Highrise

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">Dwelling approvals dropped 8.7 percent in Sep, larger than the market expectation of a 3 percent fall but within the range of ‘normal’ volatility for month to month reads.</div>
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<div class="column">The detail shows a sharp 16.3 percent drop in units was the main driver in the month – with-in this segment the ‘usual culprit’ when there is volatility - high rise approvals – was down just over 20 percent in the month but down only slightly on a year ago, reflecting the high starting point following a big surge in July. Even with a dip last month, August was the fourth highest reading on record.</div>
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<div class="column">Outside of ‘high rise’ the monthly moves were mixed but mostly hint at an underlying trend softening. Private sector house approvals were up 2.3% but ‘mid-rise’ were down over 10 percent. The combined picture from ‘non high rise’ approvals now show a trend decline for six consecutive months tracking at a 10-15 percent annual pace. The state detail shows this coming through across all the main states – a more convincing though still tentative sign of a broad underlying slowdown.</div>
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<br>The signal from ‘high rise’ remains much less conclusive – despite the latest monthly drop it is unclear whether the segment is levelling out or turning down with approvals uneven across the major states as well (up strongly on a year ago for NSW but lacking a clear direction in Vic and Qld).</div>
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<br>The value of renovation approvals declined 2.2 percent to be down 10.6 percent/yr, pointing to a clear softening heading into year end after strong gains in the first half of 2016.</div>
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<br>The value of non res building approvals spiked sharply in Sep (+119 percent!). The gain came from a mix of retail, office, hotels and entertainment &amp; recreation buildings – the breadth of the gain a promising sign that it may not be just a 'one-off'. State-wise, all of the gain is coming from NSW and Vic.</div>
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<br>Overall, the update provides more tentative evidence of an underlying slowdown in non high rise dwelling approvals but the picture on high rise remains very uncertain. The mix still looks relatively constructive for new dwelling construction in 2017 – when the continued ramp up in apartment work looks set to more than offset the slowdown in other segments. The near term path of high rise approvals is more critical for activity in 2018.</div>
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<div class="column">The September pull back in this segments falls well short of a decisive signal – it would take similar-sized moves in the next few months to signal the sort of 'break out' weakening that would indicate a sharp wind down in high rise activity is on the way. </div>
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<div class="column"><em><span>Matthew Hassan</span> is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></div>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

High rise approvals drop after July surge: Matthew Hassan

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<p>It’s danger time for investors tempted to buy high-rise apartments on the Gold Coast. </p>
<p>There are few entities more skilled in the art of seduction than the Gold Coast propaganda machine. </p>
<p>What makes it doubly dangerous is that the Gold Coast can spin a pretty plausible story right now, as long as it ignores its appalling record on capital growth.</p>
<p>There’s the high level of spending on infrastructure. There’s the billions that corporations, both Australian and foreign, want to throw at casinos, resort hotels, cruise ship terminals and mega high-rise apartment blocks. There’s the marketing appeal of the 2018 Commonwealth Games.</p>
<p>Marketers can pull together some credible-sounding data which suggests that the oversupply of the past has been soaked up and that markets are growing again.</p>
<p>The marketing machine will have little trouble mounting a case that the market is beyond recovery and is rising rapidly. And there is no shortage of gun-for-hire companies purporting to be independent and willing to make a statistics-based case for the viability of all those new mega towers.</p>
<p>Last week a report claiming the Gold Coast will need another 133 apartment towers just to cope with the impending population boom got widespread media coverage. It’s amazing how readily media will take a piece of crystal-ball-gazing and turn it into fact for consumption by a gullible public.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>A bullish and self-serving forecast was converted into a statement that the population <span>will</span> jump 76% in the next 20 years. And “many of those people <span>will</span> need to be housed in high-rise apartments” and the population growth <span>will</span> “mean demand for 156,000 new dwellings to cope with the influx”.</p>
<p>I wonder how many investors will pause to consider the outcome if those predictions are wide of the mark. Population projections are never accurate. Even in the short periods between the official census counts, government and private sector population estimates are shown to be faulty, and sometimes wildly inaccurate.</p>
<p>Property investors are essentially herd animals and the impulse to follow the pack as it starts to stampede towards the latest Gold Coast mirage will be irresistible for many. The FOMO Syndrome will drive too many to pay too much for generic high-rise dwellings in an oversupplied market and spend the next five to ten years regretting it.</p>
<p>It’s all happened many times before on the Gold Coast. But investors seldom learn the lessons of history, in some cases because they are blissfully ignorant of it.</p>
<p>They need to know that the Gold Coast has not yet fully emerged from the most recent glut of high-rise apartments, one that has taken six years to absorb. In that time property values have gone backwards in all the major high-rise suburbs – and are still in reverse.</p>
<p>Two major research sources – Australian Property Monitors and the Real Estate Institute of Queensland – confirm that the median prices for apartments Surfers Paradise, Main Beach, Broadbeach and Southport remain significantly lower than they were five years ago.</p>
<p>And prices are still falling. In the past 12 months, prices have fallen further in Surfers Paradise (down 2.9%), Main Beach (down 4.1%) and Southport (down 4.3%). </p>
<p>In the cases of both Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, apartments are worth less today than they were in 2005. For both Main Beach and Southport, prices are still at the same levels as 10 years ago. The investors who bought in these locations a decade ago have had no capital growth at all. How many markets can you say that about?</p>
<p>In Surfers Paradise, prices fell in the past three months, the past 12 months ago, the past three years, the past five years and the past 10 years. Not a single growth figure to be found. Of all the big-name markets around Australia, perhaps only Noosa on the Sunshine Coast is a bigger dud.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Those who bought in the Gold Coast high-rise markets five years ago have lost a lot of money. In Main Beach, the median unit price has dropped from $652,000 in 2010 to $561,000 today. The average punter is $91,000 worse off. There are similar results for Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach and Southport.</p>
<p>And it’s all about to happen all over again. Only this time, the outcomes will be worse, because the towers being built are larger and more numerous.</p>
<p>For investors who are susceptible to a strong marketing pitch, it’s time to be afraid, be very afraid.</p>
<p><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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Beware the Gold Coast propaganda machine: Terry Ryder

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<p>A charge of $900 per dwelling for new Hoddle Grid residential towers has been passed unanimously by the Melbourne City Council as they look to fund necessary infrastructure for an expected population surge.</p>
<p>The charge is to create a $26.5 million fund for public infrastructure needed for the expected 14,200 new residents by 2031.</p>
<p>However, it’s less certain who will be footing the bill.</p>
<p>While they are more officially called ‘developer contributions’ Fairfax Media reported that Melbourne lord mayor Robert Doyle said it is a charge that will be simply passed straight on to the purchasers of the residential units.</p>
<p>The levy will be regardless of when applications were lodged and will come into existence from next month.</p>
<p>With 25,210 residents, according to Robyn Hellman, actring manager strategic planning in the Report to the Future Melbourne (Planning) Committee, the area is rapidly growing with 9,547 new dwellings expected in 2031. This required 3,792 square metres of new community infrastructure.</p>
<p>The report notes that a $900 levy would be a “modest impost” on development, and in conjunction with the proposed open space contribution it would total $3,800 on a $500,000 apartment, or 0.76% of the value.</p>
<p>It notes that this is comparable with Central Sydney’s 1% levies. Brisbane has similar levies and in Victoria the City of Moreland collects an average of $800 per dwelling, while the City of Darebin collects an average of $851 per dwelling.</p>
<p>The maximum under the Act for this levy is $900, though it’s noted that to reach the infrastructure contribution it would likely need to be $1,659.12.</p>
<p>Another 5,260 apartments are currently under consideration for approval, and are likely subject to the levy.</p>
<p>From 1 July 2015, the state government is looking to introduce a standard infrastructure levy of $4,500 per dwelling.</p>
<p>“However the mechanisms for its application have not been defined. While the Hoddle Grid appears to fit the criteria for an SDA, this has not yet been determined by the State Government,” the report notes.</p>
<p>The report also suggests strongly considering the Hoddle Grid as a State Development Area.</p>
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Melbourne City Council highrise apartment tax sparks debate

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<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released the quarterly building activity data for December 2018.</p>
<p>The release is a treasure-trove of data and includes information on dwelling commencements, dwelling completions, dwellings under construction and dwellings approved for construction but not commenced.</p>
<p>This release has published very valuable data on the number of units commenced by the number of storeys.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_001.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_001.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><em>Source: CoreLogic, ABS</em></p>
<p>In terms of dwelling commencements, there was a significant slowdown over the quarter. In fact, house starts fell 7.6% over the quarter to their lowest level (27,088) since March 2017.</p>
<p>Unit commencements recorded a much larger -26.8% decline to 19,134 commencements, the fewest over a quarter since September 2013 and the largest quarterly decline in commencements since September 1974 when they fell -32.5%.</p>
<p>Despite the falls, both house and unit commencements remain above their long-term average.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_002.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_002.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><em>Source: CoreLogic, ABS</em></p>
<p>The most notable change in the landscape of dwelling commencements over recent years has been the lift in apartment starts and more recently their fall.</p>
<p>The increase in higher density construction has primarily been driven by the three most populous states, or more specifically, the capital cities of each of those states.</p>
<p>Over the past five years, every state and territory has seen unit commencements reach historic high levels, demonstrating a clear shift towards higher density development (that isn’t to say that detached housing construction hasn’t also climbed significantly over the period).</p>
<p>More recently, as the housing market has turned and values have started to fall we can see there is a reduced preparedness of developers to commence new projects.</p>
<p>We would expect that commencements, particularly for units, are likely to continue to trend lower over the coming quarters as housing values continue to record value falls, finance remains tight, and both domestic and foreign investors remain light on the ground.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_003.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</em></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/19/Blog_003.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><em>Source: CoreLogic, ABS</em></p>
<p>In the latest building activity release the ABS published a further breakdown of annual unit commencements by the height of the building.</p>
<p>While the number of commencements has climbed significantly over recent years, it is interesting to note that commencements of units in a one to three storey block has been relatively steady.</p>
<p>Anecdotally, the demand/supply ratio of medium density dwellings remains much healthier relative to high density products.</p>
<p>Conversely, there has been significant increases in commencements of taller buildings over recent years with commencements now beginning to ease.</p>
<p>This reflects both the unit construction boom and also the fact that as the cost of acquiring sites has increased developers have sought approvals for taller buildings in an effort to maximise their yield and to recoup acquisition costs and maximise profits.</p>
<p>With dwelling commencements expected to continue to fall, the decline doesn’t negate the fact that many developers have paid high prices to acquire sites.</p>
<p>As a result we would expect that despite an expectation of fewer commencements going forward, those projects that do commence will largely be taller apartment projects.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding that expectation, larger projects are generally riskier for the developer and achieving sufficient presales to commence a project is more of a challenge when there are more units to sell.</p>
<p>In order to maintain profitability of projects it is highly likely that as values continue to decline that dwelling commencements will continue to fall.</p>
<p><em><strong>CAMERON KUSHER</strong> is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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The increasing prevalence of highrise construction: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Dwelling approvals jumped 19.1% in Feb driven by a big spike in high rise approvals.</p>
<p>The spike is almost certainly a one-off making the headline result a misleading 'rogue'. Indeed, approvals ex high rise look to have been significantly weaker than expected. The consensus forecast going into the release was for total approvals to decline 1.8%. Approvals ex high rise instead look to have fallen 3.4%.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The detail showed a 3.6% fall in detached house approvals in the month, the 3 month rolling average down 4% on Nov and 10.9%yr, the significant deterioration since mid 2018 clearly carrying into early 2019. Around units, our estimates suggest 'high rise' approvals jumped 135% in the month, led by spectacular rises in NSW (+130% month) and Vic (+213%) the latter coming from an extreme low in Jan.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The fact that both states recorded big gains indicates the spike is not due to just a single project. However, the gain comes very much against the run of play for housing and this specific segment and runs counter to the evidence we have around site purchases. As such it is almost certainly a 'rogye' result. Medium density units were down about 2.4% in the month.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The high rise spike dominated the state breakdown, with big gains in NSW and Vic. Ex high rise, approvals look to have been particularly weak in NSW with apparent declines in Vic and WA as well but a solid gain in Qld. All major states are seeing significant declines in non high rise approvals – on a rolling 3mth basis, NSW is down 14.5%yr, Vic is down 12.6%yr, Qld is down 22%yr and WA is down 13.2%yr.</p>
<p>The total value of renovation approvals rose 4.4%mth to be up 3.6% on a rolling 3mth average basis, with a decent uptrend in place. The state detail shows solid gains coming through in Qld and WA but a less convincing uptrend in NSW and Vic.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%205.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The total value of non res building approvals rose 2.1%mth but is still down 8%yr on a rolling 3mth basis. Abstracting from monthly volatility, which is never that easy for this segment, the last few months has shown some lift in offices and steady reads for retail, warehouses and industrial approvals but softer reads for hotels, education, health and other social sectors.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Overall the monthly rise in total dwelling approvals should clearly be ignored – Australia's high rise building boom is not about to reignite any time soon, with the key takeaway instead the more disappointing momentum evident in non high rise approvals.</p>
<p>Other housing market indicators have hinted at some stabilisation in conditions in recent weeks, although the evidence remains only tentative. The flow through to new construction could be much slower given funding difficulties and the substantial increases in new supply coming through.</p>
<p><em><strong>MATTHEW HASSAN</strong> is a Senior Economist for Westpac</em></p>
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Dwelling approvals spike is a rogue one: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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<p class="legacy">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Implosion is the most dramatic way of demolishing a building but it’s also the most wasteful and hazardous.</p>
<p>We are entering a new world where skyscrapers and other huge buildings are becoming redundant and need significant overhaul or replacement. The process is called unbuilding or, if you’re a bit highfalutin, deconstruction.</p>
<p>These so-called <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/spreadsheets-in-the-sky-are-putting-melbourne-s-liveability-at-risk-20191203-p53gek" target="_blank">spreadsheet towers</a> populate every major city. They signalled modernity and provided huge profits for those who built them. But these buildings are <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">profligate users of fuels</a> for light, power and services.</p>
<p>Most developed world cities started building skyscrapers after the second world war. These buildings were <a href="https://www.britannica.com/art/International-Style-architecture" target="_blank">International Style</a> architecture, unrecognisable is terms of a particular locale, universal in terms of their ubiquitous metal, concrete, glass – and fully air-conditioned. Now they are ageing, their use-by date is up and their balance sheet profitability no longer attracts.</p>
<p><strong>The challenges of demolition and reuse</strong></p>
<p>The question is: how do we safely dismantle these high-rise structures, which are generally located in busy cities?</p>
<p>Reminders of the dangers of explosive demolition are tragedies such as the <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6030620/katie-benders-family-commemorate-20-years-since-royal-canberra-hospital-implosion/" target="_blank">death of 12-year-old Katie Bender</a>. She was struck by flying debris when the Royal Canberra Hospital was razed in 1997 to make way for the new National Museum of Australia.</p>
<p>A recent demolition, and the <a href="https://www.archdaily.com/889563/soms-iconic-270-park-avenue-at-risk-of-becoming-the-largest-building-ever-to-be-demolished">tallest ever to be unbuilt</a>, is 270 Park Avenue, New York City (pictured). Its 52 floors were built in 1960 for the Union Carbide chemical company. The building was for 50 years the tallest ever designed by a female architect (Natalie de Bios of Skidmore, Owings and Merrill. Is that another low hit for gender equality?) Its replacement by architects Norman Foster will be <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">twice as high</a>.</p>
<p>The business of disassembling these skyscrapers is just now developing, but it will gain pace as more become obsolete.</p>
<p>Some still get imploded, but usually, in a busy city, demolition techniques must be unobtrusive, as quiet and clean as possible. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780865476752">techniques used for cleaning up the World Trade Centre</a> testify to the wastefulness of a more destructive approach.</p>
<p><strong>So how best to demolish a high-rise building?</strong></p>
<p>Plenty of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/18/science/tricky-ways-to-pull-down-a-skyscraper">clever techniques to demolish</a> exist. Some start at the base and work up, others in reverse.</p>
<p>The 40-storey Akasaka Prince Hotel in Tokyo was slowly <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1160452/eco-friendly-japanese-demolition-scheme-slashes-dust-and-noise">demolished in 2012-13</a> using a technique where a cap was built on top of the building. It was stripped floor by floor as the cap was lowered, so all the dust, mess and debris was contained and removed with no effect on the environment.</p>
<p>Buildings are wrapped in scaffold and protective fabric then literally dismantled in the reverse order to which they were built. In the process building waste can be recycled and reused rather than dumped.</p>
<p>Reverse building involves removing the glass, then the frames, taking off the wall cladding, then scraping away at the concrete and steel frames bit by bit. Concrete is removed to expose the steel reinforcing bars, which are then separately removed and recycled. In the process unwanted material can be uncovered, like asbestos, which needs particular care in handling.</p>
<p>Interiors are unbuilt the same way – remove floor coverings, cupboards, doors and lightweight walls, strip the electrical wiring and pipes, take out air conditioning and lifts, remove stairs and escalators.</p>
<p>These removalists act smartly, as materials and fabric are recycled and often reused for another building. It is a sustainable way of dealing with the issue. Things that might normally have been reduced to dust and mud by destruction are instead usefully salvaged and recovered for an extended life cycle.</p>
<p>As part of the benefits of this procedure, unbuilding provides <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/Publications/PDF/deconstruct.pdf">large numbers of construction jobs and associated employment</a> in transportation, waste management and recycling.</p>
<p>It also provides new construction sites. This means cities need not expand beyond existing boundaries and the infrastructure of services, roads and public transport need not be extended.</p>
<p><strong>Building with an eye to unbuilding</strong></p>
<p>What has interested those involved with this work is the capacity of building designers (let’s call them architects) to creatively improve their buildings in terms of life after use-by date. Techniques are being developed that assist in unbuilding and salvaging materials, even down to basic principles such as ease of access to pipes and wires, modular components and simplified connection practices.</p>
<p>The logic is that clarity of building structure and services makes retrieval simpler. Less complexity of materials and components means a building can be untangled more efficiently.</p>
<p>Fastening devices can be simplified and mechanical (rather than using glues and sealants), toxic materials avoided, materials selected with an afterlife in mind and structures designed for simplicity and accessibility. Also important is a clear set of as-built documents that map the original building so it can be disassembled.</p>
<p>Clear design thinking will have value for unbuilding and recycling in the future.</p>
<p><strong>Making construction more sustainable</strong></p>
<p>The construction industry is a main consumer of fuels, timber, steel and other metals, concrete and plastics. That demand drives the logging of forests, mining and extraction, leading to material production and transport that contributes to emissions and pollution.</p>
<p>The UK Green Building Council <a href="https://www.ukgbc.org/climate-change/">estimates</a> the construction industry generates about 22% of UK carbon emissions, uses 40% of drinking water, contributes 50% to climate change and over half our landfill waste, and accounts for 39% of global energy use. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also <a href="https://archive.epa.gov/greenbuilding/web/pdf/gbstats.pdf">reports</a> that the industry contributes to asthma and lung cancer by producing radon via contaminated applied finishes (paint).</p>
<p>Driving the need for much greater reuse of old building materials is an awareness of the fragility of our resources and the energy we use to consume them.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129002/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/norman-day-228477">Norman Day</a>, Lecturer in Architecture, Practice and Design, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/swinburne-university-of-technology-767">Swinburne University of Technology</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/unbuilding-cities-as-high-rises-reach-their-use-by-date-129002">original article</a>.</em></p>
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