Housing Undersupply

nconisbee-4KnoX9XmtH

Housing undersupply not only in Australia but globally: Nerida Conisbee

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The announcement by the NSW Department of Planning that a record 42,529 housing completions occurred in Sydney in the year up to June 2018 demonstrates the success of earlier policies but approvals are dropping fast.
The current record housing completions in Sydney of 42,529 over the year to June 2018 are a result of the record approval of nearly 60,000 homes in the year to September 2016. 
Unfortunately approvals in Sydney have now dropped to 52,277 in the year to June 2018 and this will flow on to reduced housing completions in the coming year.
The 42,529 completions is well above the average required of 36,250 a year required across 20 years and this high supply number has helped reduce the cost of new homes.
Our concern is that a number of policy settings from the three levels of government are now slowing down housing approvals.
The tightening of bank lending to house purchasers is reducing the number of buyers, the levies on foreign investors has reduced these purchasers and recent back-downs on planning policies for increased densities in key precincts in Sydney has undermined confidence in the housing development industry.
The Urban Taskforce developer members have been working very hard over recent years to follow the NSW Government’s lead in where to build new housing but in a pre-election environment the government has put the brakes on planning in these areas and this will lead to a big drop in housing supply in one to two years-time.
The Urban Taskforce encourages the NSW Government to get behind the need to plan for and support a consistent flow of new houses across Sydney so that the large number of jobs involved in housing are sustained.
Chris Johnson is the Urban Taskforce CEO
</body></html>

cjohnson-8xfqfuuCSq

NSW future housing supply under threat despite record completions

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s economy is showing considerable resilience in the face of falling commodity prices and China’s slowdown.
Growth is rebalancing away from mining to housing and services, supported by low interest rates and a lower AUD.
Loose financial conditions are expected to support further solid, albeit below average, growth of 2.6% in 2016, while low inflation leaves room for another RBA cut, now expected in 2Q.
More rebalancing ahead 
 Commodity prices have fallen to a 12-year low, China’s growth has slowed, global trade has been anaemic and yet, Australia’s domestic activity indicators have been lifting. Local jobs growth has picked up, business conditions have been at seven-year highs and consumer sentiment has been rising. Why?  The answer is: Australia’s growth is rebalancing. How is this possible? Well, first, the mining sector is only 10% of the economy, so its influence is not as pervasive as is often thought. Second, Australia is the lowest cost producer of iron ore and has long-term contracts to sell LNG, so export volumes are still ramping up. 
Third, when the mining boom was strong, much of the rest of the economy was held back by tight financial conditions, which meant that there has been significant scope for a pick-up in the non-mining sectors in response to loosened financial conditions: low interest rates have driven a housing boom and the lower AUD has lifted net services exports.  2016 is set to see a continuation of this rebalancing theme. Mining investment is set to fall again, while resources export volumes rise further, driven by new LNG projects ramping up production. The housing boom, which had been the first stage of the rebalancing act, appears to be cooling, but the services sectors have now taken the ‘growth baton’ and are driving job creation. Australia’s trade connections to Asia are set to continue to broaden beyond resources, to services and agricultural products.  Low inflation means the RBA has scope to cut further, although financial stability concerns are making it reluctant. Our central view has another cut, now in 2Q (previously 1Q). However, a tangible fall in the AUD could obviate the need for it. We believe policymakers should be focused on structural and budgetary reform in the lead up to this year’s Federal election (likely to be in September or October). The clearest downside risk is a sharp downturn in China. However, this would now probably need to have a significant impact on Chinese households, and their willingness to buy Australian services and assets, to see a significant local downturn. 
 
Housing boom is cooling, but a soft landing is expected
 
Following rapid growth in Sydney and Melbourne housing prices, which are up 46% and 32%, respectively, over the past four years, there are now some signs that these housing markets are cooling (Chart 13 and 14). We expect national housing price growth to slow to 3-4% in 2016, down from 10% in 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/01/20/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-20%20at%2010.44.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/20/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-20%20at%2010.44.42%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The slowdown is expected to be driven by tighter lending standards that have been imposed by the prudential regulator, recent mortgage rate increases by the major banks (in response to higher capital requirements), some reduction in housing affordability due to the recent ramp up in housing prices, and a ramp up in housing supply, due to the recent residential construction boom. 
The residential construction ramp up has helped to reduce a previously accumulated housing undersupply (Chart 15). Our estimates suggest the national market will still have an undersupply until 2017, although this aggregate hides pockets of potential oversupply in areas such as the Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets. 
<a href="/images/2016/01/20/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-20%20at%2010.45.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/20/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-20%20at%2010.45.45%20AM.png" alt="">
The slowdown in housing price growth and construction means that these are expected to contribute less to GDP growth in 2016, although we still expect a positive contribution from construction (Chart 16). There is also likely to be a lagged wealth effect from the previous housing price gains that could support some spending (via reduced household savings).
Although we expect the housing boom to cool in 2016, we expect national housing prices and construction to maintain modest positive momentum, supporting GDP growth.
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">Paul Bloxham</a> is chief economist (Australia and New Zealand) for HSBC.
 
</body></html>

Housing Undersupply

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Housing Undersupply

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News