Industrial Market

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There are five major market movements that will affect how the Australian infrastructure investment boom is set to peak in 2020, combined with new trends in e-commerce, manufacturing, logistics, and location, according to a new report from Centuria Capital Group (Centuria).
The report found, industrial property has been the most in-demand real estate sector globally for the past two years, and the combination of domestic and international demand for properties in Australia has seen sustained growth in asset values and rents.
It was written by Centuria’s recently appointed Head of Funds Management, Ross Lees, who looked into the factors driving returns from industrial real estate in Australia, and explaied why the outlook for the sector is increasingly positive.
Within the report he notes, prime industrial rents in Sydney are predicted to increase by 7.8% - 12.5% over the next three years, while yields are likely to tighten by 15-25 basis points and values likely to increase by 10.5%-15.2% because economic and social forces at play providing significant tailwinds for industrial property.
"With infrastructure spend peaking next year – and a strong link between infrastructure spend, the economy and industrial property – infrastructure investment will make a significant difference to demand for industrial assets."
"The current infrastructure program is different from the last major spend, on the M7, which opened up new land and allowed for new cheap industrial property to be built cheaply in the newly-serviced areas – creating a net negative for industrial property."
"The current spend, conversely, is happening inside the band – on transport in particular. The consequences for industrial property are likely to be very different."
"Not only is no new land being ‘opened up’ but industrial space is being taken out of the market to allow for the light rail – reducing supply and pushing up prices. This is already happening according to the latest figures – despite our weaker economy."
Another factor is E-commerce’s role in industrial property’s positive fundamentals has also been apparent for some time as it has fueled increased demand.
For every sqm lost in bricks and mortar retailing, 3sqm of warehousing is required. 
The report noted, it is also one of several drivers that have created a global focus on logistics and the importance of supply chain management as a competitive advantage, as well as boosting ‘clean’ manufacturing, customers’ demand for fast delivery, so-called ‘last mile logistics’ has been identified as a key differentiator, and means that warehouses located too far from consumers are less in demand than smaller warehouses closer in.
Meanwhile, clean manufacturing is on the rise – automation, robotics and AI are helping Australian manufacturers control two of their long-standing challenges, high labour costs, the need for scale in a small market and distance to market.
In all, Australian industrial property is on the precipice of strong growth, Centuria concluded.
<a href="https://centuria.com.au/news-and-media/how-australias-2020-infra-peak-will-fuel-industrial-property/" target="_blank"> Read the full report here</a>. 
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Why Australia's industrial infrastructure boom is set to peak in 2020: Centuria

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There is strong investment demand at present in the Brisbane industrial market, according to the latest report from Herron Todd White.
The valuation firm found, private investors generally seek well leased, modern assets in prime locations (close to major transport routes and infrastructure) along with long WALEs and certain terms.
They report said, "we expect to see this stronger sales activity continue through the remainder of 2019 due to the low interest rate environment, however we do note that investors are holding on to well leased, quality assets due to the lower risk profile these properties offer."
The first half of 2019 saw the Brisbane industrial market continue to demonstrate the cautiousness shown in 2018.
Prime and secondary precincts were increasingly tightly held with limited properties offered to the market, a major factor in the decline in sales volumes.
Mid 2019 post federal election saw confidence return to sellers and subsequently an increase in sales volumes.
The HTW valuers said, "notably, institutional investors are able to acquire larger assets on subsix per cent yields."
"Other prime investment yields continue to tighten, generally ranging from six to seven per cent."
"On the back of this, secondary yields have also seen some firming with recent sales showing a range of seven to eight per cent."
"Despite the flourish of activity post-election, we expect sales volumes to remain strong for the remainder of 2019," they concluded.
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Brisbane industrial market sees strong investment confidence return: HTW Industrial

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The industrial market continues to be driven by a supply shortage and growth in e-commerce creating a greater need for warehouse and logistics space, according to the latest report from Herron Todd White
The report found, Melbourne’s industrial market on the back of this demand has continued to perform strongly over the past 12 months.
This has seen yields sitting at 30-year record lows.
Land values have also increased significantly throughout 2019, especially industrial areas within proximity of major road linkages.
The valuers said, "as at June 2019, industrial rents in the west were ranging from $75 to $80 per square metre, with rents being slightly higher in the southeast at $85 to $95 per square metre."
"Ongoing industrial development should ease supply issues in the near future, however, demand is set to remain strong in the west with continuing demand from e-commerce and logistics companies that require a location within proximity of the CBD and major transport linkages."
There is still some downward pressure on yields due to the low interest rate environment in which investors are seeking opportunities to acquire industrial assets to enhance their portfolios," they concluded.
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Melbourne Industrial property yields sit at 30 year lows: HTW Industrial

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The industrial sector continues to be the most buoyant of the three main commercial property classes, driven primarily by activity surrounding the port of Port Kembla, a profitable BlueScope steelworks, mining activity which has rebounded over more recent times and a strong Sydney industrial market, according to the latest report from Herron Todd White
The property valuation firm found, owner-occupiers and private investors are active while there is also an increased appetite for higher valued assets as illustrated by the June 2019 sale of 1 Darcey Road, Port Kembla to an owneroccupier for $8.6 million plus GST, reflecting rates of $965 per square metre of lettable area and $345 per square metre of improved land area.
Investment sales have been scarce due to the lack of properties available.
Analysed market yields are hovering between six and seven per cent and even lower for sub-$1.5 million properties in industrial precincts near the Wollongong CBD.
The valuers added, "agents are reporting some upward pressure on rents due to limited stock with gross face rents typically ranging from $100 to $150 per square metre and even higher for smaller modern style warehouses."
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Wollongong industrial market remains the most bouyant: HTW Industrial

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There have been no sales of larger industrial sites of any note in the area in recent months, according to the latest report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
The report found that given this, they took look at the sale of a large parcel of industrial land located close to the port and CBD.
The property, known as 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill is a 3.45 hectare parcel of remediated industrial land. The property is located at the corner of a major industrial intersection and has a frontage of almost 500 metres to the Industrial Highway.
The property was sold in April 2019 for an undisclosed sum.
The HTW valuers said, "we note that there is currently a DA with council for a service station which will take up approximately 6,000 square metres at the Elizabeth Street elevation. For the remaining parcel, the initial plan is for a multi-unit retail warehouse development."
"The proposed development will comprise three lots with up to 17 units ranging from 110 to 800 square metres approximately. The development also includes significant common area parking and a car wash facility. This project will be an industrial retail park and will be the only development of its type this close to the CBD," they added.
It’s likely that these units will attract strong demand from a variety of industrial retailers as well as general warehouse users.
Proximity to the CBD and Newcastle Port as well as having direct access to the Industrial Highway, which essentially links the CBD to the Pacific Highway, will be attractive features to tenants.
The report authors also said, "with the continuing development of the Honeysuckle precinct as well as new residential developments in Wickham and limited bulky goods retailers nearby, this creates a good opportunity for a range of tenants."
"The effect on rents that this development will have is difficult to ascertain until the mix of tenants is more obvious, however the proximity to the CBD and services would indicate a medium to high level of demand, and we would expect lease terms of three years and above as tenants look to secure longer term tenancies," they concluded.
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Newcastle industrial market sees no large scale sales: HTW Industrial

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The Sydney metropolitan industrial market remains an attractive home for capital with investors chasing yields and potential for capital growth, according to the latest report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
The property valuation firm found, the effects of this current demand are partly driven by a lack of available supply. Demand remains strong across most sectors of the market, from entry level to large scale assets.
In the second quarter of 2019, approximately 70,000 square metres of industrial supply was added which is 46 per cent below the approximate 130,000 square metres added in the same quarter of 2018.
Industrial land values have grown at a reported 14 per cent annually over the past five years.
The HTW valuers said, "indeed, the New South Wales Valuer General has recently undertaken land valuations across the state that resulted in significant growth in industrial land values, with industrial land showing the strongest overall increase amongst all uses. The average industrial statutory land value increased by 17.5 per cent."
"Notable local government areas that have seen increasing land values include Cumberland and Blacktown."
"The lack of land supply and increased demand for smaller assets has led to the development of a number of multi-unit strata developments, including Primewest’s estate project, Interlink Strathfield at Enfield and a three level, multi-storey, 44 industrial unit plus 90 storage unit development at Revesby, known as The Mavis Quad in Sydney’s South."
"The upshot of the lack of supply and rising values is a further tightening of yields which we expect to be at or close to the firm end of the current cycle, with entry level stock often sitting at sub five per cent, particularly with respect to owner-occupier markets where owners place less reliance on yields and cash flow as properties are purchased for their own usage," they added.
As a result, the achieved market yields for properties sold with vacant possession tend to be lower than those associated with investment sales.
Large format industrial yields are currently sitting in the general range of six to seven per cent.
The valiers stated, another factor that has contributed to growth in the Sydney industrial market is the ongoing upgrades to transport networks that will serve to better connect industrial precincts across Sydney, particularly with respect to western Sydney.
Current projects include WestConnex, Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys Creek, Pacific Highway upgrade, NorthConnex and the Northern Road upgrade.
A further $50 billion has been committed to various future projects, HTW noted.
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Sydney industrial land values see 15% growth in 5 years: HTW Industrial

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The industrial market is starting to show early signs of recovery in some sectors, however it is not yet sufficiently widespread to call the overall market as being at the start of recovery, according to the latest report from Herron Todd White.
They found that to date in 2019, the biggest settled industrial sale to have occurred was for a large industrial complex on a 1.34 hectare site occupied by two tenancies.
The sale price of $3.3 million reflected a yield of just over nine per cent with a WALE of 2.01 years.
The report noted, "there continues to be interest in manufacturing and heavy industry big asset property with strong lease fundamentals."
"several transactions occurred during 2018 reflecting yields between eight and 9.6 per cent."
"There are a number of big asset properties currently on the market priced between $7 million and $10 million."
"We have also seen a good number of industrial land sales during 2019 on a range of lot sizes from 2,200 square metres to over one hectare."
"A number of these have occurred in the Northern Link industrial estate, which are likely to be developed for distribution and service industry users," they report concluded.
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Townsville industrial sector shows early signs of recovery: HTW Industrial

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There have been numerous major shifts in Australia's industrial property markets in the past month, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White's (HTW) latest industrial property clock.
Five industrial markets joined Coffs Harbour at the peak of market position on the HTW property clock, including Melbourne and the Gold Coast.
There was also movement in the approaching peak of market category as Brisbane, Geelong and Illawarra joined Sydney and the Sunshine Coast among others.
As a result of the past month six of the eight capital cities hold a positive position in their industrial property market.
Hobart and Echuca held steady in the rising market position while numerous area's including Canberra, Adelaide, Ipswich and Mildura moved into the start of recovery slot.
They joined Horsham and Mackay.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/11/HTW%20Industrial%20Clock%20OCT%202019.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/11/HTW%20Industrial%20Clock%20OCT%202019.JPG" alt="">
The Central Coast remained in the starting to decline position on the HTW Industrial Property Clock this month.
Newcastle and Orange have now been identified as declining markets, while Gladstone,Toowoomba and South West WA slid into the approaching bottom of market slot.
Darwin and Perth joined Cairns, Rockhampton and Townsville at the bottom of the market.
In their <a href="https://www.htw.com.au/month-in-review/" target="_blank">latest report</a>, HTW valuers said: "While industrial property is often seen as the gateway to commercial investing, it’s still a sector filled with major sales and leasing transactions that help drive and direct the market."
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Melbourne and Gold Coast industrial property markets peaking: HTW Industrial Clock

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Perth’s industrial market continues to improve with record low yields and an annual vacancy fall of almost 5%, according to Knight Frank’s latest research report. 
The found however that there is still inconsistency across locations, product styles and end-users making some market sectors tough going.
The latest Perth Industrial Market Overview shows vacancy has reduced 4.7% year on year for 2018/19, but while the news is good for suburbs like Canning Vale, Bibra Lake and Wangara, established eastern precincts like Kewdale and Welshpool are no longer enjoying the same success due to their older stock.  
Modern developments constructed by private investors in estates like Canning Vale and Bibra Lake are now mostly full and placing upwards pressure on rents for other new facilities brought to the market.  
According to Knight Frank Industrial Sales &amp; Leasing Director, Geoff Thomson, other areas showing improvement in rental rates are those with recent infill subdivisions, where the delivery of new lots led to speculatively constructed buildings. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%201.png" alt="">
He said this activity had been seen mainly in core industrial precincts, but was also having a flow on effect across other sections the market. 
“The resurgent resource sector in WA is undoubtedly leading the recovery in the industrial property market, but at this stage it is still very resource focussed,” Mr Thomson said.  
“The demand for workshops with crane capacity and hardstand continues in the eastern and southern precincts. 
“While there has been an increase in both sales and leasing activity over the last 12 months, it is very much focussed on new stock, particularly in the Wangara/Gangara, Bassendean and Canning Vale areas. 
“Speculative developments in these areas have predominantly leased in the short term and have outperformed the more established areas who are offering older style facilities.” 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%202.jpg" alt="">
Mr Thomson said investment demand from both local and east coast based investors had driven yields to record lows, but a lack of suitable investment opportunities meant there was relatively little sales activity.  
Knight Frank Research Analyst Nicholas Locke said vacancy data as at July 2019 revealed total available space of approximately 622,000 sqm in buildings larger than 2000 square metres. - an impressive quarterly decline of 2.9%.  
However he highlighted the volatility in the market that had seen alternating quarterly increases and decreases leading to an overall, but unsteady improvement.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/4/perth%20industrial%203.jpg" alt="">
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Perth industrial market continues to improve with record low yields: Knight Frank 

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The Greater Brisbane industrial market has performed strongly over the last 12 months with prime rents increasing by more than 5%, land rates up by as much as 21%, and yields continuing to tighten, according to independent valuer and advisor m3property’s latest industrial report. 
The Winter 2019 report found supply constraints and strong owner-occupier and design and construct activity, especially in the e-commerce logistics area, had driven land (2000 square metre to 5000 square metre) rates across Greater Brisbane up by as much as 46% over the past three years. 
It found that investment sales, currently at circa $540 million for the first six months of the year, were well-placed to surpass what had been a big year in 2018 with circa $970 million of industrial assets transacted.  
Director of Research (Qld), Casey Robinson, said population growth, e-commerce and infrastructure projects had been key market drivers with the latter potentially playing an even more significant role as the State and Federal Governments sought to fast track some projects. 
“Brisbane’s industrial sector is experiencing boom like conditions and all indications are that the market will continue to perform strongly over the next 12 months as population growth and infrastructure projects drive even greater demand for new buildings,’’ Robinson said. 
“There were 1092 industrial buildings approved in Queensland in the year to May which is up 7.3% year on year. 
“Food manufacturers, transport/logistics operators and consumer product operators, in particular, will be behind a considerable increase in supply completions over the remainder of 2019 with most of it in the Western and M1 Corridors.’’
Robinson said an estimated 300,000 square metres of new supply was mostly pre-committed including new buildings for Coles (66,000 square metres), Australia Post (49,000 square metres) and Rheinmetall (42,000 square metres), all of which are located in the Western Corridor.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/19/brisbane%20industrial%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/19/brisbane%20industrial%201.jpg" alt="">
Low yields here to stay 
Senior Valuer at m3property (Qld) Cameron Hicks said while purchaser demand continued to outweigh investment supply, downward pressure on yields would remain. 
“Demand for industrial assets has been very strong and with population growth and the mooted fast tracking of infrastructure projects, such as the strategically important inland freight rail project, continuing to drive tenant demand, the industrial investment market looks set to maintain its current trajectory,’’ Hicks said.
“That said, with the limited supply of modern buildings in the most sought after precincts, yields are likely to continue to tighten, but we should see some stabilisation towards the end of the year and into 2020.’’
He said the limited supply of land in those same precincts, especially the Australia TradeCoast both north and south of the Brisbane River, along with the trend to modern, efficient premises, would also drive further increases in land values.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/19/brisbane%20industrial%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/19/brisbane%20industrial%202.jpg" alt="">
Hicks said while prime rents were expected to continue to rise, the extent of any rental growth would depend on the ability of tenants to absorb it. 
“Further real rental growth will be tested in cases where recent increases in taxable land values are passed onto tenants, and that seems likely in the majority of cases. This could negatively affect the potential for further real rental growth in the near term,’’ Hicks said. 
Hicks said the importance of the circa $10 billion Melbourne to Brisbane inland freight rail project had been underscored by recent acquisitions along the route including Garda Capital’s purchase of four properties - three of them adjoining the Acacia Ride rail yards - and a prominent Sydney based investor’s acquisition of two large properties also with rail access.  
“The inland freight rail project has already had an impact on the market and will undoubtedly continue to be a catalyst for growth with the potential to impact the entire Brisbane industrial market, especially if the line is extended beyond the Acacia Ridge terminal to the Port of Brisbane. Such an extension would result in improved connection to the Western Corridor and Toowoomba,’’ Hicks said.
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