Flooding

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68170/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Recent floods in New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria have reminded us of the power of our weather and rivers to wreak havoc on homes, business and even, tragically, lives. 
As Dorothea Mackellar poetically pointed out, “droughts and flooding rains” have been a feature of Australia throughout history, so maybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised when they happen.
However, we also know that the reported costs of flooding in Australia have been increasing, most likely through a combination of increased reporting, increased exposure through land use change and population growth, and changes to flood magnitude and severity. So it is critical that we understand what might be causing these changes.
This was the question we asked in our review on how flood impacts have changed over time in Australia and how they may change in the future. We found that despite decades of research in these areas, there are still many gaps in what we know.
<h2>Copping a soaking</h2>
We know that floods depend not just on how much rain falls, but also on how wet the ground is before a heavy rainfall, and how full the rivers are. We also have evidence that the storms that generate heavy rainfall will become more intense in the future, because as the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture. 
This is particularly the case for storms that last just a few hours; in fact we think that these storms are the most likely to show the largest increases. In urban environments this translates to an even greater flood risk, because the concrete and hard surfaces allow this intense rain to run off quickly through storm drains and into creeks and rivers, rather than seeping into the landscape.
In larger catchments and rural areas the story is more complicated than in cities. If the soil is very wet as a result of rain over the previous weeks and months, then when a big storm hits there will be a lot of runoff. In contrast, if the soil is dry then flooding is less likely to be a problem. 
Engineers currently use simple models to estimate this relationship between soil wetness and storm rainfall. But our research indicates that these simple models will need to be replaced with longer-term simulations that model all of the previous rainfall leading up to the storm. 
Simple models use simple assumptions to translate rainfall risk into flood risk. But if these assumptions are incorrect, our estimates of flood risk (that is, the probability of a given flood magnitude occurring in any particular year) could be wrong. Flood risk is used to guide infrastructure assessment through cost-benefit ratios, so getting it right is important.
One of the reasons that catchment wetness varies is because of climate cycles like El Niño and La Niña. We have some idea how these and similar ocean cycles affect our climate, including the fact that they can cause fluctations in flood risk over decades-long timescales. 
The difficulty here is that for most locations we only have 50 to 60 years of recorded river flow data. This makes it hard to separate out the influences of these climate cycles from other trends in flood data, such as the effect of increasing urbanisation. 
There has been progressively less monitoring of streamflow in Australia over the past few decades, and this makes it even harder to understand regional changes in flood risk. Governments need to prioritise investment in data collection to allow us to improve our estimates of the risk of flooding and the associated damages now and in the future. 
The recent work by the Bureau of Meteorology to develop a comprehensive set of high quality streamflow gauge data is a step in the right direction, but much more investment is needed in these areas.
Finally, we recommend that continued research into the fundamental changes likely from climate change is required. This requires climate models to be run at a range of resolutions to enable all the important climate processes for extreme rainfall to be properly represented. 
Recent pressure on CSIRO’s climate modelling capabilities is concerning – the scientific questions are by no means fully answered on these topics. It is great to see the recent funding of the ARC Centre of Excellence on Climate Extremes. The work of these researchers, combined with ongoing efforts across Australia, will be important to provide better assessments on climate changes. This can help engineers and hydrologists continue to provide accurate flood risk estimates.
Fiona Johnson is senior lecturer, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/fiona-johnson-313721" target="_blank">here</a>.
Christopher J. White is lecturer in Environmental Engineering, University of Tasmania and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-j-white-272905" target="_blank">here</a>.
Seth Westra is associate professor, School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/seth-westra-19720" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Planning for a rainy day: there’s still lots to learn about Australia’s flood patterns

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Just as the Townsville residential property market appeared cemented in the start of the recovery phase, according to Herron Todd White, floods have hit and perhaps turned that on its head.
After a mining downturn, Townsville has been dealing with heightened levels of unemployment, said the valuer. 
Now, there is some fear the recent flooding will lead not only to a reduction in tourists but economic strength as the clean-up slows down activity.
HTW's latest residential report stated the rental vacancy rate has fallen throughout the year, while there has also been a slight increase in rents in some locations, primarily inner city postcodes.
There is also concern over the rental housing market.
However, the report noted there had not been the ripple effect of the increased activity transfer through to the market in the fringe or outer suburbs. 
It is these fringe and outer suburbs which were hit hardest by the flooding.
In fact, insurers have received more than $100 million in claims so far.
The State Government and Townsville Mayor Jenny Hill have requested insurance companies to use local businesses as much as possible to support the local economy.
Townsville Chamber of Commerce chief executive Marie-Claude Brown said she is concerned industries like retail and hospitality in particular will now take a hit as these businesses can't be supported in the same way a construction/renovation business can.
HTW's report cited major projects such as the Townsville Stadium and Haughton pipeline duplication underway along with a number of projects in the pipeline as reasons for optimism and improving economic conditions.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Has the Townsville housing market taken a hit following the floods?

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Below is an open letter to Australia written by rural real estate agent David Nolan to Prime Minister Mr Morrison (sent directly to him) and Opposition Leader Mr Bill Shorten (sent directly to him).
After what Gillard and Ludwig did in 2011 banning live cattle into Indonesia, you should be pledging billions to this disaster instead of promising to give our money (the tax payers) to the UN.
Leaders of all other Opposition Parties and all the politicians in these political parties and including every bureaucrat the TIME HAS COME !!!
Everyone must unite and get behind those affected by this tragic event in Far North Queensland.
Foreign Aid, Refugees, Boat People and every other overseas hanger on, the party and free hand outs have to stop until this situation is fixed, which may take a number of years.
I apologise to the bleeding hearts regarding the above but what has just happened on our back door is the greatest loss of livestock in a single event in the world's history.
Think about about that long and hard,
A Tsunami of water based on an unprecedented rain fall event which lasted over a week has taken the lives of 300,000 to 500,000 cattle.*
Think about that about long and hard. 300,000 to 500,000* head of cattle. Those numbers are unfathomable.
To put this in perspective so everyone gets an understanding of the magnitude of this disaster, the area covered in water in Far North QLD was the size of Victoria.
Now I ask this question, if Victoria went under water and suddenly there were 300,000 to 500,000* dead cattle lying around, every politician, agri expert etc and the world press would be over it like a rash.
Or is everyone going to say out of sight out of mind. This will be a real test of what sort of Nation we collectively are today.
Now what about the people, AUSTRALIAN FARMERS, our own. What about their health both mental and physical, both now and in the future. The pressure on them must be off the Richter scale.
No income, bank pressure and in some cases not one head of cattle left. Think about it long and hard,
Do these so called leaders of our great country do what all politicians have previously done? Get dressed up in their RM Williams gear with an Akubra Hat, go and visit for a day, kiss a baby, get a photo and then forget all about the people and the problem?
REMEMBER this is the greatest single natural animal disaster to ever happen in history.
These farmers, their families, the employees all loved and cared for these cattle. Think long and hard about them.
We as proud Australians must continue to keep this event from being swept under the carpet. This northern part of QLD is a long way from any major city, but the people and the land is still AUSTRALIAN. So lets never forget that.
So l ask everyone don't stop talking about it and don't stop reminding every politician you can. You can find your local member's contact details <a href="https://websternolanrealestate.cmail20.com/t/j-l-xtkuyhy-jkhhhkdlll-t/" target="_blank" data-auth="NotApplicable">here</a>.
Thank you.
David Nolan a proud Australian with a long bush heritage
It has never happened to so many animals in one event in the history of the world.
*There are forecasts these figures may even significantly increase in the coming weeks.
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The horrendous Far North Queensland weather event of February 2019: David Nolan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A flood-ravaged Townsville has captured public attention, highlighting the vulnerability of many of our cities to flooding. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184" target="_blank">extraordinary amount of rain</a> is just one aspect of the disaster in Queensland’s third-biggest city. The flooding, increasing urban density, the management of the Ross River Dam, and the difficulties of dealing with byzantine insurance regulations have left the community with many questions about their future.
These questions won’t be resolved until we enhance the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. Adaptation needs to become an integral part of living with the extremes of the Australian environment. I discuss how to design and create resilient urban landscapes later in this article.
Flood risk and insurance
Another issue that affects many households and businesses is the relationship between insurance claims and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766" target="_blank">1-in-100-year flood event overlay maps</a>. Projected rises in flood risks under climate change have led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/20/townsville-homes-may-become-uninsurable-due-to-flooding-from-climate-change" target="_blank">concerns that parts of Townsville and other cities will become “uninsurable”</a> should the costs of cover become prohibitive for property owners.
Council flood data <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766" target="_blank">used for urban planning and land-use strategies</a> is also used by insurers to assess the flood risk to individual properties. Insurers then price the risk accordingly.
However, in extraordinary circumstances, when the flooded land is actually larger than the area marked by the flood overlay map, complications emerge. In fact, that part of the community living outside the map’s boundaries is considered flood-free. Thus, those pockets of the community may have chosen not to have flood insurance and not have emergency plans, which leaves them even worse off after floods. This is happening in Townsville.
Yet this is nothing new. Many people experienced very similar circumstances in 2011. Flood waters covered as much land as Germany and France combined. Several communities were left on their knees.
Notwithstanding the prompt and vast response of the federal government and Queensland’s state authorities, a few years later Townsville is going through something alarmingly similar.
Adaptation to create resilient cities
To find a solution, we need to rethink how to implement the <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmg/Prevention/Pages/3-5.aspx" target="_blank">Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework</a>. That is no easy task. However, it starts with shifting the perspective on what is considered a risk – in this case, a flooding event.
Floods, per se, are not a natural disaster. Floods are part of the natural context of Queensland as can be seen below, for instance, in the <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/channel-country" target="_blank">Channel Country</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Floods are part of the Australian landscape. Here trees mark the seasonal riverbeds in the Queensland outback between Cloncurry and Mount Isa. Cecilia Bischeri, Author provided
The concept of adaptation as a built-in requirement of living in this environment then becomes pivotal. In designing and developing future-ready cities, we must aim to build resilient communities.
This is the ambitious project I am working on. It involves different figures and expertise with a shared vision and the support of government administrations that are willing to invest in a future beyond their elected term of office.
Ideas for Gold Coast Resilientscape
I live and work in the City of Gold Coast. Water is a fundamental part of the city’s character and beauty. In addition to the ocean, a complex system of waterways shapes a unique urban environment. However, this also exposes the city to a series of challenges, including flooding.
Last September, <a href="https://www.gchaveyoursay.com.au/industryhub/news_feed/updated-flood-overlay-maps" target="_blank">an updated flood overlay map</a> was made available to the community. The map takes into account the projections of a 0.8 metre increase in the sea level and 10% increases in storm tide intensity and rainfall intensity.
These factors are reflected in the 1-in-100-year flood overlay. It shows undoubtedly that the boundaries between land and water are changeable.
Building walls between the city and water as the primary flood protection strategy is not a solution. A rigid border can actually intensify the catastrophe. New Orleans and the <a href="https://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2006/01/" target="_blank">levee failures</a> during the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 provide a stark illustration of this.
Instead, what would happen and what would our cities look like if we designed green and public infrastructures that embody flooding as part of the natural context of our cities and territory?
The current project, titled RESILIENTSCAPE: A Landscape for Gold Coast Urban Resilience, considers the role of architecture in enhancing the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. The proposal, in a nutshell, explores the possibilities that urban landscape design and implementation provide for resilience.
RESILIENTSCAPE focuses on the Nerang River catchment and the Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens, in the suburb of Benowa. The river and gardens were adopted as a case study for a broader strategy that aims to promote architectural solutions for a resilient City of Gold Coast. The project investigates the possibility of using existing green pockets along the Nerang River to store and retain excess water during floods.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens is one of the green areas along the Nerang River that could be used to store and retain flood water. <a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_Coast_Regional_Botanic_Gardens_(08).jpg" target="_blank">Batsv/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-SA</a>
These green spaces, however, will not just serve as “water tanks”. If mindfully planned, the green spaces can double up as public parks and facilities. This would enrich the community’s social realm and maximise their use and return on investment.
The design of a landscape responsive to flooding can, by improving local urban resilience, dramatically change the impact of these events.
The goal of creating urban areas that are adaptive to an impermanent water landscape is the main driver of the project. <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3068730/this-new-orleans-neighborhood-is-fighting-flooding-by-welcoming-it" target="_blank">New Orleans</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/disappearing-acts-reflecting-on-new-orleans-10-years-after-katrina-46834" target="_blank">Hurricane Katrina</a> and<a href="https://archpaper.com/2017/10/five-years-sandy-nyc-update-flood-resilience-zoning/" target="_blank"> New York</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/frankenstorm-sandy-wreaks-havoc-on-nyc-floods-cities-10420" target="_blank">Sandy</a> are <a href="https://www.nisconsortium.org/nisc-activities/neworleansfloodresexp/" target="_blank">investing heavily in this direction</a> and promoting <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/" target="_blank">international design competitions</a> and community participation to mould a more resilient future. Queensland, what are we waiting for?

Cecilia Bischeri, Lecturer in Architecture, Griffith University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/townsville-floods-show-cities-that-dont-adapt-to-risks-face-disaster-112607" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main photo: Flooded suburbs of Brisbane 
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Townsville floods show cities that don’t adapt to risks face disaster

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The unprecedented monsoonal event of February 2019 and subsequent floods have led to an upheaval in Townsville market as it undergoes a period of adjustment.
Some property transactions being driven as much by emotional factors as market fundamentals, according to the latest Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report noted that the rental market has tightened significantly following this event, with a reported 3,300 properties suffering water inundation of varying levels.
"This displacement of home owners and renters along with the arrival of assessors and builders has resulted in huge demand for rental stock, with vacancy rates falling to a very tight overall trend vacancy of 1% as at April 2019," the valuation firm said.
A three bedroom house located close to the Townsville city centre is currently on the rental market with a price guide of $460 per week.
Set in a slightly elevated position, the house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-townsville+city-426705010" target="_blank">421A Walker Street </a>(pictured below) comes with three bedrooms, large storage room, living area, open air deck overlooking the pool and private garden area.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/townsville%20city.jpg" alt="">
Overall, local agents are reporting good levels of interest and sales over the past few months, with anecdotal evidence suggesting some tenants are entering the home owner market following the floods after receiving a payout on contents insurance which provides them the deposit required.
A recent sale was a three bedroom house set on a fully fenced 707 square metre allotment in Condon.
The renovated house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-condon-131044698" target="_blank">14 South Vickers Road</a> (pictured below) has been sold for $168,000. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/condon%201.jpg" alt="">
It comprises three air-conditioned bedrooms, open plan dining and living area, modern kitchen and covered carport.
"To date the suburbs hardest hit by the flooding have seen limited activity as the rebuilding process continues and therefore the impact on value levels remains undetermined," the valuation firm said. 
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Huge demand for Townsville rental stock in wake of floods: HTW residential 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In February, about 600,000 cattle were killed by catastrophic flooding across north Queensland’s Carpentaria Gulf plains.
The flood waters rose suddenly, forming a wall of water up to 70 kilometres wide. Record depths were reached along 500 kilometres of the Flinders River, submerging 25,000 square kilometres of country. Cattle were stranded. Many drowned.
Even though cattleman Harry Batt lost 70% of his herd, he was <a href="https://www.thecourier.com.au/story/5906068/queensland-floods-decimate-native-wildlife/?cs=10229" target="_blank">more concerned about the wildlife</a>. He said, “all the kangaroos, and bloody little marsupial mice and birds, they couldn’t handle it”.
Harry was right to be concerned. As our research, published today in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aec.12803" target="_blank">Austral Ecology</a>, reveals, floods sweeping Australia’s plains have disrupted native species for millions of years. Now, as climate change drives <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1689-y" target="_blank">more intense flooding</a>, we will see this effect intensify.
Flooding causes major disruptions to gene flow
February’s flood came ten years to the day after a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/gulf_floods_jan_mar_2009.pdf" target="_blank">far bigger flood</a> on the adjoining river systems that submerged an area larger than Ireland. It was this flood that first drew our attention to the plight of native species.
Noel was asked by <a href="https://mynortherngulf.org/" target="_blank">Northern Gulf Resource Management Group</a> to survey wildlife in areas affected by the 2009 flood. Over the following four years, he found almost no ground-dwelling reptiles, despite them occurring elsewhere in the region. They appeared to have been washed away or drowned.
Biologists have long known that many species’ ranges are interrupted by the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1071/MU9870158" target="_blank">Gulf Plains</a>. Hence, these floodplains are considered one of Australia’s most important biogeographic barriers: the Carpentarian Gap.
Many closely related species with a common ancestor are separated by this Gap, including the Golden-shouldered Parrot of Cape York Peninsula and the Hooded Parrot of the Northern Territory. They are thought to have separated around <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1463-6409.2012.00561.x" target="_blank">7 million years ago</a>. 
The Gap also separates many other species, including birds, mammals, reptiles and butterflies, at the subspecies or genetic level. Even more species found on either side are just absent from the Gulf Plains.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285075/original/file-20190722-134095-gtpfir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285075/original/file-20190722-134095-gtpfir.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
Huge flooding across the Gulf Plains, including the Norman and Flinders Rivers, in February 2009. <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov%20under%20Info/About" target="_blank">NASA Worldview</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-SA</a>
Flood impacts are immense and under-appreciated
When biologists first tried to find a reason for these patterns, they only considered aridity. They proposed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1071/MU9870158" target="_blank">Australia’s arid zone expanded</a> to the Gulf of Carpentaria during ice ages.
There is no evidence for this, but the misunderstanding is completely understandable.
Any dry-season visitor to the Gulf Plains will find a dry, inhospitable environment with few trees or shrubs for shade, cracked clay soils, and lots of flies. European explorers described the region as “God-forsaken”.
But it can be quite a different place in the wet season.
Rains in the Gulf are caused by the summer monsoonal troughs or cyclones. About once a decade, these generate massive downpours. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/index.shtml" target="_blank">Historical records</a> show at least 14 major floods since 1870.
So, to us, it seemed floods rather than aridity could be the cause of the odd distributions of plants and animals.
We set out to see whether Noel’s findings could have been caused by flooding or whether other factors such as soil, vegetation or climate were more important.
We also wanted to know what other effects floods might have on the region’s ecosystem. Could floods, by eliminating trees and shrubs, be responsible for the hostile appearance of the region? Could ground-dwelling reptiles and birds be underrepresented, not just at Noel’s sites, but on floodplains across the area?
To find out, we divided the area into floodplains and higher-altitude land, and generated 10,000 random sites across the Gulf Plains. We extracted soil, vegetation and rainfall data from national information sources, and examined the patterns.
We found trees and shrubs were significantly less common on floodplains than on land above the flood zone, regardless of soil or rainfall, and tree cover was further reduced on cracking clays. We concluded the plain’s open, hostile appearance is caused by a combination of soils and flooding.
We then examined all gecko, skink and bird records from the <a href="https://www.ala.org.au/" target="_blank">Atlas of Living Australia</a>.
We found ground-living reptiles and birds were much less common on the floodplains, regardless of vegetation or soil. As expected, reptiles were more sensitive to flooding than birds, which can fly to safety during floods.
Finally, we found the sites affected by the 2009 flood had significantly fewer geckos and skinks than other sites across the Gulf Plains.
Increased flooding from climate change could have major consequences
Our findings have evolutionary significance that extends into the future. Repeated disruption of species across their distributions affects gene flow and ultimately produces new species. If <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1689-y" target="_blank">floods become more frequent</a>, as expected under climate change, so might the rates at which new species form.
They also have serious land management implications. Climate change planning emphasises conserving river corridors as safe refuges from arid conditions. However, periodic scouring of many of the nation’s floodplains – expected to increase under climate change – means that this approach needs rethinking.
We conclude that on the most arid occupied continent on Earth, unpredictable floods may cause the most disruption to the Australian plant and animal life.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120753/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Gabriel Crowley, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, James Cook University.
Noel D Preece, Adjunct Asssociate Professor, James Cook University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/catastrophic-queensland-floods-killed-600-000-cattle-and-devastated-native-species-120753" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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