Herron Todd White

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The financial viability and challenging Australian climate have forced some long-standing grazing models to evolve in the Darling Downs region, and, therefore impacted the property market, according to the latest rural report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
A transition towards trading cattle is expected to allow greater turnover and spreading cash flow, however the report found that the recent spike in cattle prices has created some anxious caution in the market.
“Where we are also seeing some conservative buying despite ability to run higher numbers but in some cases trying to spread risk through providing agistment on surplus country,” the firm said.
The rural market in south-east Queensland is starting to witness a slight increase in the number of listings on the back of much needed rain after prolonged drought.
“We are expecting the strong demand to continue as any potential purchasers prior to the rain would view assets more favourably now that they have the ability to stock,” the firm added. At this stage the continued strong demand will likely create a firming in values in the short term until supply equalises buyer demand particularly for grazing assets.
The broadacre farming market has seen unprecedented level of buyer demand, especially towards the back end of 2019, when the drought was impacting on market confidence and, despite the rain, cash flow won’t exist until crops are harvested.
As we are seeing the country go into lock down due to the Coronavirus, this will have an impact on many business and financial markets. To a large degree, the agricultural sector has been insulated from its effects to date, however the ability to source fertilisers, chemicals, parts, labour etc will likely be affected at some stage.
Further risk will also be created by any uncertainty in the financial markets, which will ultimately have the potential to create low investor confidence.
“On the upside, agricultural investments will likely be viewed more positively by investors seeking tangible assets underpinned by the world still needing to feed itself,” the firm added.
A recent pending sale north-east of Dalby, comprising Bottle Tree softwood scrub merging to Ironbark grazing block was placed under contract following three inspections within the first week of listing and reflected circa $5,100 per hectare excluding structures.
The pending sale reflects the continued strong demand evident in the market for smaller scale assets.
Further west near Roma, the market remains strong with the sale of Iona, a 1,543 hectare holding south of Wallumbilla for $6.4 million ($4,148 per acre) to a neighbour at auction.
The full “Month-in-Review” Herron Todd White report for April can be found <a href="https://static.htw.com.au/HTW-month-in-review-April-2020-Rural.pdf" target="_blank">here.</a>
Note regarding COVID-19
 
This edition of Month In Review had its topic defined in late February with submissions from our offices collated through to late March. During this period, shifts in the social and economic landscape due to COVID-19 became increasingly dramatic, as demonstrated by the varied information provided by offices over the course of three weeks.
 
This month’s residential theme on baseline property market drivers remains a common thread, and provides an indication of what influences to monitor as the property sector recovers post-crisis.
 
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Darling Downs region marred by "anxious caution" but slowly gaining ground: HTW rural

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The Sunshine Coast’s population is ageing, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
ABS statistics show that 42 percent of the population is between 40 and 70 years old.
The March report found that the impact that this population segment is having on the market is sizeable.
“Then throw in the empty nesters and this downsizer market grows even more. This market is pretty clear about what it wants. They don’t want the hassle of looking after large homes and yards. They want the flexibility of being able to socialise with friends, play golf, go fishing and travel,” the report continues.
“The biggest change we have seen has been lot sizes and densities in new estates on the eastern side of the highway close to the coast.”
Sales specifically of new allotments of less than 450 square metres have grown to almost 60 percent of all new allotments sold during 2017-18.
These changes are reflected by the average size of new vacant residential allotments sold reducing from 824 square metres in 1998-99 to 467 square metres in 2017-18.
This has not only benefited downsizers, but the improvement in affordability has helped with buyers entering the market.
“These small lots have produced some really efficient home design with some great spaces,” the report added.
Master bedrooms to the ground floor and provisions for passenger lifts or even installing them have become serious options for two level homes as has just building a smaller single level, according to the report.
When looking at units, one of the biggest demand segments for existing or new units is larger permanent occupancy style apartments.
Permanent occupancy style product has become increasingly popular as they are typically located in close proximity to the coast, close to cafes and restaurants with two car basement parking.
“When we move towards the older established coastal areas, densities have changed by the growing presence of duplexes and infill townhouse developments. These 600 plus square metre sites are effectively being split into small lot housing with results being similar to the smaller lots found in estates. As the coast continues to grow, we will continue to see these demographic forces,” the report concluded.
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Sunshine Coast home to ageing population; Herron Todd White

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The northern Gold Coast corridor and lower Logan corridors have seen rapid growth over the past ten years, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“This area is popular with local and interstate investors as well as owner-occupiers. There are a number of developing residential developments scattered throughout this area and you will find the typical home is owned by a mixture of first home buyers and young families,” the March report found.
“When it comes to local buyers, common boxes they are looking to tick include proximity to public transport, shopping facilities, affordability and locations within good school catchment areas.”
This would explain why Upper Coomera and surrounds have experienced fairly consistent growth over the years. We noticed a subsidence in the market at the beginning of 2019, however during the second half of 2019 to now, this market demonstrated both increase in demand and values,” the report continued.  
A property at 18 Aviation Drive, Upper Coomera comprises a neat, 14-year-old, modern style, four-bedroom, two-bathroom rendered brick and tile dwelling with double garage and transacted in January 2020 for $505,000.
This showed strong growth from the previous sale of $468,000 in August 2018 with only solar panels and fencing upgrades to the property.
The lower-western Logan corridor originally comprised of mostly rural residential housing, however over the past ten years there has been average to good quality medium density housing developments beginning to dominate a number of these suburbs.
Some of the more significant developing residential estates include Flagstone, Yarrabilba, Brookhaven, Pebble Creek and Riverton.
These new housing developments have caused significant change to these suburbs and have resulted in construction of new infrastructure, schools and shopping facilities throughout the region.
South Maclean is an established rural residential locality of circa 700 properties predominantly improved with semi-modern acreage homes.
More recently, construction has begun on the medium density residential estate known as Pebble Creek.
On completion, Pebble Creek will comprise 14 stages with a total of 650 small lots ranging between 280 and 500 square metres in addition to a large $3 million park.
The project was released in late 2019 and at present 32 lots have sold with circa 90% sold to owner-occupiers.
“We have been advised that the majority of sales have been to local buyers, consisting of a mix of first home buyers, young families and retirees downsizing or coming off acreage,” the report said of the project.  
The report concluded that the combination of low interest rates, government incentives and affordable house and land packages in these areas creates a perfect opportunity for first home buyers as well as families looking to make a switch from acreage lifestyle or even the city life.
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Gold Coast north and north-west see rapid growth in last 10 years; Herron Todd White

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The western Gold Coast and Scenic Rim localities comprise a wide mix of demographics across a multitude of different property types, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“From established dwellings in residential estates close to the M1 to rural residential allotments in the hinterland and further out over the range, these market segments have proven to be popular choices for a variety of lifestyles,” the March report found.
On the back of lower interest rates coming into effect throughout 2019, the beginning of 2020 saw the federal government introduce a home loan deposit scheme with approved first home buyers requiring a five percent deposit but avoiding paying lender’s mortgage insurance.
 “This has resulted in an increase in first home buyers in the western Gold Coast suburbs such as Nerang, Pacific Pines and Oxenford and further west in the established Scenic Rim suburb of Canungra,” the report continued.
“Generally, these buyers are seeking established dwellings, townhouses or duplexes in a range of conditions, some having the prospect of renovating. In particular, Nerang has seen a higher influx of these kinds of buyers due to its affordability as well as its proximity to amenities, schools and major transport routes. This has resulted in a large number of original style dwellings becoming refurbished in recent times to modern standards.”
“Tamborine Mountain has seen steady growth in the past year and is proving to be a popular locality with the demographic consisting mostly of families and retirees. In more recent times, we have seen a surge in property sales on the mountain with dual living configuration, offering owner-occupiers the potential for supplementary income from dwellings with attached or detached granny flats and secondary dwellings.”
With the suburb being a popular tourist destination, these types of dual accommodation properties are best suited for Airbnb style short term holiday rentals but can also offer permanent rentals which normally tend to attract students or young couples.
The Scenic Rim covers an expansive area to the west of the Gold Coast hinterland comprising mainly rural residential properties with the popular township of Beaudesert being centrally located.
These properties are a lifestyle choice with the present demographic mostly consisting of middle-aged men and women and also families who are looking for land to use as a hobby farm or for equine purposes.
“There is a mix of dwelling types on these properties with the majority being older Queenslander style homes, however as more families are moving into these regional areas, we are seeing a larger amount of new modern dwellings being built and this will continue over the short to medium term,” the report concluded.
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Gold Coast's west home to wide mix of demographics and multitude of property types; Herron Todd White

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In the Gold Coast north-east area - from Southport to Hope Island and out to the M1 - buyer profiles have changed along with the changing market conditions, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“As the Gold Coast north-east is an established area, the typical buyer profile currently comprises first time buyers, upgraders and investors. Coming into the back end of 2019, we saw an increase in market confidence that resulted in an increase in buyer activity for established dwellings in areas such as Helensvale, Runaway Bay, Labrador, Southport, Arundel, Molendinar and Parkwood,” the March report found.
“This buyer activity was shared between first home buyers, downsizers and upgraders, with investors slowly returning to the market in late 2019 and early 2020.”
“A lot of the activity has come in the middle to lower end of the dwelling market, being sub-$800,000, which has traditionally seen a higher turnover of stock due to the affordability range for all buyer profiles.”
“Whilst there hasn’t been any noticeable increase in values in the areas over the past 12 months, due to the May election and the banking Royal Commission, there has been a number of opportunistic buyers who believe the market has bottomed.”
“As mentioned, people renovating to sell are slowly re-entering the market, however profit margins are tight. For example, a small one-bedroom unit in Labrador was purchased in August 2019 for $175,000, renovated and then sold in February 2020 for $219,000,” the report continued.
After taking into account the cost of the renovation, interest expense, stamp duty, legal fees, body corporate payments and agent’s fees, the net profit appears to be minimal.
In regard to the $800,000 plus end of the residential market, we are still seeing interstate investors buying property as an investment, with the reported intention of moving from Sydney and Melbourne to live in the future as they still see the Gold Coast as good value compared to their home states, however they are competing against a slowly growing number of local upgraders looking for value.
The report adds that downsizers are only a small portion of the market as people are choosing to stay in the family home for comfort, rather than move to high density living.
“Conversations with downsizers indicate an initial shock due to the close proximity of neighbours, however this is later tempered by the reduced level of maintenance, increased security and the ability to lock up the unit and travel.”
“We do caution downsizers to take care with unit selection as units continue to perform poorly in the Gold Coast north-east region due to inflated off the plan purchase prices.”
The report concludes that, overall, the start of 2020 has seen a lot more buyer activity with the value of sold properties appearing to be reasonable.
This increase in buyer activity is a sign of increased demand, which in turn is expected to lead to a steady increase in values over time.
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Gold Coast north-east sees changes in buyer profiles and market conditions; Herron Todd White

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The Mackay residential market has a good mix of home owners and potential purchasers, with no real defined trend among different demographics, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“We do have three broad market types though, comprising lower level which predominantly is sub- $300,000 to $350,000, middle markets which are between $400,000 and $700,000 and the prestige market which is $700,000 and above,” the firm found in their March report.
“Within the lower level, we are seeing a significant increase in first home buyers entering the market, with local lenders and agents reporting most activity in this price bracket. This can be attributed to a number of reasons. For example, Mackay underwent a significant downturn between 2013 and 2017, in which market values fell 20 to 30 percent. This fall in value has created relative affordability in the Mackay market that was not prevalent in years gone by.”
One negative effect from the downturn that has affected first home buyers is the tougher lending criteria by banks and coupled with the Banking Royal Commission, this has put far greater tests on borrowers, particularly with deposits.
This has made it far more difficult for first home buyers to save deposits for middle markets and therefore they are choosing the lower level market.
Those who have been able to save larger deposits have definitely taken advantage of the first home owner’s building boost and built new dwellings usually in the $450,000 to $500,000 price range.
The middle markets have also been active in Mackay over the past two years.
The main purchasers in this price bracket are upgraders and new residents moving to Mackay, usually established families, according to the report.
“Prior to the downturn, Mackay had a reputation as being a mining town with affordability and cost of living being a big hindrance to non-mine related employees,” it continued.
“That has definitely changed, with Mackay now back on the radar for teachers, police, ambulance, firefighters and other occupations who previously may have avoided Mackay.”
The only downside to this market segment is that the median price of dwellings fell by around $100,000, with some falls higher within this price bracket.
That erosion of equity has limited the ability of some who purchased at the peak of the market to sell their existing homes.
The last market segment is the prestige market which has also seen good activity over the past two years. “Again, this comes down to affordability and the fact that the majority of prestige dwellings selling in Mackay are usually below replacement cost, offering good value for money for those able to afford them,” the report found.
“Purchasers in this market are usually good middle-income upgraders as well as other professionals who waited during the downturn until values stabilised and have now entered the market.”
“Construction of large executive and architect designed dwellings has also increased over the past two years on the back of renewed confidence in the Mackay economy,” the report concluded.
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Mackay residential market has mix of home owners and potential purchasers; Herron Todd White

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The Gold Coast's south region has a particularly wide range of typical buyers, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“First home buyers are generally found in suburbs such as Varsity Lakes and Robina,” the March report continued.
Upgraders are generally found in Palm Beach, Tugun and Currumbin where the price levels are higher and houses are larger.
Families are generally located within Robina, Varsity Lakes and Palm Beach which are all located close to great amenities, and retirees and downsizers are mainly found in Miami and Palm Beach.
“The main changes happening in this area is that many of the rundown or original homes are being purchased by young people who renovate and then put the home on the market to be purchased by families who do not wish to do renovation works.”
The houses are being bought from retirees and downsizers who then generally purchase new unit stock along the coastline.
This puts pressure on first home buyers as prices have increased and it is very hard to enter the market in the majority of suburbs except for one-bedroom units, or two- and three- bedroom units and townhouses.
Areas such as Varsity Lakes have been de-commissioned which has seen the purchase of ex-commission housing for renovation and on-sale for good profit which makes the Mattocks and Varsity Lakes area a more sought-after location.
Palm Beach and Elanora have also seen a massive re-gentrification over the past ten years.
These suburbs were once not sought after at all and are now highly sought after.
The southern Gold Coast and northern New South Wales localities generally attract traditional families, retirees or young couples.
Hardly any of the properties within the locality are co-owned between friends or comprise multi-generational living. House design is becoming more modern however the layout of homes is remaining pretty much the same as it has over the past five years.
The report concluded that the tram being expected to go to the airport over the next ten years will be the biggest factor in this area, however noted that no other facilities or services have been established purely on societal gentrification.
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Gold Coast's south region home to unusually diverse buyer demographics; Herron Todd White

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Rockhampton homes vary greatly from pre-1900s Queenslanders right through to your modern estate built brick homes, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“Typically, the older established areas such as Wandal, The Range and Allenstown in the south and Berserker, Park Avenue and Koongal on the north side comprise high set timber and fibro homes, mostly being built between 1930 and 1975,” the March report found.
"After this, the 1980s through to the early 2000s suburbs such as Frenchville, Norman Gardens and Kawana experienced expansion in the form of single and two-level brick homes."
“As to buyer profiles, there has never been a defined trend amongst the various buyer types as most categories have been spread across these areas.”
“It should be noted however that in more recent years many of the first home owners have been attracted to new housing estates in suburbs such as Gracemere, Parkhurst and Norman Gardens, taking advantage of the government grants and financial benefits on offer.”
The older suburbs however can in many cases offer much lower entry level prices which can also be attractive.
The last decade has seen a large number of first home owners buying and upgrading albeit some choose to renovate or extend their existing homes.
In summary, the report concluded, it is difficult to foresee any major changes in these buyer profiles moving forward and a sporadic spread is the best way to sum up where different types of home owners are operating.
“Whether it be upgraders, downsizers, retirees, family buyers or first home owners, all of these various profiles are operating within the various suburbs discussed above.”
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Rockhampton seeing no defined trend amongst buyer types; Herron Todd White

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Hervey Bay has a good mix of purchasers across most asset classes, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
The entry level range sub-$350,000 appeals to first home owners and downsizers, the March report found.
These homes are generally smaller three-or four-bedroom properties.
“This asset class also appeals to investors as gross returns can be upwards of five percent in some cases. Mid-range property up to $600,000 comprises a broad range from residential houses, acreage or even small scale rural lifestyle blocks,” the firm continued.
“This market is also a mix of owners and investors.”
Homes are generally larger and ancillary improvements become more extensive.
$600,000 to $800,000 sees predominantly owner-occupiers in the Dundowran Beach, Craignish and Wondunna acreage locations. Again, these are large homes with extensive ancillary improvements.
This range is also the base level entry for Esplanade homes along the Hervey Bay foreshore.
“Prestige homes above $800,000 are generally found along the Esplanade in Hervey Bay and this is an owner-occupier market.
“Although the buyer profile has not changed, there appears to be more confidence in this market sector over the past 12 months which is encouraging for the area. Another market that has continued to gain momentum over the past 12 months is the RV park owner with a number of complexes currently under construction in Hervey Bay,” the report concluded.
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Hervey Bay sees wide mix of purchasers across asset classes; Herron Todd White

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Mildura’s official population growth - estimated to be approximately one percent per annum - appears to come from a variety of sources, according to a recent report from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
“There has always been a steady migration of people from surrounding towns and rural areas to Mildura, attracted by work opportunities and the amenities that our relatively large regional centre provides,” the March report found.
“Most of the people moving to Mildura do so with the intention of buying a house and this has contributed to strong demand for better quality family homes in the $350,000 to $500,000 price bracket. The growth in this segment has been reflected by strong demand for land in new subdivisions, which we expect will continue.”
The report also found, however, that there are a significant number of retirees moving to Mildura, which when combined with a general increase in life expectancy is contributing to an ageing population.
“Older buyers tend to be attracted to modern homes on smaller land parcels, which has contributed to a rise in the number of smaller townhouse type developments closer to the CBD.”
“The houses they replace were usually old and poorly designed and so this rejuvenation has been viewed positively.”
Over the past ten years, there has been a rapid expansion in the area of labour-intensive horticultural crops grown in the Mildura region, particularly table grapes.
This growth has drawn a large number of casual workers who then find accommodation wherever they can, contributing to a shortage of cheaper rental accommodation options.
“Accessing loans to buy homes will not be an option for many of these seasonal workers, who are then reliant on being able to access affordable rental properties,” the report concluded.
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