Employment

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<p>EXPERT INSIGHT</p>

<p>The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.</p>

<p>But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      </p>

<p>Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  </p>

<p>There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  </p>

<p>The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.</p>

<p><strong>What do you need to know? </strong></p>

<p>Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.</p>

<p>The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).</p>

<p>Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.</p>

<p>Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.</p>

<p>Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).</p>

<p>Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  </p>

<p><strong>What are the implications for investors?</strong></p>

<p>One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.</p>

<p>The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.</p>

<p>The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.</p>

<p>The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       </p>

<p> </p>
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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/labour-market-weakness-under-hood"></a></h3>
<div id="post-body-5100146898223249015" class="post-body entry-content">Let's begin with the good news, because I'm in a jolly good mood and don't want to spoil it.<br><br>It won't take long anyway, as there isn't really that much good news to report!<br><br><div>The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.35 percent in original terms, the lowest in well over three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In seasonally adjusted terms the unemployment rate of 5.58 percent was the lowest in 42 months, and well below the 6.32 percent seen in January 2015 (click the graphics to expand, as always!).<br><br>
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<div>Drilling the trend line through the figures, the unemployment rate of 5.6 percent looks healthy enough. </div>
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<div>In New South Wales the trend unemployment rate has continued to decline to just 4.89 per cent, the lowest figure in nearly six years, while Victoria and Queensland are also moving in the right direction.<br><br>The trend hasn't caught up but Queensland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 per cent. Bonzer.</div>
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<div>Tasmania and Western Australia are heading the other way. </div>
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<br><div>Although not charted here due to their respective small sample sizes, the unemployment rates in the Northern Territory (3.5 per cent) and the ACT (3.4 per cent) are low. </div>
<br>OK, that's great. Now brace for the not-so-cheerful news....<br><br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Jobs and growth?" Maaate...</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Hiring is usually strong at this time of year, and total employment increased by about +78,800 over the last two months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for seasonality, however, this month's increase was only +9,800, although that figure did at least include a vast swing back to full-time employment of +41,500. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This all sounds cool until we revisit what happened last month, which was a big seasonally adjusted drop in employment, while full-time employment is nearly 90,000 lower than at the beginning of the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking through the noise, the trend in employment growth now looks poor. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/11/18/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div>Another way to look at this is to view the annual trend employment change, which has dropped to +108,100, or an a trend annual increase of only +0.9 percent. </div>
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<br><div>The annual rate of employment growth is at its lowest level in 23 months and is now below the rate of population growth, and categorically 'not good enough'!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has now cruised to the top of the employment growth charts, with Victoria (+107,300) and New South Wales (+46,100) accounting for more than all of the net employment growth over the past year.<br><br>Employment in Tasmania dived by -3,400 in October to be -4,300 lower than a year ago. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Queensland employment fell by -16,900 in the month, and by -46,000 over the year. This month's result was a rogue statistic due to the sample rotation from September, though there's no question that employment in aggregate has weakened in the Sunshine State, led by resources-related job losses in locations such as Townsville. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'll look at the Queensland figures by region in more detail next week. </div>
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<br><div>Shadow Treasurer Scott Emerson highlighted that 67,600 jobs had been lost in Queensland since the beginning of the year and that "anyone who sees today's result as good news doesn't understand how tough it is to find a job in Queensland".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He's right about the second part, but clearly he didn't read the commentary on the incoming sample and cocked up his numbers by calculating them from the end of January rather than the beginning. Maybe that was deliberate. Oh well, at least his job doesn't require strong numeracy skills! </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>While the unemployment rate superficially looks positive, the participation rate is well down and now at the lowest level since early 2006. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite a much improved monthly result, total hours worked - as useful an indicator as any when looking at a volatile survey - increased by only +0.9 per cent over the year to October, and less in trend terms. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite the wild swing back to full-time employment this month, it's important to see through the monthly noise and understand that much of the growth in jobs has been part-time in nature over recent times.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Therefore, we have the weakest nominal wages growth on record, some of the weakest non-tradables inflationary pressures on record, and weak employment growth across recent months. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sounds like the easing cycle isn't over to me, but markets remain tentative for now, and job vacancies figures have admittedly been solid enough.<br><br>I will just note that when the labour force report prints solidly most commentary states that it must be somehow wrong, yet when the figures are weaker (as they are now) they are instantly taken at face value!<br><br>Something to bear in mind if the headline figure snaps back up next month...</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Labour market: weakness under the hood

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<div>I've spent some time in recent weeks looking at migration and immigration trends.</div>
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<div>The capital cities are accounting for an ever-greater share of population growth, now up to 82 percent, for a huge increase over the past decade from 75 percent.</div>
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<div>And this trend is forecast to continue over the next decade too.</div>
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<div>In particular, Melbourne and Sydney are accounting for a record share of the growth in headcount.</div>
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<div>A valid question is: why?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There are a number of drivers for the capital city migration, including an apparent desire to live "closer to the action".</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The main reason, though, is jobs, with the capital cities creating most of the employment since the peak of the resources investment boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below looks at the number of unemployed persons per job vacancy by state, with the numbers smoothed on a rolling four quarter average basis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In New South Wales the ratio has declined to just 3, with job vacancies advertised having hit a record high in H2 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Victoria has also responded relatively to interest rate cuts with the ratio declining from 6.6 to a more reasonable 4.2. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many of the jobs created have been in or related to construction, of course, which may prove to be a transient dynamic.</div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/6/VACANCIES.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div>Tasmania has the highest ratio at 7.8, but the latest figures show that this is about to drop sharply over the next couple of quarters as the outlook improves. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The problem child is Western Australia, which saw its labour force switch from full employment to an elevated level of slack after the peak of the mining construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lately the ratio in WA appears to have been correcting itself, but this is partly because some of the thousands of Aussies that migrated to WA during the boom years are now returning home (or simply heading to the eastern capitals for gainful employment). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The labour force challenges are generally more acute in a number of the regional centres than in the capital cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most immigrants into Australia naturally gravitate towards Sydney and Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile within Australia Sydneysiders are now drifting towards south-east Queensland, and residents of Adelaide are lurking across the border into Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Employees flocking to eastern capitals: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Job vacancies had barely begin their decline by the end of February, holding up at about 227,000.</span></p>
<p><span>Vacancies were lower than a year earlier due to the bushfires, but not by much.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KNa301clF_4/XoVRp1y5JiI/AAAAAAAA1DM/Oc-nvFUNd0Yj1oiu6d41CR0KXGHCg2XbQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="384" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1359"></p>
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<div>There were about 700,000 unemployed persons at the end of the last month, so there never was any tight labour market in this cycle. </div>
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<div>We simply never got low or tight enough to see stronger wages growth. </div>
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<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-D28blnXsgiw/XoVRp2NX0DI/AAAAAAAA1DI/e6kSJ5tag6QHcqB-Cc5JlpCHJ-5qPwktwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1398"></div>
<p><span>And full employment has remained elusive throughout the full cycle.</span></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.</p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d5OcMFYxtOs/XoVRprnURdI/AAAAAAAA1DE/VuLDAE0OyWoQ8tVThGIyatv2iax8ATpiACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1408"></div>
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<div>Looking at the most timely available data from private data sets on job vacancies and other reads, it seems likely that unemployment is probably heading to about 10 per cent, although the situation is very fluid right now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level, the resources states were tracking a bit better, as Sydney and Melbourne have moved beyond their respective peaks. </div>
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<div>Click here to enlarge.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--rUsZxjmY2U/XoVRq0743RI/AAAAAAAA1DQ/0A7rMqDZHeM1ShxtFwsnDL6Px5T_8HbygCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1400"></a></div>
<p><span>Challenging times ahead.</span></p>
<p><span><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em></span></p>
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Job vacancies are getting set for a plunge: Pete Wargent

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<div>Last week the ABS Job Vacancies series recorded New South Wales vacancies at an all-time high driven by positions in the services sector, which bodes well for Sydney employment growth.<br><br>Indeed, Sydney's economic dials have all been switched to hot for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>ANZ released its job advertisements dat<a href="https://www.media.anz.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=248677&amp;p=irol-jobad&amp;nyo=0" target="_blank">a</a> for September which showed a seasonally adjusted +3.9% jump following on from a +1.3% lift in August. </div>
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<div>This was the strongest monthly gain in 15 months and the trend estimate has now been rising since November 2013.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/07/ANZ.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>ANZ noted that the series now appears to be stronger than had previously been thought, and that the economy seems to be adjusting relatively well to the decline in mining investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other news the FCAI reported that an all-time record 1,143,104 new motor vehicle vehicles for the year to September after a +6.8 per cent year-on-year jump in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the services PMI gauge also recording a fourth month of expansion for the first time since March 2008 (following on from a 7 year high reading last month), interest rates will be left on hold this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads biggest jump in 15 months: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its all-important Labour Force data for Janaury 2016. It is perhaps the most important of the data releases, so let's take a canter through it in the three short parts.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1 - Employment growth</span></strong></div>
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<div>In seasonally adjusted terms, total employment declined by -7,900 in January to 11,894,500. In trend terms, total employment increased by +19,800.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although this was a decline for the headline result which missed market expecations, given the strength of what has gone before, in context it wasn't too bad a result. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><span>In trend terms total employment increased by +302,500 over the past year or +2.6 per cent, which is a high rate of employment growth in historical terms. </span></div>
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<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A7.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
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<div> </div>
<div><span>However, the composition of employment does not look quite so pretty, with full time employment decreasing by -40,600 in January, and part time employment increasing by +32,700. </span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While full time jobs growth has been solid over the past year in rising by +2.0 per cent, the rate of part time jobs growth has been exceptionally high at +3.9 per cent. This probably represents a structural shift towards more casual jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total hours worked increased by a modest +2.0 per cent over the past year, perhaps a rather more realistic indicator of the strength of employment growth. </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br>Part 2 - NSW &amp; QLD create the jobs</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January, while Queensland went on to record further gains. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past six months the economy has created +143,400 jobs, with New South Wales (43 per cent) and Queensland (38 per cent) accounting for more than four-fifths of them.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>Over the past year employment growth rates have ranged from an enormous +4.7 per cent in New South Wales and +3.3 per cent in Queensland, to a distinctly uninspiring -0.9 per cent in Tasmania. </span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3 - Unemployment rates converge</span></strong><br><br><div>The headline result showed a seasonally adjusted increase in the unemployment rate to 6.0 per cent, which will excite the pessimists. However, the result was probably more middle of the road than anything.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The participation rate has crept up to 65.2 per cent, the highest level in nearly four years, and while the number of unemployed persons recorded is volatile, it was down by 2.6 per cent over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend unemployment rate ticked down a notch to 5.8 per cent, for a 27 month low. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/19/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>At the state level the monthly figures were absolutely wild once again, lurching all over the place. The trend figures point towards convergence rather than divergence between the states, with New South Wales looking to be in the best nick on this measure. </span></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The 95 per cent confidence interval figures provided by the ABS (which ranged from -66,500 to +55,700 for the month) serve as a reminder that as estimates the monthly data shouldn't be taken too literally.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The big picture suggests that although annual headline employment growth is high by historical standards, the quality of employment growth is underwhelming, with part time work and under-employment aplenty in evidence. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As a result ongoing low wages growth is likely to be the order of the day due to the inherent level of slack in the workforce.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The employment figures weren't too bad on the whole, but notably Goldman Sachs is now forecasting interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in both May and July, so hold on to your hats.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NSW & QLD are creating the jobs: Pete Wargent

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<div>A strong +1.6 percent increase in job advertisements in June saw year-on-year vacancies rise very strongly by +11 percent to a total of 169,600, according to the Department of Employment.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Abs2.jpg" alt=""><br><div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Department of Employment</span></em></div>
<br><div>Total vacancies are now at their highest level in four years, which bodes well for jobs growth picking up. </div>
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<div>Since the peak of the mining boom June 2012, the share of total vacancies located in Western Australia has declined from 15.6 percent to 7.8 percent. </div>
<br><div>On the other hand there has been a huge surge in vacancies in New South Wales over the past three years, up by 37.4 percent in trend terms to a massive 91,400 (a record boom). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year the percentage growth in vacancies has also been very strong in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20Ads4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>In trend terms all eight occupation groups are strengthening, and over the year job advertisements were up in 33 of the 37 recorded regions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The decreases were seen in northern Queensland, Perth, and western Tasmania.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2016/07/21/Job%20ads5.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<br><div>The index has its weaknesses, particularly since it doesn't differentiate between full time and part time gigs.</div>
<br>Nevertheless, all in all, this looks pretty good for jobs growth in the second half of 2016.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Job ads up to a four-year high: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<div>Economists had expected employment to fall by 30,000 in October as Victoria's lockdown persisted.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Instead we got a rollicking increase of 178,800 or 1.4 per cent, most of which were full-time jobs.</div>
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<div>There was a big leap in participation to 65.8 per cent (a huge beat - economist forecasts were for a flat result here), which is now returning close to record highs and only 0.1 pts lower than a year earlier.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite the leap in participation, the unemployment rate has nestled in at 7 per cent, which is far, far better than previously feared. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>How did economists land <em><strong>so</strong></em> far away from the target?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's hard to say for sure, but the huge rebound in Victorian employment in the month - despite the lockdown persisting through October - was an interesting and totally unexpected result. </div>
<p> </p>
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<div>Queensland has added back a stunning 206,000 jobs in only 5 months, to see total employment actually higher than a year ago.</div>
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<div>But despite ostensibly adding 82,000 jobs in October, total employment in Victoria is still 124,000 lower than a year earlier.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date 648,000 of the 875,000 jobs lost have been recovered across only five months, so we are already 74 per cent of the way back to employment topping new highs at above 13 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, this was a great result, which introduces the exciting possibility of a strong snap-back in the Aussie economy in 2021. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lest anyone becomes too excited at this early stage in the recovery, measures of underemployment remain understandably high, and monthly hours worked were still 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier (largely due to a huge year-on-year decline in Victoria). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In October the underemployment rate by 1.0 pts to 10.4 per cent, but that's still 1.9 pts higher than a year ago.</div>
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<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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Employment soared higher in October: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>
<p>The oil price is back to its highest level since March, rising another 4 per cent to $47.91/barrel (Brent crude) today amid lower inventories and further vaccine optimism.</p>
<div id="post-body-5601314325818678673" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>Energy, arguably the main sector of the US economy demonstrating some semblance of 'value', has been quietly powering higher over the past month. </p>
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<p>US stocks more generally have been absolutely pumped, with price to sales ratios now ascending to even higher levels than the tech bubble peak of 2000. </p>
<p>That's right, the price to sales ratio (ex-financials) is now at the highest level in stock market history at above 2.7x. </p>
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<p>The Dow Jones index took out a record 30,000 today, to some acclaim and modest fanfare.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some of the wilder tech stocks out there could drop by two-thirds without troubling too many of the traditional metrics of valuation. </p>
<p>Yet the US economy will need to face down some serious challenges as there is a changeover of President, with the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases now surpassing 175,000 and, for now at least, still trending higher. </p>
<div>What. A. Year!</div>
</div>
</div>
<p><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong><em><strong> </strong>is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger </em></p>
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