Housing Rents

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The data on rents published by Domain illustrates that this is a great time to be a landlord – in most locations across Australia. You might have a different view if you own an investment property in the inner-city areas of our biggest cities, but elsewhere we have a landlord’s market like never before.

Vacancy rates below 1% have become the norm in Australia. That’s a remarkable situation and it deserves repeating: vacancies under 1% are the norm.

Five of our capital cities – Perth, Adelaide, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin – have vacancy rates under 1%. Brisbane is only marginally higher. And many of our regional centres have vacancies closer to zero than to 1%.

You would be hard-pressed to find a significant regional city or town with a vacancy rate above 2%. I’ve been researching and writing about Australian real estate for almost 40 years and I’ve never seen a rental market situation like this.

Research entities confirm that many locations have the tightest rental markets ever recorded. Every day I’m having conversations with real estate professionals across the nation. And when the topic is the rental market, the story is always the same: when a dwelling becomes available for rental there are queues of people - 30, 40 or 50 applicants – competing for the property.

It’s common for prospective tenants to make offers well above the asking rent and/or to offer to pay six or 12 months in advance to beat the competition. That is why the Domain figures show rents rising sharply in locations across Australia, especially outside the big cities – despite pandemic-related restrictions from state governments.

Multiple regional centres in NSW, Queensland and Victoria have had rents growing10% or more, sometimes 15-20%, in the past year. Among the capital cities, there have been double- digit rises in Perth and Darwin – and significant increases also in Adelaide, Canberra and Brisbane. In Sydney, houses are up 5% although apartments have dropped.

There are many reasons why there is a dire shortage of rentals in most locations:

<ul>
<li> We haven’t been building sufficient new dwellings for the past three years or so.</li>
	<li> Vacancies are primarily an outcome of investor activity and investors have been sitting on the sidelines lately – owner-occupiers have been driving markets.</li>
	<li> The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, with large numbers of Australians leaving the big cities and moving to the fringes and to the regions, has further diminished the supply of rental properties.</li>
</ul>
This is a national crisis but it receives very little attention from media and even less from politicians. The various federal and state governments have been so busy dealing with the pandemic, they haven’t noticed the chronic shortage of properties and the dramatic impact of that on rentals.

One shudders to think what the situation would be if Labor had won the last Federal Election and scrapped negative gearing. Right now, we need the opposite kind of action – we need governments to provide direct incentives to Australians to become property investors and add to the rental pool. In the meantime, rents will keep going up. Propertyology’s head of research Simon Pressley is forecasting record increases and I think he’s right.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 

ryder@hotspotting.com.au
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terryryder

It's a great time to be an Australian landlord: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Rental yields across the combined capital cities have gradually trended lower over the past two decades and currently sit at record-low levels. 
The change in rental rates have also seen a slowdown in recent years which has culminated in no change in rents over the past year. This represents a historically weak market for rental growth. 
Looking at rental growth over the past decade, across the combined capital cities rental rates increased by 50.7 percent over the period, or 4.2 percent per annum. This is a lower level of increase than home values which have increased by 72.0 percent (5.6 percent per annum) over the same period. A split by property types, shows there hasn’t been a substantial difference in performance, with house rents increasing by 50.3 percent compared to a 53.7 percent rise in unit rents. 
By breaking out the results across the individual capital cities and looking at the total rental change over the past decade, these show that Sydney (+59.4 percent) and Perth (54.6 percent) have seen significantly greater increases in rents than all other capital cities. 
<a href="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.18.39%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.18.39%20PM.png" alt="" width="826" height="757">
Although rental growth has been strong in some cities, in most instances home value growth has outpaced rental growth over the past decade. The exceptions have been Hobart and Perth where rental increases have outstripped value growth, pushing yields higher over the decade, and Brisbane where value growth and rental growth have each been recorded at 44.0 percent over the decade.
The other side of the rental growth equation is of course gross rental yields which highlight the expected annual rental return on an investment property. There are a few points that should be highlighted, they are based on the home value so no consideration is given to borrowings nor are there allowances for costs. Furthermore, the calculation assumes that there is no vacancy, which in the current environment is becoming somewhat more difficult to achieve. 
Over the past 10 years there has been little overall change in gross rental yields across the capital cities. Although capital city rental yields are now at an historic low of 3.5 percent the shift from 4.0 percent 10 years ago has been relatively minimal. Perth and Hobart are the only cities in which yields are now higher than they were 10 years ago while in Brisbane they are unchanged over the period.
Melbourne and Darwin have seen the greatest softening in gross rental yields over the past decade. Melbourne, where gross yields are the lowest of any capital city, have slipped from 4.2 percent ten years ago to 2.9 percent currently. 
With rental rates falling and yields sitting at record low levels at a time when housing construction is at its highest level on record it is reasonable to expect that rents and yields will slip further over the coming years. 
Of course we have recently seen the Labor opposition propose changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount. Were policies such as these to be implemented it could change the situation for investors. Whereas over recent years their focus has clearly been on value growth, attention could begin to become more balanced where investors place a higher degree importance on the yield profile and potential for positive cash flow.
<a href="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.20.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-23%20at%204.20.11%20PM.png" alt="" width="823" height="377">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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