Housing Prices

The 2032 Brisbane Olympics will not only deliver an economic boost to trade and tourism but is set to have a big impact on the local property market, according to one economist.

PRD Research chief economist, Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, has predicted that Brisbane&rsquo;s median house price could increase to $1.7 million by 2023, 2.5 times its current median of $674,738.

The forecast by PRD Research was reached using historical data of house prices following two global events hosted in Brisbane, the World Expo in 1988 and the G20 Summit in 2014.

<img alt="" height="628" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/bide-21-longland-street-newstead-f94e8b1acc183d4e31ebc002ecefc8ef.png" width="1200" />

In the 11 years prior to Expo 88, the Brisbane LGA median house price grew by 278.8 per cent and prices in South Bank and its surrounding suburbs grew by an average 335.3 per cent.

In the year following, house prices grew by a further 29.7 per cent in Brisbane and 19.1 per cent in South Bank and nearby suburbs.

A similar trend unfolded when the city hosted the 2014 G20 Brisbane Summit with property prices surging 112 per cent in Brisbane and 116 per cent in South Bank in the decade before the event.

&ldquo;[H]osting both Expo 1988 and G20 Summit has served the Brisbane property market well,&rdquo; Dr Mardiasmo said.

Applying the same level of growth seen in these events, PRD Research predicts Brisbane&#39;s median house price to rise to $1.7 million by 2033, a year after the Olympics.

Dr Mardiasmo noted there were differences in the pace of property growth in past events, but even going at &ldquo;half-strength&rdquo;, the median house price would reach $1.2 million by 2033.

&quot;The prospect of a $1 million median house price for Brisbane is a real possibility.&quot;

Research by KPMG predicts that hosting the 2032 Games will deliver $8.1 billion in benefits to Queensland including a $4.6 billion economic boost to tourism and trade and $3.5 billion in social improvements such as health, volunteering and community benefits.

Urban takes a look at three residences you could secure in Brisbane to get ahead of the trends.

1. Bide, Newstead 
Developer: Dibcorp Properties 
Two-bedroom apartments from $635,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163979]

Bide is a new residential offering nestled in the heart of Newstead, offering 89 residences.

Designed in collaboration between architects Twohill &amp; James, Lat27 and Wiltshire Stevens Architecture, each apartment has rethought residential living.

&ldquo;Bide embodies the belief that the spaces we inhabit are essential to a balanced life&rdquo;, the project marketing reads.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102309 project_image_fid=163974]

Among its features include large spacious apartments, open-plan living and dining, balcony space and a study nook in some apartments for working from home.

2. Queens Wharf Residences, Brisbane 
Developer:&nbsp;Far East Consortium 
One-bedroom apartments from $565,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13276 project_image_fid=80720]

Situated in Brisbane&rsquo;s historical heart, Queens Wharf Residences&rsquo; atrium entrance on George Street directly connects the CBD through to the riverfront.

The precinct will feature iconic contemporary architecture alongside a collection of beautifully restored heritage buildings, including the Brisbane Printing Office.

The one, two and three-bedroom residences at Queen&rsquo;s Wharf have been curated by&nbsp;Cottee Parker&nbsp;to deliver the most to its residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13276 project_image_fid=80722]

Each apartment features winter gardens with lift and tilt windows, as well as feature views of the city, Botanic Garden or city views.

3. The Coterie, Fortitude Valley 
Developer: Vicland Property Group 
Two-bedroom apartments from $536,080

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6257 project_image_fid=141423]

Vicland Property Group&rsquo;s two breathtaking apartment buildings at Fortitude Valley offers a modern-day sanctuary in an energised urban village.

A prestigious collaboration by&nbsp;Rothelowman&nbsp;and&nbsp;Bruce Henderson&nbsp;Architects delivers residents a range of versatile, open-plan designs and luxury lifestyle offerings.

&ldquo;Designer touches are apparent in every space with the refined treatment of contemporary polished surfaces, textural finishes and confident, monochromatic highlights&rdquo;, the project marketing reads.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6257 project_image_fid=141415]

With limited apartments remaining, and only 1.5-kilometres from Brisbane&rsquo;s CBD, The Coterie is not one to miss.

The forecast by PRD Research was reached using historical data of house prices following two global events hosted in Brisbane, the World Expo in 1988 and the G20 Summit in 2014. 

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Olympics to grow Brisbane median house price 2.5 times current levels, economist says

ABS has today released the June data for housing approvals which shows that in NSW, the planning system approved 12.7% in less in June than was approved in May. The Council shut down for elections has started.

Urban Taskforce has warned the NSW Government that they faced a real risk that Councils would ease off on approvals in the lead up to what was to be the September elections.&nbsp; Today&rsquo;s data shows that the Government&rsquo;s light touch on Councils has resulted in precisely that.&nbsp; Worse, the Council elections have now been postponed till December and unless someone holds a blow-torch to the Councils and approval bodies, approvals will drop off further.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=31751]

Even prior to the lockdown, the productivity of the planning system had dropped off. Our economy cannot recover with this drop off in performance.&nbsp; Planning reform and approvals now will deliver a pipeline of work for when vaccinations allow our economy to fully re-open.&nbsp; There is an opportunity to catch up &ndash; but it seems that the planning system has slowed up again.

Urban Taskforce calls on the Government to immediately implement the recommendation of the NSW Productivity Commission White Paper.&nbsp; The GSC has set housing targets.&nbsp; It is up to the NSW Government to ensure that Councils meet them.&nbsp; Targets need to be regularly monitored against performance.&nbsp; There can be no excuse for Councils refusing to accept the targets.&nbsp; LGA Housing Strategies must come with sanctions for those Councils that selfishly refuse to contribute to housing supply, resulting in rising new home prices inflicted on those least able to afford them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30049 project_image_fid=162884]

The data shows that NSW housing approvals reached their peak in 2015/16 2016/17 and 2017/18 at around 73,000 approvals each year. Then, in the lead up to the NSW State election (2018/19) approvals dropped off to 58,000 and stayed low in 2019/20 with only 48,000, despite &ldquo;fast track&rdquo; schemes and a flurry of DPIE activity.

The total approvals have risen across all of NSW to 59,000 and this is welcome &ndash; but it remains well short of what is needed.&nbsp; The data reveals the problem.&nbsp; Apartment approvals across NSW have dropped significantly (most of these in Greater Sydney) while new separated house approvals have remained relatively flat.

<img alt="" height="444" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-08-07_at_2.19.12_am.png" width="1180" />

The table above, based on the ABS data, clearly shows that the price escalation is due to a drop off in housing approvals and this is flowing on to a drop off in housing supply.&nbsp;

Further, the time taken to navigate the NSW planning system, even after an approval has been granted, often takes years, adding to risk for the property development industry and additional costs for new home buyers.

The message went out to Councils in 2018 that the NSW Government was going to go soft on them after the Council amalgamation debacle.&nbsp; But the result has been a massive under supply of housing.&nbsp; This will only get worse unless Government can incentivise Councils to deliver an over-supply of new approvals.

Council elections have now been postponed till December and unless someone holds a blow-torch to the Councils and approval bodies, approvals will drop off further. 

ABS housing approvals data spells out why housing prices are going through the roof

The RBA has noted that housing prices had increased significantly in recent months.&nbsp;

&quot;Growth in housing prices had been especially strong for detached housing, particularly in outer metropolitan and regional areas,&quot; according to the RBA.

&quot;This had partly reflected strong demand from first-home buyers and owner-occupiers seeking more space.&quot;

&quot;The momentum in housing price increases had broadened recently to include the largest capital cities and the more expensive segments of these markets, although the increase in overall housing prices in Australia during the pandemic had been more modest than in a number of other countries.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=95292 project_image_fid=156359]

The minutes did not only single out New Zealand.

The minutes did note cross-country differences in population growth stemming from international border closures.&nbsp;

&quot;In some countries, including Canada, which had experienced high and rising rates of immigration in the years prior to the pandemic, population growth had slowed substantially.&quot;

&quot;In New Zealand, some of the slowdown in population growth had been mitigated by the return of expatriate New Zealand citizens during the pandemic; in turn, it was likely that this had contributed to the increase in housing demand in New Zealand.&quot;

The minutes noted the decline in population growth in Australia had been particularly steep relative to other countries; in the 3 months to September, the Australian population had declined for the first time in several decades as a result of a reversal in net overseas migration.&nbsp;

&quot;However, in countries where net migration had contributed less to population growth in the years before the pandemic, including the United States, population trends had been little changed in recent quarters.&quot;

The minutes also noted that globally, asset prices had been increasing given the low levels of interest rates.&nbsp;

&quot;Housing prices, in particular, had increased strongly in a number of countries in the latter part of 2020 and early 2021.&quot;

&quot;Growth in housing credit had increased in a number of these countries, but it generally remained slower than growth in housing prices.&quot;

It noted that in Australia growth in both housing credit and housing prices had picked up, &quot;but to a lesser extent.&quot;

Annualised growth in housing credit had been around 4&frac12; per cent over the 6 months to February, driven by demand from owner-occupiers.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3494 project_image_fid=90814]

The minutes noted demand for new housing finance had been strong, and the high level of loan commitments indicated that housing credit growth was likely to increase in the months ahead.&nbsp;

&quot;However, there was no notable evidence of a deterioration in housing lending standards.&nbsp;

&quot;The share of loans with higher loan-to-valuation ratios had increased, but this was in part explained by the larger share of first-home buyers.&quot;

&quot;The share of loans with high debt-to-income ratios had been relatively stable.&quot;

&quot;Members agreed that it would be important to watch carefully for increased risk-taking by lenders and any deterioration in lending standards and larger shares of higher-risk loans.&quot;

The members noted that low interest rates had been one of the factors contributing to the increase in demand for housing, alongside other policies such as government grants.&nbsp;

The latest minutes noted advertised rents had also picked up in a number of capital cities recently, although, as in other countries, housing prices had increased by more than rents.

&quot;Rents and overall conditions in the apartment market in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Sydney, remained subdued as the reduction in net overseas migration was still lowering demand,&quot; it noted.

The RBA says the increase in overall housing prices in Australia during the pandemic had been more modest than in a number of other countries

jchancellor

Australia's housing price rises more modest than overseas: RBA

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According to the CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index, the most affordable quarter of suburbs recorded annual value growth of 6.6 percent compared to a 6.4 percent rise across the middle market, and a 7.0 percent rise across the most expensive suburbs. 
While the annual figures show the most expensive suburbs recorded the strongest value growth over the past 3 months, value rises have been more uniform and with little difference between the broad value-based segments of the market. 
Across the most affordable suburbs, we’ve seen values move 1.8 percent higher over the March quarter followed by the most expensive suburbs move by 1.7 percent, and the middle market suburbs by 1.6 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.40.49%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.40.49%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Home values across the city increased by 7.4 percent over the past year after annual growth peaked at 18.4 percent in July 2015 Over the past year the most affordable suburbs have seen values rise by 8.0 percent. 
The middle market values are 6.6 percent higher and the most expensive suburbs have recorded value rises of 8.8 percent. 
The annual rate of value growth is slowing across each segment, however the premium end of the market continues to record higher rates of capital gain.
Sydney: Home values across the city increased by 7.4 percent over the past year after annual growth peaked at 18.4 percent in July 2015. Over the past year the most affordable suburbs have seen values rise by 8.0 percent. The middle market values are 6.6 percent higher and the most expensive suburbs have recorded value rises of 8.8 percent.
The annual rate of value growth is slowing across each segment, however the premium end of the market continues to record higher rates of capital gain.
 
Melbourne: Recorded home value growth of 9.8 percent over the past year, down from a recent peak of 14.2 percent in September 2015. 
The most affordable suburbs recorded value rises of 9.7 percent compared to 10.5 percent across the middle market and 10.0 percent across the most expensive suburbs. Growth is fairly steady across the affordable market but slowing across the middle and most expensive suburbs.
Brisbane: Home values increased by 4.5 percent over the past year with the rate of value growth higher than it was a year ago. The most expensive suburbs recorded value growth of 4.6 percent over the past year compared to a 5.1 percent rise across the middle of the market.
The most affordable suburbs saw a 5.7 percent rise. Annual rates of growth are generally trending higher across each segment.
Adelaide: Home value changes have been fairly steady having increased by 3.2 percent over the past year. The most expensive suburbs saw values rise by 3.2 percent compared to a 3.1 percent increase across the middle market and a 2.9 percent increase across the most affordable suburbs.
Across each segment growth is fairly steady with the rate of capital gain holding reasonably firm over the past twelve months.
Perth: The only major capital city to see value falls over the past year, however, the annual rate of decline has started to improve, easing from - 4.1 percent in November 2015 to the current annual decline of -2.0 percent. Across the broad valuation segments, home values have fallen -0.5 percent across the most affordable suburbs, and are -1.5 percent lower across the middle market and 2.1 percent lower across the most expensive suburbs.
Across each segment values are still falling but the rate of decline in values has slowed.
The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Home Value Index highlights the importance of looking beneath the broad headline figures.
<a href="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.42.39%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-21%20at%201.42.39%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Markets within a city can be performing quite differently to what the over-arching statistics for a capital city market shows, not only across valuation based segments of the market, but also across housing types and geographically.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Home value growth strongest in most expensive suburbs: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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Earlier this week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released their Residential Property Price Indexes for the June 2017 quarter.  
The data confirmed what the CoreLogic Home Value Index has already told us, the rate of growth in the housing market is slowing, particularly so in Sydney.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage1.png" alt="">
  Over the June 2017 quarter, the ABS Index shows combined capital city dwelling prices increased by 1.9% while the CoreLogic Home Value Index showed an increase of a lower 1.6%.  
As the above graph shows, the results of both indices are closely aligned.  The CoreLogic data is already available to August and shows a further cooling in the rate of growth over the three months.  
Given this we can expect the trend towards slower growth to hold over the September 2017 quarter.  In fact, the daily movements in the CoreLogic series is suggesting Sydney values trended slightly lower over the first 20 days of September.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage2.png" alt="">
  On an annual change basis both indices also indicate a slowing of the rate of growth.  Over the 12 months to June 2017, the ABS reports combined capital city dwelling prices rose by 10.2% while CoreLogic data shows capital city dwelling values increasing by 11.1%.  Over the 12 months to August 2017, CoreLogic data shows that dwelling value growth has slowed to 9.7% and it is expected that the ABS data once available will also show a similar slowing.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage3.png" alt="">
  Sydney is showing clearer signs of a slowdown than other capital cities and that is evident in the above chart.  Over the June quarter, the ABS showed a change of 2.3% compared to the CoreLogic series which showed a lower 1.6% change.  The CoreLogic data to August shows increasing evidence of the Sydney market cooling with values having increased by a much lower 0.3%.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage4.png" alt="">
 
 The annual series also show signs of softer growth in Sydney with ABS data recording a change of 13.8%, over the 12 months to June down from 14.4% in March.  While the CoreLogic series recorded an annual change to June of 16.4% compared to 15.5% in March. Meanwhile, the latest data for August shows that annual growth in Sydney dwelling values has slowed to 13.0%.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage5.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage5.png" alt="">
  The above chart shows the annual change in values across each index over the 12 months to June 2017.  Despite being two different methodologies you can see that the rates of change across both metrics are quite similar.  They show strong growth in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, reasonably strong growth in Canberra, moderate growth in Brisbane and Adelaide and ongoing declines in Perth and Darwin.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/2017-09-21-blogimage6.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/2017-09-21-blogimage6.png" alt="">
 The CoreLogic Hedonic Index provides a much more timely and granular view of housing market conditions (both geographically and across product types) and the trends are interesting.  It shows a substantial slowdown in growth in Sydney and a more moderate slowing in Melbourne.  It indicates that growth has accelerated in Hobart and has accelerated marginally in Canberra and Brisbane.  
Adelaide values are increasing at pretty much the same rate as they were in June while the declines in Perth and Darwin are greater, quite significantly so in Darwin.
Overall the data highlights the value of having a selection of indices with which to analyse the market.  
It also shows how valuable more timely measures are.  
When you are analysing Australia’s single largest asset class, timely insights are extremely important to allow those participants in the housing market to be able to make accurate decisions in as close to real time as possible.
It’s also a timely reminder that there is no single ‘Australian’ housing market.  
While headline growth rates provide a macro-view on the market, each capital city and region of the country is showing its own unique housing market dynamic which is influenced by local demographic and economic trends as well as supply factors.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Rate of growth in the housing market is slowing

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The real estate market across the country continued to bounce back from the much less damaging impact of COVID-19 on the housing market.
All states and territories over dwelling value growth over November, the November Home Value Index from data house CoreLogic found.
Dwelling values rose a combined 0.8 per cent nationally last month, on the back of 0.4 per cent growth in October.
The resurgent Melbourne market outperformed Sydney, with 0.7 per cent gains compared to Sydney's 0.4 per cent growth.
Brisbane were the only other capital to see growth less than one per cent. Dwelling values in the Queensland capital rose 0.6 per cent to take their quarterly gains to 1.5 per cent.
Canberra and Darwin were the nation's top performers, both seeing huge 1.9 per cent growth, taking their quarterly gains to 3.3 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/DEC/1/November%20index%20CoreLogic.jpg" alt=""> 
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says that if the current growth trend persists, we are likely to see values surpass pre-COVID levels in early 2021.
“The national home value index is still seven tenths of a per cent below the level recorded in March, but if housing values continue to rise at the current pace we could see a recovery from the COVID downturn as early as January or February next year.
"The recovery in Melbourne, where home values remain 5% below their recent peak, will take longer," Lawless advises.
<h1>House and Units</h1>
Sydney's unit market was the only market across Australia to see declines in November, down -0.7 per cent to be -1.8 per cent down on the quarter.
Houses drove Sydney's 0.4 per cent dwelling value gains. The housing market saw a 0.9 per cent growth in values.
Melbourne have surged out of the pandemic following the end of their extended lockdown and loosening of restrictions to overtake Sydney's growth in November.
Houses were up 0.6 per cent to be just -0.6 per cent down on the quarter, with units performing even better, up 0.7 per cent to be 0.1 per cent up on the quarter.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/DEC/1/CL%20Nov%20full%20index.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane's 0.6 per cent gains were driven by its housing market, up 0.7 per cent compared to its 0.2 per cent gains in the apartment market.
The housing and unit markets were both strong in Perth, up 1.1 per cent and one per cent respectively to see Perth dwelling values rise 1.1 per cent.
Darwin's boom was driven by its huge spike in apartments, up 2.4 per cent on the month to be 4.9 per cent up on the quarter, the best performing market across the country in the last three months. 
 
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Home values rise nationwide in November, growth trend to surpass pre-COVID levels in early 2021: CoreLogic 

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The risks to financial stability from falling housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne have abated, according to the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR).
The CFR is the coordinating body for Australia's main financial regulatory agencies.
There are four members: the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
It is a non-statutory body, without regulatory or policy decision-making powers.
At its meeting on 18 September 2019, the Council discussed risks facing the Australian financial system, regulatory issues and developments relevant to its members.
The topics discussed included the following:
<ul>
<li>
Financing conditions and the housing market Council members discussed credit conditions and recent developments in the housing market. Housing credit growth has been subdued, particularly growth in credit to investors. The major banks have seen slower growth relative to other lenders. Subdued credit growth has been primarily driven by weaker credit demand, though loan approvals have picked up recently. The potential for risks to financial stability from falling housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne has abated somewhat, with prices rising in the past few months. In contrast, prices have continued their prolonged decline in Western Australia and the Northern Territory and so the prevalence of negative equity for borrowers in those regions has continued to rise. The Council also discussed the continuing tight credit conditions for small businesses, with little growth in credit outstanding over the past year. The Council will continue to closely monitor developments. Members discussed progress with updating the guidance regarding responsible lending provisions in the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009. The updated guidance should provide greater clarity about what is required for a lender to comply with its obligations, taking into consideration enhancements to lending practices, the impact of competition from new market entrants, as well as enhanced access to and usage of consumer credit data and technological tools. 
</li>
<li>
Policy developments APRA provided an update on a number of policy initiatives, including changes to the related entities framework for banks and other ADIs and proposals to strengthen remuneration requirements across all APRA-regulated entities. The proposed remuneration requirements seek to better align remuneration frameworks with the long-term interests of entities and their stakeholders, and incorporate a recommendation from the Royal Commission on limiting remuneration based on financial metrics. APRA briefed members on the outcomes of its capability review. 
</li>
<li>
Superannuation fund liquidity The Council considered arrangements for managing liquidity at superannuation funds during periods of market stress. They noted that arrangements had operated as intended during the financial crisis and had since been strengthened. They agreed that existing arrangements provide an appropriate incentive for superannuation funds to manage their liquidity and that circumstances where a systemic liquidity problem could arise for the superannuation system were highly unlikely. Members concluded that no additional measures, including access to liquidity from the Reserve Bank, were warranted.</li>
</ul>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Falling housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne are less likely to be a risk to financial stability: CFR

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Sydney’s housing market will see flat or possibly falling prices this month, while Melbourne’s market continues to edge up, with values set to rise around half a per cent in August, according to CoreLogic.
In a preview of its revised monthly housing price index, CoreLogic said there had been no price growth in Sydney during August, as investors withdrew following higher mortgage rates on the back of the banking regulator’s crackdown.
Sydney’s almost unstoppable housing market was not immune to a downturn, head of research Tim Lawless said.
It was not however a precursor for any dramatic price correction.
"If you look back at any past cycle, you will find that prices do not fall off the cliff," Mr Lawless said.
“We don’t think it would be disastrous, but it (Sydney housing values) could fall 5-10 per cent peak to trough,” Mr Lawless said following the launch in Sydney of CoreLogic’s updated housing value index.
<div>
"Sydney has been gradually cooling since November last year, <a href="https://www.afr.com/real-estate/how-it-sold-aged-housing-campaigner-barbara-squires-makes-own-downsizing-move-20170827-gy57z3">auction clearance rates</a> have starting slowing...all signs the market is cooling."
"The question is what will be the difference between the peak and trough."
</div>
He suggests by the end of this year, the pace of growth for Sydney and Melbourne could be neck and neck at 12.5-13 per cent in each city.
"Sydney’s market peaked at an annual growth rate of more than 19 per cent while Melbourne topped 15 per cent.
"In Melbourne, auction clearances were still topping 70 per cent, and investors were still active, unlike Sydney where investors had fallen away..
“Melbourne doesn’t have the affordability constraints of Sydney.
"The overall growth in Sydney’s values had been powered by the top end of the market while in Melbourne, more affordable housing had underpinned the market.
"Perth’s hard-hit housing market has seen a price fall of 1.5 per cent so far in this month.
"But the worst was likely behind the city as jobs growth improves in the state.
“Affordabitlity has been the silver lining ... noting that first home buyers accounted for about 25 per cent of sales.
"In Brisbane, CoreLogic found housing values edged up only 0.2 per cent for the quarter with the market dragged down by a flood of new apartment construction.
"The poor perceptions around the city’s unit market was dampening the city’s whole housing sector with the market not reflecting improved immigration."
<div>
Corelogic will reveal its new format hedonic index for August national house prices this Friday, which will see improved sampling, better handling of off the plan sales, along less volatility in daily and monthly readings.
The series goes back to 1980.
</div>
<div>The new index will result in slight changes in trends so far this year as Sydney's house prices rise in the year to July will be 10.9 per cent as opposed to 10.5 per cent under the old index.</div>
<div>
Melbourne will be up 15.7 per cent compared to 12.4 per cent and Brisbane will be 13 per cent for the year, as opposed to 15.9 per cent.
</div>
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Sydney’s housing market will see flat or falling prices this month: CoreLogic

<html><body><div class="cq-article-content-paras section">
Interest rate hikes aimed at curbing Australia's property boom and surging household debt would likely be "very costly" to the broader economy, a leading US central banker has warned.
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, says Australian house prices are "flashing red".
But he cautioned against trying to fix the problem by hiking rates.
He said they would have "very unfavourable trade-offs" - and especially high costs in terms of unemployment and inflation".
Dr Williams suggested the lack of a housing downturn, or a recession since 1991, may be making many Australians too complacent about the risks that have built up.
"A lot of our attitudes towards investment, economic phenomena, like inflation and things like that really are shaped by our lifetimes.
"If people think there's no risk, they'll take a lot of risk," he told The Australian Financial Review
"If you raise interest rates to try to maybe slow the house price build-up or debt build-up, that harms the economy, makes it harder to achieve your central bank goals of whatever your inflation target is."
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Housing Prices

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Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News