Immigration

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<p>Annual net permanent and long term arrivals into Australia increased marginally in September to +267,500, some way up from the nadir of +262,800 in June. </p>
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<br><div>A significant driver of the rebound has been permanent settlers from Asia, of which there were 74,300 over the year to September, or 56.6 per cent of the total. </div>
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<div>By contrast, permanent settlers from New Zealand, and from Europe with their weakened currencies, continued to wane significantly.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">8 million &amp; beyond</span></strong></div>
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<div>The rebalancing quietly continues, with the number of short term departures ticking a notch lower for a third consecutive month in September, while short term arrivals smashed new records by a huge margin at 709,700 in the month (+11.7 per cent over the year).</div>
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<div>The chart therefore dovetails into a neat 'pincer' formation, as short term arrivals flew beyond 8 million for the first time, and the pace of increase approaching two decade highs!</div>
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<br><img src="/images/2016/11/15/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>No surprises for guessing that the increase was driven by the 1.58 million visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, which even now are still increasing at an annual pace of more than 20 per cent. Extraordinary!</div>
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<br><div>There has also been a huge lift in tourism from the United States, rising at an annual pace of around +18 percent. </div>
<br><div>While tourism is of course a major driver, the role of international education should not be underestimated with a record 506,200 education arrivals over the year to September (+12.7 percent).</div>
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<div>While there are inevitably some back-and-forth trips within these figures, as an indicator this chart matches up quite closely with enrolments data which have also suggested rapid growth in international student numbers, particularly from China and India.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Quite a solid set of numbers across the board here, with record short term arrivals and increasing immigration. </div>
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<div class="separator">Overall, this points to annual population growth tracking at around +350,000, but note how population growth is being driven less by 'permanent' arrivals and more by those arriving on other types of visa. </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration turns up a notch: Pete Wargent

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<div>There was a slight increase in the number of permanent settlers in Australia in the year to June, according to today's ABS figures. </div>
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<div>Most come from Asia, at 58.4 per cent in the year to June.</div>
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<div>Only 410 Brit settlers arrived in the month of June - crashing down from a record 2,560 in August 2007 to the lowest figure in the history of the data series. </div>
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<div>Not so many Kiwis are making the permanent journey across the Tasman either right now.</div>
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<div>With departures up over the past year, net permanent and long term immigration fell quite sharply to +262,800, the lowest figure since March 2007.</div>
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<div>It's another type of casualisation. </div>
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<div>Just as there are more part time jobs these days than there used to be, there are more part time migrants!<br><br>Despite the slowdown, as I explored here the headcount in Australia is probably up by more than 400,000 over the last year, including a surge in international students.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors</span></strong></p>
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<div>The lower dollar has resulted in an epic boom in short term arrivals, to yet another all-time high of 7.84 million.<br><br>And this figure is accelerating, up by 10 per cent over the past year. </div>
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<div>That said, the downward pressure impact of the lower dollar on short term departures (up to 9.67 million) may be beginning to fade. </div>
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<div>Most short term visitors come for holidays (3.91 million) or to visit friends and relatives (2.04 million).</div>
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<div>No surprises that June saw yet another monthly record in the number of visitors from China and Hong Kong,</div>
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<div>There has been a stunning 21 per cent increase in annual visitors from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, to a record 1.54 million (a rip-snorting 13-fold increase from 1991). </div>
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<p><br><span>Meanwhile 469,800 education arrivals in the year to June was 14 per cent higher than one year ago.</span><br><br><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Recall that the visa rules for international students were relaxed effective 1 July, so these figures will likely accelerate in the second half of 2016.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<div>As you were, really.</div>
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<div>Fewer long term and permanent migrants to Australia - particularly from the United Kingdom and New Zealand - but record short term arrivals and ever more Chinese visitors (with more to come when the changes to student visa rules kick in as the year progresses). </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record Chinese visitors again: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p class="post-title entry-title">Despite election talk of reducing the permanent intake into Australia, any prospective slowdown has been offset by an increase in temporary visa issuance. </p>
<div>The big drivers have been seen in student visas, bridging visas, and other visitors.</div>
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<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>In particular, student visas have exploded into Sydney and Melbourne.<br><br></p>
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<p class="post-body entry-content"><br>The total number of temporary visas hit a record high 2.3 million in Q3 2019.<br><br></p>
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<div>Temporary visas on issue have fairly consistently increased by about 100,000 per annum over the past six years, from 1.7 million in 2013 to a record high of 2.3 million as at September 2019. </div>
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<div class="separator">This means that population growth, when including temporary and permanent immigration, and the natural population increase (births minus deaths), is running at close to 400,000 per annum.</div>
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<div>I recently <a href="https://gonextlevelwealth.com.au/the-stars-never-align-perfectly-2-minute-video/" target="_blank">discussed here</a> that while population growth can drive housing prices, it isn't a precondition for rising prices. </div>
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<div><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></div>
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No slowdown in visa issuance: Pete Wargent

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<div>According to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) the significant investor visa (SIV) programme is designed to be:</div>
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<div><em>"...a pathway to provide for significant migrant investment into Australia under the Business Innovation and Investment visa programme".</em></div>
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<div>From the inception of the SIV programme in November 2012 until 30 June 2015 there had been some 2,573 applications lodged, but only 879 visas actually granted.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/08/30/SIV2.jpg" alt=""><br><span><br></span><span>There can necessarily be a lag between application lodgement and visas being granted.</span><br><span><br></span><span>The service standard is 6 to 9 months for the Business Innovation and Investment category.</span><br><div> </div>
<div>The latest available statistics from the DIBP showed that 495 of the outstanding applications lodged prior to 1 July 2015 have now been granted.</div>
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<div>A further 20 applications lodged after 1 July 2015 have also been granted in the financial year to 31 May 2016.</div>
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<div>This means that the May 2016 figures recorded a total of 515 SIVs issued for the 11 months for the financial year to date.</div>
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<div class="separator">The geographically segmented figures show that high net worth applicants are overwhelmingly focused on Melbourne, and then Sydney...with daylight third. </div>
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<div class="separator">This reflects that Melbourne and to a somewhat lesser extent Sydney have been the two key destinations and markets of interest for Chinese investors since around 2012.</div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report showed that real estate applications tripled in two years, driven overwhelmingly by a deluge of Chinese investors into Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland. </div>
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<div class="separator">The DIBP statistics for the top five source countries correspondingly show that more than 90 per cent of applicants for SIVs have also been Chinese. </div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>Since the commencement of the significant investor visa programme in 2012 there have now been a total of 1,397 SIVs granted, leading to just a shade under A$7 billion of investment in complying assets.</div>
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<div>It's difficult to say what the expected take-up for the SIV ever really was, but fewer than 1,400 visas sounds suspiciously like a fizzer of an initiative to me (albeit the composition and destination of applicants says something of note about where capital invested in Australia is coming from and where it is headed to).</div>
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<div>Previously SIV investors were opting to drop money into passive investments such as qualifying government bonds and residential real estate schemes - not really what Australia needs more of, tbh! - which led to a much-needed reassessment of the requirements for complying investments.</div>
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<div>Unfortunately interest in SIVs has been dampened since, following consultation with stakeholders, the rules were amended to require a greater share of the $5 million required investment to hit up venture capital products (at least 10 per cent) and emerging companies (minimum 30 per cent), investments that are typically associated with a higher risk of loss, whether perceived or real.</div>
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<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Source: DIBP</em></span></div>
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<div>The most timely available statistics for expressions of interest, invitations, and applications lodged suggest only a modest ongoing flow of interest in the SIV.</div>
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<div>Requiring wealthy Chinese with A$5 million to invest in venture capital projects and emerging companies is a fabulous idea...on paper.<br><br>In reality, however, this may be too ambitious and result in the killing off of SIV applications given that wealthy foreigners are unlikely to be familiar with the products and ventures in question, and therefore remain understandably reluctant to commit.</div>
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<div>It wouldn't be a surprise to see the rules amended again or relaxed to allow Chinese investors to provide project funding (not passive investment) for residential and commercial real estate developments, or for infrastructure projects.</div>
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<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Slow take up of Significant Investor Visa: Pete Wargent 

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<div>Despite evidence of a slowdown in immigration across many parts of Australia, we recently saw immigration accelerate to a 4-year high. </div>
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<div>The main population growth is being seen particularly in Melbourne, and in Sydney. </div>
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<div>And now it's getting faster. </div>
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<div>In February, permanent and long term arrivals soared to 103,570, the single biggest month on record. </div>
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<div>Meanwhile, long term departures fell to just 30,080, resulting a net intake of 73,490 in a single month, which puts the high volume of apartment construction in a different light.</div>
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<div>Of course, immigration can dry up or even turn negative when the outlook turns bad, but for now population growth is absolutely hammering along.</div>
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<div>It may seem odd that the monthly intake just hit a record high given weak employment figures.</div>
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<div>But remember that most immigrants head for New South Wales and Victoria where the economies have been performing relatively well, and jobs vacancies have been highest. </div>
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<div>Smoothing the permanent and long term immigration figures over the last year shows only an apparently small spike.</div>
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<div>However, caution should always be urged when using these numbers from month to month, not least because overwhelmingly the "long term" departures from Australia have historically returned to Australia within a year. </div>
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<div>There has been a very sharp drop in the number of permanent settlers from New Zealand and the United Kingdom in recent years. </div>
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<div>The big numbers are now hailing from China, and especially India, with a crunching 2,330 Indian settlers in February. </div>
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<p><br><span>The number of settlers from North Africa &amp; the Middle East has also comfortably more than doubled over the past year, reflecting a quietly increased humanitarian intake.</span></p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors, many from China</span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div>Perhaps the less well understood side of the equation is the huge number of short term arrivals to Australia, which tore to another record in February at more than 8.36 million. </div>
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<div>There has been a substantial uplift in the number of visitors from America and India, but the real driver has been another record surge in visitors from China. </div>
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<div>Lunar New Year straddled January and February this year, but looking at the original data over the three months to February an unprecedented 525,500 visitors from China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong graced Australian shores. </div>
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<div>Wow. </div>
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<div>Finally, I've been blathering on since 2015 about how international students will ultimately become the main driving force of migration into Australia. </div>
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<div>And check out the number of education arrivals in February at 123,900, by far the biggest month on record and more than 30 percent higher than a year ago. </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>International students largely hail from China, and many are expected in time to become Australian residents on sundry visa types. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div>Think I've posted more than enough here for a day or two, but my population growth versus dwelling completions models show that the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne...well, it basically isn't.</div>
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<div>In Sydney the story is a little different, in that supply has been playing catch up, but with a record number of dwellings under construction right across the state in 2016 the balance is swing sharply as 2017 rolls on. </div>
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<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The property effect of record busting immigration: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">
<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/record-high-immigration-to-sydney"></a><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration ramps up</span></strong> </h3>
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<div>The natural increase in Australia's population slowed a bit over the 2017 financial year as the number of deaths increased. </div>
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<div>However net immigration from overseas boomed by +27 per cent from +193,000 to 245,500, so you can comprehensively chalk that one up as a good call for this blog page (a year ago much of the idle talk of was population growth dropping because of a slowing economy). </div>
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<div>Australia is the planet's sixth largest country so this isn't such a big deal in itself, but the concentration of the immigration will raise a few eyebrows, as we shall see below. </div>
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<div>Over the financial year Australia's population grew by +388,100 or +1.6 per cent to 24.6 million by the end of June 2017. </div>
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<br>The Aussie population will pass the 25 million landmark in 2018.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The MEL-SYD magnet</span></strong><br><br><div>Net overseas migration into the two most populous states rose to the highest level on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales (+98,600) and Victoria (+86,800) accounted for the great bulk of immigration, with new arrivals overwhelmingly clustering into the capital cities of Greater Sydney and Melbourne respectively. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Immigration into Queensland is also picking up the pace, from a cyclical nadir of +18,300 over the year to September 2015 up to +31,100 in the 2017 financial year, with the trend pointing north as the economy improves. </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Just as significantly for Queensland, the state is now pulling Sydneysiders up and away from New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net interstate migration to the Sunshine State hit a decade-high +5,050 in the June quarter, taking the rolling annual total up to +17,400, surpassing Victoria to notch the biggest draw of any state. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is positive news for Brisbane, while unlike the most populous states Queensland has other worthy growth hubs, including Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>South Australia lost -5,900 residents interstate, and Western Australia lost -11,700, although in each case the bottom appears to be in. </div>
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<br><span>The big migratory trend in 2018 will clearly be from New South Wales up to Queensland. </span><br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Totting up the figures New South Wales (+121,800), Victoria (+144,400), and Queensland (+79,600) accounted for 89 per cent of population growth in the 2017 financial year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria's population growth rate of +2.3 per cent exceeds the rate at which appropriate new accommodation can realistically be built, let alone the availability of new land supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand population growth rate was considerably weaker than the national average in Western Australia (+21,400 or +0.8 per cent), South Australia (+10,500 or +0.6 per cent), Tasmania (+3,300 or +0.8 per cent), and the Northern Territory (+400 or +0.1 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Last, but certainly not least, the Australian Capital Territory added +6,800 or +1.7 per cent to its population, which will help to fill up all those new apartments. </div>
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<span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span>
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Record high immigration to Sydney and Melbourne: Pete Wargent 

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<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVER </strong></p>
<div><span>Permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia totalled 844,960 over the year to November, up 2 per cent from a year earlier, but just a notch lower over the past two months. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Net of departures, total arrivals were around 297,000, implying population growth of around 380,000 or 1½ per cent after accounting for natural population growth (births minus deaths). </span></div>
<div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span><strong>Asian century</strong><br><br><span>Tourism was still romping along until November, on the back of the Asian century.</span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
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<div><span>And short-term international education arrivals hit yet another record high at 619,100 over the year to November. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
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<div>Unfortunately, the raging bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in the tourism figures, blowing yet another hole into the ailing Aussie economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The growth in short-term arrivals over the year to November was driven by Victoria (up 6 per cent year-on-year) and Tasmania (up 8 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
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<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><span><span>There's been a fairly sharp drop in short-term arrivals from Hong Kong as the unrest and demonstrations continued. </span></span></div>
<div><span><span> </span></span></div>
<div><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/1/20/a5.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span>There's less tourism from Hong Kong, but plenty of capital is winding its way back to Australia.</span></div>
<p><em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></p>
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Bushfires will blast a $1 billion hole in tourism: Pete Wargent 

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In case it wasn't already obvious from reading this blog, I absolutely love analysing data flows, and I particularly love it when the numbers "just work"!</span></p>
<p>Immigration and population growth is a great case in point.</p>
<p>There was a huge surge in immigration and population growth to more than 450,000 per annum through the mining boom, which naturally slowed as the peak was passed and unemployment began to rise.</p>
<p>I've been hinting on this blog for a while that population growth probably bottomed out in 2015 and by now is probably rising again, though I haven't had any hard data to back that up just yet.</p>
<p>This is partly because a better performing Australian economy is now attracting more migrants - annual employment growth of about +2.3 per cent has been far outpacing population growth of about +1.3 per cent, helping the unemployment rate to cascade into a 28 month downtrend.</p>
<p>And secondly because, largely unrecognised by commentary, a relaxation of visa rules will see tens of thousands of international students acquire permanent residency through the "back door" of higher education.</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration rises again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a significant +14 per cent year-on-year jump in the number of permanent and long term arrivals in February to 91,590, while the number of permanent and long term departues wasn't much changed at +31,700, for a net monthly inflow of just under 60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wouldn't read too much into one month of figures, granted, but mapping the data on a rolling annual basis showed a rise in net immigration for the first time in two years. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>The share of settlers from Asia over the year to February continued to increase to its highest ever level at +58.1 per cent, largely at the expense of arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A4.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record short term arrivals help rebalancing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar is very slowly but surely helping the rebalancing of the economy, with a record 7.55 million short term arrivals in the year to February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is a wealthy nation when measured in per capita terms, yet provided the dollar stays low enough for long enough evenutally there could even come a time when short term arrivals match the number of our own overseas trips, as more Aussies opt to holiday at home, thereby boosting the economy. In the words of British Rail, "we're getting there".</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>The annual number of short term arrivals from China, Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan (1.44 million) is poised to eclipse those from New Zealand &amp; Oceania imminently (1.49 million). </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Education arrivals going vert!</span></strong><br><br><div>With the share of overseas born Aussies now at a 120 year high, more than 2 million persons per annum are venturing Down Under to visit friends and relatives, which in turn reinforces the strength in the number of visitors from Asia. </div>
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<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>The most significant demographic shift of all has been the near-exponential surge in education arrivals, which bolted to another new record high of 95,100 in February, taking the annual total past half a million for the first time on record. </div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div class="separator">This is extremely significant, as in the years ahead tens of thousands of these international students will become permanent residents, largely in the largest capital cities.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it has certainly been a while coming, but February saw the first rebound in immigration in a couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In truth, population growth never really slowed that much in the largest capital cities anyway - still chugging along at a thunderous 80,000 to 90,000 per annum - the slowdown was more of a resources and a regional thing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any case from observing the ABS data and from mapping out official government forecasts it looks as though population growth probably bottomed out at around 310,000 per annum, and is set to increase to about 340,000 in 2016, and to beyond 400,000 per annum before the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps just as relevantly, it is important to note that the population growth is becoming increasingly centralised and focussed on a handful of capital cities, a trend which will only accelerate thanks to Asian and international student migration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth to rebound in 2016: Pete Wargent

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<div>In Britain the topical political and media talk is of whether an "Australian-style" points based immigration system should be introduced, without any real clarity about what that would mean in practice.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Back Down Under it's often said that Australia's population growth must slow if the economy isn't creating enough jobs. This is essentially true for 457 visas, but does overlook the potential underlying demand for other visa classes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I previously looked at the newly relaxed international student visa rules which were made effective from 1 July, easing the rules for parents and guardians of primary school age students in Australia.<br><br>The recent election campaign also led to some potentially interesting shifts via proposed policies for...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Parent visa rules</span></span></strong></div>
<p><span>In 2016, the percentage of Australians born overseas hit its highest level in 120 years at a massive 28 per cent. </span></p>
<div>
<span>Immigration policies understandably prefer immigrants to be of the young, working (or creating jobs through business), and tax-paying demographic.</span><br><span><br></span><span>Thus over the</span><span> 2015/16 Migration Programme year, parent visa places were capped as follows:</span>
</div>
<ul>
<li><span><strong>1,500 places allocated to Parent (non-contributory) visas </strong></span></li>
<li>
<span><strong>7,175 places allocated to Contributory Parent visas</strong></span> </li>
</ul>
<div><span>This means that your best chance of getting a parent visa in the last financial year was likely <a href="https://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Visa/Fees" target="_blank">to pay</a> the prohibitive A$47,000 for a contributory visa - about A$100,000 for a couple! - while successful sponsorship for standard parent visas was extremely hard to come by. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>The unattractive alternative for parents wanting to join their families in Australia was to come in on a one year visitor visa, then leave the country for six months on each occasion. It would be a sore test of anyone's resolve to repeat this process over any meaningful period of time! </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>With some 6.8 million Australians having been born overseas the potential demand for parent visas is massive and growing, particularly from China and India. </span><br><br><span>I wouldn't believe anything a politician told me these days, but Google trends activity shows that </span><span>there has been an explosion of interest in parent visas since the last full Census in 2011.</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
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<a href="/images/2016/09/06/PArents.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator">
<img src="/images/2016/09/06/PArents.jpg" alt=""> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
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<div>
<span>It's worth noting that previous rules weren't favourable to Chinese families, due to China's one child policy meaning that most parents naturally had only one child in Australia, which was an obvious mathematical hindrance in proving that the balance of your family lived here. </span><br><span><br></span><span>As at 30 June 2016 due to the caps there were 38,770 persons in the queue for standard parent visas (up 59 percent from last year), and another 5,160 persons for aged parent visas (up 28 percent). </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/09/06/Parent.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<p> </p>
<div>With standard parent visas presently capped at 1,500 per year, a queue of this size at 30 June equated to a ridiculous 25.8 year average wait time for an application to be processed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Election pledges</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>During a keenly contested election campaign the Australian Labor Party (ALP) announced plans to extend visitor visas to parents out to a far more palatable three years - with parents only being required to leave the country for four weeks at the end of each visa term and paying a $5,000 bond to ensure cover for medical and social services.<br><br>Surely a potential vote-winner for the ALP in the rapidly growing migrant communities, particularly in an era where so many young families also strive to be dual-income households. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As tends to be the way of these things, the Coalition's knee-jerk response was to announce a new parent visa plan itself, especially aimed at Chinese and Indian visitors (provided that new arrivals pay for health insurance and don't rely on the welfare state for health care, shamelessly piggybacking from the ALP proposals!) and allowing for continuous <strong>five year</strong> visitor visas. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that the number of overseas born Aussies is soon to pass 7 million, such a policy could potentially lead to hundreds of thousands of applicants for visitor visas from parents sponsored by Australian citizens, largely from ageing, non-English speakers hailing from Asia (which is not really the ideal target demographic for policy makers).<br><br>For this reason the Coalition's proposed policy denotes that parents of Australian citizens and permanent residents who have lodged a permanent parental visa application "may" be issued a five year visa "on a case-by-case basis". </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, this is an 'out'. Minister Dutton has the discretion to limit the number of visas issued and retains the right for policy to change course henceforth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>At this juncture there appears to be very little clarity surrounding what will happen with respect to parent visas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The Coalition probably doesn't know the answer itself, election pledges doubtless being dreamed up on the hoof in response to the ALP's evidently popular proposal. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A point here relevant to the property markets is that if Australia does end up with an oversupply of thousands of apartments as many have forecast, there are levers that can be pulled to loosen immigration policies.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, a sceptic would say that if there's a policy that's always guaranteed to garner support from governing parties of either persuasion, it's one aimed at propping up ailing capital city housing markets. </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Immigration levers and the apartment oversupply scenario: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>There’s no escaping the monumental consequences we’ve experienced throughout COVID-19. From the devastating impacts on our health, lifestyle, employment, to the border closures preventing us from seeing loved ones.</p>
<p>The current global health crisis is a leveller and does not discriminate, impacting every single one of us. The immediate dialogue around international border closures is the lack of overseas travel, but it’s time to look at what the impact of reduced immigration will have on our housing market, and more specifically, on property investment. 2020 has been full of uncertainty and property investors have every right to be on the edge of their seats, yet the Australian housing market has proven to be remarkably resilient, particularly in the last 12 months.</p>
<p>Whilst immigration is stagnant and vacancies have slightly increased, we are now seeing an unanticipated rise in interstate migration and the emergence of a new trend – the return of the Aussie expat. The return home has already begun for many of the 1,000,000 Australians who live and work overseas, with hundreds flying home each week. Returning expats can now return home even sooner under the Government’s expanding quarantine processing in Darwin, set to process around 1,000 expats a month.</p>
<p>Over 480,000 Australians have already returned home in the last year - majority due to the global pandemic - and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has revealed that there are over 36,000 Australian residents who have registered interest in coming home, with more than 27,000 in the process of returning. This is an unprecedented spike in returning expats. According to the ABS, the 2018- 2019 financial year saw Australia's population increase by 239,600 people due to net overseas migration. The amount of returning expats has already exceeded this.</p>
<p>In addition, experts predict that millions of prospective future Aussies are ‘waiting in the wings’ to relocate here as soon as physically possible - seeking to flee countries that are currently home to escalating health or political risks such as USA, UK, Europe, Hong Kong and China.</p>
<p>As a result of these factors, demographic experts forecast we are due for a ‘migration tsunami’ which will lead to extremely high housing demand. With international borders expected to reopen in late 2021, Australia will see significantly less immigration resulting in slower population growth.</p>
<p>The Australian Government’s recent Federal Budget declares that Australia’s overall population growth is expected to grow 0.2 per cent in 2020-21 and 0.4 per cent in 2021-22, yet with this increase in returning residents and the many migrants who are looking to move to Australia imminently, by 2022 there will likely be an overall net increase in residents settling in Australia.</p>
<p>The return of expats combined with the postponements by those who had planned to leave Australia to work overseas has already kept vacancy rates low.</p>
<p>CoreLogic data from October reveals vacancy rates have dropped in every capital city in Australia, apart from Melbourne in the past month. As more expats looking for somewhere to live after they make it out of hotel quarantine, there is no doubt there will be further pressure on the market - and to further support our housing market, we can look no further than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November announcement.</p>
<p>The RBA’s recent slashing of the official cash rate from 0.25 to 0.1 per cent, a historical low, is a welcomed incentive for investors. We can expect to see banks pass this cut directly on to borrowers so investors can breathe a collective sigh of relief with the RBA promising not to hike rates for “at least” three years.</p>
<p>The Commonwealth Bank has also announced its lowest ever fixed rate home loan of 1.99 per cent. Australia’s biggest lender is now offering a new four-year fixed rate for owner occupiers paying principal and interest. This is great news for investors as this will lower the structure of interest rates and provide confidence that Australians can borrow over the long term at historically low rates.</p>
<p>The good news continues for investors with the most recent CoreLogic dataset revealing that house prices across Australia have finally risen overall for the first time since the start of the pandemic, with the national housing market experiencing a 0.4 per cent rise in October.</p>
<p>While we are not out of the woods yet, there is every reason to feel confident about the outlook for property investment. The economic picture isn’t as bleak as initially predicted and we can take comfort in the fact that as our expats return home (and why the bloody hell wouldn’t they?!), demand for residential property will continue to grow.</p>
<p>Investors need to be ready for a ‘migration tsunami’ and snap up solid investment properties while they can. With the on-going changes that we’ve experienced this year, it is essential to do your homework and seek expert advice and property management to ensure you make smart and rewarding financial choices in 2021. </p>
<p><strong>JAMES NIHILL </strong><em>is the </em><em>Managing Director at Patrick Leo </em></p>
<p>AUSTRALIA’S FORECAST… SUNNY WITH THE CHANCE OF A MIGRATION TSUNAMI: YOURGUIDE TO NAVIGATING THE RETURN OF THE EXPATBy James Nihill, Managing Director – Patrick LeoThere’s no escaping the monumental consequences we’ve experiencedthroughout COVID-19. From the devastating impacts on our health, lifestyle,employment, to the border closures preventing us from seeing loved ones. Thecurrent global health crisis is a leveller and does not discriminate, impacting everysingle one of us.The immediate dialogue around international border closures is the lack of overseastravel, but it’s time to look at what the impact of reduced immigration will have onour housing market, and more specifically, on property investment.2020 has been full of uncertainty and property investors have every right to be onthe edge of their seats, yet the Australian housing market has proven to beremarkably resilient, particularly in the last 12 months. Whilst immigration is stagnantand vacancies have slightly increased, we are now seeing an unanticipated rise ininterstate migration and the emergence of a new trend – the return of the Aussieexpat.The return home has already begun for many of the 1,000,000 Australians who liveand work overseas, with hundreds flying home each week. Returning expats cannow return home even sooner under the Government’s expanding quarantineprocessing in Darwin, set to process around 1,000 expats a month1.Over 480,000 Australians have already returned home in the last year2- majority dueto the global pandemic - and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade hasrevealed that there are over 36,000 Australian residents who have registered interestin coming home, with more than 27,000 in the process of returning.This is an unprecedented spike in returning expats. According to the ABS, the 2018-2019 financial year saw Australia's population increase by 239,600 people due to netoverseas migration. The amount of returning expats has already exceeded this.In addition, experts predict that millions of prospective future Aussies are ‘waiting inthe wings’ to relocate here as soon as physically possible - seeking to flee countriesthat are currently home to escalating health or political risks such as USA, UK, Europe,Hong Kong and China.</p>
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