Housing Market

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<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The temporary supplement to JobSeeker payments in Australia are set to finish at the end of March 2021. The JobSeeker ‘coronavirus supplement’ was a temporary boost to new and existing recipients of welfare schemes in response to the onset of COVID-19 including JobSeeker, Youth Allowance, Austudy and the Parenting Payment. </p>

<p>In early 2020, the supplement was set at an additional $275 per week, virtually doubling payments for some recipients. Recently, it was announced that as the coronavirus supplement is wound down from March, a permanent $25 increase will be added to payments. While a permanent increase will make some better off, welfare recipients will be worse off by $250 per week compared with the onset of COVID-19.</p>

<p>But will the removal of the JobSeeker supplement have any impact on the housing market?</p>

<p>First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that the JobSeeker supplement has already been reduced significantly in recent months, with no dampening impact apparent on the housing market as a whole.</p>

<p>In late March 2020, the original JobSeeker supplement was set at an additional $275 per week. In late September, the supplement was reduced to $125 per week, and it was reduced further to $75 per week through the first quarter of 2021.</p>

<p>However, housing market momentum has increased from September to January, amid the reduction in the supplement. Between the end of September and January, the CoreLogic national home value index rose 3.2%, and rental values increased 2.5%.</p>

<p>Another consideration is that even as the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement was reduced, fewer Australians have been reliant on welfare due to a strong recovery trend in the labour market.</p>

<p>Data from the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) suggests there were 11.7% fewer JobSeeker recipients toward the end January 2020, compared with the end of September. However, there is still a heightened risk to wider-spread housing stress, as the number recipients at January was still 55.9% higher than at the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020.</p>

<p>Changes to JobSeeker would likely have little direct impact on housing market values. With lower income households generally having lower rates of home ownership, it is more likely that households receiving JobSeeker are renters. This would imply an indirect impact on housing prices, where reduced rental return could impact an investor’s willingness to pay for a property.</p>

<p>However, even looking at regions with the highest proportion of JobSeeker recipients in Australia relative to the local population, rental outcomes have been mixed since the significant reduction of the Jobseeker supplement in September. </p>

<p>Only one region has actually seen a decline in rental values, while other SA2 markets have seen an average increase in market rents of 4.2%, which is actually above the 2.5% increase in rent values nationally over the same period.</p>

<p>Importantly, there is no counter-factual for rental performance in these markets where the coronavirus supplement is unchanged. Under these circumstances, rents may have increased even further.</p>

<p>However, what this data does highlight is that the impending changes to JobSeeker could create increased divergence between incomes and housing costs for some of Australia’s most vulnerable households. While these rental markets may be increasing in aggregate, housing stress, and even homelessness, may be faced by individuals whose livelihoods have been impacted by COVID-19.</p>

<p>While changes to JobSeeker are unlikely to impact the housing market, the welfare reduction could greatly disrupt housing situations for many.</p>

<p><strong>Eliza Owen<em> </em></strong><em>is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic</em></p>
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Will changes to JobSeeker impact the housing market? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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<p><strong>EXPERT INSIGHT</strong></p>

<p>The Aussie housing market is buoyant as the lifestyle stampede from the big cities to regional areas continues during the pandemic. Home prices advanced at the beginning of 2021, supported by record-low mortgage rates, the HomeBuilder grant scheme, the improving labour market, low advertised housing inventory and a pick up in home sales. In fact, CoreLogic estimates that “the number of national home sales over the past three months was 23.9 per cent higher than the equivalent three month period from a year ago.” The lift in sales volumes is consistent with an almost 50 per cent surge in owner-occupier housing loan approvals over the six months to November 2020. And CoreLogic preliminary national auction clearance rates hit 81.1 per cent last weekend.</p>

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<p>Home prices remain divergent across Australia. The smaller and relatively ‘Covid-19 free’ housing markets of Darwin (+2.3 per cent), Hobart (+1.6 per cent), Perth (+1.6 per cent) and Canberra (+1.2 per cent) outperformed big cities: Sydney and Melbourne (both +0.4 per cent) in January. </p>

<p>But it’s regional Australian housing markets – benefiting from remote working arrangements, internal migration, closed borders and better affordability – that are going gangbusters during the pandemic. Regional home prices climbed by 1.58 per cent in January after December’s 1.63 per cent gain – the biggest lift in 17 years. Regional home prices surged 7.9 per cent in the year to January – the strongest annual growth rate in 16 years. CoreLogic data also shows that in 46 of the 88 SA4 regions, home prices were at record highs to begin 2021.</p>

<p>Australia’s manufacturing sector is expanding at the fastest pace in over four years with new order inflows hitting 4-year highs. In fact AiGroup reported that Aussie factories are benefitting from “disruptions to global supply chains,” which “have led more customers to purchase from Australian manufacturers.” And “demand from customers in the agriculture, mining, medical and home building sectors” has been particularly strong as Australia’s post-pandemic recovery gains momentum. </p>

<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong></p>

<p>The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 0.9 per cent in January to be 3.0 per cent higher over the year. </p>

<p>In capital cities, prices rose by 0.7 per cent to be up 1.7 per cent over the year. House prices climbed 0.9 per cent and apartment prices rose by 0.1 per cent. House prices were up 2.4 per cent on a year ago, but prices of apartments decreased by 0.1 per cent.</p>

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<p>In regional areas, home prices jumped 1.6 per cent with house prices up 1.7 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.2 per cent. Regional home prices were up 7.9 per cent on the year with houses lifting 8.2 per cent and apartments up 6.2 per cent.  </p>

<p>The average Australian capital city house price (median price) in January was $709,017 and the average unit price was $574,565.</p>

<p>Home prices were higher in all eight capital cities in January: Sydney (+0.4 per cent); Melbourne (+0.4 per cent); Brisbane (+0.9 per cent); Adelaide (+0.9 per cent); Perth (+1.6 per cent); Hobart (+1.6 per cent); Darwin (+2.3 per cent); Canberra (+1.2 per cent).</p>

<p>Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities in January: Sydney (+2.0 per cent); Melbourne (-2.1 per cent); Brisbane (+4.0 per cent); Adelaide (+6.5 per cent); Perth (+3.4 per cent); Hobart (+6.8 per cent); Darwin (+11.4 per cent); Canberra (+8.5 per cent).</p>

<p>Total returns on national dwellings rose by 6.6 per cent in the year to January with houses up 7.2 per cent and units up by 4.8 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index fell by 0.7 per cent over the year to January. </p>

<p><img alt="" height="732" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/46_record_regions.jpg" width="354"></p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>Australia’s property market is strong, driven by a pandemic-led recovery in house prices across regional Australia and smaller capital cities. But it’s not all good news with annual apartment prices turning negative in January amid oversupply and reduced demand for inner city living in the pandemic.</p>

<p>More modest gains in home prices are being recorded in Sydney and Melbourne as both contend with disruptions from virus flare ups, higher pandemic job losses, border closures, slowing population growth and a weaker unit market. In fact, prices fell slightly in Sydney – City and Inner South (-0.3 per cent), Sydney – Inner West (-0.1 per cent) and Melbourne – Inner East (-0.03 per cent) in January.</p>

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<p>And the rental market is incredibly weak in Australia’s two most populous cities with rents down 7.8 per cent in Melbourne and 5.6 per cent in Sydney over the year to January. The recovery in inner city rentals remains highly dependent on employer return-to-work directives, continued virus suppression and the job market recovery. But the upside is that rental affordability has improved for younger local students returning to university campuses in the next month. </p>

<p>Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists expect national home prices to lift by around 8.0 per cent in 2021.  However disparities within the housing market are expected to linger with stronger demand for detached housing relative to units and townhouses.  </p>

<p><strong>Ryan Felsman</strong><em> is a Senior Economist at CommSec</em></p>
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Home prices hit record highs in 46 Australian regions: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>

<p>Housing market data has shown a fairly strong post-COVID recovery trend following a short, sharp slowdown in activity through the middle of 2020. Australian housing values rose 2.3% in the final quarter of the year, trending higher from a recent low in September 2020, to be just 0.1% below the previous record high value in October 2017.</p>

<p>Data from CoreLogic reveals which housing markets have seen the highest value increases relative to their value at March 2020.</p>

<p>March 2020 is a good yardstick for measuring the impact of COVID on housing markets. That is because it encompasses the ‘start’ of COVID in Australia, when the country reached the milestone of 100 cases diagnosed, and subsequently stage 2 restrictions rolled out nationally.</p>

<p>At the capital city level, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and Hobart saw some level of value falls close to the onset of COVID. By December however, Perth, Brisbane and Hobart housing values had surpassed their March 2020 highs. Home values across Darwin, the ACT and Adelaide have continually increased since March, with Darwin values up 8.3% since the onset of the pandemic.</p>

<p><img alt="" height="716" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/corelogic_dwelling_value_changes.jpg" width="1200"></p>

<p>Of the 116 LGA markets analysed, 95 saw some level of decline in values since the onset of COVID. Of those 95 markets, 37 have recovered to value levels above March.</p>

<p>Some of the strongest value increases since March are located in areas that did see a COVID-induced decline including Kwinana in Perth( up8.7%), Burnside in Adelaide( up 7.0%),and Scenic Rim in Brisbane (up 6.5%). Most of the markets with a strong recovery had seen relatively mild downturns to begin with.</p>

<p>A good example of this is Sydney’s Central Coast, where values declined just -0.1% over April. The Central Coast has been a resilient and popular market through much of 2020 due to the relatively affordable and low density stock across the region, as well as the coastal appeal. Since March, dwelling values on the central coast have increased 6.5% through to December.</p>

<p>Of the 10 council regions where values have been most impacted since the onset of the pandemic, eight were located across Melbourne, and two were in Sydney. It is unsurprising to see Melbourne dwelling markets have a long way to go before recovering value. Housing demand in this historically global city has been hampered by extended international border restrictions, as well as domestic social distancing policies through the September quarter.</p>

<p>Highlighting the depth of decline, or value increases, at a LGA level has important implications for real estate, banking and finance. The data shows inner-Melbourne council areas may be at greater risk of negative equity for recently purchased homes. For first home buyers or first time investors, the data also demonstrates where values are relatively discounted due to COVID-19. However, it is worth noting that in 2021, more markets are likely to move into recovery mode. This is expected as long as economic conditions continue to recover, and mortgage rates remain at record lows.</p>

<p>Eliza Owen is CoreLogic's head of research.</p>
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Data from CoreLogic reveals which housing markets have seen the highest value increases relative to their value at March 2020.

Which housing markets are back above pre-COVID values?

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<p>The national home value index one per cent over December, pointing to a strong start to 2021, data analytics firm CoreLogic's monthly home value index found.</p>

<p>It was the third consecutive month of dwelling value gains after declines of -2.1 per cent drop in dwelling values between April and September.</p>

<p>Darwin again led the way in monthly gains over December, with dwelling values up another 2.3 per cent. They are 5.5 per cent up on the quarter in the Northern Territory capital and nine per cent up the calendar year, the best performing market across the country for 2020.</p>

<p>Darwin was followed by 1.1 per cent gains in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.</p>

<p>Melbourne was the other other capital to see gains of one per cent or above, with Hobart and Sydney recorded modest 0.7 per cent growth and Canberra the worst performer but still up 0.6 per cent.</p>

<p><img alt="" height="707" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/corelogic_january_2021.jpg" width="1200"></p>

<p>CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless said the year was characterised by a mild COVID dip in values, but unprecedented volatility in the transaction space.</p>

<p>“The number of residential property sales plummeted by -40% through March and April but finished the year with almost 8% more sales relative to a year ago as buyer numbers surged through the second half of the year," Lawless said.</p>

<p>Despite the volatility, housing values showed remarkable resilience, falling by only -2.1% before rebounding with strength throughout the final quarter of 2020.”</p>

<h2>Houses v Units</h2>

<p>The national housing market started its expected outperformance of its unit counterpart over December, with national average gains of 1.1 per cent over the month.</p>

<p>Unit values held firm however, seeing growth in every capital apart from Sydney.</p>

<p>Sydney's housing market did the heavy lifting for their 0.7 per cent dwelling value gains. Houses were up 1.1 per cent over December compared to a -0.1 per cent contraction in the unit market.</p>

<p>House values in Melbourne outperformed Sydney's, up 1.2 per cent. Their unit market growth was one of the best in the country, up 0.6 per cent, only bettered by Perth's 1.1 per cent gains.</p>

<p>It was a similar script in Queensland, with Brisbane home values up 1.2 per cent and unit values up 0.4 per cent.</p>

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The national home value index price rose one per cent over December, pointing to a strong start to 2021, data analytics firm CoreLogic's monthly home value index found.



Joel Robinson

Every capital sees real estate value growth in December 2020: CoreLogic

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<div>One of the most notable aspects of this building approvals boom has been that it has been focussed on the building of high density housing to an unprecedented extent.</div>
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<div>If you want capital growth from property then I suggest that you should be wary of high rise stock since proportionately far too much of it is has been approved.</div>
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<div>Approvals in most instances do now seem to be pulling back, but the approvals pipeline has seen 4+ storey dwellings pushed through this cycle to date in unprecedented volumes.</div>
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<div>In August the number of approvals pulled back in Victoria from 1,766 to as the new <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/building-approvals-boom-passes-peak" target="_blank">levy</a> takes effect, but the 12mMA trendline tells its own story...</div>
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<div><span>In Queensland the number of 4+ storey dwelling approvals at 895 in August was well below the extraordinarily high volumes approved in 7 of the preceding 9 months, and the trendline peak now seems to be in...</span></div>
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<div><span>Being home to the largest capital city, New South Wales has typically approved the greatest number of high rise apartments, although here too approvals fell from an elevated 3,431 to 1,887 in August...</span></div>
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<div>Overall it seems that the great flood of approvals of high rise apartments is now easing as developers take note of the looming oversupply.</div>
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<div>The problem with the highest density tower blocks for investors is simply that there is no inherent scarcity value. </div>
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<div>Pass.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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The high rise apartment glut: Pete Wargent

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<div>Historically dwelling listings tend to begin to rise from the end of August.</div>
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<div>However, nationally dwelling stock on market levels remain 1.3% lower than a year ago.</div>
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<div>At the capital city level stock on market has declined over the past year in Hobart (-11%), Canberra (-8%), Melbourne (-5%), Brisbane (-3%), Adelaide (-2%) and Sydney (-1%).</div>
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<div>However, there have been significant increases in stock on market in the struggling markets of Perth (+18%) and Darwin (+15%).</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Stock for sale virtually unchanged from last year: Pete Wargent

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<p>The most recent Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) suggested that several housing market indicators have eased.  </p>
<p>If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is more relaxed, then that's generally good news for homeowners.</p>
<p>There have also been loads of macro and share market analysts calling the peak of 'the market', whatever that means, but then again they do that every year, so I don't pay any attention to those. </p>
<p>Certainly, the RBA's private sector credit growth figures show that housing credit is growing less quickly than it was. </p>
<p>That said, housing credit is still growing at a sprightly enough +6.4 percent, and recent months have shown that investors are well and truly on the march again. <span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></p>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/11/08/RBA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><img src="/images/2016/11/08/RBA2.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>Another issue with the theme of slowing credit growth is that the figures cannot easily account for debt relating to off-the-plan purchases which have yet to settle.</div>
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<div>And there are lots of these!</div>
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<div>The figures to the end of June showed that there were more than 212,000 dwellings under construction, including about 150,000 units, apartments, and townhouses.</div>
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<br><div class="separator">Without knowing how many of these dwellings have been bought by non-residents and how many are off-the-plan purchases it's impossible to say what the impact on credit growth will be for certain, but it may be non-trivial.</div>
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<div class="separator">Of course, there are about 9.75 million dwellings in Australia it's certainly not the RBA's job to set monetary policy for every housing market sector in Australia. </div>
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<div class="separator">However, another sticking point for the 'easing' theory is that inner Sydney's housing markets aren't easing.</div>
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<div class="separator">A simple look through the weekend's auction results tells you that prices have jumped again in recent weeks.</div>
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<div class="separator">Having copped oodles of stick for reporting double digit price growth in Sydney, CoreLogic may yet prove to be ahead of the pack, and see the other data providers follow suit. </div>
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<div class="separator">The eastern suburbs market is insanely strong (Paddington, Surry Hills, Bondi), suburbs on the city fringe to the inner west are clearly smoking records when viewed through a hedonic pricing lens, and the harbour city's lower north shore is on fire. </div>
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<div class="separator">Meanwhile, the northern beaches are probably the hottest suburbs of the lot.</div>
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<div class="separator">I don't really have the time or inclination to follow the suburbs further out too closely, so can't really comment with any authority on that.</div>
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<div class="separator">The high volume of apartments under construction will have an impact eventually, although mostly these are pre-sold. </div>
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<div class="separator">I also note in passing that Sydney's median auction price last week was $1,337,000. </div>
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<div class="separator">It's never been higher.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Housing market indicators have eased

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<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">We all know that housing market conditions are very different from region to region, with values continuing to show strong growth conditions in Sydney and </span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Melbourne, while dwelling values are trending lower in Perth and Darwin. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">One of the fundamental drivers of housing market performance comes back to the balance between housing supply and demand.</span></p>
<p>All too often, we reference supply levels to the amount of new housing stock that has either been approved for construction, or recently completed. From this perspective, we are absolutely seeing a surge of apartments into inner city markets across the largest capital cities. However, another facet of housing supply relates to how many homes are currently being advertised for sale.</p>
<p><strong>Listing counts</strong></p>
<p>Listing counts, which typically reflect how many established homes are currently available for sale (as opposed to developer stock, or off-the-plan listings, which generally aren’t advertised for sale individually on the major real estate portals such as realestate.com.au) are also an important measure of housing supply.</p>
<p>The number of properties being advertised for sale provides a vital clue about the direction of housing prices. Those cities where advertised stock levels remain short are continuing to see upwards price pressures, while cities with historically high stock levels are seeing downwards pressure.</p>
<p>Take Sydney as a case in point. CoreLogic is currently tracking just over 18,800 listings across the metro region of Sydney. While this headline figure is approximately 4% higher than a year ago, overall stock levels remain historically low. As a comparison point, when the Sydney market was moving through a down phase between late 2010 and mid-2012, CoreLogic was tracking just over 40,000 properties on the market.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/30/marketTim_normal.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p>The fact that Sydney listing numbers remains so low is one of the factors providing the upwards pressure on housing prices. Buyers simply don’t have a lot of stock to choose from, which creates urgency in the market and provides leverage to vendors when setting and negotiating their prices.</p>
<p>At the other end of the spectrum is a city like Darwin, where listing numbers have recently moved through historically high levels. CoreLogic is currently tracking just over 1,600 homes for sale across Darwin. Considering the past 12 months saw approximately 2,160 dwellings sold across Darwin, we can estimate there is roughly 9 months of ‘effective’ housing supply across the Darwin market.</p>
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<p>Watching the trend in listing numbers is an important aspect to understanding local housing market performance. Most cities are still recording a relatively low number of property advertisements compared with historic levels, however with Spring approaching, we are likely to see an upwards trend of newly advertised properties enter the market.</p>
<p>With transaction numbers already trending lower, this upswing in stock levels will provide a timely test of the market’s strength.</p>
<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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The balance between housing supply and demand: Tim Lawless

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The latest CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index reveals further gains across most capital city housing markets last month, taking the current growth phase into its 52nd month.</p>
<p>Capital city dwelling values continued to show a strong headline rate of growth over the September quarter, with the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index rising 2.9 percent over the past three months. The combined capital city index, which is heavily weighted towards the Sydney and Melbourne markets, recorded a 1.0% month-on-month gain, taking capital city dwelling values 41.3% higher since the growth cycle commenced in June 2012.</p>
<p>Growth conditions were substantially different from region-to-region. The top performing market was Melbourne where dwelling values pushed 5.0% higher over the third calendar quarter, due largely to a strong rise in house values (+5.2%) which balanced a softer result for the unit market (+2.9%). Canberra showed the second highest rate of growth over the quarter with values up 4.5%, followed by Sydney at 3.5%.</p>
<p>In contrast, the weakest housing market over the quarter was Darwin where dwelling values declined by 4.5%, to be 11.1% lower than the most recent 2014 peak in property values and 13.9% lower than the previous 2010 peak in dwelling values. Perth dwelling values also slipped 3.2% lower over the quarter to take the cumulative decline in values to 10.4% since their December 2014 peak, and 5.2% below the previous peak in 2010. Brisbane dwelling values also slipped lower over the quarter falling by a marginal 0.3%, attributable mostly to larger declines across the unit sector.</p>
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<h3>Index results as at September 30, 2016</h3>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/04/2016-10-3--indices.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/04/2016-10-3--indices.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Darwin dwelling values are now roughly equivalent to what they were seven years ago, while in Perth, dwelling values have retraced back to 2007 levels.</p>
<p>The combined regional markets of Australia, where the measure of value growth lags by one month, saw house values slip 1.1% lower over the three months to the end of August. While modest declines were recorded across most of the ‘rest of state’ housing markets, the weakest conditions continue to be experienced in regional Western Australia, where house values have fallen 12.4% over the past twelve months. The weak housing market conditions across the regional areas of Western Australia were also highlighted in the recent CoreLogic Pain and Gain report, which showed one third of houses which resold over the June quarter did so at gross loss.</p>
<p>While the headline rate of growth remains positive across most cities, the majority of capital cities have seen their growth trend moderate compared with a year ago. The only capital city markets where the current quarterly rate of growth was higher (compared with the September 2015 quarter) was Hobart, Canberra and Adelaide.</p>
<p>The quarterly pace of capital gains in Sydney peaked over the June quarter of 2015 at 7.4% and, similarly, Melbourne’s quarterly rate of capital gain peaked at 7.9% over the same quarter.</p>
<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
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Further gains across most capital city housing markets: Tim Lawless

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<p>Quite surprising that nothing has been said when last Friday, the Australian government debt ticked just over $475 billion.</p>
<p>For the last twelve months, the government on average has been borrowing $6.35 billion each month, so what happens when they hit the debt ceiling of $500 billion? Will that then bring an end to Australia’s prized membership of the AAA – rated club?</p>
<p>Standard &amp; Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch have just 9 countries in the AAA club – Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland. Should our membership be revoked that would mean that borrowing costs would increase overnight, which is not a good sign for the Australian economy. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) currently estimates that Australian small businesses currently owe $13 billion in unpaid tax debts. Obviously, there is no impact on existing debt although when it comes time to refinance then that would be an entirely different story.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.03.18%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.03.18%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>With the federal government recently weighing into the housing affordability debacle there are two things that I would immediately implement to critique our housing markets.</p>
<p>The ATO has taken over responsibility for being Australia’s biggest property manager so land banking must be the first point of call. It is estimated that Sydney now has well over 100,000 permanently vacant apartments so they should be rented out to ease the rental crisis. Look at the lost revenues the ATO is missing out on with these land banked properties, where the clear majority are owned by overseas investors. Land banking in Australia must be outlawed.</p>
<p>Reverse the ridiculous off-the-plan ratio back to 50 percent from 100 percent to overseas buyers. We are now going into the ninth year of 100 percent and the only clear impact we are seeing is that foreign investors have become a most dominant player. In 2016, Chinese developers acquired almost 40 percent of the Australian residential sites that were offered to the marketplace. All these properties are offered exclusively to Asia and these properties are not available for local buyers. Reducing the ratio back to 50 percent would have a big impact on housing affordability.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.04.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.04.36%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>A recent survey by Roy Morgan Research found that approximately 7 per cent of Australian mortgage holders have little or zero equity in their homes in the twelve months to October 2016. That would equate to approximately 300,000 properties across Australia. Western Australia has the highest number with 54,000, followed by South Australia with 27,000, Queensland with 63,000, Melbourne has 50,000, Victoria has 65,000, NSW has 73,000 and Sydney has 33,000. Tasmania came in with 5,000 – these are concerning numbers when you consider the east coast has enjoyed unprecedented capital appreciation.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.05.32%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/20/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-20%20at%209.05.32%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Since 2009, Sydney home values have doubled and Melbourne have climbed 85 percent. In 2011, less than 10 percent of investors held multiple investment properties, according to <em>Digital Finance Analytics</em>. This has now grown to 16 percent nationally, and on the east coast multiple investment properties is now approximately 18 percent.</p>
<p>Really makes one wonder, just what data our elected politicians and policy makers are actually looking at or quite possibly, they don’t even understand this data?</p>
<p>The most recent data from CoreLogic shows that the rental yields in Sydney and Melbourne are on the decline. For Sydney, houses yield is 2.8 percent and units are 3.8 percent. In Melbourne, houses are 2.7 percent and units are 4.0 percent. It will be most interesting to see just how low these yields will go with all the new developments entering the market. It is quite clear that investors have been enjoying the unprecedented capital growth over rental yields in Sydney and Melbourne, although this is about to change.</p>
<p>With very few alternate investment opportunities, we don’t at this particular point in time expect to see investors retreating out of the market, although we do expect to see carnage in the CBD markets. This should not come as a great surprise as these markets have introduced thousands and thousands of new apartments, and many suburbs have constructed less than one hundred new apartments.</p>
<p>Whatever the case, if you like watching real estate machinations 2017 will keep you highly entertained.</p>
<p>To add to this, the Commonwealth Bank advised mortgage brokers this week, that from February 13, it will cease accepting refinancing applications for investment home loans. Will the other major lenders then follow suit?</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>ROBERT SIMEON is a director of </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/"><span class="s2"><em>Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</em></span></a><em> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. </em></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/"><span class="s2"><em>Virtual Realty News</em></span></a><em> since 2000.</em></span></p>
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