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JLL's recent ‘Will Melbourne’s city Fringe keep kicking goals’ report explores vacancy and rental scenarios for the market, post pandemic.
In recent years, Melbourne’s Fringe office market has recorded strong rental growth in prime and secondary assets, in some cases outperforming CBD markets nationally.
In 2020 the new supply to the Fringe markets is expected to be more than 9 times the 20-year-average. By the end of 2024, Melbourne’s Fringe office market is forecast to have a net increase in stock of close to 305,300sqm, taking the total market to 1.87million sqm, JLL research forecasts. 
While 1Q20 represents the peak of the net face rental growth cycle in the Fringe, the impact the health and economic crisis could have on the Fringe vacancy is still to be determined, particularly due to the variable and flexible component of the Fringe office supply pipeline.   However, as vacancy increases with the onset of new supply and downward pressure on demand, JLL predicts we will see effective rents in older and secondary stock recording more pronounced corrections.  
JLL Research is tracking 55 projects &gt;1,000sqm that could deliver an additional 272,700 sqm of office space to the market by 2024.However many of these are unlikely to proceed without pre-commit and therefore may be deferred or put on hold.
The projected supply, withdrawals and likely demand will all impact the Fringe office vacancy which is predicted to rise to 13.7 per cent by the end of 2021 and reach a second peak in 2024 at 14.3 per cent.
Several factors will impact the variance in predicted vacancy scenarios;  
<ul>
<li>Revised Scenario V shaped recovery assumes the supply pipeline is more substantially reduced or delayed and demand bounces back strongly in 2022. Vacancy peaks in 2023 are in the region of 12.8 per cent .</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Revised Scenario longer term impact assumes a reduced or delayed supply pipeline but also continuing inactivity for the next four years, minimal withdrawal of assets for any type of development and weaker demand. Vacancy peaks in 2022 are at approximately 15.4 per cent.  </li>
</ul>
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JLL’s senior research director, Victoria, Annabel McFarlane, said: “COVID-19 is expected to have a short to medium term impact on the Melbourne Fringe markets. After five years of very strong rental growth with prime net effective rents increasing by 9.2 per cent on average annually, we are projecting that net effective rents will contract by 9.1% from the peak in 1Q20 to trough in 4Q21. 
“As demand softens, developers may postpone or place projects without any level of pre-commitment on hold as softening rents and yields impact the long-term viability of these projects. Shorter build periods and smaller project sizes gives the Fringe market a degree nimbleness as potential speculative supply is postponed in response to reduced demand.   
“However, it is not all negative and we predict some sectors to expand post pandemic, which will particularly affect the Fringe market given the occupier range. The fringe market will have an important role to play in the post COVID environment as some businesses look to split workforces and increase flexibility for staff.”
JLL’s head of metro office leasing, Victoria, Josh Tebb added, “Sectors including Technology, Health Care and the Public Services sector which are predicted to expand already have strong footholds within the Fringe markets, and these precincts are well placed to absorb these rapidly growing sectors in the recovery. 
“We are only beginning to witness the impact of COVID-19 on the Victorian office market but in these early stages, we believe the cost savings and controlled building environments of smaller buildings in the immediate fringe may appeal to some CBD tenants seeking to separate departments and project teams for the short to medium term.”
Ms McFarlane concluded, “Longer term, Melbourne is well positioned from a macroeconomic stance, with liveability, relative affordability, historic population and jobs growth and a strong education sector to support the recovery from this health and economic crisis. Office markets will need to become more metropolitan to accommodate the changing and growing workforce.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Large Melbourne supply hits post COVID-19 

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According to JLL’s annual Australian Shopping Centre Investment Review and Outlook 2020, the retail sector will be a key focus for investors seeking to take advantage of the more attractive pricing and depth of opportunities available. 
2020 Outlook:
JLL’s Joint Head of Retail Investments – Australia Jacob Swan said, “While retail investment volumes were light in the first half of 2019 ($1.8 billion), we saw a real change in momentum in the back half of the year ($4.5 billion) which saw 2H activity rise to the levels seen over the last five years.
“Institutional owners with large existing retail portfolios continue to revise their investment strategies and are likely to selectively divest assets in 2020. 
“REITs are transitioning from a long term historical strategy of accumulating retail assets to a more selective approach to portfolio construction.
“There is also likely to be a growing shift towards the re-classification of sub-sectors (such as regional and sub-regional) which may have implications for valuations, performance benchmarks and the pricing of risk by investors,” said Mr Swan.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: JLL Research
Deep pool of capital remains in 2020:
Joint Head of Retail Investments – Australia Sam Hatcher said, “A range of dynamic new capital sources are emerging to absorb these institutionally owned assets, driven by the opportunistic timing, attractive yields relative to core office/industrial and the longer term potential for re-development and re-positioning. 
“A fragmentation of ownership will continue to occur in the retail sector as major owners become more selective towards the assets they retain in their portfolios and as new players build scale in the sector.
“Properties with strong underlying land value and long term future development potential are highly sought by investors. 
“While there has been less liquidity for larger centres, there has been a consistently deep pool of capital for non-discretionary anchored centres and single-tenant retail assets.
“Freestanding supermarkets and Bunnings Warehouses with strong covenants and long leases have continued to attract investor interest.
“In addition, retail assets in metropolitan areas with development potential remain highly sought after,” said Mr Hatcher.
Private investors expected to be active in 2020:
Mr Hatcher said, “The fact that private investors were net buyers in 2019, for the first time after six consecutive years as net sellers, is significant. Private Investors were net buyers in 2008, 2009 and 2010 when asset pricing was attractive. 
“Private capital is opportunistic and is acquiring assets to take advantage of the depth of opportunities available.  Demand is also strong for core retail assets, particularly for neighbourhood shopping centres in metropolitan locations and for single-tenanted retail assets with long leases,” said Mr Hatcher.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: JLL Research
The year in review 2019:
After a slow start for retail investment transactions in 2019, liquidity improved in the second half as more capital sources emerged to take advantage of more attractive pricing.
It was the slowest first half in 2019 for retail investments since 2009.  Sales in the first half were $1.8 billion, with activity for the second half of the year stronger at $4.5 billion.  Transaction activity was at a seven year
low in 2019 in value terms ($6.3 billion)
Net buyers and sellers changed as a result of caution in the markets.
The two major institutional categories, REITs and Unlisted Funds, turned from net buyers to net sellers in 2019.  Private investors were net buyers in 2019 ($795 million) following six consecutive years of being net sellers.
Regional centres accounted for the highest proportion of shopping centres sold over 2019 at 29% or $1.8 billion.  Neighbourhood and sub-regional centres accounted for 21% (1.3 billion) and 17% ($1.1 billion) of total transactions respectively.
New South Wales accounted for 33% of total sales by value in 2019.  Victoria was the most active market by number of transactions in 2019 (39) but transactions by value fell to 19% from 32% in 2018.
Offshore investor acquisitions were stable at approximately $1.4 billion – consistent with the previous two years.  As a share of total transactions, offshore investors accounted for 22% in 2019, up from 18% in 2018.  
JLL’s Senior Director of Retail Research – Australia Andrew Quillfeldt said, “While there are limited signs of distress among major shopping centre owners, some groups are motivated to reduce their weighting/exposure to retail which will drive a steady supply of investment product.
“Fundamentals for shopping centres continue to evolve and buyers continue to price-in conservative assumptions.  Nevertheless, recent major transactions show there is still capital available for large retail assets. 
“The macro-economic drivers of retail spending suggest conditions for shopping centre fundamentals will remain largely unchanged in 2020 given the counterbalancing factors at present.    
“Annual retail completions fell by around 27% in 2019 and have been trending lower on a per capita basis for most of the past 25 years, excluding single-tenanted large format retail. The 2020 to 2023 forecasts suggest per capita supply will be around half the historical average,” said Mr Quillfeldt. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/2/5/shopping%20centre%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: JLL Research
JLL’s Head of Retail, Property &amp; Asset Management, Tony Doherty said, “Shopping centres are evolving to include new space users and sources of tenant demand. Social infrastructure such as childcare and health care are becoming more mainstream and will be a key growth opportunity for the sector. Competitive social operators are also slowly gaining traction as a new concept for shopping centres, with the introduction of technology-related businesses like esports and other experience-based retailers. 
“Owners and shopping centre managers will be keenly exploring various strategies to backfill discount department stores spaces and the strategy will vary depending on the location of the centre, the demographics and the retail mix. Many shopping centre owners will be exploring development opportunities for alternate use as a way to maximise the value of their land and as the sector embraces its mixed-use future,” said Mr Doherty. 
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Retail sector will be a focus for investors in 2020: JLL

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The headwinds facing the Sydney market are starting to ease, but further hurdles need to be overcome before the market stabilise, says a new report from JLL.
Its Australian Residential Research – April 2019 report says the market is still trying to absorb the tail end of a significant supply cycle.
The report says “the final recommendations of the Hayne Royal Commission have not tightened credit further and APRA have loosened its macro-prudential measures”.
But measures to boost demand will take time to take effect.
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JLL says that the economic outlook for the state looks positive, with the state’s infrastructure pipeline to underpin economic growth in NSW.
“The coming Federal election is also likely to stifle demand in the short-term and the result could impact the longer-term outlook if Labor’s proposed property tax changes are passed,” it said.
“Meanwhile, the economic outlook for NSW remains positive.
“The re-elected State government is committed to infrastructure spending, which will support employment growth and underlying housing demand.”
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On the demand side, both foreign and domestic investor demand continues to decline, but first home buyers remain active.
“Demand from foreign buyers is expected to continue to fall as the Federal and state governments are unlikely to remove foreign stamp duties or foreign investment application fees, which would offer some relief to foreign investors in the near future,” JLL said.
Meanwhile, apartment supply pipeline remains subdued, as fewer projects progress to construction.
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Apartment values are falling, however there appears to be some easing in decline.
“Capital values will continue to face pressure in 2019 and experience further decline,” the report said.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/30/New%20Project%204.jpg" alt="">
Apartment rents declined across Sydney, while the vacancy rate showed signs of stabilising.
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Gross apartment yields remain stable and the lowest of all capital cities.
“Teh vacany rate is expected to stabilise towards the backend of the year,” JLL said.
“Rents are expected to follow, with any further decline likely to be marginal.”
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney apartment market headwinds subside, but much still to be done: JLL

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Despite positive economic conditions and population growth, the Inner Melbourne apartment marker continued to soften in the first quarter of 2019, JLL have said.
The firm’s Australia Residential Research - April 2019 said that despite a cooling housing market, favourable economic conditions in the state continue.
Victoria continues to lead the country in economic growth, the report said.
“Victoria’s strong economic fundamentals will alleviate the severity of the current downturn and provide a healthy long-term outlook for the market,” it said.
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Meanwhile, demand is supported by credit conditions that have improved slightly.
But residential buyers remain apprehensive, JLL said.  
“The continued absence of investors means that price growth is unlikely to return to its previous peak for an extended period.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/30/New%20Project%2010.jpg" alt="">
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Apartment completions will decline in 2019 before rising in 2020 and 2021, JLL said.
Vacancy remains low, but rental growth rates diverge between precincts.
“Rents will continue to rise with vacancy remaining low,” it said.
“Going forward, limited investor stock may result in further falling vacancy which is likely to drive rental growth.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/30/New%20Project%2012.jpg" alt="">
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Prices continue to fall, reflecting subdued demand while yields are likely to soften on the back of declining price.
“More projects will be deferred in 2019, as pricing continues to cool,” the report said.
“Development activity will eventually rise when the market becomes more fluid again and more buyers are able to purchase off the plan property.”
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Melbourne apartment market softens despite economic conditions: JLL

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The Brisbane apartment market will continues to stabilise, a new report from JLL said.
The firm’s Australia Residential Research - April 2019 said that as supply and demand recalibrate, the Inner Brisbane apartment market will continue to stabilise throughout 2019 and into 2020.
“Inner Brisbane’s apartment supply has been steadily declining since 2016,” it said.
“In 2018, supply was around 27% below that peak.”
Supply forecasts for 2019 are estimated at 40% below 2018, and less than half of the 2016 peak.
“As poor sentiment and apprehensions around oversupply receded, the medium-term outlook for Brisbane’s inner city apartments is increasingly bright,” JLL said.
“While credit conditions and the Federal election will keep activity subdued in the short-term, a rapidly improving supply/demand balance should see Brisbane lead the next residential cycle.”
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Underlying demand will continue to be boosted by robust population growth, particularly net interstate migration.
“Increased infrastructure investment and an improving labour market should both support the local economy,” the report said.
“Steady population growth will continue to support underlying demand and aid the absorption of excess apartment stock.”
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While development conditions remain challenging, supply is expected to remain subdued for several years.
“Developers are unlikely to pursue high density projects over the next few years,” JLL said.
“Instead, they are more likely to focus on ‘less-is-more’, luxury and boutique developments.”
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Apartment values and rents are expected to stabilise as the market rebalances into 2020.
“Negative price growth continues, but the pace of decline is decelerating,” the report said.
“The rental market is showing strong signs of improvement, with vacancy and rents stabilising.”
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Brisbane apartment market stabilising as demand and supply approach balance: JLL 

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JLL’s new Brisbane headquarters, Central Plaza, has earned a 6 star Green Star Interiors v1.1 rating.
The Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA) placed the tenancy, on levels 39 and 40 at 345 Queen Street (pictured), in the World Leadership category.
6 stars is the highest rating that the GBCA can award in Australia.
The JLL Brisbane fitout, for which used its own in-house expertise rather than external consultants, is one of the only two fitouts to be rated a 6 star under Green Star interiors v1.1.
JLL’s Managing Director – Queensland, Geoff McIntyre, said: "this great achievement reflects the collaboration of so many different parts of our business from project management through to sustainability services. We have set a new internal standard, and we can roll out all future projects using this model."
JLL's Head of Energy and Sustainability Services – Asia Pacific, Matt Clifford, said: “this project is a clear demonstration that with the right approach, and the right leadership, achieving world-class levels of sustainability doesn’t need to be hard or costly. Rather, it can be simple, cost-effective and good for the environment, while delivering a fantastic place for our staff to work." 
“The use of LED lighting and timed sensors in the JLL Brisbane office has reduced the consumption to 33 per cent of recommended Australia Standards for lighting, which is expected to result in significantly lower electricity costs," he concluded.
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JLL Brisbane headquarters achieves 6 star Green Star rating

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Shopping Centre Managers have been reporting refurbishments are the key to retail success in a competitive market, according to the latest JLL Retail Survey.
The survey shows food operators continue to drive tenant enquiry as well as centre managers continued optimism about factors within their control – refurbishments and tenant remix. However more negative about external factors like fuel prices
JLL’s 19th Retail Centre Managers’ Survey was undertaken in August across 88 JLL-managed retail shopping centres nationally. The majority of centres were neighbourhood and sub-regional centres.
JLL’s Head of Property &amp; Asset Management – Australia, Richard Fennell said, “The Survey showed that 42% of JLL Centre Managers made a positive comment about the recent performance of their centres in relation to an improvement in sales trends, tenant sentiment, foot traffic and/or leasing enquiry."
“JLL Centre Managers continued to view ‘expected changes to tenancy profile’ as having the most positive impact on the MAT outlook or their centres. More than half of survey respondents (61%) stated that it would drive sales growth over the next 12 months, up from 55% in the previous survey in February this year,” noted Mr Fennell.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/31/JLL%20Retail%20Graph%201.JPG" alt="">
When asked what factors were impacting turnover performance, the survey found the strongest positive factors were ‘expected changes in tenancy profile’ (with a net balance of 54%), ‘growth expectations within trade area’ (30%) and ‘planned refurbishment activity’ at 17%
The top three negative factors impacting on turnover have remained consistent with previous surveys. Fuel prices (with a net balance of -26%), competition from other centres (-25%) and online retailing (-20%) remain the top concerns as they have over the past year.
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Refurbishment of shopping centres is leading to trading success: JLL

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Three Australian cities, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, feature in the Top 15 most transparent real estate markets in the world, according to JLL’s new City Transparency Report analyzing 158 cities.
By country rankings, Australia has been consistently ranked in the top two globally.
JLL and LaSalle’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index, which has "tracked the evolution of real estate transparency for two decades," has been expanded to cover 158 metropolitan areas across the globe.
In the inaugural City Transparency Index: ‘2018 Transparency in 158 cities’, London tops the ranking with the world’s most transparent real estate market.
Los Angeles, Sydney, San Francisco and New York City round out the top five.
CEO of JLL Australia, Stephen Conry said:
“We see a strong relationship between transparency and cross-border investment activity.
“New investment mandates into Australia from cross-border investors typically specify Sydney and Melbourne as their preferred destination with Brisbane increasingly identified as a market on the cusp of a cyclical recovery.
“For the three Australian cities highlighted in the JLL Global rankings – Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – the cross border investment figures for 2018 demonstrate the investor interest.
Among their finding JLL figures also showed that 89% of all offshore investment in the first nine months of 2018 has been concentrated in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.
Offshore investment into office, retail and industrial totaled $5.1 billion in the first nine months, compared to $5.73 billion across all of Australia.
“For Queensland, the offshore proportion of total investment has been high at 46.3% and New South Wales and Victoria are both at about 25%,” said Conry.
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Sydney ranks third in the world for real estate transparency: JLL

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Quarterly net absorption across CBD office markets has hit the highest level since Q4 2007, according to recent findings from JLL Research.
JLL Research's Q3 2018 statistics on national office markets showed positive net absorption of 151,200 square metre over the quarter and 258,600 square metres over the 12 months to September 2018.
The national CBD office market vacancy rate compressed 9.1% in Q3 2018 a reduction of 1.8 percentage points over the year to September 2018.
“Labour force surveys show that corporate Australia is increasing headcount which has translated into positive leasing enquiry and activity,” stated JLL Head of Research, Australia, Andrew Ballantyne. 
"While Melbourne continues to be the standout performer, the leasing market upturn is more diverse with above trend net absorption in Canberra, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/JLL%20Graph%201.JPG" alt="">
The Melbourne CBD recorded 79,900 square metres of net absorption in Q3 2018 and 187,800 square metres over the 12 months to September 2018.
The Melbourne CBD vacancy rate tightened from 4.6% in Q2 2018 to 4.0% in Q3 2018 – the lowest level since Q2 2008.
Melbourne CBD prime gross effective rents increased by 1.1% over Q3 2018 and by 8.7% over the 12 months to September 2018.
“The Melbourne CBD office leasing market juggernaut continues to roll on. Melbourne is one of the world’s strongest performing cities and we continue to see a diverse range of industry sectors expanding their occupational footprint in the Melbourne CBD," JLL Head of Office Leasing, Australia, Tim O’Connor said.
“The Melbourne result was even more impressive as it included the relocation of the Victorian WorkCover Authority to a new premise in Geelong.
“The Melbourne CBD development pipeline will deliver new product over the next two years with 2020 expected to be the largest year for completions since 1991. However, the strength of the demand-side of the equation has led to a downward revision in the vacancy rate. We project 2020 vacancy will be in the 6% territory – well below equilibrium of 7% to 9% for the Melbourne CBD."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/11/JLL%20Graph%202.JPG" alt="">
JLL Research found that the Sydney CBD recorded 8,800 square metres of net absorption over the 12 months to September 2018 and vacancy was 4.7%. Low vacancy continues to exert upward pressure on Sydney CBD rents. Prime gross effective rents increased by 0.8% over the quarter and by 10.1% over the 12 months to September 2018.
“Co-working operators are really ramping up their presence in the Sydney CBD. Two more WeWork facilities opened in Q3 and we are speaking with a number ofpotential new co-working operators. One of the challenges for new entrants is the lack of contiguous space in the Sydney CBD,” O’Connor said. 
The Brisbane CBD recorded 15,400 square metres of net absorption in Q3 2018 and vacancy tightened to 13.9%. Over the past 12 months, net absorption in the Brisbane CBD has totaled 39,600 square metres – 29% above the 40-year average of 30,600 square metres.
“The Brisbane CBD leasing market recovery is starting to gather momentum with prime grade vacancy (8.2%) tightening to the lowest level since Q412. The next phase of the Brisbane recovery will see a reduction in leasing incentives and an improvement in prime effective rents,” Ballantyne said.
The Perth CBD recorded net absorption of 17,600 square metres in Q3 2018 and 34,000 square metres over the 12 months to September 2018. Vacancy remains elevated (22.0%), but the spread between prime (18.0%) and secondary (28.1%) grade vacancy remains wide.
The Adelaide CBD recorded positive net absorption of 14,700 square metres in Q3 2018 and 23,200 square metres over the 12 months to September 2018. The quarterly net absorption in Adelaide was the strongest since Q408. Vacancy tightened to 13.7% with prime grade vacancy moving back into single digit territory (8.3%) in Q3 2018.
Ballantyne said defence, resources and professional services are growth sectors of the Adelaide CBD office market. The expansion of the defence sector and competition for skilled labour has led to organisations shifting operations into the CBD. BAE Systems moved into the CBD from Edinburgh Parks in Q3.
Canberra recorded net absorption of 35,700 square metres in Q3 and vacancy tightened to 11.6%. Low vacancy in the prime grade sector (6.2%) has resulted in rental growth with prime gross effective rents increasing by 3.7% over the 12 months to September 2018.
Ballantyne concluded by noting Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide will be the office markets to watch closely in 2019. Leasing enquiry and activity is positive, prime grade vacancy has tightened in Brisbane and Adelaide and we expect owners will start winding back incentives to a level more associated with current vacancy rates.
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Net absorption across CBD office markets reach their highest levels since 2007: JLL

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Purchasers should be ready to take advantage of counter-cyclical opportunities, says property developer Don O'Rorke, citing the Brisbane apartment market as a good opportunity to buy.
"There are multiple indicators that Brisbane's apartment market is at the bottom of its cycle and the good news is that there are already signs of the market moving upwards," he said.
"I encourage buyers to think counter-cyclically and act now before they miss the bottom of the market. Those who wait  for news that the recovery is in full swing will find that it is  too late as prices are expected to rebound.
"We are already seeing a surge in enquiry from local owner-occupiers for our Spire Residences, as the focus is changing from price-led enquiry to a stronger focus on quality and lifestyle from buyers who are taking a longer-term view."
The executive chairman of Consolidated Properties Group was speaking after a recent report from JLL highlighted Brisbane was edging towards an upswing, at the same time other markets are still cooling.  
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/28/cycle.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/28/cycle.jpg" alt="">
The JLL Apartment Market report places the Brisbane apartment market as around a trough, meaning apartment values and rents are expected to start moving back into positive territory over the coming years.
Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth have been charted in a mature growth or downturn phase with continued downward pressure on pricing expected.
Leigh Warner, JLL national director of residential research, says values in the Greater Brisbane apartment market only decreased by 1.8 per cent in the 12 months to December 2017, which is the slowest rate of decline in some years and the market has shown further signs of stabilisation in early-2018. 
By comparison, prices in Melbourne and Sydney continued to grow through 2017, but have slowed sharply in 2018 to date.
"Brisbane has had a relatively soft landing. While sale rates have declined, pricing never grew to the same extent as it did in Sydney and Melbourne over recent years, which has limited the downside in Brisbane," he said. 
“So now as the larger southern markets face an inevitable slowing, Brisbane is already much closer to coming out the other side.
"The stabilisation of the market reflects both demand and supply factors. 
A recovery in local economic and population growth, along with strong infrastructure spending, have all boosted the demand side. On the supply side, tighter lending conditions have meant that new project starts have fallen sharply and the number of apartments completed will fall sharply this year and next.”
Testament to this reduction in supply, apartment approvals fell by 30.8 per cent in the 12 months to January 2018.
"Our view is that while market fundamentals may remain challenging in Brisbane in the short term, the medium-term outlook over a two-three year horizon is now quite good,” said Mr Warner.
"While rental yields in Brisbane are hovering around 4.8 per cent, and remain favourable for investors compared to Sydney (3.8 per cent) and Melbourne (4 per cent), we see this recovery being led predominantly by owner-occupiers who are willing to pay a premium for superior location and finishes."
 
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