Growth

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<div>The ABS will soon release its latest dwelling prices data for Q2 2015, which is always an interesting series to analyse.</div>
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<div>Market forecasts are calling for a +2.4% gain on a national basis, with Sydney driving most of the gains.</div>
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<div>Westpac is looking for an even more bullish +4% which would take annual price growth all the way up to +9.1%.</div>
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<div>The data series also provides some interesting data on dwelling supply. </div>
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<div>Of course, the ABS series lags somewhat, but it is worth noting that CoreLogic RP Data's Daily Home Value Index is no longer a sea of green, with prices now down for the quarter and for the year in both Adelaide and Perth.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/09/22/RPD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/09/22/RPD.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>Home values are also declining in Darwin.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Dwelling prices update due: Pete Wargent

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Cities are ever changing environments that are continuously evolving and they reflect the varied and always developing needs of the population.
The complexity of the population is naturally reflected in the make-up of the housing market and while fashions change, our underlying housing preferences appear to be somewhat more rigid than might be expected. And so the question will always be – are we matching demand and how we market to this audience? 
It appears that at times we have a disconnection between where we live and where we would like to live. Work, family, finances and lifestyle balance all play their part, alongside our national, still very dominant desire to have our own homes. This area is still driven by emotion and aspiration. There’s a lot of emotion in almost all parts of the housing market and the desire for homeownership is also closely tied to a feeling of achievement, personal growth and self-worth.
In almost any casual conversation we are often asked, where do you live? And where do you work and what do you do? Where we live in particular is very much seen as part of who we are, and so the character of the housing market is a constant source of fascination.
A Large House Near The City
In research published by the Grattan Institute, a large house near the city was seen as the most desirable goal for many people, but the actual structure of our housing market is somewhat different.
Homeownership is falling, and the numbers of people renting is on the rise. Both trends were evident. When measured in the last census in 2011, homeowners (either owned or with a mortgage) was around 67%, and rental accommodation sat around 29.6%, but the falling trend among homeowners has been constant and was closer to 75% in the 1960’s.
At the same time rents and mortgage repayments have been on the constant increase, and one particular measure remains on an upward trend and that’s the number of households where rent or mortgage payments are taking more than 30% of incomes, with rents at 10.4% and mortgage loan repayments at 9.9%. It’s a trend that the 2016 census is bound to see continue as house prices have increased over recent years.
There’s also a link between the size of families and their incomes and the ability to buy a home. Couples and sole parents with children account for 60.5% of households with both parents being employed either full or part-time making up 25.4%, with only 15.7% being households with just one parent working full-time, and even less with one parent in part-time employment at just 5.4% supporting the household.
Most of Us Still Live in Detached Homes
Where we live and the impact that has on household size and the importance of location also shows some related trends. As the figures above might help reinforce, families are more concerned about the size of a home.
The split is currently 75.6% living in detached homes, but that figure is gradually falling, 9.9% then live in semi-detached and 13.6% in apartments, with both are on an upward trend. The fall in the numbers of people living in detached homes is shown by the fact that in 1976 the figure stood at 78%, and while the decline is not huge, it’s now a constant trend and may well be more marked with recent trends towards the popularity of apartments.
What is somewhat a surprise is that evidence points to the popularity and demand for medium density housing, in reality the supply of semi-detached homes and townhouses has been falling way behind demand. Medium density sits somewhere between high-rise apartment living and the larger more traditional detached home and this would help explain, not surprisingly why these homes are so popular. And when it comes to size, we see that 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom homes together account for 73.9% of housing stock, with the demand for 4-bedroom homes on the increase.
When Location Is Key
While for families home size and the number of bedrooms are the most important factors, location is much more important as we get older and it’s also the same for singles.
While families are concerned about house size, as we get older we look for closer connections to work, being closer to family and facilities like transport, and the same goes for singles as they look for wider community connections. For these groups a central or CBD location and all that it entails is driving demand and pushing prices as sites are absorbed.
Then we also find that across all groups affordability always comes into the picture. This will then influence size, condition, access to transport and the key suburbs people are most attracted to. Our housing preferences are well-established but changing.
However as is clearly demonstrated by some of the shortages being experienced in Sydney, meeting all aspects of household demand isn’t easy. There are many layers that add time, cost and complexity to meeting demand. Finding suitable sites in very popular areas, the time to deliver the finished projects, planning delays and the costs involved will explain why in some markets demand is not being met.
Demand is being seen from the inner-city to major new growth regions on the city fringe. Then some housing preferences, like the demand for more mid-range medium density housing may be falling short. There’s a fine balance between location, cost and size that all buyers have to navigate when making a choice of where to live, and prices are reflecting the key areas of demand.
Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Where we like to live: Peter Chittenden

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Brisbane’s market has been busy recently, without delivering strong capital growth. It has in common with most of the nation’s capital cities a reluctance to join Sydney in a property boom.
It’s overdue for a period of growth because it’s been an under-achiever in the recent past. It ranks fifth among the eight state and territory capitals for long-term capital growth, well behind (in order of ranking) Perth, Melbourne, Darwin and Sydney.
Based on Domain figures for the average annual growth in median prices over the past 10 years, the top 20 suburbs in Perth all have growth rates between 9% and 10% per year. Brisbane’s top 20, bar one, are between 6% and 7% per year.
Brisbane averages have been dragged down by poor performance in the past four years. City markets took time to recover from the floods of early 2011. In the years since, Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne have all had periods of price growth ranging from solid to strong, but Brisbane has yet to join the growth party.
Parts of the Brisbane metropolitan area have out-performed, but the average citywide performance has been lukewarm.
Looking at the figures describing growth rates for the past 10 years, Brisbane currently has only one suburb with a growth rate above 7% (Hendra, which averages 7.6%). All of the other Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates between 6.0% and 6.9%. 
The leading precinct is Brisbane Northside – the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area – which provides the top four suburbs and six of the top 10. This area is prominent in terms of capital growth rates because it led the upturn in sales activity in the city market in 2013 and 2014 – and many suburbs have recorded double-digit annual price growth in the past 12 months, lifting their long-term growth rates.
The Brisbane Northside suburbs, and indeed most of the suburbs on the Top 20 list, represent Brisbane’s middle market. The 12 most expensive suburbs in the Brisbane region have median house prices in the range from $900,000 to $1.2 million. The middle market is the next tier below that – and that’s the market that leads on capital growth rates.
All but one of the Top 20 have median prices below $900,000. Fourteen of the Top 20 have median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. There are currently no bottom-end suburbs on the list – only two have medians below $600,000. 
I expect a different result a year from now, as many of the cheaper markets are now rising across the Brisbane metropolitan area and are likely to experience good price growth, lifting their long-term growth rates.
Brisbane’s most expensive suburbs have been mediocre performers – only one of the 12 priciest suburbs features on the Top 20 list for capital growth rates. Only four of them have capital growth rates above 6%.
The worst performing precinct has been the Moreton Bay Regional Council area in the far north of the Greater Brisbane area. Seven of the Bottom 20 suburbs are located there. This may change in the near future, as this precinct is one of the areas with elevated sales activity, as the momentum ripples out from the neighbouring Brisbane Northside precinct.
BRISBANE TOP 20 – ANNUAL GROWTH % OVER 10 YEARS
<table style="height: 293px; width: 392px;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
No.
</td>
<td valign="middle">
SUBURB
</td>
<td valign="middle">
MUNICIPALITY
</td>
<td valign="middle">
  MEDIAN
</td>
<td valign="middle">
GROWTH RATE %
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
1
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Hendra
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $815,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    7.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
2
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Newmarket
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $740,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
3
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Gordon Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $700,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
4
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Northgate
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $610,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
5
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Paddington
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-Inner
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $865,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
6
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Cannon Hill
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $705,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
7
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Lutwyche
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $697,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
8
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Doolandella
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $460,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
9
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Gaythorne
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $618,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
10
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Bardon
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-West
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $840,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
11
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Fig Tree Pocket
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-West
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $934,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
12
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Holland Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $619,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
13
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Woolloongabba
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-Inner
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $645,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
14
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Camp Hill
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $748,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
15
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Fairfield
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $678,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
16
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Upper Mt Gravatt
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $550,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
17
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Albion
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $687,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
18
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Eight Mile Plains
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $619,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
19
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Norman Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $760,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
20
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Seven Hills
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $618,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
 
 
 
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Top 20 Brisbane growth suburbs of the decade: Terry Ryder

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Amid media’s multiple orgasms over Sydney price rises, the factor overlooked is how poorly the city had performed on capital growth in the decade before its belated resurgence. 
Hotspotting’s latest survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report shows that Sydney still ranks only fourth among the capital cities for long-term capital growth. Perth is No.1, marginally ahead of Melbourne and Darwin.
Perth’s market peaked in the middle of 2013 and been gradually subsiding since then – but, in terms of long-term growth rates, it still has more suburbs with strong growth averages than any other capital city. All but one of the Perth Top 20 average above 9% per year (which means property doubles in value every eight years).
The recent Sydney boom has elevated the city from 6th late in 2014 to 4th in mid-2015 – an improvement, but still mediocre for long-term growth. Fourteen of Sydney’s Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates below 8% - not nearly good enough to make the Top 20 lists for Melbourne, Perth or Darwin.
No suburb in the vast Sydney metropolitan area has a double-digit growth rate. The best is Pemulwuy (median price $720,000) in the city’s western suburbs, with a long-term growth rate of 9.5% per year. Most of the suburbs in the Top 20 have growth rates in the 7.0% to 8.0% range.
At first glance, it appears that the Top End suburbs dominate Sydney’s Top 20 list, as 19 of the Top 20 (all except Pemulwuy) have median prices above $1 million. But, in fact, these are mostly suburbs a tier below the Top End.  
In Sydney, the 15 most expensive suburbs all have median house prices above $2 million. None of the 20 most expensive suburbs (all with median prices above $1.9 million) make the Sydney’s Top 20 list for long-term capital growth. Most of them have growth rates below 5% per year.
Sydney’s Top 20 is dominated by 15 suburbs in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, which is Sydney’s second tier market.
This factor is common to most of the capital cities. Most of the Top 20 lists, including those in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, are dominated by the middle market. The exception is Perth, where the cheaper end of the market fills most of the spaces on the Top 20 list. 
In Sydney, the outstanding precinct is the Ryde LGA on the lower North Shore, which has four suburbs in the city Top 20. Ryde is the only municipality with more than two suburbs in the Top 20. Its four top suburbs are Eastwood, Ryde, Denistone East and West Ryde, all with median prices in the $1.1 million to $1.3 million range.
The prestige end of the market, suburbs with median house prices above $2 million, continues to deliver poor capital growth rates. Indeed, three of the most expensive suburbs of Sydney are included in the Bottom 20 list of suburbs with the worst growth rates in the city.
Vaucluse (median $3.4 million), Palm Beach ($2.6 million) and Clontarf ($2.5 million) all have growth rates of 2.1% per year or less. Clontarf’s 1.3% grow rate means it would take 55 years for property to double in value (compared to eight years for Pemulwuy).
There are four other million-dollar suburbs on the Bottom 20 list.
The worst precinct in Sydney for capital growth is the Sutherland LGA in the south of the metropolitan area – it has four suburbs (Burraneer, Bundeena, Lilli Pilli and Illawong) on the Bottom 20 list, all with growth rates below 2% per year.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
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Sydney ranks fourth for long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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The most common “common denominator” of boom property markets over time is an elevated level of spending on infrastructure.
It’s not coincidence that Sydney has been having its strongest market in 12 years at a time when the level of infrastructure development is the highest it’s been in 12 years. It’s not the only reason but it has played a significant role.
And as Sydney starts to shows signs of beginning the fade-out that’s inevitable after three years of heightened activity and prices, investors seeking long-term growth are well advised to follow the infrastructure trail.
Real estate that lies in the path of progress usually grows at superior rates.
The property cycle in Sydney has reached the point where investors need to be extremely careful with their locational choices.
The Sydney market has been percolating for three years and most locations have recorded significant price growth, including double-digit annual increases in median prices across much of the Sydney metropolitan area.
This scenario has meant that owning real estate almost anywhere in Greater Sydney has delivered good capital growth.
But it will not be so simple moving forward. There are already indications that the Sydney boom is beginning to fade. It was inevitable that this would occur and it was most likely to happen in the third year of heightened market activity – i.e. during 2015.
Our latest analysis of sales data shows that there are fewer growth suburbs (in terms of sales activity) than before, which is an indicator that the boom may be fading. I do not expect any dramatic decline, but the high level of price growth of the past 2-3 years is unlikely to continue.
I note that other research sources, including BIS Shrapnel and National Australia Bank, have also forecast that the rate of price growth in Sydney will decrease over the next year or so.
Investors now need to be selective to achieve capital growth – and the best strategy is to focus on locations where spending on new infrastructure, particularly transport infrastructure, will be a catalyst to real estate demand. 
Currently, the outer reaches of the metropolitan area are the market leaders in Sydney. Penrith, Camden and Campbelltown – as far as you can get from the CBD and still be in Greater Sydney – have the most upwardly-mobile markets.
Some Top End suburbs remain vibrant. But, increasingly, we are seeing the biggest growth in the middle and bottom tiers of the market. This continues a process which evolved throughout 2014, with the millionaire suburbs a little less prominent and the more affordable areas rising. 
Western areas are prominent, including the far south-west of the Sydney metropolitan area where both the Campbelltown and Camden LGAs still have numerous growth suburbs, the Liverpool LGA and the Rouse Hill precinct in the far north-west. 
These are all areas which will benefit from infrastructure spending, including projects currently under construction and those in the planning stages.
In some instances, the level of new transport infrastructure is quite exceptional. Take the north-west precinct centred on the emerging growth region of Rouse Hill. This area is an obvious and direct beneficiary of the $9 billion North west Rail Link, now under construction. 
Currently the main transport link to this precinct is the M2 motorway, where a significant upgrade was recently completed.
Other accessibility improvements are being made with the upgrade of Schofields Road,linking Windsor Road at Rouse Hill to Railway Terrace at Schofields. The two-lane rural road will be transformed into a major east-west connection between Windsor Road and Richmond Road over three stages costing about $200 million.
Stage one opened to traffic in July 2014. Stage two should be complete in early 2017 while stage three remains in the planning phase.
Richmond Road has also undergone a recent $46 million upgrade.
The north-west region of Sydney will benefit from the M9 Orbital road, which will connect it to the far south-west of Sydney. The M9 will link Camden in the south-west to Penrith in the west and continue north to Windsor, a near neighbour of Rouse Hill.
The link is in the early stages of planning, with $4.6 million set aside in the FY2015 State Budget for a feasibility study on the construction of the M9.
The north-west region will also benefit from the NorthConnex motorway, the $2.6 billion project designed to address the missing link between the southern end of the M1 Pacific Motorway at Wahroonga and the M2 motorway at its Pennant Hills Road interchange.
Spanning 9km, NorthConnex will be the longest road tunnel project in Australia. Construction of the tunnel is expected to be completed in 2019. It was announced in February 2015 that Lend Lease had won the contract to construct the motorway.
These infrastructure projects are part of the mix that will make the north-west a growth market long-term, beyond the current boom.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
 
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Property investors must follow the infrastructure trail: Terry Ryder 

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Combined capital city rents remained unchanged from October to November however falls were recorded in Perth, Hobart and Darwin, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
Rental rates in increased by a record low of 0.3% over the past 12 months.
New housing supply across capital cities, combined with slowing population growth, low mortgage rates and an increase property investors are all driving the slow down in rental growth. 
Record rental rises have been felt in Sydney and Melbourne however at a slower pace of growth compared to 12 months ago.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.55.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.55.23%20PM.png" alt="" width="724" height="366">
CoreLogic RP Data state rental demands for apartments is holding up better than rental demand for houses, with house rents increasing by 0.1% while units have recorded a much greater 1.7% annual rise.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.57.58%20PM.png" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.57.58%20PM.png" alt="">
 
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Weekly rents unchanged in November 2015: CoreLogic RP Data

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GUEST OBSERVER
Queensland has shown the greatest improvement over the September quarter, with the annual pace of growth rising nearer to its trend rate.
A dominant feature of the ANZ Stateometer continues to be the strength of New South Wales activity. The largest state is trumping all other states and territories, with the NSW index at a record level.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The index for Victoria edged higher over the September quarter, signalling a steady rise in demand. The outlook in Tasmania remains positive with the annual pace of economic activity at its trend rate.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The ANZ Stateometer shows that economic activity in the aforementioned states has performed well over 2015; a reflection of solid growth in services sector activity. This is also being reflected in labour force outcomes.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The Northern Territory also continues to perform better, supported by strong construction activity in the resource sector.
</div>
<div class="column">
 But in Western Australian economic activity remains below trend and growth in South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory has slipped further.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The September quarter results provide a timely indication of the direction of state final demand in each state and territory. The official data for the September quarter will be released in around two weeks’ time.
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IS NSW ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT ITS PEAK? 
Monthly economic data continue to be strongly positive for New South Wales. The NSW index, which measures annual growth in economic activity, increased to its highest level over the September quarter. 
The positive tone in the monthly data is broad-based with indicators for household consumption, business activity and the labour market all positive. The continuing strength in the index is a strong indication of solid demand in NSW in the September quarter, and should be reflected in the national accounts to be released in early December (Figure 2). 
The upswing in residential construction and the sharp depreciation in the currency are supporting economic activity in NSW, particularly Sydney. While we expect an extended period of above trend growth, indications are that NSW may be approaching the top of the business cycle (Figure 3). How the NSW economy adjusts to a cooling housing market and eventual slow-down in residential construction will be key to future growth momentum. 
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ECONOMIC REBALANCING BROADENS TO QUEENSLAND 
The rebalancing of the national economy continues with a solid pick-up in the annual pace of economic activity in Queensland (Figures 1 and 4). As the third largest economy in Australia, signs of economic momentum are encouraging, and lend further support to signs that the non-mining sectors are picking up. 
The ANZ Stateometer is an alternative measure of the performance of the state and territory economies, and can be used in conjunction with more traditional measures. The latter have the tendency to be strongly influenced by temporary shocks in parts of the economy and this is particularly the case for Queensland (Figure 5), where State Final Demand and the Queensland index have diverged. 
The decline in mining investment in Queensland has led to a sharp contraction in state final demand. While significant, this is perhaps not representative of activity in the broader economy, which has picked up noticeably over the year. The state’s monthly data flow picked up across household, business and labour force indicators. 
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SERVICES LIFTING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 
Of key importance to the rebalancing of the national economy is the role of the services sectors. These industries, typically labour intensive, have helped to lift the trend employment-to-population ratio in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and Queensland. These states are also the ones that are showing the strongest economic performance on the ANZ Stateometer. 
Residential construction has and will continue to be important to supporting employment (in construction and several services industries). Commercial construction, outside of mining, should also play a greater role for some states, with the outlook for non-residential construction looking better in some sectors such as tourism and government-backed infrastructure. 
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Kirk Zammit is economist, ANZ and Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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ANZ Stateometer shows Queensland on the road to recovery: Cherelle Murphy

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Shopping centre managers now have a less positive on future trading prospects than six months ago according to the JLL Retail Survey.
In February, 63% of respondents to JLL's Retail Survey said they expected some turnover growth in the year ahead, however in August this had dropped to 51%.
JLL’s head of property and Asset management Australia, Richard Fennell, said one of the concerns being highlighted by centre managers as impacting their turnover performance going forward related to competition from new or upgraded centres.
“On the positive side, the potential impact of online retailing has consistently reduced as a factor in future trading prospects," he said.
"While there is some pressure on sectors of the market from overseas online retailers, it is not seen as a major concern for smaller convenience based centres.
“The main sources of online sales in the grocery sector are the bricks and mortar supermarkets, with sales still reflected through their bricks and mortar stores."
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Completions by Centre Type, 2011-17 
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JLL strategic consulting director David Snoswell said the vacancy rate for sub-regionals declined from 2.8% in December 2014 to 2.2% in June 2015 – the lowest reading since September 2013. 
"The average vacancy rate across neighbourhood centres was 3.9% - the first time the reading has dipped below 4%,” he said.
 “While tenant enquiry levels were weaker in the latest survey compared to the February result, the actual result is only the fourth positive reading from the 13 surveys that have been conducted since 2011 and is a marked improvement compared to the negative sentiment throughout 2013. 
"Tenant enquiry remained positive for the third survey in a row with a net balance of 5%; a relatively good result given that eight of the first nine surveys had negative readings.”
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Turnover Outlook – Next 12 Months 
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