Home Ownership

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Millennials are less likely to own a home than previous generations were at the same age.<a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sold-home-sale-real-estate-sign-168053771?src=MyyBDZW8tOfFl2Au5es9xg-1-2"> </a>
It used to be that everyone wanted to buy a home, seeking pleasure and security, as well as the potential for future wealth.
But younger Americans are buying homes far less often than their elders’ generations did, and that puts a large sector of the U.S. economy at risk.
<a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">Millennial home ownership levels</a> are dramatically lower than the those of previous generations at a similar age. In 1985, 45.5% of 25- to 34-year-olds owned homes in the U.S. By 2015, this had fallen about 25%.
Since the housing industry currently accounts for <a href="https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/housings-economic-impact/housings-contribution-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp.aspx" target="_blank">15% to 18% of the nation’s gross domestic product</a>, any change in established behaviour could have substantial consequences on the larger economy.
<a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rBUYZnsAAAAJ&amp;hl=en" target="_blank">Researchers like me</a> who are interested in the future of the U.S. economy are faced with some difficult questions about how millennials’ behaviour is changing the housing market.
My recent research suggests that both increases and decreases in home prices can be directly tied to where millennials choose to live. If a long-term behavioural change is afoot, and this generation continues not to buy homes, it will very directly impact GDP.
Homeownership
Research has shown that younger generations <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2018/accounting-age-financial-health-millennials" target="_blank">lag behind</a> previous generations in terms of milestones like homeownership and marriage.
One of the assets that set previous generations apart is home equity. In 2001, Gen-Xers held an average of US$130,000 in assets, compared to millennials in 2016 that held almost 31% less.
However, assets attributed to home equity are subject to the whims of the housing market. Just ask anyone <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-guide-to-the-financial-crisis--10-years-later/2018/09/10/114b76ba-af10-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story" target="_blank">still underwater</a> on a home purchased before the financial crisis.
And home equity isn’t just vulnerable to large-scale economic upheavals. In fact, it’s constantly fluctuating.
Age and cost
I analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau and American Community Survey from about 800 of the most populous counties in the U.S., or about 85% of the population, in a study that has not yet been published. The data show a rather disconcerting trend.
If no one ever moved from one county to another, almost all counties would gradually grow older in terms of average age.
However, the migration of primarily younger individuals has caused an escalation in this ageing shift. Some areas are ageing much more quickly than expected. In those areas, home prices have been vulnerable to long-term declines.
In other words, the trend of rising or falling home values follows patterns of migration in the U.S.
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From 2010 to 2016, counties with ageing populations were about 50% more likely to have experienced a decline in home values than those counties that were becoming “younger.” Not surprisingly, counties that were becoming younger were often experiencing increases in both populations and in the prices of homes.
Two areas that provide an illustration of this are key to the oil and gas industry: the Midland-Odessa area of Texas and Ward County, North Dakota. Both areas have experienced not only a net decrease in the age of residents, but also a net increase in population.
This is far from a rural phenomenon. In Allegheny County, the Pennsylvania county that’s home to Pittsburgh, a similar increase in population has also decreased the average age of its residents.
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The cost of a home
Millennials’ migration to particular counties has fuelled <a href="https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse/the-marketpulse-vol-8-issue-4-april-2019-screen-041719.pdf" target="_blank">speculative real estate transactions</a>.
In 2018, such transactions are reaching levels just below the pre-crisis highs, accounting for almost 11% of all homes sold last year. The prices are inflated by buyers looking to “flip” houses. This forces younger buyers to compete with the professionals, pushing them out of the markets they are migrating to.
Younger buyers are further frustrated by the cost of what economists refer to as frictions. Frictions include <a href="https://www.realtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/RT_0618News.pdf" target="_blank">commissions that average 5% to 6%</a> of the purchase price, myriad inspection and appraisal fees, as well as mortgage and title insurance. All of this runs counter to the transparency and ease of access many millennials have become used to in the modern world.
Since the younger generation is <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/96221/homeownership_and_the_american_dream_0.pdf" target="_blank">better educated</a>, one might expect significant wage increases to counter some of these frictions. But recent graduates between the ages of 22 and 27 <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_wages" target="_blank">earn about 2% less</a> than their predecessors did in 1990.
If <a href="https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted" target="_blank">home prices</a> had also stayed relatively flat, this likely wouldn’t be an issue. However, from 2000 to the present, average home prices have increased by about 3.8% annually, though this varies dramatically from county to county.
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As urban areas continue to attract more new residents, many young people may need to reassess the true value that home ownership offers. Meanwhile, older generations are likely just becoming aware of the impact of millennial migration on the American dream. If you live in an area that is ageing faster than the natural rate, the probability of your home value decreasing is very real.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115830/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Jimmie Lenz, Clinical Assistant Professor of Finance, University of South Carolina
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-millennials-are-affecting-the-price-of-your-home-115830" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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How millennials are affecting the price of your home: Jimmie Lenz

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was invited to make a submission to the Inquiry into Home Ownership. It's well <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/inquiry-into-home-ownership/pdf/inquiry-into-home-ownership.pdf" target="_blank">worth a read</a>. A few of the key points are summarised below.
Home ownership rates
While the media headlines chose to focus almost exclusively on a brief reference to tax legislation reform towards the end of the report, generally the Reserve was fairly moderately positioned in its viewpoints.
Home ownership rates at the time of the last Census in 2011 sat at 68 per cent, which represents a moderate decline, yet also a fairly stable result over the past five decades. Before the 1970s, home ownership rates were considerably lower.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba1.jpg">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba1.jpg" alt=""> 
In particular, notes the RBA, home ownership rates in metropolitan regions were typically very low until the 1950s.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba2.jpg" alt=""> 
 
Home ownership rates in Australia today are fairly high compared to most of the world, and a little higher than those in several of the other most comparable countries.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba3.jpg" alt=""> 
Age of home ownership
The data compiled by the RBA does show that the share of home-owning households in the 25-34 age bracket has declined over the past quarter of a century since 1980.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba4.jpg" alt="">
In part, this has been due to higher house prices, although the RBA also notes that people are doing most things later than they used to. For example, the median age of first marriage for women in 1974 was just 20.9 years.
There have also been a number of other significant demographic shifts according to the RBA, including higher divorce rates and an increase in the number of single-parent households.
The submission spent some time musing over the complex relationship between housing affordability and home ownership, where all is not quite as clear as it initially might seem.
For example, as the above chart shows, much of the decline in home ownership rates between the ages of 25 and 34 took place in the early 1980s, before the run-up in house prices, rather than after it.
Furthermore, in a curiously reflexive manner home ownership rates can oftentimes be lower in more affordable locations, with Queensland and South Australia having the lowest home ownership rates of the Australian states. 
Another point raised by the RBA which is rarely discussed is that for some people renting makes more sense at certain points in their lives, particularly given the increased mobility of the modern labour force and the heavy transaction costs involved in buying and selling property.
The submission also spent some time looking at the composition of net immigration, including the projected surge in student arrivals. New South Wales and Victoria receive a disproportionate share of foreign students, with more than two-thirds of student migrants heading to those states (and to Sydney and Melbourne in particular).
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/students.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/students.jpg" alt="">
 
Mortgage serviceability and the deposit hurdle
Demand for housing was boosted for property in the 15 years or so to 2005 by financial deregulation and the structural shift to low interest rates, notes the RBA.
Thanks primarily low mortgage rates, initial repayments on new housing loans as a share of household disposable income are presently significantly lower than they have been, and are hovering well below the decade average.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba5.jpg" alt=""> 
 
The flip side to this is that rising house prices may require a higher deposit. It's also worth noting that households with two incomes today clearly have a significant advantage over those with a solitary income earner.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/rba6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/07/21/rba6.jpg" alt="">
However, the RBA does point out that 20 per cent deposits are no longer a requirement for first time buyers, where a 5 or 10 per cent deposit can often suffice:
"The maximum loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) available in the Australian mortgage market has increased noticeably over recent decades, from the 80 per cent typical in the pre-deregulation period to around 95 per cent at present. 
Equivalently, the deposit required of a first home buyer is no longer necessarily around 20 per cent of the purchase price, but rather, more often in the 5–10 per cent range.
This shift would have eased the accessibility constraint imposed by the deposit requirement more than would be apparent from a simple comparison of a fixed percentage of the median purchase price over time.”
In a discussion which is overwhelmingly dominated by generalisations it's inevitably tough to avoid generalising, but there's no doubt that housing markets close to the centre of Sydney have unsurprisingly become very expensive, with the population of the harbour city imminently set to surge past 5 million.
Though I don't follow the Melbourne market closely, I assume that inner city Melbourne presents similar dynamics.
The RBA submission implies that with a 5 per cent deposit requirement, areas further from the city are likely to present a more realistic entry point for first time buyers. 
Unfortunately many first-time buyers in Sydney are not so keen on living in the more affordable areas such as Blacktown or the Canterbury-Bankstown region.
Based on the limited sample of first-time buyers I come into contact with, many prefer to buy an investment property in a so-termed "secondary location" and rent somewhere closer to the city themselves.
"Be careful what you pray for..."
Probably the most significant part of the RBA submission for my money was the section noting that there are "no examples of large falls in nominal house prices" either in Australia or overseas without there being significant reduction in the capacity to pay (which generally means very high interest rates, a deep recession or high rates of unemployment):
"There are no examples internationally of large falls in nominal housing prices that have occurred other than through significant reduction in capacity to pay (e.g. recession and high unemployment). 
There is no mechanism to get a large and sustained level shift down in prices while a substantial fraction of the population can – safely and sustainably – service the obligations involved in paying the higher price.“
This echoes closely what housing economist Michael Oxley argued in London back in 2004. While an increase in the supply of dwellings is both necessary and desirable, this alone will not cause a material correction in house prices while the capacity for households to repay existing mortgage debt remains comfortable. 
In larger cities, where only a small percentage of the housing stock is new in any given year, this is even more so the case.
This suggests that the risks of a material housing market correction are considerably higher in smaller cities and towns where unemployment rates are elevated - or at risk of becoming so - and where the new supply of dwellings as a percentage of existing stock can be higher.
Tax legislation
While the Pavlovian response in the media headlines called for a review of "negative gearing" legislation, what the submission really appears to be hinting at is a review of the way in which tax deductions on interest repayment interact with the capital gains tax discount in order to encourage property investment.
The RBA notes that tax legislation also to some extent favours owner-occupiers since capital gains are tax free and there is no taxation on imputed rent - although there are no deduction on owner-occupier mortgage repayments in Australia.
Recent data suggests quite clearly that a greater number of Australians are leaning towards buying property as an investment rather than as a home.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/HF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/HF3.jpg" alt="">
 
While unsurprisingly and perhaps reassuringly the greater share of household debt is held by those who can afford it - higher than average income earners - equally the evidence that wealthy Australians are "rorting" negative gearing through residential property as a tax shelter seems rather sketchy.
More than 90 per cent of those using negative gearing deductions are claiming deductions on only one or two investment properties - and nearly three quarters of them are claiming on just one.
As such, if the wealthy citizens of Australia are trying to rort this so-called "tax shelter" that is the prevailing tax legislation, they don't seem to be doing so very effectively.
Realistically, most genuinely wealthy Australians have better things to do with their money than rack up net rental losses through negatively gearing investments in the cottage industry that is property investment.
Noted the RBA:
"The ability to deduct legitimate expenses incurred in the course of earning income is an important principle in Australia’s taxation system, and interest payments are no exception to this. 
To the extent that negative gearing induces landlords to accept a lower rental yield than otherwise (at least while continued capital gains are expected), it may be helpful for housing affordability for tenants".
Sydney boom
Finally, the RBA submission somewhat unsuccessfully attempted to divert some attention away from the booming Sydney property market through suggesting that the ratio of house prices in Sydney to those in other capital cities is merely reverting to trend.
<a href="/images/2015/07/21/sydney.jpg" target="_blank"> Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/21/sydney.jpg" alt="">
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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RBA submits on home ownership: Pete Wargent

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The strong capital gains evident across the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have created a significant boost in wealth for home owners who were fortunate enough to own a property through the latest growth cycles.
However, the rate of capital gain has been remarkably lower across other markets with home owners outside of Sydney and Melbourne now seeing far less accrued equity from their housing assets.
On the flipside, there are also those housing markets where dwelling values have fallen, particularly in areas associated with the mining sector where a larger proportion of properties in these regions are now worth less than their original purchase price.
The wealth effect analysis measures two aspects of wealth accumulation via the housing sector: what proportion of dwellings are now worth double their purchase price and what proportion are worth at least 10% less than their purchase price.
Proportion of properties worth at least double their purchase price
Nationally, the proportion of dwellings where the value of the property is at least double the purchase price has slipped over the past decade falling from 45.4% of dwellings in 2007 to 39.1% in 2017.
The slippage is evident across regions outside of Sydney and Melbourne where capital gain conditions have been much softer over the past decade.
The proportion is highest in Sydney, where 48.1% of dwellings are now worth at least double what their owners paid for them; ten years ago the proportion was much lower at 37.2% Melbourne follows close behind with 47.3% of dwellings worth at least twice what their owners paid (up from 38.1% ten years ago).
The remaining capital cities show a much lower proportion of dwellings that are worth at least double their purchase price, ranging from 25.9% of dwellings in Darwin to 37.4% in Hobart.
Across the broad ‘rest of state’ markets outside of the capitals, regional Victoria stands out as showing the highest proportion of properties worth at least double the purchase price at 40.8%, followed by regional Western Australia at 34.8%.
The high proportion of properties worth at least double their purchase price across regional WA may come as a surprise, given the weak performance of the housing market across this region over the past five years, however a decade ago the proportion was substantially higher at 60.8%.
Proportion of properties worth at least 10% less than their purchase price
Over the past decade, the proportion of properties valued at less than 10% of their purchase price has risen slightly from 3.2% to 3.4% between 2007 and 2017.
The national figures hide a significant difference between the major regions of the country. The highest proportion of dwellings worth at least 10% less than their purchase price can be found in regional Western Australia, at 17.8%. Darwin (15.1%), Perth (11.1%) and regional Queensland (11.0%) have also recorded a significant proportion of dwellings where values have slipped more than 10% below the purchase price.
Ten years ago only, while the mining boom was in its early stages, regional Western Australia and Perth were recording the lowest proportion of dwellings where the value was more than 10% lower than the purchase price. In 2007 only 1.1% of Perth properties and 2.3% of regional Western Australian properties fit this profile.
The lowest proportion of dwellings with a valuation more than 10% lower than the purchase price can be found in Sydney (0.7%) and Melbourne (2.1%). Ten years ago, 7.1% of Sydney dwellings recorded a valuation that was more than 10% less than the purchase price, highlighting the effect of strong capital gains post GFC.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2010.09.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-28%20at%2010.09.26%20AM.png" alt="">
Drilling down to the suburb level, it is clear how hard mining towns have been hit. The Bowen Basin town of Dysart tops the list with 65.7% of dwellings showing a valuation that is at least 10% lower than the purchase price. Queensland’s Gladstone Central is close behind at 64.2% followed by South Hedland in the Pilbara region of Western Australia at 64.0%.
The good news for many mining regions is that housing market conditions seem to be moving through the bottom of their cycle.
Transaction numbers are generally rising and advertised stock levels are reducing which should help to promote some value recovery in these regions.
As growth eases across Sydney and, to a lesser extent Melbourne, we may start to see a slow reversal of these trends.
It will be harder to double the value of a property in Sydney and Melbourne after such a sustained period of high capital gains, however markets such as Hobart and Canberra, which have gathered some momentum, are likely to see home owners benefit from improved capital gains that is likely to boost their overall wealth profile.
Similarly, the worst appears to have past across the mining sector, although it is likely to take many years before property values recover to their previous highs in many of these regions.
TIM LAWLESS heads up the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/"> here.</a>
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The wealth effect of housing

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We’re now seeing home sales trend below $400,000 which is making it much harder for price-sensitive buyers to purchase into capital city markets.
37.4% of all home sales nationally were at less than $400,000 compared to 52.0% between $400,000 and $1 million and 10.6% over $1 million over the 12 months to June 2015. 
Sales below $400,000 were at a record low over the past year and sales above $1 million were at a record high.
<a href="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.35.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.35.28%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Across capital cities, 25.1% of home sales were under $400,000, 60.1% were between $400,000 and $1 million and 14.8% were in excess of $1 million. 
Twenty years ago 95.2% of all capital city houses and 96.7% of units sold for less than $400,000. Meanwhile, only 0.4% of all houses and 0.3% of all units sold transacted for more than $1 million.
<a href="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.37.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.37.04%20AM.png" alt="">
 
 
Ten years ago, the proportion of sales under $400,000 had fallen sharply relative to 10 years earlier. At this time, 66.2% of houses and 73.8% of units had sold over the year for less than $400,000. In comparison, 4.0% of houses and 2.3% of units across the capital cities sold for more than $1 million. 
Five years ago, around one third of all capital city house sales (34.1%) and 46.4% of units sold for less than $400,000. At the same time, 10.1% of capital city houses and 3.8% of units sold for more than $1 million.
<a href="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.38.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/27/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-27%20at%2011.38.05%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Looking at the activity over the past year: 
Canberra (7.4%) and Sydney (7.8%) recorded the lowest proportion of house sales under $400,000. 
Hobart (61.2%) was the only city to have more than half of all house sales below $400,000. 
Currently, the unit market offers more opportunity to purchase below $400,000 however, each of Sydney (16.3%), Melbourne (35.9%), Perth (38.5%), Darwin (29.7%) and Canberra (43.3%) recorded a majority of unit sales above this price point. 
CoreLogic RP Data reported a record high proportion of houses and units sold for more than $1 million over the past 12 months. In Sydney, more than a third of all houses (36.8%) sold for more than $1 million. Melbourne had the second highest proportion of sales over $1 million (17.7%). 
Although Melbourne had a record high proportion of houses sold over $1 million it was less than half the proportion of sales in excess of $1 million recorded in Sydney. 
For units, Sydney had the highest proportion of sales over $1 million (11.6%) and was the only capital city in which more than 10% of unit sales were in excess of $1 million. In fact, Sydney had a higher proportion of unit sales over $1 million than each of Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra had for houses. 
Although we anticipate that the rate of capital growth will slow over the coming year we still expect values to generally rise. As a result we would expect a further decline in the proportion of homes selling below $400,000. 
 
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Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Home sales trend below $400,000: Cameron Kusher

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Current seemingly high rates of home ownership in Australia are masking a long-term problem of serious housing inequality between older and younger generations and between wealthier and poorer households, new AHURI research reveals.
The research, ‘Australian home ownership: past reflections, future directions’, undertaken for AHURI by researchers from Swinburne University of Technology examines the growth of home ownership and its tenure dominance in Australia after the Second World War, together with its fading, most notably for younger households (ages 25–44) over the last four decades.
While Australia’s overall home ownership rate appears to have held up well—it was 68 per cent in 1976 and 67 per cent in 2016—the rate is projected to decline to around 63 per cent for all households by 2040, and to 51 per cent for households in the 25–55 age bracket, down from 60 per cent in 1981.
‘A housing system in which one half—predominantly older homeowners—acquires wealth and the other half—generally younger renters—doesn’t, is a recipe for long-term social problems’ says lead researcher Professor Terry Burke of the Swinburne University of Technology.
The research suggests that while no single policy failure, single political decision or single market or state failure has eroded the ability to achieve the ownership dream, the change has come from complex shifts throughout the entire institutional environment.
While weakening affordability has been an important factor in this erosion, other factors should not be neglected including an increase in casualised employment, a financial and tax environment favouring rental investors, the emergence of new housing products largely designed for rental living, the inability of housing supply to match population and household growth, and the financialisaton of housing.
‘Broadly, Australia now has an institutional environment which no longer supports ownership as it did in the past,’ says Professor Burke. ‘This means the housing system will become more inequitable irrespective of what incremental housing policy reforms are made. Given this, we have to rethink what sort of housing system is appropriate for Australia’s future.’
‘Either we embrace fundamental and broad-based reforms to rebuild ownership or we accept a retreat from its historical dominance, moving to a system which has more balance between rental and ownership—what we can call a dual tenure system.’
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Falling house prices unlikely to increase home ownership: AHURI

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The private rental sector has expanded at <a href="/news">more than twice the rate</a> of the increase in Australian households in the last two decades. This <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036096.2018.1467964" target="_blank">increasingly diverse form of tenure</a> now houses about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/4130.0%7E2017-18%7EMedia%20Release%7EMore%20households%20renting%20as%20home%20ownership%20falls%20(Media%20Release)%7E10" target="_blank">one in four of us</a>.
Australia’s <a href="/news">lightly regulated private rental sector</a> means the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1440783317707833?journalCode=josb" target="_blank">insecurity of tenants</a> is a key factor in why most Australians <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/federal-budget-2017/2017-05-07/housing-affordability-australia-statistics-federal-budget-2017/8502106" target="_blank">aspire to own their home</a>. However, despite this insecurity, our <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036096.2018.1467964" target="_blank">research</a> suggests an increase in people choosing to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2017.1301400" target="_blank">rent for a long time</a> – ten years or more – accounts for a small part of the growth in private renters.
Much of this growth is attributable to <a href="/news">middle- and high-income tenants</a>. Especially in Melbourne and Sydney, <a href="https://localgovernmentandhousingproject.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/iuhf-journal-summer2018_alan_morris.pdf" target="_blank">high housing prices</a> mean saving for a deposit takes much <a href="https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1ZatPa3iM8ech/" target="_blank">longer than in the 1990s</a>. In the meantime these households are renting <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2017.1301400" target="_blank">for a long time</a>.
‘Who stays put, loses’
In our survey of 600 private renters in different areas of Sydney and Melbourne, we asked: “Many people are renting privately for longer periods (10+ years). Do you think this is a positive trend?”
About a third responded in mainly positive terms. Their main reasons were:
1. renting is more affordable than ownin
2. there are fewer worries and liabilities
3. renting is more flexible than owning.
Some questioned the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14036096.2018.1467964" target="_blank">norm of home ownership in Australia</a>.
For a more in-depth understanding, we interviewed 60 long-term private renters in low, medium and high-rent areas in Melbourne and Sydney. Almost all who chose to rent mentioned flexibility as a key advantage.
“Choosers” highly valued the freedom to move or travel at will. Zygmunt Bauman’s concept of <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Liquid+Modernity-p-9780745624099" target="_blank">liquid modernity</a> highlights the increasing desire for transience. As he <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=zZwvv3tQ1UYC&amp;pg=PT95&amp;lpg=PT95&amp;dq=Transience+has+replaced+durability&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=VbuUO62ZhV&amp;sig=ACfU3U32LtxCmjxJfboinOrMwt706zkAVw&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjP4_qby7vnAhXwwzgGHYJXDagQ6AEwAHoECAYQAQ#v=onepage&amp;q=Transience%20has%20replaced%20durability&amp;f=false" target="_blank">explains</a>:
Transience has replaced durability at the top of the value table. What is valued today (by choice as much as by unchosen necessity) is the ability to be on the move, to travel light and at short notice. Power is measured by the speed with which responsibilities can be escaped. Who accelerates, wins; who stays put, loses.
Renters in their own words
Patricia*, who lives in a high-rent part of Melbourne, has always rented.
Well since I came to Australia in 1977, I rented. I didn’t want to buy. Got close [to buying] a couple of times, but changed my mind.
I just travel anywhere and everywhere. I thought […] if you’ve got a house you’re stuck there, and I thought, no. I work hard for my money, so that money that I work hard for is for me, not to have a [permanent] roof over my head. […] Renting has been good for me because I can still do what I want.
Myra lives in a studio apartment in a high-rent area in Sydney and has no desire to own a home. She is single, in her mid- to late 30s, and earns well. The possibility of being asked to vacate did not bother her.
Maybe I’ve been lucky, but every situation has always sorted itself out. You know a lot of people would have freaked out if they had to move out […] It didn’t concern me in the slightest, yeah. I mean not at all. There’s always somewhere to stay. So it suits my lifestyle. I wouldn’t want to buy [a property], even if I had the money.
Leanne inherited a third of a house. Rather than using the proceeds to buy a property, she decided to move to Melbourne’s inner city (a high-rent area) and continue renting.
So I thought rather than put money into a house […] I would invest it and I could travel and go to concerts and live the life I wanted to lead, so that’s basically what I did and I’m still renting.
Pam was renting in a low-rent area in outer Sydney. She felt her situation required the flexibility of renting:
The relationship was rocky and you can’t predict the future, but I knew it wasn’t going to end up in marriage and kids and all that kind of crap […] We were both working, both earning good money and we could have afforded to buy a house between us […] But for me it was like, no. I don’t know where this [her relationship] is going, so no way, I’m not going to put myself in that predicament [having a joint mortgage] and then have to go through court to go, “This is mine, this is yours”, all that crap. But so it was my choice to rent and to stick to it […] I’m not going to rely on anybody else for anything, no way.
Her renter status allowed Pam to make a rapid, clean break.
I just got up one day and walked cos I knew he was going to ask me to marry him the next day, so I said: “I’m just going to go to the shops to get a packet of cigarettes.” I left everything behind. I went for a walk, never went home.
For the families with children who choose to rent long-term, the key reason is it allows them to live in highly desirable areas where they cannot afford to buy. Gabrielle and her partner earn well and live in a high-rent area in Sydney:
Sure it [home ownership] provides you with security and you don’t have that stress of […] having to move. I get that, but at the same time, you know for us, for example, if we wanted to buy we’d be paying four times what we pay at the moment in a mortgage […] It doesn’t really make financial sense to go and do that […] You’d have to live somewhere. So I choose to live in a nice area where my children are [at school].
They also did not want the burden of a large mortgage:
[…] I have no desire to put myself in a position where I have a $2 million mortgage and have to work for the rest of my short life to pay for it […]
Although probably only a small proportion of people choose to rent long-term, this option may be gaining ground. Young, well-paid professionals in particular see the flexibility of private renting as attractive.
Location also seems to be a critical factor. Most of the choosers rented in desirable inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, which would otherwise be inaccessible. An estimated <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2014.925097" target="_blank">one-in-eight private renters</a> are “rentvestors” who rent where they want to live and buy elsewhere to get a foothold in the housing market.
*All names used are pseudonyms.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130696/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alan-morris-13337" target="_blank">Alan Morris</a>, Research Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969">Hal Pawson</a>, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kath-hulse-228874" target="_blank">Kath Hulse</a>, Research Professor, Centre for Urban Transitions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767" target="_blank">Swinburne University of Technology</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-wouldnt-want-to-buy-even-if-i-had-the-money-the-rise-of-renters-by-choice-130696" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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'I wouldn’t want to buy even if I had the money.' The rise of renters by choice

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The Members Equity Bank's findings from its fourth Quarterly Property Sentiment Report reveals that the rising house prices are yet to crush the home ownership dreams of First home buyers.
The survey of 1,000 Australians in the property market took place in at the start of the month - the first quarter of 2020. 
Compared to the second quarter of 2019 where only 38 per cent of FHBs intended on buying property, FHBs' hopes of breaking into the market have jumped dramatically with 51 per cent of FHBs planning to buy property in the next 12 months. 
ME’s general manager Andrew Bartolo said, “Rising property prices carry the risk of squeezing first-home buyers out of the market, however they also signal a healthier market that presents a worthwhile long-term investment. 
“In the case of FHBs, the recent property price recovery has likely nudged them to get in while they can – as though it’s ‘now or never’ – and has created a sense of FOMO.
“Low interest rates and commentary in the market for the support of FHBs may have also contributed to an increase in home-buying intentions.” 
Over half predict house prices will continue climbing.
Recent property prices across Australia’s key property markets aren’t expected to halt any time soon, according to Australians in the property market. 
55 per cent of respondents expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. This is a massive leap from the mere 38 per cent who predicted price rises in the third quarter of 2019 when the market first began to turn. 
Strong house value growth is predicted by Victorians more than any other state, with 67 per cent of Victorian respondents predicting prices to go up. This is a 10 percentage point jump from last quarter’s prediction, and a 34 percentage point jump from their prediction for the second quarter of 2019.
All other major cities had a more optimistic outlook on prices than last quarter, including WA where more were predicting price falls than rises in the last quarter.
Positive house price expectations were seen across owner occupiers, FHBs and investors. 
Overall property market sentiment improves.
The report shows sentiment towards the property market has improved for the third quarter in a row, increasing to net positive 21 per cent. This is 3 percentage points up from the fourth quarter in 2019, and up 14 percentage points from the second quarter in 2019 when the report first started.
“Considering a combination of market factors including the buzz of home value growth, a solid spring selling season, plus rate cuts and signs from the RBA that rates will stay lower for longer, it’s no surprise overall property sentiment has improved,” said Bartolo. 
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Investor optimism has dipped slightly and is now on par with that of owner occupiers, as rising prices present a potential barrier to this cohort. 
Spending habits take another hit.
ME’s report revealed price positivity and overall market sentiment isn’t flowing through to spending habits. 
Recent property price movements have negatively impacted ‘willingness to spend on discretionary items’ for another quarter in a row. It remains the only area of personal finances that has stayed net negatively impacted - sliding deeper from net negative three per cent to net negative eight per cent over the past quarter. 
All other areas of personal finances analysed such as sense of wealth, financial confidence, savings behaviour and debt situation, remain net positively impacted by recent price movements. 
“Despite market positivity and a stronger sense of wealth, there’s less willingness to spend on discretionary items – a trend that bucks the wealth effect theory. Much broader economic dynamics are obviously at play,” said Bartolo. 
Growing optimism eases financial worries, but affordability remains an issue 
Growing optimism over the past quarter has eased most financial worries, but housing affordability still tops the list. 
Ninety-two per cent of respondents agree that ‘housing affordability is a big issue in Australia’, up from 89 per cent in the forth quarter of 2019. 
ME’s report explored level of personal worry towards affordability, as well as acknowledgement of the issue, for the first time and found net 14 per cent agree with the statement ‘I’m worried about property becoming unaffordable’ – making it the top worry. 
All other perceived worries in ME’s report have eased to the lowest point since the survey began in the second quarter of 2019. 
Tight credit policies are becoming less of a concern with only net six per cent agreeing it’s a worry, which is down from net agree 16 per cent last quarter. 
Concern over negative equity has dropped dramatically to net disagree 34 per cent, from net disagree 12 per cent last quarter. Likewise, worry about being forced to switch to interest only payments also slid to net disagree 30 per cent from net disagree 12 per cent last quarter.
Not enough choice in the market 
The report also compared the perception of choice in the property market. Forty-six per cent of respondents believe there is not enough choice, with this figure jumping to 57 per cent among FHBs. 
“Housing supply has picked up slightly, but with prices rising and demand outweighing supply, there’s no wonder that almost 1 in 2 Aussies don’t think there’s enough choice available,” said Bartolo. 
“With so many FHBs planning to buy in 2020, yet most stating choice in the market is a barrier, addressing this issue should be a focus in the year ahead.” 
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Rising prices yet to crush first home buyers ownership dreams in 2020: ME Bank

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Today, Stockland Research reveals that, as we enter the new decade, purchasing property is top of mind for Australians. The results also show that there is a strong desire for more social connectivity and sustainable home features becoming standard.
Stockland's 2020 property survey has shown that Australians are heading into the new decade with a positive outlook on home ownership with over 40 per cent planning to buy their own property in the next five to ten years. 93 per cent of purchases are expected to be made by those under 35 years old. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/1/20/7_STOCKLAND%20HOME%20BUY.jpg" alt="" width="593" height="360">
People are willing to look further afield with 36 per cent of those surveyed considering moving interstate, and 44 per cent respondents in New South Wales specifically entertaining the idea of crossing borders. Amongst these respondents, the main reason for considering this move include for better lifestyle, 57 per cent; better job opportunities, 42 per cent; and to buy the home you want for less, 32 per cent. 
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"It's great to see that home ownership remains a key goal for Australians with many starting 2020 with increasing optimism around achieving this" says Stephanie Vainin, general manager residential sales at Stockland. "Purchasing your own home is still seen as a sense of security for many Australians and this won't change anytime soon.
"The way in which Australians want to live will continue to evolve in 2020 and beyond with many considering that interstate move now more than ever, and an increased demand for features that encourage personal connectivity to communities and improved health and wellbeing." 
Over 60 per cent of Australians would forgo a traditional backyard for a small home with less outdoor space if it meant they were more connected to neighbours and close to community parks and green spaces. 
Survey respondents top features for a dream community of the future also included more walking paths community gardens and recreation spaces and fewer roads.
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Ms Vanin explains, "With 24/7 technological connectivity and busy lives, people and increasingly looking for low-maintenance homes located within communities that offer great amenity, social connectivity and physical closeness with their neighbours and wide community. 
"The actual home is still important, however, features that allow for more community living are shifting higher and higher on homeowners' priority lists. That old sense of belonging and knowing your neighbours is more important than ever before." 
Results show that Australians will be even more environmentally conscious this decade with over half, 54 per cent, of the survey respondents stating sustainable and environmental home features are more important to them than they were ten years ago, and 22 per cent stating the purchase of ethical and sustainable items for their home are important. 
A quarter of the respondents also stated they would specifically like automated recycling in their future home, with those over 55 years old the most excited about the prospect. 
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"Buyers are much more attuned to the benefits of sustainable home design today than they were a decade ago. The costs of many features such as LED lighting and solar panels are also much more affordable today and buyers now understand the long terms cost benefits of these features for future energy savings to them and the broader benefits to the environment," notes Ms Vanin
This week, Stockland has launched its <a href="https://www.stockland.com.au/start" target="_blank">2020 residential summer campaign</a>. The campaign is built upon the idea that "A day can change a decade" and by taking a step into the home buying journey today, you can set yourself up for the whole decade ahead. 
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How will Australians live over the next decade, Stockland Research

66% of non home owner millenials plan to buy property within 5 years: Gateway Bank

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Home owners are holding onto their property for much longer than they were 10 to 15 years ago.
Based on the findings from the CoreLogic May 2019 sales data (the most up to date data), the average hold period has consistently increased since 2005 across both house and units nationally.
Nationally, the average length of home ownership currently sits at 11.3 years for houses and 9.6 years for units, this is an increase of 3.8 years for houses and 2.9 years for units over the past 10 years. (Note: The average hold period figure is based on sales from the past year, using the latest sold date and the previous sold date to establish how many years a property has been held for between each transaction.)
Across the individual capital cities, the average hold period of both houses and units rose over the last 10 years, 5 years and current year, with houses being held longer relative to units across all capital cities.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%201.JPG" alt="">
Melbourne houses recorded the longest period of ownership over the last year at an average of 12.5 years
Perth units recorded the longest average hold period of 10.8 years.
Darwin houses are typically being held for 9.2 years
Canberra units are held on average for 8.7 years; the shortest average hold period across the capital cities.
Compared to ten years ago, Sydney recorded the longest average hold periods for both houses and units at 9 and 7.3 years respectively, since then Melbourne houses have consistently seen the longest hold period, while results have been varied across the unit market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%202.JPG" alt="">
Regional Victoria and Queensland represented the areas with the longest average hold periods across regional Australia, with houses across both regions currently being held on average 11.1 years, while units in regional WA are being held the longest at 10.2 years.
The Northern Territory rest of state region currently has the shortest average hold period at 8.9 years for houses and 8 years for units.
The council areas with the longest average hold period for houses was dominated by regions within Melbourne, Sydney and regional Queensland. Houses in Monash Victoria came in with the longest average hold period at 17.1 years.
While for units, Perth makes up eight of the 20 council regions with the longest hold periods. Armadale (WA) and Swan Hill (Vic) both recorded an equal average hold period of 13.4 years for units.
The East Pilbara council region tops both the house and unit list for the shortest average hold period, with houses currently being held for 7.7 years, while units across the region are being held by half the duration at 3.8 years.
The remaining regions on the ‘houses held’ list are comprised by mostly regional parts of the country as home owners are evidently more likely to sell across these regions compared to their capital city counterpart. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%203.JPG" alt="">
Interestingly, the shortest average hold period list for units is dominated by Melbourne with 6 of the 20 council regions making up the unit list. The data suggest that home owners are much more reluctant to sell their property than they were a decade ago which is also highlighted by the ongoing decline in sales transactions.
Other factors at play include: the rising cost of selling and purchasing property, combined with affordability constraints across some Australia’s more expensive capital cities contribute to owners holding onto their properties longer.
It’s expected that this trend will continue over the coming years given such concerns aren’t likely to see much improvement in the near future.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%204.JPG" alt="">
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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