sydney</a>.
Getting people to work is becoming harder. Many people take more than an hour to commute each way. They could better spend this time with their families, or at work; commuting time is wasted time.
There are three ways we might tackle this:
<ul>
<li>change the planning rules to let more people live near the centre</li>
<li>improve the freeways and railways so that people can commute more quickly</li>
<li>promote job growth away from the CBD.</li>
</ul>
We almost certainly need to do all three.
The Victorian Planning Authority (<a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank">VPA</a>) has <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/urban-renewal/national-employment-clusters/" target="_blank">identified</a> three places in the west of the city – Footscray, Sunshine and Werribee – where jobs should be developed. The Victorian government is on the cusp of making major decisions that could convert these potential employment hubs into actuality. There are three big development proposals before the government that could make a difference. It would be a pity if it missed these opportunities.
<h2>Change of tack is needed</h2>
At the moment the Victorian government’s main strategy is to improve the infrastructure. This is a very expensive solution.
In parallel, the Planning Authority has been working to improve population density by allowing more high-rise housing, particularly around main railway stations and tramlines. However, resistance from local residents has made it hard to increase density in the middle suburbs.
We have seen very little effort so far in Melbourne to create job opportunities within the city but away from the CBD. The planners have identified several potential employment hubs but have not figured out how to create jobs there. This has been a failure of state governments over recent decades.
The problem is most acute in the west of the city. On <a href="http://www.communityprofile.com.au/melbourneswest" target="_blank">current growth trends</a>, by 2030 there will be a <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">shortage of 100,000 jobs</a> in the west; that many extra people will have to commute out every day.
<h2>What’s on the drawing board?</h2>
At Footscray, the key decision is where to locate the <a href="http://www.westernhealth.org.au/AboutUs/News/Pages/A-new-beginning-for-Footscray-Hospital.aspx" target="_blank">new hospital</a>. The best opportunity for future employment would be to <a href="http://www.westernhealth.org.au/AboutUs/News/Documents/Media%20release%20-%20Footscray%20Hospital%20rebuild_7Dec17.pdf" target="_blank">put it next to Victoria University</a> to exploit co-investment and synergies between the two. This would accelerate Footscray’s emergence as a professional services hub.
The payoffs in terms of jobs will be much greater than if the hospital is built well away from the centre of Footscray, which is the other main option. The decision is a test of whether the government really intends to create a polycentric city or not.
At Werribee, the decision is whether to go ahead with the proposed <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/future-melbourne/tech-giants-push-for-piece-of-30bn-super-city-in-east-werribee/news-story/51e77278242514b23567bf6b9e00050c" target="_blank">Australian Education City</a>. This is an ambitious proposal to develop a completely new technology city, mixing technology companies, universities, research laboratories and suitable housing. There would be significant public infrastructure needs to complement the private investment.
The big advantage for Melbourne would be that it gains a major new technology precinct. It is an important proposal for the west because the region has <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">very few jobs in IT, computing and e-commerce</a>.
The third big opportunity lies in the rail connection between Sunshine and the airport at Tullamarine. With Sunshine the hub for regional rail and well connected to the CBD, the proposed <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sunshine-route-to-melbourne-airport-backed-by-rail-group-20171123-gzrqgl" target="_blank">airport link</a> adds a major new facility that Melbourne lacks. It would also transform Sunshine, making it an important focal point for hotels and other airport-oriented businesses.
While the state Labor government has proposed this alternative, the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-airport-rail-to-be-under-way-within-10-years-premier-says-20171122-gzqywe" target="_blank">post-2025 start date</a> makes it less valuable as a city-shaping investment.
To maintain the quality of life of its residents, Melbourne badly needs to create new poles of employment. The west of the city has <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Main%20Features252014-15?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3218.0&amp;issue=2014-15&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">some of the fastest population growth</a> in the nation. What is lacks is a commitment from government to growing jobs in the region and away from the CBD.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93067/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The location of the Footscray hospital, the decision on the Australian Education City, and the timing of the airport rail link are once-in-a-generation choices. Let us hope the government makes decisions that will support dispersed job growth. Failure to do so will make Melbourne a much less attractive place to live in future.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rodney-maddock-107543" target="_blank">Rodney Maddock</a>, Vice Chancellor's Fellow at Victoria University and Adjunct Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065" target="_blank">Monash University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-growing-big-cities-need-new-centres-of-employment-heres-melbournes-chance-93067" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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New centres of employment are needed in our growing big cities

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Arrears on loans underlying Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions declined nationwide during the third quarter, in line with cyclical expectations, according to a recent report by S&amp;P Global Ratings.
Continued employment growth and low interest rates have kept arrears low in most parts of the country, but there are marked differences in the arrears levels of resource and non-resource states as well as metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, according to the report RMBS Performance Watch: Australia.
RMBS Performance Watch: Australia looks at mortgage arrears across the country, based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian geographical standard classifications.
The 20 worst-performing regions in the country are predominantly in the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of Western Australia and nonmetropolitan Queensland, reflecting the greater impact of the downturn in mining investment in these locations.
The areas with lower arrears are mostly in inner and outer Sydney.
This reflects the correlation between property prices and arrears performance for more seasoned loans, which benefit from the improved equity build up and enhanced refinancing prospects this affords.
Amortizing loans with high levels of seasoning in metropolitan areas are underpinning the solid arrears performance of loans underlying Australian RMBS transactions.
The performance of these loans and ones originated more recently could diverge if interest rates start to rise, however, testing the prudence of lending standards.
We expect arrears performance to remain relatively stable while employment conditions remain stable and unemployment is relatively low.
However, the currently high level of household debt has increased borrowers' sensitivity to future interest rate rises.
We believe this risk is more heightened for higher loan-to-value ratio loans.
This is because there is less equity built up in the underlying property and such borrowers' refinancing prospects are likely to be less favorable, particularly in an environment of tightening lending conditions.
Standard &amp; Poor's Performance Index (SPIN) measures the weighted-average arrears more than 30 days past due on residential mortgage loans in publicly and privately rated Australian RMBS transactions.
The value of loans underlying Australian RMBS transactions, including noncapital market issuance, was A$128.951 billion.
Click here to download the <a href="https://www.capitaliq.com/ciqdotnet/login-sso.aspx?contextType=external&amp;username=string&amp;enablePersistentLogin=true&amp;OverrideRetryLimit=0&amp;contextValue=%2Foam&amp;password=secure_string&amp;challenge_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.capitaliq.com%2Fciqdotnet%2Flogin-sso.aspx&amp;request_id=8585133767695543534&amp;authn_try_count=0&amp;locale=en_AU&amp;resource_url=https%253A%252F%252Fwww.capitaliq.com%252FCIQDotNet%252FLogin.aspx" target="_blank">full report.</a>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

S&P says mortgage arrears stable thanks to positive job growth and low interest rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Job growth has been on the surge for a while now. And much of that surge makes sense:
Although China is squeezing Australia's income, it has had much less of an impact on our production growth, and it's the latter which drives jobs.
Even better, within the overall economy, the sectoral make up has seen greater strength in service sectors, which by and large are the key job generating industries in the nation.
Finally, a combination of weak wage growth and good productivity gains has made workers a more competitive option for businesses as they decide between more workers and more machines.
That backdrop is one which is increasingly favourable for the nation’s CBD office markets. The strength in the national job numbers had held true for white collar employment as well, but it had been failing to fully translate into bums on seats in CBD offices. Yet latest data have shown that gap narrowing pretty fast. However, this is very much a Sydney story. The picture remains mixed outside the Premier State, with Melbourne doing fine but Brisbane and Adelaide both labouring, and Perth continuing on its downward spiral. In fact, outside of NSW itself, the most notable good news story is that a pause in public sector cutbacks has seen Canberra’s market steady of late, though even there the overall job numbers are continuing to fall.
The big office markets of Sydney – Sydney CBD and North Sydney – are at sixes and sevens. Or to be more specific, overall jobs in those markets have grown at rates in the range of 6-7% in the last 12 months. In case you are wondering, the last time that the CBD was at that speed was ahead of the Sydney Olympics. Cathy Freeman hadn’t done a victory lap when the pace of growth in CBD office demand was last this strong.
While Sydney’s performance ranks alongside Ben Johnson’s at the Seoul Olympics in 1988 – and for potentially some of the same artificial reasons – Melbourne’s job gains have been strengthening, but remain more believable than those north of the Murray. To be clear, it’s not that white collar job gains in Melbourne’s CBD are accelerating by that much, but they are now clearly ahead of this market’s longer term trend rate of growth (which, by the way, is the strongest of any bar that of Canberra).
Brisbane – in contrast – remains very much more subdued. Or, at least, that’s true of the CBD, with the Near City market much healthier. To be clear, this isn’t an office market that is going backwards. 2014-15 marked a return to growth in Brisbane’s CBD office demand, and 2015-16 seems to have cemented that return to growth. Yet most rebounds show an initial turn of speed, and that simply isn’t the case in Brisbane.
A fast fading resources boom has torn strips out of the performance of the Perth market. That pain will eventually end, but – despite some green shoots – there’s not going to be much joy generated any time soon. It’s on the back foot already, China is still slowing, miners remain under a lot of financial pressure, and big construction projects are essentially in a run off phase, with very few new projects to follow in their wake.
Unlike much of the rest of Australia, Adelaide isn’t benefiting from measured strength in the finance sector.
Moreover, with 2016-17 shaping up as one of weakness in business services, it may be a few years before this particular market finally gets back in gear.
Canberra’s time in purgatory seems set to end. 2016 is, after all, an election year, and such years often trigger promises that usher in a greater need to for public service. These forecasts point to a return to happier times for the capital’s office demand.
James Allnutt is a Deloitte Access Economics director specialising in <a href="https://www.deloitteaccesseconomics.com.au" target="_blank">demographic, forecasts of state economies, and property demand</a>. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Job growth surge spills into CBD markets: Deloitte Access Economics

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Energy and resources minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth, the greatest Australia's had since 2006. Is that right?
With shakes in the global stock market and uncertainty abroad, politicians are understandably keen to reassure voters that Australia’s economic fundamentals are strong.
Employment data produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is one way we can test Australia’s economic waters, and resources and energy minister Josh Frydenberg said recently that the latest employment figures show extremely strong job growth.
Is he right?
Checking the numbers
The ABS' December Labour Force survey release showed that over the course of 2015, total employment was up by 301,300 people (adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations and rounded to closest 100 people). Of those 301,300 jobs, the majority (187,200) were full time.
In the last three months of 2015, growth compared to same time the previous year has fluctuated between 2.6% and 3%. That’s above the average annual growth in employment since 2000 of around 1.9%. In short, employment growth recently has been strong.
Is it the greatest level of job growth since 2006?
Table 1 of the release shows that this growth is indeed the strongest of any calendar year since 2006.
However, one could also look at changes over the 12 months to any month. Doing that, you could say, for example, that November 2010 with a figure of around 314,300 had a stronger level of job growth than the latest employment figure show. It was also stronger in November of 2015, when it was at about 344,900.
In other words, if you look only at changes for calendar years (between the beginning and the end of any given year), Frydenberg is right to say it’s the greatest level of job growth since 200
<a href="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.55.00%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.55.00%20AM.png" alt="" width="844" height="620">
That said, comparing the recent data to particular points in the past is less important than what the data tell us about the current trends in the labour market.
<h2>Trends</h2>
While the ABS devotes considerable resources to undertaking the survey, it is worth remembering that published employment growth is an estimate. The survey is only a sample of the population. The ABS reports on page 40 of its release that the standard error of monthly employment growth is 29,300 people, so, while employment growth recently has been strong, considerable uncertainty surrounds the numbers.
More generally, monthly movements in these data are volatile. For example, in December employment actually fell marginally, although this followed two months of strong growth and therefore was still a good outcome.
Due to this volatility in the monthly series, the ABS' trend series may provide a better guide about the extent to which recent growth is likely to persist in the future.
Over the last three months of 2015, growth in trend employment averaged around 30,300 people, compared to 43,000 based on the data adjusted only for regular seasonal fluctuations.
In other words, the data show us that the underlying trends in the job market recently have been pretty good.
Other, unofficial, data point to an improvement in the labour market. The December 2015 ANZ Job Advertisement Index showed growth compared to the same time in 2014 in their trend estimate at 11.4%, compared to around 10% in the middle of 2015.
<h2>The unemployment rate</h2>
The unemployment rate, which is also produced by the ABS in the labour force survey, has improved over the last three months. At <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">5.8%</a>, it is down from 6.2%, where it had fluctuated around since mid 2014 (see Table 1 of the release). Similarly, the trend unemployment rate has also improved and in December reached 5.8%.
<a href="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.59.59%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-25%20at%209.59.59%20AM.png" alt="" width="742" height="490">
Is 5.8% a good outcome for the unemployment rate? A simple benchmark is that average unemployment in Australia since 2000 is 5.5% – so it’s still currently a little above average.
Another way to judge the level of the unemployment rate is to look at developments in wages. If the unemployment rate was too low, growth in private sector wages would pick up. However, in the September quarter (which predates the recent drop in the unemployment rate) wages growth was soft.
To put Australian unemployment in a global context, the average unemployment rate of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations was 6.6% in November 2015. However, we need to caveat this comparison. Many countries, such as some in Europe, have unemployment rates that are, on average, higher than Australia’s, reflecting the different structure of their labour markets.
Australia’s unemployment rate has shifted down and that has persisted for three months, which gives greater confidence that it might not be temporary. However, given the volatility of these data and the uncertainty presently surrounding the outlook for the global economy it will be important to see whether these gains are maintained in coming months.
<h2>Verdict</h2>
Josh Frydenberg was right. Employment growth in 2015 was the strongest of any calendar year since 2006, although comparable growth also occurred over the 12 months to November 2010. It is also fair to say Australia has recently experienced strong jobs growth.
Review
This FactCheck is excellent in its comprehensive review and interpretation of the Labour Force Survey data. It is pointed out that labour market statistics, such as the unemployment rate and the number of people employed, are only estimates not the actual numbers in the population.
The statistics are based on the Labour Force Survey, which is a sample of 0.33% of the population about the employment status of everyone in the household aged 15 years and older. Because they are based on a sample of the population, the statistics have errors. In its monthly report the ABS publishes these “sampling errors” and clearly says that the estimate of the monthly change in the employment has a “95% confidence interval”. The media and the government rarely, if ever, report the range of estimates.
It is well known among economists that “you don’t trust one month’s figures” – the trend in labour force statistics is what’s important in understanding what’s going on in the labour market.
This FactCheck does a good job of explaining that the ABS “trend estimates” are much more reliable than the actual raw estimates. Again, the media (and politicians, when it suits them) tend to concentrate on the actual number, particularly whether it has risen or fallen. As the author also pointed out, the start and end date of the change usually makes a difference to the estimate of the change.
As the above states, although the minister’s assertion can be questioned somewhat by adopting a different start and end date, the overall conclusion that jobs growth is reasonably strong is correct. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" rel="author" style="line-height: 1.3em;"></a>
 
Tim Robinson is research fellow, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tim-robinson-138270" target="_blank">here</a>.
Phil Lewis is professor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.
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