Employment

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The good news is that the job market recovery continues – and continues quite spectacularly. More jobs were created in the past six months than any similar period on record. Looking at March alone, the labour market results are truly awesome except for the drop in full-time positions – and that was a payback from the outsized gain in February. Unfortunately however, Aussies will remain sceptical on the speed and scale of the recovery for at least one more month – when the first month of post-JobKeeper data is published.

But it is a case of so far, so good. More people are looking for work, more people are finding work and the jobless rate continues its progress to pre-COVID levels. And while significant spare capacity remains, there were good gains made in the latest month on the measures of hours worked, labour under-employment and under-utilisation.      

Looking ahead, there is indeed the uncertainty about what is the ‘true’ state of the job market after JobKeeper. But reassuringly, all measures of labour demand including job ads/vacancies show that there are plenty of businesses looking for staff. In fact, SEEK has today reported the highest number of monthly job ads in its 23+ year history.  

There are plenty of jobs to be had, but will Aussies fill the available positions? That is the key issue for policymakers, and ultimately the economy. Ultimately if Aussies won’t take up the jobs on offer, then more specific attempts must be made to bring in foreign workers. Otherwise, economic momentum will be constrained.  

The Reserve Bank is expected to stick to its script for now, vowing not to lift cash rates until 2024. That determination to maintain steady rates has been reinforced today showing the consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent in April. But clearly plenty of water will flow under the bridge before 2024.

What do you need to know? 

Employment rose by 70,700 in March (consensus: +35,000) after increasing by 88,700 jobs in February. Full-time jobs fell by 20,800 and part-time jobs rose by 91,500 positions. The number of people employed rose to a record high of 13.078 million.

The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 12-month low of 5.6 per cent in March (consensus: 5.7 per cent).

Hours worked rose from 1,762 million hours to a record high of 1,800 million hours (up 2.2 per cent) to be up 1.2 per cent over the year.

Participation rate: The participation rate rose from 66.1 per cent to a record high of 66.3 per cent in March (consensus: 66.1 per cent).

Spare capacity: In March, the underutilisation rate fell from 14.3 per cent to a 15-month low of 13.5 per cent. The underemployment rate fell from 8.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent – a 7-year low.

Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.4 per cent (February: 5.6 per cent); Victoria 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); Queensland 5.9 per cent (6.1 per cent); South Australia 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent); Western Australia 4.8 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 5.9 per cent (5.7 per cent); Northern Territory 5.6 per cent (4.9 per cent); ACT 3.4 per cent (4.1 per cent).

Employment across states in March: NSW (+14,700); Victoria (+6,100), Queensland (+23,300), South Australia (-600), Tasmania (+400), the ACT (-2,700), Western Australia (+32,600) and the Northern Territory (-1,600).  

What are the implications for investors?

One year on from the COVID lockdown and more Aussies are in jobs than ever before. Collectively Aussies are also working more hours than ever before. And the proportion of females employed has never been higher. We need to remember than when the jobless rate lifted to 7.5 per cent in May 2020, some economists were tipping that it would ultimately peak in excess of 16 per cent.

The economy has out-performed the ‘official’ forecasts from Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank. If this out-performance remains significant then monetary and fiscal stimulus measures will need to be re-assessed. But that point is still some way off. Foreign borders remain closed, the vaccine roll-out is still slow and less than a month has passed since JobKeeper ended.

The record lift in jobs, together with the strengthening of job security will underpin consumer spending in coming months. And the desire to engage in retail therapy will be underpinned by the likelihood that the foreign border will be closed until much later in the year.

The improvement in the Western Australian job market is clearly a stand-out. The state led the nation in job creation in March and the jobless rate is the lowest for over seven years (since December 2013) – assisted in part by low population growth. The housing market will clearly be a key driver of the economy in 2021, courtesy of Building Bonus Grant and the HomeBuilder grant. In addition, the mining sector continues to be supported by solid demand and high commodity prices. Jobs growth in Queensland occurred following the announcement of the $200 travel voucher scheme, while interstate migration continues to support economic activity in the Sunshine State.       

 
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cjames

The number of people employed reached a record high in March: CommSec's Craig James

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GURST OBSERVER
Wage inflation in Qld has moderated down to the pace in WA even though the mining invesment hit is greater in the latter state.
Total hourly wage rates ex bonuses (WPI) lifted 0.4 percent in Q1, less than market’s expectation for a 0.5 percent rise. Westpac forecast was for a 0.4 percentqtr rise in the WPI. This follows on from a rise of 0.5 percent in Q4 and 0.6 percentqtr rise in each of the two quarters before.
The annual pace is a new record low for the Index at 2.1 percentyr. This is a moderation from 2.2 percentyr in Q4 and the recent peak of 2.5 percentyr in 2015Q4. The WPI started in the September quarter of 1997.
More dramatic has been the deceleration in private sector wage inflation. Lifting just 0.4 percentqtr this followed a 0.5 percentqtr rise in each of the previous four quarters. Before that it had a run of three quarters printing 0.6 percentqtr each quarter.  As such, the annual pace has hit a new record low of 1.9 percentyr. Private sector wage inflation recent peak was 4.0 percentyr in 2011Q1 and has been moderating ever since.
There was, however, some more positive news. The annual pace of growth in wages rates when you also include bonuses lifted to 2.5 percentyr in Q1. But before you get too excited this was more to do with base effects than an improvement in the underlying pace. In the quarter, total wages included bonuses lifted 0.4 percent compared to 0.5 percent in Q4 and 1.0 percent in Q3 but as it is up on the surprising 0.2 percent in 2015Q1 it boosted the annual pace.
The moderation in wages may also be due to the shifting composition of employment gains, from mining and construction to hospitality and other household services. These sectors seem to be able to draw in a greater supply of labour (noticeable in the rising female participation) and tend to have weaker collective bargaining power.
Public sector wage inflation printed 0.5 percent in the March quarter from 0.5 percent in the December quarter and an average of 0.7 percentqtr in the previous four quarters. The annual pace was flat at 2.5 percentyr which is a moderation from the recent peak of 2.7 percentyr in 2015Q3. Post the GFC, public sector wage inflation peaked at 3.9 percentyr in 2010Q4.
Wage inflation lifted a touch in WA to 2.0 percentyr as Qld held a 1.9 percentyr pace to now have the lowest rate of total wage inflation for any mainland state. ACT overall holds the award for the lowest rate of wages growth at 1.8 percentyr. However, at 1.6 percent WA has the lowest rate of private sector wage inflation. NSW wages growth was flat at 2.1 percentyr while Vic wages growth was also flat but at a higher pace of 2.4 percentyr. SA spit the difference of the two recording a 2.2 percentyr pace.
Wage inflation is underperforming what the broader labour market indicators are suggesting it should be. Wage pressures are well contained as the temperature cools in the former hot sectors and industries. This presents a very benign outlook for inflation and one that is set to remain so given modest job gains, increasing market competition in the retail space in particular, declining inflation expectations and rising supply of workers in the sectors that are expanding (as exemplified by rising female participation).
Depending on which deflator you use, real wage inflation is benign at 0.8 percent/yr (headline CPI) or 0.5 percentyr (using average of the RBA core measures). 
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

 Wages inflation continues to probe new record lows: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
The emerging new trend for slightly softer participation is something we are watching closely. Also note that annual growth in total hours worked was negative this month.
There was not much excitement in the 10.8k rise in total employment in April as was enough to lift the annual pace to 2.1 percent/yr from 2.0 percent/yr and hold the unemployment rate flat at 5.72 percent.
On these two headline numbers there is not much to make you want to alter neither your trajectory for the Australian labour market nor how you think about the outlook for monetary policy.
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However, there are still some key issues that come to light from the current survey. First is further confirmation that employment growth is concentrated in female and part-time employment.
In the year to April, part-time employment has grown 160.9k (4.5 percent/yr) while full-time employment has growth 83.8k (1.0 percent/yr). 
Given that full-time employment represents 69 percent of total employment that in the last year we have added twice as many part-time employees as full-time employees it really highlights the significant shift the economy is experiencing. Furthermore, female employment has grown 164.4k (3.1 percent/yr) in the year to April which is more than double the 80.3k gain (1.3 eprcent/yr) in male employment. As we have noted previously, this highlight the big shift in employment growth from the previously booming resources sectors to the more modestly growing services sectors as these sectors have a much higher proportion of female and part-time workers in their labour force.
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The second key issue is that the participation rate was flat in April. From January 2014 there has been a trend rise in participation which has been driven mostly by a rise in female participation and in particular, a rise in female participation in NSW. However, participation appears to have peaked in the last quarter of 2015 averaging 64.1 percent, up from 65.0% in Q3, then moderate to 64.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016. Printing 64.9 percent in April is does look as if participation is holding around these new levels rather than drifting higher.
It is also worth noting that a return of a small trend decline in male participation has been key to this moderation. Female participation has been volatile of late but the trend appears to be holding the new higher level.   
There was one indicator that suggests we should be cautious about being too optimistic about the near term employment outlook. Total hours worked fell 1.1 percent in April, following a –1.1 percent print in March, to be down 0.5 percent in the year. Compare this to the 2.1 percent/yr gain in total employment. As we illustrate in our chart, a negative print from growth in hours worked has tended to, but not always, been consistent with either softer growth in total employment and/or marginally led a dip in total employment. That is it could be a potential signal for softer employment numbers sometime in the next few months.
ustin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Annual growth in total hours worked negative for April: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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GUEST OBSERVER
Employment rose by 26,100 in March after rising by 700 in February (previously reported as a rise in jobs of 300). Full-time jobs fell by 8,800 while part-time jobs rose by 34,900. Economists had tipped a 17,000 increase in jobs.
Hours worked fell by 1.1 per cent in March. Hours worked are up by 0.7 per cent over the year.
Jobless rate: The unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to a 2ó-year low of 5.7 per cent in March (lowest since September 2013). The trend unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 per cent – a 27-month low.
The participation rate was steady at 64.9 per cent.
Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.3 per cent (February 5.3 per cent); Victoria 5.7 per cent (6.0 per cent); Queensland 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); South Australia 7.2 per cent (7.7 per cent); Western Australia 5.5 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 6.8 per cent (6.9 per cent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory rose from 4.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent; ACT unemployment fell from 4.5 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
In smoothed terms, discount fares fell by 3.6 per cent over the year to April. But business class airfares rose at a smoothed 7.4 per cent annual rate with “restricted economy” fares up by 3.6 per cent.
A raft of companies is affected by the employment data but especially those dependent on consumer spending. Amongst stocks affected are Fairfax, West Australian Newspapers, Seek Limited, McMillan Shakespeare and Skilled Group.
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What does it all mean?
The latest employment result was just what households and businesses ordered. After a couple of months of consolidation, employment has recorded a sizeable rebound. And while the pessimists may focus on the fact that hours worked fell in the March, the slide in the unemployment rate to 5.7 per cent - the lowest levels in 2ó years – will provide a big boost to confidence amongst Aussie consumers. And as we saw over the latter part of 2015, job security plays a big part in household consumption.
Labour market conditions have certainly improved over the past year; business conditions are healthier; profitability has improved; and more importantly the housing sector is providing significant support to an array of industries.
After racking up almost 300,000 new jobs in 2015, there was likely to be inevitable period of consolidation. And the volatility in financial markets in the early part of 2016 was unlikely to see businesses commit to significant hiring. The employment growth in March is a positive shift in momentum, however while we expect employment to strengthen over 2016, it is likely that employers will be more circumspect in hiring given the uncertainty around the timing of the Federal Election.
The Reserve Bank will be comforted by the latest job market figures. No doubt it would like to see a lift in productivity but that will take time as the significant new job hires over 2015 get settled into their new working environments. In addition policymakers will take the latest figures with a degree of caution given the seasonality issues with the early timing of Easter and even the extra day in February (leap year). The key will be the inflation data, due on April 27. A super low inflation result would allow the Reserve Bank to contemplate another rate cut – in effect asking the question whether the economy could run at a faster pace without creating asset bubbles. We expect rates to remain on hold over the next couple of months.
The Reserve Bank will also be heartened that the youth jobless rate (15-24 year olds) fell from 12.2 per cent to a near 3-year low of 12 per cent.
It pays to shop around. That is common advice but it certainly is the case with airfares. In smoothed terms, discount airfares are almost 4 per cent lower than a year ago but business and full fare economy fares are up on a year ago – over 7 per cent higher in the case of business fares. With plenty of people travelling – especially businesspeople – airlines aren’t keen to trim fares.
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What do the figures show?
Labour force:
Employment rose by 26,100 in March after rising by 700 in February (previously reported as a rise in jobs of 300). Full-time jobs fell by 8,800 while part-time jobs rose by 34,900. Economists had tipped a 17,000 increase in jobs.
Hours worked fell by 1.1 per cent in March. Hours worked are up by 0.7 per cent over the year.
The unemployment rate  fell from 5.8 per cent to a 2ó-year low of 5.7 per cent in March (lowest since September 2013). The trend unemployment rate held steady at 5.8 per cent – a 27-month low.
The participation rate  was steady at 64.9 per cent.
A total of 235,300 jobs were added over the year to March . The annual growth rate eased from 2.1 per cent to 2 per cent. In trend terms, employment has risen for 28 consecutive months.
The working age population  rose by 30,900 in March. The working age population rose by 285,600 over the past year. The working age population is up 1.49 per cent over the past year.
Unemployment across states in March: NSW 5.3 per cent (February 5.3 per cent); Victoria 5.7 per cent (6.0 per cent); Queensland 6.1 per cent (5.6 per cent); South Australia 7.2 per cent (7.7 per cent); Western Australia 5.5 per cent (6.0 per cent); Tasmania 6.8 per cent (6.9 per cent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory rose from 4.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent; ACT unemployment fell from 4.5 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
Jobs across states and territories in March:  NSW +4,800; Victoria +10,600; Queensland -15,400; South Australia +4,600; Western Australia +16,600; Tasmania +800. Trend terms: Northern Territory -600; ACT unchanged.
 Airfares
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) reports that business class airfares fell by 0.2 per cent in April to stand 6.2 per cent higher than a year ago. Earlier in February airfares were up 8.2 per cent on a year ago – the strongest growth in 10 months. In smoothed terms, business class airfares are up 7.4 per cent on the year, the fastest growth pace in 13 months.
“Restricted economy” airfares also fell by 0.2 per cent in April after rising by 0.1 per cent in March. Restricted economy airfares are up 3.6 per cent on a year ago. In smoothed terms restricted economy fares were also up 3.6 per cent over the year. Airfares have been rising at a 6.5 per cent average annual pace for the past three years.
Discount airfares remain volatile. Discount fares rose by 6.4 per cent in April after falling by 6.6 per cent in March and rising by 7.5 per cent in February. Discount fares are 9.9 per cent higher than a year ago after being down 13 per cent on a year ago in March. In smoothed terms, discount airfares are down 3.6 per cent on a year ago.
In real terms however, discount airfares are only 6.0 per cent above the lowest levels recorded (March 2011).
Why is the data important?
The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.
If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.
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The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases regular aviation data. The BITRE releases  Airport Traffic data and the  Australian Domestic Airline Activity publication each month as well as the  Domestic Air Fares publication. The data provides insights on airline activity as well as trends in the broader Australian economy. If more people are flying, then it suggests businesses are more active and/or consumers are more confident
What are the implications?
Interest rates remain on hold. The Reserve Bank will want to assess a lot more data before deciding the next move on rates.
The Bureau of Statistics has estimated that the number of people in the working age population. Rather than rising by 22,300 a month, the increase in the past three months averaged almost 31,000 – the biggest increase in almost two years. If this assumption is correct and retained, it may make it more difficult for the jobless rate to ease further in the next few months.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Jobless rate falls to 2½-year low: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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 Six months ago we noted that there were more people in jobs or looking for jobs than ever before across a raft of age categories. And at that time we suggested there were signs that participation rates seemed to be topping out – starting to trend sideways. 
But interestingly over the past six months workforce participation rates for those older than 55 years have lifted and to fresh record highs (using 12-month rolling averages).
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But while seniors are more active in the labour force, the participation rate for the 15-19 years grouping continues to trend lower. And the participation rate of 20-24 year Aussies has been largely stable and still well below the record highs set 25 years ago.
In rolling average terms, the overall labour force participation rate has been rising since May 2015 and now stands at a 2ó-year high of 65.0 percent, but still below the high of 65.5 per cent set in 2011. However a key reason why overall workforce participation is still below record levels is the lower participation rate of young people, with more choosing to do further studies before joining the workforce.
The latest job numbers also show that there are 3.66 million people over the age of 65 compared with 3.53 million Australians aged between 25-34 years. The number of people over the age of 65 is growing at a 3.4 percent annual rate. In contrast the number of people aged 25-34 is growing at a 1.58 percent annual rate (8-year low) and the number aged 35-44 is growing at a 0.21 percent annual rate – slowest rate recorded.
Australians are living longer and are opting to stay in the workforce longer – even if on a more casual or part-time basis.
But the trends are incredibly positive for Government finances and the economy as a whole. The risk had been that the ageing population would lead to lower tax revenues and rising health and social security spending. But a healthier aged population and greater workforce participation by seniors can buy the politicians more time in coming up with a new tax structure that will take the economy forward.
What do the figures show?
 Detailed employment data
A raft of detailed job data for March was released yesterday. Data on employment by industry is released quarterly and the most recent data was published last month. 
This month we focus on participation rates (proportion of people in jobs or looking for work) across age brackets and have assessed rolling annual averages.
In the year to March, the participation in the job market of those 25-34 years was 83.2 per cent, just off the record high of 83.3 percent set in the year to February.
The participation in the job market of those 35-44 years was 83.8 percent,  a record high.
The participation in the job market of those 60-64 years was a  record high of 56.0 percent.
The participation in the job market of those 65 years plus was 12.3 percent,  a record high
The participation in the job market of those 55-59 years was 73.6 percent,  a record high.
The participation in the job market of those 45-54 years was 83.4 per cent, just below the record high of 83.6 percent set in April 2011.
The participation in the job market of those 20-24 years was 79.2 per cent, up from the record low of 78.0 per cent set in November 2014.
The participation in the job market of those 15-19 years was 53.8 per cent, up from the record low of 53.2 percent set in July 2014.
The number of people in the civilian population aged 65 plus is 3.66 million, up 3.43 percent on a year ago.
Those aged 25-34 years total 3.53 million people (up 1.58 per cent) and those aged 35-44 years total 3.22 million people (up 0.21 per cent).
There are 3.61 million Aussies not in the labour force and the number is currently falling at a 1.51 per cent annual rate – just off the fastest annual decline seen in the past nine years.
Average hours worked in the year to March was 32.3 hours. The average measure has been largely unchanged over the past year but down on recent highs of 32.9 hours set in early 2012.
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What is the importance of the economic data?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides  detailed labour market figures one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy.
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<img src="/images/2016/04/26/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-26%20at%209.11.31%20AM.png" alt="">
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Record share of seniors in workforce: CommSec's Craig James

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The world of work has become an increasingly difficult environment for young people. Youth unemployment in Australia is persistently higher than for other age groups.
In response, our governments have delivered one-size-fits-all policies that focus on national targets encouraging education programs to make unemployed young people more “work ready”.
These approaches assume that, with the right education or training, a young person will be able to get a job. However, this is not the case, especially for young people who live in areas of high youth unemployment.
To reduce youth unemployment, education and labour market policies must go beyond a focus on individual young people to offer solutions at a community level.
Rural and regional areas hit hardest
Youth unemployment has been a feature of developed economies since the 1980s. As the Australian economy continues to open to global competitive pressures, the decline in the availability of manufacturing work and the growth of the services sector have changed the nature of work.
However, as recent research has highlighted, youth unemployment rates vary in different places and local communities.
Rural and regional areas are among the hardest hit by these changes. Places such as outback Queensland and the New South Wales Hunter Valley have youth unemployment rates of 28 percent and 22 percent respectively.
These levels of youth unemployment reflect these regions’ reliance on industries that are changing rapidly and may no longer provide reliable local employment.
These powerful shifts are not adequately recognised at a policy level.
Policies targeted at youth currently encourage the development of individual human capital. This takes place through a one-size-fits-all approach focused on increasing levels of educational qualification, with the promise that young people will find professional work.
This kind of future is not available to all young people, no matter how “work ready” they may be, especially for those in areas with high youth unemployment.
Again, these policies ignore the reality of the forms of work available in different local communities.
Does this matter in a world where young people are encouraged to be as mobile as possible in search of work and a fulfilling future?
The answer to this question is a resounding yes, for reasons connected with the role of local communities in shaping young people’s identities and pathways through work.
The critical role of local communities
Australian and international research has shown the critical role that processes of identity construction play both in young people’s engagement with work and in the strategies they use to survive unemployment.
Rural and regional young people are key examples of this process. Research has demonstrated the importance of local community connections for young people’s orientation towards their future in work. This applies even to those whose imagined futures take them beyond the boundaries of their local communities.
In one example from this research, a young man who imagines a future as a teacher described his plans in terms of existing family connections to the profession and the availability of accommodation with family members who lived close to the nearest regional university.
This process, in which young people imagine futures around established community connections and ways of life, is common in regional areas. While schools encourage young people to plan their own individual futures, the lives of relatives and other community members continue to shape their desires and perceptions of what is possible for them.
Community support in tough times
These communities may also be zones of high youth unemployment. Research conducted in former manufacturing centres of the UK with high unemployment shows that local community relationships provide critical support when times are tough. These local networks may also provide access to casual employment.
However, these communities operate as both resources and limits to young people’s biographies. The resources they offer may not provide opportunities beyond their local place, and young people may be personally invested in forms of work that reflect the history of their community. For example, young men may aspire to futures in manufacturing that are no longer locally available.
Similar <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.palgrave.com/us/book/9781403939326">results</a> have been found in rural Australia, where established expectations about suitable work may not reflect actually existing opportunities available to local youth.
As a consequence, people must re-evaluate who they are and who they can become. This re-negotiation of personal identity is a key aspect of navigating changing labour markets in areas of high youth unemployment.
A complex policy issue
Youth unemployment is a complex policy issue with no silver-bullet solutions. Simple approaches based on individual employability are destined to fail.
Local communities and young people themselves are grappling with rapid economic change.
To be successful, education and training programs must work with local communities alongside investment in regional economies aimed at creating new employment opportunities when established industries leave.
Only in this way can education and employment policies support young people to navigate regional Australia’s changing labour markets.
David Farrugia is lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Science, University of Newcastle and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-farrugia-243862" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Youth unemployment: local communities essential for helping young people find work

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GUEST OBSERVER
Today's jobs numbers were weaker than expected, with broadly flat jobs in February (market had +14k).
However, at the same time, the unemployment rate outperformed by falling to 5.8 percent (market had 6.0 percent), due to an unexpected sharp decline in the participation rate. Measurement issues have pervaded this survey making it difficult to get a clear reading. This is the third consecutive month of weak jobs growth, but this partly reflects pay-back for very strong numbers late last year.
Cutting through the noise, the trend measures show the unemployment rate is still below its peak, suggesting gradual labour market improvement. However, unemployment is still well above its full employment level, which is likely to continue to weigh on wages growth and domestic inflation, leaving the RBA with scope to cut further.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%202.58.35%20PM.png" alt="">
   Facts   Employment was broadly flat (up by just 300 jobs) in February (market expected +13.5k, HSBC expected +10k). Over the past six months, employment growth has averaged +20k a month. Annual employment growth has eased to 2.1 percent, down from a peak of 2.9 percent in November.   The participation rate fell by 0.3ppts to 64.9 percent, the lowest rate since June 2015.   Because of the drop in participation, the unemployment rate fell from 6.0 percent to 5.8 percent (the market and HSBC expected 6.0 percent).   - The employment-to-population ratio fell from 61.2 percent to 61.1 percent, the lowest level since October 2015.   Total hours worked fell by 0.1 percent m-o-m in seasonally-adjusted terms, and were up 2.2 percent y-o-y. Trend growth in hours worked slowed from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent y-o-y.   Implications   Australia's official labour force survey is still suffering from measurement issues that make it complicated to interpret the results. Jobs were broadly flat in February, following falls in the previous two months, but this was after very strong growth in employment in October and November last year. A large part of the recent weakness appears to be 'payback' for the over-stated strength last year. However, it is not easy to separate the signal from the noise.   One way to do this is to look at the trend measures within the official survey. These are showing gradual improvement in the labour market. The trend measure of the unemployment rate is at 5.8 percent, down from a peak of 6.3 percent in late 2014.
Another way to do this is to look at the collection of other indicators of the labour market, including job advertisements, job vacancies and hiring intentions in the business surveys. These are showing a more modest improvement in the labour market than is implied by the official numbers (see Figure 4 below).   The other key issue is that although the range of indicators suggests that there has been a trend improvement in the labour market, the pick-up has not been enough to absorb sufficient spare capacity to put upward pressure on wages growth and domestic inflation.
Combine this with underlying inflation that is already at the bottom edge of the target band, weak global inflation and a climbing AUD, and it is likely that inflation will remain low. We expect underlying inflation to fall below the bottom edge of the RBA's 2-3 percent target band in H1 2016. Our central case has the RBA easing by a further 25bps around the middle of this year.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%203.00.14%20PM.png" alt="" width="1256" height="562">
Paul Bloxham is chief economist (ANZ) for HSBC . Daniel Smith is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Jobs numbers were weaker than expected: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/65248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
What is the one thing that makes young people everywhere the most anxious? According to the Global Youth Wellbeing Index, it’s a lack of future economic opportunities.
Data from both the OECD and the Youth Wellbeing Index show Australian youth have had it better than just about any other country’s young workforce, but their prospects are also not so rosy.
It’s clear that the millennial cohort has drawn a short straw compared to earlier generations. A large majority (85 percent) of the world’s youth are experiencing low levels of wellbeing, the index notes.
But they aren’t getting much sympathy: a virulent anti-millennial sentiment has led to their derision as “generation jobless”.
It’s also worth considering how the youth of Australia have fared and expect to fare – because while the verdict has historically been excellent, there are disparities masked by the glossy big picture.
What about Australian young people?
As ample survey data now shows, Australian youth are fretting about their prospects, with lower income growth, overqualification, employment instability and crowding out from many key domains such as housing; all these factors together portend a more stressed generation.
Perhaps no statistic captures this better than the fact that one-quarter of young Australians say they are unhappy with their lives.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the number of youth that are “neither in employment, education or training” (often called “NEET”) has actually risen by 1.4 percent to 11.8 percent. This equates to 580,000 young people.
Inequality in education tends to be a driver of inequality in employment. Young Australians who have only a Year 10 Certificate are more than three times as likely to be unemployed as those with tertiary education.
There is also a clear disparity by gender. Young women are 50 percent more likely to be stuck in a NEET situation than men. This is well above the OECD average of 36 percent for gender disparity.
The problem is particularly prevalent among young Australian women caring for infants. This is why a lack of access to affordable child care and flexible working arrangements are two significant barriers that must be addressed.
There is also a racial aspect to youth employment. Indigenous youth NEET rates are more than three times higher than those of non-indigenous Australians. Part of the challenge in this regard stems from the weak labour markets in remote and very remote regions.
These disparities are often masked when Australia’s impressive overall record is compared with other countries. However, as the Parliamentary Budget Office of Canada has calculated, the economic situation for youth can worsen dramatically in a short time. It did for Canada’s proportion of underemployed youth, which swelled from 35 percent to 40 percent in less than five years. So the overall record for Australia could change soon too.
Sadly, in terms of the fear of a bleak economic future, young Australians are not that different from their peers abroad.
A universal fear
Around the world, nearly half the youth are unemployed or underemployed, while more than 120 million youth are still illiterate. So it is difficult to overstate the universality of this problem.
Is this because youth employment has received the least focus? Unemployment has historically taken a back seat to other core priorities towards the young.
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), for example, include the eradication of hunger, child mortality, illiteracy and disease – but there is no goal for unemployment or underemployment. It may be time to add another notch to these priorities, with a focus on developing strategies for engaging and employing youth.
The benefits if we achieved this goal are far from superficial. It is well documented that when youth are gainfully employed they are less likely to rely on social programs, less inclined to criminality, better engaged in civic life and better poised in their sense of personal wellbeing.
Usman W. Chohan is doctoral candidate, Policy Reform and Economics, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/usman-w-chohan-182272" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Young people worldwide fear a lack of economic opportunities – it’s easy to see why

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s population is estimated to have clocked 24 million during the March quarter.
The annual growth rate has been tracking around 1.4 percent for the past six quarters. It is quite a bit lower than the pre-GFC boom years when population growth was running around 2.0 percent pa. But it remains high by OECD standards and is considered to be a strong pace.
Robust population growth means the economy needs to be expanding at a faster rate than otherwise to achieve full employment. That of course means that the economy has the capacity to expand at a faster rate too.
The slowdown in Australia’s population growth rate is a contributing factor to why most estimates of trend growth for the economy have been lowered in recent years – both Treasury and the RBA have lowered their estimates of trend growth to be in 2 3⁄4 to 3 percent range.
In the short run, however, the economy can expand  above that pace because; (i) the unemployment rate is above the non-accelerating inflation  rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and can move lower; and (ii) productivity in the resources sector will continue to lift as production comes on stream. 
<a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" alt="">
The major driver behind Australia’s population growth continues to be net overseas migration (NOM). However, its contribution to growth has come down over the past few years. Both sides of federal politics favour high levels of immigration to partially offset some of the effects from the ageing of the population. It also allows the economy to grow at a faster rate than would otherwise be the case which boosts aggregate demand. And it has significantly boosted demand for housing which flows through to higher prices. 
The ‘grey army’ – those aged 65 and over – has continued to grow as a share of Australia’s population. The growth of this age cohort underpins the structural decline in labour force participation. The ageing of the population has increased the dependency ratio (the age-to-population ratio of those typically not in the labour force) which underpins the need for fiscal reform, particularly tax policy. 
The detail
Australia’s population is estimated to have risen by 328k in QI (+0.4 percent). The lift takes the population to 24.1 million as at March 2016. NOM was 181k in the year to March 2016,  up from 177k in the year to March 2015. But well down from the peak of 315k in 2008. 
<a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.18.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.18.28%20PM.png" alt="">
Population growth is well above the national rate in Victoria. This underpins very strong employment growth in the Garden State, robust residential construction and strong State Final Demand (SFD). It does little for per capita SFD growth, however. The decline in mining investment and associated downturn in mining-related employment has contributed to a sharp slowdown in WA’s population growth rate. 
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Table 1: Population growth – QI 2016 
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Gareth Aird is economist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Australia clocked 24 million people in the March quarter: CBA's Gareth Aird

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GUEST OBSERVER
From the outset it should be stated that the labour market is in pretty good shape. 
The unemployment rate remains at a 2½-year low and jobs are still being created. However it is pretty clear that there is a slowdown in hiring taking place. And the consolidation in employment is consistent with the softer conditions across the economy over the past couple of months.
Not only is has there been a fall in full time jobs over the past two months, but weakness in hoursworked is more telling. Hoursworked has fallen for the past three months and in annual terms is now down 0.5 per cent on a year ago. Now that may not sound like much but it is the first annual fall in hoursworked in almost three years. Interestingly in trend terms (a more smooth measure), employment may have risen for 29 consecutive months but the jobs growth of just 4,100 in April was the weakest in 19 months.
<a href="/images/2016/05/18/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-19%20at%203.47.50%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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After racking up almost 300,000 new jobs in 2015, there was likely to be inevitable period of consolidation. And the volatility in financial markets in the early part of 2016 was unlikely to see businesses commit to significant hiring. The fact that we are still adding jobs is a positive and while we expect employment to strengthen over 2016, it is likely that employers will be more circumspect in hiring given the upcoming Federal Election.
The Reserve Bank discussed the more mixed labour market signals at their last Board meeting ahead of cutting interest rates. Given the softer set of economic data no doubt policymakers will place more emphasis on labour market data in coming months.
The Reserve Bank will be hoping for a lift in activity levels particularly once the election gets out of the way. The key will be the inflation data, due on July 27. A super low inflation result would allow the Reserve Bank to contemplate another rate cut – in effect asking the question whether the economy could run at a faster pace without creating asset bubbles. We expect rates to be cut once again in August.
What do the figures show?
Labour force:
Employment rose by 10,800 in April after rising by 25,700 in March (previously reported as a rise in jobs of 26,100). Full-time jobs fell by 9,300 while part-time jobs rose by 20,200. Economists had tipped a 20,000 increase in jobs.
Hours worked fell by 1.1 per cent in April. Hoursworked are down by 0.5 per cent over the year – marking the first annual decline in hoursworked in almost 3 years.
The unemployment rate held steady at a 2½-year low of 5.7 per cent in April (lowest since September 2013). The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.8 per cent to 5.7 per cent – a 31-month low.
The participation rate eased from 64.9 per cent to 64.8 per cent.
A total of 244,700 jobs were added over the year to April. The annual growth rate rose from 2.0 per cent to 2.1 per cent. In trend terms, employment has risen for 29 consecutive months although the jobs growth of 4,100 in April was the weakest in 19 months.
The working age population rose by 21,700 in April. The working age population rose by 288,900 over the past year. The working age population is up 1.5 per cent over the past year.
Unemployment across states in April: NSW 5.3 per cent (March 5.3 per cent); Victoria 5.6 per cent (5.7 per cent); Queensland 6.5 per cent (6.2 per cent); South Australia 6.8 per cent (7.1 per cent); Western Australia 5.6 per cent (5.5 per cent); Tasmania 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent). In trend terms unemployment in the Northern Territory rose from 4.4 per cent to 4.5 per cent; ACT unemployment fell from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
Jobs across states and territories in April: NSW +8,400; Victoria +100; Queensland -5,600; South Australia +5,400; Western Australia +700; Tasmania unchanged. Trend terms: Northern Territory -100; ACT unchanged.
Why is the data important?
The Labour Force estimates are derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics. The population survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently about 22,800 houses, flats, etc.) and a sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.). The survey covers about 0.24 per cent of the population of Australia and includes all people over 15 years of age, except defence personnel.
If more people are employed, then there is greater spending power in the economy. But at the same time companies may adjust the work hours of employees. If employees work less hours, and therefore get paid less, then spending power in the economy is reduced.
What are the implications?
Labour market conditions have certainly improved over the past 18 months; business conditions are healthier; profitability has improved; and more importantly the housing sector is providing significant support to an array of industries. However the upcoming election has resulted in a more cautious tone across the economy.
The fact that the national unemployment rate is holding at 5.7 per cent – the lowest levels in 2½ years – will provide a big boost to confidence amongst Aussie consumers. And as we saw over the latter part of 2015, job security plays a big part in household consumption. However with a lack of wage growth, household real incomes could face pressure over the medium term and that is likely to be another reason why we expect that the Reserve Bank will contemplate another rate cut in August.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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