Investor Activity

<p>Capital city apartment rents have increased by around 5 per cent compared with a 7 per cent rise in city house rents since the start of this year, according to CoreLogic.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Rental demand is being deflected back towards inner-city precincts as other areas become less affordable for renters,&rdquo; suggests Tim Lawless, director of research for CoreLogic.</p>

<p>Average capital city apartment rents across Australia have seen a fall of around 1 per cent, according to CoreLogic between March 2020 and September this year.</p>

<p>Melbourne&rsquo;s apartment sector has been the weakest (with rents down 7 per cent), followed by Sydney (down 1 per cent).</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=3260 project_image_fid=62315]</p>

<p>Lawless advised that growing investor demand for apartments was driving recovery.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Investor demand has historically been skewed towards the medium- to high-density sector, probably because of the lower maintenance and often higher yields associated with higher density-style dwellings,&rdquo; he told The Australian Financial Review.</p>

<p>It has been noted investor mortgage demand had increased from a record low of around 23 per cent to more than 30 per cent.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=2806 project_image_fid=175415]</p>

<p>Apartment price rises have slipped well behind houses while yields have risen, which makes it more attractive to many investors, according to CoreLogic.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Both the lower entry point and higher yield profile may be an attractive option for investors as they become more active in the housing market,&rdquo; Lawless says.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Once international borders reopen, it&rsquo;s likely rental markets will see an immediate and positive impact as migrants, such as students, seek out rental accommodation.&quot;</p>


Apartment price rises have slipped well behind houses while yields have risen, which makes it more attractive to many investors, according to CoreLogic

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Rental prices beginning to rise in inner city markets: CoreLogic

<p>Ryrie Home is the latest development from Franz&eacute; Developments.</p>

<p>The mixed-use development, which broke ground earlier this year, is set to deliver Geelong&rsquo;s first major hotel and apartment project in 20 years.</p>

<p>Designed by&nbsp;Architectus,&nbsp;Ryrie&nbsp;Home will deliver a landmark Holiday Inn tower, 16 luxury apartments at&nbsp;Ryrie&nbsp;Residences, and a separate 11-storey tower,&nbsp;Ryrie&nbsp;Home.</p>

<p>As <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/vic/urbans-most-popular-vic-apartments-for-investors-in-q1-2021" target="_blank">Urban&#39;s most popular investor project for Q1 2021</a>, it&#39;s more than just the location&nbsp;that stands out. But with prices starting as low as $350,000, its both affordable and appealing.</p>

<p>Ryrie Home has been so popular with investors&nbsp;likely due to them eyeing its huge potential to downsize later in life.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559 project_image_fid=88241]</p>

<p>Geelong is well-known and much loved for its big city feel, without the congestion. Affectionately called G-Town, everything is within easy reach, so you can spend more time doing the things you love, be it sports, shopping, or exploring the caf&eacute;s and diverse eateries.</p>

<p>Situated at 44 Ryrie Street, Ryrie Home holds a prime position in the center of Geelong a short walk from the acclaimed Geelong Gallery.</p>

<p>Placed on a main thoroughfare the development is 5 minute walk from shopping centres,&nbsp;boutiques and a number of dining establishments.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/ryrie-home-44-ryrie-street-geelong"><img alt="" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/geelong.png" /></a></p>

<p>Slightly beyond those is a Cinema and the MoPa Museum. And further afield&nbsp;are acclaimed dining institutions like&nbsp;Restaurant IGNI and the&nbsp;Empire Grill</p>

<p>Try taking the bike for a ride along the Geelong waterfront and experience the beaches and Royal Geelong Yacht Club, or enjoy an evening out by the water at bars like the Sailors Rest or Edge Geelong.</p>

<p>If you are looking for an exercise alternative to the nearby Fitness First, there is always Johnston Park</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559 project_image_fid=88245]</p>

<p>The project features exposed concrete ceilings and floor-to-ceiling windows, merging a minimalist aesthetic with a sense of modern luxury in the bayside location.</p>

<p>Every&nbsp;home in the development features&nbsp;a private balcony where you can enjoy the panoramic bay views and alfresco dining year-round.</p>


The 109 residence mixed use tower draws on its Geelong Quarter location part of the fastest growing regional city in Australia.



jordan_55689

Walking tour: What's within walking distance from Geelong's Ryrie Home apartments?

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<p><strong>EXPERT INSIGHT</strong></p>

<p>Investors have clearly now joined the stampede of buyers rushing housing markets, but the overall home loan market share of investors remains at record low levels, offsetting any concerns by the RBA and financial regulators of potential market disruption.</p>

<p>The ABS reports that the value of national investor lending seasonally adjusted increased by 9.4% over January to $6.4bn which is the highest monthly total recorded since May 2018.</p>

<p>Despite the sharp increase, the overall home loan market share of investors fell to a new record low 19.1% and well behind the long-term average of 33.1%. Recent growth in investor lending still lags the remarkable increases reported by owner-occupiers and first home buyers.</p>

<p>During the similar strong market conditions in 2014, investor market share exceeded 40% which resulted in actions by financial regulators to subdue activity from this group. </p>

<p>This reflected concerns that record levels of highly-leveraged investors may cause disruptions to housing markets in the event of an increase in official interest rates pushing down home prices.</p>

<p>WA reported the sharpest increase in monthly investor lending over the past year, rising by 47.2%, followed by QLD up 26.7%, NSW up 17.9% and SA up 0.4%. Monthly investor lending in VIC however fell 1.0% over the past year.</p>

<p>NSW accounted for the most investor activity over January with 40.9% of total national activity with $2.21bn in loans approved followed by VIC well behind with $1.47bn, QLD $0.89bn, WA $0.34bn and SA $0.24bn.</p>

<p>The average NSW investor loan reported over January was the highest of all the states at $658,900 followed by VIC 537,388, QLD $441,037, WA $411,649 and SA $368,232.</p>

<p>Although investor lending is on the rise, the overall residential loan market share remains at record low levels with current strong prices growth clearly driven by unprecedented owner-occupier lending activity.</p>

<p>Any misguided move to raise interest rates to quell strong buyer activity would clearly place in jeopardy the current fragile and nascent economic recovery – something the RBA has clearly acknowledged.”</p>

<p><strong>Dr Andrew Wilson </strong><em>is the chief economist at Archistar</em></p>
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awilson

investors have joined the stampede of buyers rushing housing markets: Archistar's Andrew Wilson

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<p>It’s a great time to be a landlord in Australia. With rare exceptions, vacancies are ultra low, rents are rising and there’s massive momentum behind prices.</p>

<p>A nationwide property boom is under way (with the big city inner-ring unit markets the exception) and the curious thing is that investors haven’t been joining the party. </p>

<p>The growth we saw in most markets in 2020 was driven by owner-occupiers, with first-home buyers leading the charge and other home buyers, especially lifestyle-seekers, prominent as well.</p>

<p>Investors were sitting on the fence, worried firstly about the September Cliff which failed to materialise and now apparently concerned about a potential March Cliff.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=600]</p>

<p>They’ve been waiting to see what would happen, before making decisions. And here’s what has happened while they’ve been fence-sitting – the new data from Domain shows that all capital cities had house price growth ranging from solid to strong in 2020, as did most of regional Australia. There was particularly notable uplift in the December Quarter.</p>

<p>This confirms earlier data from CoreLogic and both confirm the anecdotal evidence from the coal-face of markets which shows properties receiving multiple offers and selling for more than the asking prices, often before being formally listed.</p>

<p>Other research shows that rents have been rising in many parts of Australia, on the back of vacancy rates so low that it constitutes a national rental crisis.</p>

<p>So the hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.</p>

<p>If they’d bought a year ago in many parts of Australia, their properties would now be worth 10%, 15% or 20% more than they paid.</p>

<p>For those who bought in sexy lifestyle locations like Byron Bay and the upmarket areas of the Sunshine Coast, a $1 million investment a year ago would now be worth around $1.3 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=84861]</p>

<p>If you’d bought a $400,000 property in Bendigo 12 months ago, it would likely now be worth around $460,000 (based on the median price data).</p>

<p>So it’s time for investors to stop procrastinating and get busy. And the latest ABS data on loans indicates that, at last, investors are starting to get involved.</p>

<p>This, in fact, is typical investor behaviour. Investors don’t lead property cycles, they react to them. They stampede into the market when they hear there’s a boom happening.</p>

<p>So I expect a big surge of activity from investors in 2021. There are too many good reasons to become buyers of well-located real estate and make it available to a hungry rental market.</p>

<p>The uplift in investor buyers will add further energy to the momentum already happening in markets across the nation.</p>

<p>It will make a national property boom that much more certain.</p>

<p>Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au</p>

<p>ryder@hotspotting.com.au</p>

<p>twitter.com/hotspotting</p>
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The hesitant investors have missed the first phase of the national property boom.



terryryder

It’s time for real estate investors to stop procrastinating and get busy: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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<p>The fundamental cynicism of major banks has been on display in the past week, with lenders exploiting APRA’s anti-investor measures to boost their profits.</p>
<p>Most major lenders have lifted interest rates for investors and then tried to represent the cash grab as a “we had no choice” situation caused by the regulators.</p>
<p>There is no justification for the interest rate hike. Lenders have already tightened their lending criteria in a number of ways designed to eliminate many fringe dwellers from the possibility of borrowing to buy investment properties.</p>
<p>The interest rate hike is clearly not motivated by a desire to further restrict investor activity. It’s simply a profit-boosting play which can be explained away, conveniently but dishonestly, as a consequence of APRA moves.</p>
<p>How do we know?  Because the big banks and other lenders have lifted interest rates on existing investor loans, not just on new ones.</p>
<p>Increasing interest rates on existing loans does nothing to reduce investor borrowing to buy real estate. All it does is boost bank profits. </p>
<p>If they were fair dinkum in their claims that they’re acting “as part of our commitment in meeting APRA’s benchmark” (as Westpac tried to claim), they would lift rates on new loans only.</p>
<p><span>The Bank of Queensland, which lifted its standard variable rate for investor loans 29 basis points, has a master of weasel words on staff called Matt Baxby who came up with this classic to justify the unjustifiable this week: “</span>We are adopting a prudent position that is aligned with the market and balances our own growth objectives with the risks associated with investor lending in general and the overall growth of investor lending in the market as a whole.”</p>
<p>If you can make sense of that statement, please write and let me know. I think a reasonable translation is: “We’re shafting a significant proportion of our existing customers but we’re hoping you won’t notice.”</p>
<p>Beyond that, the APRA measures and lenders’ response to them are an extraordinary case of overkill by bureaucrats who clearly don’t have a grip on market reality. </p>
<p>The faceless APRA boffins who make their pronouncements never stand up to be identified or face any scrutiny of their actions. If we had the opportunity to question them, whoever they are, I’m quite certain we would discover their understanding of real estate markets is wafer thin.</p>
<p>Essentially, Sydney is having a boom and all of Australia is being punished for it.</p>
<p>Taking punitive measures that apply nationally in response to an issue in Sydney is tantamount to amputating a leg to cure a sprained ankle.</p>
<p><span>I note </span>that the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) has questioned the decision by lenders to increase interest rates for both new and established property investors, suggesting a different approach should’ve been taken to ensure a sustainable property market.</p>
<p>PIPA chair Ben Kingsley said APRA’s pressure tactics to force individual lenders to lock out investors have raised both concerns and question marks for the industry.</p>
<p>“Increasing borrowing costs for investors who bought into the market some time ago seems unfair and detracts from what should be the common goal of creating a balanced property market,” he said.</p>
<p>PIPA suggested that more targeted measures to slow new investor lending in certain areas, such as decreasing and restricting borrowing power for new investors in locations where the market is particularly heated, would have been a better approach.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Couldn’t agree more.</span></p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Fundamental cynicism of major banks on display: Terry Ryder

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Dwelling values, particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne, have been falling now for a number of months.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The latest ABS housing finance data indicates that the impact of these falls is now seemingly being felt in demand for new mortgages.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">While the value of lending fell over the month for owner occupiers and investors, the slowdown was much more substantial for investors, and the sharp month-on-month fall follows a downwards trend that has been evident across several rounds of macro prudential measures over the past few years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This isn’t really a surprise given so much of the lending to investors has been focused on Sydney and Melbourne and these cities are seeing values fall and yields at close to historic lows while investors are also incurring higher mortgage rates than owner occupiers, with additional rate premiums they use interest-only mortgages,.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In March 2018 there was $31.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was the lowest monthly value of commitments since August 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Housing finance commitments were split between $21.0 billion to owner occupiers and $10.9 billion to investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Owner occupier commitments fell by -1.9% over the month to their lowest value since December 2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Investor finance commitments were down by -9.0% over the month, falling to their lowest value since January 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The declining trend in investor housing finance commitments had slowed recently, however, the -9.0% monthly fall was the largest decline since September 2015 when they fell -10.4% over the month as lenders tightened in order to remain under the 10% APRA speed limit in annualised terms.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $21.0 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers was split between: $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.3 billion for the refinance of established dwellings and $11.6 billion for the purchase of established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Each type of owner occupier commitment fell over the month however, year-on-year the value of lending for construction of dwellings was the only owner occupier finance segment that was lower.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $10.9 billion worth of investor housing finance commitments in March 2018 was split between $1.0 billion for construction of new dwellings and $9.9 billion for established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The value of lending for new construction was -18.9% lower over the month while the value of commitments for established dwellings was -7.9% lower. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking more broadly at finance commitments for new housing vs established housing shows a decline over the month for both.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The chart also shows how the established market, of which there are substantially more properties, dwarfs the new housing market.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Over the month there was $4.1 billion worth of commitments for new housing and $21.5 billion for existing housing (excluding refinances).<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Commitments for new housing fell by -1.9% over the month while commitments for existing stock were -6.8% lower.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A month’s worth of data doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend but it was quite a substantial fall in the value of housing finance commitments in March, particularly for investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>CoreLogic has believed for some time that investment in housing, particularly in the most expensive markets of Sydney and Melbourne, made little sense given stretched affordability, yield compression and little near-term value growth prospects with values currently declining.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Despite this, lending finance data (which will be updated next Tuesday) has continued to show investor activity which is well above average levels in NSW and Vic.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>We would expect that the coming release will show a further weakening of demand in these two states.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over the coming months it is anticipated that mortgage activity, particularly from the investment sector will remain weak relative to recent years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>With APRA recently announcing they will lift the 10% speed limit on investment credit growth from July 1, it will be important to watch the trend in investment credit flows. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There have been recent reports that lenders are starting to reduce the interest rate premiums on some interest only loans and investment loans, however any reduction in rates could be offset by stricter serviceability testing on borrower expenses and incomes as well as the prospect for renewed focus from lenders to reduce their exposure to high loan to income ratio loans as well as maintaining their reluctance to take on high loan to valuation ratio loans. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></span></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Is a crunch in investor mortgage demand now starting to bite?

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<div>Annual credit growth slowed to 4.5 per cent as at June 2018, well down from 5.4 per cent a year earlier, according to the Reserve Bank's latest Financial Aggregates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Broad money growth fell to an anemic 1.9 per cent year-on-year in June - the lowest level since Bobby Brown was #1 in the Australian charts with Humpin' Around in September 1992 - a disagreeable image I'm sure you'll agree (and the credit aggregates weren't too flash either).</div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/--MhvxBg4fw4/W2AWC6XtIbI/AAAAAAAArSs/5Y5zgLbG2z4cn2rQlU91uA4FfacJWXP7QCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1384"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit shrank 1.3 per cent year-on-year, and the annual growth in business credit slowed to just 3.2 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing credit held up reasonably well at 5.6 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The monthly growth in mortgages was all driven by owner-occupiers, with total investment credit actually declining for only the third time since these records just before Bobby Brown. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more investors also now switching to paying down principal, investor credit as a share of total housing market outstanding loans fell to 33.5 per cent, which puts investor market share broadly back in line with the average level seen over the past 18 years since June 2000 of 33.2 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j57Ykdonboo/W2AWC8rQffI/AAAAAAAArSo/igt0b2G41KgtCLYL9WArzYDP-iq1U03YwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="350" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1452"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although housing credit as measured here is slowing, the APRA ADI figures also released today grew at a faster clip, implying in turn that non-ban lenders are picking up some of the slack. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of of the larger players Westpac recorded solid growth in its home loan book, while Macquarie, Commonwealth Bank, and NAB notched higher totals for investment loans for the month of June.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In saying that, NAB's investor loan book has recorded only 2 per cent growth over the past year and CBA and ANZ are in negative territory, so there is potentially ample headroom for more investor lending to return forthwith (the 10 per cent growth cap has been shelved as redundant). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B8BLQUx19Os/W2AcFelOndI/AAAAAAAArTE/dx-Gm0xyewsozM30UPyib3Pog-EQZBE8QCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="1369"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, housing credit still seems to be flowing freely enough, but the economy really needs to start generating household income growth to get things moving again. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Credit strangle continues for property investors: Pete Wargent

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<div>Personal credit growth was negative again in November 2017, as it was in October 2017, and on an annual basis it has been negative since 2015 as Aussies elect to cut up their credit cards (or at least, apply for fewer cards and personal loans).<br><br>Housing credit continues to swing across from investors to owner-occupiers - in part due to loan switching - but in aggregate the annual rate of growth at 6.4 per cent remains higher than a year earlier when it was 6.3 per cent. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0yCCn4mLAfY/WkdoqRqLgVI/AAAAAAAAnus/pa_QXMs6Mc0Doek8mBChxLX3KX27AzleQCLcBGAs/s640/RBA1.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1354"></div>
<p><br><span>Annual credit growth was steady year-on-year at 5.4 per cent.</span><br><br></p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ljdXLu8nUFQ/WkdorDaKAvI/AAAAAAAAnu0/4IleZattKeA89bssvZ6Yp07INR016KMHwCLcBGAs/s640/RBA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1365"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Cross-checking to APRA's monthly figures we can see that ADIs grew their investment loan exposures at just 2.8 per cent, miles below the arbitrary 10 per cent speed limit, so there is plenty of potential capacity for investment loans to pick up again in 2018. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-q_3V-T87s3I/Wkdoqtj6aSI/AAAAAAAAnuw/BV3AtDI3h-w22j7p8K64BFth2AOnLL7uwCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1370"></div>
<div>
<br>On the other hand, APRA's figures showed that monthly owner-occupier credit grew by an up-tempo 0.56 per cent to $1.04 trillion, suggesting that non-banks have picked up the slack created by tighter lending standards.<br><br>
</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Low mortgage stress</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The unemployment rate contin<span>ued to trend lower in 2017, now down to its lowest level in 4½ years with further declines to come in 2018, and S&amp;P has its 30-day prime mortgage arrears at the lowest level we've seen. Arrears may or may not pick up a bit in 2018, but they are presently tracking at such a remarkably low level it could hardly be a surprise if they did. </span>
</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2yg8nUBdByQ/WkdopQzcUuI/AAAAAAAAnuo/5fduST_I4iEZnj-8g1srhqzQhTmDp1mXgCLcBGAs/s640/Arrears.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1344"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's figures suggest that the ratio of household debt to disposable income will likely tick past 200 per cent in 2018, but serviceability remains very comfortable for most households, with the cost of living indexes very benign and household income growth passed its nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to see that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) incorporated the two uppermost points I raised at the UBS Conference panel debate, namely on Australia's household debt distribution by quintile and the tremendous growth of mortgage offsets (see borrowers and buffers) in its latest paper on household debt (though it appears to have given the buffers point relatively short shrift!).<br><br>The fact is, though, that mortgages are easier to service than they used to be, and overall households are managing pretty well, while the outlook is improving nicely in the resources states.<br><br>Roll on 2018 and the 'surprisingly resilient' articles...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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