Home Prices

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 2% in February according to CoreLogic and are up 2.6% on a year ago. This is their fastest monthly gain since 2003 and they have now surpassed their September 2017 record high by 0.7%.

Sydney dwelling prices rose a very strong 2.5%, resulting in five months of gains, and are up 2.8% on a year ago. Melbourne prices also rose 2.1%, resulting in four months of gains, but are down -1.3% on a year ago reflecting a -5.6% fall around mid-2020 through the various lockdowns.

Prices in other cities were all up strongly led by Hobart with prices up 2.5% in February and 8.7% through the year, followed by Canberra up 1.9%, Brisbane and Perth both up 1.5%, Adelaide up 0.8% and Darwin up 0.7%. Prices in Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide are all at record highs.

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Regional dwelling prices rose 2.1% in February and 9.4% on a year ago with their relative strength reflecting lower levels of indebtedness and hence less vulnerability to the financial stresses caused by the pandemic driven economic downturn, less exposure to the slump in immigration and increased buyer interest as people seek to relocate from cities as part of a secular trend towards working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle.

Capital city house prices rose 2.3% in February and 3.6% over the last 12 months whereas unit prices lagged with a 1.1% gain in the month and a -0.1% fall on a year ago, with the relative underperformance likely reflecting an ongoing shift in lifestyle preferences towards houses as a result of more working from home and a lifestyle choice and as weak rental conditions made worse by the slump in immigration constrain the inner city unit markets in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last 12 months unit rents fell -8.0% in Melbourne and -5.3% in Sydney, although there were further signs of stabilisation in February.

The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months. This rose another 10.5% in January and is now up 44.3% from a year ago. First home buyer finance surged 10.1%mom - and is up a whopping 73% on a year ago - to a new record high although with owner occupier ex first home buyer finance up an even stronger 11.3%, the first home buyer share of new loans slipped from a record 25% to 24.9%. Investor finance is now also surging and rose 9.4%. The ongoing strength in finance commitments points to more solid house price gains in the months ahead although January’s 2% capital city rise may be hard to beat.

Auction clearances are now very strong and sales are running around pre coronavirus levels, although listings are still relatively low. Clearance rates are at levels consistent with 15% or so annual price gains!

What’s driving the surge in home prices?

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, government incentives, the removal of responsible lending obligations, record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" and relatively low property listings are all helping to push prices higher with an element of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out” creeping in too. This is after bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from the pandemic recession. The combination has more than offset the impact of weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and has brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers, with investors now starting to jump in too.

Average capital city dwelling prices have now surpassed their September 2017 high, although this masks a wide divergence with: clear record highs in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Sydney and Melbourne still down just over 1% from their 2017 highs; and Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs.  

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Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to rise another 5% to 10% this year and next being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and the recovery in the jobs market but the stop to immigration and weak rental markets will likely constrain price gains in inner city areas and units in Melbourne and Sydney. Outer suburbs, houses, smaller cities and regional areas will see relatively stronger gains in 2021.

The phasing down of government incentives and exhaustion of first home buyers will likely see first home buyer demand as a share of housing finance and overall demand peak in the months ahead but they will likely be replaced by rebounding investor demand. Possible increases in 4 year plus fixed rate mortgage rates flowing from the recent surge in bond yields will act as a bit of a dampener but likely only enough to see price growth settle around a 5-10% annual pace.

Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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The strength in home prices is consistent with the surge in new housing finance commitments over recent months

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Housing finance commitments surged another 10.5% to start 2021: Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by just 0.4 points (0.3 percent) to 116.0 in the week to March 20.
 Confidence is up 4.1 percent over the year and above the average index value of 112 since 2014.
Higher home prices: The Bureau of Statistics reports that Australian home prices rose by 0.2 percent in the December quarter to stand 8.7 percent higher over the year.
Fewer people in homes: The estimated number of people per home continues to fall, dropping from 2.491 to 2.488 in the December quarter.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
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What does it all mean?
Headed into a period dominated by the Federal Budget and a possible double-dissolution election, Aussie consumers are in good shape. All the key components of the confidence survey are above short-term averages.
And indeed the outlook for family finances over the coming year – a lead indicator of spending – remains positive.
The key question is how confidence evolves over the next few weeks. The Aussie dollar is near US76 cents, interest rates are at generational lows, trend unemployment is at 26-months lows and petrol prices are just above the lowest levels recorded in six years. So there are few reasons to be negative.
The Bureau of Statistics has released data on home prices for the December quarter. However the better measures on home prices are those produced by CoreLogic RP Data and it’s worth noting that March quarter data will be released in just over a week, on April 1.
From 2011 to early 2014, the average number of people in Aussie homes rose – a rare development over the past century in Australia. But with more homes being built in recent years and rental conditions easing, more Gen Y (or Millennials) have been moving out of home. As a result the number of people per home is again shrinking, serving to soak up the increased supply of new homes.
What do the figures show?
Consumer confidence
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 0.4 points (0.3 percent) to 116.0 in the week to March 20. Confidence is up 4.1 percent over the year and above the average of 112 since 2014. Three of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +10 to +11;
The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +35 to +27;
Economic conditions over the next 12 months was up from -2 to +2;
Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up  from +7 to +9;
The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down  from +32 points to +31 points.
Residential property prices
The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its Residential Property Price indexes.
“The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 0.2 percent in the December quarter 2015. The index rose 8.7 per cent through the year to the December quarter 2015.
The capital city residential property price indexes rose in Melbourne (+1.6 percent), Brisbane (+1.6 percent), Adelaide (+0.9 percent), Canberra (+2.8 percent), Perth (+0.5 percent) and Hobart (+2.5 percent) and fell in Sydney (-1.6 percent) and Darwin (-1.8 percent).
Annually, residential property prices rose in Sydney (+13.9 percent), Melbourne (+9.6 percent), Canberra (+6.0 percent), Brisbane (+4.2 percent), Hobart (+3.5 percent) and Adelaide (+3.3 percent) and fell in Darwin (-3.2 percent) and Perth (-2.9 percent).
The ABS notes that as at December 2015 there were 9.62 million homes in Australia. On average there were 2.488 people per home, down from 2.491 in the September quarter.
“The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was $5,885,967.2m at the end of December quarter 2015, rising $31,557.1m over the quarter.
The mean price of residential dwellings rose $800 to $612,100 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 38,700 to 9,615,800 in the December quarter 2015.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)  provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.
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What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec doesn’t expect any change in the cash rate for the foreseeable future. Underlying inflation remains at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band but should lift over 2016.
The Reserve Bank believes that the aspects of the consumer confidence surveys dealing with family finances are the most important. The good news for retailers is that Aussie consumers believe finances are better than a year ago and likely to remain in good shape.
The fall in the number of people per home most probably reflects lower growth in rents and the lift in homebuilding, especially the shift to apartment living. But the drop in the number of people per home is one factor serving to alleviate concerns of a potential oversupply developing of new homes.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Contented consumers; Fewer people in homes: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
Sydney property prices fell by 1.4%, marking the biggest fall in nearly five years.
Melbourne property prices fell by 3.5% in November – the largest fall in 18 months.
The CoreLogic RP Data home value index of capital city home prices fell by 1.5% in November to stand 8.7 % higher over the year. 
Dwelling prices rose in just three of the eight capital cities in November.
The performance of manufacturing index lifted by 2.3 points to 52.5 in November, the highest reading in two years. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding.
Production, orders, employment, exports and sales all recorded healthy gains in November.
What does it all mean?
So far so good. The second day this week of better economic data. A mild correction in property prices (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) is a good thing, while a healthy expansion is taking place in manufacturing activity (two-year high).
The slide in capital city home prices in November marked the first fall in six months and the biggest slide nationally in 18 months. No doubt the weakness in home prices is being driven by the tightening in lending criteria by the banking sector.
In particular the concerted effort to cool investor demand or speculative home purchases is paying dividends.
Sydney house prices recorded a 1.4 % slide in November - its biggest fall in almost five years. But keep in mind Sydney home prices are still up almost 13 % over the year. 
While it was encouraging that Sydney and Melbourne prices pulled back, the perfect scenario would have been for a credible lift in prices across other capital cities.
Dwelling prices fell in five of the eight capital cities, and while “Rest of State” prices managed to lift by 0.3 % in November, annual growth holds at a paltry 2.8 %. 
This highlights the issues facing policymakers in attempting to manage a very diverse housing market. What we would expect to see is the lift in capital city house prices eventually filters out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months.
The consolidation in home prices is unlikely to see home building dry up.
There is a record pipeline of dwelling approvals that suggest a lot of building work will take place over the next 12-24 months - supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
The rebalancing effect across the economy continues to take place.
Manufacturing activity is now expanding at the fastest pace in two years and more importantly the sub-indices like, employment, production, sales and exports are all showing a credible lift.
The results mirror the lift in manufacturing investment in last week’s business investment data. No doubt the weaker Australian dollar will continue to support the sector.
What do the figures show?
Home prices
- The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices fell by 1.5 % in November to stand 8.7 % higher than a year ago.
- House prices fell by 1.6 % in November while apartments fell by 0.9 %. House prices were up 9.1 % on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.6 %.
- The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $626,000 and the average unit price was $525,000. The average Sydney house price was $950,000 – still some way off the $1 million mark.
- Dwelling prices rose in just three of the eight capital cities in November: Adelaide (up 0.7 %), Brisbane (up 0.6 %) and Perth (up 0.3 %).
- Prices fell most in Melbourne (down 3.5 %), Hobart (down 2.4 %), Sydney (down 1.4 %), Darwin (down 1.3 %) and Canberra (down 0.5 %).
- Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 12.8 %), followed by Melbourne (up 11.8 %), Canberra (up 4.5 %), Brisbane (up 4 %), Adelaide (up 3.3 %), and Hobart (up 1.1 %).
- Prices fell in Darwin (down 4.2 %) and Perth (down 4.1 %).
- Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to November rose by 12.8 % with houses up 13.0 % on a year earlier and units up 11.4 %.
CoreLogic RP Data noted that as a consequence of the tighter lending environment for rental yields, combined capital cities investors, as well as gross rental yields being at near record lows, participation in the housing market from investors has reduced from 54.1 % of all new mortgages in May 2015 to 45.4 % at the end of September, which is the lowest level since July 2013.
Data released by APRA at the end of last month showed the pace of investment related housing credit growth fell below the APRA 10 % speed limit for the first time since September last year, with the monthly change in investment credit growth the lowest since October 2011.
According to today’s results, the slowdown comes after auction clearance rates have moderated back to the low 60 % range since the last week of October, whilst average selling time and vendor discounting rates also continue to rise from their record lows.”
Performance of Manufacturing
- The Performance of Manufacturing index lifted by 2.3 points to 52.5 in November. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding.
- Production, orders, employment exports and sales all recorded healthy gains in November.
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Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
 
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Sydney home prices record biggest slide in five years: CommSec Research

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GUEST OBSERVER
Across the nation home prices are starting to look healthier with the gains more wide spread across the states, rather than being just Sydney or Melbourne based. In fact Sydney prices only lifted by 0.1% while capital city home prices rose by a much more robust 0.9%. Even more encouraging five of the eight capital cities recorded growth.
In fact if you take out the capital cities and look at the “Rest of State” index, home prices lifted by 0.6%. Granted it is still early days for the regional cities with home prices up just 2.8% over the past year, but the signs are more encouraging. We would expect to see the lift in capital city house prices eventually filters out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months. Strength in home prices across the nation will be more supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
Sydney house prices are up almost 17 per cent on a year ago with total returns lifting by a staggering 21 per cent over the past year. Although in the Sydney housing market there are signs that price growth will be more circumspect going forward. The tighter lending policies being adopted by the banks, coupled with new housing supply should ensure much more sedate property price growth. 
The manufacturing sector expanded for the third consecutive month. Clearly a function of the lower Australian dollar.
The job market continues to improve with job vacancies at the highest levels in almost three-year highs. With population growth slower than in past years, unemployment has more chance of falling over the coming year.
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What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.9 per cent in September to stand 11 per cent higher than a year ago.
House prices rose by 0.9 per cent in September while apartments rose by 0.6 per cent. House prices were up 11.6 per cent on a year ago and apartments were up by 7.3 per cent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $613,000 and the average unit price was $515,000. The average Sydney house price was $920,000 – still well short of a $1 million. 
Dwelling prices rose in five of the eight capital cities in September: Melbourne (up 2.4 per cent), Brisbane (up 1.4 per cent), Canberra (up 1.0 per cent), Perth (up 0.5 per cent) and Sydney (up 0.1 per cent). Prices fell in, Hobart (down 1.9 per cent), Adelaide (down 1.2 per cent), and Darwin (down 0.3 per cent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in four of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 16.7 per cent), followed by Melbourne (up 14.2 per cent), Brisbane (up 4.6 per cent), and Canberra (up 0.6 per cent). Price fell in Darwin (down 3.9 per cent), Perth (down 0.9 per cent) Adelaide (down 0.3 per cent), and Hobart (down 0.2 per cent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to August rose by 14.4 per cent with houses up 14.7 per cent on a year earlier and units up 12.3 per cent.
Job vacancies:
Job vacancies rose by 2.7 per cent to 160,900 in seasonally adjusted terms in the three months to August. It was the highest number of vacancies in almost 3 years (since November 2012).
Over the year vacancies lifted 18.6 per cent in Victoria in original terms over the year but fell 34.2 per cent in Northern Territory and fell by 11.3 per cent Western Australia. Over the past year, job vacancies rose by 15,100 or 10.2 per cent in original terms.
Over the past year, vacancies rose the most in Administrative and Support Services and Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants (both up 5,100). Vacancies fell most in Manufacturing (down 3,300), Mining and Transport and storage (both down 1,000) and Communication services (down 1,000).
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 0.4 points to 52.1 in September. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. Production, orders, exports, sales, and capacity use rose in September but employment, selling prices eased, while wages fell. 
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<div class="column">What is the importance of the economic data?</div>
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The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic- RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending. The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases Job Vacancies data each quarter. The data is useful in gauging the strength of the job marketThe Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The Reserve Bank won’t be lifting or cutting interest rates any time soon. A couple more months of sedate growth in Sydney home prices will be welcomed by policymakers – there is just no fundamental reason to change interest rate settings at present.
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 The ongoing lift in job vacancies is certainly encouraging – supporting household confidence and spending.
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<div class="column">CommSec expects interest rate settings to remain unchanged over 2015 and 2016. </div>
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<div class="column">Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au" target="_blank">CommSec</a></div>
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Healthy home prices: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

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The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

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Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

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The Melbourne apartment market has continued to see price growth at the start of 2021 following a strong run toward the back end of 2020.

The median apartment value was up 0.1 per cent, according to data analytics firm CoreLogic, following from 0.6 per cent gains in December and 0.7 per cent gains in November.

The gain sees the median apartment value hit $577,206. Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Urban has taken a look at five apartments blocks to secure under or around the median apartment value.

<h2>1. Collins &amp; Bates, Chadstone</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $520,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3950]

In the 98 residence Collins &amp; Bates, you can secure a two bedroom apartment for well below Melbourne's median apartment value. Prices for two beds start from $520,000, with one bed apartments from $420,000. All three bedroom residences, which started from $1 million, are sold out.

Aultun Property Group are the developers behind Collins &amp; Bates. They had Point Architects design the residences and had C&amp;C Interiors handle the interiors which feature Caesar stone bench tops, porcelain splashbacks, Bosch appliances, wool carpets and engineered oak timber flooring.

<h2>2. Hurstmon, Malvern East</h2>

Price: One bedroom apartments starting from $449,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4807]

Landream's Hurstmon development, set for completion in early 2022, has one bedroom apartments available from as low as $449,000. Their two bedroom apartments are a step up, starting from $795,000.

Designed by Telha Clarke, the 39 residence development is surrounded by stately trees and lush, established gardens.

<h2>3. Verre, Preston</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7275]

Wolf&amp;Lamb's Verre development, set for completion in early 2022, has one, two and three bedroom residences on offer with prices ranging from $385,000 to $815,000.

The 57 residence complex has been designed by Chamberlain Architects.

<h2>4. Melbourne Grand, Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3490]

Winner of the HIA Victorian apartment complex of the year for 2020, the Melbourne Grand has its two bedroom apartments starting from $569,000, just below Melbourne's median apartment price.

The 652 unit project, developed by Central Equity, offers a range of one, two and three bedroom apartments priced from $489,000.

<h2>5. Volaire, West Melbourne</h2>

Price: Two bedroom apartments starting from $599,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2407]

Just above Melbourne's median price are two bedroom apartments in the 159 apartment development Volaire. The CBUS Property-developed project spanning 10 levels has been designed by Hayball to pay homage to the site's industrial heritage with its architectural façade.

The triangular building features cantilevered balconies and occupies its own island site with a ground floor restaurant.

 
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Apartment investors were given a boost over January, with unit rents holding firm having declined 7.8 per cent over the past year.

Joel Robinson

Melbourne apartment median value up 0.1% in January: What you can buy for the new median 

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<h2>EXPERT INSIGHT</h2>

The first indicators for 2021 – home prices and manufacturing activity – are exhibiting signs of economic strength, rather than weakness.

Home prices are rising across the country. In fact home prices only fell in two of the 88 regions in the past month. And over the past year all but 12 regions posted gains in home prices. The icing on the cake: data shows that in 39 of the 88 regions, home prices were at record highs at the end of 2020.

The outback regions of South Australia and the Northern Territory as well as the mid to far north coast regions of NSW were amongst those posting the strongest home price gains in December. The Sydney Eastern Suburbs (down 0.1 per cent) and Far West and Orana region of NSW (-0.4 per cent) were the only two regions to record falls in home prices in December.

Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices. Both reflect Covid-19 effects, especially the new reality that work can be done anywhere and at any time.

The manufacturing sector is expanding solidly. In fact many companies reported that “backlogs of work had risen simply due to a short-term inability to expand production capacity sufficiently to meet the recent surge in demand.” And further, “efforts to boost capacity were reflected in manufacturers taking on extra staff at a rate not seen for just over two years.”   

What do the figures show?  Home prices – December 2020

The CoreLogic Home Value Index of national home prices rose by 1.0 per cent in December to be 3.0 per cent higher over the year. 

In capital cities, prices rose by 0.9 per cent to be up 2.0 per cent over the year. House prices climbed 1.1 per cent, but apartment prices rose by just 0.2 per cent. House prices were up 2.6 per cent on a year ago and prices of apartments increased by 0.2 per cent.

In regional areas, home prices jumped 1.6 per cent with house prices up 1.7 per cent and apartment prices up by 1.1 per cent. Regional home prices were up 6.9 per cent on the year with houses lifting 7.1 per cent and apartments up 5.9 per cent.  

The average Australian capital city house price (median price) in December was $696,413 and the average unit price was $574,388.

Home prices were higher in all eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+0.7 per cent); Melbourne (+1.0 per cent); Brisbane (+1.1 per cent); Adelaide (+1.1 per cent); Perth (+1.1 per cent); Hobart (+0.7 per cent); Darwin (+2.3 per cent); Canberra (+0.6 per cent).

Home prices were higher than a year ago in seven of the eight capital cities in December: Sydney (+2.7 per cent); Melbourne (-1.3 per cent); Brisbane (+3.6 per cent); Adelaide (+5.9 per cent); Perth (+2.0 per cent); Hobart (+7.7 per cent); Darwin (+11.9 per cent); Canberra (+8.5 per cent).

Total returns on national dwellings rose by 6.6 per cent in the year to December with houses up 7.1 per cent and units up by 5.0 per cent on a year earlier. In contrast, the S&amp;P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose by 3.6 per cent over the year to December. 

What are the implications for investors?

Higher home prices boost household wealth and also serve to boost borrowing capacity. As such the lift in home prices is positive for consumer durables including demand for cars.

CoreLogic reports that annual home sales were around 8 per cent higher over 2020. CoreLogic notes: “More home sales implies more work for a range of industries including real estate professionals, removalists, conveyancers, financiers and building inspectors along with more spending on household goods such as home furnishings, white goods and appliances.”

The strength in manufacturing is positive for employment and related sectors such as retailing. The increases in input prices and selling prices need to be watched though.

Risks to the housing market – prices, sales and building – include policy mistakes, the scaledown of JobKeeper and JobSeeker, new waves of virus infection and the length of time that foreign borders stay closed.

CRAIG JAMES is the Chief Economist at CommSec
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Regional home prices continue to outpace capital cities and house prices are out-pacing apartment prices

cjames

Home prices hit record highs across half of Australia despite COVID-19: Craig James

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Although values have been increasing for almost 4.5 years, homes continue to sell quite rapidly with a relatively low level of discounting occurring from vendors.
The vendor discount and time on market metrics are important measures of current market conditions. The vendor discounting metric looks at properties selling for less than their original list price and looks at the percentage difference from initial list price to ultimate sale price. 
The time on market metric shows the average number of days between when a property is first listed and when it ultimately sells. It’s important to note that each of these measures is based on private treaty sales and therefore excludes auctions.
In September 2016, the average days on market across the combined capital cities was recorded at 39 days. At the same time a year earlier the average days on market was a slightly lower 36 days. 
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<h3>Average days on market, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image1.png" alt="">
The second chart highlights the average days on market figure across each of the capital cities for each of the past 8 years in September. Over recent years homes have been selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne than they have across the other capital cities. Homes in Hobart and Canberra have seen fairly large falls in days on market over the past year which aligns with accelerating value growth. In Perth and Darwin homes have seen a large rise in the average days on market as selling conditions have become tougher and values have declined.
<h3>Average days on market, individual capital cities as at September </h3>
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In September 2016, the typical home which sold at a discount from its original listing price was discounted by -5.7 percent across the combined capital cities. In comparison, at the same time a year earlier the typical level of discounting was recorded at -6.0 percent. The lower level of discounting is reflective of more demand and fewer homes for sale but is also likely to reflect more realistic initial listing prices from vendors.
<h3>Average vendor discount, combined capital cities</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--pp-image3.png" alt="">
The final chart shows the discounting levels for each capital city in September over each of the past 8 years. Once again Sydney and Melbourne, along with Canberra, have been seeing low levels of discounting by vendors over recent years. In Sydney and Melbourne in particular this is indicative of strong housing demand which has led to many homes selling in excess of their initial list price. Despite only moderate growth in values over recent years Canberra has consistently recorded low levels of discounting. In Perth and Darwin as the housing market has wakened over recent years discounting levels have increased significantly.
<h3>Average vendor discount, individual capital cities as at September</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/23/2016-11-17--image4.png" alt="">
After combined capital city home values have been increasing for almost four and a half years (mainly in Sydney and Melbourne) the level of discounting and time on market remains extremely low. This is being driven by ongoing strong housing demand coupled with relatively low stock levels.  While these conditions persist it is difficult to see how home values in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, won’t continue to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
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<div class="column">In terms of home prices, it is Sydney first, daylight second. In August, Sydney prices rose by 1.1% while next-placed Adelaide saw prices rise by 0.7%. And in the majority of capital cities prices were flat or falling in the month. Over the year Sydney prices were up 17.6%. Next-placed Melbourne had prices up 10.6% on the year. But in three capital cities, home prices are below year ago levels. And home prices in regional Australia were up just 2.3% over the year.</div>
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 Sydney home prices will slow over the year as more homes are built. Already gross yields on homes are recording the slowest growth rates on record in Sydney and Melbourne. And rents are growing at the slowest annual rates on record.
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 If you are a tenant, it is good times. If you are a property seller in Sydney, times are still good. If you are a home buyer in Sydney, there are challenges, with prices still lifting strongly. If you are a home buyer outside Sydney or Melbourne, conditions are favourable. Clearly there is no such thing as a single housing “market”.
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 More good news on the economy – consumers are still happy and the manufacturing sector is expanding. Yet more reason for the Reserve Bank to be pleased at the evolving situation.
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<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
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<div class="column">Home prices</div>
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The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.3% in August to stand 10.2 per cent higher than a year ago.
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House prices rose by 0.3% in August while apartments rose by 0.8%. House prices were up 10.6% on a year ago and apartments were up by 7.4%.
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The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $600,000 and the average unit price was $509,900. The average Sydney house price was $900,000 – still well short of a $1 million. 
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Dwelling prices rose in just three of the eight capital cities in August: Sydney (up 1.1 per cent), Adelaide (up 0.7 per cent) and Darwin (up 0.3 per cent). Prices were flat in Melbourne and Brisbane. Prices fell in Canberra (down 1.7 per cent), Perth (down 1.3 per cent) and Hobart (down 1.1 per cent).
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 Home prices were higher than a year ago in five of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Sydney (up 17.6 per cent), followed by Melbourne (up 10.6 per cent), Brisbane (up 3.9 per cent), Adelaide (up 1.8 per cent), and Hobart (up 1.5 per cent). Price fell in Darwin (down 4.6 per cent), Perth (down 1.8 per cent) and Canberra (down 0.9 per cent).
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 Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to August rose by 14.4 per cent with houses up 14.7 per cent on a year earlier and units up 12.3 per cent.
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RP Data report: “While the August results indicate a slowdown in the rate of appreciation in dwelling values, the quarterly figures highlight just how strong the housing market has been over the past three months; combined capital city dwelling values are 5.3 per cent higher over the three months to the end of August this year.”
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 “Growth in weekly rental rates shifted to a new record low for annual growth over the month of August. Across the combined capital cities, the median weekly rental rate rose by just 0.7 per cent over the past twelve months, with house rents up 0.5 per cent and unit rents up a higher 1.6 per cent.
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 Since May 2013, dwelling values have risen at a faster pace than weekly rents. “The result of the disparity between dwelling values and dwelling rents has been a consistent downwards trend in gross rental yields. Gross yields are at record lows in both Sydney and Melbourne. A typical dwelling is attracting a gross yield of just 3.3 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively across Australia’s two largest cities.”
Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 1.3 points to 51.7 in August. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. The survey is volatile from month to month and is not providing accurate guidance on economic conditions. Orders, employment, capacity use and input prices rose in August but production, exports, sales, selling prices and wages fell.
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Consumer sentiment The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.3 per cent 113.3 in the week to August 30. Confidence is up 0.6 per cent over the year and still up on the average of 111.5 since 2014.
Three of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
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The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +11 to +10; The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +22 to +27;
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Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -6 to -11;
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Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +7 to +9;
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The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +31 to +32 points. What is the importance of the economic data?
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The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic- RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending. 
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The Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
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The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank. 
What are the implications for interest rates and investors? 
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The Reserve Bank won’t be lifting or cutting interest rates any time soon. The strong gains in Sydney home prices aren’t influencing policy decisions – there is just no fundamental reason to change interest rate settings at present. 
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CommSec expects interest rate settings to remain unchanged over 2015. 
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The resilience of consumer sentiment is positive for retailers. 
 
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<div class="column">Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</div>
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