Housing Sentiment

As national house prices continue to climb, consumers are not convinced that now is a good time to buy property, according to new research by Finder, Australia&rsquo;s most visited comparison site. &nbsp;

Finder&rsquo;s Property Positivity Index shows that the proportion of Australians who think now is a &ldquo;good time to buy&rdquo; is at its lowest ebb since lockdowns started last year.

As of May 2021, the index is sitting at 49% &ndash; only a few points higher than the pessimistic low of 42% in April 2020.&nbsp;

In December 2020, a record-high number of people (67%) said it was a good time to buy, however this figure has since dropped by 18 points.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that Australians&rsquo; property optimism has yoyoed throughout the past 12 months.&nbsp;

&ldquo;As lockdowns rolled out across Australia and open house inspections declined, Finder&rsquo;s Property Positivity Index nosedived only to recover again as the housing market sprang back to life.&nbsp;

&ldquo;Both the rock-bottom cash rate and FOMO have turbo-charged prices but fears of a property bubble are making many Aussies pessimistic that now is the time to buy,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;

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Property positivity toward prices spikes

Despite fewer people thinking now is a good time to buy, approximately 74% feel that property prices in their area will continue to rise over the next 12 months &ndash; up from a low of 24% in April 2020.&nbsp;

When asked about whether prospective first-time buyers with a deposit saved may miss an affordability window if they do not purchase within the next year, Finder&rsquo;s RBA panelists were divided.&nbsp;

In total, 9 experts said they would miss out (64%), while the remaining 7 (36%) said they wouldn&rsquo;t.

Dale Gillham, stock market analyst from Wealth Within said buyers would not be missing a window.

&ldquo;This situation has been talked about since Adam was a boy and it will continue to be into the future. I have never seen a time when we thought property was cheap for anyone let alone first-time buyers,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;

Rebecca Cassells of Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said buyers may miss a window if they don&rsquo;t buy.

&ldquo;Increased house prices driven by significant stimulus and low interest rate environment has the potential to lock out future first home buyers by making it even harder to come up with the deposit needed to enter the market.&rdquo;

Cooke said that window of opportunity or not, there&rsquo;s been a significant turnaround in property price expectations over the past year.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The last 6 months resulted in the largest amount borrowed to buy housing in any 6-month period in Australian history. The property market really is surging back into life,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

Finder’s Property Positivity Index shows that the proportion of Australians who think now is a “good time to buy” is at its lowest ebb since lockdowns started last year.

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Consumers increasingly unconvinced to buy property: Finder Survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There has been a turnaround in housing sentiment post-election. 
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Source: CoreLogic
<div>There have been other factors, of course, including two rate cuts.</div>
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<div>The second rate cut was only delivered six weeks or so ago, and there can be a long lag effect - the full impacts many not be felt for up to 18 months</div>
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<div>In addition, there were very strong auction results reported for the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne by agents and media alike this weekend, especially for properties located within 15 minutes commute of the Central Business District. CoreLogic found that every single apartment in Sydney's city or inner south taken to auction this weekend sold under the hammer, which is remarkable. For freestanding inner-suburban houses, it was a bit of a frenzy. </div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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The post-election housing sentiment bounce: Pete Wargent

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the September quarter showed a modest improvement in sentiment across Australia’s property sectors, although it remains deep in negative territory as COVID-19 and the associated shutdown of economic activity cuts across the economy.
The impact of COVID-19 is immense. Nationwide, almost all respondents report being negatively hit.
Encouragingly, 60% of businesses expect the impact to improve over the coming quarter, however keep in mind that this survey closed on 1 July, before Melbourne’s shutdown was announced.
In the residential sector, overall sentiment remains negative across all states and territories.
Price expectations fell further into negative territory, while the employment outlook remains challenging. The outlook for construction and forward orders, however, are both now positive and improving, clearly helped by the HomeBuilder scheme.
In a special question on the Commonwealth Government’s HomeBuilder program, respondents within the residential sector were broadly positive about the scheme, with 60% reporting that it would have a positive impact on their business.
In commercial property, sentiment remains deeply negative across all sectors except industrial, where confidence is now back in positive territory. Sentiment in the office sector declined and was broadly flat in the tourism sector where confidence is the weakest.
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Coronavirus continues to weigh on property sentiment: ANZ

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Sydney’s outlook on housing dipped further in May, despite the easing of pandemic restrictions, according to the UDIA Urbis Home Purchaser Sentiment Survey.
The poll - carried out between May 7 and 12 - found that the proportion of residents feeling ‘very positive’ about the property market dropped six percentage points (to 21 per cent) compared with this time last year.
Overall, homeowners had a more pessimistic outlook than renters.
The proportion of homeowners who were positive about the market fell seven percentage points to 54 per cent over the year.
This was compared with just a two-percentage point drop among renters (down to 50%).
"The report shows a downward shift in sentiment since the last survey, with increased pessimism around purchasing property in the next 12 months," associate director of Urbis Kylie Newcombe said.
"The softening in sentiment was, however, relatively moderate, suggesting cautious optimism by prospective purchasers in the medium-term fundamentals of the Sydney property market.
Almost half of all Sydney residents also believe that house prices will drop in the next six months – more than double the number from a year ago.
Just over one in four believe prices will drop over the next 12 months – a seven percentage points rise compared with a year ago.
The city, and Sydney's east, saw the residents who were the most negative about the prospect of home prices, with 55 per cent expecting prices to drop over the next six months.
More than two-thirds said they were unlikely to buy a property in the next 12 months – a seven percentage points increase from July last year.
And 72 per cent said they were unlikely to buy in the next six months.
In more bad news for apartment developers, 61 per cent said they preferred free-standing houses compared with units or apartments.
However, the report noted that "it is not possible to conclude a relationship between COVID-19 and preferences.”
There was also a strong support for stamp duty reform as a tool to improve confidence among home owners and some renters.
Fifty-four per cent of renters said policies targeting first home buyers would have a positive effect on their confidence.
Given a choice, Sydney residents would like to live in Parramatta, Castle Hill, Chatswood, Blacktown and Balmain.
The poll surveyed 531 Sydney residents.
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Sydney housing sentiment slumps further in May: UDIA Urbis Home Purchaser Sentiment Survey

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In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak and the associated shutdown of economic activity, sentiment towards residential property and all sectors of commercial property declined sharply, according to the ANZ.
In their June Quarter ANZ property council survey in answer to new questions, specially set for this survey, they found that expectations of a negative impact from the coronavirus were broadly based and similar across the states. Nationwide, virtually all respondents expect to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, with all states recording similar responses.
10% of businesses report that the impact is already so serious it is affecting their viability. A large majority of firms reported that the virus was already impacting current construction schedules. Firms expect the impact of the virus to be largest on the tourism sector. 
In the residential sector, price expectations have turned around sharply and a net 36% of respondents now expect house prices to decline over the next year.
Employment in the sector is also expected to decline, but the outlook for construction activity is more balanced. The outlook for the residential sector is negative across all states and territories. 
In commercial property, across all sectors and states sentiment declined sharply. Confidence in the tourism and retail sectors was the weakest, but sentiment also declined sharply in the office and industrial sectors.
ANZ Senior Economist Felicity Emmett said, "after recovering through much of 2019, property sentiment has taken a hit from the coronavirus and the shutdown measures put in place by the federal and state governments to contain it."
"Just as the lockdown measures have been broadly-based, the deterioration in sentiment has been equally widespread. Sentiment across the residential, office, industrial, retail and tourism sectors have all been sharply impacted."
"Not surprisingly, the tourism sector has been the hardest hit."
"Across all sectors, price expectations have turned around sharply, employment prospects have deteriorated and the construction outlook has turned down."
"The construction sector is not subject to a shut-down at present, but the downturn in the outlook is concerning, and suggests that the impact of the virus may be more long lasting on the property sector. With long lags associated with construction approvals, commencements and completions, a quick rebound once the lockdown is eased seems unlikely"
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Coronavirus infecting property sentiment: ANZ

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The NAB Residential Property Index has ticked in to positive territory for the first time since mid-2018 as the rebound in the capital city housing markets continues to gather steam.
The Index, a measure of housing market sentiment based on the expectations of property professionals for both capital growth and rents, rose 26 points in the September quarter to an above average +18.
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The average survey expectation for national house prices for the next 12 months is positive for the first time since Q1 2018.
 “The results suggest the Australian housing market is on the way to recovery.” NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
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The average survey expectation for national house prices for the next 12 months is also positive for the first time since the first quarter of 2018, with prices expected to strengthen moving into 2021. 
Property professionals in all states except WA expect to see positive gains in the next year, with Victoria and NSW leading the way.
“This marks a sharp reversal from the previous survey where Victoria and NSW were expected to be the weakest states for price growth and the only states where prices were tipped to fall” Oster said.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/24/NAB%20residential%20index%20by%20state.jpg" alt="">
Sentiment improved sharply among property professionals in VIC, with the state index climbing steeply by 48 points to +40 to record the best result in the country by some margin.
Only Western Australia saw its sentiment decline.
Following the resurgence in house values, NAB have amended their forecasts for 2020, now predicting <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/105650-sydney-and-melbourne-house-values-to-rise-over-seven-percent-in-2020-nab" target="_blank">7.4 per cent gains in both Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
They <a href="http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/105652-melbourne-apartments-to-outperform-sydney-in-2020-nab" target="_blank">expect Melbourne to outdo Sydney in the apartment ranks</a>, with 7.4 per cent gains in the unit market compared to Sydney's 4.3 per cent.
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NAB residential property index ticks into positive for first time since mid-2018

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Housing-related sentiment has improved but part of the gain looks to be based on an expected further lowering in rates.
Our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/WestpacHousingPulseAugust2019.pdf" target="_blank">latest Housing Pulse report</a> finds sentiment-based measures giving the most positive signal in over five years. However, a sustained lift in demand has yet to be confirmed and there remain important caveats. In particular much of the lift looks to be based on an expected further improvement in affordability that may not materialise if prices start rising again or if the RBA disappoints on expected rate cuts.
Interest rate expectations have seen a big shift over the last year. Back in Aug 2018 most consumers expected rates to be higher by now. That hawkishness evaporated in Feb following a clear signal from the RBA that rates were more likely to fall than rise. The Bank followed up with two 25bp cuts in June and July, indicating that it is prepared to cut further “if needed”. Accordingly, most consumers now expect rates to be the same or lower in a year’s time with markets and economists expecting rates to be about 50bps lower.
Our August update of an additional question on consumer expectations for mortgage rates. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 9.8 from 38.7 in Feb, 50.4 in Aug last year and a peak of 68.2 in Aug 2017. The latest read is a touch below the 9.9 in Aug 2016 and the least hawkish/most dovish since late 2011.
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The history of this question, which has been run since 2010, shows a clear ‘upward bias’. Adjusting for this the latest reading looks to be consistent with about a 45bp decline in rates over the next year. That would place the consumer reading as slightly less dovish than current market pricing which has 60bps in RBA cuts priced in by this time next year but more in line with that of economists. For the record, Westpac expects the RBA to cut rates by 50bps over the next year, with two moves likely coming in Oct and Feb (see <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/July/er20190724BullRBACashRate.pdf">here</a> for more).
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Housing sentiment at its most positive in over 5 years: Matthew Hassan

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Australians are feeling more optimistic about purchasing a home, according to new research from Westpac.
Just over half of all participants suggested that they felt more confident about the housing market than they did 12 months ago, while 53% stated they were eager to take advantage of record low interest rates.
Those who already owned at least one home were the most optimistic demographic, with almost three quarters (71%) feeling more confident about the market than last year, and two thirds (66%) believing now is a good time to purchase their next home.
The primary motivations for those signally an intention to invest in the current housing market were (1) low interest rates (20%), (2) falling house prices (18%), and (3) the desire to live in a new area (17%).
The study also indicates that Australians are significantly more likely to be looking to buy a new home to live in themselves (37%), particularly for the sake of upsizing (24%) – these figures have more than doubled since 2018.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
“Record low interest rates have created a positive environment for home owners to not only get ahead on their mortgage repayments, but to also purchase their next home,” said Will Ranken, the general manager of home ownership at Westpac.
The findings showed relief might be on the way with Australian home owners now 50% more likely to sell their home compared to last year, with one in ten (10%) intending to sell in the next 12 months.
“We’ve seen a recent rise in auction clearance rates, so it could be an opportune time for sellers to capitalise on growing demand, particularly in the lead up to spring; the time of year when house hunters tend to be the most active,” said Ranken.
A limitation of investment options was the primary concern of participants in the study, with almost one in five (18%) next home buyers feeling challenged by a lack of property supply listed on the market.
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Australians are feeling more optimistic about the housing market: Westpac

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the June quarter shows a further decline in sentiment in Australia’s property sector. 
Confidence has hit a new low and is now at the lowest level since the survey began in 2011.
Residential property continues to lead the fall in overall sentiment.
Nearly all the key residential indicators declined further in the June quarter, with sentiment, prices and construction all reaching fresh lows. 
"Importantly though, the outlook for credit availability improved, tentatively suggesting that the housing sector is reaching an inflexion point," it noted.
The largest decline in confidence came in New South Wales, which is consistent with the fact that Sydney has seen the most marked weakness in house prices.
 Not far behind was Victoria, while Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia saw more moderate declines. 
But ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented that the most important aspect of the latest ANZ-PCA property survey could be the improvement in the availability of finance.
"It was a modest improvement in this part of the survey in mid-2017 that signalled greater stability in the housing market later that year and in early 2018.
"Finance availability then deteriorated sharply, continuing to fall through the rest of 2018 and into 2019.
"We think this deterioration was the trigger for the renewed house price weakness in Sydney and Melbourne from that point.
"The turn in finance availability captured in this survey could signal a turn in the market.
"Certainly it suggests we may be past the worst of the downturn in building approvals.
"We need to be cautious, though, about the outlook."
He added finance is still difficult to get, and sentiment in the residential property space is very negative.
"This primarily reflects the price outlook, which has fallen further in New South Wales and Victoria.
"Sentiment does tend to lead rather than follow prices, however, certainly over the past few years.
"We think the continued downturn in price sentiment reflects recent developments rather than indicating a deterioration in the outlook.
"The shift in expectations with regard to interest rates may help the outlook.
"Still, we expect further declines in house prices this year."
Outside residential, sentiment is much better. It has, however, declined from its recent peak across most sectors. Sentiment in the retail sector is especiallysoft, which is not surprising.”
Sentiment declined in the commercial space as well, although it remains much more positive than is the case for residential. 
Declines in confidence were seen in all segments (retail, tourism, office) except industrial. 
It noted forward work schedules have declined, but remain elevated, reflecting the fact that the amount of work in the pipeline remains substantial but is past the peak. Consistent with the decline in the construction outlook, hiring intentions have also come down.
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