Housing Collapse

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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 Australia has roughly “six weeks” to prevent a housing market collapse caused by the banks’ crackdown on foreign investment, a US-based security think tank has warned, according to a News Limited press report.   Quite clearly, you can tell from the website of the think tank, the International Strategic Studies Association, are not exactly experts in the field of Australian housing.   As I tweeted out yesterday, if we are truly six weeks away from a national housing crash, why are most leading indicators such as auction clearance rates and total real estate listings suggesting otherwise?   And surely we would also be already recording a significant rise in non-performing loans? The chart below shows that’s clearly not the case. Such loans, in fact, remain at low levels. <a href="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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<div><img src="/images/2016/09/15/e7a43fa6-d686-4b6d-b16d-d1e7f2464075.png" alt="">   We pretty much have had from the time the national market started to rally in late 2012, a pile of market bears declaring the imminent crash of the Australian housing market. They are, what I call, the boys who cried wolf. And one thing they all have in their favor is a media circus who will give them all a front page and reporters who rarely check their credentials, qualifications or their previous track records, which too often leave little to be desired.   I guess, in the above story at least, News Limited, who had the 'exclusive', asked for a counter view. I am also pleased to say one very major television network opted out of taking the ‘story’ any further when they contacted the SQM Research office for its view.     More than this, I am convinced there is an industry of bear spruikers who earn a living preaching the end of the financial world, and for that matter, the demise of Australian housing. Take this example from Harry Dent -   a very public figure who has repeatedly made trips to Australia preaching the end of our housing market.  No wonder he enjoys coming out here.  You see, if you want to hire out Harry for a speaking engagement, the cost will be US$20,000 to US$40,000. Not bad for a day’s pay!   I’m sure if I were to dig deeper into a number of these very public bears, we would most certainly uncover a prosperous industry. That is, so-called experts making big dollars out of preaching doom.   Now, I have always said that I have no problem with those voicing the risks in the Australian housing market. There are indeed many risks, particularly those associated with the ever-rising level of household debt to GDP and what that would mean if our country just returned to ‘normal’ cash rate settings. That would indeed likely trigger a real rise in bad loans.  </div>
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<div>These risks need to be pointed out to all participants. That, along with particular risks within the housing market, such as a clear oversupply of Brisbane CBD apartments, as the elevated vacancy rate highlights.   And for that matter the ongoing collapse of the Perth rental market, particularly in the Perth CBD itself, where the vacancy rate is over 8 per cent.   But it’s when I see headline-grabbing stories like the one above, with no follow up investigation, that I feel the public are been taken for a ride by sections of the media and by 'experts' out to grab a headline and maybe a quick buck.   Sorry to say, the great Australian housing crash predicted by Harry Dent and other so-called experts in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 is far from a certainty.   There are many other ways our overvalued housing market may return to some sort of sense of fair value, which could include the very ‘boring’ scenario of underperformance for a very long time.</div>
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<div>Louis Christopher is managing director, SQM Research and can be contacted <a href="https://sqmresearch.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Housing collapse claims a money game: SQM's Louis Christopher

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GUEST OBSERVATION
This is an email McGrath sent to his estate agents on Tuesday.
There was a piece on 60 Minutes that was particularly misleading in my opinion and unsurprisingly melodramatic in its depiction of a property market that could shortly spiral out of control.  It’s simply not the case.
In fact, barring any macro-economic disaster like we saw when the GFC took us all by surprise, I believe the property market has seen most of the value declines it is going to see this cycle (in many markets there has been a 5% to 10% decline in values this year and I think we may see another 5% to 7% in some areas) and at the end of that there will either be a steady state period of market stability or even a small positive rebound back by a few percent.  I say this having now experienced five property cycles in my 35 years real estate career and each time, often at around this stage of the cycle, hearing the same old headline grabbing commentary by one of two so-called experts saying something like “the Australian property market is in a bubble and when it bursts will fall by 40% etc.!” Which of course has never happened and unless we see a total financial catastrophe engulf the entire world is never going to happen.  Two questions that I get asked when I have this discussion.  “Why then do they say this and why do you think they are they wrong?” So the first one is the easiest one. Generally speaking the sponsors of such theories are seeking self-promotion.  They put their views forward in some form of press release aimed to grab media attention (the 60 Minutes story was called 'Bricks and Slaughter!') and inevitably are looking to promote a book or attract eyeballs to their website.  Steve Keen predicted a 40% drop in 2010, Johnathan Tepper predicted a 30% to 50% drop in 2016. Of course, none have even been close to accurate.  In fact, they have been ridiculously inaccurate on every occasion. And why are they going to be wrong again this time?  Well firstly you would have to interrogate what would have to happen for their theory would have any validity whatsoever. Firstly, two out of three Australians own their own home or are living in a home with the owner and one in three are in a rented place. Of the 66% who own their home, half of these homes are fully paid off with no loan whatsoever. Just park that fact for the moment but it should make you feel that property is on a very solid footing. Next let’s look at the generational change occurring – where many Baby Boomers (aged 60 to 75 approximately) are assisting their children secure a first home and of course as the life cycle turns, many will also be leaving their often-considerable assets to their kids.  And in the main most Australians are wealthier than ever before through their property, other assets or indeed inheritance. Statistically, the average Australian is worth around $395,000 which is at record highs. Next, let’s look at the underlying factors that we are experiencing today that may affect property, negatively or positively. We are enjoying a robust economy, low levels of unemployment, record low interest rates and significant overseas immigration and investment. None of these are likely to change significantly into the future. After all, we are the lucky country. So, when you combine the strong levels of home ownership with the robust economic and social markers it’s easy to see why the negative pundits have consistently got it wrong. Australian real estate is one of the best investments on the planet and that isn’t changing. Now I do have concern with housing affordability however. Despite the average Australian being technically wealthier than ever before there is no doubt that the ability for many Australians to buy their own property and in many instances even rent their own property is challenging. And this situation needs to be addresses urgently by both the Governments (Federal and State) as well as the private sector. What has been and will continue to be most Australians’ best financial freedom strategy, residential property, does have another side which must be addressed. Every Australian should have a path to securing shelter for themselves and their family and this issue will need strong collaboration by both private and public sectors to ensure we achieve this.  And at McGrath we are in a great position to assist and influence positive outcomes in this space. And we will.
John McGrath is the founder of McGrath Estate Agents.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

60 Minutes property segment was misleading and melodramatic: John McGrath

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Ray White agents across Australasia achieved $3.4 billion in sales during August, which was the same tally as July.
However it was down on last August.
The last month of winter in 2017 saw the headline sales figure for Australia and New Zealand come at $3.67 billion, which was up nine percent compared to 2016.
At the time it was noted August 2017 "had produced a better result than many might have expected."
This week Brian White noted "while well below the result last year, it supports our view that the market may well have now adjusted."
Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, said the majority of the market correction had already happened.
“There has been an adjustment and I believe that much of that adjustment has been made,” Mr White said.
“The speed of the growth in Sydney and Melbourne was unsustainable.
"We are experiencing a healthier market.”
Markets outside Sydney and Melbourne had been resilient. 
“Only an explosion in interest rates would pull the market down significantly,” he said.
State based figures were not available for August 2018.
But in August 2017 New South Wales sales had lifted 18 per cent year on year to $1.259 billion. Sales volume in Victoria jumped 30 per cent to $647 million.
In August 2017 Queensland’s sales came in at $696 million, just $2 million shy of the same time in 2016. Tasmania booked $10 million, while Western Australia reported $84 million and South Australian sales came in at $117 million.  Its New Zealand network reported $629 million in August 2017, down 13 per cent on the same period in 2016.
 
 
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Ray White see August 2018 sales dip

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Australia's housing is among the four riskiest markets in the world, according to Oxford Economics.
It has a strong prospect of falling prices posing a threat to economic activity, the research paper noted
The housing market dangers were "especially acute" in Sweden, Australia, Canada and Hong Kong, according to Oxford.
Weighing up a range of risk factors, including housing valuations compared to long-term averages, it noted all four valuations were very elevated.
It noted there has been a lengthy housing boom, debt levels were high and there was a significant share of floating rate debt, Oxford's lead economist Adam Slater wrote in a research note.
The risks were relatively limited in key markets including the US, Germany, France, China and Japan.
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Overall edian OECD house price valuations are below the 2006-07 peak but are higher for the risky markets, according to Oxford.
<div id="article-inline-ad">"Historical experience suggests that high valuations – of 125 per cent or more of the long-term average – point to a 60 per cent chance of prices falling over the next five years," Mr Slater wrote.</div>
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<div>"This matters because house prices can have a big impact on economic activity, even if the link may have loosened in the G7 in recent years.</div>
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"Looking across a range of housing risk indicators, property market dangers look concentrated in a number of smaller advanced economies and are less severe for the largest economies."
On a valuation index where the long-term average is 100, Australian housing is at 160, while Sweden is at 165, Canada at 173 and Hong Kong at 203.
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<div>Slater wrote rising rates are not strictly necessary for prices to start falling (i.e. Sweden) and in the context of high valuations and debt, even modest increases (i.e. Canada and Hong Kong) "could be a problem."</div>
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<div>Oxford's assessment suggest Australian house prices have another risk factor, with an 82 per cent share of its mortgages held on floating rates.</div>
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Australia's housing among the four riskiest markets in the world, Oxford Economics

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Martin North says 60 Minutes took the worst case from his four scenarios as the basis of the alarming segment which went to air last night on Channel 9.
"It is not my central scenario, rated only a 20 percent chance, as I made clear when interviewed," he said noting this caveat did not make it to the final cut.
North suggested a fall of 45 percent in home prices would be over three years or so, and require the US financial markets to react to rising US Fed rates.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/17/north-forecast.jpg" alt="">
"This creates a GFC 2.0." North, a finance sector analyst and principal Digital Finance Analytics, suggested.
The 60 Minutes reporter Tom Steinfort advised "several of the experts we interviewed for this story estimate it could be as much as 40 percent in Melbourne and Sydney, while even the most optimistic property analysts concede there will be a drop of at least 10-15 percent."
Steinfort says he's been spooked by the downturn, holding off his desired property purchase with fiancee Claudia Jukic.
His 60 Minutes report kicked off with a serious inaccuracy.
"For as long as most of us care to remember, or perhaps only as long as we want to remember, property prices in Australia have only gone in one direction, at least in our big cities," Steinfort claimed.
CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher recently wrote <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/88574-2018-housing-declines-hit-melbourne-s-inner-east-and-sydney-s-hills-district-hardest-corelogic" target="_blank">a detailed research analysis tracking the current downturn</a> with three downturns since 2003.
North said the figures used in the program did not reflect his “central scenario” and that Channel Nine “chose not to cover” the more likely alternatives.
“My best call would be [property value falls] in the region of 15-20 per cent from top, over two to three years,” he said.
You can read North's full analysis <a href="http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/updated-finance-and-property-scenarios-summary-findings/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
 
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45 percent housing price collapse was least likely scenario: Martin North's 60 Minutes postscript

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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better", Deloitte Access Economics says.
The increasingly higher cost and lower availability of credit will generate a "mini-credit crunch."
"The nation's immigration intake will be cut – perhaps severely – thereby undercutting many of the 'most likely' forecasts underpinning the growth of domestic markets," the report says.
There would also be a "fear-of-fear-itself" momentum, the report adds.
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"Lending is down, it's amidst its longest dry spell since the global financial crisis, and investor loans have dropped to a six-year low," the Deloitte report, reported in The Australian Financial Review, says.</div>
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section">"That says housing price falls – now infecting Melbourne – will get worse before they get better," said Deloitte adding they still expect a pretty benign construction cycle.</div>
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"That benign nature owes much to what we don't see in the next couple of years.
"We don't see China falling over and Australian unemployment jumping. And we don't see global and local interest rates rising fast.
"That still sees the current downswing bottoming out in late 2019 but, thanks to continuing population gains, bottoming at levels that are solid compared with the depths plumbed in past cycles."
Deloitte’s latest Business Outlook report projects that state and federal budgets will be hit hard by falling house prices and commodity prices.
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NSW will bear the brunt of the housing downturn because it has had the biggest rise in house prices among capital cities.
Expensive homes will struggle to sell but there will be "less damage at the lower end", which benefits from first home buyer concessions, the report says.
“House prices are essentially a function of how much people can borrow,” Deloitte economists led by Chris Richardson wrote in their 155-page quarterly report released today.
“Big banks are now running scared,” it suggests.
“Their sudden surge of caution means borrowers with the same characteristics would now get a smaller loan than they would have 18 months ago.”
They predict the current house price falls in Australia will “keep on keeping on”.
 
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House price falls in Sydney and Melbourne "will get worse before they get better"

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recent release of median housing sale prices across Australia by the Domain Group demonstrates different results for Eastern seaboard cities compared to the west and for apartments compared to houses.
The Domain data over the last year shows a collapse in Sydney house median prices of 9.9 percent compared to a median apartment reduction of 5.8 percent.
Apartments are now $350,000 cheaper than the median house and this is making apartments more affordable and therefore more attractive to more people in the market.
The interesting result from the Domain data is that Australia has two quite different profiles. The eastern seaboard cities are clearly having major drops in both housing and apartment median prices but Adelaide is amazingly seeing median house and apartment prices going up not down.
The big message for Sydney from the Domain data is that apartments have lost value at half the rate of houses. This seems to be driven by the fact that apartments are generally around $350,000 cheaper on average than a house. Clearly many Sydney families and couples are still looking to buy an apartment rather than a house due to its affordability.
Even during a time of major contraction in the housing markets the swing to apartment living is tracking well.
The Urban Taskforce is concerned that the large drop in the value of houses and apartments has been partly driven by the pre-election negative attitude to so called over development by politicians harnessing votes by championing a stop to growth.
Sydney is still growing and the housing industry needs a steady supply process to maintain jobs rather than a major drop partly driven by scaremongering at election time.
CHRIS JOHNSON is the Urban Taskforce CEO
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Housing Collapse

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